Daily Forex Analysis by Orbex

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 31/05/2016

The markets were slow yesterday with the US and the UK closed, but Gold prices continued to slide lower. With the $1200 psychological level holding out so far, we expect a near term bottom in place with gold prices likely to correct higher. EURUSD is also showing signs of exhaustion to the downside for the moment with 1.130 as the next level of resistance that could be targeted.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.115): EURUSD closed with a modestly bullish note yesterday following the strong bearish candlestick on Friday. The reversal is likely to see a near term retracement in prices, with 1.120 price level coming in as the first level that could be tested for resistance. On the 4-hour chart, price action is currently flat with a moderate rally in prices. The Stochastics has moved out of oversold levels. Only a clean break above 1.120 - 1.12170 and establishing support at this level will see further upside towards 1.1380 resistance zone.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (111.3): USDJPY continues to edge higher with price action now aiming for the 111.43 - 112.0 level of resistance. Unless prices go for a clean break above this resistance level USDJPY could be looking for a dip towards 107.95 - 108.0 support on a retracement. The 4-hour chart shows prices in the resistance zone currently with the Stochastics pointing to a hidden divergence near this resistance. 109.73 -109.35 will be the first support level of interest to the downside ahead of a correction to 108.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.471): GBPUSD is currently bullish, but prices are in the resistance zone of 1.4743 - 1.4720. Further continuation to the upside is possible only on a close above 1.4743 with a bullish candlestick pattern confirming further upside in prices. Support at 1.4461 - 1.4445 will be likely holding out any short term dips. Above 1.4743, the next resistance is at 1.48.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1213): Gold prices fell through to test the 1200 support yesterday and with prices holding at this support so far, a near term rally cannot be ruled out. 1231.50 is the first level of resistance to the correction followed by 1264. On the 4-hour chart, 1214.80 is likely to act as a minor resistance level, and only a break above this resistance will see a continuation to the upside. To the downside, 1200 support could be tested if the 1214.80 resistance holds, but price action could stay flat. A break below 1200 could see gold prices fall towards 1180 - 1190 region.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 01/06/2016

Sterling slipped yesterday evening sharply on the release of new Brexit opinion polls, underlining the fact that the weeks ahead could likely see increase volatility in the cable. As a result, the yen strengthened and so did gold. Prices are currently consolidating ahead of a data deluge with manufacturing PMI's coming out.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.111): EURUSD continues to hover near the 1.110 support level with Monday's modest bullish price action failing to offer any meaningful upside bias. With the ECB meeting looming tomorrow (although not much is expected in terms of policy announcements), EURUSD is likely to remain cautious. On the 4-hour chart, price remains capped by the 1.1143 resistance level. The bias remains flat for now as long as 30 May lows of 1.1097 is not breached.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (110.6): USDJPY weakened following yesterday's release of the Brexit opinion poll which sent the sterling weaker. Price action is capped near the 111.5 - 111.0 resistance level and the daily chart continues to show the hidden divergence indicating a correction to the downside near 108. The break of the rising median line and below 110.67 will be key to trigger the downside correction in USDJPY. Short term support at 109.73 - 109.35 is one to watch for.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.448): GBPUSD fell sharply late yesterday after price action was seen consolidating near 1.4743 - 14635 resistance level for the past four days. Support at 1.4425 is now the next level of interest for prices. Failure to post a new high after prices rebounded off the 50 day EMA is something to bear in mind. Below 1.4425, next support at 1.42 will be of interest. On the 4-hour chart, price action is near the 1.4461 - 1.4445 support. Expect some consolidation above this support for the short term ahead of a test to 1.4425.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1213): Gold prices managed to close bullish yesterday which comes after prices briefly tested the $1200 psychological level the day before. On the 4-hour chart, we see a hidden divergence with price struggling to break above 1214.80 resistance. The downside could see another dip towards the 1206 region ahead of a move towards 1225 - 1230. Price action could likely test the 1200 support if the bearish momentum increases. Gold is expected to stay flat for the moment, unless the 1200 level is broken, in which case the declines could accelerate towards 1180.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 02/06/2016

The ECB meeting today will be the main catalyst for the EURUSD, which could either send the Euro above 1.1217, for a corrective move to 1.138 or a break below 1.1143 which could see further declines start to pile up. Gold prices are trading near a key short term resistance level, but the correction to 1250 remains in play, while USDJPY extends its declines for a test of support near the 107 - 108 price level.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.121):EURUSD was bullish yesterday, closing at a two day high of 1.1188. Early Asian trading today is showing EURUSD trading near the 1.120 support/resistance with the 4-hour resistance at 1.12170. Price action is likely to remain range bound within 1.1217 - 1.1143 ahead of the ECB's meeting later today. The bias to the upside opens up only on a daily close above 1.1217, for a move towards 1.138 resistance, while to the downside, below 1.1143, EURUSD could slide towards 1.10.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (108.9):USDJPY is posting a steady decline for the third consecutive day. Price action is currently trading at a 10-day low approaching the 108 support zone. On the 4-hour chart, the support level near 109.73 - 109.35 which managed to hold prices previously has given way leading to USDJPY declining. Support zone near 108 - 107.36 is a key price level to watch for a correction. Establishing support at this support zone could pave the way for a potential bullish move to the upside.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.442):GBPUSD extended its declines yesterday to test the 1.4425 support level. With the price now establishing a range near 1.4743 - 1.4425, GBPUSD could see flat price action in the near term unless one of the levels gives way. Below 1.4425, the next main level will be at 1.42. On the 4-hour chart, prices have cleared the 1.446 - 1.4445 support level. A pullback to establish resistance here will see a decline down to 1.4358 - 1.435 support level.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1215):Gold prices closed bearish yesterday after an attempt to rally off the 1200 level. Price action on the 4-hour chart shows gold back near the 1214.80 support/resistance level, with the next main resistance at 1225. In the near term, gold is likely to see a correction to 1250, provided prices can manage to close above the 1225 - 1230 support level which is now likely to act as resistance. To the downside, 1200 will be likely that it will be tested again.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 03/06/2016

With the ECB meeting failing to offer any support to the euro yesterday, the markets now look forward to the NFP report today. Of particular interest is the potential and still evolving head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart, with the neckline resistance at 1.1217. A reversal at current lows near 1.1143 to form the right shoulder and a subsequent break above the 1.1217 resistance could see the euro extend gains to 1.1330.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.115): The ECB presser did not help the euro much yesterday as prices posted a 4-day high at 1.1219 before closing bearish for the day. EURUSD is now back to the lower end of the range at 1.1143. With the US NFP reporting coming out later, this ranging price action is likely to see a breakout of prices and could potentially establish the direction for the near term. Price action shows that the momentum has been stalling to the downside, but further declines can be seen if the euro breaks out strongly below 1.1143 and closes below the recent, 30 May low of 1.1097. This would extend the declines towards the next psychological support at 1.10. Also worth mentioning in the inverse head and shoulders patterns that are playing out on the EURUSD with the neckline resistance at 1.1217, the left shoulder formed near 1.1145, the same level where prices are looking to reverse right now to form the right shoulder and the head low near 1.1098.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (108.8): USDJPY posted a 12-day low yesterday testing 108.525 before pulling back slightly higher. The dollar has now been falling for three straight days against the yen. Support at 108 - 107.5 remains a key level of interest as prices inch lower. Any retracements could be facing resistance near 109.73 - 109.35 and only a close to the upside above 109.73 will validate the bias to the upside.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.441): GBPUSD closed flat yesterday at the support of 1.4425, despite some intraday volatility. GBPUSD could remain range bound above 1.4425 - 1.4635 in the near term and only a breakout from this sideways range will see further direction being established. On the 4-hour chart, with the reversal seen near the resistance of 1.4461 - 1.4445, support at 1.4358 - 1.435 could come into question. To the upside, only a clean break above 1.44610 resistance could see GBPUSD extend its gains back towards 1.4596 and eventually to 1.4647.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1211): Gold prices were seen weaker for the past two days after a brief attempt at posting a local high on 1st of June. However, with the previous lows around 1200 not yet breached, gold could see a near term retracement towards 1231. On the 4-hour chart, resistance at 1214 is clearly capping the gains in gold and this level could be breached on a strong fundamental catalyst, such as the NFP today. Failure to break above 1214 could keep gold range bound within 1214 and 1200.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 06/06/2016

The dollar fell sharply on Friday following the weak jobs report for May, but as the markets opened today, there is evidence that the dollar could be seen retracing some of its gains, leading to a pullback in the EURUSD, USDJPY and gold prices in the near term. Today's main event risk will be speeches from Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, and FOMC voting member, Eric Rosengren.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.133): EURUSD closed sharply higher on Friday, posting a two-week high above 1.1368 after price action validated the H4 inverse head and shoulders pattern. Currently, we see a bearish divergence on price and the pullback could see EURUSD slide towards 1.1216 to retest the broken resistance level of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Establishing support here could keep the bias to the upside for a move to 1.138 - 1.140 resistance zone. Alternately, failure to find support at 1.1216 could see EURUSD slide back into the support level.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (106.9): USDJPY slid below 107.5 level on Friday but so far prices have managed to make a higher low. As long as the previous low near 106.2 - 105.5 is not breached, the bias remains to the upside, provided USDJPY can break out above the 107.5 - 108 level of support. On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is attempting to retrace its declines with 107.36 coming in as the first level of resistance that could keep prices pressured to the downside. Only a close above this level could see USDJPY moving into a sideways price action.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.438): GBPUSD is currently trading below 1.4425 support level, gapping lower on today's open. Prices have briefly tested the 1.435 - 1.4358 support level briefly but a confirmed close at this support could see the momentum turn back to the upside. Watch the unfilled gap which could be likely closed this week if the support holds.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1242): Gold prices are currently bearish following Friday's gains to 1243 levels. The bias remains to the upside with gold breaking out from the falling median line. A retest of the breakout level could see gold prices test back the 1230 - 1225 region ahead of further upside towards 1250 and finally to the 1258 - 162 level of resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 07/06/2016

The US dollar was muted to Yellen's speech in Philadelphia yesterday, but the doji candlesticks on EURUSD and Gold signal a near term correction in prices. In EURUSD, watch for a pullback to 1.120 region, while gold prices could fall back to 1230 - 1225 support level. With the remainder of the calendar light for the US dollar, markets could remain in a consolidation ahead of next week's FOMC and BoJ meetings.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.135): EURUSD closed with a doji yesterday and a bearish follow through today could see prices starting to pull lower. Price tested the resistance levels of 1.14 - 1.1380 yesterday. We currently see a strong hidden bearish divergence in EURUSD with the current lower highs in prices. Correction in the EURUSD could see prices test previous major support at 1.12170. The EURUSD bias remains sideways for the moment.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (107.8): USDJPY was bullish yesterday, but price action is yet to signal the shift to the upside. A daily close above 108 is essential in order to expect more upside in USDJPY. There is also a bullish divergence showing on the daily charts but needs to be confirmed only when prices can close above 108. On the 4-hour chart, the strong pullback seen since yesterday comes with the risk of prices breaking down lower with the hidden divergence in play. Above 108, USDJPY could move into a sideways range below 109.35.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.447): GBPUSD was trading weaker yesterday, but prices managed to hold above 1.44250 support. However, the multiple tests of support near 1.4358 - 1.435 resulted in prices being rejected strongly and was followed by a move above the near term support/resistance at 1.4461 - 1.4445. Further upside could be seen to fill yesterday's gap near 1.4517. Establishing support at 1.4461 could see prices consolidate within 1.4647 - 1.44610.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1243): Gold prices closed in a doji yesterday following Friday's strong bullish run. The lower time frame chart shows a bearish divergence occurring which could pull prices lower to correct near the 1230 - 1225 broken resistance level which could be tested for support. To the upside, the correction should see a move towards 1250 followed by a test of resistance at 1262 - 1258 level. The correction to 1230 - 1225 is also seen on the H4 with the hidden divergence as prices make a lower high on the higher high in Stochastics.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 08/06/2016

The dollar crosses were fairly flat yesterday with the sterling being the exception. While EURUSD formed a doji the day before, prices remained range bound in yesterday's trading forming an inside bar which portends a breakout in the near term. Gold prices also stayed flat yesterday after testing intraday lows of 1234.95.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.136): EURUSD is trading within a range from Monday's price action, and the inside bar could trigger a near term directional bias set in. To the upside, a breakout above Monday's high at 1.1392 could trigger further upside towards the next main resistance at 1.147 while to the downside, a breakout below 1.1325 could see EURUSD slide towards 1.130 immediate support followed by 1.120. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart is currently trending lower after reaching the overbought levels and could signal a near term correction to the downside.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (107.0): USDJPY is seen trending lower earlier today after prices failed to break above 108.0 minor resistance. However, the daily chart shows the Stochastics pointing to a bullish divergence which could see a potential break to the upside. Failure to close above 108 could see USDJPY fall back towards 2nd May lows of 106.14. On the 4-hour chart, 107.36 will be the first hurdle that needs to be cleared in order for USDJPY to eventually move towards 108.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.455): GBPUSD closed bullish yesterday after prices established support at 1.44250. Further upside is expected only on a conclusive break above 1.4635 followed by 1.4743. On the 4-hour chart, the price action volatility is clearly seen with GBPUSD trading within the larger range below 1.4647 and above 1.4358.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1247): Gold prices are looking to push higher follow two consecutive days of trading flat. The 1250 handle will be likely holding price rallies to the upside, but the hidden bearish divergence on the 4-hour chart signals a potential correction to 1230 - 1225 levels. In the near term, gold could remain range bound, but the further upside is expected only on a conclusive close above the 1250 handle if prices fail to pullback to establish support at 1230 - 1225.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 09/06/2016

Failure to make a convincing close following the inside bar, EURUSD's rising wedge pattern signals consolidation but opens the risk for a decline to 1.121 support that was broken during last Friday's NFP report. Gold prices are now at the resistance level of 1262 - 1264 and could see a near term correction to the downside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.139): EURUSD attempted to breakout from the inside bar's range from Monday's price action, but the breakout is not quite convincing unless we see a strong follow through today. Failure to close above Monday's range high of 1.1392 could signal a move back into the range keeping prices sideways in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, the price action is seen consolidating into a rising wedge pattern and a bearish divergence at the same time, which points to a possible downside breakout in prices. Closing below 1.138 could signal EURUSD to extend declines back to 1.12170 resistance which was broken and could now be tested for support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (106.7): USDJPY has slowed in its momentum, but with prices trading below 108 resistance, the downside risks could see further declines down to previous lows near 106.23. However, price action is currently hovering near a developing support level at 106.50 region. A continued bullish rally from this support could see 107.36 being challenged and could give way to further upside, towards 108 resistance. However, USDJPY could continue to remain directionless unless price breaks above 108, for a move to 109.35 - 109.73 region. To the downside, a breakout below 106.53 could signal further downside with 106 and a possible test to 105 levels being very likely.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.451): GBPUSD has been stuck above 1.4425 support and 1.4635 resistance with prices trading within Tuesday's range high and low. We expect this range bound price action to remain in place, and further gains or declines are likely to come by the fundamentals. On the 4-hour chart, the ranging price action is more clearly defined with the resistance seen at 1.4668 - 1.4647 and support at 1.4461 - 1.4445 levels.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1262): Gold prices surged above 1250 levels, but price action is clearly trading near the resistance level of 1264 and 1262. Failure to break above this region could see gold prices poised for a dip towards 1231 support. The 4-hour chart shows the steep rising wedge pattern with prices capped near the 1262.65 resistance. The most recent H4 session candlestick closed in a doji and considering that this occurred near the resistance level indicates a potential correction lower. 1230 - 1225 is the support zone of interest that could hold prices while above 1262.65, further upside could see gold test 1271 - 1272 resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 10/06/2016

Gold, despite the recent bullish momentum, is carving out a bearish head and shoulders pattern with the neckline resistance at 1208 - 1210. A break below this level could extend declines towards 1100. On the lower time frame, while EURUSD broke out from the rising wedge pattern, gold continues to consolidate within the rising wedge, but a potential break down looks imminent.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.129): EURUSD broke out to the downside on the inside bar formed earlier this week, albeit a brief push to the upside. But a follow through is required for prices to close bearish today, especially with the 50 day EMA looming as support near 1.1268. A close below this level could signal further downside to 1.120. On the 4-hour chart the declines have been validated by the rising wedge pattern but minor support at 1.1286 - 1.1292 will likely see a short term bounce. Failure to hold out as support could extend EURUSD declines to 1.12170. To the upside, watch for a retracement back to 1.1368 - 1.1380 region.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (107.1): USDJPY saw a rejection near the lows of 106.53 and closed in a modestly bullish note. Further upside is however needed to confirm the move to the upside, especially with resistance at 108 - 107.95 looming overhead. Clearing this resistance could signal further upside with 110.0 resistance level coming into focus. Alternately, a bearish close below the 106.5 lows could signal further downside to 105.210 support.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.445): GBPUSD has been falling for two consecutive days and price action is likely to head back to Monday's close above the support at 1.4425. A break below this support could extend GBPUSD declines towards 1.4358 - 1.4350 lower support level. However, watch for a possible breakout of the falling median line on the 4-hour chart which could signal a possible rally back to the upper resistance at 1.4647 - 1.4660.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1266): Gold prices extended their gains for the second day with price close above the 1264 handle. Further upside could still keep the bearish bias in gold with the next level to be challenged at 1290. To the downside, support at 1230 needs to clear for a decline lower. Also, note the possible head and shoulders pattern being formed on the daily chart in gold with the neckline support coming in at 1208 - 1210, which if breaks could signal a correction towards 1112 - 1098 levels. On the 4-hour chart, the rising wedge pattern remains in play and gold prices could start their declines. But there is a risk of prices pushing to 1271 - 1272 level of resistance. Support comes in at 1250 followed by 1230 - 1225.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 13/06/2016

The markets opened today on a mixed note with GBPUSD extending declines including the euro, on a stronger US dollar. However, the yen remains in favor with USDJPY seen testing the 106 levels yet again. With no major scheduled releases due today, expect a sideways consolidation in the near term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.124): EURUSD has extended the declines for two days following the brief attempt to break out to the upside off last Monday's inside bar. Price action is likely to extend its declines lower to 1.120 support as a result. On the 4-hour chart, the minor support at 1.1292 - 1.1286 failed to hold price following which prices continues to trend lower. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD could slide into the support zone at 1.1217 - 1.1143 support zone. Any corrections would likely be limited to 1.1292 - 1.1286 which could now act as resistance.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (106.1): USDJPY is trending lower again following the brief test to 107.95 - 108.0 minor resistance. Price action is now trading back in the support level established by the previous lows in early May of 10627 - 105.210. Failure to reverse near these lows could extend USDJPY declines to 105.00. The 4-hour time frame shows a descending triangle breakout below the support at 106.53 - 106.550, which validates the possible decline down to 105.00. Minor support at 106.00 could offer a short-term bounce, but the upside is limited unless USDJPY rallies back above 106.53 - 106.550.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.418): GBPUSD extended its declines down to 1.420 support late Friday before pulling back higher, but price action is seeing a follow through. Below 1.420, next support at 1.4053 comes into question. Any corrections could be limited to the minor support near 1.4350 - 1.43580 levels.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1274): Gold prices are looking bearish today following the close above the $1270 level. Support at 1230 - 1225 remains a key level to watch for as the upside looks limited for the moment. On the 4-hour chart time frame, the rising wedge pattern continues to play out provided gold can break below the 1274 - 1272 minor resistance level. To the downside, ahead of 1230 - 1225, the 1250 support could offer a near-term bounce, leaving gold to move sideways within 1274 and 1250 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 15/06/2016

The Federal Reserve will be releasing its monetary policy statement, economic projections and holding a press conference later today. The markets remain jittery ahead of the meeting, but the attention is on USDJPY, which will later see the BoJ meeting early tomorrow. EURUSD is showing signs of a recovery to 1.138 - 1.140 while GBPUSD looks poised for a short-term retracement to 1.44. Gold has stalled near 1289 - 1290 levels but risks a decline to 1220 - 1230 levels.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.120): EURUSD fell to 1.120 support yesterday, and price action shows that we could expect to see a bounce off this level. The upside is limited with the bounce off 1.120 likely to see EURUSD retrace back to 1.1380 - 1.140 which will mark a correction and also establish resistance at the level which was briefly tested earlier in June. To the downside, below 1.120, the next main support comes in at 1.110. Above 1.140, EURUSD could see further gains but could move sideways within 1.14975 - 1.1520 resistance level.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (106.1): USDJPY has been trading within 106.27 - 105.60 support for the past two days with prices being rejected near the lower end of the support. Any bounce off this support could see USDJPY test the resistance near 108.0 - 107.850 levels. On the 4-hour chart, price action is showing signs of shifting bias to the upside, but will be valid only on a close above the minor resistance at 106.5 - 106.70 level. To the downside, a close below 105.60 could see USDJPY slide lower to 105.35 - 105.00 support.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.413): GBPUSD extended its declines yesterday, but prices managed to close above the previous day's doji low at 1.4115. We could, therefore, expect to see a follow through here, with a close above 1.420 likely to see a near term rally towards 1.44250 to establish resistance on what was a support level previously. To the downside, in the event of a break below 1.4115, further declines are seen towards 1.40530 support. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD has marked a reversal with a doji and a close above 1.41482 could signal a near-term retracement in GBPUSD.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1284): Gold prices continue to remain biased to the upside with prices posting a high above 1289 yesterday. A follow through here could see gold prices likely to push higher on a close above 1290 - 1300 level, but the strong momentum led rally is likely to show signs of exhaustion. To the downside, support at 1230 - 1220 remains key to validate any further moves to the upside. With prices trading at resistance, gold could see a near term correction lower with minor support levels at 1273 - 1271 followed by the 1250 psychological support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 16/06/2016

Gold prices are back at the $1300 handle as the FOMC, and the BoJ stood on the sidelines. However, the upside in gold is looking weak, unless price breaks clear of the $1300 - $1303 handle. The USDJPY is currently posting fresh yearly lows after the BoJ left policy unchanged at today's meeting. EURUSD was limited in its gains yesterday despite the FOMC holding policy steady which could see prices trade sideways in the near term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.126): EURUSD bounced off the 1.120 support level and looks to be ranging within 1.130 and 1.120 levels. The minor resistance at 1.130 - 1.1285 was tested briefly yesterday with prices being rejected at this level. A break above 1.130 is required for EURUSD to extend its gains towards 1.1380. To the downside, prices are likely to remain range bound above 1.1217 levels. A break below this support could see EURUSD test the lower end at 1.11430. We could, therefore, expect EURUSD to remain range bound in the near term with further gains or declines coming on a break of the respective resistance or support levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (104.3): USDJPY has broken down below 105.60 - 106.27 support levels on the daily chart and price action is now trading closer to 104.50 levels. The further downside could see USDJPY extend its declines to 104 lows. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics is pointing to a possible bullish divergence but needs to be confirmed. A correction here could see USDJPY retrace some of its declines.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.418): GBPUSD managed to find support near 1.4113 at the doji's low formed three days ago. However, resistance at 1.42 is proving hard to break out from which could keep GBPUSD hovering sideways in the near term. Only a break above 1.42 could extend gains towards 1.4425 levels. To the downside, declines could be limited to 1.40530. On the 4-hour chart, we can see that GBPUSD has been forming a base near 1.4148 - 1.41170 support which could limit the declines for now while price could test the resistance to 1.435 on a break above 1.420.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1300): Gold is currently testing the $1300 handle and marks 6-straight days of gains. Further upside could see gold moving towards the 1310 - 1320 resistance levels while the downside looks limited with prices trading above the 1290 - 1291 resistance level, which could be tested for support on a dip. In the near term, 1303 - 1300 marks a strong resistance, which was previously formed in early May and further upside can be expected only on a break above this minor resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 17/06/2016

In a volatile trading session, gold prices broke above 1300 yesterday to rise to 1315 but pulled back sharply. A bearish follow through from here could see near-term declines. The GBPUSD and the EURUSD were volatile as well with both the euro and the sterling seen testing 1.120 and 1.4117 levels of support and could push higher. USDJPY, while falling below 104 has pulled back and could remain sideways ahead of next week's UK referendum vote on the EU membership.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.125): EURUSD briefly attempted to break out below 1.120 support but closed the day above the support level, making it increasingly possible for EURUSD to remain range bound within 1.130 and 1.120 resistance and support levels. Ahead of 1.130 resistance, the minor resistance at 1.293 - 1.2860 has been containing price rallies so far. A break above this minor resistance could see EURUSD rally towards 1.130 and potentially extend gains to 1.1380 - 1.140 major resistance.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (104.3): USDJPY fell to new lows yesterday, briefly dipping below 104.0, but prices have since then pulled back to close the day at 104.26. To the upside, USDJPY needs to clear above 105.6 - 106.27 minor resistance to validate any upside bias, while to the downside, USDJPY could remain range bound trading above the 104.0 handle. A break below 104 could extend declines further but could remain choppy. So far, the support at 104.50 - 104.0 has managed to hold and could contain prices near this level in the near term.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.428): GBPUSD closed with a doji pattern yesterday after falling below 1.4053 briefly. Failure to close below 1.4114 indicates the price level acting as a strong support within 1.4114 - 1.4053. To the upside, resistance at 1.4425 remains key, and a break above this resistance could extend further gains. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD could potentially point to a move to 1.435 - 1.436 minor resistance level if the current pullback stalls at the previous support near 1.4148 - 1.41170 levels.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1284): Gold prices declines sharply yesterday after testing new 2016 highs of 1315. The daily chart head and shoulders pattern remains in play, but the further downside is required to validate the move to 1230 - 1225 initial support. On the 4-hour chart, prices are back below the 1290 - 1291 resistance level which could be tested yet again. Establishing resistance here could signal further downside, initially to 1273 - 1270 followed by 1262 - 1260 support. Alternately, a close above 1290 - 1291 could signal a potential move to the upside with the likelihood that $1300 act as a new floor for gold prices.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 21/06/2016

GBPUSD remains trading flat, but price action indicates a near term correction, following the rally yesterday to test the resistance at 1.4668 - 1.46470. The markets look to another day of quiet trading except Janet Yellen's speech that could see some movements. EURUSD has pulled back following the test of resistance to 1.1380 but remains trading flat on the longer term horizon.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.133): EURUSD closed bearish following the up gap on Monday as prices failed to break above the resistance near 1.140 - 1.1380. The ranging price action is likely to continue in the near term with the downside to 1.1294 - 1.1280 support likely to be tested in the near term. Below 1.1280 support, EURUSD could fall back to the previous support at 1.1246 - 1.12350 lower support level. The sideways price action is likely to continue with a break above out 1.140 or below 1.1235 likely to set further directional bias.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.9): USDJPY closed bearish yesterday with prices inching closer to the 104 level, just below the identified support at 104.50 - 104.00 region. A break below 104.00 could keep USDJPY subdued for further downside, to 103 and perhaps to 102.0, lower support level. The 4-hour chart shows the Stochastics currently posting a higher low against the lower low in prices. In the event of a break above 104.50, further upside could see USDJPY test 106.50 minor resistance.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.466): GBPUSD has been bullish for the past two days following the doji candlestick pattern near 1.420. Price action has managed to close above 1.4635 and is trading at the major resistance level of 1.4743 - 1.4635. Only a break higher could trigger further upside in GBPUSD while in the near term, the weakening momentum could see some sideways price action. On the 4-hour chart, price action has stalled near 1.4668 - 1.4650 resistance level as noted, and could slip towards 1.4461 - 1.4445 lower support in the near term.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1286.28): Gold prices remain trading within a range and price action has formed an inside bar, but caught below the 1300 resistance level. In the near term, gold prices could see a decline to lower support at 1273.75 - 1271.00, but the bias remains flat. A potential break above 1291 could, however, trigger further upside in gold prices.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 22/06/2016

Gold prices might be looking weaker on the daily and weekly time frame, but the 4-hour chart shows a bullish pennant pattern which could signal further upside in gold. With the UK referendum vote due in less than a day, gold prices could remain in a range with the likelihood of a move in either direction. $1250 remains the key support which needs to be broken to establish the downside bias in gold, while above $1300, gold prices could see further gains in store.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.126): EURUSD has closed two consecutive days on a bearish note with the price action in the form of a shooting star. The 1.130 level is clearly acting as resistance and could see prices capped to the downside. On the 4-hour chart, as expected, EURUSD fell back to the lower support near 1.1246 - 1.1234 support with the most recent price action forming a doji followed by a bullish close later on. This could indicate a near-term ranging price action between 1.138 and 1.125 levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (104.5): USDJPY managed to close on a bullish note yesterday and also formed an outside bar on the daily chart. With the range of 105.06 and 103.58 being established, further price action is likely to be determined on a breakout above or below this range. Support near 104.5 and 104.0 will be likely to hold out for the near term while 106.538 remains a key resistance level of interest in USDJPY, which could be targeted on a close above 105.06 levels. Below 103.58, USDJPY risks moving lower towards the 103 round number support.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.468): GBPUSD remains range bound within 1.4743, and 1.4635 on the daily chart and the volatility is only likely to pick up from here on. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD remains well supported above the minor resistance at 1.466 - 1.464 which is now acting as support and could keep prices poised for further upside towards 1.485. To the downside, a break below 1.464 could trigger sharp declines down to 1.446 and 1.4445 with the risk of a leg lower towards 1.435 where the Monday's up gap remains unfilled.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1268.95): Gold prices posted sharp declines yesterday with the 1291 resistance keeping a lid on the rallies. To the downside, the next main support is seen near the 1250 round number support. With gold prices clearing below the 1273 minor support level further declines are likely. Alternately, to the upside, resistance near 1290 could be tested in the near term and above $1300 the gains are limited unless gold prices establish support here. There is also a scope for a possible bullish rally with the 4-hour chart showing a bullish pennant pattern which, if validated could see further upside in gold if prices clear above the 1307 resistance high formed last week.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 23/06/2016

UK polls open today at 0700 UK time and could see an initial knee-jerk reaction on the GBP and EUR. That said, the GBP remains at risk of a significant pullback, while the euro remains range bound within 1.120 and 1.130. Not much can be expected today, but volatility could start to pick up once the polling closing time edges closer at 2200 UK time. Poll results will be published from early June 24th, 0100 and could see strong volatility alongside weaker liquidity.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.133): EURUSD has reversed its previous losses and remains trading at Monday's open near 1.13359. Further upside is likely if support is found near 1.130 and the previous minor resistance high at 1.1392 from 6 June remains a key level, which if broken could see EURUSD extend gains towards 1.140 - 1.1470. Overall, EURUSD remains range bound within 1.14 and 1.13 as noted in yesterday's note and the breakout could coincide with the release of the UK's referendum results tomorrow at 0900 UK time.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (104.6): USDJPY remains range bound, now into its fifth day and trades below the key broken support at 105.6 - 106.27 which could act as resistance. On the 4-hour chart, prices have established a base near 104.5 - 104.0 level, leaving room for a short term correction to the identified resistance level. A break above 106.27 is essential for USDJPY to seek out further gains targeting the next minor resistance at 107 and eventually to 109 if prices can fall back to establish support near 106.270. To the downside, a break below 104 could see USDJPY turn bearish, targeting 103 and 102 round number supports.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.479): GBPUSD continues to push higher, but the current break above 1.4743 - 1.4635 resistance zone does not look convincing enough. There is a risk of a dip back to 1.4425 level through 1.43605, which marks the unfilled gap from this Monday's price action. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD has been consolidating into a rising wedge pattern that could see a breakout lower. Support at 1.4668 - 1.4647 remains key in this aspect as a break below this support could see further downside to the identified lower support levels as well as 1.4360.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1263.90): Gold prices continue to edge lower marking a two day decline, but the slowing momentum is indicative of a possible short term correction. Prices remain capped below $1300 which could act as a strong resistance level. On the 4-hour chart, gold remains trading within the falling wedge pattern with prices trying to establish support at 1262. A breakout above 1273 will be needed for gold prices to extend their gains towards 1290 region, failing which; further downside can be expected with 1250 in sight.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 24/06/2016

Markets plunge as Britons voted to leave the EU. Market volatility is likely to pick up in the aftermath of the EU referendum. Central bank speeches and further news flows are likely to keep the markets on the edge today. The sterling and the euro have been trending weaker already, and gold prices and the yen were seen rising as investors flock to safety.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.103): EURUSD is currently trading near the support of 1.10 after briefly touching 1.0927 support on the daily chart. Further declines are likely in the near term, but there is a possibility of a pullback to 1.1140 ahead of further declines. To the downside, a break below 1.0985 could signal further declines in the euro potentially towards 1.0562 - 1.05180 levels, last seen in mid November 2015.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.6): USDJPY rallied to the resistance level of 106.27 - 105.60 but with the resistance holding the gains, the currency has plunged and is now seen pulling back after a brief test to 98 - 99 levels. In the near term, USDJPY could see a pullback that could be limited to 102.35. Below 98, USDJPY could see a test to 96 levels. The yen pulled back after brief comments from BoJ Governor Kuroda and increased the likelihood of a central bank intervention, especially for the yen.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.333): GBPUSD has broken the neckline support of the multi-decade head and shoulders pattern. Any pullbacks are likely to be limited to 1.385 and could signal further downside to 1.30. Volatility is likely to continue over the coming days as negotiations on exiting the EU begin.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1328.78): Gold prices were seen testing 1350 levels following the breakout from the bullish pennant pattern. The downside is limited to 1310 support, but further upside can be expected towards 1371 as the minimum target.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 27/06/2016

The markets gapped lower this morning with the sterling in the eye of the storm. With the UK plunging into political uncertainty with many questions and few answers, the markets are bearing the brunt. Gold prices remain poised to the upside amid this uncertainty while the US dollar is mixed, stronger against most of its peers but weaker against the yen. USDJPY is looking biased to the downside and could potentially look at another go to breaking below the 100Yen level.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.102): EURUSD gapped lower this morning, opening at 1.1010 with a brief test to the support at 1.10 level. To the upside, the resistance at 1.1143 could be in for a retest yet again. To the downside, a break below 1.0985 is required for EURUSD to post further declines to 1.09 while the longer term declines could see an extended move to 1.08. If EURUSD manages to break above 1.1143 resistance, the further upside to 1.1217 could be tested. However, price action remains caught within 1.130 and 1.10 levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.9): USDJPY is attempting to find support near the 100 - 101 levels after a modest gap lower this morning. On the 4-hour chart, we notice a bearish pennant pattern being formed at the current levels. Support is seen at 101.25, and a break below this level could see USDJPY resume its declines. Based on the measured move, USDJPY could slip towards 98.25.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3404): GBPUSD remains weak to the downside, with prices opening this morning at 1.3427. There is a minor support seen at 1.3385 levels which will be key as a break below this level could see EURUSD slip towards 1.3350 and eventually to 1.330 in the near term. To the upside, any gains are likely to be capped near 1.3850.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1324.82): Gold prices remain biased to the upside following a pullback to 1317 on Friday. The bullish pennant pattern remains in play, and any downside is limited to 1310 - 1300 levels in the near-term while to the upside 1371 - 1372 remains the measured target. In the event of a break down below 1310 - 1300, gold prices could shift the bias to the downside with the next support at 1290 coming into the picture while also invalidating the bullish pennant pattern.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 28/06/2016

The US dollar was showing signs of weakness as the markets start to price in a Fed rate cut by September. This change in view saw the euro posting a modest recovery having established support at 1.10. Gold prices are also retreating in today's early Asian trading, and initial support is seen at 1310. The Sterling is attempting to retrace its gains and could potentially retest Friday's close at 1.3677. US GDP data is due later today and could change focus for the markets at least for a while.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.105): EURUSD formed a spinning bottom yesterday seeking support at 1.10 with the price action seeing a bullish follow through in early Asian trading today. The gains came after markets started pricing a Fed rate cut this year following the Brexit verdict. The Fed funds futures rate is now surprisingly pricing in a 17% rate cut by September, increasing from 7% on Friday. From a technical perspective, the euro has managed to establish support near 1.10 - 1.0985 support level and in the interim, price action remains caught above this support and below 1.1143 - 1.115 resistance levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.09): USDJPY also closed in a modestly bullish note yesterday with price seen to be stabilizing above 101.250 support. However, the 4-hour chart's bearish pennant pattern remains in play keeping the downside bias intact. The view shifts only in the event of a breakout above 103.130, in which case, USDJPY could be looking to move sideways below 104.50 - 105, but the further upside could be seen on a break above this resistance level.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.330): GBPUSD extended its declines yesterday and closed below Friday's lows to settle at 1.3224. Price action is currently attempting to move higher, but the upside is limited to the unfilled gap from Friday's close at 1.3677. On the 4-hour chart, resistance is seen at 1.3385, and further upside is likely only on a break out above this resistance. To the downside, with the lows being established, GBPUSD could remain limited in its declines for now.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1317.48): Gold prices are retreating after price action yesterday was largely flat resulting in a doji pattern. A bearish follow through today could see gold prices slide towards the 1300 - 1290 levels of support which previously acted as resistance prior to the breakout. The same view is seen on the 4-hour chart and increases the likelihood of gold prices sliding to the 1310 minor support initially. A close below 1310 - 1305 on the 4-hour time frame could extend gold's declines to 1290 and could limit the upside bias formed from the bullish pennant pattern.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 29/06/2016

The euro and the British pound posted a modest recovery yesterday while the yen weakened against the dollar following two days of intense selling. Without a follow through here, the recovery is likely to be short lived. For the EURUSD, a close above 1.11 is needed to test 1.120 resistance levels. In GBPUSD, the price needs to break out above 1.34 - 1.348 in order to fill last Friday's gap at 1.3677 while in USDJPY prices are caught within 103 - 101 range. Gold is easing back to $1300 support which could spell another leg to the upside if the support level is validated.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.106): EURUSD has established a range of 1.120 and 1.110 as the levels of resistance and support. While a retest of the resistance at 1.120 is pending, support has been clearly established at 1.10. The euro closed bullish yesterday, marking the second day of gains after last Friday's (23/06/16) selloff which saw the euro testing the lows of 1.0911 but resulting in a strong rejection with price action similar to the one seen on 10th of March 2016 (ECB meeting). On the 4-hour time frame, the levels from the daily chart are marked at 1.12, 1.10 with 1.11 likely to see consolidation. The declines could be limited to above the 1.10 support level which could maintain the upside bias and could gain a conviction on a bullish close above 1.110.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.3): USDJPY is reversing off the 102 support with price action posting two days of bullish close. A retest to 102.0 is likely to establish support with the daily chart showing USDJPY to move in the range of 106 - 102. The 4-hour chart shows USDJPY remaining in a consolidation mode. To the upside, above 103.0 minor resistance, USDJPY could look towards targeting 104 - 105 region, while a breakout below 101.267 - 101.0 could signal further downside for the dollar with the scope of a retest back to 99.0 level.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.331): GBPUSD has attempted to post a recovery yesterday and briefly tested highs above 1.340. The unfilled gap from Friday's close at 1.3677 still remains a ripe target if the upside strength gains conviction. For the moment, GBPUSD remains range bound within 1.34, and 1.32 with further gains or declines followed only after a break out off these levels. The support at 1.32 looks strong enough to keep a hold on the declines, which increases the probability of an upside breakout above 1.34 for a test to 1.36 and eventually 1.3677. In the longer term, GBPUSD could see further gains that could test 1.380. The inside bar formation yesterday could be an early indicator of a breakout from the range of 1.34884 - 1.34196 high and 1.32041 - 1.31211 low.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1317.72): Gold prices closed bearish yesterday closing at 1311.94. Prices remain caught within 1350 and 1300 levels on the daily chart. On the 4-hour time frame, gold has managed to find minor support at 1310 which saw a modest bounce. Price action needs to challenge the recent at 1328 - 1330 in order to extend the gains to 1350. While 1300 remains a key support of interest, there is scope for a move lower. A break below 1300 in gold could signal further downside to 1272.50 which would then mark the retest if the bullish pennant pattern breakout, but could also weaken the pattern.