Daily Forex Analysis by Orbex

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 29/03/2016

The US Dollar ended a 5-day winning streak yesterday as tepid PCE, and slower pace of consumer spending sent the US Dollar index to ease back from a 5-day high. Hawkish Fed speech continued but did little to help support the Greenback. The British Pound managed to make the most of a weaker Greenback yesterday with prices gaining 0.85% for the day. The Dollar is likely to stay subdued into Janet Yellen's speech due later this afternoon as investors await for clues on further course of action from the Federal Reserve.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.11): EURUSD managed to close with a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern on the daily chart after nearly 6-days of losing streak. Prices reversed off the lows near 1.1153. Further upside is likely provided 1.120 level of resistance is cleared in the near term which would keep EURUSD back inside the range of 1.13 - 1.12. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics has posted a higher high against price's lower high which indicates a short term decline lower. Support at 1.113 to 1.1105 is critical in this aspect.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (113.65): USDJPY has managed to close on a bullish note yesterday marking a 7-day bullish run. Price action remains biased to the downside however unless the resistance at 114.7 - 114.35 is cleared. Support at 112.5 will be in focus as a break below this level could send USDJPY lower to 111.31 support, keeping prices subdued.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD closed on a bullish note yesterday closing above the 1.420 handle. A dip back to 1.42 could establish support ahead of further gains to 1.4430. The current resistance at 1.4247 - 1.4263 will likely keep the gains capped with a test of support at 1.4025 - 1.40 showing the daily session's downside bias for a test of support.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1218): Gold prices managed to close bullish after a lower open yesterday. Prices closed near 1221 but the downside bias to 1200 remains. There is scope for Gold prices to post a rally towards the 1225 level of resistance ahead of the declines to 1200 which is likely to offer strong support, at least, the initial test to this level. The 4-hour chart currently shows a strong hidden bearish divergence which confirmed the downside bias.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 30/03/2016

Janet Yellen's dovish remarks yesterday sent the US Dollar weaker. Her comments starkly contrast the other Fed officials' speeches over the past few weeks which managed to support the US Dollar to make steady gains. Most of the USD crosses managed to rise higher following the Fed Chair's remarks, but the NFP data this Friday will likely be the next big event that markets will be looking forward to. A beat on the estimates could see the Dollar regain its bullish momentum but until then, markets could remain range bound.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD managed to reverse the losses over the past week with a strong bullish candlestick, which came after a bullish engulfing pattern. The upside is however limited as noted in yesterday's commentary with 1.130 resistance likely to hold ground. EURUSD could remain range bound at 1.13 and 1.12 levels into Friday's NFP report. Above 1.130, EURUSD could be looking at posting further gains towards 1.15 region, while to the downside, 1.110 and 1.10 will be the support levels to watch for.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (112.40): USDJPY formed a bearish engulfing pattern yesterday, and price action is likely to move lower. Watch 112.0 support to the downside. A break below 112.0 could see USDJPY move back to 17th March lows towards 110.6 - 111.0. The 4-hour chart shows the Stochastics likely to point towards a modest pullback in prices ahead of targeting the 112.0 support, but the upside remains limited for now.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.43): GBPUSD has enjoyed a second strong bullish day with prices closing near 1.438 and in the process the inverse head and shoulders pattern has been formed. A breakout above 1.443 will validate the move to the upside for a test to 1.4635 resistance. On the 4-hour chart, there is scope for a pullback to the recent rally formed by the doji candlestick pattern and a failure to establish support below. Any dips will see GBPUSD test the 1.4263 - 1.4247 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1236): Gold prices attempted to rally back to the $1250 handle, but price action has stalled near the 1246 - 1238 level of support/resistance. A daily close below 1238 would confirm the downside bias for Gold to test the $1200 level ahead of which, 1230 - 1225 will be an important test. A move to the $1200 is likely only on a break below this minor support level, and if prices fail to close below the previous low and instead form a higher low, Gold could remain range bound at 1225 - 1250 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 31/03/2016

The US Dollar continued to weaken through most of yesterday, but price action is showing signs of a modest retracement. GBPUSD formed a doji candlestick pattern yesterday and a bearish close today could see another leg to the downside. Gold prices sit near a support level making prices caught between a range, with the US NFP report due out tomorrow, the markets could likely move into a ranging pattern into the release.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD closed on a bullish note yesterday at 1.13378 recovering the losses from the previous week and settling above 1.130 level of resistance. Price action is seen to be currently pulling back, and a close below 1.13 could keep the currency range bound within 1.120. On the 4-hour chart, we notice price action potentially reversing near the median line and this could be confirmed on a close below 1.13, which will likely see further declines lower towards 1.120 where support could now be established. There is also a large triangle pattern that is forming which could see a potential move towards 1.1105 - 1.113 lower support if 1.12 gives way.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (112.26): USDJPY barely managed to test the 112.0 support yesterday, and we expect another dip back to confirm this support ahead of any further gains. If 112.0 support fails, USDJPY could potentially move lower towards 111.0 levels while to the upside, rallies will likely be stalled near the 50 period EMA, which currently sits near the horizontal confluence of 114 - 114.5 levels. On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY is below the 112.5 support which could open the way for a dip to 111.31 if 112.0 fails to hold prices.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.43): GBPUSD formed a doji candlestick pattern again yesterday near the 1.443 resistance. A bearish close today below yesterday's low of 1.436 could confirm another leg to the downside with a test back to 1.42 likely. On the 4-hour chart, short term support at 1.426 - 1.424 could offer a short term bounce, but a break below this level could see GBPUSD decline back lower to test the previous support at 1.4025 - 1.40 region.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1228): Gold prices reversed the previous day's gains with prices closing near 1223 following a test to 1240 - 1250 levels of resistance. Further downside is likely if price action moves closer and breaks the previous day's low. However, Gold is currently in the support level identified at 1230 - 1225, which could offer a short-term support. Only a break below this level will see further downside towards $1200.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/04/2016

The March payrolls and ISM manufacturing data were the big events last Friday. While the NFP was mixed, the ISM manufacturing posted a strong upside surprise, but the dollar was unimpressed closing Friday's session weaker. With a new week ahead, the US dollar could be looking to regain some lost ground in the near term, which should see a pullback across most of the USD crosses.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD closed Friday's session above 1.13 settling at 1.139. Price action closed with a small bodied candlestick pattern, and if today's session closes on a bearish note, we can anticipate a short-term correction lower. However, prices remain biased to the upside with the previously broken resistance at 1.13 now likely to turn into support. In the case of a dip below 1.13, 1.12 support comes into play next. To the upside, 1.147 which marks the 14th September 2015 higher close will be the next resistance level of interest.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (111.5): USDJPY slipped below 112.0 support on Friday closing with a strong bearish engulfing candlestick pattern which could indicate further downside. Prices are currently supported near the lows of 111.430 which was previously held on 17th March. A daily close below this level could see further downside, but in the event of a move above 112.0 USDJPY could see some of the losses being reclaimed. On the 4-hour chart, resistance can be seen at 112.0 - 112.50 levels and an upside bias will be built only on a close above this resistance level for a test to 114.35 - 114.7.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD closed Friday's session on a bearish note following the two doji candlesticks earlier in the week near 1.4425 resistance. Minor support at 1.42 was briefly tested on Friday, but we expect to see a further test back to this level. On the 4-hour chart, with the support level being cleared at 1.4263 - 1.4247, GBPUSD could see a continued downside move to 1.4025 - 1.40 lower support in the near term.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1217): Gold prices continue to drift gradually lower. Price action was bearish on Friday, but the daily chart was supported by the 50 period EMA. On the 4-hour chart, prices closed below 1230 - 1225 support/resistance which could confirm further downside. A brief retest to establish resistance at the newly broken support level would confirm the downside bias which will see Gold dip to the $1200 psychological support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/04/2016

The US dollar failed to capitalize on some modest gains during the intraday session yesterday and by NY's open, the Greenback started to trim its gains. However, EURUSD and Gold are showing signs of easing momentum, and the ranging price action will likely continue in the near term ahead of the big events this week including the FOMC meeting minutes and another speech by Janet Yellen.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD has closed for two consecutive days with a spinning top candlestick pattern which could indicate a near-term decline in prices. 1.130 which was a previously broken resistance level could be seen now being tested for support. Below 1.130, a decline further could see EURUSD fall towards the next support level near 1.120. On the 4-hour chart, price action has been consolidating into a rising wedge pattern which could see prices breakout to the downside for a test to 1.130.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (110.8): USDJPY has broken the 111.0 support and is now seen trading near the 110.7 handle. Price action is now close to trading at 110.672, which was the low formed on 17th March. Failure to hold above this low could see USDJPY post further declines towards the 110 handle. To the upside, price action looks weak with support/resistance at 111.31 likely to hold any gains. We anticipate that USDJPY could remain weak to the downside, but the momentum is likely to ease.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD managed to close on a bullish note following the previous three days of bearish price action. Multiple tests to 1.42 confirm the support level here, and only a break below 1.42 will see further downside in GBPUSD. On the 4-hour chart, price action is seen trading near the support at 1.426 - 1.424. A break below this level could see further downside in store ahead of a test to 1.42. A break below 1.42 will confirm a move to the downside towards 1.41 and eventually to 1.4025 - 1.40 support level that is yet to be tested.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1226): Gold prices are looking to move up again following yesterday's bearish close. So far price action has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, but a daily close will confirm this bias. The new rising median line on the chart shows Gold back at one of the support/resistance levels, currently in the 1230 - 1225 zone. A break higher will see further upside to the 1243 - 1237 zone. Overall, Gold prices are likely to stay limited below 1250 and 1215 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 06/04/2016

Yesterday, a strong risk off sentiment sent the yen and Gold prices higher, while the EURUSD remained largely flat. GBPUSD gave up its gains midway and turned bearish. Today's FOMC meeting minutes are likely to renew or reverse the prevailing trends in the markets, depending on the market reaction to the event. For the moment, $1200 looks elusive for Gold as price action could see a move back to $1250.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD continues to form small bodied candlesticks near the top end of the recent rally. The current pause is likely to see some consolidating ahead of the uptrend being resumed. 1.130 broken resistance could be tested for support ahead of further upside to 1.147 while a dip below 1.13 could see EURUSD test the lower support at 1.120. With prices breaking out from the modest rising wedge pattern, we can expect the dip to 1.13 with further downside likely on a break below this resistance and a continuation to the downside.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (110.3): USDJPY continues its bearish trend with rather a strong momentum. Prices remained biased to the downside with a close below 110.672 yesterday, and any potential upside moves in prices could be met with resistance. To the downside 110.5 will be the next level of interest ahead of a longer-term decline to 109.5 region. It is ideal to keep an eye on the daily candlesticks for indication of any potential pullbacks to the current declines.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD is now trading below the minor resistance of 1.426 - 1.424. Yesterday's price action erased the gains from the previous day with a bearish engulfing indicating a continued downside in prices. Any pullbacks are likely to see the broken support/resistance at 1.426 - 1.424 being retested ahead of further declines towards 1.4025 - 1.40.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1228): Gold prices are looking to move up again following yesterday's bearish close. So far price action has formed a bullish engulfing pattern, but a daily close will confirm this bias. The new rising median line on the chart shows Gold back at one of the support/resistance levels, currently in the 1230 - 1225 zone. A break higher will see further upside to the 1243 - 1237 zone. Overall, Gold prices are likely to stay limited below 1250 and 1215 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 07/04/2016

Despite the initial volatility, the markets soon settled back following the release of the FOMC meeting minutes yesterday. EURUSD and Gold did not make any significant gains with the exception of the yen and the pound sterling. This potentially indicates that we could anticipate a near-term turn around in prices as the current trends seem to be weakening in their momentum.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD continues to hover near the 1.13 - 1.14 levels, with the past four daily sessions closing in the range. The consolidation is likely to see price action open up in the near term for a breakout. On the 4-hour chart, following the bounce off the lower median line, EURUSD managed to move back higher, but failure to post new highs could see a sideways range ahead of a break to the downside. The Stochastics oscillator is printing a lower high against the higher high in price indicating a pullback. Support comes in at 1.13 followed by 1.12 with the longer-term pullback pointing to a dip towards 1.10 levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (109.2): USDJPY continues its bearish trend with prices clearing the 110 level yesterday. The next downside target comes in at 107.51 which marks a 261.8% Fibonacci extension off the daily chart's longer term head and shoulders pattern. However, currently, USDJPY is trading near a previously broken resistance level which could be tested for support offering a short-term bounce in prices if the support holds. Below 107.51, the next main support comes in at 105.375.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD saw a strong rejection yesterday near the lows of 1.40. Price action remains biased to the downside for now, but as long as prices are above 1.40 handle, the declines could be limited. In the event of a close below 1.40, GBPUSD could resume a new leg of declines towards 1.39 and potentially lining up to post new lows in prices. To the upside, prices are likely to be capped near resistance of 1.426 - 1.424 levels.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1226): Gold prices have formed an inside bar on the daily chart yesterday and could see a potential breakout. To the upside, a daily close above the range high at 1236.8 could see a move towards 1250 while to the downside, a break below the range low at 1214.9 could see prices dip to 1200. Price action on the 4-hour chart is currently inconclusive, but the upside bias prevails if prices manage to break out higher and clear the 1230 - 1225 price zone and also manage to break the falling trend line.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 07/04/2016

The risk off sentiment saw Gold prices posting strong gains in yesterday's trading. Today's price action is seeing a pullback to the gains from yesterday with 1230 being the critical level of interest. A close below 1230 could see the gains being erased while a successful test at 1230 and a move higher could see Gold potentially move towards 1250 levels. Meanwhile, EURUSD has started to trade sideways indicating a potential breakout trade likely to emerge.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD remains trading sideways despite the market turmoil and the flight to safety, seen yesterday. The daily chart for EURUSD shows no conclusive evidence for the moment, clearly showing that the momentum is flat at the moment. Resistance at 1.147 remains in place and is pending a test of this level, while support at 1.13 comes to the downside. The 4-hour chart shows EURUSD currently trading near the lower median line with the past couple of sessions trading within a doji inside the bar. A breakout from this doji could see further bias being established, with a view that EURUSD could dip towards 1.13 in the near term.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (108.7): USDJPY closed yesterday at 108.21, and the daily chart is currently showing some bullish momentum, but still too early to tell. On the 4-hour chart, the newly plotted median line (dotted) shows USDJPY falling towards the lower median but the failure to find dynamic support off the lower median line indicates some upside potential. Broken support near 111.31 - 110.67 could be tested for resistance in the near term unless USDJPY resumes its bearish declines again. Stochastics do not offer any additional information at the moment so it is likely that USDJPY could either take a breather from the declines or resume its downtrend sooner or later.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.40): GBPUSD was bearish yesterday, but trading was limited to the previous day's range. The inside bar along with the Stochastics currently near the 20 level could see a short term move higher to 1.42. On the 4-hour chart, we see a bullish divergence on the Stochastics, which could see GBPUSD rally towards 1.422 - 1.42 level of new resistance for a test. The bias remains to the downside as long as this new resistance holds.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1237): Gold pushed higher yesterday, and the current price action is showing a potential dip towards 1230 ahead of further gains. On the 4-hour chart, the current consolidation comes after a strong rally from the previous sessions. If the bullish flag pattern is formed here, Gold could test the levels of 1252 on a break above 1241 top that is formed currently. To the downside 1230 will be key to watch as a break below this level could see Gold post a strong correction to the downside.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 11/04/2016

The markets were very mixed on Friday as Oil prices surged, closing the day with over 5.0% gains. However, the equity markets failed to keep up with the gains as yen started to trim its losses and continued to gather steam again, sending USDJPY to close on a modestly bearish note. EURUSD's weekly chart shows last week's price action closing with a doji which could see a further downside if we see EURUSD close below 1.1326.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.14): EURUSD closed last week with a doji pattern following the previous weeks of gains. This could signal a short-term pause, but a weekly close below the doji's low at 1.1326 could signal a correction lower. Support comes in at 1.130 and 1.120. There is evidence that EURUSD could see a stronger correction lower towards 1.10 if the support levels near 1.12, 1.11 gives way. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD has been consolidating near the lower median line and forming lower highs. A move below the short term base at 1.136 - 1.135 will confirm the move lower for 1.13 initially followed by 1.120.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (107.8): USDJPY remains biased to the downside with no strong evidence of any short term bounce or a correction. Price action is, however, trading near the support level of 108.1 - 108.0 region. A break below this level will see further declines towards 105.36 - 105 levels of support from which we can anticipate some kind of a correction to the upside. Any rallies ahead of USDJPY reaching the lower support at 105 levels will be capped near the resistance level of 112.4 - 111.4.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.41): Price action in GBPUSD is currently showing some conflicting signals. While there is a larger inverse head and shoulders pattern playing out with the right shoulder's low formed near 1.405 - 1.41, a break below this level could see GBPUSD post new lows. Resistance at 1.4425 remains key for any further upside gains to be formed above 1.420. To the downside, 1.4025 - 1.40 will be key as a weekly close below this level could confirm a move lower.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1252): Gold prices closed with a doji candlestick pattern on Friday, but early Monday session has seen Gold prices start off on a bullish note. A higher close on the daily session could keep Gold biased to the upside. With prices trading near 1252 currently, the price action validated the bullish flag breakout which points to a minimum price target near the $1260 region. The downside is well supported with initial support at 1250 followed by 1243 - 1237 levels of support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/04/2016

Gold prices have rallied back to the 1250 handle, but there is evidence that the current rally could be unsustainable. We anticipate that Gold prices could start turning lower over the next few days for an eventual correction back to the 1200 levels. For currencies, EURUSD remains range bound, but we expect this range to give way sooner than later. 1.13, 1.12 support levels are important in the near term, while a close above 1.145 could signal further upside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.14): EURUSD remains trading flat near the 1.14 and 1.13 levels with no clear bias being established yet. However, the 4-hour Stochastics shows a potential bearish divergence taking shape which could see a correction ahead of a longer-term move to the upside. Below 1.13 support, the next support at 1.12 will be critical to holding the declines. To the upside, 1.1421 will be key as a break above this level could see further upside gaining momentum. With yesterday's candlestick closing with a doji pattern inside the range, we expect some downside momentum to gain traction.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (108.1): USDJPY has been consolidating above the 107.84 level over the past few sessions. With yesterday's daily session closing in a small bodied candlestick pattern we expect to see some upside building up in USDJPY. Resistance level at 108.95 must be broken to ascertain further upside towards the main resistance at 110.67 - 111.31 levels. To the downside, a break below 107.84 could signal more declines in USDJPY.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD has formed a hidden bearish divergence right near the resistance level of 1.426 - 1.424. A lower close below this resistance could see GBPUSD head back to the minor support at 1.4138. The bias, however, remains to the upside, unless the minor support breaks down, in which case GBPUSD could fall back and test the previous support at 1.4025 - 1.40 which was tested only once with a strong rejection.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1254): Gold prices have posted strong gains reclaimed the 1250 resistance. Any pullbacks could see support at 1250 being tested ahead of further upside towards the 1265 - 1270 levels. However, with the bullish flag pattern completing its measured move towards 1259, momentum is likely to slow down. On the daily chart there is strong evidence that Gold prices could start to decline back towards the 1200 level, but of course, 1250 and 1230 level of supports need to be cleared.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 13/04/2016

The US dollar is looking slightly bullish attempting to reverse off the recent declines. Gold prices closed in a doji pattern yesterday and a bearish close today could confirm the downside bias while USDJPY might be stepping up for a pullback towards 111.0 resistance. EURUSD remains happy within its ranging pattern. US retail sales will be the key event to watch out for today.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD continues with its sideways price action with multiple doji candlesticks being formed near the top end of the rally on the daily chart. Price action is currently pushing lower, but a convincing close lower is needed, preferably below 1.1330 on a daily basis to ascertain the downside move. The lower supports remain unchanged with 1.130 and 1.120 coming in as the initial support levels which could see a minor bounce in prices but with limited upside potential.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (108.8): USDJPY has formed a bottom with prices closing on a bullish engulfing pattern. Any dips are likely to be limited within 108.4 - 108.100 while price action is likely to push towards 111.0 broken support to establish resistance. On the 4-hour chart, with the Stochastics making a higher high against price's lower high, a modest pullback is likely for a test to 108.10 - 108.15 region. A break above the current resistance at 108.95 will confirm the bullish view for a test to 110.67 and eventually to 111.0.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.42): GBPUSD is back near the 50 days EMA and could see a potential upside move in the making for a test to 1.4425. The 4-hour chart shows price action trading near the resistance level of 1.42635 - 1.4247 and could indicate a move lower to the support at 1.415 - 1.4126. Establishing support here could see GBPUSD eventually rally towards 1.4425 - 1.4437 region of previously established resistance in the short term. A break below 1.415 - 14126 could, however, spoil the party as GBPUSD could slip towards 1.4025 - 1.40 lower support.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1252): Gold prices closed in a doji pattern yesterday and indicate potential downside move if we see a daily close below yesterday's low at 1251.38. The doji pattern comes close to the breakout and retest level from the daily chart's previously noted ascending wedge pattern. 1231 will be the initial support to the downside; a break below could, however, push Gold towards the 1190 - 1200 levels. With the daily chart pointing to a strong divergence, we can expect further declines towards 1140 levels taking shape over the longer term.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 14/04/2016

Following days of trading sideways, EURUSD finally gave way yesterday and posted a 0.98% decline closing at $1.1272. We expect further declines to send EURUSD towards the $1.12 handle. Gold prices in the meantime are also looking bearish and could test $1200 following a short-term retest to the $1240 - $1245 level.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD broke out from its range yesterday and continues to move lower. With the $1.13 handle breached, any upside gains could see limited price action to retest the $1.13 for resistance ahead of a steeper test to $1.12 lower support. The 4-hour Stochastics has moved stronger into the oversold levels and will likely see some minor pullback ahead of further declines. A daily close above the $1.13 handle could, however, signal further upside correction in the near term, but overall the bias remains tilted to the downside for $1.120.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (109.3): USDJPY has closed bullish for the second day but minds the hidden bearish divergence which is likely to see a modest pullback. With 108.95 being cleared a potential retest back to this level which marked a previous resistance level could be seen to establish support ahead of a larger move to 110.67 and 111.31 levels to test for resistance. Below 108.95, the previous lows at 107.85 will be targeted, but it is unlikely to see USDJPY give up its gains so quickly.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD is pushing lower again following a test to the 1.43 handle earlier this week. Price action on the daily chart is consolidating into a descending wedge pattern with the possibility of a test to 1.405. If this level holds, GBPUSD could trim its losses and move higher to 1.4425. For the moment, the support at 1.415 - 1.4126 will be key as a support failure here could send GBPUSD lower to 1.40 region.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1232): Gold prices have been trending lower, but price action is at the 1230 handle of support, which could see a potential pullback if this support holds. The bounce off the 1230 handle could see prices test back towards the 1243 - 1237 region, which could post a retest of the breakout from the median line. The bias remains to the downside for the moment as prices could test the $1200 handle this time around.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 18/04/2016

Following the weekend Doha meeting where oil producers failed to reach an agreement, the markets opened today with risk off the table. Yen gained sharply while the reaction was muted in EURUSD and Gold, indicating that the current risk-off sentiment could be short-lived. Gold is likely to post a pullback ahead of further declines while USDJPY could start pushing higher over the next few days.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD closed the last two daily sessions with a small bodied spinning top/bottom patterns. Prices gapped higher in today's session, and the current declines could see the gap being filled near 1.1284 and could potentially fall to the lower support at 1.120. To the upside, 1.13 will be the resistance level that needs to be broken, which was previously tested on Friday, which could then see a correction towards 1.135. The bias remains to the downside overall as long as EURUSD does not move above 1.140.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.0): USDJPY gapped lower in today's session following the reversal pattern last Thursday/Friday. Prices are currently back near the previous lows were seen on 11th April, near 108 region. If this support fails, USDJPY could be looking to post fresh lows with 107.5 likely to be the next target. Alternatively, a bullish close higher could see a potential change of the short-term trend with prices likely to move to 110.67 - 111.43 resistance. Watch the current 4-hour chart unfolds for a potential doji pattern which could validate this view.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD is currently bearish following a minor bounce off the 1.415 - 1.4126 support. However, this bounce failed to see prices test the previous resistance near 1.4263 - 1.4247. A break below the support could extend GBPUSD losses towards the previous support at 1.4045 - 1.4025. Alternately, bounce off this support could keep GBPUSD ranging sideways with a potential to rally to test the previously missed resistance level.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1235): Gold prices are trading above the 1230 support following Friday's bullish close. Further upside in prices could see a retest to 1243.5 which could be extended to 1250. However, the bias remains to the downside at these levels with Gold likely to fall back to 1230 - 1225 and eventually to 1214 followed by 1200. A close above 1240 through 1250 could, however, shift the short term bias to the upside.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 19/04/2016

Following lower oil prices yesterday, the markets opened on a weak note but soon recovered as USDJPY managed to pull back strongly after a brief stint near the 108 level. However, the unfolding triangle pattern on the 4-hour chart points to a possible dip back to 108. Economic data remains fairly light today leaving USD crosses likely to stay flat into Thursday's ECB meeting.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD continues to move very gradually with small ranges, now running for three consecutive days. Price action has managed to close above 1.13 level of support and could target 1.135 and move as high as 1.14 on bullish momentum. There is a hidden divergence taking shape currently, which could see the upside momentum fail in the near term. In this scenario, a break below 1.13 support could send EURUSD lower to 1.12 level of support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.0): USDJPY is attempting to pull higher following yesterday's strong bullish price action. A daily close above the most recent high at 109.40 could see further upside gaining momentum. Failure to post a new high could make way for a possible head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart within the consolidating triangle establishing the neckline support at 108. A break below 108 could then pave the way for further downside in USDJPY. Alternately, a break to the upside off the triangle could see further upside towards 110.67 - 111.31.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.41): GBPUSD has been trading bullish for the past two days, but prices are currently struggling near the long term upper median line on the daily chart. The upside bias is starting to gain conviction with prices clearing 1.426 - 1.424 strongly. This could see GBPUSD look towards testing the next main resistance at 1.443 - 1.4425. To the downside, the recently broken resistance level could be tested for support to validate the view. A break below this support could, however, turn the bias bearish with GBPUSD likely to move back to 1.415 - 1.4126.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1230): Gold prices are consolidating near 1231 level and also forming a potential head and shoulders pattern against a slanting neckline. A break below 1220 - 1210 support could speed up the declines further as viewed from the daily chart. For the moment, Gold could stay range bound within 1243 - 1250 and 1230 - 1225 levels ahead of further declines lower, which could see a test to 1215 initially followed by 1280.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 20/04/2016

The US dollar posted strong declines yesterday after US housing starts and building permits indicated a slowdown in the once strong housing sector. However, it is still too early to tell if the downside will prevail for the US dollar opening the possibility that yesterday's price action in the dollar might well be a flush of long positions ahead of a potential correction to the upside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD posted some major gains yesterday after nearly three days of moving in a small range. Price is back trading above the $1.13 - $1.135 handle and could potentially threaten the $1.140 region. The 4-hour chart continues to show the hidden divergence, and unless EURUSD manages to rise above 1.1421 and post a new high above 1.1464, the bias remains to the downside with 1.130 support as the initial focus.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.9): Price action in USDJPY was fairly limited yesterday with the yen managing to hold its ground despite a weaker dollar with 108.95 coming in as a minor support/resistance, in play currently. The minor rising median line is currently showing USDJPY likely to move to the downside and the consolidation within the triangle pattern indicates some downside pressure. USDJPY could dip back to 108 support in the near term, and only a close below this level will indicate further downside.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.43): GBPUSD has managed to rise towards 1.4425 level of resistance on the daily chart and price action has broken out to the upside, but not quite convincingly. Only a close above 1.4425 on the daily basis will confirm further upside. On the 4-hour chart, prices are currently retreating, and the current pullback could push GBPUSD lower to retest the support at 1.426 - 1.424 which could see a renewed momentum push GBPUSD back towards 1.4437 - 1.4425 to test for resistance. A close below 1.4263 - 1.4247 could, however, see GBPUSD weaken and dip towards 1.415 - 1.4126.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1252): Gold prices rallied yesterday and posted strong gains. However, the upside bias remains limited for now, although we could expect a test to 1260. With prices failing so far to post any fresh highs and gold currently trading above 1250 - 1243, we could expect potential downside in the precious metal for a test to 1230 - 1225 region.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 21/04/2016

The US dollar managed to recover from its losses late yesterday pushing EURUSD lower. However, with the ECB meeting looming today, we could expect some volatility. Gold prices continue to consolidate near the 1250 levels, and the bias remains flat for the moment, with the upside likely to see 1260 - 1265 while to the downside support at 1230 - 1225 remains in focus.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD closed on a bearish note yesterday following the previous three sessions of gains. However, prices remain close to the 1.130 handle casting doubts on the downside potential in EURUSD. A daily close below last Thursday, April 14th lower close of 1.1267 is needed to ascertain further downside in the euro. Price action has cleared the 1.135 handle following the hidden divergence, and any retracements should see EURUSD confined to 1.135 level. A close above this price level could keep the euro range bound with the potential to move back to 1.140. To the downside watch for 1.120 level of support which could initially offer a short term bounce.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.8): USDJPY has managed to close bullish for the third consecutive day and is likely to see a push to 110.67 in the near term. The price dipped briefly to 108.95 to test for support before pushing higher and is now trading near the previous highs at 109.80 - 109.64. A close above this minor support/resistance is essential for USDJPY to test 110.67 - 111.31. Only a close above this price zone will confirm further upside. To the downside, a move back below the 108.95 could see USDJPY move sideways above 108 lower support.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.43): GBPUSD has formed an inside bar after a brief test to 1.442 resistance the day before. The strong consolidation is seen below 1.4425 - 1.405 is likely to prevail for the time being, but there is a scope for a larger rally if GBPUSD manages to break above 1.4425. On the 4-hour chart, prices failed to pullback and tested the lower median line, which could indicate further upside in store, but resistance at 1.4437 - 1.4425 could hold the rallies for the moment, which could see GBPUSD potentially test the lower support near 1.4263 - 1.424.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1249): Gold prices are currently consolidating follow Tuesday's strong rally as support is established near 1231.5. On the 4-hour chart, price action is currently within the falling median line which shows a downside bias validated by the lower high made recently. 1250 remains a key level, but a breakout higher could see a gold rally to test the previous highs near 1262. To the downside, 1230 - 1225 remains a key support level in the near term followed by 1214.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 22/04/2016

Following the ECB's meeting yesterday the euro gave back its initial gains, while precious metals pulled back strongly from their intraday rally. However, price action across the board still looks a bit volatile, but there is a possibility that the US dollar could see some upside in the near term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD formed an outside bar doji following the bearish close the previous day. Prices remain close to the 1.130 handle so the bias remains flat as prices could still attempt to break higher. The 4-hour chart shows prices trading within a consolidating triangle which could eventually open up a strong momentum led a breakout. $1.140 is the resistance to watch on the upside while $1.120 will be the support to watch to the downside. Plotting the median line, we expect to see the downside momentum prevail but only on a close below the lows at 1.123 - 1.125.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.9): USDJPY closed bearish yesterday and formed an inside bar following three days of gains and could potentially spell a pullback in the near term unless prices close strongly higher today. The breakout from the minor median line and with prices trading outside the median line indicates further upside to prevail towards 110.14 - 110.67. For further gains, USDJPY needs to close above the current support/resistance region near 109.8 - 109.64. For the moment, the 4-hour chart shows a bullish breakout from the consolidating triangle, but resistance is seen near 110.220 - 110 which could push prices lower in the near term.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.43): GBPUSD price action was similar to that of the EURUSD with price action forming an outside bar doji, just below the 1.4425 resistance. Price action could remain ranging unless the resistance level is broken. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD posted a strong decline after a test to 1.443 - 1.4425 resistance but is currently trading near the lower median line. Unless prices move higher and break above 1.4425, GBPUSD could fall back and test the support at 1.4263 - 1.4247.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1248): Gold prices were volatile yesterday, but prices managed to pull back towards the end of the day. Failure to close above the most recent doji high at 1262.68 indicates a move lower. 1231.5 support will be key to watch initially; a break below could see a move to 1200. On the 4-hour chart, gold is seen trading in the 1250 - 1243 support level below which comes the previously tested support at 1230 - 1225 as gold trades within a broadening wedge pattern.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 25/04/2016

Following Friday's strong price action, the markets opened on a weaker note this morning with price gaps across the board. A potential pullback is likely to be taking place ahead of further continuation of the short-term trends. The daily economic calendar is light for the most part today with only the US new home sales data likely to see some reaction in the markets.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.12): EURUSD gapped lower at today's open and the price action shows a potential for a pull back. Resistance at 1.13 and support at 1.12 is likely to keep EURUSD ranging between these levels in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, prices broke out to the downside following the consolidation within the triangle pattern. A retest could see EURUSD move back to 1.130 region ahead of a decline to 1.120 support and 1.113 - 1.1105 lower support levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (111.2): USDJPY is looking to retrace Friday's strong gains after prices closed near the 111.4 levels. A pullback could see USDJPY retest the 109 - 108.5 levels which mark the breakout of the daily chart. On the 4-hour timeframe, price action is seen posting a strong reversal near the 111.7 - 111.5 level of support confirming a pull back in USDJPY in the near term.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD gapped higher in today's session following Friday's bullish close. The declines are likely to be limited in the near term, but if prices close below the 1.443 - 1.4425 resistance, GBPUSD could potentially fall towards 1.4263 - 1.424 lower support. The bias remains to the upside so long as GBPUSD does not break below the immediate support level. In the near term, GBPUSD could potentially range sideways within 1.443 - 1.4425 resistance and 1.4263 - 1.4247 support levels.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1234): Gold prices closed on a bearish note following a pin bar on Thursday. Prices are, however, supported near the 1230 - 1225 level indicating a modest pull back. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the consolidation taking place within a broadening wedge pattern. A Pullback could see Gold rally and retest the 1243 - 1250 level to establish resistance ahead of further declines. A break below current support at 1230 - 1225 could see Gold fall towards 1214 - 1210 lower support.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 26/04/2016

The markets were flat yesterday, but the modest pullback continued with EURUSD attempting to recover the levels near 1.130. The flat price action is likely to continue into today's session ahead of the US data release which will include durable goods, services PMI and CB consumer confidence numbers being released.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.12): Closing with a bullish piercing line candlestick pattern on the daily chart, EURUSD is likely to push higher in the near term. With prices trading below 1.130, this level of minor resistance remains the initial level that could cap the upside. A break above 1.130 could send the EURUSD back into the trading range of 1.140 - 1.130. The 4-hour chart shows EURUSD level of 1.13 marking the breakout of prices from the consolidating triangle. The downside remains as long as prices don't break above 1.135 - 1.137.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (110.9): USDJPY is inching lower with the hidden divergence formed on the daily chart and the recent lower high formed at 111.889 yesterday. Support comes in at 109.8 - 109.5 region which could mark a retest of the upside breakout on the daily chart. USDJPY remains biased to the upside as long as prices remain above the 109 levels, failing which a quick descent towards 108.95 is likely.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD remains biased to the upside but yesterday's price action closing at a spinning top could see some downside unless prices close above previous highs of 1.4519 indicating further continuation to the upside. On the 4-hour chart, the ascending wedge pattern is likely to see prices dip lower. Initial support at 1.443 - 1.4425 is key, and a break below this level could see GBPUSD test the new support at 1.431 - 1.430. As long as GBPUSD holds above this support, there is potential for the upside momentum to continue. A break below the support could, however, see GBPUSD decline lower to test the previous lower support at 1.415 - 1.412.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1236): Gold prices managed to post a modest recovery following Friday's declines. On the 4-hour chart, Gold is currently consolidating into a bearish flag pattern which could indicate further downside to 1200. However, support at 1230 - 1227.5 needs to be cleared for gold to move lower. In the near term, gold could remain consolidated near 1243 - 1227/1230 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 27/04/2016

The British pound has edged strongly higher over the past few days but could under risk ahead of the initial GDP estimates for Q1, which could see some pullbacks across GBP crosses. Following the GDP data, the markets will no doubt be waiting for this evening's FOMC statement.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD is bouncing back with prices closing near the 1.13 handle yesterday. However, this is a level of minor resistance which could see prices struggle to break higher, but in the event of a close above 1.130, further upside could be extended towards 1.140, which could be seen if EURUSD attempts to breakout higher from the outer median line. To the downside, 1.120 is a clear support level which could hold prices in the near term.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (111.0): USDJPY price action was muted yesterday, but the bias still remains to the downside. A daily close below 110.67 could see further declines to 109 - 109.5 region. However, on the 4-hour chart, there is a potential bullish flag taking shape, where an upside breakout above 111.31 - 111.50 could extend gains to 112.50 initially followed by a rally to the previous resistance level at 114.7 - 114.35. The bullish bias could be invalidated if USDJPY drops below 110.67 in which case we can expect a test of previous support at 109.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.45): GBPUSD continues to surge ahead with prices briefly trading near 1.4635 yesterday, having cleared the 1.4425 resistance, which could be tested for support in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, price action continues to trade within the evolving rising wedge pattern, a breakout of which could see a dip to 1.4312 - 1.43 on a break below 1.443 - 1.4425 higher support. Alternately, clearing the resistance above at 1.4635 could see further gains in store.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1243): Gold prices are backing attempting to recover the lost ground with minor support at 1231 being established. Resistance is identified at 1250 - 1243 levels and with the hidden divergence currently on the 4-hour chart, Gold prices are likely to dip lower in the term ahead of further moves to the upside. Above 1250, gold could test the 1260 resistance which could see a potential start of a new bearish trend.