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Daily Forex Analysis by Orbex

Daily Forex Market Preview, 07/10/2016

The US dollar posted strong gains in early trading today and continued its bullish momentum after the US dollar index broke above the 96.00 resistance level yesterday. Further gains can be seen, but resistance at 97.35 remains a strong level to contend with as a near term pull back to establish support at 96.00 could be the main risk as the September jobs report is due for release later today.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.82): USDJPY has posted eight straight days of gains with price action currently consolidating near the 104.00 resistance level. The breakout from the falling trend line has seen no pullback to the breakout level near 102.00 whatsoever and could, therefore, post a major downside risk if the resistance at 104.00 proves hard to break. On the 4-hour chart, price action in USDJPY shows a fresh doji pattern that was formed near 104.00 and further downside could be seen coming. Support at 103.00 will be the initial level that could be challenged, and a breakdown below this support could trigger further declines to 102.00 - 101.61.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1254.06): Gold prices continued their declines yesterday, and price action is currently trading near the 1250 support level. On the daily chart, the RSI shows a hidden bullish divergence near the support and could indicate a potential move to the upside if this is validated. A retracement to 1300 cannot be ruled out, but at the same time, a breakdown below 1350 could trigger further downside towards the next psychological support at 1200. On the 4-hour chart gold initially bounced off 1250. Expect to see some near term consolidation at the current levels ahead of what could be a correction in the near term.

AUDJPY Daily Analysis

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AUDJPY (78.62): AUDJPY has broken out from the rising wedge pattern with yesterday's session closing out with a doji. Price initially fell to lows of 78.45 before the current retracement back to 78.65. If this break out level holds, AUDJPY could post further declines with support at 78.00 being challenged. A breakdown further could send AUDJPY down to 77.35 support. The short term bearish view will be invalidated should price retrace back above the 78.65 level in which case the most recent highs near 79.00 could be at risk for an upside continuation in the trend.
 
Daily Forex Market Preview, 10/10/2016

The US dollar edged higher on the open on the back of the just concluded second presidential debate, giving another victory to Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton. Once again, it was the Mexican peso which posted strong gains within a few hours of the open as the markets saw less chance for a victory by Republican nominee Donald Trump. The markets are closed across Japan, US and Canada today and trading is likely to remain slow for the most part.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1262.35): Gold prices closed with a doji/spinning bottom on Friday, and the current price action is showing a potential reversal off the $1250 handle. A continued momentum could keep gold prices supported to the upside as long as the support at 1250 holds. The upside correction could see gold likely to retrace back towards the 1310 - 1300 level which previously held as support. A retest back to this level, to test for resistance supports the bullish short-term view in gold.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.91): The US dollar gapped higher on the open at 103.24Yen, but the price has been edging lower. A break below Friday's low of 102.86 could trigger further downside towards 102.00. However, the support level of 103.00 could potentially offer some short term support despite price currently trading below this handle. The upside could be limited towards 103.70 - 103.50 region to establish minor resistance. Alternately, a continued decline below 103.00 could see USDJPY extend the declines towards the next main support at 102.00 - 101.61.

AUDUSD Daily Analysis

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AUDUSD (0.7592): AUDUSD completed the head and shoulders pattern noted last week with prices briefly testing the measured target of 0.7555 before quickly pushing back higher. Prices are seen retesting the neckline support at 0.7610, but the further downside can be expected for a more firm test back to the level of 0.7555. A break below 0.7555 could trigger further downside towards the next support at 0.7515. The bearish view could be invalidated if prices settle back above the neckline resistance of 0.7610.
 
Daily Forex Market Preview, 11/10/2016

The dollar/yen is currently showing bullish signs with the likelihood that the yen could be weakening in over the coming weeks. Although the currency pair is seen struggling near the 104.00 resistance level the technical point to a potential bullish momentum that is likely to build up. There is a potential for a possible retracement back to the 102.00 - 101.60 levels of support in the short term ahead of a medium term upside bias. Although the fundamentals this week are fairly quiet, Friday's speech by Janet Yellen will be the one to watch for, in an otherwise quiet trading week. The US dollar continues to remain firm with the current bullish momentum keeping the dollar well bid.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1259.10): Gold continues to remain on the watch list as the potential for a reversal off the support level at 1250 continues to build the case for a short term retracement back to 1300. Price action was muted yesterday with prices posting intraday highs of 1264.85 before pulling back lower. On the 4-hour chart, however, the Stochastics has already moved close to the overbought level and further near term consolidation could be expected. However, as long as the support level of 1250 holds, gold prices are likely to inch higher. The bullish case is invalidated on a bearish reversal pattern near 1250.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.90): USDJPY is seen retesting the resistance level near 104.00 despite last Friday's bearish close. The dollar managed to breakout above the 103.70 - 103.50 resistance zone earlier today. However, forming a lower high near 104.00 could signal early indication of a near-term correction towards the first support level at 103.00 followed by 102.00 with the correction likely to stall near 101.75 - 101.61 support level. The 4-hour rising median line is likely to be breached following a lower high and a median line failure at 104.00. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart points to a bearish divergence with the oscillator failing to confirm the current highs.

AUDUSD Daily Analysis

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AUDUSD (0.7552): AUDUSD has broken down to 0.7555 support after prices briefly broke through the head and shoulders neckline support of 0.7601, which is now confirmed as resistance with prices being rejected strongly above 0.7610. To the downside, a breakdown below 0.7555 will trigger further declines in AUDUSD towards the next main support at 0.7515. However, watch for price to consolidate near the current support level. On the daily chart, following the two consecutive days of doji candlestick pattern, a bearish close today could trigger further declines well below 0.7515.
 
Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/10/2016

The US dollar maintained the lead, rising to a 7-month high yesterday. The US dollar index closed at 97.73 supported by hawkish comments from Chicago Fed President Charles Evans who said that the US economy was on a sound footing and that an interest rate hike in December would be fine. In the equity markets, the third quarter earnings season got underway with the bell weather Alcoa missing earnings estimates while lowering its 2016 revenue targets. The equities came under pressure as a result. The yen was, however, the strongest currency yesterday.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.47): USDJPY closed with a doji after another attempt to breakout above 104.00 was met by strong selling. Still, the dollar managed to close nearly flat against the yen, resulting in a doji near the resistance level. A lower close today could be seen as a bearish signal as we continue to wait for a pull back in USDJPY. On the 4-hour chart, as noted in yesterday's commentary, price action reversed near 104.00 forming a lower high with a break out from the rising median line that followed. Prices remain consolidating near 103.70 - 103.50 resistance level, and we could expect near term weakness to 103.00. A break below 103.00 support level is needed to ascertain the declines towards 102.00 followed by 101.75 - 101.61.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1257.20): Gold prices pulled back yesterday but remain supported above 1250. However, a more firm retest to 1250 would have increased the bullish expectation of a retracement to the 1300 support level. Still, watch for price to consolidate near the support of 1250. On the 4-hour chart, the minor trend line shown on the chart will be key as a breakout from here could see further upside. Initial minor resistance is seen near the 1265 region, therefore, a breakout above 1265 will confirm further upside in gold, towards the 1300 round number psychological resistance level. Traders should bear in mind this Friday's speech by Janet Yellen which will be the main event risk for gold.

AUDJPY Daily Analysis

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AUDJPY (78.38): We have been covering AUDJPY previously and alerted to the rising wedge pattern. The Australian dollar opened the week with a bang as prices quickly rallied back to challenge the previous resistance level of 78.65 earlier on Monday. However, the rally was short lived as price quickly reversed back following a lower high. Yesterday, AUDJPY fell towards the support level at 78.00, and we currently see a strong rebound in prices. The bullish momentum could keep AUDJPY supported to the upside, and it is likely that another retest back to 78.65 is on the cards. Watch for a potential reversal back near the 78.65 resistance which could mark the start of a reversal to the downside, targeting 78.00 support once again followed by 77.35.
 
Daily Forex Market Preview, 13/10/2016

The US dollar edged higher yesterday after the Federal Reserve's meeting minutes put more weight towards a December rate hike. The meeting minutes sent USDJPY briefly higher to a 2-month high, but prices are seen pulling back following a weaker yen. With Friday's speech from Janet Yellen in focus, the markets are likely to position itself for a hawkish speech from the Fed chair which could keep the dollar well supported to the upside. However, this exposes the downside risks in the US dollar index which is yet to challenge the recently broken resistance level of 96.00 - 96.30 for support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1017): EURUSD has been posting a steady decline for the past three days with price action breaking clear of the 1.1100 support level. The further downside can be expected in EURUSD which could be seen targeting 1.0900 support. However, in the interim, expect prices to post a modest rebound off the 1.1000 round number psychological support. This could potentially see EURUSD rallying back to the 1.1100 level to establish resistance. The bearish case could be invalidated if price breaks out of the falling median line above 1.1100 resistance.

XAUUSD Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1260.56): Gold prices fell back to the 1250 handle yesterday as expected and the current bullish momentum is likely to continue to the upside with a daily bullish close today likely to confirm the upside. On the 4-hour chart, 1264.85 will be a key level to watch as further upside can be seen coming only on a breakout to the upside. Ahead of the expected correction to 1300 which needs to be tested for resistance, 1278 is a minor level that will be challenged in the near term. Look for any bounce off the 1264.85 price level to confirm further upside.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.80): USDJPY closed bullish above 104.00 resistance coming off the previous day's doji candlestick. However, further upside looks unlikely after prices broke out from a minor cup and handle pattern, rallying to 104.57 highs before quickly reversing the gains. A bearish close on the 4-hour chart below 104.00 could confirm the anticipated correction lower. Watch for short term support levels at 103.00 ahead of a larger correction to 102.00 and 101.60. The re-adjusted median line shows that prices could be posting a rebound off 103.00 support which will put a retest back to 104.00 into focus for a test of resistance. All in all, look for another short-term reversal off 103.00 back to 104.00 for a confirmation of a lower high.
 
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