Daily Forex Analysis by Orbex

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 08/09/2016

Following Tuesday's weakening in the US dollar, prices were seen stabilizing yesterday with the markets now waiting for the ECB's press conference. Not much in terms of policy changes are expected, therefore the ECB's economic projections and QE prospects will be closely watched. EURUSD has formed a potential head and shoulders pattern that is still evolving. A validation of this pattern puts EURUSD at risk of testing 1.0900 support. Meanwhile, GBPUSD is likely to post a lower high following which a correction to 1.3200 is on the cards.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1251): EURUSD has formed what looks like a spinning top pattern near the lower high. On the daily chart, price action is also showing a potential head and shoulders pattern with the right shoulder currently formed near yesterday's high. A bearish follow through here, and a breakdown towards 1.1100 could signal further downside to 1.0900. On the 4-hour chart, price action is showing consolidation near the current levels with resistance at 1.1270 - 1.1280 likely to be tested. As long as prices remain below 1.1300, the daily chart's head and shoulders pattern could signal further downside.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.56): USDJPY tested an 8-day low to 101.20, but price action is still likely to push lower to test 101.00 - 100.80 support level. A retest here could mark the completion in the correction with USDJPY likely to push higher from here on. To the upside, watch for 104.00 as the initial resistance followed by a test to 106.00 resistance level. To the downside, if USDJPY breaks below 100.80 on a daily basis, the further downside could be seen with a test to 100.00 quite likely.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3352): GBPUSD was bearish yesterday with prices forming an inside bar near 1.3400. Failure to breakout to the upside could keep GBPUSD biased to the downside for a test towards 1.3200 support level. On the 4-hour chart price action has broken below 1.3400 after forming a pivotal high near 1.3445. A lower high back to 1.3400 could signal a continuation to the downside targeting 1.3200. In the event that prices break above 1.3400 and threatens the previous high, further upside could be seen.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1346.85): Gold prices pulled back after testing 1350 handle yesterday, and the daily chart price action is showing a descending triangle pattern with the neckline support seen at 1300 - 1315. As long as 1360 is not breached, the bias remains to the downside, in which case further declines could be seen coming. On the 4-hour chart, the hidden bearish divergence continues to remain in play with support at 1331 - 1327.50 likely to be tested in the near term. Also, note the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern that could be formed following the test of resistance at 1356 - 1350 on the 4-hour time frame. A reversal near 1331 - 1327.50 could potentially see gold prices break out towards posting new highs.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 09/09/2016

The single currency initially surged by over 0.70% during the day yesterday after the ECB left policy unchanged. However, after a few attempts to break out above $1.3000, EURUSD soon settled the day lower. Price action is currently retracing the declines, but the correction could be limited ahead of a drop to $1.1200. In GBPUSD, a similar pattern is emerging which shows prices are likely to post a lower high near $1.3400 ahead of further declines towards the support at $1.3200.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1280): EURUSD attempted to breakout above $1.1300 resistance level, but prices were met with strong resistance. At the time of writing, EURUSD is attempting to test the resistance once more, but it is hard to expect any meaningful gains as the resistance level could be hard to break on no fundamental catalysts. On the 4-hour chart, the current retracement of yesterday's declines to 1.1250 could be seen with the bearish divergence that is currently forming. Support at 1.1200 is quite likely to be tested on a lower high being formed.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.01): USDJPY managed to close above 102.00 resistance yesterday, but the close above this resistance does not look very convincing. The near-term pullback is likely to see USDJPY remain trading within the 101.00 - 102.00 price zone. There is still a risk of USDJPY falling towards the 101.00 - 100.80 support level that has been mentioned previously. From the current price action, USDJPY is likely to complete its declines near the support ahead of further gains that can be seen coming.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3330): GBPUSD continues to remain trading within the inside bar that was formed two days ago. In the near term, the current retracement could see a test of $1.3400 ahead of further declines to test the $1.3200 support. This view is validated by the 4-hour chart where we see GBPUSD bouncing off the lower median line. Forming a lower high near 1.3400 could confirm the bearish view. Watch the Stochastics which is currently in the oversold area for posting a lower high which could see the bearish divergence being in play. A daily close above $1.3400 could put the downside bias at risk.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1339.10): Gold prices posted two straight days of declines after testing the $1350 resistance level. Support is now seen at $1330 in the near term. The previous minor support at $1315 - $1300 will be key as a breakdown below this support is essential to see further declines in price. Alternately, bounce off the $1330 - $1327.50 support from the 4-hour chart could see the potential inverse head and shoulders evolve which could see gold prices turn bullish if price manages to break out above the $1350 - $1360 neckline resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/09/2016

Fed member, Lael Brainard's speech will be the centerpiece for the markets today amid a quiet trading day with not much of economic releases on the agenda. The US dollar closed last week, recovering some of the losses from earlier in the week. A minor retracement is, however, expected in the US dollar, which could see a pullback across most of the dollar crosses. Gold prices are forming an inverse head and shoulders pattern, but the appearance of this pattern near the top end of the rally requires some caution.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1244): EURUSD could remain range bound within 1.1300 - 1.1200, for the most part, this week, with the further direction being established on a breakout from either of those two levels. On the 4-hour chart following the bounce off the lower median line, we can expect EURUSD to retrace higher, perhaps to form a lower high below 1.1300 region. This could potentially keep EURUSD biased to the downside, for a more firm test towards 1.1200. Below 1.1200 support, the next main support is at 1.1155. Watch for the Stochastics to form a lower high indicating a bearish divergence to confirm this view.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.47): USDJPY bounced off 102.00 support last week with Thursday's bullish engulfing pattern. Although the upside could gain momentum on a breakout above 104.00, there is scope for USDJPY to decline back to 101.00 - 100.80 price level to establish support. The bias remains to the upside as long as the psychological 100.00 level is not breached.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3266): GBPUSD closed below the inside bar that was formed last week hinting at further downside in store. On the 4-hour time frame, following the breakout from the lower median line, GBPUSD could be seen retracing its declines, but the correction is limited towards 1.3400. Watch for a lower high to be formed below 1.3400, ahead of a test towards the 1.3200 - 1.3170 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1328.76): Gold prices closed near 1330 support last week after three straight days of declines from the 1350 handle. Price action is showing signs of an inverse head and shoulders pattern which comes near the top end of the rally, indicating a continuation to the upside if the neckline resistance near 1350 - 1360 is breached. Alternately, a break below 1327.50 - 1330.00 support could signal further weakness with gold likely to fall towards 1314 - 1312 lower support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 14/09/2016

The British pound, which extended its declines from last week will be the currency in focus today as the payrolls report for August is due for release today. Economic releases from the US picks up from today starting with the import prices. Overall price action suggests volatility with some of the major currency pairs moving within a tight range, which could see a volatile breakout over the coming days.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1225): EURUSD closed on Tuesday trading within the range from Friday's high and low and marking a second day of the inside bar. The price congestion formed could see a strong momentum led a breakout in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, price action has broken out from the rising median line, but trading remains volatile. A move to the upside to retest the breakout could see EURUSD retest 1.1270 - 1.1280 resistance level of interest. A retest to this resistance could further confirm the downside towards 1.1200. Alternately, above 1.1280, EURUSD could be seen breaking above 1.1300.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.87): USDJPY managed to bounce off 102.00 support, but the price action remains inconclusive for the now with price trading near the 103.00 price level. A reversal here could see USDJPY resume its declines to mark the completion of the retest towards 101.00 - 100.80 support level. The downside bias remains invalidated if USDJPY breaks above 103.00 in which case further continuation in prices could see USDJPY rally towards 104.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3198): GBPUSD fell to 1.3200 support yesterday forming a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart. However, with price trading at the round number support, a near-term bounce could be expected. GBPUSD could stay range bound within 1.3400 and 1.3200 with the further direction being established on a breakout from these ranges. On the 4-hour chart, the price is seen trading near the 1.3200 - 1.3170 support level. A confirmed reversal here could see GBPUSD retest 1.3282 - 1.3294 resistance level.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1320.16): Gold prices extended their declines to test 1315.00 support level. The close below the doji indicates further declines towards 1300.00 and also invalidates the potential inverse head and shoulders mentioned previously. Near-term rebound off 1315 - 1312 support could see Gold prices retest 1327.50 - 1330 for resistance after the level failed as support. A retest from here could signal further downside to 1300.00 if the lower support fails to hold the declines.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 15/09/2016

GBPUSD posted a strong rebound yesterday as noted, despite the short term intraday dip to session lows below 1.3200. Today's Bank of England meeting, UK, and US retail sales data will weigh on the currency, which could either push higher on a break above 1.3280 - 1.3290 or the cable could resume its declines towards 1.3000 eventually. USDJPY is another currency pair to watch as the price action indicates a potential decline towards the 101.00 - 100.80 support where a retest has been long pending.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1245): EURUSD briefly tested the resistance level of 1.1270 - 1.1280 yesterday, but overall price action still remains flat with prices supported above 1.1200. Price action remains range bound especially with yesterday marking a third consecutive day of prices trading within the inside bar formed last Friday. Watch for a breakout from the range high of 1.1284 and range low of 1.1198 for the direction to be established.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.26): USDJPY remains choppy and trading rather flat. Price managed to stay supported above 102.00 support level with intraday test towards 103.00 which was met with strong rejection of prices. On the 4-hour chart, with the falling median line being established, we can expect further downside on a breakdown below 102.00. This could extend USDJPY's declines towards the long pending retest of support at 101.00 - 100.80. Alternately a breakout above 103.00 could push USDJPY towards 104.00, with further gains likely to come by on established support above 103.00.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3258): GBPUSD tested 1.3200 support yesterday with prices briefly dipping lower during the day. This could potentially see near term upside in GBPUSD, which could be a correction ahead of further declines. On the 4-hour chart, following the consolidation near the support at 1.3200 - 1.3170, price action has pushed higher, with resistance at 1.3294 - 1.3282 likely to be tested. A breakout above this resistance could see GBPUSD extend its gains towards 1.3400. Still, a lower high could keep prices biased to the downside. Watch for a retest back to 1.3200 - 1.3170 and a break below this level could see GBPUSD decline towards 1.3067.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1322.16): Gold prices attempted to recover from the previous session's lows yesterday with price testing an 8-day low near 1313.66 before closing higher on the day. The reversal here needs to see a follow through with a bullish close above yesterday's high at 1325.95 and resistance at 1330.00. The resistance level sits strong here, so any gains are likely to be capped unless price manages to break out strongly above the resistance. In this case, prices remain open towards trading back to the 1350 handle. Alternately, a retest towards 1314 - 1312 looks likely if the resistance at 1331 - 1327.50 holds.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 16/09/2016

Yesterday's weak set of data from the US included retail sales, PPI, and industrial production, all of which weighed on the sentiment, pushing the US dollar lower. The economic calendar today is quiet with the August CPI data being the sole data point of interest which could potentially turn out to be a market mover ahead of next week's FOMC decision.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1240): The EURUSD continues with its ranging price action as consolidation within the inside bar continues to build up. Prices briefly hit the resistance level of 1.1270 - 1.1280 yesterday but were met with rejection, sending the euro to trade back into the range. The US CPI data will likely bring a major impact on the EURUSD today with the likelihood of the single currency breaking above 1.1280, while to the downside, 1.1200 remains the key levels of interest.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.04): USDJPY has been holding up above the 102.00 support level for the past few days. Price action remains flat as long as the support holds up while the resistance at 103.00 keeps a lid on the gains. Still, a breakout off these levels is expected. To the upside, 104.00 comes into focus while to the downside, a break below 102.00 could see prices testing the 101.00 - 100.80 support level. USDJPY remains flat, but the price action is similar to that of EURUSD which indicates a potential breakout on the horizon.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3236): GBPUSD closed with a doji yesterday after bouncing off the 1.3200 handle the day before. Prices remain flat, but GBPUSD could be seen testing 1.3400 in the near term. Price action shows multiple tests to the 1.3200 - 1.3170 support level, which has managed to hold out strongly so far. The median line breakout could see another potential decline to 1.3200 ahead of a rally towards 13282 - 1.3294 resistance level. Above this resistance, further upside could potentially see GBPUSD retesting the 1.3400 resistance level.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1313.41): Gold prices extended the declines to the 1314 - 1312 support level yesterday. A breakdown below this support could see gold prices touch down to the $1300 psychological level. The 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence which points to a near term pull back towards the 1327.50 - 1330.00 resistance level. The gains are likely to be limited near this level into next week.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 19/09/2016

Friday's inflation figures were the surprise of the week in what would have otherwise been a week marked with negative data from the US. With consumer prices seen firming, the US dollar gained late Friday and could enter a period of consolidation ahead of Wednesday's big event. EURUSD looks to have finally broken out of the range and could see further downside ahead of the FOMC meeting.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1168): EURUSD closed Friday on a bearish note with price breaking out from the inclined head and shoulders neckline trend line. Support is seen at 1.1100 next, and any near term bounce is likely to be resisted near 1.1200. On the 4-hour chart, the Stochastics looks oversold which indicates a possible near-term bounce to the upside. Watch for a move back to 1.1200 with a reversal likely to lead EURUSD further to the downside provided prices can break down from the 1.1150 support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.04): The price action in USDJPY remains somewhat muted in comparison to its peers. Price continued to consolidate near 102.00 support level while we await a test to 101.00 - 100.55 lower support that is pending retest. To the upside, any chance of a breakout above 103.00 could see further gains being established with the resistance at 104.00 likely to be challenged.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3038): GBPUSD fell sharply reaching 1.3000 support. The failure to retrace to the resistance near 1.3290 - 1.3282 is worth bearing in mind as a potential snap back of prices could see strong momentum led gains. On the 4-hour chart, GBPUSD has breached the 1.3067 support. In the short term, 1.3000 round number could provide some relief alongside the evolving bullish divergence on the Stochastics. Any gains could be limited to 1.3170 - 1.3200.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1315.35): Gold prices extended the declines on Friday, but the price is still in the support zone of 1300 - 1310. Resistance is seen at 1327.50 after prices closed below the short-term support at 1314 - 1312. Any bounces could be limited to 1327.50 level of resistance, with a firm test to 1300 very likely in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, mind the bullish divergence on the Stochastics which points to a short-term correction to 1327.50 - 1331 level.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 20/09/2016

The US dollar opened on Monday on a soft note but managed to regain control by the end of the day. As the BoJ and FOMC decisions loom, the dollar will be looking at another quiet trading day. In the US, building permits and housing starts figures will be on the tap today, but traders will most likely focus on positioning ahead of tomorrow's all important central bank decisions.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1173): EURUSD's attempt to close bullish saw a very little recovery from Friday's declines with price briefly trading near 1.1200 yesterday before pulling back lower. Price action looks range bound within the 1.1200 and 1.1150 price levels with further declines to come only on a close below 1.1150. In the near term, EURUSD could remain range bound with BoJ and FOMC meetings around the corner.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.88): USDJPY continues to consolidate near the 102.00 price level. On the 4-hour chart, resistance is seen forming here which could indicate a near-term decline. 101.00 - 100.55 support to the downside remains in sight and could be tested on strong bearish price action near the 102.00 level. Alternately, if prices manage to close above 102.00, USDJPY could be seen testing 103.00, but further gains are limited.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3041): GBPUSD remains supported above 1.3000 level with yesterday's attempt to bounce off the support showing prices pulling back by the end of the day. Still, the higher low formed could potentially signal a near term upside. Watch for the resistance at 1.3067, where a breakout abve this level could see further gains being stretched towards 1.3200 - 1.3170 which could now act as resistance. In the near term, declines could be limited to 1.3000 unless the support level gives way in which case, GBPUSD could be poised to see further downside.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1316.01): Gold prices are seen bouncing off, recovering from Friday's low yesterday. After a few sessions of consolidation above 1314 - 1312 support level, gold prices could see further upside test 1331 - 1327.50 resistance level. The consolidation is likely to continue with no clear bias for now.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

What Matters In Today’s Fed Decision

Image via Federal Reserve

The big day is finally here, and all eyes are headed towards the Federal Reserve’s decision and Janet Yellen’s press conference. This event might have the biggest impact on the market this week, but that depends on the decision and statement. In this article, we will look at the possible scenarios as well as the most important factors in today’s decision and how they will impact stocks, currencies, and commodities.

Time of Release

There are various statements and figures to be released today

At 18:00 GMT+

• FOMC Economic Projections
• FOMC Statement
• Federal Fund Rate

At 18:30 GMT+

• FOMC Press Conference
• Q&A session

Expectations

Economic Projections: the market is expecting a possible downgrade in inflation and growth forecasts, while unemployment rate estimates may decline further over the next few months.

FOMC Statement: the Federal Reserve’s tone is expected to be somehow dovish, but it is also likely to keep the door open for further rate hikes, possibly in December, or even next year. In all cases, the Federal Reserve is likely to maintain the same approach that it has referred to since raising rates back in December of last year.

Fed Fund Rate: the current market expectations point to no change at 0.50%, while the Fed Fund Futures point at a 54% chance for 25bps rate hike and a 46% chance for no change.

Decision Scenarios

There are various scenarios for today’s decision, but in all cases, there will be a notable impact on all asset classes across the board.

• 25bps Rate Hike: despite the fact that estimates for a rate hike are low in today’s decision, we cannot rule it out of the possible scenarios. A dovish tone is more likely, as the Federal Reserve will try as much as possible to stabilize the market.

• No Rate Hike: this is the most possible scenario as the recent economic releases do not support the Federal Reserve’s case to raise rates. However, the Fed might come up with a hawkish tone, meaning that the Fed might keep the doors open for a rate hike in December.

• No Rate Hike With Dovish Tone: this is also another possible scenario. The global economy and the US economy are not growing enough to support higher rates anytime soon. Therefore, the Federal Reserve may switch back to the “wait and see” mode, awaiting further evidence before any rate hike. A dovish tone means the Fed will not consider raising rates this year.

Market Impact

• 25bps Rate Hike With Dovish Tone: another rate hike would lead to a massive selloff in equities and commodities while the US Dollar skyrockets. However, a dovish tone could limit the selloff in equities and the rally in the US Dollar, because future estimates for a rate hike will be on the downside.

• No Rate Hike With Hawkish Tone: holding the rates steady is set to have a positive impact on Equities and Commodities, and the US Dollar may lose some of its recent gains. However, such move will be limited as well because a hawkish tone would raise the market expectations for a rate hike in December.

• No Rate Hike With Dovish Tone: this would be the easiest scenario to trade. No rate hike with dovish tone would lead to a direct selloff in the US Dollar across the board, while equities and commodities add around 1% of gains.

What Matters In Today’s Decision

Traders need to be very careful with the Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s press conference, as she could change everything. For instance, even if the Fed’s statement is dovish, and Yellen comes with a hawkish tone, the market will react to Yellen’s remarks more significantly in comparison to the Fed’s. Therefore, although traders need to read the Federal Reserve’s full statement, they should also wait and listen to Janet Yellen’s tone before taking any trading decisions.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 22/09/2016

The US dollar gave up some of the gains yesterday as the Federal Reserve held interest rate steady at 0.50%, despite signaling that a rate hike is likely by December. The biggest impact was seen in USDJPY which is now trading back near the 100.00 handle. Gold prices also gained on the Fed's decision yesterday with further upside likely. Still, overall price action remains flat in the near term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1196): EURUSD rallied back to 1.1200 resistance level yesterday, and the failure to break out below 1.1100 could result in further near term upside. Above 1.1200, the price could be seen heading back to 1.1250 in the short term. Watch for a pullback towards 1.1150 ahead of further gains with the current price action resulting in a hidden bearish divergence near the 1.1200 handle. The downside is limited to 1.1150, and further declines can be expected only on a breakdown below this support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.32): USDJPY is seen testing the previous support at the 100.00 psychological level after yesterday's muted reaction to the BoJ and the Fed holding rates. Still, the support is likely to hold up for the moment. A breakout above 101.00 - 100.55 is essential for any hopes of further upside with 102.00 resistance likely to hold the gains. USDJPY is likely to continue with its range bound price action within 100.00 and 102.00 regions.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3056): GBPUSD is attempting to recover from the lows of 1.2980, and further upside could be seen gaining momentum. Initial resistance at 1.3067 remains a key level that could cap the gains for the moment, keeping GBPUSD range bound above 1.3000 handle. Watch for a potential lower high to be formed on the pullback which could indicate further upside. Above 1.3067 resistance, GBPUSD could be seen testing 1.3200 - 1.3170 resistance level.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1333.10): Gold prices broke above 1330 - 1327.50 resistance level yesterday, but further gains can be seen only on this resistance level turning to support. In the near term, gold prices remain biased to the downside, with 1314 - 1312 lower support likely to see a retest once again. Expect further declines only on a breakout below this support while to the upside a test back to 1350 resistance cannot be ruled out.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 22/09/2016

The US dollar gave up some of the gains yesterday as the Federal Reserve held interest rate steady at 0.50%, despite signaling that a rate hike is likely by December. The biggest impact was seen in USDJPY which is now trading back near the 100.00 handle. Gold prices also gained on the Fed's decision yesterday with further upside likely. Still, overall price action remains flat in the near term.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1196): EURUSD rallied back to 1.1200 resistance level yesterday, and the failure to break out below 1.1100 could result in further near term upside. Above 1.1200, the price could be seen heading back to 1.1250 in the short term. Watch for a pullback towards 1.1150 ahead of further gains with the current price action resulting in a hidden bearish divergence near the 1.1200 handle. The downside is limited to 1.1150, and further declines can be expected only on a breakdown below this support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.32): USDJPY is seen testing the previous support at the 100.00 psychological level after yesterday's muted reaction to the BoJ and the Fed holding rates. Still, the support is likely to hold up for the moment. A breakout above 101.00 - 100.55 is essential for any hopes of further upside with 102.00 resistance likely to hold the gains. USDJPY is likely to continue with its range bound price action within 100.00 and 102.00 regions.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3056): GBPUSD is attempting to recover from the lows of 1.2980, and further upside could be seen gaining momentum. Initial resistance at 1.3067 remains a key level that could cap the gains for the moment, keeping GBPUSD range bound above 1.3000 handle. Watch for a potential lower high to be formed on the pullback which could indicate further upside. Above 1.3067 resistance, GBPUSD could be seen testing 1.3200 - 1.3170 resistance level.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1333.10): Gold prices broke above 1330 - 1327.50 resistance level yesterday, but further gains can be seen only on this resistance level turning to support. In the near term, gold prices remain biased to the downside, with 1314 - 1312 lower support likely to see a retest once again. Expect further declines only on a breakout below this support while to the upside a test back to 1350 resistance cannot be ruled out.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 23/09/2016

The US dollar trimmed its losses yesterday after a brief test to the 95.00 support in the US dollar index saw prices closing higher. Price action continues to remain range bound with no evidence of trends being established just as yet. This should see a minor pullback among USD crosses in the near term. Still, the dollar index remains vulnerable as a breakdown below 95.00 could spell further declines.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1195):EURUSD's failure to close above 1.1200 resistance yesterday keeps prices flat for the most part with the range of 1.1100 likely to remain in play. However, the reversal near 1.1251 yesterday marks a retest of the breakout from the neckline level of the head and shoulders pattern that was formed. This could indicate further declines on a convincing close below 1.1200. A retest to 1.1100 remains very much a possibility, but any declines below that will need to be convincing to ascertain the case for a dip to 1.1000. To the upside, any reversal off 1.1200 could spell further strength in the single currency which could aim for a retest to 1.1270 - 1.1281 resistance.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.14):USDJPY is seen posting a reversal after a dip to the 100.00 psychological level. Price action is seen heading towards 102.00 in the near term, but there are no distinctive signs that further upside could be maintained. On the daily chart, the support at 100.00 has been tested twice within the descending triangle pattern. Failure to breakout above 102.00 to extend the gains could signal further weakness in USDJPY with the potential to break down below the 100.00 handle.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3039):GBPUSD, failing to capitalize on the gains from the FOMC is seen trending lower today with a retest back to 1.3000 quite possible. On the 4-hour chart time frame, there is scope for an inverse head and shoulders pattern that could be forming with the left shoulder and the head formed already. A higher low around 1.3000 region could send an initial signal of a reversal that could take place. A breakout rally to the neckline resistance at 1.3067 could validate the inverse head and shoulders pattern that could send GBPUSD towards 1.3200 - 1.3170 resistance level. To the downside, a breakdown below 1.3000 could see further weakness in the cable with the potential for price to fall back to the previous lows at 1.2950.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1334.51):Gold prices closed in a doji yesterday above the support at 1331 - 1327.50. Depending on how today's price action unfolds, we could expect some near-term correction to prices. On the 4-hour chart, support at 1331 - 1327.50 will no doubt offer a short-term bounce, but further weakness can be expected if the support gives way. Gold prices could be seen falling back to the previous support at 1314 - 1312 region.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 26/09/2016

The US dollar is trading mixed in early Asian trading as a rather slow day will see speeches from central bank governors including Kuroda, SNB's Jordan and Mario Draghi. US new home sales data is on the pipeline later today followed by Fed Member, Tarullo's speech. On the political front, the first US presidential debate will see Trump facing off Clinton.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1225): EURUSD remains consolidating near the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart, but price remains at risk of a downside move to test 1.1100 support. On the 4-hour chart, price action has been moving into a rising wedge pattern with prices briefly testing the minor resistance at 1.1250 - 1.1240. A breakout from this rising wedge could see EURUSD decline towards 1.1200 support followed by 1.1151.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.2978): GBPUSD pushed lower on Friday and invalidated the potential inverse head and shoulders pattern as prices fell back to September 20 lows. Still, with no significant lower low being formed and prices easing back following the break of the median line, GBPUSD could see some upside. A close above 1.3000 is essential to keep the bullish view intact. To the upside, initial resistance at 1.3067 will be challenged. A successful breakout to the upside could see the cable extend gains towards 1.3200 followed by the next major resistance at 1.3282 - 1.3294.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1333.31): Gold prices have been consolidating above 1331 - 1327.50 support last week by following the doji pattern and the subsequent local lows, prices consolidated into a head and shoulders pattern with the neckline support at 1336.15 being breached. Further declines can be seen towards 1324 - 1325 which will be the minimum target to the downside. However, with the major support seen at 1314 - 1312, gold prices could be seen pushing lower if the support at 1331 - 1327.50 is breached. To the upside, a move back above 1341 will invalidate the bearish bias. The daily chart shows two consecutive days of price closing with a doji pattern and an inside bar with a breakout below last Thursday's low at 1331.01 indicating furth

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 27/09/2016

The markets were cautious yesterday with the central bank speeches and the US presidential debate. USDJPY slipped below the 101.00 handle was seen threatening to break down below the 100.00 support level before pulling back modestly higher. Still, the risks in USDJPY remain to the downside, unless there is a breakout above the 104.00 level. The economic calendar is fairly quiet today with US flash services PMI and FOMC Member, Stanley Fischer due to speak later this afternoon.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1243): EURUSD was bullish yesterday closing at 1.1253 and extending the gains for a fourth consecutive day. Price action remains choppy, but the upside momentum in EURUSD remains questionable. Yesterday's price action saw the euro attempting to close above the resistance zone of 1.1251 but was met with strong selling pressure pushing prices below the resistance zone of 1.1251 - 1.1239. The rising wedge pattern remains valid, but a confirmation of the breakout is required for a potential decline in EURUSD back to 1.1200 and 1.1151.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.76): The US dollar slipped back to trade around the 100.00yen psychological level, and the currency pair looks bearish. Still, there is scope for a potential pullback to the upside with 102.00 resistance in sight. The large descending triangle pattern remains in play with the support seen at 100.00. A breakdown of the support could spell further strong declines in USDJPY. To the upside, 102.00 resistance is critical as a breakout above this level could see USDJPY potentially post a strong rally towards 104.00 and eventually to 106.00. For now, the price action remains range bound.

EURGBP Daily Analysis

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EURGBP (0.8663): EURGBP remains well bid with price action yesterday seen testing early August highs above 0.8700. However, despite the gains, EURGBP closed the day well off the session highs. Support is seen at 0.8600 - 0.8590 followed by 0.8495 - 0.8480. On the 4-hour chart, price action is reversing from the median line and is likely to retest the previous low at 0.86480. A break down below this previous low is essential to ascertain further declines towards 0.8600 - 0.8590.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 28/09/2016

The US dollar is looking to make a comeback with price action showing a positive close yesterday as flash services PMI came out higher than expected while US consumer confidence continued rose to 104.10, helping to lift the US dollar. Today, the markets will be tuned into Yellen's testimony and economic data which includes US durable goods orders. Besides Yellen's speech, Draghi and FOMC's Bullard are also due to speak.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1208): EURUSD closed just above 1.1200 handle yesterday with the previous numerous attempts to test 1.1300 having failed. Price action remains strongly range bound, and a convincing close below 1.1200 could signal further declines. On the 4-hour chart, we can see prices currently bouncing off the 1.1200 support. To the upside, a retest of the breakout level of the rising wedge pattern could offer a valid move with the potential for prices to drop lower. Watch for 1.1151 support to the downside. A breakout above the previous resistance of 1.1250 - 1.1239 could, however, put this downside bias at risk.

EURGBP Daily Analysis

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EURGBP (0.8622): EURGBP broke out from the median line yesterday failing to offer any pullback. However, following the breakout from the median line, we still expect a minor pullback into the price zone of 0.8671 - 0.8648. A reversal in this level could confirm the downside bias, for a test to 0.8600 followed by 0.8500 if the primary support fails to hold prices. On the daily chart price action closed bearish yesterday with a shooting star candlestick pattern being formed.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (100.60): USDJPY remains trading close to the 100.00 support level, and we could expect to see another minor rally in prices. Resistance at 102.00 remains in sight as the price level also coincides with the daily chart's falling trend line which forms the descending triangle pattern. Therefore, the bias in USDJPY remains to the downside on a possible breakout below 100.00. On the 4-hour chart, price action is currently attempting to breakout above 100.61 Yen minor support level which has seen prices consolidating over the past few sessions. Above 102.00, further gains can see USDJPY potentially test 103.00 major resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 29/09/2016

US stocks closed higher yesterday, led by gains in the energy sector as OPEC announced plans to cut production, to be formalized in the November OPEC meeting. The news helped lift commodity currencies as well with the Canadian dollar and the Norwegian Krone posting the biggest gains among its peers. On the economic front, Janet Yellen continues with her testimony today while the second quarter US GDP is up for the final revision today followed by pending home sales data.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.3022): GBPUSD has narrowed in its range but has managed to hold out near the 1.3000 handle with yesterday's session closing in a doji. On the 4-hour chart, following a brief consolidation near 1.2960 - 1.2954 support, GBPUSD managed to bounce higher but is challenged by the resistance at 1.3067. Further gains can be expected only on a breakout above this level for 1.3200 initially. To the downside, price action could remain range bound within the current levels.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.53): USDJPY is seen extending gains today, with prices currently trading at a 6-day high. Resistance is seen at 102.00 which could temporarily keep a lid on prices unless we see a strong breakout above this level. The 102.00 resistance level shows a confluence between the falling trend line and the horizontal resistance. On the 4-hour chart, there are bearish signs as the Stochastics shows a hidden bearish divergence. Near-term pullbacks can be expected back to 101.00 through 101.60.

EURGBP Daily Analysis

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EURGBP (0.8622): EURGBP continues to remain on the watch list as prices are currently showing a reversal off the 0.8600 support level. A near-term pullback could see EURGBP trim its losses with a retest back to the resistance level of 0.8671 - 0.8648. The overall bias is likely to remain to the downside if we get a confirmation of a reversal near the resistance level. However, mind the fact that the daily session in EURGBP closed with a doji which hints at a near-term recovery in the declines.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 30/09/2016

Following the OPEC led gains in the oil markets which saw the commodity linked currencies gaining ground, price action yesterday saw the currencies give up most of the gains as the US dollar edged higher on the day. The Australian dollar was the weakest, closing the day 0.73% lower. US final GDP for the second quarter was revised higher than expected. Today's economic calendar will see the UK final GDP revision while in the US session, personal spending and PCE data will be released.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.1217): EURUSD continues to post a strong consolidation with prices support above 1.1200 level and 1.1250 resistance. Following the breakout from the rising wedge pattern, EURUSD has stalled, but this sideways range could soon give way to strong gains or declines depending on the support or resistance level that will give way. To the downside, support at 1.1100 could be challenged, while a breakout above 1.1250 resistance could see EURUSD retest 1.1300 yet again. Overall, price action in EURUSD remains flat for the moment.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (101.29): USDJPY was seen testing the falling trend line on the 4-hour chart marking the top of the descending triangle pattern. Prices quickly reversed following the trend line test which could now see the potential for the support at 100.00 - 100.50 being re-tested again. As long as USDJPY posts a higher low above the support, the bias remains to the upside, subject to breaking the trend line. Further gains can be seen with 103.00 resistance likely to be tested. Alternately, watch for price action near the support, as a breakout below the support could see USDJPY turning bearish.

EURGBP Daily Analysis

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EURGBP (0.8649): Continuing to keep an eye on EURGBP, price action was bullish yesterday following the doji pattern formed on Wednesday. However, the upside momentum looks to be stalling after prices retraced 0.8671 - 0.8650 resistance zone as pointed out over the past few days. A reversal from here, following the doji candlestick pattern on the 4-hour session, could indicate further declines in store. Initial support at 0.8600 remains key to the downside, and a break down below this support could see EURGBP extend the declines towards 0.8495 - 0.8480 support. Alternately, watch for any potential gains above 0.8671 - 0.8650, which could invalidate the bearish bias and put EURGBP on the path for more gains.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/10/2016

The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy meeting today saw the central bank leaving interest rates unchanged at 1.50%. The US dollar remains strong with prices seen rising for the second consecutive day. Resistance at 96.00 is likely to be tested in the US dollar index in the near term with further gains coming only on a close above this price level. The dollar remained bullish as yesterday's ISM manufacturing data posted a rebound. The economic calendar is relatively quiet today with no major US data on the tap.

AUDUSD Daily Analysis

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AUDUSD (0.7667): AUDUSD is potentially forming a head and shoulders pattern at the current levels with the 4-hour session showing a shooting star pattern near the right shoulder. Neckline support is seen at 0.7600 - 0.7610 region. A breakout below this neckline support could trigger further declines down towards 0.7555. The short bias remains invalidated if AUDUSD manages to rally above the recent right shoulder high at 0.7691.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.17): USDJPY is seen attempting to breakout above 102.00 resistance currently. However, there could be a risk of a pullback considering the five consecutive days of gains. With the resistance at 102.00, any pullbacks could be seen limited to 101.00. On the 4-hour chart, price action currently shows a hidden bearish divergence with the Stochastics printing a higher high against the lower high in price. To the upside, further gains could see USDJPY test the next main resistance at 103.00.

EURAUD Daily Analysis

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EURAUD (1.4604): EURAUD is currently testing September 28 lows near 1.4581. A bullish close on the 4-hour session above this support could keep EURAUD range bound below 1.4650 - 1.4632. However, the bias remains to the upside, and a breakout above 1.4650 could trigger further gains towards 1.4800. The Stochastics on the 4-hour chart shows a bullish divergence which could be confirmed on a convincing close above the resistance level of 1.4650 - 1.4632. Alternately, the long bias remains invalidated should prices fail to rise above the resistance level, in which case further declines could be expected.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/10/2016

The US dollar is trading strong against the yen with USDJPY now into a 6-day winning streak. Ahead of today's ISM non-manufacturing PMI and ADP private payrolls data, the technical outlook in USDJPY is biased to the downside with a pull back to 102.00 remaining a possibility. The overall trend in USDJPY remains to the upside, with the possibility of the dollar reaching to 106.00 in the near term.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (102.88): USDJPY broke out to the upside, clearing 102.00 resistance with the price now into a six day winning streak. Any pullbacks are likely to be limited towards 102.00 which could be tested for support, paving the way for further upside to 106.00. On the 4-hour chart, price action closed with a hanging man candlestick pattern which comes at the top end of the rally and near the short-term resistance of 103.00. To the downside, a pullback should see USDJPY fall towards 102.00 - 101.60 support but a breakout above 103.00 could signal continuation.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.2734): GBPUSD continued its bearish momentum after breaking down below August lows of 1.2874. The falling price channel shows the decline in the prices with the 4-hour sessions currently slowing both in momentum and the range. If the most recent 4-hour session's doji close is anything to go by, GBPUSD could be posting a correction in the near term with 1.2800 likely to be challenged. The bias remains to the downside, but a correction to retest 1.2874 for resistance is quite likely. The bearish view changes should GBPUSD managed to reclaim 1.2874 in which case the upside momentum could see the cable fill the gap at 1.2980.

AUDUSD Daily Analysis

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AUDUSD (0.7635): The Australian dollar completed the head and shoulders pattern as prices fell to 0.7610 neckline support yesterday. However, the declines were quickly met by a strong reversal off the neckline support sending prices back higher. In the near term, the minor support at 0.7649 will now be challenged, and if the level turns to resistance, we could expect further declines, even potentially breaking out below the neckline support. However, should AUDUSD see a strong continuation with the bullish pattern above 0.7649, the head and shoulders pattern would be invalidated.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 06/10/2016

The US dollar continued to maintain its bullish momentum going after yesterday's soft ADP payrolls report was offset by stronger than expected ISM non-manufacturing PMI and factory orders. Gold prices remained under pressure although prices pulled back from lows of 1262.16 to close the day at 1266.70. While GBP and the JPY remained weak, price action in EURUDS continues to remain flat with prices seen consolidating near 1.1200 level for nearly the past 8-days. The economic calendar is fairly quiet today ahead of the all important payrolls report and manufacturing data from the UK due tomorrow.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.2716): GBPUSD managed to close bullish yesterday after posting a fresh 31-year low at 1.2685. Although the PMI's this week came out stronger than expected, the Sterling remains under pressure due to the Article 50 talks that have pushed the GBP to new lows this year. While it is difficult to anticipate a reversal point from the current lows, watch for any potential rebound towards 1.2800 followed by 1.3000 resistance levels which could see some renewed selling pressure build up.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (103.48): USDJPY remains well bid with prices now shy of the 104.00 resistance level. However, following the upside breakout from the descending triangle pattern, a pullback to retest 102.00 is likely. On the 4-hour chart, following the doji that was formed a few sessions ago, support is seen at 103.00. A break below this support could trigger further downside in USDJPY towards 102.00 initially followed by 101.61.

AUDUSD Daily Analysis

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AUDUSD (0.7598): AUDUSD attempted to post a rebound near the neckline support of 0.7610 yesterday, but prices quickly reversed lower. The 4-hour session closed below the neckline with a strong bearish candle, and we could expect to see further downside in the near term. The minimum objective of this pattern sits at 0.7555. However, traders should note the doji pattern that was formed yesterday which could see a risk of a short term move back to the upside towards 0.7649. A daily close below the doji's low of 0.7593 is essential to keep the bearish momentum going.