Daily Forex Analysis by Orbex

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 28/04/2016

The markets have been volatile over the past few hours with major central bank decisions. The Fed left rates unchanged and so did the RBNZ and the BoJ. While the yen is strengthening currently, there is scope for a pullback in the near term. Meanwhile, EURUSD could be looking to target the 1.14 handle while gold, aiming for 1250 is in the process of making a head and shoulders pattern on the 4-hour chart.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD closed bullish yesterday marking the third day of bullish close. Price action indicates the potential for further upside in the euro over the near term, but the medium-long term forecasts show the bearish bias staying intact. Support is identified near 1.130 - 1.1275, which could see the euro dip and establish support at this level. In such a scenario, EURUSD could potentially test 1.425 - 1.140 which is a strong resistance level. As long as this resistance holds, EURUSD could potentially start looking weaker with 1.13 and 1.12 coming in as the near-term targets.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.2): USDJPY has fallen sharply and is expected to move back to the 108 levels to test the 18th April lows. As long as this support holds, USDJPY could be looking to form a near-term basis for a move towards 112.5. The bias could become invalidated on a daily close below 108 with some convincing candlestick patterns at this level. This could potentially bring back bearish convictions which could see USDJPY attempt to test the 105 levels.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.45): GBPUSD has formed an inside bar yesterday after a brief test to 1.4635 the day before. The inside bar pattern is likely to spell a breakout trade in the making. The downside is well supported at 1.4425 support, which marks the inverse head and shoulders neckline resistance on the daily chart. Establishing support here could see GBPUSD look for gains near 1.4635 - 1.4745. On the 4-hour chart, we can see GBPUSD attempting to push lower following the rising wedge consolidation. As long as prices remain below 1.45845 - 1.4635, the bias remains to the downside for 1.443 - 1.4425 (the daily inverse H&S neckline). This would also result in a higher low being posted. A close below 1.4425 could send GBPUSD lower to the next support at 1.431 - 1.430.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1247): Gold prices continue to push higher maintaining its bullish momentum since the past few days with 1250 back in sight. However, the momentum is showing signs of waning at the current levels, although at a risk of a spike higher in the near term. The 4-hour chart currently shows a head and shoulders pattern forming with the neckline support at 1230 - 1225 while the head spiked to 1269.5 on April 21st. As long as this high is not breached, Gold prices could potentially form the right shoulder around the 1250 handle. A break of the 1230 - 1225 support could see a measured move lower to the 1205 - 1200 levels.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 03/05/2016

Gold prices posted a new high yesterday, briefly trading above $1300, last seen in January last year. However, the daily candlestick closed in a doji pattern which could see a near-term downside on a lower close today. EURUSD was also bullish yesterday rallying to last year September highs of 1.15 and could be looking for a test to 1.16.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.15): EURUSD closed above 1.147 breaking above 14th September highs. Price action in EURUSD could now target 24th August highs of 1.16. Failure to break higher could see EURUSD start to consolidate at the current levels, with the potential to dip back to the support at 1.140 level. The bias in EURUSD remains to the upside unless prices break below 1.140 convincingly.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (106.1): USDJPY closed in a small bodied candlestick pattern yesterday near the 106 level. Price action is currently flat, but the downside bias could see USDJPY test below 106. Next support level is identified at 105.375. On the 1-hour chart time frame, the price is moving inside a triangle pattern which could signal a potential upside on a breakout for 107.38. A breakout lower could see USDJPY continue to push lower to the next support level.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.46): GBPUSD closed bullish above the previous session's doji high on the daily chart which could indicate further upside. Price action on the daily time frame is trading in the resistance zone of 1.4743 - 1.4635 which could see limited gains in the near term unless price breaks out above 1.4743 which could then extend the gains. On the 4-hour chart, the bearish divergence continues to play out, but the downside bias is formed only on a break below the current minor support at 1.4635.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1294): Gold prices posted a new 52-week high yesterday, but prices closed in a doji pattern, which could indicate a temporary pause in the rally. A daily close below the doji's low at 1287.73 will, however, confirm near-term weakness in the precious metal, which could see gold drop to 1231.50 level of support. On the 4-hour chart, we notice a price failure to rally to the outer median line which indicates a near-term decline lower. Support levels near 1275 - 1276 will offer an initial support followed by 1262 - 1258 ahead of the stronger support near 1231.50.

 

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Daily Forex Market Preview, 04/05/2016

Failure to hold on to the gains made in the early part of the week near the $1300 level has seen Gold prices continue to pull back following the doji pattern two days ago. A bearish continuation today could see further downside in Gold ahead of the US ADP payrolls report and Friday's non-farm employment data.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.14): EURUSD tested the $1.160 handle yesterday but closed on a bearish note settling at 1.1496, indicating a near-term pullback to the upside. Support at 1.147 remains the immediate level of interest, a break below which could see EURUSD extend its declines to 1.130. The bearish divergence on the daily chart points to a deeper pullback that will see EURUSD test the 1.10 handle over the next few weeks.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (107.2): USDJPY closed yesterday on a modestly bullish note, pulling back from the lows of 105.550. A continued upside momentum could see the recovery push USDJPY towards 110.67 in the near term which marks a strong resistance level that was previously supporting prices. A break above 110.67 could see further bullish momentum in USDJPY for a test to 117 - 116.21 resistance. Minor support at 106.565 is likely to be tested ahead of further gains to the upside. However, a break below this support could see USDJPY either continue to consolidate below the support and the recent lows or extend declines lower.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.45): GBPUSD closed in a bearish engulfing pattern on the daily chart after a brief test to the resistance high near 1.4743. Engulfing the past two sessions, the downside momentum could see GBPUSD test the lower support at 1.4425. As long as this support holds, which was the resistance neckline of the inverse head and shoulders patterns, GBPUSD is poised to the upside with further gains likely only on a break above the current resistance near 1.4743 - 1.4635. Below the support at 1.4425, GBPUSD could slip towards 1.4312 - 1.430 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1280.5): Gold prices are into their second day of declines following the doji pattern that was formed at the top end of the rally to $1300. The downside could see Gold prices slip to 1275 support, but overall, gold remains well positioned to the upside above the 1200 handle. On the 4-hour chart, looking at the Stochastics, there is scope for 1275 - 1276 support likely to offer a short term bounce, but the upside is likely to be limited to the currently broken support at 1291 - 1289 which could be tested for resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 05/05/2016

Economic data from the US yesterday was broadly positive helping to strengthen the US dollar, but the markets pulled back towards the end of the day. Ahead of tomorrow's nonfarm payrolls report, markets could remain sideways. GBPUSD could potentially see some strong moves as the currency trades within a key resistance and support levels, with the downside likely to move for a test to 1.430 support.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.14): EURUSD closed in a small bodied candlestick pattern yesterday which could indicate a temporary pause to the decline while at the same time opening the risk for another move to the upside. Prices are seen to be well supported by 1.1470 support, and unless the support breaks, there is a potential for EURUSD to test the upside in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD is forming a steep bullish flag pattern that could signal further upside. But the previous highs at 1.15925 must be cleared for further upside in prices.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (107.1): USDJPY continues to push higher on the daily chart with the Stochastics nearly signaling a bullish reversal. Resistance is seen near 108 - 107.85, which needs to be cleared on a daily session to signal further upside to the next main resistance at 110.672. On the 4-hour chart, we notice a hidden divergence, with the Stochastics printing a higher high against price's lower high indicating a near-term downside. Support is seen near 106.60 which needs to hold failing which, USDJPY could resume its declines to test the previous lows.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.45): GBPUSD continued to drift lower but so far has not tested the support at 1.44250. The 4-hour chart shows a possible retest to the upside near 1.4635 - 1.45845 to test the breakout level. Establishing resistance here could signal the downside to 1.4425 followed by 1.4312 - 1.430. The bearish bias is invalidated if GBPUSD closes above the identified resistance level, in which case, price action could continue pushing higher towards 1.4740.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1281.5): Gold prices posted a two-day low yesterday, but the declines were quickly rejected with prices closing back higher. Support at 1275.99 was clearly strong enough to push gold back above this level. Resistance at 1291 - 1289 remains likely to be tested, and a break above this resistance could open further upside in gold. A break below 1275 could, however, see gold prices dip to the next support at 1262 - 1258 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 06/05/2016

April jobs report will be the market mover today and could potentially dictate the short-term direction in prices. While gold, EURUSD and USDJPY have all recovered from their recent strong moves, a short-term pullback is likely on the cards as gold continues to remain bullish and could eye 1290 while EURUSD sitting at the 1.14 key support could see a rally back to 1.1490.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.14): The continuation following the reversal near 1.16 has sent the EURUSD to 1.1405 lows right near the support level of 1.14 - 1.1380. Resistance is seen near 1.15195 - 1.15975, which could see a bit of a retest if the declines manage to hold at the current support level. On the 1-hour chart, we see a bullish divergence, which when combined with the price at support, signals a move to the upside. However, this could potentially form a median line failure, which will eventually see EURUSD fall back lower. A break below 1.140 - 1.1380 could see EURUSD push lower to 1.1217 - 1.1143.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (107.1): USDJPY has managed to push higher and is now closer to the resistance at 108 - 107.85. If price action doesn't rally higher to test this resistance, we could potentially expect to see near-term declines on the card, as seen by the hidden divergence on the 4-hour chart. USDJPY could fall back within 106.58 and 105.70 levels ahead of further upside. A potential break above 108 resistance could pave the way for USDJPY to test 110.67 - 111.31 resistance.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD closed with a doji pattern yesterday and today's price action could be decisive. A bullish close could see GBPUSD move towards the previous April 28th highs above 1.4635 or a bearish close below the doji low could see the support at 1.4425 being broken for a test to 1.420. On the 4-hour chart, with the brief test to 1.474 resistance, GBPUSD eventually broke down below 1.4635 - 1.45845 minor support/resistance and could potentially move higher to test this broken support for resistance ahead of a decline to 1.4312 - 1.430. A bearish close on GBPUSD today below the doji's low could signal further continuation to the downside towards 1.420 and eventually to 1.415 - 1.41265.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1278): Gold prices have eased back on their momentum with the past three candlesticks closing in a small bodied pattern, This could potentially indicate a risky move in the near term. The 4-hour chart shows a possible bullish pennant continuation pattern which could spell further upside in Gold, but subject to price action clearing above 1291.41 - 1290 level which is likely to be tested for resistance. A bullish breakout here could see gold position itself for a stronger breakout potentially breaking above the 1300 handle. Alternately, failure to clear the resistance at 1290 - 1291 could see a failed pattern, that could open up the downside risks for a dip to 1262.65 - 1258.25.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 09/05/2016

Friday's jobs report was soft, but the US dollar managed to hold its ground. However, a further continuation from Friday's price action is needed to confirm the continuation of the prices. The British pound is, however, starting to look weak trading at a key support level, which if it fails could see further downside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD closed Friday with a doji pattern with the highs briefly testing 1.1470. A daily close below the doji's low at 1.1386 could signal further declines in prices. On the 4-hour chart, rice action is sitting right near the 1.140 - 1.1380 support level, which if holds could see another move to the upside to test 1.1519 - 1.1497 resistance. A close above 1.1519 could, however, see further bullishness in prices, while to the downside, support failure at 1.1380 could see a move to 1.12170.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (107.6): USDJPY is currently struggling to clear 107.955 resistance following Friday's spinning bottom candlestick pattern. A close above 107.955 is needed for the price to confirm further upside, while to the downside, we could expect some ranging price action. On the 4-hour chart, following the hidden divergence, price action fell to 106.60 support and is now attempting another move to the upside. Resistance near 108 - 107.955 will be key for further upside in USDJPY.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD is back near the support at 1.4425. If the support fails, we could expect to see further downside in prices with an eventual move lower to test 1.420 support. If the current support holds, GBPUSD could be looking higher in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, price action is currently near the minor support at 1.44250. Any bounces off this support are likely to stay limited in the near term for the resistance at 1.4584 while 1.4312 - 1.430 will be the lower support that could hold prices.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1279): Gold prices are currently moving lower following Friday's bullish close. Support at 1275.90 will be likely tested on the downside. If the support holds, Gold is likely to stay range bound above 1275.90 and resistance at 1291 - 1289. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish breakout remains in play but subject to price clearing the above resistance. If the lower support fails, gold prices could slip sharply falling to 1262.65 - 1250 level of support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 10/05/2016

Lack of any clear fundamentals yesterday from the US or the Eurozone saw the markets trading flat for the most part. The yen got a boost with some strong rhetoric from Japan's finance minister which now see's USDJPY trading above 108. Watch for a potential dip and a higher low to confirm further upside bias as USDJPY is likely to recover above the 108 levels for a move to 110 and 112 initially.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD was trading in a small range yesterday following the doji pattern last Friday. Trading at the support level of 1.14 - 1.1380, EURUSD could possibly extend the declines if the support gives way with the next main support noted at 1.1217. To the upside, if the current support at 1.1380 holds, EURUSD could retest the resistance level at 1.14975 - 1.150, but the upside gains could remain limited, leaving EURUSD vulnerable to potential declines in the near term.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.8): USDJPY managed to break above the minor support at 108 and continues to push higher. The hidden bearish divergence remains in play which opens the downside risk. But with 108 level being cleared any corrections are likely to be limited near 108 with the possibility of a dip towards 107.36. Forming a possible higher low on the dip could confirm the upside bias in USDJPY, which we expect will see a potential rally towards 110 - 112.0 levels in the medium term.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD formed a spinning bottom pattern yesterday coming after nearly four days of consecutive declines. With the pattern formed just below the 1.4425 support, we could expect to see price action either breakout to the upside which needs to be confirmed with a daily close above yesterday's high of 1.4480 or the low at 1.4374 for a move to 1.420. On the 4-hour chart, price action is seen consolidating near the 1.4425 support level with resistance at 1.45845 - 1.4635 a level most likely to be tested on an upside breakout.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1263): Gold prices posted a strong decline yesterday, and the bearish momentum is likely to see further downside in gold. On the 4-hour chart, the failed bullish pennant pattern saw price action stalling near the previously broken support level to establish resistance at 1291 - 1290 before prices fell sharply to the lower support at 1262 - 1260 levels. If the current support holds, gold could attempt another rally towards 1273 - 1271 which marks a minor support level that was broken. Establishing resistance here could confirm further downside, but if prices break above this level, another retest to 1290 is likely.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 11/05/2016

Gold prices moved to $1270 early today as noted in yesterday's daily report. Price action in gold is likely to form a near-term top which could see a much-needed correction start. Meanwhile, GBPUSD forms an inside bar at support which could see a short term momentum led breakout to the upside.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD posted declines for 6 consecutive days with price closing at 1.1371 yesterday. However, the range (open/close) of the candlesticks has declined to indicate a lack of momentum. This could potentially signal a near-term correction to the upside. Resistance is seen near 1.1470 while a close below yesterday's low at 1.1358 could signal further downside to 1.130. On the 4-hour chart, price action continues to consolidate near the support zone of 1.14 and 1.1380 and has formed a falling wedge pattern with a doji formed and the current 4-hour candlestick staying bullish. A bullish close here and preferably above the doji's high of 1.1381 could signal an upside breakout. While 1.1470 remains a key level to watch, EURUSD could rally to as high as 1.14975 to form a lower high.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.8): USDJPY is currently bearish but price briefly opened higher. A bearish close today could signal a move to 107.955 - 107.70 support. Watch for a lower high in USDJPY which could signal a move to 111.0 in the near term. On th 4-hour chart, the hidden divergence is currently seeing prices falling lower after a brief test near 109.35 - 109.73 resistance. The downside is likely to be limited near 108 - 107.360, which could confirm the bottom being in place and could start a rally to the resistance of 109.73 - 109.35 and eventually to 111.0.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD formed an inside bar yesterday with prices closing bullish but within the Monday's high and low range. The inside bar comes near the 1.4425 support, which marks the previous resistance level which snapped, sending GBPUSD towards April 28th higher close at 1.4673. An upside breakout here could see another rally, but it is very likely that GBPUSD will form a lower high indicative of a move to the downside unless the resistance zone of 1.4743 - 1.4635 is broken. On the 4-hour chart, a descending wedge pattern confirms this view with price moving higher above 1.4425. Initial resistance is seen at 1.4535, which could be the likely target. In the medium term, a higher low near 1.4535 - 1.4585 could see GBPUSD correct lower to 1.43 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1270): Gold prices formed a doji yesterday after Monday's bearish declines. Price action is showing signs of fading momentum which could see a near term top being confirmed. As long as gold doesn't break above $1300, we suspect that a correction to 1200 will be likely, provided gold can manage to break 1230 support. On the 4-hour chart, the falling median line is showing a correction to retest the broken support at 1273 - 1271. Establishing resistance here could confirm a move lower, but there is a risk of a break higher. In this case, gold could consolidate between 1291 - 1289 resistance and 1273 - 1271 support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 12/05/2016

After conquering the 1270 handle, gold prices are pulling back ahead of another leg in the rally that could see gold test the 1290 levels. Meanwhile, EURUSD is posting a modest pullback ahead of a test to 1.149 - 1.150. GBPUSD could be the pair to watch which has practically stalled for the last three days. With the BoE monetary policy report and the inflation report due today, GBP crosses could come under pressure. Of interest is a support failure near 1.4425 which could invalidate the bullish bias in GBPUSD.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD closed on a bullish note yesterday posting a two-day high. Price action is inching closer to the 1.149 handle which is the resistance level that is expected to be retested. The bias remains mixed at this point, and only a resistance failure between 1.14975 - 1.151 will confirm a move to the downside. On the 4-hour chart, the descending wedge breakout confirms the move to the upside, but we anticipate a short-term decline to retest the breakout level around 1.140.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.6): USDJPY was bearish yesterday, and it is likely that the declines will continue to retest the recently broken resistance level at 107.955 - 107.73 to establish support. On the 4-hour chart, we currently notice a pullback from the recent declines which could see a correction to the 109 region ahead of an impending decline towards the 107.36 levels.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD closed with a small body range pattern yesterday near the support of 1.4425. The flat momentum here is indicative of a potential breakout in the near term. Ideally, the bias remains to the upside with prices sitting at the neckline of the inverse head and shoulders pattern. Resistance is seen near 1.4535 - 1.4585 levels. Failure to break above this region could see GBPUSD slide towards 1.43 and eventually to 1.415, which will invalidate the daily chart's inverse head and shoulders pattern.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1273): Gold prices reversed with a bullish close yesterday following the previous day's spinning bottom pattern. Prices are seen to be currently pulling back ahead of what could be further upside in gold. The unfilled gap sitting near 1290 looks like a potential level that gold prices could rally to, and a close above 1291 on the daily chart could signal another attempt to test the 1300 levels and higher.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 13/05/2016

The British pound remains range bound with prices going nowhere for the 4th consecutive day. Meanwhile, EURUSD slipped back into the support zone but is at risk of a decline to 1.121 levels if another bearish day is seen. To the upside, however, there is scope for a test of previous resistance at 1.1497. Eurozone and German flash GDP estimates and US retail sales and PPI will be the main events to watch for today, especially retail sales which, analysts expect to see a strong rebound.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD formed an inside bar yesterday and on the 4-hour chart, we notice prices slipping back to the support. The euro sits near a critical price level of 1.13716 where a daily close below this level could see the support level give way and open the euro for further declines to 1.12170. Alternately, should price managed to turn bullish above 1.13716, the expected bullish move should see prices test 1.14975 resistance.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.8): USDJPY was bullish but failed to post any highs. With the expected retest to 107.955 support anticipated, any further upside moves are unlikely in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, following the break of the rising median line and a retest to the resistance at 109.356, the Stochastics also confirms a bearish divergence indicating a short-term correction to 108 through 107.360 region of support. The bullish bias remains intact as long as USDJPY does not break below this lower support.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD closed with a doji pattern yesterday and marks a fourth consecutive day of price action consolidating near 1.4425 support. The bias remains mixed for the moment and price action could move in either direction. On the 4-hour chart, the ranging price action is more evidenced with prices turning flat near 1.4425 while an attempt to test the resistance at 1.4535 was rejected. The British pound is, however, likely to consolidate in the near term as we expect a more firm test of resistance at 1.4535.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1268): Gold reversed the previous day's gains yesterday and closed on a bearish note at 1263 after rising to 1281 highs. The daily chart shows gold sitting near the dynamic support off the lower median line and could still rise to the 1290 levels. Confirming this view, the 4-hour chart has currently printed a higher low near 1262 and a follow through from here could see a test to 1290. However, price action will likely struggle near the minor resistance of 1271 - 1273. To the downside, a daily close below 1258 could invalidate any bullish bets.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 16/05/2016

Following Thursday's doji pattern GBPUSD has broken out to the downside near 1.4425 support indicating a move lower in the coming days. Overall, the markets are likely to remain flat today for the most part ahead of important releases including inflation data and FOMC meeting minutes later in the week.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD has closed on a bearish note on Friday following the inside bar from the previous day. Prices have managed to seek support near 1.130 which if followed through could see a modest bounce. The 4-hour chart shows an inside bar formation and the breakout here could be key for price action to test the 1.138 - 1.14 level of broken support for the resistance. There is scope for the minor support at 1.1298 - 1.12695 to hold for a move back to 1.138.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.8): Price action in USDJPY daily chart was limited, but the 4-hour chart shows a strong reversal near 109.35 resistance level. A follow through here could see the dollar slip towards support at 108 - 107.36 levels in the near term. As long as price action is supported above this region, USDJPY is biased to the upside.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD closed Friday's session on a bearish note reversing off the doji candlestick pattern near 1.4425. The bearish pattern here could see the declines extending to the next main support at 1.42. In the near term, any pullbacks could see price struggle to break above 1.4425 which could see a retest and above 1.4425, further gains could see a firm test of resistance near 1.4535. Ahead of 1.42 support, the near-term support at 1.4312 - 1.43 will be of importance.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1268): Gold prices have found dynamic support near the 20-day moving average and the lower median line on the daily chart. But the upside price action looks unlikely especially with the doji pattern that was formed on Friday near 1273 - 1272 support/resistance level. Price action is likely to remain choppy with the upside looking towards 1291 - 1290 while to the downside 1250 - 1243 remains as support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 17/05/2016

After a slow start to the week, the pace of economic data increases with UK and US inflation data due for release. GBPUSD is making some steady gains in early trading ahead of the monthly inflation report while gold prices remained mixed in yesterday's trading. The EURUSD was subdued in yesterday's trading, but that could change when the markets open today.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.13): EURUSD was little changed in yesterday's trading with the single currency finding support above 1.30. On the 4-hour chart, price action remains rather flat with in the process of forming a bullish divergence, which could see a possible move to 1.138 - 1.140 initially. Further upside above 1.140 looks bleak at this point unless price closes above 1.140 in which case, a move to 1.14975 is more possible. In the near term, EURUSD remains range bound within 1.1380 resistance and 1.12695 support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (108.9): USDJPY is trading flat for five consecutive days with price action heading nowhere. Trading above 107.95 the bias remains to the upside for a move to 110.67 resistance to the upside ahead of 109.35 - 109.73 levels. On the 4-hour chart, USDJPY continues to show the bearish divergence which could see a correction towards 107.36 support.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.44): GBPUSD closed bullish yesterday and is already making some early gains having moved above 1.4425 level. Resistance is seen near 1.4535 which could cap the gains in the near term, but a move to 1.4635 cannot be ruled out. To the downside, 1.4312 - 1.43 remains the support level of interest.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1279): Gold closed in a doji yesterday after testing the highs above 1288. But with prices trading below the 1291 - 1289 resistance level, the bias remains to the downside. A break of the current support near 1273 - 1271 could see further downside in gold for a test of 1262 - 1258 levels ahead of the key 1250 support.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 18/05/2016

The markets at large, especially the EURUSD and USDJPY remain range bound, but that could change after the release of the FOMC meeting minutes due later in the evening. Ahead of the big event, UK's employment data will be the key price mover in GBPUSD.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.129): EURUSD closed with another small bodied candlestick pattern yesterday trading within a range for the second consecutive session. Price action is again looking to test the 1.130 support level, and a daily close to the downside could accelerate the declines to 1.120 and to lower support levels. On the 4-hour chart, we see a possible bearish flag pattern forming with prices currently looking to breakout lower. A confirmed move here could see EURUSD slip towards 1.1217 support. However, if the bearish flag pattern fails, this could see an accelerated rally towards 1.1138 resistance.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.10): USDJPY closed in a small bodied candlestick pattern yesterday, but no significant moves yet from the range. Price action was seen testing the 109.73 - 109.35 resistance level again but with little success. The continued consolidation seen here could infer an impending breakout in the near term. Support at 108 - 107.85 will be the first level to watch for, following a move to 107.36 levels. The downside at the moment looks very strong but in the near term, USDJPY remains range bound within these said levels.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.443): GBPUSD attempted to close on a bullish note yesterday but the failure to clear the recent doji pattern's high is a sign of caution. Prices remain consolidating near 1.4425 levels with the upside capped near 1.4635 - 1.460 resistance levels. The Stochastics on the daily chart has moved into oversold levels, which could signal a modest break higher. On the 4-hour chart price action tested the 1.453 resistance but again this was met with a strong rejection. Overall, GBPUSD remains range bound within 1.453 resistance and 1.431 support.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1275): Gold prices attempted to close bullish yesterday following the previous day's doji pattern. Price action in gold remains flat at the moment, but the daily chart shows prices the dynamic support of the 20 days EMA and the lower median line. On the 4-hour chart, gold is supported above 1273 - 1271 and could remain range bound above this levels, but a risk of a breakdown of the support could see gold slip towards 1262.65 - 1258.25 levels.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 19/05/2016

The US dollar got a boost from the Fed's minutes yesterday which has come out hawkish than expected. The euro, gold, and yen weakened against the greenback, but the sterling remained resilient. However, GBPUSD is limited in its upside at 1.46 and could see a move lower in the coming weeks. For EURUSD, USDJPY and Gold a modest pullback is likely ahead of further trend continuation.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.122): EURUSD slipped below the 1.130 support with a bearish candlestick following the previous two days of flat price action. A test of 1.120 cannot be ruled out, but the declines are likely to be limited in the near term. The 4-hour chart's bearish flat pattern has seen prices fall to the 127.20% Fib extension level but is supported by the lower support zone near 1.12170 - 1.120. Any upside bounces could see a move back to 1.1282, and a break above this bear flag's low could see a retest of the 1.138 - 1.140 resistance level.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.98): USDJPY continues to push higher, but price action is capped by the 50-day EMA. The retest of 107.955 still remains an open question. On the 4-hour chart, further bullish momentum is unlikely at the current levels with the recently broken resistance level at 109.73 - 1.9.35 likely to be tested. But a break below this resistance could see USDJPY retest the break out from the median line near 108 levels.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.457): GBPUSD posted an impressive rally yesterday testing 1.46 highs. But this level coincides with the main horizontal resistance zone and a retest of the median line on the daily chart. The lower high formed in GBPUSD could signal a move lower with 1.42 being the most ideal support level that could be tested. The main resistance is seen at 1.4635, and as long as price doesn't close above this level, GBPUSD could be pushing lower in the near term, with the first support at 1.43 ahead of a move to 1.42.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1258): Gold prices declined yesterday, and the breakout from the lower median line on the daily chart signals a move lower. However, price action is at the 1260 - 1258 support level, and we expect a modest bounce off this support. 1289 - 1290 remains a level of interest in the near term. On the 4-hour chart, we can see the price action currently attempting to hold on to the support zone at 1262 - 1258. Near term, gold could stay range bound below 1273 - 1272 resistance.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 20/05/2016

Despite falling by over one-percent, gold prices managed to recover in the near term, but the upside bias is increasingly weakening while 1250 support level is back into focus. The dollar is looking a tad weaker after the recent gains, and the markets could be in for a modest pullback. EURUSD will be looking to bounce off the 1.120 handle for a move back to 1.13 in the near term while GBPUSD looks weaker at 1.4635

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.120): EURUSD's declines were again limited yesterday, but price action fell to the lower end of the support range at 1.120. The small range formed yesterday near the support could result in a possible near term pullback off this support level with EURUSD moving back close to 1.130. On the 4-hour chart, price action's declines confirmed with that of the bearish flag pattern. With prices trading close to the outer median line, a break above 1.12170 could see a move back to 1.130 followed by 1.1380.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (110.14): USDJPY has been capped by the 50 day EMA at 110 region and a pullback is likely towards 108 levels in the near term. To the upside, prices can potentially move towards 110.67 level of resistance. Support has been established at 109.733 - 109.356 and only a break below this support will see a move towards 108. The momentum in USDJPY is showing signs of easing and a near term correction to 108 - 107.5 is very likely as a result.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.459): GBPUSD closed with a spinning top yesterday after rallying to 1.4635. The price action marks the retest of this resistance level that was previously tested in early May. A decline off the 1.4635 - 1.4743 could see GBPUSD fall back to the lower support at 1.44250 with the next main support at 1.431 - 1.430. Only a confirmed break with a bullish candlestick above 1.4635 will clear the way for more upside in GBPUSD.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1254): Gold prices fell sharply yesterday but managed to recover near the lows of 1243, which was also supported by the 50 day EMA. 1264 is now the level to watch for as any upside gains could be limited here, but at the same time, a break above 1264 could again keep gold biased to the upside. In the near term, the H4 chart shows gold will likely fall back to 1250 handle for support. As long as this support holds, gold prices could remain range bound.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 23/05/2016

The US dollar has posted steady gains for three weeks now and ahead of an important week that will see US durable goods orders, revised Q1 GDP estimates, Fed voting member speeches including Fed Chair Janet Yellen's speech this Friday, the dollar looks vulnerable at the current levels.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.120): EURUSD has reached its bearish flat target last Thursday and has since then moved into trading in range. Price action sits in the support zone of 1.1217 - 1.1143, and we suspect that the downside risks are limited from here. A pullback towards 1.140 - 1.138 is likely to emerge over the week. EURUSD remains biased to the downside so the short term expected a pullback to test the resistance near 1.140 - 1.138 is likely to offer a good opportunity for sellers of the single currency. The daily candlesticks on Thursday/Friday have been small in their ranges and with 1.120 main support, it validates the move to 1.13 - 1.140. In the event that EURUSD slips below 1.120, depending on the momentum, the next lower support will be at 1.110.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.80): USDJPY has failed to clear the 50 period daily EMA for the past three sessions. The 50-day EMA sits a few pips below the 111.0 round number resistance which could cap potential rallies. The support near 107.95 - 107.50 remains a key level of interest as prices have not tested this broken support leaving USDJPY vulnerable to the downside. USDJPY has also been rising steadily for the past three weeks with the previous two weekly sessions clearing the 107.95 - 107.50 support. However as mentioned earlier, with this support level not being tested just as yet the downside risks are considerable.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.451): GBPUSD closed Friday's session on a strong bearish note with the previous day's candlestick closing with a doji right near the 1.4635 - 1.4743 resistance level. While the inverse head and shoulders pattern is obvious on the daily chart, the fact that prices have made a lower high above the neckline support/resistance at 1.44250 makes the bullish pattern questionable. Unless the support at 1.4425 holds, GBPUSD remains at risk of a sharp decline towards 1.42.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1254): Gold prices have fallen for the past three daily sessions, but despite intraday dips below 1250, gold has managed to close above 1250 for the past two daily sessions. Resistance is seen at 1264 - 1270, which is likely to be tested as the downside remains limited for now. Support at 1240 - 1245 will be key to watch for any potential reversal at these lows. To the upside, only a strong price action above 1270 will determine if gold prices can push higher, so for the moment, gold remains stuck below 1270.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 25/05/2016

Following a nearly flat price action for the past few days, there were some strong declines across the board as the US dollar strengthened. While gold prices fell sharply towards 1230 levels, EURUSD fell towards 1.1150 support. A reversal off the respective support levels could see the start of a near term pull back in prices.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.115): EURUSD declined to 1.1150 minor support yesterday posting a low at 1.1140. Price action is likely to see a short term reversal around the current levels to rally back towards 1.120. The untested resistance level which previously acted as support is like to be tested near 1.138 - 1.140 level if price action manages to hold out at the current support and breakout from the falling price channel. To the downside, below 1.1150, EURUSD could likely continue its declines towards 1.110.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.88): USDJPY is still consolidating within the 50 and 20 day EMA's on the daily chart with price action trading flat for the most part. However, multiple attempts to clear above 110.67 resistance is likely to see USDJPY pull back lower to 107.95 - 108.0 support levels. The 4-hour chart shows the USDJPY breaking out from the median line and bounce off the support at 109.73 - 109.35. Forming a lower high here, a break of the lower support could see a test to 108.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.46): GBPUSD reversed its declines yesterday to close back at 1.4635 resistance. A close above this resistance zone between 1.4743 - 1.4635 is needed for further upside. Support at 1.4425 remains in focus and could likely hold any further declines. On the 4-hour chart, price action has formed a lower high after testing 1.4635. A follow through from this resistance could see GBPUSD test the downside to 1.4312 - 1.430.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1228): Gold prices broke down strongly yesterday testing the 1230 support level. Further downside is likely to see gold prices test 1190 support. To the upside, any pull backs could see prices stalling near the 1264 - 1270 resistance. On the 4-hour chart, the support zone at 1230 - 1225 has been holding prices so a near term retracement is likely towards 1250.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 26/05/2016

EURUSD has been trading flat at the 1.114 level of support which could indicate a retracement on a break above 1.120. The upside remains limited with the resistance at 1.138 - 1.140 proving hard to be tested for the moment. GBPUSD, on the other hand, looks poised for further upside towards 1.48 and 1.486 but is at risk of the second GDP revision due today.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.118): EURUSD is looking to post a retracement with price action currently bullish following yesterday's spinning bottom candlestick pattern that was formed after breaking below 1.120 support. On the 4-hour chart, the retracement is evident after the past few sessions saw the EURUSD forming a base near 1.11430. To the upside, 1.1217 will be the first level that needs to be cleared, followed by a possible rally to 1.1380.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.69): USDJPY is posting some declines in early trading today, which comes after price action yesterday was again capped by the 50-day EMA and also the break of the rising trending line. The downside momentum could see prices retrace to the lower support at 107.95 - 107.75 region. However, with the declines currently capped near the 109.73 - 109.35 support, the downside might be limited for now.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.471): GBPUSD has managed to break higher above 1.4635 resistance and is now trading in the resistance zone of 1.4635 and 1.4743. Price action needs to break above 1.4743 in order for a move towards 1.48 handle. With the neckline support at 1.4425 hold, the inverse head and shoulders on the daily chart look to be validated and confirms a move towards 1.4865. Any declines are likely to find support near 1.4635.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1229): Gold prices fell to the lows of 1219 yesterday but the small bodied candlestick pattern formed could see a turnaround if gold manages to close above 1230 today. A higher close could see gold prices retrace towards the 1264 - 1260 region, but still the upside remains limited. On the 4-hour chart, the bullish reversal off the 1230 - 1225 support level is likely to maintain the upside momentum with 1250 resistance coming in as the initial resistance followed by 1264 - 1260.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 27/05/2016

The markets are likely to remain flat in the run up to the US GDP second revision followed by Janet Yellen's speech a couple of hours later. With the hawkish rhetoric gaining momentum, Yellen's speech could be important as investors await for further clues on the rate hike which could be as early as June or July.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

EURUSD (1.118): EURUSD closed bullish yesterday but failure to close above 1.1219 high from two days ago is likely to keep price action biased to either direction. On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken out from the falling price channel, but failure to rise above 1.1217 could see EURUSD range within the price zone of 1.1217 - 1.1143. Only a bullish close above 1.1217 will see further upside in EURUSD towards 1.138 while to the downside, a close below 1.1143 could see prices fall towards 1.110 round number barrier.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

USDJPY (109.9): USDJPY closed bearish yesterday with price action trading flat for nearly 7 consecutive days. Resistance is capped by the 50 day EMA, which could see price rally towards 110.67 if the level breaks. Support at 109.73 - 109.35 has held the declines strongly so far limiting the downside. Only a break down below 109.35 will validate a decline to 108 - 107.36 while to the upside 110.67 - 111.31 remains a likely price zone that could be targeted.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

GBPUSD (1.467): GBPUSD remains trading within the range of 1.4743 - 1.4635. The upside is limited unless there is a strong bullish close above 1.4743 which will then clear the way for a move to 1.48. To the downside, price action could see a possible decline to 1.4425 if the current support at 1.4635 fails. On the 4-hour chart, the support at 1.4635 is likely to be tested ahead of what could be a further rally, but on a close above 1.4712.

Gold Daily Analysis

XAUUSD (1218): Gold prices resumed their bearish momentum yesterday with prices briefly testing 1231.50 before giving up the intraday gains and closing bearish after 1225 support failed. Price action is currently testing the lows at 1214. A break below this level could see a move towards 1210 and 1200 eventually, but the Stochastics shows a bullish divergence taking shape. A retracement above 1230 could see a potential move to 1250 in the near term.

 

[Orbex_Expert]

Daily Forex Market Preview, 30/05/2016

With just one more trading day to go, the US dollar is posed to close on a bullish note in the month of May following a strong and steady decline since January this year. Further upside is likely to continue and will keep the momentum going to the upside. Gold prices have weakened significantly with prices now trading near the $1200 an ounce psychological level which could keep prices supported to the upside in the near term but overall, the bullish rally is clearly fading.

EURUSD Daily Analysis

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EURUSD (1.110): EURUSD has posted a steady decline for the past four weekly sessions, closing Friday at 1.1112. On the 4-hour chart, EURUSD is likely to post a retracement with the current lows in price not confirmed by the Stochastics oscillator. Price action needs to close above 1.1143, in order to validate a retracement which could see a correction to 1.138, which is pending for a retest of resistance confirmation. To the downside, continued momentum could see EURUSD fall further towards 1.110 support.

USDJPY Daily Analysis

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USDJPY (110.9): USDJPY was bullish on Friday closing at 110.34, but price action closed a few pips above the 50 period EMA. The ranging price action is likely to continue with a risk of a brief test to 111.0 resistance. The 4-hour chart shows USDJPY caught within the range of 110.31 - 110.672 resistance and 109.35 support. Further upside is likely only on a break above 111.31 resistance high, while to the downside, 108 support will be tested if the current support at 109.35 breaks.

GBPUSD Daily Analysis

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GBPUSD (1.462): GBPUSD closed bearish on Friday following a brief test to 1.4743. Support at 1.4425 remains a likely level for GBPUSD to test but the downside is limited from the current levels. The 4-hour chart shows price trading below 1.4668 - 1.4647. Any rallies are likely to be capped near this resistance, which could see an eventual decline towards lower support at 1.4461 - 1.44450.

Gold Daily Analysis

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XAUUSD (1203): Gold prices cleared the 1230 support on Friday and closed the 4-hour session in a hammer pattern. Prices slipped down to 1203 in early trading today with the psychological barrier seen at 1200, likely to hold the declines. Resistance at 1230 - 1225 will be the initial level that could cap the rallies, but a break above this level could see a move back to 1250 and eventually to 1262 - 1258 main support level that was broken and which could now be tested for resistance.