Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: candlestick analysis
1 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’s a “Bullish Harami” at the last low, so the current correction will probably go higher. It’s likely to see any bearish candle patterns on the 55 Moving Average. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a strong support by the “Window” and previously formed the “Hummer” and “ Tweezers” are still actual.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the local low and all last candles are strongly bullish. At the same time, it’s likely that any bearish candle pattern arrives afterwards. If so, the market might go into a local downward correction towards the moving average lines.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8092

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: candlestick analysis
1 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The price faced a support at the last “Window” zone, where a “Hammer” was formed previously. It’s likely to see an upward correction towards the level of “Three Methods” pattern and continue the main bearish trend afterwards. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a possible ending of “Thrusting Line” pattern, so the market can go lower to the nearest support line.

There’s an “Inverted Hammer” at the last low, which entered the price into an upward correction. It’s likely that the price will find a resistance on the 34 Moving Average. Also, here’s a possibility to see a bearish reversal pattern on this line.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8091

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
1 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has a downward trend, which faced a support at 1.3878 and the price started a correction afterwards. There’s a “Flag” pattern, so it's likely to see a downward movement to a support area between the levels 1.3834 - 1.3681 until we've got any bullish reversal pattern. If so, the market might start rising towards a resistance area at 1.3931 – 1.3958.

There's a local downward trend on the one-hour chart. The price found a support at 1.3878 and a “Double Bottom” pattern has been formed. Moreover, here’s a “Pennant” pattern as well. It's likely that the pair will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.3958 – 1.4026. However, the price might go to a new downward movement afterwards to a support area under the level 1.3824.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8089

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
1 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market had been falling down since last Friday. The price found a support at 1.0858, which entered the price into a consolidation phase. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge” and a broken up trend, it’s likely to see more selling pressure in the short term. If the pair reaches a support at 1.0809 – 1.0776, it could be a start for a correction towards to a resistance area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0922.

The price has found a support at 1.0858 on the one-hour chart and a consolidation was started from this level. There’s a possible “Flag” pattern in progress, so it’s likely that the price will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0922. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support area between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0809.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8088

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/СHF: buy target - 1.4000
1 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/СHF reversed from strong support zone
-Next buy target - 1.4000

GBP/СHF continues to rise after the earlier upward reversal from the strong support zone surrounding the long-term support level 1.3800 (which also previously reversed the earlier intermediate ABC correction (2) in May of 2015, as can be seen from the daily GBP/СHF chart below). This support zone was further strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band.

Given the strength of the support zone near 1.3800 - GBP/СHF can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.4150.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8095

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 2

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar gained additional support on Tuesday after the unexpectedly strong US manufacturing PMI release. USD index keeps on rising above the 98 figure and we see space for more USD upside this week. Watch the ADP NFP and crude oil inventories figures on Wednesday.

EUR/USD is testing the 1.0850 support, despite the upeat euro zone’s labor market figures. Euro is expected to decline ahead of the ECB March 10th meeting. On Wednesday, pay attention to the euro zone’s PPI – more weakness is expected. We are targeting 1.0500 in the medium term.

As we expected, GBP/USD is moving to the downside. Sales were triggered by the weak manufacturing PMI. The pair attempted to recover above 1.4000 earlier in the day, but came under renewed bearish pressure. Next bearish target lies at 1.3830. Watch the UK construction PMI tomorrow (forecast – upbeat). We are targeting 1.3500 in the medium term as the Brexit topic will dominate the headlines in the coming weeks.

AUD/USD is trading slightly above the 0.7100 mark and has potential for more downside. Australia is scheduled to release Q4 GDP on Wednesday – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.5%. USD/JPY remains supported, but the greenback is still not too confident to break out of the sideways channel. We need a break above 114.00 to confirm the reversal.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8099

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
2 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a local downward trend on the four-hour chart, but yesterday we've got a flat, which faced a support at 1.0858. As far as we’ve got a “Rising Wedge”, it’s likely to see more selling presuare towards a support at 1.0809. The market might start rising afterwards to a resistance at 1.0922.

The price has found a support at the area 1.0858 - 1.0809 on the one-hour chart. An upward correction was started after a “V-Bottom” has been formed. It’s likely that the pair will go higher towards a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.0911. The price might start falling down afterwards to a support at 1.0809.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8102

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
3 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has been rising since a “Triple Bottom” was formed at the last low. The local downward trend has been broken, so it’s likely to see a rise towards a resistance area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4172. If we see a pullback from these levels, the market might start falling down towards a support between the levels 1.4042 – 1.3958.

There’s a consolidation in progress along the support 1.4078. Previously, the local downward trend has been broken. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support area between the levels 1.4152 – 1.4167. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the level 1.4018 and the 55 Moving Average line.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8116

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
3 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

We’ve got a local downward trend on the four-hour chart. Yesterday the price was going up and down in a flat and finally reached a support at 1.0858. It’s likely to see a bearish movement to a support at 1.0809, but then the market might start rising towards a resistance at 1.0922.

The pair has been found a support at 1.0834 and a “V - Top” pattern was formed afterwards, so the market had some reasons to start rising. It's likely that the price will go lower to a support at 1.0809. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance at the downward trend between the levels 1.0858 – 1.0880.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8115

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 4

Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar weakened after the weak unemployment claims figures on Thursday. Block of labor market data on Friday is now in focus – these are the figures that will define the further market dynamics ahead of the Fed’s Mach 16 meeting. NFP are expected to come at 195K in February, while the average hourly earnings are forecasted to surprise to the downside. We expect USD to recover some ground ahead of the release.

EUR/USD has recovered above 1.0900, but remains in a bearish channel. Strong resistance lies at 1.0950, we expect a break lower from here on Friday. Strong support – local low at 1.0820.

GBP/USD is developing a bullish correction and has recovered above 1.4150.This is where 38.2% Fibonaccilies. The bullish momentum remains strong as of now. Daily close above 1.4100 will confirm and inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation.Support is seen at 1.4080 and 1.4040.

AUD/USD is developing a bullish trend. However, resistance at 0.7380/90 could limit the upside. USD/JPY turned down to 114.00. The US labor market figures could trigger a new wave of buying.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8127

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for March 7-13

By Elizabeth Brelugina

US labor market data turned out to be mixed. Despite strong Nonfarm Payrolls, average hourly earnings declined. As a result, the level of 115.00 (38.2% of February decline) still looks like a hard obstacle. Only a daily fix above this point will return power to the bulls. On the downside, support lies at 113.00, 112.20 ahead of 111.00.

In the meantime, the market is starting to expect more action from the Bank of Japan and this is why the pair is trying to stabilize. There’s information that an advocate of aggressive monetary easing may join the central bank’s board at the end of March. The next Bank of Japan’s meeting will be on March 15.

The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak on Monday. A block of Japanese economic statistics is due on Tuesday.

The market’s risk sentiment will also be important for the dynamics of USD/JPY. Chinese National People’s Congress will take place on Saturday. If the nation announces measures to support economy, including fiscal stimulus, the market’s risk appetite will revive reducing demand for the yen as a safe haven.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8139

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for March 7-13

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD tested 1.0825, but found some support because of the general weakness in the US dollar.

The highlight of the week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. The ECB President Mario Draghi said this week that the region’s growth and inflation outlook became worse and that the regulator will have to consider these negative developments at March meeting. European inflation turned negative in February: consumer prices fell by 0.2%.

As a result, the possibility of more easing from the ECB on March 10 is almost 100%. The main question is how much the ECB will do. Traders are quite sure of a 10-basis-point cut. Other options available to the central bank include technical changes to quantitative easing (QE) program or an increase in monthly QE purchases from the current level of 60 billion euro. It’s clear that larger QE will drag the euro down, while the minor changes won’t be an obstacle for the bulls. In addition, European banks complain that negative interest rates are affecting their profitability, so the ECB may announce a multi-tier deposit rate system. Such step will encourage euro-funded carry trade and, consequently, increase bearish pressure on the euro.

In our view, the ECB remembers how it disappointed the market in December when it delivered a too small easing package and will try not to repeat its mistake. The base scenario thus will be to sell the single currency on the event. The euro is vulnerable versus Australian dollar and other higher-yielding commodity currencies.

Resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1165 and 1.1250. Support is at 1.0830 and 1.0710.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8138

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for March 7-13

Kira Iukhtenko

The past week turned to be positive for the UK pound – the pair managed to rebound from the levels below 1.3900 to the levels above 1.4100. However, the bullish move was paused by the mixed US labor market figures on Friday.

Technically, the pair is now testing the levels above 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. What’s more, you may see a clear bullish channel and an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation on the H4 chart. We see potential for a recovery to 1.4250 on the coming week. Key support is seen at 1.4080.

UK economic calendar for the new week is rather light. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures on Wednesday. The market will mostly be driven by the Fed’s expectations – we expect them to decline gradually ahead of the coming March 16 policy meeting in the United States.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8140

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for March 7-13

Kira Iukhtenko

On Friday, the bunch of mixed US labor market figures shook the markets. US NFP surprised to the upside, while the average hourly earnings came out below the forecast. In the current conditions, the second indicator is more important for the Federal Reserve, so the demand for the US dollar declined after all.

Next week we expect the bearish trend for the US Dollar to continue. Traders expect the Fed to reveal concerns on the prospects of the US economy on the March 16th meeting and delay the next step of policy tightening. US economic calendar for the new week is rather light. On Monday, listen to the FOMC members Brainard and Fisher speaking. On Wednesday, a new portion of the March crude oil inventories data will be released, while on Thursday pay attention to the US unemployment claims.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8142

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
7 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The main downward trend has been broken and the price found a resistance on the 55 & 89 Moving Average lines. With this, it’s likely that we will see a decline towards a support at 1.0957. If the bulls takes over and the price starts rising from this level, then it's likely that the pair will test a resistance area between the levels at 1.1032 – 1.1145.

There’s a “Flag” on the one-hour chart, which was finally ended by the bullish rally last Friday towards a resistance between the levels 1.1031 – 1.1145. A “V-Top” pattern was formed afterwards and the price started a downward correction. It’s likely that a decline will go further to an area between the support at 1.0957 and the 89 Moving Average line. However, bulls might come back and try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1113.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8151

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
7 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

We’ve got a local upward trend. The market found a resistance at 1.4234 and a correction was started afterwards. It’s likely to see the price a little bit lower, but if the level 1.4172 acts as a support, the new bullish movement might start towards the support area at 1.4305 – 1.4343.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, a “Flag” was ended and the price started rising once again, but then bulls faced with a resistance at 1.4234. It’s likely that a decline will go on to a support at 1.4167, but then buyers might come back and try to reach a resistance area near the trend line.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8152

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: candlestick analysis
8 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’s a “Window”, which acts like a resistance. Previously, a “High Wave” pattern was formed on this “Window” area. It’s likely that firstly the price will go to a local correction, but then bulls might come back to the market and will try to achieve the upper “Window”. As we can see on the daily chart, here’s a “Deliberation” pattern, but it hasn't been confirmed yet. So, the current correction has a reason to go on until we’ve got any bearish reversal pattern.

The upward trend become stronger since the last “Window” has been closed by several bullish candles. It’s possible to see a bearish “Harami” and a local correction towards the “Window”. The rise is likely going to resume afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8177

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 9

By Elizabeth Belugina

Weak Chinese trade figures affected the market’s risk sentiment, though the negative effect was less because of the seasonal effects: Lunar New Year holidays reduced the nation’s trade activity in February.

Another positive factor is the continuing advance of oil prices. Brent rose above $41 a barrel. Data showed that China’s oil imports rose by 24.5% in February on the annual basis. The weekly data by the EIA will be released Wednesday. Kuwait’s oil minister said that his country will participate in an output freeze if all major oil producers, including Iran, agree to do the same.

EUR/USD approached resistance at 1.1050 (200-day MA). A close above here is needed to allow growth to 1.1100 and 1.1165. The single currency was supported by the market’s cautious sentiment. In addition, German industrial production added 3.3%. Support is at 1.0980 and 1.0960 ahead of 1.0900.

GBP/USD decline from the 1.4250 (50% Fibo of February decline) to 1.4200 area. The Bank of England announced that it has measures in place in order to diminish negative impact on the UK financial system in case of Brexit. Britain will release manufacturing production at 09:30 GMT. There’s downtrend resistance line in the 1.4300 zone. Next resistance is at 1.4350. Support is at 1.4150/00.

USD/JPY slid to 112.75. Japan’s Q4 15 GDP was revised from -1.4% to -1.1% on the annualized basis. The pair is expected to remain in a narrow sideways range with support at 112.50 and 112.15 and resistance at 113.25/50.

AUD/USD found support around 0.7400. The next revel to watch on the upside is 0.7530. Support is at 0.7380. For gold (XAU/USD) resistance is at $1280, while support is at $1260.

Support for USD/CAD is at 1.3287 (200-day MA) and 1.3230 (uptrend support line). The loss of these levels will make the pair vulnerable for a decline to 1.3000. Firstly, however, correction up to 1.3455 is likely. The Bank of Canada is not expected to change its policy (15:00 GMT) as the government plans fiscal stimulus.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8184

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
9 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has found a resistance at 1.1067, which led to the downward correction towards a support at 1.0957. It's likely to see the price even lower. If bears are stopped by a support at 1.0902, the pair might start the upward movement towars a resistance area between the levels 1.1032 – 1.1145.

There's a “Double Top” pattern under a resistance at 1.1067, so the price had a reason to start a consolidation movement and finally a support at 1.0972 was achieved. It’s likely that the price is going to rise towards a resistance at 1.1011, but then bears might try to reach a support area between the levels 1.0939 – 1.0902.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8186

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
9 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has found a resistance on the 89 Moving Average line and a consolidation was started afterwards. It's likely that the downward movement will go on to a support area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4078. However, if we see a pullback from this area, the price are probably going to rise towards the nearest resistance area 1.4193 – 1.4234.

There's a “Triple Top” at the last high, which led to a correction towards the 34 Moving Average. The pair are likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4234, but bears might try to come back afterwards and, so we should keep an eye on a support area between the levels 1.4133 – 1.4078.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8187