Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: buy target - 1.0085
9 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reached buy targets 0.9960 and 1.0000
-Next buy target - 1.0085

AUD/CAD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which recently broke the daily down channel December and the resistance level 0.9960 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The pair today broke above the next resistance level 1.0000 (second buy target set earlier for this instrument).

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0085 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous ABC correction (2)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8194

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: buy targets - 1.1080 and 1.1130
9 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0960
-Next buy targets - 1.1080 and 1.1130

AUD/NZD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 1.0960 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) and which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which previously broke the daily Triangle from October of 2015.

AUD/NZD is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1080 (top of the previous minor impulse wave 1 from October) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward the next buy target at 1.1130.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8193

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: candlestick analysis
9 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The “Window” has acted as a resistance once again, so we’ve got a “Shooting Star” and a “Harami”. If we see a pullback from the nearest support line, it will be a start for a local upward correction. As we can see on the daily chart, there’s a “Doji” and a “Deliberation”, which has been confirmed, so it’s likely to see the following decline until any reversal pattern forms.

There’s an “Engulfing Bearish” and a possible “Three Methods”. The price is likely going to reach a resistance by the “Window” once again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8192

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Norkina: USD/JPY is going to get down
9 March 2016
Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Currency pair USDJPY it was being traded yesterday in a very narrow range within the cloud. Since the beginning of trading the situation was seized by bears, who had taken a direction under the support of Tenkan and Kijun lines (the latter formed a dead cross).

Today's trading also began with the fall in prices. Bearish mood of market participants made a pair to go into negative territory which is under Ichimoku cloud. At the moment, all indicator lines went down. Therefore, it may increase sales.

Technical Levels: Support - 112.70, 112.50, 111.00; resistance - 113.60, 113.30.

Trading recommendations:
1. Sell - 113.20 / 30; SL - 113.50; TP1 - 112.50; TP2 - 111.10.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8191

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
10 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a flat in progress on the four-hour chart. It's likely to see the following bearish movement towards a support at 1.0922. However, bulls might come back to the market afterwards and try to reach the level 1.1067 in a support area between the levels 1.1032 – 1.1145.

The price was going up and down yesterday. We've got a “Double Top” pattern, so it’s likely that the pair will go lower towards a support area between the levels 1.0972 – 1.0939. If we see a pullback from this area, it’ll be a sign that bulls are ready to go to a resistance area between the 34 Moving Average line and the level 1.1011.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8201

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
10 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a consolidation under the main downward trend. It's likely to see the bearish movement towards a support area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4078. The upward correction is probably going to begin afterwards to a resistance area between the levels 1.4148 – 1.4193.

We’ve got a “Triangle” pattern on the one-hour chart. It’s likely that the bearish movement is going to be deeper towards a support area between the 89 Moving Average line and the level 1.4133. The price might start an upward correction afterwards to a resistance area between the 34 and 55 Moving Average lines.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8202

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for March 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

This time the ECB’s president Mario Draghi delivered more easing than the market expected. The central bank lowered main interest rate to 0.00%, cut deposit rate to -0.4% and expanded QE program from €60bn to €80bn a month. In addition, the regulator announced new ultra-cheap, 4-year loans to banks, allowing them to borrow from the ECB at negative interest rates.

The expected effect followed, but was extremely short-lived: after sliding to 1.0825 EUR/USD soared to 1.1200. European bank shares gained, but then reversed down and closed at the negative territory.

Such reaction of the market means that traders doubt that the ECB’s policy is effective. So far excessive monetary stimulus has failed to revive credit in the euro area. Buying of the euro was triggered by Draghi’s comments that the rates won’t be reduced much further.

The single currency may now repeat its December dynamics, when after jumping on the ECB meeting EUR/USD went sideways and stayed in range even after the Federal Reserve’s meeting. The bullish move in the euro could have been in many respects an overreaction. Next week the euro may face negative pressure if the market’s sentiment improves and if the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike this year strengthen. At the same time, the bears probably won’t risk too aggressive shorts.

Resistance is at 1.1250 and 1.1300. Higher levels of 1.1375 (February high) and 1.1460/1.1500 (September and October highs) returned into focus, but an increase there is possible only in case of the fix above 1.1250. Support is at 1.1050 (200-day MA), 1.0980, 1.0900.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8224

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for March 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

Japan released weak statistics during the past week. Only the GDP decline in Q4 wasn’t as big as initially seen. The sentiment of the biggest Japanese producers dramatically worsened in the first 3 months of 2016.

The meeting of the Bank of Japan will take place on Tuesday. The regulator is expected to keep its policy unchanged, although some analysts think that another cut in interest rates is possible in order to revive the nation’s economy.

The current positions of the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan are much alike, and traders have serious doubts about the effectiveness of their policy steps. The euro’s advance after the ECB announced new monetary stimulus measures creates risk of the similar reaction in case the Bank of Japan eases policy. When Japanese central bank reduced deposit rate at the end of January, the yen’s decline on the news was only short-lived. As a result, it’s more likely that the Bank of Japan will decide to save the easing measures for hard times in future. Japanese government bond yields tested record lows in the past week, so many experts think that the BOJ may do more easing only in summer.

Without stimulus from the Bank of Japan, USD/JPY chances for growth are limited. The Federal Reserve’s meeting is another important event of the next week. However, even in case of more hawkish comments by Janet Yellen the outlook will be more negative, as the market’s sentiment will worsen affecting USD/JPY.

The overall technical outlook for the pair still looks bearish. To change the situation the prices will have to rise above 115.00. Next resistance will be at 116.25 (55-day MA). Another bearish factor is yen’s buying from Japanese exporters ahead of the end of Japanese fiscal year this month. The consolidation range is getting narrower. Support is at 112.50, 111.00 and 110.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8225

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for March 14-20

By Kira Iukhtenko

The UK currency extended the upside last week, breaking above 1.4250. The pair holds in a bullish channel since late February and has potential for more recovery next week. Break above 1.4300 will open the way to 1.4350 (61.8% Fibo from the recent decline) and 1.4400 (channel resistance). Support is seen at 1.4250 and 1.4100.

From the fundamental viewpoint, we expect the dovish Fed to support the cable next week. The US central bank is expected to underline the increased external risks for the economy on Wednesday. As for the UK economic calendar, watch the labor market figures on Wednesday and the Bank of England meeting on Thursday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8223

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
14 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market was correcting last Friday. Previously, bulls faced a resistance at 1.4444 and a “V-Top” pattern arrived afterwards. Anyway, it seems like we’ve got a local upward trend here, so the current downward correction is going to end somewhere in the support zone at 1.4343 – 1.4305. If we see a pullback from this area, the rise might resume towards a resistance at 1.4515.

A “Pennant” on the one-hour chart was ended by the extremely fast upward movement. Finally, the price faced a resistance at 1.4444, which led to the current downward correction. It’s likely that bears have enough power to reach a support at 1.4316. If they be stopped by this level, there will be an opportunity for bulls to achieve a resistance at 1.4515.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8232

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: consolidation continues
15 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

We’ve got a “V-Top” pattern at the last high, which led to the current downward movement. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1067. If we see a pullback from this level, then bulls might try to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.1245 – 1.1273.

There’s a flat movement between a resistance at 1.1214 and the 55 Moving Average line, which acts as a support. In the short term, bears are likely going to achieve a support area between the levels 1.1067 – 1.1057. If sellers be stopped by this area, then the price might start rising towards a resistance at 1.1245.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8253

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: V-top stopped the bulls
15 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There’s a local “V-Top”, which led to a decline towards to the 89 Moving Average line. It's likely that the current downward movement is going to be deeper. If bears be stopped by the support at 1.4234 – 1.4193, then bulls will have a chance to reach a resistance area between the levels 1.4393 – 1.4444.

The price has faced a resistance at 1.4444 and a “V-Top” pattern arrived afterwards. So, currently we have a decline in progress. The 89 Moving Average line acts as a support. It's likely that the downward movement is going to reach a support area between the levels 1.4234 – 1.4210. If we see a pullback from this area, then bulls will probably return to the market. In this case we should keep in mind the important levels 1.4371 – 1.4393, which can act as a resistance.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8254

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

3 currencies to buy this spring
15 March 2016
Analysts at Morgan Stanley have picked 3 currencies as the best investments for spring.

1. Japanese yen. Japanese investors have large assets abroad and will repatriate their funds. As a result, demand for the yen will increase and it will strengthen despite the Bank of Japan’s efforts to limit its strength.

2. Swiss franc. Risks for the euro area will remain negative maintaining demand for the franc as a safe haven.

3. US dollar. Demand for American currency will be high because of the lacking good investment opportunities in other markets, especially emerging.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8258

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: sell targets - 1.8800 and 1.8660
16 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD completed minor ABC correction 4
-Next sell targets - 1.8800 and 1.8660

GBP/CAD continues to fall after the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the following resistance levels: the former support trendline of the wide weekly up channel from November of 2014 (acting as resistance now after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave 3), resistance level 1.9200 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the earlier downward impulse from February.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone completed the previous minor ABC correction 4. GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.8800 and 1.8660 (low of impulse 3).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8281

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: sell targets - 1.4000 and 1.3840
16 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/USD falling inside intermediate impulse wave (5)
-Next sell targets - 1.4000 and 1.3840

GBP/USD recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4400 (which reversed the price at the end of February), the upper daily Bollinger Band, 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from December. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing - completing the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) from last month.

GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active intermediate impulse wave (5) toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.4000 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.3840.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8280

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls rip the "wedge" to shreds
17 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The consolidation in a support zone at 1.1145 – 1.1032 was finally ended by the really fast upward movement yesterday, so we’ve got a new high. The price faced a resistance at 1.1245. It’s likely that a correction is going to a support area between the levels 1.1214 – 1.1178. If we see a pullback from this area, then bulls might try to reach a resistance area at 1.1273 – 1.1305.

The downward “Wedge” was broken yesterday. Bulls found a resistance at 1.1245, which led to the current correction. It seems like the bearish movement is going to a support area between the levels 1.1192 – 1.1178. If sellers be stopped here, then buyers can return to the market, so a resistance at 1.1257 – 1.1273 is probably going to be the main target soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8285

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: thud of hoofs after the "V-Bottom"
17 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There’s a “V-Bottom” pattern at the local low, which led to the current upward movement. Finally, bulls faced a resistance at 1.4282, so it’s likely that a correction is coming soon. If the price finds a support at 1.4148, then the market is probable going to rise again towards a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4343.

All Moving Average lines has been broken as well as the local downward trend line. Bulls found a resistance at 1.4282, so we've got a correction here. It's likely that we'll see the market lower. If sellers be stopped somewhere in a support area at 1.4210 – 1.4172, then buyers will have an opportunity to come back and achieve a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4347.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8286

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "window" played into buyers hands
17 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The really strong “Window” has acted as a support, which led to a “Harami” pattern, so we’ve got an upward rally. The last candles are bullish and there aren’t any reversal patterns. It’s likely that the market is going to be higher. As we can see on the Daily chart, yesterday a “Three Methods” pattern was finally ended, so the upward movement will probably go on until any bearish pattern arrives.

The current rally started after a “Doji” was formed on the 89 Moving Average line, which acted as a strong support. The last candles are bullish and we don't have any reversal patterns so far. Despite of a possible downward correction, the market is likely going to be higher in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8290

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: bear's "stars"
17 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’s an “Evening Star” at the last high, which led to the current bearish movement. It’s likely to see a local correction, but then the market is probably going to fall even lower. As we can see on the Daily chart, the “Window” was broken and today’s candle has a chance to be closed below it.

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the last high and as we can see bears like it so much. A “Hammer” has just arrived, but a confirmation hasn't formed yet. So, the main expectation is to see more selling pressure, but a local correction is a still possible.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8292

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: sell target - 1.8600
17 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reached sell target 1.9000
-Next sell target - 1.8600

GBP/AUD has been falling sharply in the last few trading sessions - breaking through the support levels 1.9280 and 1.9000 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active impulse wave (v) – which belongs to the sharp minor impulse wave 5 from the start of February (which previously broke the daily down channel from August).

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.8600 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active minor impulse wave 5).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8294