Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CAD: sell target - 1.2850
17 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CAD reached sell target 1.3200
-Next sell target - 1.2850

USD/CAD recently broke sharply below the support level 1.3200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.3200 intensified the bearish pressure on USD/CAD, accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ② from the middle of January.

The pair today broke the round support level 1.3000. If the price closes today below 1.3000 - USD/CAD can then be expected to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the pivotal support level 1.2850 (which stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (4) in last October).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8295

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: correction in a range of "flag"
18 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has faced a resistance at 1.1337, which led to the current correction. It’s likely that the downward movement is going to reach a support area between the levels 1.1305 – 1.1273. If bears be stopped somewhere in here, then bulls might try to achieve a resistance area at 1.1376 – 1.1409.

The price has been consolidating since we’ve got a resistance at 1.1337. There’s a possible “Flag” in progress, so the price is likely going to reach the lower side of this pattern. If we see a pullback from it, then bulls might come back to the market.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8297

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bearish correction
18 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market was rising yesterday and finally bulls reached a resistance at 1.4515, which led to the current correction. It’s likely to see the pair lower. If the price finds a support at 1.4436 – 1.4393, then buyers are probably going to achieve a resistance at 1.4577.

All Moving Average lines were broken by the fast bullish rally. There's a possible “Flag” pattern, so the price is likely going to reach its lower side near a support area at 1.4436 – 1.4393. In case of a pullback from this zone, bulls will have an opportunity to start a new upward movement.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8299

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bear's "pole star"
18 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The price has found a resistance, which brought some reversal patterns such as a “High Wave” and a “Tweezers”. The last candles are bearish, so the current correction is likely going to the nearest support line. However, we haven’t got any reversal patterns yet on the Daily chart. It means that we can see the market higher after the downward correction ends.

There’re a “Tweezers’, a “Shooting star” and a “Harami” at the last high. The last candles are bearish, so we can expect that the current correction is going to be continued towards the nearest support. If a pullback appears afterwards, then bulls might start a new rally.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8300

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: new "engulfing bearish"
18 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’re a couple of reversal patterns such as a “High Wave” and an “Engulfing Bullish”, so it’s possible that we’ll see an upward movement towards the nearest resistance line. Yesterday’s bearish candle was closed under the “Window” on the Daily chart. It’s likely that we’re going to have a local correction, but bears have an opportunity to return to the market afterwards.

We’ve got an “Engulfing Bullish” and a “High Wave” at the last low, which have been confirmed. In case of the local “Engulfing Bearish” it’s likely to have a downward movement, but it’s a still possible to see bigger bullish correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8301

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: buy target – 1.0000
21 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reversed from support area
-Next buy target – 1.0000

AUD/CAD continues to rise – following the earlier upward reversal from the support area lying at the intersection of the support level 0.9900, the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 from the end of February and the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from December (acting as support now after it was broken). The upward reversal from this support zone started the active minor (b)-wave.

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor (b)-wave toward the next buy target at the parity. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 0.9900.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8330

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: sell target -1.1150
21 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD reversed from pivotal resistance level 1.1340
-Next sell target -1.1150

EUR/USD recently reversed down from the pivotal resistance level 1.1340, which previously reversed the price strongly at the start of February, as can be seen from the daily EUR/USD chart below. The resistance zone near the resistance level 1.1340 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band. The downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1340 stopped the active minor impulse wave 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from the start of December.

Given the overbought reading on the daily Stochastic indicator and the strength of the resistance level 1.1340 - EUR/USD can be expected to fall further from the current levels toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1150.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8329

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 22
21 March 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

Global stock markets showed mixed picture, as investors were unsure. On the one hand, the US Federal Reserve’s more dovish approach is good for the market’s sentiment. On the other hand, oil was under pressure after the first increase in US drilling rigs this year.

EUR/USD kept correcting down from last week’s highs. The retracement may continue to 1.1220 and 1.1145 (23.6% and 38.2% Fibo of February-March advance). Watch the euro area’s key March manufacturing and services PMIs at 08:00-09:00 GMT. German and European ZEW economic sentiment index is due at 10:00 GMT. Depending on the data the market will or will not expect more easing from the central bank. Rise above 1.1375 is needed to open way up to 1.1500.

British pound is affected by Brexit concerns and political problems in the UK (British work and pensions secretary Iain Duncan Smith, a supporter of Brexit, resigned over the weekend). The nation will release inflation figures at 09:30 GMT. The forecast for February CPI is rather positive, though public sector net borrowing is expected to increase. The pair will likely test support at 1.4350 and 1.4280, though there still is buying interest for pound, so have cautious targets. Resistance is at 1.4435 and 1.4515.

USD/JPY will likely recover from 111.00 to 112.30/113.00 if the risk the market’s sentiment improves. However, the overall picture remains bearish. Below 111.00 the greenback will be vulnerable for a decline to the psychological mark of 110.00.

AUD/USD was supported by another increase in iron ore prices. Yet, it will be interesting to hear the comments from the Reserve Bank’s Governor Stevens at 05:30 GMT: the RBA doesn’t like high national currency and may try to talk it down. The pair reached 61.8% Fibo at 0.7675 last week and may retreat to 0.7530/00 before resuming growth.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8332

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears become wedged
22 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. The price faced a support at 1.1245, so we’ve got a downward correction in progress. It’s likely to see the market lower. If the pair forms a pullback from a support area at 1.1217 – 1.1193, then bulls will probably return and try to reach a resistance at 1.1305 – 1.1337.

We’ve got a downward flat in a range of possible “Wedge” pattern. If a pullback from its upper side appears, then the price is likely going to reach the lower side and a support at 1.1193. Finally, there’s an opportunity to see bulls on the market again, so a resistance at 1.1305 – 1.1337 is a still important.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8338

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: decline after the "Double Top"
22 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The last flat was finally broken by bears. Previously, a “Double Top” was formed at the last high, which led to current downward movement. The market is likely going to reach a support at 1.4343 – 1.4305. If sellers be stopped here, then buyers will have a chance to achieve a resistance at 1.4515.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the current local trend is a still bullish. There’s a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. The pair reached a support at 1.4371, which led to a local flat. It’s likely that the flat will be finally broken by bears, so a support at 1.4343-1.4305 is going to be the main target. At the same time, if a pullback from this area appears, then bulls might take a revenge and focus on a resistance at 1.4515.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8339

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears broken the "Window"
22 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’re a “High Wave” and a “Tweezers” at the last high. The last “Window” has been broken by the huge bearish candle. Therefore, the next “Window” is likely going to act as a support. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami”, which has been confirmed, so we can expect a further decline.

The price has reached the 89 Moving Average line, so it's possible to see any kind of bullish pattern and a local rise afterwards. After that, bears are likely going to taste the nearest “Window”.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8340

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for March 23
22 March 2016
By Kira Iukhtenko

Market sentiment turned negative after the Brussels events on Tuesday. EUR/USD dipped to 1.1185, but note that the pullbacks are bought. Euro zone’s economic calendar is rather light, so the market will be driven mostly by the US news in the coming days. From the technical viewpoint, I’d rather not be buying euro at the current levels. Major support is seen at 1.1200 and we need a daily close lower to change the view to bearish.

GBP/USD is developing a bearish move as well. Weak UK inflation figures on Tuesday strengthened the selling pressure on the pair. There are no important releases to watch tomorrow, while on Thursday we will be watching the retail sales figures. Break below 1.4250 (50% Fibo) opens the way to 1.4150 in the coming days.

Dips in AUD/USD are also liquidated quickly – the pair recovered back above 0.7600 on Tuesday. Nexttargetliesat 0.7670. Thepairisnotoverbought. Meanwhile, USD/JPY broke from the lower boundary of the consolidative range. We expect the bearish trend to be extended with the medium term target at 110.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8348

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "pennant" arrived
23 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has been declining since a “Double Top” arrived at the last high. The price faced a support at 1.1193, but bears is likely going to reach the next support level at 1.1159. If we see a pullback from here, then bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance area between the levels 1.1273 – 1.1305.

The market found a support at 1.1193, which led to the current correction. There’s a possible “Pennant”, so sellers are likely going to reach a support area between the 89 Moving Average line and the level 1.1159. If bears be stopped somewhere in here, then the price will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance at 1.1245 – 1.1273.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8352

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bearish "flag"
23 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There’s a confirmed “Double Top” pattern, which led to the current downward movement. It’s likely to see the market lower. If a pullback from the level 1.4117 appears, then bulls will probably take a revenge and try to reach a resistance area 1.4305 – 1.4343.

The price has been declining since a pullback from the support level 1.4196 arrived. There’s a possible “Flag” pattern, so bears are likely going to break its lower side. The main support line is 1.4117, so if sellers be stopped here, then buyers will have a chance to acheve a resistance at 1.4247 – 1.4286.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8353

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Window" on focus again
23 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’s a local bullish movement on the four-hour chart. Moreover, we’ve got a possible a “Three Methods” pattern in progress. When the current rise ends, the price is likely going to reach the nearest support line. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Hammer” at the last low, which has been confirmed. The pair went back to the previously broken “Window”. If any bearish pattern arrived, then a downward movement will probably resume.

We’ve got a “Shooting Star” at the local high, but then the nearest support line wasn't broken afterwards. There’s a “Three Methods” on the 144 Moving Average, so the upward movement is likely going to be continued until any bearish pattern forms.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8359

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: sell target – 1.8400
23 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD reached sell targets 1.8800 and 1.8660
-Next sell target – 1.8400

GBP/CAD recently broke sharply through the support levels 1.8800 and 1.8660 (low of the previous minor impulse wave (i)) - both of which were set as the sell targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of these support levels accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the sharp intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of December.

GBP/CAD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.8400 (target price for the termination of the active minor impulse sub-wave (iii)). Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 1.8660.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8361

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 24
23 March 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

Global risk sentiment, which worsened after bomb attacks in Brussels, managed to recover. US dollar index kept correcting up on more hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve officials and has space to get higher. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker said that the Fed should consider another interest rate hike as early as in April if US economic continues improving. FOMC member Bullard will speak once again at 12:15 GMT on Thursday. In addition, America will release core durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT (negative forecast) as well as the unemployment claims.

EUR/USD keeps declining and will likely test the next Fibo level at 1.1145. Next support is vat 1.1080 and 1.1050. Resistance is at 1.1220 ahead of 1.1270. The ECB Board Member Sabine Lautenschlaeger said that interest rates could also go lower, though the Bundesbank head Jens Weidmann claimed that the ECB went too far in March, so opinions differ. There will be no market moving data from the euro area on Thursday.

GBP/USD slid to 1.4150. Britain will release retail sales at 09:30 GMT. The forecast is negative (-0.7%). Brexit uncertainty remains on the table. In these conditions, the pound will be vulnerable to 1.4095, 1.4050 (March 16 low) and 1.4000.

USD/JPY has almost reached 113.00 (trend line resistance) and may get to 114.00 if it fixes above 113.00 as traders begin to price in potential increase of the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus in April. Support is at 112.30, 111.00 and 111.00.

AUD/USD is overbought and needs to correct down to 0.7530/00 and probably even lower before it resumes growth. There is a Bank holiday in Australia and New Zealand on Thursday.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8362

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears ready to tear "pennant" to pieces
24 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair has been declining since a “Double Top” pattern arrived at the last high. Despite of a support by the 34 Moving Average, it's likely that the price is going to reach an area near the trend line and the 55 & 89 Moving Averages. If a pullback appears somewhere in here, then bulls will probably return to the market and try to achieve a resistance at 1.1245 – 1.1273.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the market has faced a support at 1.1188, which led to the current correction. There's a possible “Pennant”, so the price is likely going to break this pattern and reach a support at 1.1124. If we see a pullback afterwards, then the pair will probably start rising towards a resistance at 1.1237.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8364

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: one more "flag"
24 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has been falling down since a “Double top” pattern formed. Moreover, bears broken a local trend line, but finally a support was found in the area 1.4117 – 1.4052. In the short term the price is likely going to decline towards a support at 1.4042 – 1.4018. If we see a pullback from here, then bulls will probably start an upward correction.

There’s an actual support at 1.4117 – 1.4052, which led to the current consolidation. It’s very likely that we see a “Flag” pattern in progress, so the market is probably going to reach a support at 1.4042. If bears be stopped here, then bull will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance at 1.4193.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8365

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "window" stopped the bearish rally
24 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’s a “Three Methods” pattern at the last low, but it’s very likely to see a support on the upper side of nearest “Window” and the 55 Moving Average line. As we can see on the Daily chart, the last candles are bearish. Previously, a «Harami» and a «Three Black Crows» have been formed at the local high. So, the downward movement is likely going to be deeper until any bullish pattern forms.

We’ve got a bearish movement on the one-hour chart. The price has been declining under the Moving Average lines and reached the nearest “Window”, which can act as a support and bring any kind of bullish pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve the Moving Average, but if we see a pullback from any of these lines, then bears will have a chance to taste the “Window” once again.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8369