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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for February 8-14

The euro took advantage of the broad weakness in the US dollar. EUR/USD made a breakthrough to the upside and crushed several important resistance levels on the way. One of the main reasons of such rapid increase in the euro is the covering of massive short positions. Economic data from the euro area remain weak. On Friday, though, US labor market data made traders buy American currency back.

Resistance is at 1.1270 (76.8% Fibo of the October-November decline), 1.1300 (23.6% Fibo of the 2014-2015 decline) and 1.1330. A break here can open the way to 1.1440/50. Support switched up to 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000.

Let’s look at the euro’s rate in general, not only against the US dollar. The single currency’s effective exchange rate against a trade-weighted basket of 38 other currencies is at maximum since the start of 2015 or, in other words, before Mario Draghi formally announced the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing program.

High euro is very unwelcome for the European economy and is an obstacle for the ECB to reach 2% inflation target. Yet, 2 speeches of the ECB president this week didn’t discourage the bulls. Draghi spoke of weaker inflation and increased risks hinting at the central bank’s policy easing in March. However, it seems that vague promises of March are not enough to weaken the euro.

Decline below 1.1040 will return strength to the bears, but 1.0900 should limit the euro on the downside.

Next week the most important piece of data will be released on Friday: euro area’s and German Q4 GDP. The region’s finance ministers will meet on Thursday and Friday. The ECB officials may try verbal interventions to limit the euro on the upside.


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7804
 
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for February 8-14

USD/JPY erased gains made after the Bank of Japan’s meeting at the end of January and approached 116.00. Stronger yen was negative for Japanese stocks, which lost about 6% during a week. On Friday US dollar got support of the American labor market data: the unemployment rate declined, while average earnings growth accelerated. Yet, we think that it will now be harder for the pair to regain the upside: the market fears that the BOJ actions to encourage inflation and weaken the yen won’t work.

Note Chinese markets will be closed next week because of the lunar New Year holidays. The market’s risk sentiment can improve, as the People’s Bank of China will probably try to keep the yuan stable. Also watch news out of the US, primarily speeches of the Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen on Wednesday and Thursday.

Support is at 116.00 (psychological level), 115.50 (bottom of 2015 trading range), 114.80 (100-week MA) and 114.00 (bottom of the weekly Cloud). Resistance is at 118.80 and 120.00. Japanese economic calendar once again is light with only current account on Monday and 30-y bond auction on Tuesday.


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7803
 
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: buy target - 118.00
8 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 116.50
-Next buy target - 118.00

USD/JPY recently reversed up from the pivotal support level 116.50 (which reversed previous waves (A) and 1 in October and January, as you can see from the daily USD/JPY chart below). When this support level reversed the price in the middle of January the pair formed the strong double Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern - Bullish Engulfing, the first candle of which is the daily Hammer.

The last time the price reversed up from the support level 116.50 the pair formed the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Long-legged Doji. Given the strength of the support level 116.50 - USD/JPY is likely to rise to the next buy target at the resistance level 118.00.

USDJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-08%201058%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7820
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: sell target - 2.0200
8 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD falling inside impulse wave 3
-Next sell target - 2.0200

GBP/AUD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 2.0530 (which has been reversing the price from the end of January, as you can see below) and the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the start of January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November.

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.0200 (which reversed the price last week).

GBPAUD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-08%201054%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7819
 
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Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for February 10

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market is risk averse. Asian stocks fell with Japanese Nikkei 225 made the biggest decline since May 2013. As markets in China, Hong Kong, Singapore and South Korea stay closed for Lunar New Year holidays, liquidity contracted and price moves have become more volatile.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) went out with a report, according to which the possibility of an emergency meeting between OPEC and non-OPEC countries is very low. The IEA expects oil stocks to keep increasing in 2016 and prices to remain under pressure – obviously, bad news for oil. Brent tested levels below $33 a barrel. US crude oil inventories are due at 15:30 GMT on Wednesday.

The worries of the market are deeper than falling commodities and the negative impact on emerging nations. Investors fear that loose monetary policy of central banks won’t help to encourage growth in advanced economies. EUR, JPY and CHF are bought as safe haven currencies. Still, the ECB and the Bank of Japan certainly don’t welcome such dynamics, and there’s a high risk of verbal interventions from their authorities.

The highlight of the day will be the Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen testimony to the Congress at 15:00 GMT. The main question that interests the market is how many rate hike the Fed will do this year. The most likely scenario is that Yellen will sound the same as her deputy Stanley Fisher, who spoke a week ago. Fisher acnowledged growing global volatility and was cautious about the rate hikes. Note that traders are quite ready for such an announcement – it is already priced in – so the main risk for the market is that Yellen is more positive.

USD/JPY tested 114.20 approaching the key support area of 114.00/113.95 (bottom of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, 23.6% of 2011-2015 advance). Dovish Yellen will increase pressure on support making dollar continue sliding against the yen. Note that the move below 113.95 will confirm a reversal. There won’t be much of support for a long time. If Yellen is more optimistic than expected, USD/JPY will try to re-settle above 116.00. EUR/USD may test resistance at 1.1300, 1.1340 and 1.1440. Support is at 1.1150. British pound doesn’t have much strength in the current environment and should attract sellers on attempts to recover. The UK will release manufacturing production at 09:30 GMT. Resistance is at 1.4500/25 and 1.4660, while support is at 1.4340 ahead of 1.4228. Technical picture for AUD/USD became more bearish. There’s still support at 0.7000 before 0.6935. The bulls may try to slow and reverse the decline on the run up and after Yellen’s comments.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7840
 
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
10 February 2016

10-2-2016-EUR-H4.png


The EUR/USD has found a resistance at the levels 1.1305 and 1.1352. Afterwards, the price entered into a phase of consolidation, which can turn out to a reversal "V" top pattern. In the short-term we can expect a downward movement to the upper side of the support area (1.1145 - 1.1032), but then the market may to continue growing towards a resistance area between the levels 1.1394 - 1.1439.

10-2-2016-EUR-H1.png


The price has formed a local "V" top pattern. The pair has been consolidating between a resistance at 1.1352 and a support at 1.1245. With this, it’s very likely that we will see the downward movement towards a support area between the levels 1.1214 - 1.1162. If the price starts rising from this levels, the market can continue growing towards a range between the support levels 1.1377 - 1.1394.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7845
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: buy target - 2.0200
10 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD reached buy target 2.0100
-Next buy target - 2.0200

GBP/CAD recently rose sharply reaching the resistance level 2.0100, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price previously reversed up sharply from the major support level 1.9900 – forming two daily Japanese candlestick reversal patterns Hammer near this support level, as you can see from the daily GBP/CAD chart below. The previous upward reversal from 1.9900 stopped the previous minor correction 2 – starting the active impulse wave 3.

Given the strength of the support level 1.9900 - GBP/CAD can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 2.0200. Long entries are best opened at 1.9900 with the buy stop-loss placed below 1.9850.

GBPCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-10%201037%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7852
 
Forex Analytics

USD/CHF: sell target - 0.9700
10 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reached sell target 0.9900
-Next sell target - 0.9700

USD/CHF recently fell sharply, breaking through the three consecutive support levels – 1.0000, 0.9900 (this support level was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 0.9800 (low of the previous intermediate (A)-wave). Each of these support breaks intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair - accelerating the active intermediate (C)-wave, which belongs to the primary ABC correction ② from the end of November.

USD/CHF might correct up to the recently broken price level 0.9800 (serving as resistance now after it was broken) – from where this currency pair can be sold with the sell target set at the support level 0.9700.

USDCHF%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-10%201030%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7851
 
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: candlestick analysis
10 February 2016
Galina Svetlova

1002eurusdH4.png


The price has formed a “High Wave” pattern near the last maximum. It's likely that the correction will go further to the level of previously formed a “Tweezers” pattern. There's a possibility to form a "Bearish Harami" pattern on the daily chart.

1002eurusdH1.png


The current correction has been started after a “Shooting Star” pattern appeared at the last maximum. In the short term the downward movement can continue falling towards the last "Window" support level. However, if the price reaches a support on the Moving Average line and the “Tweezers” pattern level, it’s very likely that the main trend will go on.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7853
 
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: candlestick analysis
10 February 2016
Galina Svetlova

1002usdjpyH4.png


The bullish rally become slower after a “Hummer” and a “Inverted Hummer” have been formed at the last minimum. At the same time, there’s a bearish “Three Methods” pattern as well, so it’s likely that we’ll see just a small correction and more selling pressure afterwards. The bullish "Hammer" has been formed on the daily chart.

1002usdjpyH1.png


There’s a correction in progress near the last minimums and we’ve got three bullish patterns: a “Hummer’, a “Morning Doji Star” and a “Tweezers’. The price movement has found a resistance at the 2014 minimum. There's still time for the correction, but it’s very likely that the main trend is going to continue soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7854
 
Forex Analytics

CAD/JPY: sell targets - 79.00 and 78.00
11 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-CAD/JPY broke support level 80.00
-Next sell targets - 79.00 and 78.00

CAD/JPY continues to fall inside the intermediate impulse wave (5) of the primary downward impulse wave ③ from last June. The active impulse wave (5) started earlier this month - when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 87.30, upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from last year.

Having just broken below the support level 80.00 - CAD/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell targets at the support level 79.00 (low of the earlier impulse wave (3), which reversed the pair with the daily Hammer in January) and 78.00.

CADJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-11%201033%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7865
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: sell targets - 160.00 and 157.50
11 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY broke support level 165.00
-Next sell targets - 160.00 and 157.50

GBP/JPY continues to fall after the recent sharp breakout of the support level 165.00, which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in the middle of January. The breakout of this support level greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 from the start of February (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November).

GBP/JPY is likely to fall in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 160.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 157.50. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 165.00.

GBPJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-11%201031%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7864
 
Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for Februaty 15-21

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index fell to the lowest levels since October. The Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen said that she still expected the central bank to increase interest rates gradually this year. At the same time, she underlined that the central bank won’t necessarily do that taking into account volatility in global stock markets. In addition, Yellen noted that the US central bank was studying the feasibility of pushing short-term interest rates into negative territory in case the economy needs additional boost.

Although Yellen’s comments weren’t themselves that bearish, the market’s reaction was very sharp. Investors have dramatically pushed back the expectations of the Fed’s rate hikes this year. According to the CME, Fed fund futures don’t price in rate hikes this year anymore.

In order to find firmer support and recover the dollar needs better data from the US. On Monday American banks will be closed in observance of Presidents’ Day. A lot of important statistical data will be come out on Wednesday: building permits, producer prices, housing starts, industrial production. In addition, the Fed will publish the minutes of its January meeting. Also pay attention to American inflation figures on Friday.

Resistance for USD index is at 97.20, 98.50 and 99.00, while support is in the 94.00 area.

USD%20index.png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7885
 
Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for February 15-21

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY broke to the downside crushing support at 116.00, 115.00 and 114.00. Japanese yen strengthened as a safe haven amid falling stock markets, concerns about global growth and central banks’ ability to revive the world economy.

Look at the chart. The pair fell to the lowest levels since October 2014. Weekly close below 114.00 will be a very bearish development. Technical picture looks like a reversal.

Japanese monetary authorities have already come up with verbal reaction to yen’s appreciation. Finance Minister Taro Aso said that the nation “will act appropriately if that becomes necessary.” The lower USD/JPY goes, the higher is the risk that the Bank of Japan will directly intervene to the market. The intervention risks exists below 115.00. Note though, that intervention will get more likely in case of a really volatile move in USD/JPY, that means if the pair moves more than 300 pips a day. Note that Group of 20 finance leaders will meet at the end of February. This reduces the odds of intervention. If intervention happens, USD/JPY will gain 2-4 big figures, though the effect should be only temporary. Japanese yen is still undervalued and can gain more. The pair is oversold, and may correct higher, but will meet resistance at 115.00 and 116.00.

The level of 110.00 is regarded as psychologically important on the downside – here players will expect more from Japanese central bank. Below it there won’t be much of support until 106.50 (38.2% Fibo of the 2012-2015 advance).

Japan will release Q4 GDP data early on Monday. Moreover, keep an eye on American data, especially on Wednesday.

USDJPYWeekly.png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7886
 
Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for February 15-21

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD rose to 3-month high. The main bullish driver of the single currency was the covering of trades funded in the euro. Data released in the euro area have been relatively weak. The region’s economy rose by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2015, while industrial production fell by 1% in December.

The possibility that the ECB will significantly ease policy in March is high, though it is not clear yet whether these measures will work. The ECB President Mario Draghi will speak on Monday. Given the recent appreciation of the single currency, Draghi will probably do his best to talk the euro down.

As for other events in European economic calendar, watch the release of German and the euro zone’s economic sentiment index on Tuesday. In addition, German Constitutional Court will debate ECB’s OMT ruling.

Technically EUR/USD ran into some resistance on approach to 1.1400. Support is at 1.1150 and 1.1050. As for resistance, above 1.1370 it lies at 1.1450 and 1.1500.

EURUSDDaily.png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7883
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for February 15-21

By Elizabeth Belugina

British pound traded sideways versus its American counterpart during the past week. Data from the UK showed that trade deficit narrowed a bit, but manufacturing production kept declining.

Next week there will be more news form Britain. Inflation figures will come out on Tuesday. A block of labor market statistics is due on Wednesday and the UK will release retail sales data on Friday.

Despite great volatility in global markets, GBP/USD behaved stable. High at 1.4660 continued limiting the upside. Trading between this level and 1.4350 may continue for another week.

Note that global turbulence and low oil prices aren’t particularly good for British pound, so the main scenario is that GBP/USD will ultimately slide towards 1.4200. In case of a break to the upside, next resistance will be at 1.4800.

GBPUSDDaily.png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7884
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: sell target - 160.00
17 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 160.00

GBP/JPY recently reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 165.00 (former strong support from January, which stopped the previous minor impulse wave 1, acting as resistance now after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave (i)) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous impulse wave 1. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse 3 - which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from last November.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the round support level 160.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i)).

GBPJPY%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-17%201004%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7936
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: sell target - 1.9720
17 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD broke pivotal support level 1.9900
-Next sell target - 1.9720

GBP/CAD continues to fall inside the minor (c)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 2 from last December. The active (c)-wave earlier broke the strong pivotal support level 1.9900 (which has been steadily reversing this currency pair from the start of December, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below). The breakout of the support level 1.9900 is likely to strengthen the bearish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

The pair is likely to fall further in the active impulse (c)-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 1.9720 (low of the previous intermediate correction (2) from October and the forecast price for the termination for the active minor ABC correction 2).

GBPCAD%20-%20Primary%20Analysis%20-%20Feb-17%201000%20AM%20(1%20day).png


More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7935
 
Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: technical analysis
18 February 2016
Sergey Logachev

18-2-2016-GBP-H4.png


The GBP/USD pair has broken the upward trend. The price started a flat correction from the support line 1.4229. It's likely that the upward movement will go higher to a resistance area between the levels 1.4346 - 1.4408. At the same time, there’s a possibility that bears are going to come back to the market afterwards.

18-2-2016-GBP-H1.png


We’ve got the differently directed movement in a range between a resistance at 1.4346 and a support at 1.4229. It’s likely to see the market falling down towards a support area between the levels 1.4275 - 1.4229 in the short term. If the price starts rising from these levels, then it's likely that the pair will test a resistance area between the levels 1.4346 - 1.4378.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7947
 
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