Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: technical analysis
18 February 2016
Sergey Logachev

The main trend on the EUR/USD pair is a still bullish. There’s the price movement in a range between the 55 Simple Moving Average and the resistance level 1.1214. In the short term we can expect a rise to a resistance area between the levels 1.1214 - 1.1245, but then the market may start a downward correction towards a support area between the levels 1.1145 - 1.1032.

The market has been slightly declining in a range since last Tuesday. It's likely that the pair will go even lower to a support area between the levels 1.1145 - 1.1032. Nevertheless, the price might go to a new upward movement afterwards to a resistance at the level 1.1194.

https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7946

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/JPY: sell targets - 80.00 and 78.00
18 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell targets - 80.00 and 78.00

AUD/JPY recently reversed down twice from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 82.00 and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from the end of January. The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the impulse 3 of the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from last September.

AUD/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the round support level 80.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next support level 78.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7952

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/JPY: sell target - 126.00
18 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/JPY reversed from resistance level 128.00
-Next sell target - 126.00

EUR/JPY recently reversed down sharply from the resistance level 128.00 (former support level and the sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair, acting as resistance now – after it was broken by the previous sharp minor impulse wave (i)). The downward reversal from this resistance level completed the latest minor correction (ii) – starting the active impulse wave (iii), which belongs to the longer-term downward impulse waves 3 and (3), as can be seen below.

EUR/JPY is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 126.00 (which stopped the previous impulse wave (i) earlier this month).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7953

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for February 19

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar turned to be rather strong on Thursday despite all the Fed’s attempts to limit the upside.The greenback was supported by the labor market figures: number of unemployment claims came out below the forecast.On Friday watch the US CPI – according to the official forecast, the base index accelerated to 0.2%. The US currency has potential for more upside.

EUR/USD tests the local support at 1.1100, but we need a fix below this mark to find a reason to sell. Next strong support is seen at 1.1040 (55-week MA). Meanwhile, GBP/USD is strengthening ahead of the EU meeting results on Brussels. Will they reach an agreement? Our forecast is “yes”, but it will take a couple of months to formulate the decision. The nervousness will last and keep GBP under selling pressure. We expect the 1.3500 mark to be hit in the coming months. However, in a short term the pair could hit 1.4500 on the upbeat expectations.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7957

 

[riki143]

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https://idnfbs.com/news/kompaniya-fbs-poluchila-nagradu-luchshaya-sohrannost-sredstv-klientov-v-azii

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for February 22-28

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD eased down from the 1.1375 area. The minutes of the European Central Bank’s January meeting showed that some policymakers believe that the ECB should act rather sooner than later because of the new risks to economic growth and inflation. The regulator’s president Mario Draghi also underlined the central bank’s readiness to ease policy in March. Yet, the market players don’t seem very convinced that the ECB’s efforts will work, and we see that the euro’s decline is gradual, not abrupt.

Resistance at 1.1250 will likely guard the upside. Important support is in the 1.1050/40 area (200-day MA, 55-week MA). If this support is broken, the single currency will fall to 1.0960/00 and even 1.0800.

On Monday the euro area will release flash manufacturing and services indexes. On Tuesday watch German Ifo business climate. The region’s final inflation figures will come out on Thursday, while German preliminary CPI is due on Friday.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7969

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for February 22-28

By Elizabeth Belugina

The recovery of USD/JPY stalled ahead of the psychological level of 115.00. The level of 110.00 is an important mark. Here traders will expect more action from the Bank of Japan.

Dovish FOMC meeting minutes confirmed that the market has lost faith that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates anytime soon. The pair doesn’t have much strength. It seems that further steps from the Bank of Japan are needed to bring USD/JPY above 115.00 and towards 120.00.

The pressure on Japanese central bank to ease policy further increased after data showed that the nation’s economy fell more than expected in Q4: GDP contracted by 1.4% on the annualized basis vs. 0.8% expected. These figures provoke criticism of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics”. Stronger yen is one of the reasons why Japanese economy isn’t feeling particularly good. Another reason is China’s economic slowdown.

Next week Japan will release flash manufacturing PMI on Monday and inflation figures on Friday.

The market remains concerned about the global economic slowdown. As a result, demand for the yen as a safe haven will continue. We don’t expect any action from the Bank of Japan in the coming days. With G20 meeting, which starts next Friday the situation, may be more stable. It looks like we are seeing a new range of 115.00/110.00 for USD/JPY.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7970

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for February 22-28

Kira Iukhtenko

UK currency attempted to recover some ground over the past week, but failed to overcome the 1.4400 mark. UK retail sales surprised the market to the upside, but the fears of Brexit are dominating the scene. Cable fell below 1.4300 on the increased volatility.

If the compromise decision will be found, GBP/USD will get the chance to grow towards the 1.4500 mark. However, we recommend selling the pair from these levels. If there is no decision on the table, the British currency will extend the decline on the new week. Break below the 1.4230 mark will open the way for a decline to 1.4080.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. The only event to watch is the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP on Thursday. According to the preliminary estimates, the economy rose by 0.5% during that period.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7972

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: sell target - 155.00
23 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY reached sell target 160.00
-Next sell target - 155.00

GBP/JPY continues to fall after the recent breakout of the round support level 160.00 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (i) and which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the support level 160.00 is expected to further accelerate the active impulse wave (iii) which belongs to impulse 3 of the intermediate (C)-wave from last November.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves (iii), 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 155.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR above the recently broken price level 160.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8002

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: sell target - 1.9200
23 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD falling inside primary impulse wave ③
-Next sell target - 1.9200

GBP/CAD recently fell sharply – following the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.9720 (previous sell target set for this currency pair) 1.9900. This is the former strong support zone which has been reversing the price from last October, as can be seen from the daily GBP/CAD chart below. The latest downward reversal from this resistance zone accelerated the active primary impulse wave ③.

With the daily Momentum recently reaching new yearly lows - GBP/CAD can be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.9200 (target price for the completion of impulse ③).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8003

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/JPY: sell targets - 122.00 and 121.00
24 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/JPY reached sell target 126.00
-Next sell targets - 122.00 and 121.00

EUR/JPY has been under strong bearish pressure lately – following the earlier breakout of the support zone lying between the support level 126.00 (previous sell target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair) and the lower support trendline of the wide daily down channel from last June, as can be seen below. The breakout of this support zone greatly accelerated the active impulse waves 5 and (3).

EUR/JPY is set to fall further to the next sell target at the support levels 122.00 and 121.00 (target price calculated for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8023

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: sell target - 1.3800
24 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/USD reached sell target 1.4100
-Next sell target - 1.3800

GBP/USD recently fell sharply – after the earlier breakout of the support level 1.4100 (low of the previous minor impulse wave from January), which was set as the sell target for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.4100 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (3) from the middle of October.

Considering the accelerating downward Momentum - GBP/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.3800 (target price for the termination of the active intermediate impulse wave (3)). Strong resistance now stands at 1.4100.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8022

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis
24 February 2016

Daily. The pair keeps forming the final wave [E] of the sloping triangle. Let’s review the internal structure of this wave at Н4.

H4. The pair is likely forming a usual zigzag (Y). Within this zigzag the pair finished the wave A and we are now witnessing the development of the corrective wave B. When the sideways wave is completed, the market’s growth will resume.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8016

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for February 25


Oil went under renewed selling pressure as Saudi Arabia ruled out any production cuts. US dollar index is recovering. Watch American durable goods and unemployment claims figures on Thursday. The forecast is rather good.

GBP/USD breached 1.4000 to the downside. The pound keeps suffering because of Brexit fears. The falling oil prices add to the bearish pressure on the British currency. The UK will publish second release of GDP for Q4. No revisions to 0.5% economic growth are expected. Fundamentals don’t offer support for sterling. The currency is oversold in the short term and there’s bullish divergence on the daily chart, but this may offer only some very short-term relief. Resistance is at 1.4000 (psychological level, look for new shorts on the pullback up here) and 1.4080 (January 21 low). On the downside below 1.3880 focus on 1.3680/55 (2001 low, March 2009 low).

EUR/USD fell to support at 1.0960/40 (support line, 50% Fibo of advance since December), where it should find some support. The single currency is also feeling negative effects of concerns that Britain will leave the EU. The loss of this support will bring the pair down to 1.0830/00. Strong resistance is at 1.1050 (200-day MA). As for USD/JPY, decline below 112.00 opens the way down towards 111.00 and 110.50.

The advance of AUD/USD stalled ahead of 200-day MA. Support is at 0.7150 (100-day MA) and 0.7100. Resistance is at 0.7240 and 0.7275. Australia will release extremely important private capital expenditure figures at 00:30 GMT. The data includes the actual investments made by Australian companies in Q4 as well as investment plans for 2016-17.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8026

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY: buy targets - 76.80 and 78.00
26 February 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY reversed from strong support zone
-Next buy targets - 76.80 and 78.00

NZD/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the strong support zone lying between the support levels 74.40 and 73.20. This support zone earlier reversed the previous waves ①, (1) and 1, as can be seen from the daily NZD/JPY chart below. The upward reversal form this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star – the middle candle of which is also the Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern – Hammer.

Given the strength of the aforementioned support zone - NZD/JPY is likely to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 76.80 and 78.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8049

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

Last week the US Dollar extended the upside for a second week in a row, supported by the strong USD figures. According to the second estimate, the US economy rose by 1% in Q4. What’s more, personal spending and durable goods orders have also shown significant improvement.

US dollar index recovered above 98 pips and remains in a bullish channel. Market gained 61.8% Fibonacci from the early 2016 drop in the recent two weeks. Are the bulls retaking control over the market?

It’s all not so easy. We have to watch the new range of the economic data on the new week. Strong figures could raise expectations for a Fed’s rate hike in March and boost the US currency. Weak data will disappoint and cap the USD upside.

Watch the US manufacturing PMI on Tuesday (forecast – upbeat) and the non-manufacturing PMI on Thursday (forecast – downbeat). On Friday, the markets will focus on the labor market figures. NFP is expected to come at 195K in February (up from the January reading). However, average hourly earnings figure could become a negative factor for the greenback – growth is expected to have slowed to 0.2%.

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8079

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for Feb 29 - Mar 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

British pound fell dramatically last week, breaking below the 1.3900 mark (lowest since 2010). The cable is losing ground amid increased uncertainty about the June referendum outcome. According to the most recent polls, 38% of respondents support the the Brexit, while 37% prefer to stay in the European Union.

Bearish momentum in GBP/USD remains strong. There are no fundamental reasons for the market to reverse until we reach 1.3500 (2009 low). The pair is clearly oversold, but the market is now moved more by the market sentiment, then by the technical factors. Local resistance is seen at 1.4080.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. We’ll watch a block of PMI indices from Tuesday to Thursday. According to the official forecasts, manufacturing and services indices have weakened in February.

You should also remember about the US labor market figures on Friday. This is something that could trigger a bullish correction. Average hourly earnings are expected to have declined.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8078

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY for the second time managed to jump up from 111.00. The advance was triggered by the good US data on Friday – GDP growth for Q4 was revised up, and consumer sentiment was favorable. In Japan industrial production has gained pace, though retail sales once again disappointed.

Resistance in the 114.00/115.00 area is strong. Poor risk sentiment is the main reason behind demand for the yen as a safe haven. The outcome of G20 meeting, which may have changed the situation, didn’t impress investors much. On the one hand the policymakers gave a rather good estimate of global economy and finance. On the other hand, there are serious doubts that coordinated action will be taken if necessary. Fiscal stimulus is not planned, so all care on the well-being of the economies will lie on the central banks, in this case on the Bank of Japan. Taking into account the fact that Japanese central bank has few instruments left, the yen might stick to the current levels.

As a result, in order to change this negative risk averse picture, the bulls require good data from America and China. This week the US will release PMI and NFP. Also don’t miss Chinese statistics on Tuesday and Thursday. Japanese economic calendar once again doesn’t represent much interest.

In the coming days we expect the 114.50/111.00 range to persist.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8077

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for Feb. 29 - Mar. 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD made a breakthrough below 1.0960 on Friday (trend line support from December and 50% Fibo). German retail sales increased, but import prices fell – a sign of deflation pressure. Flash inflation figures for February also came out much weaker than expected. Core inflation for February was only 0.7% compared with 1% in January. It means that investors will expect more action from the European Central Bank – weak price growth allows the regulator to ease policy.

The single currency will have to feel the pressure ahead of the ECB upcoming meeting next Thursday, March 10. Concerns about potential Brexit (Britain leaving the European Union) also affect the euro. This week the euro area’s economic calendar will be light. No changes in the weak region’s final PMIs due on Tuesday are expected. Pay more attention to the US statistics, especially PMIs on Tuesday and Thursday and NFP on Friday.

The pair closed the week below 55-week MA (1.1025). Technical picture has turned mildly bearish. The euro will likely slide to 1.0830 (61.8% Fibo) /1.0800. If the negative pressure strengthens, the next level to watch will be 1.0710. Resistance is at 1.1000 and 1.1050. The bulls have to push the price above the latter in order to return the lost powers.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8076

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 1

The meeting of G20 finance ministers brought no big results disappointing the market. The People’s Bank of China cut the reserve requirement ratio in order to calm down the markets and improve sentiment. US data releases were negative on Monday: pending home sales contracted by 2.5% in January, and Chicago PMI came at 47.5 vs. the forecast of 51.2. On Tuesday watch Chinese official and Caixin Manufacturing PMIs: these releases will have big impact on the market’s mood.

USD/JPY recoiled down from 114.00. Traders bought Japanese currency as a refuge on the back of the falling Asian shares. Support is at 112.00. The pair is expected to maintain sideways trading in the 114.40/111.00 area.

AUD/USD has support at 0.7110/00. The currency failed to overcome 200-day MA (0.7265). The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its interest rate decision at 03:30 GMT. The RBA is expected to keep rates unchanged. If 0.7100 holds, Aussie will be able to recover to 0.7200 and 0.7240. Below 0.7100 AUD/USD will fall to 0.7070 and 0.7015.

EUR/USD opened with a gap down and then failed to return above the former support at 1.0960. The region’s worse-than-expected inflation data sent the single currency down to 1.0860. On Tuesday the euro area will release final manufacturing PMIs for February. No changes of the weaker data are expected. The focus is on 1.0830/00. After that the next support will be at 1.0710.

GBP/USD remained under pressure after it closed below 1.3900 on Friday. The pound was under pressure as polls showed that the “out” vote is becoming grows in popularity. At the same time, GBP/USD is very oversold, but will find resistance at 1.4000 and 1.4080. Support is at 1.3800. British pound looks more vulnerable against Japanese yen. Britain will release manufacturing PMI at 09:30 GMT.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8082