Forex Analysis

[JamesThatcher]

Hungary HUF Interest Rate November 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


Historic deviations and their outcome

July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

Check out the price action here:

HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0

HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

See the price action here

HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0

HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement 2.1



Today's trade plan

Today's official forecast is 2.1% which is a hike of 0.3%

There are varying predictions

Low is 1.95% to High is 2.7%
The Average is 2.18%

I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.0% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.5% or more.





Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

United States Crude Oil Inventories November 17 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories 1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1500



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1200 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = +700
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -750 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = -2800


Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

Turkey Turkish Rate Decision November 18 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 15.00



Today's trade plan

With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan, sending mixed messages about the Central bank's independence demonstrates the questionable behaviour of Turkeys leader. Normally leaders stay out of monetary policy.



We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 16.0%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.



If it remains at 16%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 14%, I'll take a sell.

If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.



Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late November 18 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x

Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 3.75



Today's trade plan

We have varying forecasts today as follows: -

High = 3.75
Low = 3.5
Prev = 3.5
Avg = 3.63

Therefore I will use a forecast of 3.75% therefore we will need to see a hike to the rates to 4.00% to take a trade.


Tradable pairs

USDZAR


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

The Week Ahead 22nd November 2021

In the Week ahead, I will be closely watching the following releases.



24th November 2021 1:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate



See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...OWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u24th



November 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories



See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw



25th November 2021 08:30 GMT Swedish Intrest rate



See the report history here: - https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9U0U7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

 

[JamesThatcher]

New Zealand Official Cash Rate November 24 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.



A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 0.75



Today's trade plan

Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 0.75%. There are varying predictions; however, the average is 0.77%.

No economist predict no change; therefore, I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.00% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.50 %




If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50%. We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.



If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.







If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.50% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.

If we see a change to the interest rates to 1.00% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.


Tradable pairs

AUDNZD
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDCHF
NZDJPY
NZDUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

United States Crude Oil Inventories November 24 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0
DOE Gasoline Inventories 0



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1800 (Bloomberg)
2) API Actual Crude = +2300
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -400 (Bloomberg)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +600


Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

Sweden SWE Intrest rate November 25 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Sveriges Riksbank Executive Board's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the SEK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

December 19 2019 Spike but retrace due to not being a total surprise on this occasion.

Check out the price action here:

SE Interest Rate Decision 2019-12-19 08:30:00.0

SE Interest Rate Decision 2019-12-19 08:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

December 20 2018 Great move on SEK pairs, as we would like to see today.

Check out the price action here:

SE Interest Rate Decision 2018-12-20 08:30:00.0

SE Interest Rate Decision 2018-12-20 08:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 0.00



Today's trade plan

No expected change today so if we did see a change of +/- 0.25% basis points to the Interest Rate then I would take a trade accordingly. I would expect to see a prolonged move which should last some time.


Tradable pairs

EURSEK
USDSEK


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

The Week Ahead 29 November 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

1st December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

3rd December 2021 13:30 GMT Us Non-farm Payrolls

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

 

[JamesThatcher]

United States Crude Oil Inventories December 1 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +750
DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1450 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = -700
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -0332 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +2200


Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

The Week Ahead 06 December 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

07th December 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

08th December 2021 12:00 GMT Polish Interest Rate Decision

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9UEw7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

08th December 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

08th December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

10th December 2021 13:30 GMT US Consumer Prices Index

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ

 

[Kazumu Fukunaga]

Do not trade out of assumption. Learn how to trade effectively. Don't be hurry. It needs time to be profitable. Don't chase pips. Focus on developing skills and abilities, pips will come automatically. Do not treat forex like gambling.

 

[JamesThatcher]

Poland Interest Rate Decision December 8 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The National Bank of Poland (NBP) Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the PLN, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the PLN.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a 0.25% hike above the forecasted increase of 0.25%. Therefore a 0.50% basis point increase to the rate. We saw a 264 pip move in the first minute.

Check out the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...S0xMS0wMyUyMDE0OjUwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJQTE47cj1NMQ



I will use forecasts of:

PL Rates Statement 1.75



Today's trade plan

Today I'll be looking for a -/+ 0.50% deviation from the forecast of a 1.75% interest rate increase to trade in the relevant direction.

So if we get an actual of 2.25% I'll take a buy or 1.25% to take a sell.


Tradable pairs



Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

Canada Overnight Rate December 8 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.


Historic deviations and their outcome

March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ




I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 0.25



Today's trade plan

All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.


Tradable pairs

AUDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
NZDCAD
USDCAD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

United States Crude Oil Inventories December 8 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.


Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

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October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

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October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.


Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

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I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -2000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +3000



Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1521 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = -3100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2000 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700


Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

United States Core CPI mm December 10 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

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July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

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June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

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I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.9
CPI (M/M) 0.7
CPI (Y/Y) 6.8



Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD or EURUSD

I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y


If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%


Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

The Week Ahead 13th December 2021

In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

14th December 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

15th December 2021 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOFlvWSUyOQ

15th December 2021 13:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI m/m
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ

15th December 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

15th December 2021 19:00 GMT US Federal Funds Rate
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

16th December 2021 09:00 GMT Norwegian Rate Decision
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

16th December 2021 11:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ

16th December 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

16th December 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican interest Rate
See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

 

[JamesThatcher]

Hungary HUF Interest Rate December 14 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.


Historic deviations and their outcome

July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.
Check out the price action here:

HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0

HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

See the price action here

HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0

HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0

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I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement 2.5



Today's trade plan

Today I will use a forecast of 2.5% which is a hike of 0.4%

There are varying predictions
LOW - 2.3%
HIGH - 3.3%
EST - 2.5%
AVG - 2.59%

I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to take a sell if the actual is 2.3% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more.





Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

United Kingdom Core CPI y/y December 15 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.


Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting


Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-02-17 07:00:00.0

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-02-17 07:00:00.0

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January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.


Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-01-20 07:00:00.0

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-01-20 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.7
CPI (Y/Y) 4.8



Today's trade plan

If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.



Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPUSD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

 

[JamesThatcher]

Canada Core CPI m/m December 15 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.


Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.


Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-08-18 12:30:00.0

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-08-18 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-07-28 12:30:00.0

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-07-28 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-06-16 12:30:00.0

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-06-16 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 4.7



Today's trade plan

Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.




Tradable pairs

EURCAD


Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.