Forex Analysis

JamesThatcher · Oct 20, 2021

United States Crude Oil Inventories October 20 2021

Untitled design - 2021-10-20T141635.262.jpg

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-22 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-15 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > 0
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -3500

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +3300
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -950 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = -3500

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 21, 2021

Turkey Turkish Rate Decision October 21 2021

Untitled design - 2021-10-21T084805.531.jpg

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.

Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 17.00

Today's trade plan

With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan dismissing three of the monetary policymakers at Turkeys Central Bank, it is strongly believed this was a deliberate move to ensure another rate cut today to boost credits and exports. Although such interference is widely frowned upon, I'm interested in how much they will cut by how the market will react as the Lira is already at an all-time low.

We have varying estimates for a cut today between 17.0% and 17.5%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on 1.0 on either side of this.

If it remains at 18%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 16%, I'll take a sell.

If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances.

Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 22, 2021

Russia RU Central Bank Key Rate October 22 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of Russia's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the RUB, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 23 2021 A 0.25 change from the forecast caused 172 pips spike in the first minute. Nice.
Check out the price action here:

RU Interest Rate Decision 2021-04-23 10:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Central Bank Key Rate 7.0

Today's trade plan

Theres varying estimates on forcast but the mostly weighted to a change to tha rate today of 7.00% a hike from the previous 6.75%

I'll take a buy on a +0.5 deviation from forcast so if they hike more than expected I will buy the RUB (Selling the USDRUB)
I will take a sell on a -0.25 deviation from forcast so if they do not change the rate and it remains at 6.75% i will sell the RUB (Buying the USDRUB)

Tradable pairs

USDRUB

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 22, 2021

JamesThatcher said:
Turkey Turkish Rate Decision October 21 2021
View attachment 1566
What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.

Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 17.00

Today's trade plan

With some political interference from Turkeys President Erdogan dismissing three of the monetary policymakers at Turkeys Central Bank, it is strongly believed this was a deliberate move to ensure another rate cut today to boost credits and exports. Although such interference is widely frowned upon, I'm interested in how much they will cut by how the market will react as the Lira is already at an all-time low.

We have varying estimates for a cut today between 17.0% and 17.5%, but I'll take the lower end forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on 1.0 on either side of this.

If it remains at 18%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 16%, I'll take a sell.

If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances.

Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Another shock to the markets today was when the highly anticipated cut to the Turkish interest didn't happen; the markets quickly revalued the Turkish Lira's value. We saw a whopping 2000 pips in a few seconds: what a lovely move, a great trade.

See Chart here:

Galaxy Economic Calendar

calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com

See the video at :

JamesThatcher · Oct 25, 2021

The Week Ahead 25th October 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

27th October 2021 01:30 GMT Australian CPI

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4UW9RJTI5

27th October 2021 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate

See the report history here

Galaxy Economic Calendar

calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com

27th October 2021 15:3 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

JamesThatcher · Oct 27, 2021

Australia CPI q/q October 27 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the change in the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation. The impact on the currency may go both ways. A rise in CPI may lead to a rise in interest rates and a rise in local currency. On the other hand, during the recession, a rise in CPI may lead to a deepened recession and a fall in local currency.

The RBA has a dual mandate of reduced unemployment and achieving higher inflation, So we hope a surprise increase in the CPI figures could fuel a new debate for the RBA on when it would begin tapering/reduced quantitative easing.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 28 2021 Negative deviations on all lines saw a fantastic move; the Trimmed mean was heavily supported by the Headline QQ, pushing the AUD dollar to new lows!

Check out the price action here:

AU CPI (QoQ) 2021-04-28 01:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 27 2021 Headline Q/Q and Y/Y gave +0.2. Trimmed Mean was flat, though so not ideal. The move was respectable, lasting a good 30 seconds!

Check out the price action here:

AU CPI (QoQ) 2021-01-27 00:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 29 2020 Trimmed mean gave a -0.2 deviation but we saw a conflict with the Headline CPI QQ and YY with a positive +0.1 so it wasn't a trade for me. It's worth noting that Trimmed Mean won the day and blew away the conflict.

Check out the price action here:

AU CPI (QoQ) 2020-07-29 01:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Trimmed Mean (Q/Q) 0.5
CPI - Trimmed Mean (Y/Y) 1.8
CPI (Q/Q) 0.8
CPI (Y/Y) 3.1

Today's trade plan

If we see a deviation from the forecast of 0.3 on either line. Trimmed Mean CPI Q/Q or Trimmed Mean CPI Y/Y in either direction with no conflicts from the Headline CPI QQ and CPI YY. If they line up, we should see a prolonged move that we can bank some good pips from.

Tradable pairs

AUDCAD
AUDJPY
AUDNZD
AUDUSD
EURAUD
GBPAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 27, 2021

Canada Overnight Rate October 27 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 0.25

Today's trade plan

All economists stand unanimous that the rate will remain at 0.25% today therefore a change in either direction would make for an amazing move which I would expect to continue for some time.

Tradable pairs

EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 27, 2021

United States Crude Oil Inventories October 27 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-22 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-15 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories -2000

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +2000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +2318
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -2235 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +0530

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 1, 2021

The Week Ahead 1st November 2021

The Week Ahead 01222021 (Facebook Post) (2).png

In the Week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

02nd November 2021 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate

See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

03rd November 2021 14:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

04th November 2021 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate

See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

04th November 2021 13:30 GMT Czeck CNB Repo Rate

See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

04th November 2021 12:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change

See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

JamesThatcher · Nov 2, 2021

Australia Cash Rate November 2 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 3 2020 A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.

Check out the price action here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 0.10

Today's trade plan

I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.

Tradable pairs

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 2, 2021

New Zealand Unemployment Rate November 2 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Unemployment Rate released by Statistics New Zealand is the number of unemployed workers divided by the total civilian labour force. If the rate is up, it indicates a lack of expansion within the New Zealand labour market. As a result, a rise leads to weakening the New Zealand economy. A decrease in the figure is seen as positive (or bullish) for the NZD, while an increase is seen as negative (or bearish).

There are two main data lines from this report Unemployment Rate and Employment Change; both must deviate in the same direction to take a trade.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 4 2021 A -0.2 Deviation from Unemployment created a wonderful move unopposed by the Employment Change number. NZD pairs strengthened for a good 5 mins!

Check out the price action here:

NZ Employment Change (QoQ) 2021-05-04 22:45:00.0

NZ Employment Change (QoQ) 2021-05-04 22:45:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

February 2 2021 A positive deviation of -0.7 from the headline Unemployment Rate with a complementary positive deviation of +1.4k on the secondary line Employment Change gave a slow move. This is what I love to see.

I saw some movement before the delivery of the news, which is always a concern and often a sign that the news is out early, but I held my nerve this time, and it paid off.

Overall the price action was excellent.

Check out the price action here:

NZ Employment Change (QoQ) 2021-02-02 21:45:00.0

NZ Employment Change (QoQ) 2021-02-02 21:45:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change (Q/Q) 0.4
Unemployment Rate 3.9

Today's trade plan

If I get either a positive or negative deviation of 0.4 from the headline Unemployment Rate without a conflict from the secondary line of Employment Change, then I would expect a good initial move followed by some continuation after the initial spike.

Tradable pairs

EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Kazumu Fukunaga · Nov 3, 2021

Both fundamental and technical analysis are important for forex trading. Even if you do technical analysis trading, you also need little bit of fundamental analysis.

JamesThatcher · Nov 4, 2021

United Kingdom Official Bank Rate November 4 2021

Copy of Let's enjoy the (Facebook Post).png

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

See the report history here :

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 0.10

Today's trade plan

Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10% but many economists expect an increase to the rate to 0.25%. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.20% or more.

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 4, 2021

Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate November 4 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.

Check out the price action here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

CNB Repo Rate 2.25

Today's trade plan

Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 2.00%, a 0.50% hike to the current Interest Rate. There are some opinions out there that they might increase more to 2.25% so I will only take a buy if we see a hike to 2.50%

Tradable pairs

EURCZK
USDCZK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 5, 2021

United States Non-Farm Employment Change November 5 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Unemployment Rate 4.7
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 450

Today's trade plan

Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction.

I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 9, 2021

The Week Ahead 8th November 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

10th November 2021 15:30 GMT USA Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

11th November 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican interest Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Nov 10, 2021

United States Core CPI m/m November 10 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.40
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.30
CPI (M/M) 0.60
CPI (Y/Y) 5.90

Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 10, 2021

United States Crude Oil Inventories November 10 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations
Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories 0.00
DOE Gasoline Inventories -500

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1000
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -2000

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

DOE Trade Plan
Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1600 BB
2) API Actual Crude = -2500
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1250 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +600

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 11, 2021

Mexico MEX interest Rate November 11 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2021-06-24 18:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2020-11-12 19:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-15 18:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 5.0

Today's trade plan

Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.

Seventeen economists predict a hike to 5.00% but five predict a hike further to 5.25%

I'm using an average forecast of 5.05%

Therefore if we see a hike to 5.00% I will not take a trade.

If we see a hike of 5.05% or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 1000 pips.

If we see no hike and the rate remains at 4.75% I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips

Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.

Tradable pairs

USDMXN

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Nov 15, 2021

The Week Ahead 15th November 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking at the following releases.

16th November 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

17th November 2021 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5

17th November 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

18th November 2021 11:00 GMT Turkish Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ

18th November 2021 13:08* GMT South African Interest Rate
*(Approx, come out up to 20 minutes late)
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

Forex Analysis

The Week Ahead 25th October 2021​

From the News

The Week Ahead 25th October 2021