Forex Analysis

JamesThatcher · Dec 15, 2021

United States Crude Oil Inventories December 15 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

November 3 2021 Today we saw a small deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Only a small push in the direction of oil before it got blown off, just not strong enough deviations

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-11-03 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 27 2021 Just missed my trigger today, with gasoline coming out as forecast it was nice to see a reaction in the direction of Oil however it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-27 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

October 14 2021 A sizeable deviation today with a supporting sizeable deviation from gasoline too, lovely move unfortunately it just missed my trigger.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-10-14 15:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories -1250
DOE Gasoline Inventories +1500

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil with no conflicts from Gasoline

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -1700 (bb)
2) API Actual Crude = -0800
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +2500 (bb)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +400

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Dec 15, 2021

United States Federal Funds Rate December 15 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the USD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49RmVkJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

FOMC Interest Rate Decision - Max 0.25

Today's trade plan

If we see a change to the rate today of 0.25 in either direction I will take a trade and expect to see a sustained move for some time.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Dec 16, 2021

Norway NOK Rate Decision December 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 18 2020 7th May 2020

A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

March 19 2020 20th March 2020

A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

NO Interest Rate Decision 2020-03-20 07:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 19 2020 13th March 2020

An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy, is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic started to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020 which I'm glad to say is now behind us and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

NO Interest Rate Decision 2020-03-13 07:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 0.50

Today's trade plan

Today it is forecast for a hike to the rate to 0.50% Most economists predict this therefore I will take a buy if they hike more to 0.75% or a sell if they don't hike and leave the rates at 0.25%

This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50%

Tradable pairs

EURNOK
USDNOK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Dec 16, 2021

Turkey Turkish Rate Decision December 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 14.00

Today's trade plan

Turkey's Central bank recently defended the key level and intervened in the markets which make this slightly more difficult to call.

We have varying estimates for a cut today between 15.0% and 13.0%, but I'll take the median of the forecasts, and I'll take a buy or sell on a 1.0% deviation on either side of this.

If it remains at 15%, I'll take a buy
If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell.

If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.

Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Dec 16, 2021

United Kingdom Official Bank Rate December 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

Official Bank Bate 0.10%

Today's trade plan

Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10%, but many economists expected an increase to 0.25%. However Omicron covid variant has cast doubt on that. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.25% or more.

Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Dec 16, 2021

Mexico MEX interest Rate December 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2021-06-24 18:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2020-11-12 19:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-15 18:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 5.25

Today's trade plan

Today we have an expected hike to the rates however it's not a unanimous prediction which always makes interest rate decisions a lot more exciting.

I'm using an average forecast of 5.33%

Therefore if we see a hike to 5.25% I will not take a trade.

If we see a hike of 5.50 % or greater I will take a buy and expect 600 to 700 pips.

If we see no hike and the rate remains at 5.00 % I will take a sell and expect 900 - 1000 pips

Today’s liquidity conditions are likely to be sub-par due to the closure of US markets for Veterans Day, and bank holidays in other countries. Which you should be aware of.

Tradable pairs

USDMXN

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Dec 18, 2021

JamesThatcher said:
United Kingdom Official Bank Rate December 16 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

Official Bank Bate 0.10%

Today's trade plan

Today the official forecast is for the rate to remain at 0.10%, but many economists expected an increase to 0.25%. However Omicron covid variant has cast doubt on that. Therefore I will be looking to take a buy on an increase of 0.25% or more.

Tradable pairs
EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Today we had a first, a surprise hike to the Bank of England base rate. A hike was anticipated to help curb high inflation; however, with the emergence of the Omicron variant widely reported in the Uk media and government announcement of new restrictions, the markets expected this to be pushed back to the new year. However, it was almost a unanimous vote to act now. Great for us. I banked around 75 pips.

See Chart here:

Galaxy Economic Calendar

calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com

See the video at :

JamesThatcher · Jan 4, 2022

The Week Ahead 3rd January 2022

Happy New Year, Everyone.

I hope you all had a great festive season and all the best for 2022.

Traditionally my first trade of the year is NFP which lands this Friday. Therefore this week, i'll be looking closely at the following release.

7th January 2022 13:30 GMT Us Non-farm Payrolls

See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

JamesThatcher · Jan 7, 2022

United States Non-Farm Employment Change January 7 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.4
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 433
Unemployment Rate 4.1

Today's trade plan

Today I want to see a deviation of +/- 220k to take a trade in the relative direction.

I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Jan 10, 2022

The Week Ahead 10th January 2022

This week, I'll be looking closely at the following release.

12th January 2022 13:30 GMT US CPI

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5

JamesThatcher · Jan 17, 2022

This week, i'll be looking closely at the following release.

19th January 2022 07:00 am United Kingdom Core CPI

See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOFlvWSUyOQ

20th January 2022 09:00 am Norwegian Interest Rate Decision

See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRG

JamesThatcher · Jan 19, 2022

United Kingdom Core CPI y/y January 19 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-02-17 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-01-20 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.9
CPI (M/M) 0.3
CPI (Y/Y) 5.2

Today's trade plan

If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either

Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
CPI Y/Y line.

With no conflicts on any other line.

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Jan 20, 2022

Norway NOK Rate Decision January 20 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Norges Bank decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NOK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 18 2020 7th May 2020

A further cut of 0.25% leaving interest rates at an unprecedented 0.00%

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9Tk87bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

March 19 2020 20th March 2020

A further emergency cut of 0.75% to the interest rate, Leaving interest rates at 0.25%

NO Interest Rate Decision 2020-03-20 07:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 19 2020 13th March 2020

An emergency cut of 0.50% to the 1.5% interest rates due to the global pandemic unfolding and the expected significant expected impact on the economy is the first cut to interest rates since 2016

The world started to go into a meltdown as the realisation of a global pandemic began to unfold. There is no surprise the reaction to this was so poor, not even a blip on the charts.

Due to the unprecedented times this first in a series of emergency cuts which doesn't create anything near the reaction we would likely see if a cut of this nature happened in normal times. A reminder of the impact Covid had in 2020, which I'm glad to say is now behind us, and I'll be watching these announcements now and looking for a normal reaction to the data as it's released.

NO Interest Rate Decision 2020-03-13 07:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 0.50

Today's trade plan

Today it is forecast for the rate to remain at 0.50%. All economists predict this therefore, I will take a buy if they hike to 0.75% or a sell if they cut the rates to 0.25%

This equates to a +/- 0.25% Deviation from the forecast of 0.50%

Tradable pairs

EURNOK
USDNOK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Jan 24, 2022

The Week Ahead 24th January 2022

I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.

25th January 2022 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

26th January 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

27th January 2022 13:00 GMT South African Interest Rate
See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9WkE7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Jan 25, 2022

Hungary HUF Interest Rate January 25 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short-term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

Historic deviations and their outcome

July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

Check out the price action here:

HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

Check out the price action here:

HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-06-23 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement 2.7

Today's trade plan

Today I will use a forecast of 2.7%, which is a hike of 0.3%

I am more cautious of buys as central banks worldwide are in a cycle of rate hikes, so a sell scenario would be more of a shock. Therefore I am looking to sell if the actual is 2.5% or less. I will take a buy only if we see an actual of 2.9% or more.
We should see 250 pips from this report if we get a trigger.

Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Jan 26, 2022

Canada Overnight Rate January 26 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.
Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.
A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 0.25

Today's trade plan

There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to remain at 0.25%
The average prediction is 0.36% With forecasts between 0.50% to 0.25%
Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains the same or a buy if they increase to 0.50%

Tradable pairs

AUDCAD
CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Jan 27, 2022

South Africa ZAR IR exp 19/20 m late January 27 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report.

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09
See charts here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x

Historic deviations and their outcome

January 21 2020 A surprise -0.5% cut to the rate, which gave a solid 700 pip move on USDZAR. Awesome move

It's worth noting that the delivery time of this data was 9 mins past the hour.

Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/0/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTA7dD0yMDIwLTAxLTIxJTIwMTM6MDowMC4wO3M9VVNEWkFSO3I9UzE

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 0.40

Today's trade plan

Today it's forecast to see an increase to the rate to 4.00% therefore if we see a higher than expected increase to 4.25% or more I will take a trade on UDSZAR.

I'm not looking to trade if we don't see an increase or the increase is as expected.

Tradable pairs

USDZAR

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Jan 31, 2022

The Week Ahead 31st January 2022

I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.

01st February 2022 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

03rd February 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

03rd February 2022 13:30 GMT Czech Repo Rate
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

04th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change
See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

JamesThatcher · Feb 1, 2022

Australia Cash Rate February 1 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 2020
A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.

Check out the price action here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2NTAzO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 1.00

Today's trade plan

I will trade from a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.

Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 3, 2022

United Kingdom Official Bank Rate February 3 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.
Historic deviations and their outcome

See the report history here :

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 0.50%

Today's trade plan

Today the official forecast is a hike to 0.50%
Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on a deviation of 0.25% in either direction.

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

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