Forex Analysis

JamesThatcher · Feb 3, 2022

Czech Republic CZ CNB Repo Rate February 3 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Czech Republic's benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks can place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from the forecast, which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have provided plenty of opportunities to enter.

Check out the price action here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

CNB Repo Rate 4.5

Today's trade plan

There is a forecast increase to the rate today to 4.5%. I will take a trade in either direction if we see a deviation of 0.5% from the forecast.

Tradable pairs

USDCZK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 4, 2022

United States Non-Farm Employment Change February 4 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 125
Unemployment Rate 3.9

Today's trade plan

Today we have a heavily weighted bias on the downside forecast therefore sells would be dangerous I want to see a deviation of + 200k to take a buy only.

I will be looking for Average Earnings and Unemployment Rate to deviate in the same direction to take a trade. These two lines are very much in focus and can determine how long the move will last.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 14, 2022

The Week Ahead 14th February 2022

In the week ahead, I'll be closely looking at the following releases:-

15th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Claimant Count Change

16th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI

16th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales

15th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Claimant Count Change

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ

16th February 2022 07:00 GMT UK Core CPI

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyME1vTSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ

16th February 2022 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMFJldGFpbCUyMFNhbGVzJTIwJTI4TW9NJTI5

JamesThatcher · Feb 15, 2022

United Kingdom Unemployment Rate February 15 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Unemployment Rate measures the percentage of the total workforce that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous three months.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the GBP, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the GBP.

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9R0I7bm49VW5lbXBsb3ltZW50JTIwUmF0ZQ

I will use forecasts of:

Avg Earnings - ex bonus 3.8
ILO Unemployment Rate (3Mths) 4.10

Today's trade plan

I would like to see a deviation of at least 0.2 on the Unemployment Rate with a supporting deviation from Average Earnings of at least 0.2% If we get these conditions we should see a sustained move lasting a few minutes after the release.

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 16, 2022

United Kingdom Core CPI y/y February 16 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-02-17 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-01-20 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4.3
CPI (M/M) -0.2
CPI (Y/Y) 5.4

Today's trade plan

If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.3 on either

Core CPI Y/Y (Year on Year) or
CPI Y/Y line.

With no conflicts on any other line.

Tradable pairs

GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 16, 2022

Canada Core CPI m/m February 16 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-08-18 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-07-28 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-06-16 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI (M/M) 0.6
CPI (Y/Y) 4.8

Today's trade plan

Today, I will need a 0.3 deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.

Tradable pairs

EURCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 22, 2022

The Week Ahead 21st February 2022

I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.

23rd February 2022 01:00 GMT New Zealand Official Cash Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...9UkJOWiUyMEludGVyZXN0JTIwUmF0ZSUyMERlY2lzaW9u

24th February 2022 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

JamesThatcher · Feb 22, 2022

New Zealand Official Cash Rate February 23 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 1.00

Today's trade plan

Today the forecast is for a hike to the interest rate to 1.00%. There are varying predictions; however, there is about a 30% chance of a further hike to 1.25%.

I will take a buy on an actual outcome of 1.25% or a sell on an actual outcome of 0.75% In either scenario, I would expect to see an unprecedented move on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time. I would prefer a no hike trade.

Tradable pairs

AUDNZD
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDJPY
NZDUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Feb 28, 2022

The Week Ahead 8th February 2022

In the week ahead I'll be closely looking at the following releases

01st March 2022 03:30 GMT Australian Cash Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49UkJBJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

02nd March 2022 15:00 GMT Canadian Overnight Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9DJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

04th March 2022 13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

JamesThatcher · Mar 1, 2022

Australia Cash Rate March 1 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) board members come to a consensus on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the AUD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the AUD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 2020

A Shock cut to the rate of 0.25% from the forecast 0.50% however as the world was going into meltdown from the global pandemic it's no surprise this was mainly ignored by the markets.
Check out the price action here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...C0wMy0xOSUyMDAzOjMwOjAwLjA7cz1FVVJBVUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 0.10

Today's trade plan

I will trade from a 0.15% deviation from the forecast, as no change is expected I will be holding for some time.

Tradable pairs

AUDUSD
EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 2, 2022

Canada Overnight Rate March 2 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of Canada (BOC) governing council members come to a consensus on where to set the rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the CAD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

March 4 2020 A surprise cut by 0.75% however with the global pandemic taking hold around the world it was no surprise this only saw a 60 pip move.

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE2MDExO3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0wNCUyMDE1OjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDQUQ7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 0.5

Today's trade plan

There are varying predictions today, although the official forecast is to hike rates at 0.50%

Therefore today I will take a sell if the rate remains at 0.25% or a buy if they increase to 0.75%

Tradable pairs

CADJPY
EURCAD
GBPCAD
USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 4, 2022

United States Non-Farm Employment Change March 4 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Average Hourly Earnings (M/M) 0.50
Change in NonFarm Payrolls 378,000
US Average Hourly Earnings (Y/Y) 5.80

Today's trade plan

I will be focusing on Average Earnings Y/Y and want this to deviate by at least +/- 0.2% with supporting deviation from the headline NFP to deviate by at least 75k.

I will not tolerate conflicts from Average Earnings M/M

I will ignore all other lines.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 7, 2022

The Week Ahead 7th March 2022

I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.

10th March 2022 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m

See the report history here. https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ

11th March 2022 13:30 GMT Canadian Employment Change

See the report history here.
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9Q0E7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ

JamesThatcher · Mar 10, 2022

United States Core CPI mm March 10 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was mainly because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.5
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 6.4
CPI (M/M) 0.8
CPI (Y/Y) 7.9

Today's trade plan

Today I'm looking for a deviation of +/- 0.2% on ANY of the 4 lines to trigger a buy or sell.

I will confirm that all others lines deviate in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

CPI - Core (M?M)
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 11, 2022

Canada Employment Change March 11 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Employment Change is the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month. More employment is positive for the Canadian dollar and would create a buy of CAD pairs. Also, at the same time comes the Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact; a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Canadian Dollar. Therefore, more people in employment is good for the currency's value as it indicates a stronger economy.

Historic deviations and their outcome

April 9 2021 Massive deviations across the 3 important lines of Employment Change, Full Time, and Unemployment Rate gave us a nice move, and the opportunity to bank a little profit.

Check out the price action here:

CA Employment Change 2021-04-09 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 12 2021 Big deviation, which saw a solid move, Strong Employment Change numbers and Unemployment Rate, gave a 1.0% deviation from the forecast! In previous times we might have got more pips from these numbers, but this still worked great.

Check out the price action here:

CA Employment Change 2021-03-12 13:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 127.5
Unemployment Rate 6.2

Today's trade plan

It's not often we get to trade this Canadian report without having to worry about US Non-Farm Payrolls simultaneously. Today is one of the rare occasions that we can trade it unincumbered.

If we see a deviation of +/- 75k in either direction from the forecast on the headline Employment change, and no conflict with the Unemployment Rate, we should get a nice reaction.

I will also watch the breakdown of Full and Part-Time employment numbers ensuring that the Full-Time figure doesn't conflict with the direction of the trade.

Today I will opt for USDCAD and not EURCAD as the Euro is riskier due to the conflict in Ukraine.

Tradable pairs

USDCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 15, 2022

The Week Ahead 14th March 2022

I'll be closely looking at the following releases in the week ahead.

16th March 2022 12:30 GMT Canadian Core CPI

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9Q0E7bm49Q29yZSUyMENQSSUyMCUyOE1vTSUyOQ

17th March 2022 00:30 GMT Australian Employment Change

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mRhcjtuYmM9QVU7bm49RW1wbG95bWVudCUyMENoYW5nZQ

17th March 2022 11:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jtuYmM9VFI7bm49T25lLVdlZWslMjBSZXBvJTIwUmF0ZQ

17th March 2022 12:00 GMT UK Official Bank Rate

See the report history here
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Mar 16, 2022

Canada Core CPI m/m March 16 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the price of goods and services from the consumer's perspective. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected reading is positive/bullish for the CAD, while a lower than expected reading is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today we saw a solid 0.3 positive deviation which gave a good 20 pip slow move before it retraced.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-08-18 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 28 2021 A minimal 0.1 deviation from forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M with a 0.3 conflict from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y we saw a seven pip move inline with the headline before retracing and carrying on with the pre news trend. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-07-28 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 16 2021 There was no deviation from the forecast on the headline Core CPI M/M. We saw a 0.4 from the secondary line Core CPI Y/Y; however, there was no impact on the price action.

Check out the price action here:

CA Common CPI (YoY) 2021-06-16 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI (M/M) 0.9
CPI (Y/Y) 5.5

Today's trade plan

Today, I will need a 0.2% deviation from the forecast in either direction from the headline CPI M/M (month on month), including supporting deviations of 0.1 in the same direction from CPI Y/Y.

We also have US data at the same time today, so I will only trade on EURCAD to avoid conflicts with other data.

Tradable pairs

EURCAD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 16, 2022

Australia Employment Change March 17 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

There are two main lines of data on this release.

Employment Change, the total number of people employed/changed in the previous month; more employment is positive for the Aussie dollar and would create a buy of AUD pairs.

Unemployment Rate, which has the reverse impact, a higher Unemployment Rate is negative for the Aussie Dollar and would create a sell of AUD pairs.

Historic deviations and their outcome

May 20 2021 Some small deviations caused some nice moves, but all over very quickly.

Check out the price action here:

AU Employment Change 2021-05-20 01:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 We got a minus -0.5% positive deviation on Unemployment Rate with complimentary +58k positive deviation on the Employment Change, which gave a great move for the first minute where I banked a few pips here in the first 30 seconds, a great outcome!

Check out the price action here:

AU Employment Change 2021-03-18 00:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

February 18 2021 A prime example of why both lines must deviate in the same direction. This time it conflicted between Unemployment Rate and Employment Change which didn't create a move from which I could profit. So I stayed on the sidelines.

Check out the price action here:

AU Employment Change 2021-02-18 00:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Employment Change 37.0
Unemployment Rate 0.4

Today's trade plan

The focus today will be on the Unemployment Rate. This is the key metric that the RBA (Reserve Bank of Australia) is watching and could affect future monetary policy decisions (Interest rates).

If we get a 0.4% deviation from the forecast Unemployment Rate in either direction with no conflict from Employment Change, then we should see some good moves on AUD pairs.

If both lines deviate harmoniously, we should see a sustained move and rack up a fair amount of pips along the way.

Tradable pairs

EURAUD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 17, 2022

Turkey Turkish Rate Decision March 17 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey's (CBRT) Monetary Policy Committee votes on setting the overnight interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the TRY (Turkish Lira), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 23 2021 Today we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast remained at 19%. The last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5%, we saw 900 pips immediately after.

Today, I'm delighted to say we again saw the same shock cut to 18 % and over 1000 pips banked.
Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-09-23 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

March 18 2021 Today we saw a +1.0 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave a nice move of 750 pips in the first minute, then great continuation afterwards, too!

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2021-03-18 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

December 24 2020 Today we saw a +0.5 positive deviation from the forecast, which gave 475 pips in one minute. Brilliant.

Check out the price action here:

TR One-Week Repo Rate 2020-12-24 11:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Benchmark Rate 14.00

Today's trade plan

Today there is no change expected. Therefore If they hike to 15%, I'll take a buy, If they cut to 13%, I'll take a sell.

If this hits, I'll be looking to bank somewhere in the region of 800 - 1000 pips, but I'll not hang around as I expect some volatility under the circumstances. Also, watch the spreads; they could go crazy as this report comes out.

Tradable pairs

EURTRY
USDTRY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Mar 17, 2022

United Kingdom Official Bank Rate March 17 2022

What does the data mean to the market?

Bank of England (BOE) monetary policy committee members vote on where to set the rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the GBP, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the GBP.

Historic deviations and their outcome

See the report history here :
https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...49Qm9FJTIwSW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Statement 0.75

Today's trade plan

Today the official forecast is for the rate to be hiked to 0.75% Therefore I will be looking to take a buy or sell on an deviation of 0.25% in either direction

43 out of 46 economists predict a hike to 0.75% so there is a small amount of doubt.

Tradable pairs

GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forex Analysis

From the News