Forex Analysis

JamesThatcher · Sep 23, 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Higher interest rates are great for the value of the currency. Therefore, higher interest rates will create a BUY on ZAR Pairs and vice versa.
We see deviations often. We have seen four deviations since November 2018, which is excellent from a bi-monthly report. Historic deviations and their outcome

April 2020 - We had a surprise cut of 1.5%, it was unscheduled, and the market wasn't ready to react. We don't have a chart for this, as it's an infrequent scenario.

March 2020 - An excellent cut of -0.50 gave a 1600 pip move over 3 mins. Not on the chart the data arrives 9 mins late, so the chart time is 13.09

See charts here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtpPTE2NTI5O3Q9MjAyMC0wMy0xOTtyPU0x

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate Decision 3.5

Today's trade plan
If we see a -/+ 0.25 deviation in either direction, then we can expect the market to go into shock, I would target a total move of at least 800 pips which should provide multiple opportunities to enter and bank some nice pips.

Tradable pairs
USDZAR

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!
Good luck!!
James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Sep 24, 2021

Yesterday we got the type of trade I live for, a surprise cut to the Turkish interest rate.

With only one out of twenty-three economists predicting a change to the rate, the forecast was to remain at 19%. Last time we saw a shock move of more than 0.5% we saw 900 pips immediately after.

Today, I'm delighted to say we saw the same again a shock cut to 18 % and over a 1000 pips banked.

Happy Friday, Everyone

See Chart here:

Galaxy Economic Calendar

calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com

See the video at :

JamesThatcher · Sep 27, 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

29th September 2021 15:30 GMT Us Crude Oil Inventories

Check out the history and charts of the report.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

30th September 2021 13:30 GMT Czech CNB Repo Rate

Check out the history and charts of the report.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9Q1o7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

30th September 2021 19:00 GMT Mexican Interest Rate

Check out the history and charts of the report.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9TVg7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

JamesThatcher · Sep 29, 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzNDMyO3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0yMiUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.
Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYzMDY0O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0xNSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTYyNjg3O3Q9MjAyMS0wOS0wMSUyMDE0OjMwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RPSUw7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +500
DOE Gasoline Inventories 0

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3500 in either direction from the forecast on Oil and a supporting deviation in the same direction from Gasoline of +/- 1500, we can expect a sustained move from Crude Oil or Brent.

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

1) DOE Crude Forecast = -2150 (BB)
2) API Actual Crude = +4100
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = -1500 (BB)
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3600

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher
Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Sep 30, 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Mexico's central bank votes on where to set the countries interest rate.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the MXN (Mexican Peso), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the MXN.

Historic deviations and their outcome

June 24 2021 A shock hike in the rate by 0.25 basis points saw three minutes of continuing price action, making for a lovely trade and lots of opportunity to bank loads of pips.

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2021-06-24 18:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 12 2020 We saw an increase of +18 basis point (bps) from the average forecast, which created a massive 546 pip move in the first minute following the data release, that's an average of 30 pips per basis point. Great move!

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2020-11-12 19:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 15 2019 We saw a cut of -25 basis points (bps) from the average forecast, resulting in a move of 831 pips which was a lovely move!

Check out the price action here:

MX Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-15 18:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 4.75

Today's trade plan

Twenty-five economists predict a no change whereas one is suggesting a cut to 4.5 which gives us an outside chance of a trade.

I will be looking for a deviation of 0.25 in either direction from the forecast, which should result in another very tradable move.

Tradable pairs

USDMXN

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Sep 30, 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

In the Czech Republic, the benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks are allowed to place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from forecast which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have given plenty of opportunities to enter.

Check out the price action here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

CNB Repo Rate 1.25

Today's trade plan

Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 1.25%, which is a 0.50% hike to the rate. All economists are unanimous of this outcome, but I'll be ready to trade if the actual result is not as predicted.

Take a trade if we see a 0.25% deviation from the 1.25% forecast to take a buy or sell.

Tradable pairs

EURCZK
USDCZK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 1, 2021

JamesThatcher said:
What does the data mean to the market?

In the Czech Republic, the benchmark interest rate is set by the Czech National Bank (CNB). The official interest rate is the two-week repo rate, a rate at which commercial banks are allowed to place excess funds at the end of the day with the Central Bank.

Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the CZK while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 6 2020 Today we saw a 0.25% deviation from forecast which gave a lovely and steady 190 pips move over about 15 minutes which would have given plenty of opportunities to enter.

Check out the price action here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jaGFydDtpPTE1MDc0O3Q9MjAyMC0wMi0wNiUyMDEzOjAwOjAwLjA7cz1VU0RDWks7cj1NMQ

I will use forecasts of:

CNB Repo Rate 1.25

Today's trade plan

Today we have a forecasted change to the interest rate to 1.25%, which is a 0.50% hike to the rate. All economists are unanimous of this outcome, but I'll be ready to trade if the actual result is not as predicted.

Take a trade if we see a 0.25% deviation from the 1.25% forecast to take a buy or sell.

Tradable pairs

EURCZK
USDCZK

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Today we saw the CNB hike the Repo Rate higher than all the economists predicted. They hiked the rates by 0.75 basis points, the highest rate hike since 1997. Giving us a great sell opportunity on USDCZK with a nice staggered move down 140 pips over the next 90 seconds. An excellent trade

See Chart here:

Galaxy Economic Calendar

calendar.galaxysoftwareinc.com

See the video at :

Kazumu Fukunaga · Oct 3, 2021

Firstly you have to learn how to trade forex online. Then you have to develop skills. Without analysis skills and mind control regular profit making is not possible. So focus on learning.

JamesThatcher · Oct 4, 2021

The Week Ahead 04th October 2021

In the week ahead, i'll be looking closely at the following releases.

06th October 2021 15:30GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

08th October 2021 13:30GMT US Non-Farm Employment Change

See the report history here https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...lbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Tm9uZmFybSUyMFBheXJvbGxz

JamesThatcher · Oct 6, 2021

New Zealand Official Cash Rate October 6 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) governor decides to set the rate after consulting senior bank staff and external advisers. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the NZD, while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the NZD.

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 18 2021 Today was unanimously forecast that they would like the rate to 0.50% however they didn't do so and kept rates at 0.25% This was classed as a deviation to the downside of 0.25% and we saw some 50 pips move in the first minute with some 25 pips of continuation.
Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2021-08-18 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

November 13 2019 A shock +0.25 deviation created a fantastic move over 85 pips in the first minute, with price pushing higher for some time after the news release, a great move to bank a healthy amount of pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-11-13 01:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 7 2019 RBNZ was highly expected to cut the rates on this occasion; however they held the rates, therefore a no change here I classed it as a 0.25 deviation which saw a healthy 90 pip move, another great opportunity to bank those pips.

Check out the price action here:

NZ RBNZ Interest Rate Decision 2019-08-07 02:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Interest Rate 0.50

Today's trade plan

Today The Markets are expecting a minimum of a 0.25 basis point (BPS) hike.
So an actual outcome of a 0.50% interest rate

One economist is predicting no change, so rates will remain at 0.25%

If we see no change in interest rates, they are kept at 0.25% We can expect a solid move to the downside that I would expect to continue for some time.

If we see a change to the interest rates to 0.75% (Effectively +0.25% deviation), I would expect to see an unprecedented move to the upside on all NZD pairs, which should last some considerable time.

Tradable pairs

AUDNZD
EURNZD
GBPNZD
NZDCHF
NZDJPY
NZDUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 6, 2021

United States Crude Oil Inventories October 6 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-22 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-15 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +1000
DOE Gasoline Inventories +2000

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +4700
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -500

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1000 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +1000
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = +400 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = +3700

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 7, 2021

JamesThatcher · Oct 8, 2021

United States Non-Farm Employment Change October 8 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The headline data of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) reflects the change in the number of people employed during the previous month. A higher number of people employed is good for the US economy and would create a buying opportunity on the USD. Vice versa, a lower number would be bad for the US and would generate a sell on the USD.

NFP comes out with six lines of data which makes this report far more complex. The other two significant lines of data I watch are the Unemployment Rate and Average Earnings.

The Unemployment Rate, a lower number, is good for the USD and vice versa. Whereas Average Earning a higher number is better for the US economy and vice versa.

All three lines must deviate in the same direction. I will not tolerate a conflict from either UR and AE.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 3 2021 Today I saw a massive deviation of -515k on the headline Non-farm Payrolls with Unemployment Rate coming out as expected. We saw a decent 20 pip move with continuation after that for the next few minutes. Noticeably GBPUSD worked better on this report.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-09-03 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

August 6 2021 A small 74 deviation actually created a nice move but mainly because UE helped with a 0.3 deviation.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-08-06 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 2 2021 A decent size 130 deviation gave an excellent spike, but with a 0.3 conflict from Unemployment Rate, we soon saw the move being snuffed out, seeing a severe retrace, just as expected. But, again, this shows the importance of looking at all lines of data.

Check out the price action here:

US Nonfarm Payrolls 2021-07-02 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Change in NonFarm Payrolls 500
Unemployment Rate 5.1

Today's trade plan

This report is nicely in focus. It holds the key to when the US Federal Reserve will start tapering.

Today I want to see a deviation to the downside of -250 or +175 upside to take a trade in the relative direction. Anything between those figures, I would expect to have a poor reaction as we want the markets to be sure which way this will affect the Fed's decision over monetary policy.

I'll accept a conflicting deviation from the Unemployment Rate of +/- 0.3% today. I'll set up mainly on GBPUSD as this has been working better on this report lately.

This one can get volatile immediately after the data is released while the market digests the numbers. Hold onto your hats. This one is not for the fainthearted.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 12, 2021

The Week Ahead 11th October 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

13th October 2021 13:30 GMT US Core CPI m/m

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4TW9NJTI5

14th October 2021 08:30 GMT SWEDISH CPI MM

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9U0U7bm49Q1BJJTIwJTI4WW9ZJTI5

14th October 2021 16:00 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...mM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

15th October 2021 13:30 GMT US Core Retail Sales m/m

See the report history here.

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwarei...M9VVM7bm49UmV0YWlsJTIwU2FsZXMlMjAlMjhNb00lMjk

JamesThatcher · Oct 13, 2021

United States Core CPI m/m October 13 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the price of goods and services, excluding food and energy. The CPI measures price change from the perspective of the consumer. It is a key way to measure changes in purchasing trends and inflation.

A higher than expected number is positive/bullish for the USD, a lower than expected number is negative/bearish for the USD.
There are 4 lines of data.

CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y)

Historic deviations and their outcome

August 11 2021 A small conflict on headline YY prevented a good follow-through, but still, we saw a nice spike. Notice how GBPUSD is outperforming other FX pairs now on US news!

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-08-11 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 13 2021 A strong 0.5 positive deviation with support from the other 3 lines created a reasonable and safe move on many pairs, especially EURUSD.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-07-13 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

June 10 2021 Reasonable deviation but a little continuation on USD pairs. This was largely because The US Federal Reserve Board indicated it would look through positive inflation and won't change monetary policy on the back of high inflation. Therefore a sell would have been better on this release.

Check out the price action here:

US Core CPI (MoM) 2021-06-10 12:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (M/M) 0.2
CPI - Core (Y/Y) 4
CPI (M/M) 0.3
CPI (Y/Y) 5.3

Today's trade plan

The focus is on CPI - Core (M/M) - Headline.

Today I'm looking for a deviation of 0.2% to trigger a buy or sell on GBPUSD.

I will confirm that all others line deviates in the same direction, I will not accept a conflict on any other three lines!

Secondary Lines -
CPI - Core (Y/Y)
CPI - (M/M)
CPI - (Y/Y

If they all lineup, we should bank some good pips today.

With year on year inflation standing at nearly double the average inflation in normal times. I don't believe the markets will tolerate any more hyperinflation. Therefore, Today either buys or sells will work with a trigger of 0.2%

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 14, 2021

United States Crude Oil Inventories October 14 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

The data indicates the number of crude oil barrels held by commercial firms in the US; this inventory is taken weekly and shows increases or decreases needed in supply, affecting the price. Therefore, a Positive number is bad for the oil price and vice versa.

Other oil data is released the night before this report, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock, which the market looks for as an indicator of today's announcement, which can gauge how it will respond, so it's worth keeping an eye on that also.

There are two mainline of data to focus on. The two lines of DOE Gasoline Inventories and DOE Crude Oil Inventories must not conflict to make this data tradable; Oil is the driving force behind this report.

Historic deviations and their outcome

September 22 2021 A reasonable size deviation from oil just short of my trigger but with a conflict from Gasoline it wasn't a trade for me, Although seeing a nice 30 pip move which continued after that. The risk of ignoring gasoline is too great.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-22 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 15 2021 Sizeable deviation from Crude Oil, unfortunately, Gasoline conflicted, and therefore it wasn't a trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-15 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

September 1 2021 Today we saw a sizeable deviation from oil, but with a conflict from gasoline. Still, we saw a healthy 40 pip spike before it returned to pre news level. Not trade for me.

Check out the price action here:

US Crude Oil Inventories 2021-09-01 14:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

DOE Crude Oil Inventories +2750
DOE Gasoline Inventories -1000

Today's trade plan

If I get a deviation of -/+ 3000 in either direction from the forecast on Oil

DONT allow BUYS if Gasoline is > +1250
DONT allow Sells if Gasoline < -4600

Please note I have used the following hybrid forecasts.

Forecasts and API.
1) DOE Crude Forecast = +1100 BB
2) API Actual Crude = +5200
3) DOE Gasoline Forecast = 1250 BB
4) API Actual Gasoline = -4600

Tradable pairs

USDBNT
USDOIL

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 15, 2021

United States Core Retail Sales m/m October 15 2021

What does the data mean to the market?

Core Retail Sales measures the change in the total value of sales at the retail level in the U.S., excluding automobiles. It is an important indicator of consumer spending and is also considered a pace indicator for the U.S. economy.

A higher than expected reading should be taken as positive/bullish for the USD, while a lower than expected reading should be taken as negative/bearish for the USD.

There are many many lines of data to this report. It’s easy to let the other numbers cloud your judgment.

I focus only on The core month-on-month Figure (MoM)

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Last month Retail sales gave a big upward surprise of +4.9 from the forecast, which is a very large deviation. The overshoot came from the $600 cash given to low earners from the Federal Stimulus package that aimed to boost consumer spending. This was a one-off event so we need to look at this reaction as not normal, It didn't take the market by surprise as it would have in normal times.

Check out the price action here:

US Core Retail Sales (MoM) 2021-02-17 13:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 15 2021 Back in January, we had a more "normal" deviation of around -1.2 from the forecast, but the move was almost non-existent.

Check out the price action here:

US Core Retail Sales (MoM) 2021-01-15 13:30:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Retail Sales - Ex-Autos (M/M) 0.50

Today's trade plan

I'll take a trade if we see a 2.0% from the Core Retail Sales M/M figure with no conflicts from any of the other lines.

Tradable pairs

EURUSD
GBPUSD
USDJPY

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 18, 2021

The Week Ahead 11th October 2021

In the week ahead, I'll be looking closely at the following releases.

19th October 2021 13:00 GMT Hungarian Interest Rate

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9SFU7bm49SW50ZXJlc3QlMjBSYXRlJTIwRGVjaXNpb24

20th October 2021 15:30 GMT US Crude Oil Inventories

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VVM7bm49Q3J1ZGUlMjBPaWwlMjBJbnZlbnRvcmllcw

21st October 2021 12:00 GMT Turkish Rate Decision

See the report history here

https://calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com/l/aHR0cHM6Ly9jYWxlbmRhci5nYWxheHlzb2Z0d2FyZWluYy5jb20vIy9jYWxlbmRhcjtuYmM9VFI7bm49T3Zlcm5pZ2h0JTIwQm9ycm93aW5nJTIwUmF0ZQ

JamesThatcher · Oct 19, 2021

Hungary Interest Rate October 19 2021

Untitled design - 2021-10-19T105522.478.jpg

What does the data mean to the market?

The Hungarian National Bank Monetary Policy Committee's decision on where to set the benchmark interest rate. Traders watch interest rate changes closely as short term interest rates are the primary factor in currency valuation.

A higher than expected rate is positive/bullish for the HUF - (Hungarian Forint), while a lower than expected rate is negative/bearish for the HUF.

Historic deviations and their outcome

July 27 2021 A small +0.1 deviation gave a nice 2-minute move on USDHUF and EURHUF, providing 150 pips total move. If you have a good broker with tight spreads, there were pips available from this event.

Check out the price action here:

HU Interest Rate Decision 2021-07-27 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

July 21 2020 June 23rd 2020, We got a negative -0.15bps (basis points) cut to the interest rate which gave a nice slow move on USDHUF, with many opportunities to enter the market!

Check out the price action here:

HU Interest Rate Decision 2020-07-21 12:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

Base Rate Announcement 1.8

Today's trade plan

Today we have the following forecast ranges.

High Forecast = 1.95
Low Forecast = 1.65
Official Estimate = 1.8
Average = 1.81
Previous intetest rate = 1.65

Looking to take a trade 0.1% deviation from the official forecast so 1.7 to sell and 1.9 to buy

Tradable pairs

EURHUF
USDHUF

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

JamesThatcher · Oct 20, 2021

United Kingdom Core CPI y/y October 20 2021

Untitled design - 2021-10-20T063818.870.jpg

What does the data mean to the market?

The UK's most important inflation data, it’s the leading central bank's inflation target. Recently the BOE has sighted this data as particularly important, so I think we should see a reaction from it.

Historic deviations and their outcome

February 17 2021 Feb 2021, +0.2 on both lines gave a small pop up, but nothing too exciting

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-02-17 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

January 20 2021 Jan 2021, after the Brexit deal, a +0.1 deviation did manage to get a slight market reaction.

Check out the price action here:

GB Core CPI (YoY) 2021-01-20 07:00:00.0

calendarapi.galaxysoftwareinc.com

I will use forecasts of:

CPI - Core (Y/Y) 3.0
CPI (M/M) 0.4
CPI (Y/Y) 3.2

Today's trade plan

If we get a deviation from both lines of 0.2 on either Year on Year line. with no conflicts on any other line we should see 15 - 20 pips.

Tradable pairs

EURGBP
GBPAUD
GBPCAD
GBPNZD
GBPUSD

Hope this helps but please do your own analysis!!

Good luck!!

James Thatcher

Trading foreign exchange on margin carries a high level of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. Before deciding to invest in foreign exchange you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment and therefore you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with foreign exchange trading, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you have any doubts.

Forex Analysis

Attachments

Attachments

Attachments

Attachments

Attachments

Attachments

From the News