Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7323.8 | +429.3
20 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Cyprus, the tiny island over the past few days took centre stage in the world financial market and we are sure all traders has been follow the news with great interest as what will be unfold? The uncertainty and news, rumours....whatever have you, are fascinating from all leading media outlets, one minute we have rumours of Finance Minister forwarded his Resignation just to see a few hours later the Minister came out asking – where was that come from?
Anyway, let us dissect the issue according to our personal understanding of the issue.
First of all, it was a nasty surprise over the weekend for many market participants, including us all, in our view it was a heavy handed deal and unfair to the Cypriots. Maybe, the ECB and the IMF have run out of ideas on how to bandage the leaking wounds within the Euro Zone, OR, maybe this was a way for the Germans to get back at the Russians as many of the market watchers saying the sort of deals has the Germans written all over it and the Germans want to get back at the Russians for shutting of their Gas supply some years back by taxing the over-sea depositors in Cyprus banks and as according to the press, Cyprus is the financial hub for money laundering and they estimated that funds from depositors from Russia amount from somewhere between 20 to 35 billion Euro. Wow, no wonder, Russian strong man, Vladimir Putin is spruiking about the deal, calling it “unfair, unprofessional...”.
Secondly, Banks in Cyprus have calling in for sick leave and will not resume for business until tomorrow, Thursday, we would not be surprise to see if they calling in for Long Service Leave and stay shut for weeks until they can find a solution to calm the market to avoid Banks raid by depositors. Since Monday, every account is only able to withdraw with a daily limit of 400 Euros and we suspect, many of the automatic teller machines has now running on empty and we won’t surprise to see lining up to cash out once Banks reopen for business regardless of whatever deals they strike.
Thirdly, Cyprus is now in a very difficult, catch 22 situation such that is they accept the deal and pass the bill through parliament then many, many people will not be very happy and could potentially lead to social unrest and this could be contagious to other countries within the Euro Zone as people from other financial trouble like Spain, Italy, Ireland, Portugal will pose a question as to when will they going to cope such horrible deal?. But, by not accepting the deal they could risk the Bankruptcy and eventually being forced out of the Euro. Although, it’s only a tiny nation within the Euro Groups but it still can send the market into a tail spin.
Anyway, this can of worm has open and just only a scratch on the surface so do not expect it will die down any sooner and the Euro will get messier over the coming months and then maybe “Druggie” the Saviour will come out with the recent famous rhetoric: “ ...do whatever it take to save the Euro”. Until then, we can’t see any reason to be bullish on the Euro, not until it get down to 1.1800 to 1.2100.
EURGBP – we are still looking for at least another 180 pips drop to our TP2 and retest the major uptrend line on Daily chart. Prices has now broke down from the short term uptrend line as well as broke down from the range. Currently, fundamentally and technically this pair has all the bearish signs written all over it, so we stick to it until our prices target is reach or until the major uptrend line being retested.
GBPNZD – After forming a double bottom and broke out of the downtrend channel on Daily chart the pair has been consolidating sideway over the last 4 trading days. A clear break and close above 1.8430 will signal an advance toward to projected target @1.8750 there about and if we use double bottom projected target would take us to 1.8850.
We also have order on AUD pairs. We will go into more details on this 2 pairs tomorrow.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7323.8 | +429.3
21 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
After the Parliament ballot on Bailout deal was overwhelmingly rejected on taxing the depositors and so the negotiation between the Cyprus officials and the ECB continues. Traders and investors alike are now pinning hope on the ECB to come up on better solution to save Cyprus. The ECB, European Union and the IMF (aka Troika) is currently standing firm on their ground such that Cyprus will not get the Bailout Funds (10 billion Euros) it needs unless Cyprus can raise up to 5.8 billion Euros and complies with the original deal and that has the market rumour on Russian to be Cyprus Saviour by acquiring its trouble banks.
Funnily from yesterday update we mentioned of possible banking shutdown for some extended time instead of reopen for business on Thursday as announced last Monday and late yesterday during NY session we have the Cyprus official announced that banks will take on the extended Vacation and will not open for business until Tuesday next week. Again, do not hold your breath as this could extend further, a Long Service Leave this time, if there’s no reasonable deal eventuated.
Amazing isn’t it? In this day and age, a country that is being considered as a tax haven with billions of dollars from over-sea depositing into their banks and now financially cripple with the entire banking sector shut down for “Vacation” and we suspect that by this time probably all of their Automatic Teller Machines are now running empty. Certainly, account holders and the people of Cyprus, the Mums and Dads must now feel like sitting on fire. So, what will happen when they come back from vacation and reopen for business? We don’t think whatever the Government officials say, there will be a run on banks if not riots. Think about it. We have people being starve from their funds for more than a week to cover their daily needs so they will have to rush to banks for their dough to pay for goods, foods...etc. and there are people that no longer trust banks will try every mean, in every way close their accounts. We have no idea if you would do that but we know for sure from the team of myfxpedia would not hesitate to be the first in line to empty our account at first opportunity.
Impact News today:
04:00 am (NY) EUR – French Flash Manufacturing PMI
04:30 am (NY) EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
05:30 am (NY) GBP – Retail Sales
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
10:00 am (NY) USD – Existing Home Sales; Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index
Technical Analysis:
EAs mention above, traders and investors alike are still pinning hope on the Cyprus issue and we saw the Equities market were taking a breather yesterday but the risk currencies like Euro, Pound and Aussie do not share that view and end the day rather mute.
Anyway, as mentioned yesterday we will do the technical analysis on the orders we had yesterday: AUDUSD and AUDCAD. We have the aggressive entry order on AUDUSD triggered yesterday so let see what’s on the chart.
AUDUSD – Daily, we can see that the pair has manage to retrace to the upside and found strong Resistance at 61.8% Fib level. Momentum is overbought. We will go to H4 for our Entry order.
AUDUSD – H4, here we can see prices is trading within symmetrical triangle between the 50% and 61.8% Fib levels. We had have continuous bearish Divergence, Prices trading at Strong Resistances, the Daily mother trend is down and so we had one Pending limit sell order as aggressive entry at Resistances Level and a Pending Sell Stop order which is clearly below the minor support (1.0340) as well as below the 50% fib level.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7323.8 | +429.3
22 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Cyprus trotting for banks has start taking shape:
The Euro zone, particular the Troika has now given Cyprus the ultimatum timeline, either to accept the austerity measure as set out last Saturday in return for 10 billion Euro. What a debacle this is and as of now Cypriots are lining up at ATM to withdraw their daily maximum allow, just grab what they can in case they banks decided to go for Long Service Leave and there are talks that some banks have now even lower the daily limits withdrawal as well. They must have been running low on the cold hard cash in their vault. Also, there are business in Cyprus even refuse to accept Credit Card payment for goods purchase as well and so Credit cards holders are now just holding on a piece of plastic that have no value for the time being.
Now, what’s so frustrating is the fact that they were aware of deterioration in Cyprus banking system for sometimes yet just keep blind eyes and hope it would go away. Yet, about 1 ½ years ago, the ECB officials did the bank Stress Test on the Cyprus 3 biggest banks and they all passed the Test and now the 2 biggest banks, namely Bank of Cyprus and Laiki Bank are on the brink of collapse. What does that tell you? Either the Cypriots cooked the books or the ECB officials that carried out the Test must be incompetently “numb nuts”......or perhaps there was a collusion of conspiracy between them.
Going into the weekend, many of traders intensely watch out for any development and what will be unfold next Monday. As far as we concern, Whatever the outcome eventuate this weekend the FX market going to be a rough ride after this weekend as we all know the Equities markets has been under the burner since beginning of 2013 that rally on lack of volumes and definitely there are bears lurking around, waiting for opportunity to bounce on and this Cyprus debacle could happens to be the catalyst that they were looking for.
Impact News today:
05:00 am (NY) EUR – German Business Climate
Technical Analysis:
Seriously, the last 2 weeks has been most difficult trading conditions of all, unless you are scalping. Prices swinging up and down by the minutes with no definitive trending so we were reluctant to take on news trade beside the pairs we already hold for the medium terms and we advise you just to be patient as things is slowly working in our favour.
It’s hard to understand what cause the up moved in the AUD yesterday but let us try to put up few scenarios to you, just food for thoughts folks. Ok, as things happening in Cyprus there maybe capital flights slowly taking place and Australia, with the low sovereignty risk yet attractive with higher Interest Rate than any developed countries and one of a few country that is still carrying a AAA rating. Therefore, if there is going to be capitals flight looking for refuge, Australia no doubt would be a very attractive destination. On technical side, we can see that since the beginning of the week AUDUSD has been trading side way between the 50 – 61.8% Fib levels and many of traders could have taking Short positions after the pair closed the Gap with tight Stops, a perfect set up for Market Makers doing Stop Hunts. If we look at H4 chart we can see that, yesterday we had a bullish candle that break out of the Resistance and halted after about 50 pips higher and that’s probably would have clean out lots of Stops. Now, if it was truly just Stop Hunts then prices will probably fully reverse course today and runs lower. If prices close below yesterday H4 bullish candle then it confirmed our view and AUDUSD will start its journey down.
In another technical view, if this breakout to the upside is genuine then it could have lots more to go with next target of 1.0550. Therefore our entry that was triggered yesterday, we will scale down our stop to about 8 pips above yesterday high. We also cancelled our pending Sell Stop on the pair but will add on to our position if prices pullback and trades below yesterday low.
AUDCAD – Same scenario with this pair. Yesterday, a bullish candle managed to reach the top of the bullish wedge and triggered our 2nd entry, base on Divergence on Daily and Continuous Divergence on H4 . Now, on Daily prices has been in the overbought mode for sometimes and is in the process of forming Negative Divergence on Daily while on H4 we had have Continuous Negative Divergence. Note, prices is trading close to last year high (1.0775). Our stop on this pair will be about 65 pips above last year high. We are looking for this pair to correct and if prices break down below the wedge then 1st target will be the Daily uptrend support with 2nd target is the weekly uptrend line (Purple).
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:245 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7323.8 | +429.3
25 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Cyprus has finally seal the deal the Troika in the 11th hour and this deal was being view as positive for the Euro Group as evidence in the minute the FX market open during Asian session and a relief rally on the Asian stock markets.
The question now is how do they mend and calm the nerves and confidence in the over-sea investors as now, it’s evident that their banking system is in a total mess. The major contributor sectors to the Cyprus economy were mainly its financial sector, namely banking, and Tourism and now with no confidence in their banking sector, Travellers will or might also pose questions before booking for holiday in Cyprus as well, firstly will there be demonstration, riots? Will there be cash to withdraw or do they have to physically carrying cash into the Cyprus for holiday to avoid being unable to withdraw any due to limitation of withdrawal.....?
Anyway, tomorrow Tuesday as being schedule by the authority for banks to reopen for business. It’ll be interesting to see the reaction of Cypriots and account holders when banks do actually open and how do authority manage or impose temporary measure to stamp flight of funds from its banking system or even out of the country. The next few days or even weeks and months this issue of Cyprus will still be a closely watch topic.
Impact News today:
01:15 pm (NY) USD – Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Technical Analysis:
This market is really testing our patience of late. We have nothing to add today on the pairs we still holds and today with lack of high impact news we do not expect much movement except for the issue of Cyprus which will and can move the market if any unexpected development popping up.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:246 | 5 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7259.9 | +365.4
26 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Surprise, surprise....all banks in Cyprus are being ordered to stay shut until Thursday pending Government decision. Yesterday when Germany Finance Minister Dijsselbloem mistakenly saying that the case for Cyprus is sort of a template for the Euro zone, although he later retracted but the damage has already been done as we quickly saw the Euro dropped below 1.2950 then below 1.2900 rather quickly. What was so bad about that? Well, if what they enforced on banks in Cyprus and use that as template then the trouble countries such as Portugal, Spain, Italy Ireland and whatever might pop up later will facing the same strict criteria and this probably is an invitation to people in the trouble countries to take care of their savings themselves and stop relying on banks, thus, banks run is inevitable. We don’t know with the retracted statement has done anything to actually calm the market.
Elsewhere, Japan BOJ governor Kuroda has reiterate that Japan determination to achieve its inflation target and its willingness to commit the so call unlimited QE until inflation target is achieved and this has further weaken the Yen. We suspect that the development around the Cyprus issues will take centre stage for sometimes, over the past week since news broke out the market reacts quite resilient to all bad news. Traders/investors still pinning on hope of “...doing whatever it take to keep the Euro together”. This sort of hype and hope from bandaging the bleeding wound will ultimately comes in a full blow catastrophe, it’s now not a question of will we have a correction in the Equity market or not but when and how soon?
Impact News today:
08:30 am (NY) USD – Core Durable Goods Orders
10:00 am (NY) USD - CB Consumer Confidence; New Home Sales
08:30 pm (NY) NZD – ANZ Business Confidence.
Technical Analysis:
GBPNZD – As said many times in previous update this pair is currently building the bottom and our first target of 1.8750 is still achievable once 1.8430 is cleared and with market at peak of late and once correction taking its toll this pair will give us nice correction to the upside. We just have to be patience. Yes, we know we could have exit the pairs for tiny profits on average when prices at 1.8400 thereabout; but, on the same token, we could as well miss out on the run if the pair keep on running north. We have been with it for a while now so why cut ourselves short?
EURGBP – This pair still has another 100 to 150 pips to the downside to have strong Major support or until the Major uptrend line (Daily) is being retested. We are looking for at least another 100 pips drop or thereabout to exit this pair. Note, the upside for this pair is currently limited, any meaning run to the upside is an opportunity to add on to Short position.
AUDCAD – on Daily, this pair has reached the top of the channel and prices over the last 2 weeks has formed an expanding wedge with momentum being overbought and Negative Divergence is seen on Daily. Our initial target for this pair is when prices pullback toward MA(20) and 2nd target would be the opposite of Bollinger Band or major uptrend line, whichever come first.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 08 Months , 04 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:246 | 5 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7259.9 | +365.4
27 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Again, the market just ignore any bad data and keep power ahead although with single digit. This is truly frustrating and worrying and most of the times when reality bites it will be painful. The way we see this sort of market behaviour is like window dressing, it’s like a perfect storm in the making. Note that tomorrow going to be the last trading day of the month and since the beginning of the year the market has been in the bullish mode for the last 13 weeks. By any measure, a rally or a drop of more than 13 weeks without decent pullback is extremely rare and especially when the rally is without economic fundamental backing is bluntly dangerous. If you recalled on one of our update on 14th and 15th March 2013 that we mention scenario of 1936 and the assessment of Tyler Durban from Zerohedge.com you will see the similarities currently taking shapes.
Tomorrow is also be the day that we’ll have a clear picture of the reaction from the Cypriots when Banks reopen, if and only if they open for business, don’t be surprised to see Authorities order Banks, bank personnel to take an extended sick leave. It’s not banking personnel have a choice of taking sick leave, they have been sick, just as the whole Cyprus banking debacle as well as its own Government have been sick since the day they caught from Greece.
The more we read into the deal of the bail out for Cyprus the more uncertainties, worries and surely feeling sick in the stomach if you are a big account holders, they are now looking down the barrel of at least 40% haircut to their deposit. We are not quite sure that the term “haircut” is appropriate in this case.... it’s more like 2/3 of body chop. And what else? If your funds in the bank that isn’t insure then you are looking at about 80% chop, ouch. Definitely, there are many unhappy customers will soon make their point, one way or another the banking systems in Cyprus will never be the same, can never be trust, if not to say all banks in Euro Group are not to be trust at all.
We will know later during NY trading session if banks will go ahead as schedule to open for business tomorrow. They are now facing problems from business owners who are running of cash to pay employees and shoppers are running low in cash to shop and so if we have further delay in the opening then businesses will suffer and likely a domino effect will taking shapes that eventually crumbling down and the Government of Cyprus have no choice but throwing the towel. Such a terrible predicament.
Impact News today:
05:30 am (NY) GBP – Current Account
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core CPI
10:00 am (NY) USD – Pending Home Sales.
Technical Analysis:
Our views on the coming week or 2 is not changing and yes we are still confident of the pairs that we currently hold that will playing out accordingly.
Yesterday in the late NY sessions our pending sell order on NZDUSD triggered. See charts below:
NZDUSD - H4
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:248 | 7 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 199 | 6 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7346.9 | +452.4
28 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Cyprus banks is schedule to open for business today after almost 2 weeks of “sick leave”. Starting at 10 GMT to 4GMT today and will be closely watch by many market participants. They have imposed a tight control on banks today with Polices, Security guards on full alert and there is only limited withdrawal of 300Euros per account per day. They also put in a tighter control on the border as no more than 3000 Euros is allow to be taken out of the country.
This action in our view is only buying times for the Authorities, Politicians, spin Doctors to come up with some sort of idea to sooth investors, account holders. In other words, they are trying to minimise the impact of sudden collapse or at least control the running of cash in the orderly manner. It’s now a tad too late and any restriction now bring put in place is just buying times and when such restriction is lifted, as normally is required in any free market and open society, the big account holders will soon demand for their dough to be moved to somewhere else where they feel safe and sound.
To add on to this uncertainty we have Italy, a country that currently has not form an elected Government and its appalling market data keep hitting the market as well as their bond yields creeping up again as investors are starting to feel the effect of the Cyprus uncertainty that could be contagious and catch on to most part of Europe.
Also, today is going to be the last day of the month for Equity markets before we head off for Easter Break. Note also, today is the last day of the quarter and so a bit of big boy’s portfolio will be shuffle around and since we had have a strong run at the beginning of the year it would not be surprise to see a “risk off” day today on the Equity market which will also directly affect the FX market especially on the “risk” currencies that have been buoyed of late and do not be surprise to see a strong pullback in the first 2 weeks of April and any push higher over the next few trading days is just window dressing. We are not at all bearish or doom about the market but we think that if we do have a good pullback over the next 2 weeks than it will be much healthier for the market in the latter half of the year.
Impact News today:
08:30 am (NY) CAD – GDP
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
Technical Analysis:
Yesterday we exit 2 positions on AUDCAD as prices reached support and H4 being oversold. Since we exited 16 hours ago, prices just oscillates in a tight range.
EURGBP has playing out nicely. we will what development will be made tonight before making our decision.
GBPNZD – As we had said many times this pairs is in the process of forming bottom and once 1.8430 is taken out will have a strong advance to the upside. Yes, the spread on this pair is pain but remember, the journey to success in the Trading for Living is not all smooth and painless. We have our rough patch here and there, it’s how we overcome that and what we have learn is worth much more than a few bucks here and there each month.
Be patience and we wish everyone a very Happy Easter.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:248 | 0 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 199 | 0 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7723.1 | 0
2 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Welcome back and we hoped that everyone had has a very happy Easter. Last Thursday the banks in Cyprus reopened for business, on surface it looked calm and well under control but deep down is the worrying sign for all account holders and we will not see the true picture of people reaction until all the strict Terms and Conditions being lifted. The few points of highlight of the Terms and Conditions of Banking Restriction in Cyprus are:
1) 300 Euro withdrawal per day from any one bank
2) No more than 1000 Euro to be taken out of the country.
3) No cashing of cheques unless issue by bank from another country
4) Any cash payment or Money transfer above 5000 Euro up to 200,000 will have to seek Central Bank approval
5) Term Deposit account holders unable to break their term unless being used to offsetting (pay off) loan of the same bank
6) Capital control apply to all accounts, all kind of currency
7) Capital control will not apply to new money deposited from over-sea after March 27
Of all the points summarised above we cannot stop giving a bit of a chuckle on point (6). Wow, although they give no incentive for new daring and brave enough to open new accounts in any banks in Cyprus and deposit large chunk of money. Well, at least they have given the new account holders the exemption of not being stuck to the Restricted conditions....not yet anyway.
Think about it. This Capital control obviously breached the very basic principle of the EU, which allow freedom of labour and capital movement and now with the restriction in placed it has created the inequality value of the Euro, don’t you think? Obviously, the Euro in Cyprus at the moment will be of lesser value than the Euro in France, Germany...etc. and the longer the restriction is in place we will have the “Cyprus Euro” which Cyprus will eventually leaving the Euro.
Now let leave the Cyprus issue aside for now and see what the market will be doing this week. Today, we will soon have the Australian RBA rate decision and many of the leading economics are tipping that rates are to stay on hold. We just wondering if the RBA would surprise the market and take on proactive roll and join in the currency war instead of sitting on the fence with the theme of wait and see which often than not is too late when they have to go in defensive mode. The Aussie dollars has been 1 of the strongest currency over the last 4 to 5 years, the last time it was at 0.60 was in 2008 in the mid of GFC since then it had been a stellar performer. But don’t forget that we are now in global trade competition and higher dollars will put you in a disadvantage trade competitions, killing your exports industry and eventually will kill your manufacturing. In this global trade environment where most of the developed country want to have lower currency to take advantages of market share and there is also a way to kill an economy, slowly bleeding to death is to push their currency up high. Thus, if the RBA decided to take proactive roll and join in the currency war that has been lead by US, England, Japan, Switzerland (peg against the Euro)...etc. they will start to take action now instead of playing passive fence sitter.
Impact News today:
03:45 am (NY) EUR – Italian Manufacture PMI
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing PMI
08:30 pm (NY) AUD – Trade Balance
Technical Analysis:
Our pending on USDCHF triggered. Chart below
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:253 | 0 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 253 | 0 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+7723.1 | 0
4 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Equity market plunged yesterday for fear of tension between North Korea and the US. The “big” chubby boy from North Korea is once again talking tough and according to reports from KCN, its army has the final approval for nuclear attack on the US. The US in turn has take a precaution measure to actually deployed the anti missile defence systems to Guam. Add on to the negativity we have San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President, John Williams saying that he is expecting the cutting back in asset buying program and potentially wind up altogether later in the year. That was enough to spook the market.
The market has been on fire that keeps heading higher and higher of late on volume-less, just wondering with this rhetoric threat from the chubby boy will do the trick to cool down the hype from the mums and dads investors since the negativities that came out of Europe has no significant impacts: we still have the Cyprus issues and the talk of the market is that Slovenia is next on the chopping block as well and, unemployment in the Euro zone has been much deteriorate from latest reports and yet, Italy is still without Government and potentially could go to the Poll again. All this negativities has been mostly ignored.
Today and tomorrow we are going get the whole lots of high impact news hitting the market with Friday where we will get the mother of all news for FX traders, the Non-Farm Payroll. Today we are going to have Official Bank Rate from Great Britain where leading economics expecting no change. Then the European Rate decision coming up next and with much deteriorate economic condition within the Euro Zone the ECB could lower rate to boost economy but at current the expectation is unchanged. We will also get a gleam into what the ECB President, Draghi has to say......oh yeah, we know:”....will do whatever it take..”.
All in all, we are seeing strong signs of market reversal over the coming days and over the next 2 weeks we might have erratic movements in the markets before the correction we have to have or at least a healthy pullback will eventuate.
Impact News today:
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Service PMI
07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate
07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rate
08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference
08:30 am (NY) USD - Unemployment Claims
10:30 am (NY) USD – Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Technical Analysis:
GBPNZD – base on Daily chart we are currently in the process of forming Bullish Divergence. We still of the opinion that NZD is over rated and a good correction is on the card. But that’s not to say that Mr Market Makers will not trying to take advantage of current market tension and doing erratic moves to clean out stops before correction take its course. Our Entries on the pair, although under the water but are still in our risk parameter. Depend on market conditions we might adjust our stop, profit targets as long as our total risk is within our parameter.
AUDUSD – After news of RBA to keep rate unchanged and with good retail sales yesterday the pair pushed higher during Asian session but gave back most of its gained during NY session. With the tension going on in Asia, Korea, Japan as well as the dropped in commodities the pair finds it hard to break 1.0500.
NZDUSD – Chart Below.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:261 | 4 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 210 | 0 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8569.3 | 0
05 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
What a yoyo day of trading yesterday with many majors going back and forth during the London and early New York sessions. Anyway, the BOE and the ECB had decided to left interest rate on hold and BOE also continue its QE program. On the other news we have Bank of Japan came out with statement of strongly committed and stand ready to assassin their YEN with unlimited QE until they get their inflation back to 2%. This immediately send the YEN into a sink hole, such an aggressive move by the BOJ could potentially has its ramification when wealthy Japanese realise that their dough is being depreciate in values as time goes by and this could prompt them to move their dough abroad.
In the US yesterday trading session we got the private ADP unemployment report reporting a jump in unemployment, this did not fare very well with many economics expectation of strong recovery in the US. As a result, the USD lost its shine. Tonight, we will have the Non-Farm payroll with many leading economics expectation of 198,000 jobs created in the month of March. If the numbers came in below 150,000 that’s not anywhere near market expectation we will see further retracement to the downside on the USD.
Impact News today:
03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Trade Balance; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) USD – Non-Farm Pay Roll; Trade Balance; Unemployment Rate
10:00 am (NY) CAD – PMI.
Technical Analysis:
GBPNZD – Base on Daily chart we are now having a double bottom with a false break to the downside and MACD giving us a big Divergence *as well as Stochastic sharply turned up above 20 suggest a strong retracement to the upside over the coming days.
AUDUSD – from our charts yesterday, our TP1 reached. We exited the trade and put on another pending Sell order which also triggered last night. It then also went our way and reached our TP1 again during Asian session today. We collected that as well due to we now have Divergence on H4 which suggest of potential retest of the resistance. On closer look we can see that the pair is forming a short term ascending triangle. Now, if the pair decided to breakdown from here we will go in on market *once the uptrend line of ascending triangle is violated and stop will be above the triangle (says, 1.0503).
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:261 | 8 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 210 | 7 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8569.3 | 846.5
08 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
What a dismal number from the Non-Farm Payroll last Friday. Only 88,000 jobs created last month as opposed to expectation of 198,000. This does not fare well for the USD at all but soon stabilised as tension building up in North and South Korea with reports of the North had loaded their missiles into the launch pads.
With the uncertainty in Korea we will see market jitter over the coming days and risk currencies will be under bearish pressure, especially AUD, as Asia is the key market for Australia. Earlier today we also has breaking news from South Korea that warn of possible fourth Nuclear Test from the North and the FX market opened with a gap down on the risk currencies.
Would the North be daring and dumb enough to fire the missile? On common sense and we have been used to the rhetoric of the North this could just be another bluff but hey, they are unpredictable and is a bunch of 1 Party dictatorship that will do exactly what their “Supreme” leader orders them to do and that make them hard to comprehend. So, the world just have to take precaution to stand ready for war against the fourth largest army in the world. Yes, they are the fourth largest army in the world but lucky enough they do not have friends (except China)and the firepower. So, if they decided to play game and press that “button” the Allies will probably dump every possible artilleries onto North Korea, especially onto the “chubby” boy hide out. If we have to say to Kim we would tell him: if you dare then you better duck and duck deep.
GBPNZD - after a false break to the downside last Wednesday, on Friday this pair gave us a bullish run to the upside. On daily chart there are still lots of momentum for this pair to push higher but on H4 we now have a hidden divergence and overbought. We will buy in on pullback and looking for the pair to retrace much higher to the upside.
USDCGD – Daily Chart below
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:261 | 8 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 210 | 7 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8569.3 | 846.5
09 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
This overheat market just refuse to lie down yet as it keeps trying to push higher and higher on limited volume. From our experiences this sort of behaviours always spell trouble and is an outset of a perfect storm to come. We are now approaching May and as the old phrase from many market participants use to say “Sell in May and Go Away”, we think this year will be of no different yet it could happens sooner than we think when we examines charts of many indexes we can see negative divergences are being created at many level of time frames. Take a look at the S&P: there are negative divergences on Daily, Weekly and even Monthly are being play out. This rally in the market is long overdue for a pullback but do not rule out further push higher overly extended and then comes the deeper the correction. Also, the US is now entering company reporting season and as we have seen over the last few months, on surface, the US has been making progressive recovery and many expectation of exceeding forecast. So, if companies meeting forecast or exceeding we will most likely see further push higher before correction leading into May but if earnings are bad, not meeting expectation or come with a dismal figure then correction, nervous investors that has been sitting on profits at beginning of the year will quickly cash in. Now when people are running away from the equities market they usually look for another vehicle to get on to put their money somewhere and that’s usually the bond market. And bond market of which country that they would likely park their dough?
Currently, we think that once correction starts, most risk currencies will head lower, particularly the AUD could head back to parity or a tad lower but then will recover strongly throughout the second half of the year due to higher yield with almost zero sovereignty risk and yet is one of a few developed nation that still enjoy the AAA rating from all 3 biggest rating agency. All that said, we will watch the AUD closely once correction is being content to buy into the AUD.
Impact News today:
03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing Production
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits
Technical Analysis:
GBPNZD – This pair does really test our patience. As we have many times saying that this pair is in the process of forming bottoms and we just have to be patience and that is why we are currently only playing with small lots size and the profits can be very rewarding. We believed NZD at current price level is way overrated and this is doing no favour to the bottom line of economy.
USDSGD – Yesterday we looked at this pair on Daily time frame, today we will look on a smaller timeframe. Chart below we can see that this pair is currently trading in a ascending triangle. On daily chart we have upside momentum. Although H4 we are having Bearish Divergence but H1 we got bullish Divergence formed and base on Daily chart this pair has been in a strong uptrend since December and so we are Long bias and look for it breaks out of the ascending triangle and resume the uptrend.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:261 | 8 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 210 | 7 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8569.3 | 846.5
11 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Just a short note for today.
As said the other day, this bull market just refuse to lie down as seen yesterday S&P has now entering the uncharged territory and people are all hype up. What we see in this current environment is that it’s unsafe to long stocks or risk currencies at the moment. The way this bull has run and over the last few days has all the ingredients of a perfect storm in the making, from experience prior to crash/correction taking place market always spike as though if you don’t join you miss the bus and then when then out of blue you unexpectedly catch the flu because of sudden crash. We just do not buy into this bull market just yet, not until we see a good sizable correction in the equity market.
The theme and safest bet currently is shorting the Yen pair, that is buying into Yen cross on any sizable pullback as the BOJ has pledge to assassinate its Yen with its printing machines being turn on full force and this can only further weakening the Yen as days go by. The AUD yesterday was not deter at all with the unexpected Trade Deficit number came out of China. It power on taking out 1.05 resistance level. Many leading economics even see that the AUD will stay above 1.00 as long as the US competing with Japan in printing and Aussie interest rate stay above 3%.
You can’t keeping hold back the chuckles or amaze at how Politicians are keeping blind eyes or are totally in denial. What Japan did to their Yen is truly engaging in what so call “Currency War” and yet there are Politician(s) still don’t think that the Japanese’s Government are aggressive in manipulating its currency. Take Wayne Swan, Aussie Treasurer, who thinks the Japanese turning on their printing machines and print trillions does not necessarily mean they are manipulating the Yen. Oh, my God.....speechless.
We are currently under the water with many of our holdings but still manageable within our risk parameter. We will not adding more trades unless it’s is prevailing and from what we see, anytime now within the next 2 weeks we will see a sharp cycle turn. Due to circumstances we are currently relocating our main office, so don’t be surprised if we miss our daily updates from time to time for the next 3 weeks. Rest assure we constantly monitor our trades.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:267 | 14 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 214 | 11 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8665.5 | 942.4
17 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
At the start of the week last Monday we have got one of the biggest day drop in the Equity market as commodities take a plunge, especially the heavy 1 day sell off that has not been witness for a very long time. The sell off was initiated by one of the Hedge Fund selling big on gold yet the weekend news from Cyprus decision to sell its gold reserve to pay down its debt put even more pressure on to gold. Gold was in a freefall on Monday until 1320 before finding initial support. Is it time to long Gold? We doubt it is the time just yet; remember Cyprus has not even start cashing in their Gold Reserve. Poor Cyprus, some dark knight was just one step ahead of them and if they are selling their reserve now they will not get as much as they would have hope for if they were sold last week. Bargain hunters might find it cheap at this prices to buy into gold but the reality is this not over just yet and currently 1200 price tag is on the lookout if the Cyprus Government decides to liquidated the shine metals for cash as they are now truly in need.
As for the market, last Monday we saw risk off day in the S&P and risk currencies being trade lower, noticeably were AUD,NZD, CAD..etc. Although yesterday we have a good rebound as bargain hunters coming in but this in no mean that the correction is over, what we are witnessing is just the blip, a warning of what’s to come if market is not as rosy as the picture being painted by Central Banks around the globe then nervous investors will not hesitate to take action as seen last Monday.
Since mid February we have many times emphasizes that we are in entering the jittery phase of the market and advice our members to enter position with only small lots size and leave rooms for stop loss being hunt or taken out as long as our risk stay within the risk parameter. We do not fear of holding negatives before market turn and for many of our members that has been with us for a while have all seen this happens before and most of the time we come out winners and even set new record pips gain for the month. This style of trading has once again demonstrated to many of you this week; last Friday we were in negative and we received many emails regarding the drawdown being 8-10%. Yes we know it’s not a nice feeling to have when looking at the account but let us assure you that in anyone trading careers, as long as DD is below 20% with steady equity growth month after month then they are doing great job. Now, at the beginning of this week DD has been reduce substantially, less than 1%, and even exiting a few trades with average positive gains for the month. So far we have gained 942 pips for the month and if we are going to have a risk off days leading into the weekend we might even see ourselves breaking our own records pips gain before month end.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:269 | 16 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 216 | 13 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8862.4 | 1139.3
19 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Not much news today on the currency market do all eyes will look forward to German BundaBank President Wiedmann speaks, what would be his tones, hawkish or dovish and that normally would give a short term direction for the Euro. With the last few reports we doubt if Weidmann in anyway providing a slice chance of hawkish view if not to say he would probably lean to dovish side or at best try to be neutral.
So far from the Equity market, the major indices like Dow and S&P has found support at 14500 and 1500 respectively. While gold and commodity are under pressure and China recovery is not that all rosy of late and reporting season in the US with a fair share of companies miss expectation, an indication of the US is still not out of the wood just yet. That pose a question as to has the market been overshoot itself in the last 3 months. We think it did overshoot and why not? When you have all these Central Banks printing money like no tomorrow that create greed as investor/trader runs for grabs and so the economy has actually blossom on Central Banks debts.
Anyway, the behaviour of the market this week, although is erratic but if you are in the market long enough to see this sort of prices reaction prior to a deep sell off will take place. If history or prices pattern behave accordingly as to what we have seen many times before. We will definitely see a deep sell over the next week or two but in this race of money printing of Central Banks around the world there is no certainly of the pullback that we need to have as they might decide to print even more, bigger amount of money per month just to avert the correction. In our view that would be a suicidal.
Impact News today:
07:30 am (NY) EUR – German Buba President Weidmann Speaks
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core CPI.
Technical Analysis:
Late NY session yesterday we decided to exit 3 positions on GBPNZD as we find it met Resistance so we expect the pair to retrace a bit before making another thrust upside. We exit 3 positions and has now add on another pending buy limit.
Our yesterday pending Sell Stop on EURGBP triggered and so we are now in a sell position, therefore we cancelled the other pending sell limit on this pair.
We also entered our Short position on EURUSD as base on Daily chart. Chart below.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:269 | 16 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 216 | 13 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+8862.4 | 1139.3
22 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
It’s going to be a relatively quiet this week on the news front. What traders/investors will be looking at are the companies reports that is going into full forces this week. So far only one fifth of companies in the S&P reported their quarterly earnings and only 43% so far beat the forecast, so it’s not at all rosy for the US economy as many have hope for which give an indication to investors that companies are actually struggling to meet the top line.
From seasonal perspective that often happens around this time of the year that market usually pullback and that’s where we have the market phrase of “Selling in May and go away”. We don’t think this year will be of any different, add on to that we are currently experience softness in the commodities front, especially Gold that has been out of favour of late. The market can be side ranging for a while before making a plunge as many of traders are looking for excuse, for signs of weakness to put out the bull.
Another caution we like to make to our members is not to fall in love with the yellow metal just yet. Yes, it looks very cheap now compare to 6 months ago but remember “things look cheap but it can be cheaper”. Yes, we have an initial reaction from the market to throw out the yellow metal upon announcement of Cyprus that intends to sell their Gold Reserves in order to pay down debts and stabilise the country financially in turmoil. Remember, they have not sell any yet, not that we know if they have or have not but we are sure if and when they do we will hear about it and since we hear nothing yet therefore it is ok to assume that they haven’t. So, any bounce on the shiny metal to a certain level is an opportunity for Cyprus to unload their Gold and that certainly will create an oversupply of Gold in the market and thus, lower prices on the Shiny metal is a certainty. From charting perspective we will look into buying gold only when 1150 – 1200 is being tested and hold. In the worst case scenario it could fall as low as 1000.00 which is the major Resistance level that has been broken back in October 2009 and that has not ever been challenge as support.
Impact News today:
10:00 am (NY) USD – Existing Home Sales
09:45 pm (NY) CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI.
Technical Analysis:
GBPNZD – We have many time saying that $NZD is overate and we still hold that view. Last week we collected 2 of our entries for profit and put on another Pending Buy limit. Our Pending Buy ordered has been triggered this early Asian trading session. Looking at H4 chart we can see that the pair is in the process of forming Inverted Head & Shoulders pattern. So, upon 1.8250 being clear and price closed above that level our target will be the inverse duplication of the inverted H&S which then bring us to about 1.8750 level. Chart below.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 04 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:271 | 18 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 218 | 15 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+9203.7 | 1480.6
23 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The most noticeable new that came out of Europe yesterday was the newly elected President Giorgio Napolitano of Italy and the Euro react favourably to the news but soon lost its ground as trader soon realised that the newly elected President still have a mountain to climb to sort out the country Financial and Political basket case but then at least we now have a President for Italy that’s alone has somehow removed the political uncertainty for Italy.
Today on the news front we are focusing on Manufacturing front of the 2 largest economy of Europe, France and Germany and many leading economics do not expect much have change. The retail sales of Canada is also expected to be unchanged while the US new home sales data will be closely watch as this is an indication of how well is the country on its recovery path.
Later in the afternoon of US session or Early tomorrow Asian session we will have the New Zealand Official Cash rate which is also expected to be no changed.
Impact News today:
03:00 am (NY) EUR – French Flash Manufacturing PMI
03:30 am (NY) EUR – German Flash Manufacturing PMI
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales
08:45 am (NY) CAD – BOC Governor Carney Speaks
09:00 am (NY) USD – New Home Sales
05:00pm((NY) NZD – Official Cash Rate; RBNZ Rate Statement
09:30pm(NY) AUD - CPI
Technical Analysis:
This morning we realised another 2 positions on GBPNZD and now put another pending buy limit order. The reason for exit was base on H4 and H1 charts which is extended so a minor pullback is a possibility. It might not pullback to the level that we have our pending buy order and just consolidate sideway to ease the momentum before making another thrust upward.
Currently we are only about 20 pips away from setting another record month of pips gain and our current holding positions is less than 1% drawdown, so it’s all good and since this is the last week of the month we will be selective and minimise our open positions.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 09 Months , 04 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:277 | 24 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 224 | 21 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+9545.0 | 1821.9
26 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The current market condition is just so annoying, the agitation of traders looking for market direction must have been frustrating especially over the last 10 trading days or so. Just like yesterday when we have Spain announcing its unemployment rate has raised to a record 27.2% which was just ignore by market participants and push the Euro up early in the day during Asian session. This was due to the immediate news of German Chancellor Merkel saying that raising interest rate by the ECB would be good for Germany. For whatever the reason that Merkel was base on we think she must probably had just smoking pot prior to coming out with such ludicrous statement. We have France’s unemployment also hitting fresh high and Spain at record high and crippling nations like Greece, Cyprus, Portugal, Ireland, Italy and now there even talk of Slovenia might just as well throws in the towel, moreover, German manufacturing has been sliding at an alarming rate and here we have Merkel saying raising interest rate is good for Germany....damn, can we have what she have had?
Anyway, during the London and NY open there were more speculation of Euro under downward pressure when Goldman Saches forecasted the ECB to cut rates by 25 basis point. Market then reacted to the news and sent Euro down over 50 pips immediately on the news. It seems that Euro is at the cross road on rate decisions so one minute we have a Pollie coming out saying rate cuts another minute we have another Pollie saying hand on, maybe rate rise would be of better choice. For Christ sake, make up your mind Pollies.
Over to Japan, we had CPI that once again fell 0.5%, this is the 5th straight month of falling CPI. So, maybe it’s too soon to know if their action by crank up the press is working or not but a month has pass and currently it’s not working. They are targeting 2% inflation so maybe they will have to crank up the press harder, printing more Yen to push spending – yeah folks spend your Yen now before it become dirt cheap.
Impact News today:
04:00 am (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
08:30 am (NY) USD – Advance GDB Price Index
Technical Analysis:
Before we go into our trades let us take a look at performance for this month as month end approaching. Since we went public back in July 2012, Nine months into the business we have so far achieved consistent pips gain on a monthly basis:
August’12 – 878 pips
September’12 – 1035 pips
October’12 – 1432 pips
November’12 – 938 pips
December’12 – minus 186 pips
January’13 – 1492 pips
February’12 – 1174 pips
March 2013 - 828 pips
April 2013 - ? (as of today stands at 1821 pips and just over 1% drawdown on)
So, for the last 9 months we only have 1 month of negative pips gain and as of today and for the last 9 months we have make a total of 9412 pips gain, about another 600 pips we will reach our 10,000 pips gain for the year. We think that we are doing reasonably ok and we are happy with that. Hope you all do too. Cheers.
Now back to the trade we took yesterday: AUDNZD – Yeah, we know, we probably hear some of you saying: NZD AGAIN? Yes, folk, NZD again. Well, we have the legendary George Soros shorting millions of dollars on the Yen months before it is corrected. He spot the Yen was overrated and do not mind of being contrarian to the majority by shorting the Yen early. Well, unlike the billionaire legendary George Soros but we do believe the NZD is also overate. The last 2 or 3 months the NZD was overpowering if not to say it was the best performance currency among the so call risk currencies. It’s certainly overvalue in a country with population of just over 4 million with major industry is Farming and Tourism. So, a small country with high currency and not much of heavy industries will soon find itself in trouble when their goods can no longer compete with other nations that have lower currency. In this current environment where the currency war is gathering speed, the best way to destroy an economy is to push its currency as high as you possibly can.....just look at Japan and South Korea. South Korea was enjoying their low WON for so long and so their manufacturing, the like of Hyundai, Samsung, LG....etc. were blossom on the cost of Japan high currency that hurt Sony, Hitachi and many well brand cars manufacturer.
Anyway, let get back to our technical on AUDNZD.
AUDNZD – Weekly
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 10 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:277 | 24 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 224 | 21 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+9545.0 | 1821.9
30 Apr 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The Equity market once again push higher, S&P yesterday challenge the high created early in the month. This bull just refuses to lay down although the general economic data do not back up for this bullish move. Investors just ignored all bad news and why is that? It got to come down to Central Banks, FED keeps cranking up the press to support the economy and so the economy just thriving on this Central Banks everlasting Christmas. We suppose investors and traders alike will just have to enjoy this bitter sweet candy handing out from Central Banks while it last because as soon there is sign or any hint of printers shutdown we then will quickly see the melt down.
Although we don’t have much of high impact news today but we do have a whole lots of news from Euro zone: German Retail Sales; Consumer Climate, unemployment Change; French Consumer Spending; Spanish Flash GDP; EURO CPI ; Unemployment rate. These data will give an indication of the health of the Euro Group economy.
Today is the last day of the month and this month we set a new record on our monthly pips gains at 1821 and hold a numbers of open positions with 2% drawdown at time of writing.
Yesterday our pending Sell order for EURAUD triggered so let have a look at the technical for this particular pair today.
Base on Daily – this pair was in a major downtrend since early February until early this month it found support and retraced to the upside. Noticed last week we have 5 days that priced tried to go above the 50% Fib level and fail to close above that level each time. Now on the 23 April we had a false breakout that closed with a big juicy red candle below 50% Fib level with Momentum being overbought as well as MACD given us a hidden Divergence suggesting of potential resume of the downtrend and so we set our pending Sell Limited. Let’s go to H4 chart.
EURAUD – Daily
EURAUD – H4.
Prices broke the uptrend line. In the immediate scenario it found support at 1.2620. If prices close below this level on H4 it would put further pressure for the pair to head south with TP1 @ 1.2530 and TP2 @ 1.2375. Chart below
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 10 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month:277 | 0 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 224 | 0 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month:+9545.0 | 0
01 May 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
It’s kind of mind boggling about yesterday prices movement on the FX market. We had bad data from Euro and good data from the US and yet, the USD went south while Euro went north. We were scratching our heads and wondering has the world been turning upside down on its head?
First, data from Euro zone were disappointing, from consumer confidence fell, Italy unemployment fell, even though, the Euro zone unemployment rate being stead it still points toward nothing has been done to improve the unemployment. Moreover, we also have the inflation reading of 1.2% for April. Now most leading economist forecast a reading of 1.6% and the ECB has its target of 2% and so with the weak inflation number would have point out the more possibility of a rate cut on Thursday. Anyway, traders/investors ignored on that and push the euro higher, is this a fake bull, a bull trap before disaster happens or traders/investor just give a hoot about rate cut, as they see a 0.25% rate cut just do no good for the Euro ailing economy anyway. If that is people perception then the ECB has to come out with a bazooka tomorrow to surprise everyone and keep the lower Euro to gain market competitiveness to support its declining manufacturers.
Secondly, traders/investors just banking on the FED will keep cranking up that printing machines of $85 billion every month and no sign that it’s going to end any time soon and so they just ride the wave of cash splashing by the FED to cushion the market.
Thirdly, could this be the fake move by market makers to trap people in and to clean out scalpers with tight stops? Ah well, that’s what we can only come up after scratching our head, pulling our hair just to make sure we are not standing on our head.
Another Pending Sell Limit Order triggered last night. This order we had put in about 10 days ago and now we are live with NZDUSD Short. Base on Daily chart we can see after a heavy sell down back on the 15 April this pair has move in range and yesterday gave a solid breakout touching our Sell Limit order. Although the momentum is overbought this still could push higher to challenge previous peak or even push over that to create false break and a Negative Divergence before a big run down taking place and that’s the reason we entered with a small lot size and wide stop to avoid being stop hunt by MM.
NZDUSD – Daily
NZDUSD – H4. Let look at H4, we can see that we already have a negative Divergence and Momentum overbought and prices at currently stands at around 72% FIB level retracement. Usually on this level of retracement is what we call the Terminal Zone but from the Daily Chart this could still push higher to run stops before making a serious down move.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
