Number of Trades: 15 Winning Trades: 8 Losing Trades: 7 Total Pip Gain/Loss: -243.1
17 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
IF anyone follow the equities market and the FX market last Friday would have notice of big inverse correlation between the two. We have the S&P closing down or relatively unchanged while on the FX market we had a risk on day. The push higher in the FX market on the risk currencies took places just in the last hours of trading of the week. Call me sceptical if you wish but the way I see it is that this market has now being manipulated by the big boys, market makers and surely it was the best time to do it when there is less participants in the market and there is no high impact news, market was thin and so a few millions could certainly move this market and so the last few hours on Friday we saw a spike on the risk currencies that could concluded as “Stop” hunt.
Over the weekend we now have a reinstated of former Prime Minister of Japan, Shinzo Abe, who has been Prime Minister of Japan in 2006 and since then, Japan has had 6 Prime Minister changing hand. Could Abe be once again the saviour of the Japanese economics? He has been calling for further QE to weaken the Yen to boost the Japanese Export Industry. This theory of QE can be a double edge swords that could actually created a catastrophe to the Japan’s economy, it could potentially first creating a “bubble” in the Japan’s economy and as we all know: Bubbles do eventually Burst. And then they will go further into debts with the so call “unlimited” QE and then we probably will the Japan stand on the edge, a tipping point, a cliff and ultimately will lead to currency crisis. We just hope that will not happen for the sake of the Japanese people as they have already endure so much from the havoc of mother nature’s.
Anyway, with the news of Abe wining the Prime Ministership the market took the joys what has been expected to make a big gap up on the Yen pairs and then gradually being sold down, as I type it has came off from the open. So true for the fact of: Buy the Rumour and Sell the Fact.
Impact News today:
09:30 am (NY) EUR – President Draghi Speaks
07:00 pm (NY) NZD – Business Confidence
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes.
Trading Positions:
With the one of the most anticipated news, which is also as expected, regarding the election of Japan over the weekend out of the way. We have an overly excited market that further weaken the Yen as soon as market open. The run up of the Yen since early last month has been much factor in the prices and today Gap up, as we see it, is the exhaustion Gap. Attaches are charts of 3 different time frames, Weekly, Daily and H4. All, showing prices has been way extended and due for pullback.
GBPJPY – Weekly
GBPJPY – Daily
GBPJPY – H4
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 15 Winning Trades: 8 Losing Trades: 7 Total Pip Gain/Loss: -243.1
19 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Just a quick update. We are only 6 days away from Xmas, so this is going to be our last post for the year.
There isn’t much change in the fundamental of the global economy except for the optimism on the Fiscal Cliff which We are getting so bore of talking about.
It seems that bull market is everywhere and they did stack up a Santa Rally really well. We just like to caution traders not to be suck in with this bull hypes as what we can see is the rude awakening just lurking around waiting for opportunity to smash this market lower.
Finally I just want to say: Trade conservative through this period with small lot size and use wider stop as big swing is imminent through this festive season.
Merry Xmas and Happy New Year to all.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 11 Winning Trades: 9 Losing Trades: 2 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +641.5
9 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Welcome back folks, We trusted that you all have had a wonderful festive season and has been freshen up for the year 2013.
First let us put up a quick summary of what we have achieved so far in 2012. Although we only start our service provider back in July 2012 and the end result for the last 6 months was very encouraging. In fact, we are very proud to have actually achieve an average of 800 pips per month with highest monthly gained so far stands at 1432 pips and 1 losing month of -186 pips. That said, we have achieved an average strike rate of 80% with a Draw Down have never exceed 3%. That Statistic is remarkable in anyone book don’t you think? The challenge ahead going into 2013 is to maintain that level of performance.
Going into 2013, we will do our best to maintain this wonderful performance and further strengthening our services to our members. We are currently working on trade manager software to personally manage client trading account with the same risk parameter as per our live trading account and our reward is purely base on our performance. This Performance fees is base on, says, 2% per month and that is if we don’t make 2% per month on our client account then we will get nothing and once we meet our target then anything above 2% is ours – that’s fair enough? Also, for your peace of mind you will get exactly the same trade as per our personal trading account with same risk parameter and so, if a trade does not go our way then remember we are the first to lose and believe me, we are professional traders, we trade for living. Many of our Certified live trading accounts can be view on our website or onmyfxbook.com or you can contact our services desk for more details.
Now let us run through of what to expect for 2013. We expect volatility in the market will rise in the first half of 2013. You see, many major issues in many countries has not been sorted out comprehensively: Greece debt is still at the unsustainable level while Europe is still struggling to come out of recession and the Fiscal Cliff deal reached early in the year is like a patch of band-aid; and unemployment around the globe is still a major issue with Greece unemployment currently at 26% and Spain isn’t far from it with 25% unemployment rate and from yesterday news release, the unemployment rate within the Euro zone stands at 11.8%.
From last November we have start hearing of Currency War, a race to debase one own currency just to give a kick to one own county economy. We have seen the US keeps its printing machines running at a dizzy pace, with $85 billion of ammunition pumping into this so called Currency War. While in Japan, with the reinstated of former 2006 Prime Minister Abe, who has been vocal about his intention to actually assassinate the Yen and thus value of the Yen has dropped significantly over the past 2 months. While in the Euro Zone, they have never launch an official QE, not yet anyway, and seems as though they have lost in the Currency War up to date but last month the European Union President, Draghi, did mention of his intention to push for lower interest rate to boost the economy and join in this so called Currency War. Thus, a cut in interest rate might soon happens.
In Australia and New Zealand alike, with the high Aussies and Kiwi are not at all rosy to their economies and present a big headache to the RBA and RBNZ. In Australia, with the mining sector is at the tip of the hill while businesses outside the mining sectors is struggling we might see the Australian heading into a full blow out recession over the coming years if the pullback in the mining sector gather speeds and higher Aussies dollars will certainly killing off many Australian exporters. Such is an awful way to kill an economy, don’t you think? Now a day if you want to kill an economy, all you have to do is to push their currency up so high that will eventually hurt their export industry.
Ok, That’s enough for our very 1st post of the year and we once again wish everyone a Prosperous year and we believe with all the uncertainties for 2013 which in turn create high volatilities is the year to be a Currency Trader.
Cheers and Pips to all.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 11 Winning Trades: 9 Losing Trades: 2 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +641.5
10 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The last few days markets, particularly the equity markets, are just sitting on edge, setting up as though it’s going to break to the upside but with lack of economic references traders and investors alike are trading very cautious. This can also be seen with most of the major currencies. They are trading in a very small range bound with downward pressure on the Pound and the Euro but have held up reasonably well.
The one thing we want to bring to your attention is not to be suck in into the fake rally, wait for confirmation. This sort of market condition and the set up seems as though the bulls are ready to roam and how many times in history that has turn out to be a disaster.
We all know there are investors sitting on the sidelines waiting for opportunity to get into the market and then just as soon as fresh money entering the market, more often than not, turn out to be the losing money. Just remember, what seems to be obvious isn’t always the way it will be.
Earlier in the Asian session we have got report on China Trade Balance which came out much better than expected and the risk currencies, particularly AUD switch on the bullish mode but still within tight range. Now with China good data hitting the market as well as other nation around the globes this could provide a hint that the RBA might just as well keep Rate on hold in early February and if Rate is to be on hold then it would not come as a surprise to see the AUDUSD ballooning to 1.06; 1.08 or even retest of the high created back in July 2011 at 1.1080. and believe it or not, that will create a big headache for the RBA if the AUD rise to the level back in July 2011. That would be a bitter sweet way of killing an economy in the midst of currency war.
Impact News today:
07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate
07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rate
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits
08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
06:50 pm (NY) JPY – Current Account
08:30 pm (NY) CNY – CPI.
Trading Positions:
EURGBP – H4
EURGBP – H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 14 Winning Trades: 10 Losing Trades: 4 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +487.8
11 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Such a volatility for currency market during the European session, especially after the announcement of rate on hold and add on to the optimism during ECB President Draghi speeches. Although nothing that he said is new to the market and the only thing that seems to be so important for optimistic traders was the President’s rosy view of the market later in the year. That’s being said, we just wonder would that be enough for traders to actually banking on his words?
We do think that the markets especially the Euro was overshoot itself yesterday. The President did say of recovery But that is later in the year, not now, not in this first quarter nor even in the 2nd quarter. If we look at the fundamental of the European market, there is a thing that has change, the unemployment figures within the euro zone has not improve one bit. The latest Greece unemployment rate is still at 25% and 50% for young people, same for Spain which also recorded unemployment rate of 25%.
Basically, we think the Euro dollar has been overreacted and traders exuberance is well and truly exaggerated. Having saying that we don’t mean to say that the Euro cannot go any higher and yes, it can still shoot up to 1.33/34 or even 1.35 just to clean out all the remaining shorts before heading lower for a retest of 1.27ish and could even head lower toward 1.20 if Greece issue popping out of the radar.
Impact News today:
03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing Production
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Trade Balance
Trading Positions:
As mentioned above, we have the Euro dollars was under the rocket which we somehow stand in the way in the EURJPY and EURGBP pairs and coped the loss as prices overshoot and defy the bearish pressure. Well, that’s part of trading and one just have to learn to take losses along the way. We still hold the view that this pair is way overbought. It has ran for over 2400 (weekly chart) since July 2012 without any significant pullback. Yes, we are acknowledging that there is a generation shift in the Yen but in the short to medium term these Yen pair appear to be way overbought.
We currently hold GBPNZD (1 entry) @ 1.9035. We exited the early entry for 20 pips profit and put in a pending buy order at 1.9108 and early in the Asian session the prices did actually retrace to as low as 1.9103 but due to the spread were high early in the Asian session our account with AxiTrader did not trigger. If any of you out there have entered at 1.9108 then you are well truly in profit now.
Below is the chart of USDCHF which we entered during the European session yesterday: We entered on Retest of breakout level back in early January, unfortunately, prices went through the support during president Draghi speeches. Please notice from the chart below I have amended stop lost 20 pips below previous low created on 02 January 2013. On wave count on H4, we are looking for resumption of short term uptrend and creating a wave 3 up to at least retest of previous high.
USDCHF – H4
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 15 Winning Trades: 11 Losing Trades: 4 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +681.1
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +198.1
14 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
There isn’t much to add from the past trading week except for what we all knew about of the so call relief rally on risk assets after the Fiscal Cliff deal. Add on to the relief rally we have the bullish view came out of Euro Zone via President Draghi. Personally, we think they have actually underestimate the Euro Risk Crisis. Level head thinking we can see that with the US, they have big debt issues, however, it does not present a larger threat like the Euro Zone where insolvency and break up are the real possibility, they remain far from the light at the end of the tunnel. With current bullish sentiments It seems the Euro still have further to go, possibly toward 1.35 – 1.37 but in our view any push higher from this level (1.34) is a dangerous play for Long play. Remember, Sentiments as often than not always strike back.
Impact News today:
04:00 pm (NY) USD – FED Chairman Bernanke Speaks.
Trading Positions:
The All the Yen cross has been in the bull mode over the last 6 months without a stop for breather – 6 bullish monthly candle is just amazing. We don’t deny there is a generation shift in the Yen but the bullish run in a short period of time. What makes the EURJPY standout from other Yen pairs was the fact that we have short term bullish sentiment on the Euro couple that with bearish sentiment of the Yen. In our view this pair will be corrected over the coming days before the next leg up. Below we the weekly chart of EURJPY. We are trading this with the investor style where we will play with small lot sizes and wider stop.
EURJPY – Weekly
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 23 Winning Trades: 18 Losing Trades: 5 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,194.1
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +454.9
16 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
There isn’t much news early in the week this week beside of what we already aware of. What interesting on the fundamental ground is that the US is facing with a probable of defaulting its debt repayment if the debt ceiling isn’t raise over the coming 4 weeks or so as Geithner had advise the President Obama that they are running on empty tank and possibly will stop dead in the middle of February if the issue of raising debt ceiling is not resolved. On the other side of politics, the Republicans are playing hard head with many of majority of Republicans publicly saying that they will let the country go into default if the Democrats not agreeing to cut Government spending. Oh well, market storm ahead folks.
Also, The other day we have ECB President Draghi projecting an upbeat tone on the Euro Zone and that send the Euro roaring to the upside – Fact is, we don’t know what he has for breakfast that day to actually believing that the Euro will soon see light at end of tunnel. Anyway, Yesterday we have the European Union President Juncker came out saying that EURO exchange rate is dangerously high – which in our view is true to the core – what is best for the Euro is to have a lower Euro so that they can attract investors which in turn will give their ailing economy a boost. And with that statement of President Juncker immediately send the Euro lower. Oh well, Draghi (Druggy) was probably on drug and feeling high and therefore higher Euro while Juncker (Junky) love to spend every cents and therefore sending Euro to junk. Joking.
Trading Positions:
We are now in mid month of January and so far most of our trades turn fruitful, with another 2 weeks to go our aim is to this as a record month in pips gain. Our record currently stands at 1400 pips for the month of October and we are currently only another 200 pips short to take out that record.
Below are the charts of EURJPY on Daily, H4 and H1. You can also view the Weekly chart that we posted last Monday.
EURJPY – Daily.
EURJPY – H4
EURJPY – H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 25 Winning Trades: 20 Losing Trades: 5 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,306.5
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +112.4
17 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
There wasn’t much movement yesterday in the FX market, most of the majors are trading in range as there were lack of news from Europe as well as US.
Today let take a look at what we call Commodity currency, AUD, and the health of the Australian economy that in our view is slowly in dire and thus a possible of Interest Rate cut coming our way in early February.
The last 2 weeks of news coming out of Australia isn’t at all rosy and early in the Asian session today the Employment rate was down, much worse than expected and that was evident on Chart as prices being knocked down about 50 pips as soon as news hit the market. Add on to that, a major Manufacture and construction company, Boral came out announcing of shredding 700 jobs as well as closing most of its plants in Sydney. Furthermore, the Retails and Manufacturing Association President came out saying: 2013 could be the year to make or break of the Australian Manufacture in Australia as higher AUD put lots of pressure on competitiveness of Australians goods. These news surely will wake up the Aussie politicians, especially, the Treasurer Wayne Swan who we think still have his head in the sand or stuck between his buttock.
If we look at the AUDUSD chart, over the past few sessions it has been trading in tight range, in short term we do not see it will change direction substantially but over the coming week, on the 23rd January when the Inflation number coming out we probably will see the big smart money start to pouring in. In our current view it’s going to head south.
Impact News today:
08:30 am (NY) USD – Building Permits; Unemployment Claims
10:00 am (NY) USD – Philly Fed Manufacturing Index
04:45 pm (NY) NZD – CPI
09:00 pm (NY) CNY - GDP
Trading Positions:
We have amended our pending order on EURJPY. We move it to Pending sell @ 119.16 instead of 118.35 as We want to be in position with the optimum probability since the pair is still in a strong trend and what we are looking for is the short term correction. So what we are watching is for Price to retraced and retest of the short term uptrend line and if we draw a short term downtrend line on H4, it happens that our current pending sell order is at about the intersection of 2 trend lines. Yes, Prices could even push higher to challenge the last high or even go a bit higher to actually created Negative Divergences before heading for a deeper correction.
Also, in so far over the last 2 weeks with handsome profits we just have to be selective with our trades and hold on to our wins as best as we can and therefore being conservative and selective on our orders is prudent. See chart below.
EURJPY – H4.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 25 Winning Trades: 20 Losing Trades: 5 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,306.5
18 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The Bullish and upbeat market in the first month of the year is astonishing. The rise of the S&P yesterday has put on a new high that has not been seen in the last 5 years. The Bull surely has come roaring in folks. People are now talking about stocks, investing and many major outlets, medias are painting a very rosy pictures for 2013. You know what? That’s the first to get very worry about your investment. Remember, the medias are just reporting the views of these so call “guru” that belongs to the big institutions and these big players are often than not always have their hidden agendas.
Don’t get us wrong, we are not saying that the market is going to collapse overnight, not yet anyway. The way we see it is over the next 3 to 4 months many investors will be caught naked with a nasty surprise. Yes, maybe we are being too sceptical but we game enough to make that bold call . Through our experiences of many years in the markets we have seen this similarity of behaviour before so we just have to be cautious and trade wisely. Currently, we are at the turn at the market where majority of people has been holding tight to their wallets over the year and now seeing the sign of optimism many people would open their wallet to have a punt in the markets. Being saying that we noticed the bull or at least a mini bull is stepping up for a fight and no, we do not know or can tell you the exact date as when the bear will come out to wrestle this mini bull. So, just don’t go and short the market or banking on the rise of the USD as often majorities would seek for safe haven currency in time of turmoil. Remember this: Markets sometimes, behave much more irrational than your deep pocket can bear.
Yesterday, after the Japan’s economy minister came out making a statements that the Yen is still under correcting from being extremely overvalue for some years and that the priority of the current Japanese Government is to make an end to Strong Yen and deflation as its top priority. This has bolster the Yen once again and EURJPY has now cracked the 120.00 barrier; Bugger that. Anyway, we have been caught with our pending sell order that took us in yesterday and since next Tuesday the BOJ meeting and work on their 101 trillion Yen asset purchase programs and if the market smell and sign of the go ahead they will send the pair skyrocketing to 138.00, back to the high of 2008, 2019,2010.
So, since we have been caught short what we are going to do now is to scale down our stop and accepting the loss and will see what happens next week.
Impact News today:
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Retail Sales
09:55 am (NY) USD – Consumer sentiment.
Trading Positions:
Ok, As said above you will see from the chart I will use H1 to scale down our stop as this trade is now in our view does not given us a high probability so we will scale down our stop using the High of H1 and as long as lower high is formed we will keep lowering our stop until taken out and accept the loss on this trade.
EURJPY – H1.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 27 Winning Trades: 21 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,203.8
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +9.7
21 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
There isn’t much of impact news for today due to the Martin Luther King Jr. Public holiday in the US there do not expect much of prices movement throughout the NY trading session. Market might look forward to other leads from the Euro zone and listen out for any nasty surprise comes out of the Euro Group Meeting today.
The news that will probably attract lots of attention will be tomorrow Asian trading session during/after the meeting of the BOJ with the Monetary Policy Statement and the Overnight Call Rate and the Press Conference regarding their forward steps of QE for which the Japan Government has pledge to weaken the Yen and raise inflation in order to boost Japan economy. So, expect wide swing on the Yen pairs tomorrow – it could go either way.
Now, let talk about the Euro for a minute. Personally we do think the Euro is currently being over-value and as we mentioned last week on the 16 January, that for the European economy to actually picking up and attracting outside investors and for global competition on goods exporting the Euro has to be lower to actually kick start its economy and we can comfortable says that deep down Germany would not like to see high Euro because that would certainly dent its global goods competitions. So, in saying that we would not look to go long the Euro at current prices and will only look for short opportunity on any push higher toward 1.35. As far as we can see, around the area of 1.334 to 1.37 or even 1.38 would be the Terminal Zone for the Euro. So our strategy is to accumulate shorts positions on the Euro with small lots sizes and wide stop but stay within our Risk Parameter in case Shit hit Fans with news like: Greece no longer need Bailout Funds (which is unlikely) or Spain just dig up a mountain of Gold. For whatever the reason, we just have to prepare ourselves for the worst case scenario and make sure not to let a bad trade clean out our Trading account.
Ok, over to the US, as we get closer to the end of January and going into February, the debate between Republican and Democrats will start to hit up once again regarding the raise of the Debt Ceiling so that Government can pay bills. Tim Geithner two weeks ago advised President Obama that Government coffer will run empty by mid February if the debt ceiling isn’t raise. Yet on the other side we have the Republican playing hard ball and even some of them voicing out that if the President not willing to cut them some slacks they will rather see the country going into default. Well, we have seen the American Pollies at work before....they will keep kicking the can down the road to a point they can kick no further before any decision would be reach. So looking forward to the next 3 to 4 weeks we would have plenty of volatilities in the markets folks.
Impact News today:
All Day – EUR - Euro group Meeting
Trading Positions:
Let runs a recap on EURJPY for which we entered last Thursday and the trade went against us, technically and also came fundamentally, as Japan minister keep coming out reiterated that they are serious about devalue the Yen and with BOJ meeting schedule to meeting on Monday Night (NY session) we do not feel comfortable to hold on to the trade and so what we did as explained from previous update. We scale down our stops and from 157 pips in negative we have manage to get out with only about -40 pips. Anyway, that trade if we hold on it could turn out a winner but we rather exit the trade with small loss than stay in a trade that we do not feel comfortable with. Part of trading is to follow your instinct even if it turn out to be wrong but rest assure, you will sleep better.
We are currently in 3 trades: Shorts EURUSD, EURGBP and Long GBPNZD.
Below are charts of EURGBP that we entered on being extreme on Daily and overbought on H4, plus Negative Divergence on H4.
EURGBP – Daily
EURGBP – H4
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 28 Winning Trades: 22 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,221.2
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +17.4
22 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Well there wasn’t much news yesterday to mention about and so most of the major currencies are ranging except for the Pound which face a downward pressure and fell , currently, only about 80 pips await from a stiff support. The falls has been excessive and oversold, at least in the short space of time. We think the pair is showing sign of bottoming out and ready for a retrace to the upside and then resuming its downtrend, at least, retesting the support (1.5750 there about) for confirmation of the Support. Notes: Since we had a breakout to the upside of 1.5750 level back in August 2012. That level since then has never been tested and so this time round this could be its first test.
On the fundamental fronts, with the heavy snows in the UK, many of the analysts, medias, suggesting this dampen weather could put the UK into a so called Triple – Dip Recession and so maybe that has actually put further pressure on the Pound. In Japan, the BOJ continuing its 2 days meeting and so the news could be at any moment. If the news is not what the market expected we probably see the start of the correction on the Yen. Look out folks.
Impact News today:
05:00 am (NY) EUR – German Economic Sentiment
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales
10:00 am (NY) USD – Existing Home Sales
01:00 pm (NY) EUR – ECB President Speaks
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – CPI.
Trading Positions:
Yesterday we exited our short position on EURGBP due to momentum change in H1. We decided to exit the trade for a tiny profit, we are now putting on another pending sell order using chart analysis of H4 and H1. Below are the charts of H4 and H1.
EURGBP - H4
EURGBP – H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 27 Winning Trades: 21 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,267.7
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +46.5
23 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Ok, the so called Currency War has now started yesterday after the BOJ announcing of its determination to follow the US and devalue the Yen by Unlimited QE. So, basically we now have the US and Japan will go into full forces of printing ($) their way out of trouble. The winner will be the one that can lower its currency the quickest, just a shame, that many of the European countries that are financially troubled were unable to join in the race.
The announcement of an open-end QE from the BOJ yesterday gave a kick on knee jerk reaction as we see the Yen initially dropped but then recovered and actually gained strength throughout trading day. Well, the open-end QE will only kick start in January 2014 after the current QE in place lapse and so after the knee jerk reaction many of the Yen cross lost ground – so true for “Buy Rumour and Sell on Fact”.
Other new that were driving the market yesterday was also the Stronger than expected German Sentiment Survey which saw the reading jumped to 31.5 from 6.9 with expectation of only 12.00. But this was only survey, traders will look forward to coming Thursday for German Manufacturing PMI to confirm the Bullish Sentiment actually has any ground.
The Australian CPI new that release in the early Asian session today was lower than expected and the Aussie Treasurer Wayne Swan were quickly jumped on the new saying that, with the contained inflation has now given RBA room to cut interest rate on their first meeting of the year in February. The release of CPI and words from Wayne has increase the probability of further interest rate cut and we quick see the AUDUSD dropped 35 odd pips. Also, as China is Australian biggest trading partner, and tomorrow with China HSBC Manufacturing PMI to be released and if it show any sign of weakness in the data this will also add weight to the AUD and further strengthen the chance that RBA will cut rate in February.
We are now holding 4 pairs: Short EURUSD; EURGBP; AUDUSD and Long GBPNZD.
EURUSD - as for this pair What I am looking for is Wave 5 down on Weekly, on weekly it’s starting to show Prices Momentum Divergence and is trading at critical resistance zone. On Daily, we already have Continuous Negative Divergence and on Fundamental front it isn’t prudent for the Euro economy to have higher Euro and therefore We only look for shorts on Euro.
AUDUSD - level 1.0580 had been a stiff resistance for this pair which has been tested 5 times on H4 and with the bearish pressure as we approach February we probably will see this pair to
Pullback to 1.0350 support. As long as Resistance 1.0630 intact we only look for short on this pair.
GBPNZD – This pair is being oversold and is trading close to all time low Major Support and now in the process of forming the base. We will look for retrace to the upside with first target 1.9000
EURGBP – As from previous 2 updates we had been in and out of this trade twice base on H4 and H1. Yesterday we exit the trade and put on another pending sell limit which triggered our
Entry during Draghi’s speaks. So, we are now in this trade again for the 3rd time. Chart below.
EURGBP – H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
EURJPY forecast:
The EURJPY pair seems very bullish and the technical indicators also provide buy signals. a sell on the level of 119.60 is recommended with the 1st objective(Take profit) at 119.00 and then at 118.80.
Number of Trades: 27 Winning Trades: 21 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,267.7
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +46.5
23 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Ok, the so called Currency War has now started yesterday after the BOJ announcing of its determination to follow the US and devalue the Yen by Unlimited QE. So, basically we now have the US and Japan will go into full forces of printing ($) their way out of trouble. The winner will be the one that can lower its currency the quickest, just a shame, that many of the European countries that are financially troubled were unable to join in the race.
The announcement of an open-end QE from the BOJ yesterday gave a kick on knee jerk reaction as we see the Yen initially dropped but then recovered and actually gained strength throughout trading day. Well, the open-end QE will only kick start in January 2014 after the current QE in place lapse and so after the knee jerk reaction many of the Yen cross lost ground – so true for “Buy Rumour and Sell on Fact”.
Other new that were driving the market yesterday was also the Stronger than expected German Sentiment Survey which saw the reading jumped to 31.5 from 6.9 with expectation of only 12.00. But this was only survey, traders will look forward to coming Thursday for German Manufacturing PMI to confirm the Bullish Sentiment actually has any ground.
The Australian CPI new that release in the early Asian session today was lower than expected and the Aussie Treasurer Wayne Swan were quickly jumped on the new saying that, with the contained inflation has now given RBA room to cut interest rate on their first meeting of the year in February. The release of CPI and words from Wayne has increase the probability of further interest rate cut and we quick see the AUDUSD dropped 35 odd pips. Also, as China is Australian biggest trading partner, and tomorrow with China HSBC Manufacturing PMI to be released and if it show any sign of weakness in the data this will also add weight to the AUD and further strengthen the chance that RBA will cut rate in February.
We are now holding 4 pairs: Short EURUSD; EURGBP; AUDUSD and Long GBPNZD.
EURUSD - as for this pair What I am looking for is Wave 5 down on Weekly, on weekly it’s starting to show Prices Momentum Divergence and is trading at critical resistance zone. On Daily, we already have Continuous Negative Divergence and on Fundamental front it isn’t prudent for the Euro economy to have higher Euro and therefore We only look for shorts on Euro.
AUDUSD - level 1.0580 had been a stiff resistance for this pair which has been tested 5 times on H4 and with the bearish pressure as we approach February we probably will see this pair to
Pullback to 1.0350 support. As long as Resistance 1.0630 intact we only look for short on this pair.
GBPNZD – This pair is being oversold and is trading close to all time low Major Support and now in the process of forming the base. We will look for retrace to the upside with first target 1.9000
EURGBP – As from previous 2 updates we had been in and out of this trade twice base on H4 and H1. Yesterday we exit the trade and put on another pending sell limit which triggered our
Entry during Draghi’s speaks. So, we are now in this trade again for the 3rd time. Chart below.
EURGBP – H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 28 Winning Trades: 22 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,321.3
Yesterday:
Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +53.6
25 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Like we said from yesterday update, what we are seeing now is the inverse relation between the Equities market and the Risk currencies. Usually when we have run on the Equities market the risk currency: AUD, NZD, EURO...etc will also push higher. This wasn’t the case of late and yesterday the Dow Jones crossing the 15000 mark for the first time since 2007 and yet the risk currencies are still trading in tight range.
What we observe from the technical perspective is that the Equities market are overbought and hype and that will soon be corrected and when we have the Equities market corrected we will probably see further bearish momentum on many of the risk currencies. From recent data release they are much seems rosy globally with China manufacturing is expanding at the fastest rate in 24 months and from the German Sentiment and Manufacturing PMI also improves and Yet the AUD which usually link to China activities wasn’t in a bullish mode at all, as a matter of fact, after a spike up of around 45 pips it soon gave it all back plus interest.
Interesting time ahead as February approach and if the market decided to have a little correction now then the risk currencies will have further to fall and if you are playing with the crosses instead of the majors then go Long with the country that has bigger economy.
In regarding to the Euro, once again 1.3400 proves to be a tough resistance yet, it won’t be a surprise see it pushes higher taking out all the Shorts at current level before heading back down, so, a break of 1.3400 level could sprint to another 50 to 100 pips to clear out all stops of people that went shorts, so, be careful not to fall victims of stop hunts by the big boys.
Impact News today:
04:00 am (NY) EUR – German Business Climate
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Prelim GDP
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core CPI
10:00 am (NY) USD – New Home Sales.
Trading Positions:
We exited 1 of our last entry GBPNZD for a small gains and put another 2 pending Buy orders. Base on H4 we are currently being overbought and a pullback to either retest previous low or even push a bit lower and create a bullish Divergence on H4 before making a retrace to the upside. See chart below.
GBPNZD – H4
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 29 Winning Trades: 23 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,277.6
29 Jan 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Last week we have seen the market was in a jovial moods with many of the indexes pushing up and mainstream media also talking up the market as well. Should this be the warning sign of what to come over the coming weeks? Maybe over the next 2 to 5 weeks we think a good correction in the equities market will eventuate.
Regarding to the currency market , traders was propping up the Euro to the level that we think will dampen the economic recovery for the Euro Zone. Let give this a bit of thought: here we have Central Banks around the globe is trying to devaluate their currencies to be able to compete globally and with the higher Euro how can countries within the Euro Groups compete? What can countries like Greece, Portugal, Ireland export beside, perhaps, maybe cheap labours ? and surely Germany would not like to see their manufacturing being taken over by cheap Japanese, Chinese goods. Yes, we agreed that the sentiment regarding Europe seems as though it has been stabilize but then the outlook for near to medium term isn’t at all positive: there is a debt crisis with countries within the Euro Group that has not been probably addressed and there isn’t any clear direction for economy growths for the group. Although, the ECB did said that it expect the Euro Zone to return to growth later in the year but did not elaborate as to how that can be done and yet, the German Economy Ministry last week came out and lower its 2013. So, there you have it, the ECB expect growth and yet the strongest economy of the Euro Zone isn’t carry the same view.
Anyway, over the next few weeks we will have the issue of Debt Ceiling in the US coming back to rattle the market and there is Italy Election by end of February and there is a hidden catalyst is waiting in the wing and that is China. As the newly elected Government in China appears to try to move away from its export driven economy to a more consumer base economy and the shift in policy as well as the asset, property bubble in China could eventually dampen the Chinese economy as well as sovereignty risk with its neighbour could also triggered uncertainty in the markets and with any of these events eventuate then watch out risk currencies, particularly the AUD could might as well goes below parity.
Impact News today:
10:00 am (NY) USD – Consumer Confidence.
Trading Positions:
Currently we are holdings a few positions and applying the daily cycles. Over the last 2 weeks we are only taking small positions and adding positions. Although We are in negative for the time been but do not let it deter you as the daily cycle will come over the coming days and once the correction kick in we are looking of at least 200 to 500 pips of correction on these pairs.
EURGBP – On Daily we have a complete 100% projection of Channel Duplication and with yesterday Gap Up could prove to be an exhaustion Gap so the pair will probably play around this region or a tad higher over the next few days before falling over and eventually will retest the uptrend line or retest of the breakout level. Note: Charts for EURCAD is also similar to EURGBP.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 29 Winning Trades: 23 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,277.6
30 Jan 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Well beside the Euro and the Yen buck the trend there isn’t much movement decent movement around. What we have seen over the last week or so was the Equities market are pushing and pushing higher and the Euro tags along as well while the Pound and the Aussie has been heading south which is quite unusual. So, there must be a missing link and as we have been saying since the last 2 weeks updates: The Equities market is overshoot itself for the time being and correction as we sense, is just around the corner.
As from today till end of the week and leading into February should provides lots of trading opportunities as there will be more frequent and sensitive news flowing into the market that certainly moves the currency market. And if the correction eventuate as we suspect it will shortly over the coming week or 2 then the deep pullback from the Euro is not out of the question. Impact News today:
10:00 am (NY)
08:15 am (NY) USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
08:30 am (NY) USD – Advance GDP
02:15 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Statement
03:00 pm (NY) NZD – Official Cash Rate; RBNZ Rate Statement.
Technical Analysis:
We are still holding 4 pairs that we are trading with daily cycles and just be patient and do not over trade and do not using big lots size on these trades.
Anyway, today We would like to bring to your attention to the USDCHF pair. Base on H4 chart below the pair has made a zigzag retracement within the tight channel and prices currently sitting on the 61.8% Fibonacci support. There are 2 ways of playing this: One – looking for a bullish H4 candle formation (a bullish marubozu candle is most preferable) at around this level then enter Long for a retest of at least previous high. Two – we have a pending Buy order which is sitting a bit lower closer to the uptrend line, at about the intersection of the bottom of the channel and the uptrend line; here we had the support of the uptrend line and the Major support at around 0.9170 as price is being oversold and is we look and visualise H1 chart when price reaching this point it probably would create a Bullish Divergence on H1 and Stochastic would also in coming off from oversold and heading up which will go in tandem with H4. Charts below.
USDCHF - H4
USDCHF - H1
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Number of Trades: 32 Winning Trades: 26 Losing Trades: 6 Total Pip Gain/Loss: +1,459.1
31 Jan 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
The Europhobia is now seems as thing of the past people as though majority of traders are joining in the ride on the Euro band wagon. Has it really turns the corner? We doubt that is the case, as a matter of fact, we took a contrarian view with this current market and said that the Euro Debt Crisis is just the tip of the iceberg. Sure, it looks as though the crisis has been stabilised but we now know that this was an easy fix such that, well, we had a debt crisis happening around the globe and the solution that these central banks came up with is printing more money and feed to the bank or just throwing/lending to troubled banks and problems will be contained. Well, guess what? The debt crisis is just an appetizer for Euro group at the moment and supper will soon be serve to the Euro Zone as they will soon face problem with economy crisis where high Euro will eventually dampen the recovery and when countries like Greece, Spain unemployment rate hitting the 30% mark then the catastrophic will take its toll. Remember, as for Greece Bailout they have agreed to stick to the stiff Austerity as agreed with the European Union so there isn’t much room for Greece Government to manoeuvre in spending to support its economy. So, the higher the Euro for the time being will be harder the fall once reality of fundamental catch up.
The rise of the Euro yesterday also supported by the fall in the dollar as the FOMC statement remains the same, the FED will keep printing $85 billion per month to support its economy, although last month some of the members in the FED panel did voice out that they are not happy with the ongoing printing of the dollar but that might just be the view of minority for time being. So, as long as there isn’t any major event risk happening and the FED keeps its printing machine running then the dollar will come under further pressure. Just wondering if anyone out there would think this is just part of their strategy that they use in the so called Currency War?
Impact News today:
08:30 am (NY) CAD – GDP
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – PPI
08:30 pm (NY) CNY – Manufacturing PMI.
Technical Analysis:
Yesterday we exited all of our holdings on GBPNZD for a total of 251 pips profits as prices reached out TP1. We also got tapped out of EURCAD for 69.5 pips loss. We are now looking to re-enter GBPNZD with a pending Buy limit which currently only about 40 pips away from entry. Prices has been pulling back a 150 pips since we exited. USDCHF we entered yesterday came under the bearish pressure after the FOMC statement anyway, stop remains if it hits which is only 20 pips away, we will just have to cop the loss of 100 pips on this trade and will wait till all indicators line up again. Below is H4 chart of GBPNZD.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 07 Months , First Week
Number of Trades Total | This Month:2223 | 6 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 178 | 6 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5927.0 | 207.0
05 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Firstly, we would like to say sorry for not having yesterday update due to our service broker (AsxiTrader) doing maintenance and changing from Australian Server to US server on the weekend and we have a bit of hiccups on Monday when we first log in. We sincerely apologised for that.
Last week we have a bullish Equity markets that seen the Dow Jones shooting past the high that was set back in 2007 and the Euro touched 1.3700. It was amazing to phantom that the Euro Zone has abruptly got out of trouble at start of the year, such is the work of spin doctor Mister Draghi. Well it seems like so if you look at the Euro dollars or at least traders/investor bought and brought into that view and that the Euro dollars now looks as like a safe haven currency.
Oh well, yesterday things were put in reverse and we have the first biggest 1 day decline for the year as the Equity market as well as the Euro gave up most of its gained last Friday. It’s not surprised to see the pullback after a strong run at the beginning of the year and also Traders are getting nervous as of what Draghi have to say on this coming Thursday regarding the Rate decision. If he still put up a hawkish tone then we probably will see traders buying into that again and push the Euro higher but if this time round he set a dovish tone then we might see the Euro to come off further. Add on to that, from yesterday news we now have Spain which now has over 26% of unemployment rate and for the month of January alone it added 2.7% of unemployment – that’s spell trouble not better. Next to Spain we have Italy where the “Bad Boy” or should we call “The Lady Man” - Berlusconi is gaining traction on political front and so it seems that the Euro crisis and uncertainty is once again or about to, come around haunt traders/investors.
In approximately 2 hours time we will have the RBA rate decision, many institutions think that Rate will remain unchanged, as often the RBA do not play a proactive role they probably will stand on the sideline and see what’s going on around the globe being taking action. But note, if they decide to cut rate, and we of opinion think that they should, then the AUD will crash lower as that would be an unexpected news. So look out for AUDUSD over the next few hours.
Impact News today:
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Service PMI
10:00 am (NY) USD – Non Manufacture PMI
07:30 am (NY) AUD – Retail Sales.
Technical Analysis:
Last Friday we were caught out with unexpected exuberance of the market that we think have no fundamental backing to it. It could have been a truly bull market has finally arrive and traders/investor was chasing the market afraid of being left behind, OR, it could be stop hunt by market makers . We chose to believe it was the later and we did widen our stop to the maximum that we could possibly taken and that could as well took our draw down up to 10%. Another reason we did that was because of our broker is changing server on the weekend and comes Monday we might experience difficulties when logging in. So there were a possibility of not being able to follow the market when opens we chose to have done so.
Now we might have a correction starting (especially the Euro) but as prices pullback there will be traders that would look to buy the dips and traders that miss out on previous run will cramp to get on as they do not want to miss out again. We will not buy into that, not when we had a Daily Engulfing candle yesterday and bearish Divergence on Daily as well as being overbought. We will look for prices to retrace on H4 to maybe ½ way of the Daily bearish candle or retest of previous peak to go short.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
Duration: 07 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month:223 | 6 Winning Trades Total | This Month: 178 | 6 Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5927.0 | 207.0
06 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:
Tomorrow we will have the ECB rate decision and most surveys reckon that rate will be on hold for the Euro Zone. It will come down to what Draghi, President of the ECB has to say, would he still stick to his hawkish view that was hold last month or would he rather take a dovish tone this time to stem the appreciation of the Euro amid the Euro crisis that threaten to flare up again comes end of February with the election in Italy and the Corruption allegation around Spain President Rajoy and moreover, countries around Europe have not adding enough jobs, as a matter of fact, Spain’s unemployment had spike to over 26% and that is not a good sign at all and if it ever happen when Spain or any other country, unemployment rate hit over 30% then they will have to throw in the towel. If Greece’s unemployment reaches that level we would expect Greece’s Government will ask for the exit door out of the Euro voluntarily; they just have to, to be able to survive because to stay in the Euro they have to stick to strict Austerity plan that drawn up for them and surely they just could not do what the American and UK did: printing your way out of trouble.
Yesterday the Reserve Bank of Australia put rates on hold but with economy showing signs of weakness of late the RBA Governor Glen Steven had lean to a dovish tone and signal that they stand ready to cut rates down the track. Early tomorrow Asian trading session we will have the Aussie releasing the Unemployment Rate and about 3 hours ago we had the Australia Retail Trade that falls short of expectation and if unemployment rate to be release tomorrow also fall short of expectation then we expect a rate cut in March.
From yesterday chart on the EURUSD the prices now has retraced and stall at around 50% (1.3585)of previous leg down (H4). At around here if it formed a big Red candle and trade below previous low then expect for another fall of around 250 pips. Refer to yesterday chart.
The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.
