myfxpedia: Daily Signals and Strategies

[junaid1001]

USDJPY analysis
USDJPY is moving around the resistance level at 93.17 now. Then, I think USDJPY is in bullish sentiment now. If USDJPY can break this resistance level successfully, I expect this pair will go up more higher and may reaches the next resistance level at 94.31.

 

[Amelia]

07 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 07 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: 225 | 8
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 180 | 8
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +5997.7 | 277.7


07 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Today and tomorrow we expect lots of volatility in the FX market as there are flush of news going to hit market during London and NY opens. Traders will watch news from the Euro, most analysts expect the ECB will leave rates unchanged. It won’t be the rate decision that will drive the Euro, unless they unexpectedly cut Rate, what traders will look for is what the ECB President Draghi has to say. Would he try to curve the fast appreciation of the Euro while the crack within the Euro Zone economy start to show: recently, spike of Bond rate in Spain and Italy, low Retail Sales, and political uncertainty in Spain and Italy. We have France getting agitated with the fast appreciation of the Euro while Germany’s Government spoke person saying that the raise of the Euro isn’t a threat to the economic recovery at all. Just wondering is this so call “spoke person” have any idea of international trades and exchange rate at all, maybe they will feel the pinch once Lexus, high end Japanese Automotives invading the like of Audi and BMW then will wake this so called “spoke person”.

Anyway, it will all depend on what Draghi has to say tonight and we think that any further push higher toward 1.40 will soon meet with rude awakening of falling out of bed. The other importance news will also come from the UK, although we expect the Bank Rate to keep on hold but what will likely drive the Pound would be what they intend to do to avoid the triple dip recession and will they announce of further stimulus and weaken the Pound even further. Stay tune.

Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing Production
04:45 am (NY) GBP – BOE Governor-Designate Carney Speaks
07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate
07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rate
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits
08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
06:50 pm (NY) JPY – Current Account
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – RBA Monetary Policy Statement

Technical Analysis:

With high impact news tonight we decided to limited our holding on GBPNZD in case the UK governor decided to add on further stimulus to weaken the Pound. Chart-wise, we can see that this pair is building a bottom and being way oversold, also, when we base on H4 we currently having a strong resistance with overbought while on H1 also given us Negative Divergence, so we expect the pair to go sideways or pullback to ease the overbought on H4, H1 before the high impact news release then direction will be determined.

GBPNZD - H4



GBPNZD - H1






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

08 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 07 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: 228 | 11
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 183 | 11
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6175.9 | +455.9


08 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Ok, It seemed that Draghi did what we have expected (yesterday update) as being prudent. Surely, he isn’t a fool after all and knows exactly what is needed for the health of the European economy to be well on the path of recovery and so his tone was more cautious, a turnaround from last month speech, for sure he must have make life like hell for many traders going Short on the Euro with tight stops. As we have say it many times before, in this sort of business where and when we have identify a terminal zone and technical is not in sync with fundamental then soon the fundamental will prevail. The problem for us as traders is to be ready to weather and survive the storm; at time markets behave much more irrational than your pocket can bear and before it’s coming to its sense and so we must stand ready to take on that storm and strategise our entries, in this case we entered with small lots sizes and widen our stops and stand ready for a drawdown of 10%.

Over the last two weeks that was exactly happened to us and this is the 2nd times its has happened over the last 9 months. The last time it happened was 2 months ago and we came out with a record pips collected for the month and now we slowly steer our way out of this storm once again and collecting pips as we doing so.

At times our strategy/system might not suit everyone but rest as sure, there isn’t any holy grail strategy/system out there. It all comes down to Risk Management and knowing your Risk and sticking to your trading plan and ultimately, as a trader you must adopt to the ability of trading without Greed nor Fear.

Impact News today:

12:30 am (NY) CNY – CPI
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Trade Balance; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) USD – Trade Balance.

Technical Analysis:

We just add on another position on USDCAD. This pair we entered with a small lot size 4 days ago and after yesterday candles formation H4 and a retested of uptrend line holds we decided to entered another lot at the same prices level of our 1st entry with same stop but different target. Chart below.

USDCAD – H4




The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

11 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: 228 | 11
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 183 | 11
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6175.9 | +455.9


11 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

First of all we would like to say Happy New Year to all our Asian members that celebrate the New Year according Moon Calendar. May this year bring you Prosperity and the Life that you always long for.

Early in the week there isn’t much fundamental news to actually move the market and with the Chinese new year which they celebrate for at 3 days so we do not expect much fundamental news coming out of Asia for the course of the week, but with last Friday comment from the Japanese Finance Minister just before he was heading for New Year celebration was enough to toughen up the Yen. Mr. Aso, said that the severe weaknesses in the Yen came as a surprise to the Government as they have never intended to do so, not wanting to engage in a so called “Currency War” anyway. Yeah, sure, we believe you and pardon my French, “Mr. Ass –ole”.

Also from last week prices behaviour on the EURUSD had took off the boil and pullback from the overbought after Druggy “Draghi” speeches. Technically, on weekly we have a Juicy bearish Engulfing Candle pattern, with Negative Divergence on MACD. This signal as warning sign of trend change, but mind you, thing just don’t go in straight line, especially after a strong trend so we might have a zigzag or even another push higher on stop hunts and sucking in new long positions before it came crashing hard. So, our advise is not to chase the market, that is not to add new Short position at current prices just yet. Wait for a retrace at least about 1.3500 before taking Short position but only take small position as we just said, it could push up to retest previous high or even make a false break higher. So, any push higher than 1.3500 we will only look for Shorts.

Impact News today:

All Day – Euro Group Meetings.

Technical Analysis:

We are currently hold 4 positions on 3 pairs and have so far banked 455 pips. Earlier in the months, although we were holding 9 positions at one time but still within our Risk parameter as well as within the maximum drawdown parameter and that was all due to Risk Management and if you read out daily updates you would have noticed that since late January we have been constantly reminding you of market being irrational and we took the contrarian view to the prices behaviour and only trade with small lot size which so far have prove fruitful. There’s a famous investor that always take the contrarian view to the market and would ride the storm to come out on top, yes, we are talking about Warren Buffett, Just look at his recent investment back in 2008 for which initially seemed like a bad investment but now, 2 weeks ago from CNBC he had came out on top as best investor and won the race....again.

Anyway, We just want to emphasise the importance of Risk Management and guts to stick to your strategy. Once you have identify a trade that meet your strategy then work on your Risk Management and the trade will take care of itself.

Lets now take a look at USDCAD. We are holding 2 positions on this pair with latest entry was last Friday which is twice the lots size of our initial entry and both entries are basically of the same entry prices. Our first entry was aggressive, a testing the water sort of thing with small lot size as we identified the range. Initially it went against us but never reach our stop then reverse and formed a good reliable candle pattern we therefore took another add on positions. This pair has now (at time of writing) given us 60 pips in front. We are now moving our stop to just above our entry prices. The one thing that we hate most as trader is to see a winning trade turn into a losing trade, the feeling and the psychology behind it is very damaging, we can assure you that.

The pair has now reach our 1st target project – you can check from last Friday update – but with the momentum still going strong we will look for a retest of previous high. Chart below:

USDCAD –H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

12 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: 231 | 15
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 186 | 14
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6426.3 | +706.3


12 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

It was relative mute for the EURUSD pair yesterday which slowly creep up to 1.3400 but unable to clear the psychological resistance. The standout pairs that actually making decent move yesterday were the Pound USD and USDCAD. The Pound still under heavy downward pressure and yesterday moves has given up all the rally that it managed late last week. It was a straight V-shape reversal for the Pound yesterday, according to our H4 chart, It currently retesting last week low. If last week low can’t hold then we probably will see 1.5500 very quickly but watch and be careful of false break, that is, it could push below last week low and do a stop runs then reverse course. If it is a false break we may find good support after 30 to 50 pips below previous low. As for USDCAD, we manage to get on board and collected about 100 pips for each of our 2 separate entries, if USDCAD manages to clear the 1.0100 level then there isn’t much resistance for the pair to run to 1.0220.

Anyway, over the next few days there are many fundamentals news will directly or indirectly effects currency movement, particularly the Euro and the Yen pairs. This week market watchers are watching closely the GDP of the majors then we will have 2 days meeting of G20 starting on Friday with one of the hot issue will be on the table would be the devaluation of currency as it seems to have taking shape. Interesting time ahead as we slowly going through February folks.

Impact News today:

03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI
04:30 am (NY) GBP – CPI
05:00 am (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks.
08:45 am (NY) CAD – BOC Governor Carney Speaks.

Technical Analysis:

Below are charts of USDCAD and GBPNZD which our pending Buy limit triggered during NY session and we exited at end of NY session for 50 pips. We now have another pending buy limit on this pair where we look for prices to retest the uptrend line created on H4, H1. Base on H1 we look for this pair to form Bullish Divergence. Note: this pair has been in serious down trend and way oversold and it is in the process of building bottom and once the cycle change this pair can make pretty good upside correction. The one thing that put off traders on this pair is the Swap so only play with small lot size and once we see the cycle change then we will stick with it for many days.

USDCAD – H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

13 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: 232 | 16
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 187 | 15
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6471.2 | +751.2


13 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Although there were lack of related news for the Euro Zone the EURUSD seems to resume its uptrend and slowly creeping up in a tight range toward 1.3500 area. There isn’t any high impact news for the remaining of the week but over the next 2 days we will have reports on GDP from countries within the Euro Group as well as Trade Balance of the Euro, although not highly impact on the Euro but would provide a glimpse into the state of the European economy.

If you have read yesterday update, on the very 1st paragraph where we mentioned of Stop Hunts could be in play on GBPUSD and as prices behaviour on H4 chart has shown us exactly that. It went below previous low/support and quickly ran for another 60 pips (well, our prediction were out by 10 pips) and then totally retraced to the upside and went back above previous support creating a false break. If any of you were watching the market last night and had read our update earlier and using H1/M30 to enter Long on this pair you have done a great job. Congrats.

Anyway, we do expect this week is just a set up week for the next 2 weeks of high volatility weeks with news from the G7, G20 meetings and the political sovereign risk in Spain and Italy will heat up over the coming days. So, stay tune.


Impact News today:


05:30 am (NY) GBP – BOE King Speaks; Inflation Report
08:30 am (NY) USD – Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales
10:00 am (NY) USD – Treasury Security Speaks.


Technical Analysis:

As said above we are now planning our attack on GBPUSD as the pair had has a false break on H4 and formed a good bullish long tail doji on Daily so we will put on a pending Buy limit with stop 25 pips below yesterday low. Remember this pair is still under downward pressure so we only trade with small lot size. Chart below.

GBPUSD – Daily.






GBPUSD - H4





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[junaid1001]

EURCHF analysis:
pair is starting to become strong bearish mode from level 1.2287 after simultantly confirmation from histograms of MACD, Bulls Power and also Bears Power indicators are in negative value as very strong downtrend movement indication

 

[junaid1001]

USDCHF analysis:
very strong bullish mode is confirmed by both of histograms of MACD, Bulls and also Bears Indicators simultantly which are above zero line or positive value as indication for strong drive for uptrend movement from level 0.9309

 

[junaid1001]

SILVER nalysis:
If we look on the current candle on H4 time frame, Silver is trying to break 28.72 resistance level now. Then, if Silver can break this resistance and can also break the yesterday's high, I expect Silver will go up to the higher resistance level at around 29.23.

 

[junaid1001]

EURGBP analysis:
I think the bearish movement on EURGBP is strong enough now. This pair has been rejected by the support level at 0.8635 for two times, but I think the rejection is not too strong. I think it will be more possible if EURGBP falls. If EURGBP can breaks 0.8635 support level successfully, this pair may falls to the next support level at 0.8593.

 

[Amelia]

15 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 07 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Trades Total | This Month: 232 | 16
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 187 | 15
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6471.2 | +751.2


15 Feb 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Hope everyone has had a wonderful Valentine Day and spent most of your day with your love one than glue to FX chart. Anyway, from yesterday Europe released a series of trouble GDP across the board with Germany fell -0.6%, France -0.3%, Italy plunged -0.9% while Spain and Netherland also contracted. The disappointing GDP speak out the state of economy for Europe still a long way from recovery and anyone of the thought of Euro Crisis is behind us then they are kidding themself. With poor GDP released yesterday has prices quickly rejected the 1.3500 level forming an inverted hammer on daily chart, a reversal at 1.35. However, prices found support at the 1.3330 uptrend line support. We expect the Euro to be weaken further, to at least 1.3200 area where it will retest the primary uptrend line, below that will open doors for further downside with 1.2780 as target.


Today we will have the UK Retail sales figure which will determine the direction of the Pound in short term: A good Retail numbers will give the Pound a good rebound that it needs after being in a serious down trend at beginning of the year, if the news is going to be disappointing would further indicate the UK is closer to the triple dip recession and that could push the pound further toward 1.5300 support.


Early in the Asian trading session today we have the NZD retail sales number that came in strong and that has helped the pair NZDUSD passed the 0.8500 barrier. Now let talk about the NZD for a minute. We are of the view that this currency is way overbought and overrated and the correction on this pair will soon eventuate. It is in our view that NZD is currently in the Terminal zone and when the cycle turn this pair can run down substantially quickly. Noted that New Zealand only has the population of just over 4 million people, a much small size GDP than many developed countries and when it comes to currency, the NZD can be very illiquid and just like in any illiquid stocks when in time of trouble people will take a run and sell out at whatever prices they could and this will put on a tremendous pressure on the NZD. We will only look to go short on NZDUSD or Long GBPNZD. We had already Long GBPNZD with our bath tub play and we only add small positions on the pair so that the overall holdings will always stay within our risk parameter.


Impact News today:


04:30 am (NY) GBP – Retail Sales

09:55 am (NY) USD – Consumer Sentiment.


Technical Analysis:


We are currently holding 3 pairs of multiple entries on each pair and they are sitting well within our risk parameter. We expect the Euro will under pressure short term and least pullback another 100 -200 pips to find a meaningful support there about.


As for GBPNZD we think it is way over sold. It is in the process of building the bottom. We had a monster Monthly Bullish Divergence. Daily Continuous bullish Divergence and H4 already has more than 20 candles ride to the downside on the last run down without any retraces. We therefore will look for retrace to the upside toward at least 1.8750 to 1.9000. This chart set up reminding us of USDJPY back in about late 2011 to February 2012 when we have monster Monthly Divergence and Continuous Bullish Divergence on Weekly. The only problem and put off on this pair, GBPNZD, is that we are facing with negative swaps so if anyone with account of swap free should not be afraid to hold on to this pair. Although we cannot pin point as to when the cycle will turn but we can say that it is very close.


USDCHF - H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

6 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 242 | 1
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4


06 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

First of all we are very sorry for being absent from our daily updates this was due to our Chief trader relocating his offices. We supposed you all know how hectic it is when you have to move places. Anyway, things are now settle and we should have our regular market updates from now.

The FX market over the last 2 weeks have been trading in a tight boring range. What we noticed is that the Equities market keep pushing higher and yesterday actually had breakout to new high and yet the risk currencies just shrugged it off and not moving in the same direction with the Equities market as they used to do and the same as commodities such as Gold, Silver...etc. they are just sitting as a flat bed.

The break out of the high from the stock market should be put in questions as this could be just a sucker rally, this could be the perfect storm in the making. So, how would we position ourselves in the event that we are going to have a stock market correction heading our way? Well, we will seek the safe haven currencies, predominantly USD and if we are to buy/sell the cross pairs we will look to bank on the currency that has bigger GDP. Keep that in mind folks. Also from CNBC yesterday you can watch the interview of a veteran trader, Art Cashin (Damn, We even love his name here at Myfxpedia – Art Cashing in) from the NY stock exchange that share our view regarding the overheated market in an unsubstantiated rally. You can watch it here http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000152041

Now, yesterday we have the Reserve Bank of Australia decided to keep Rate on holds , coupled with better than expected Retail Sales and this give the AUD a boost to the upside. In our view, the AUD and NZD going forward will be going lower so, with this push up in the AUD we will watch with interest and patiently wait for signal to sell the pairs. The reason we came to such view is that recently, China, with the newly appointed government has initiated in focussing on its own domestic economy while doing all it could to curb the overheated property market. The law in China from our last look up is that every individual now can only (on paper) owe 1 property to live in only. This is their way of curbing, stopping the riches from investing in property and inflated the properties prices. Now if that is actually the case we will see a slow down in property market, in turn would slow down constructions and therefore prices of commodities, materials will also fall and with commodities prices, namely Iron Ore, fall this will surely affect the Aussie commodity market and certainly will drag the AUD much lower.

Impact News today:

04:45 am (NY) GBP – King Speaks
08:15 am (NY) USD – Non – Farm Employment change
10:00 am (NY) CAD – BOC Rate Statement; PMI; Overnight Rate
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Trade Balance


Technical Analysis:

Ok, we have been holding 2 pairs EURGBP and GBPNZD for a while now. Both pairs are currently in the process of forming (temporarily ?) tops and bottoms. We just have to be patience with them as the potential rewards on this 2 pairs can be huge. Now let us delve into each one of them.

EURGBP – Daily



EURGBP – H4



GBPNZD - H4





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

7 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 242 | 1
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4


07 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Geez, we are going into today with a whole lot of high impact news. The most anticipate new for tonight that traders will be watching very closely would be the ECB rate decision. The question is would the ECB step in to actually spoil the party that put a halt on the Equity market euphoria of late and base on the last few weeks of data coming out of Europe that showed the economy in Europe is deteriorating and so a slash of interest rate by the ECB should not come as a surprise.

Yesterday, the Bank of Canada leaves rate on hold and what dragged the CAD down was the Statement that state that there are rooms for further easing and things deteriorated any further.

Anyway, as said in previous update we are now witnessing the euphoria of the market as it keeps on pushing higher on a non considerable volumes and for which we are very sceptical about this equity hype. If we take a hard good look at the facts we will see that market over the last 4 years or so has been driven by the FED and Central Banks around the world as they keep on printing money and feed hungry investors while the actual state of the economy, such as employment isn’t at all healthy or anywhere to be consider healthy.

Back in early January, in one of our update, we did gave a bold call and suggested that this rally in the market will soon be dealt with a nasty blow over the next 4 to 6 months. Yes, back in January we did stated that we do expect a Correction in the Stock Market over the next 4 to 6 months and come along the risk currencies as well. Oh well, our timeline is drawing near and yes we still do hold on to that view and this could happen in any day now, could it be this month? Or sometimes in early April just to mark the 12 years anniversary of the Tech Crash? Just have to wait and see.

Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves
04:00 am (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate
07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rates
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits; Trade Balance
08:30 am (NY) EUR – ECB Press Conference
09:30 am (NY) USD – Trade Balance; Unemployment Claims
04:30 pm (NY) USD – Bank Stress Test
06:50 pm (NY) JPY – Current Account

Technical Analysis:

EURGBP - still range bound as base on H4, we will probably see decent movement on this pair tonight after the ECB rate decision.

GBPNZD – as explain yesterday this pair is currently in a subwave5 of wave2 and if it has put on the low for this subwave5 completed @ 1.8065 then we would expect a wave3 up and creating a short term trend change. Note: This pair could go lower to retest previous low of 1.7970. We anticipated this pair is in the process of forming the base and the retrace to the upside can be very rewarding with this pair and so we only getting into this pair with small lot size.

AUDNZD – Yesterday our pending order triggered, from the chart below we can see that the pair has put in a bottom forming short term higher highs and higher lows then put on a pullback forming Flag pattern. We entered after it formed a minor support of 1.2310 by creating a triple tweezers and MACD creating a hidden bullish divergence. At time of writing the prices has now just break out of the Flag and resume the short term uptrend. If the wave count is valid then we could see a Wave3 projection which usually at least equal the length of Wave1. Chart below.

AUDNZD – H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

8 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 01 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 242 | 1
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 194 | 1
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +6957.9 | +63.4


08 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

From yesterday news released we have the BOE and the ECB both decided to keep rate on hold. Prior to the BOE new the Pound was well and truly under the downward pressure but quickly regained its ground once traders learned that rate on hold as well as no change within their current QE program. While the Euro came alive kicking after comments from the ECB President, Draghi, that said the Euro zone is expecting a slow recovery in the later ½ of 2013 but urged all countries within the zone to be on track with their reforms.

The rally in the Euro was also helped by the Spain bond auction which went much better than expect with took out the investor fear regarding the country debt burden. The thing that really bugger our minds is the disconnections between markets and the actual health of the economy. From yesterday rally we had the market ignoring the fact that German came out with news of “unexpectedly decline in Factory Orders” and mind you most of the news came out of Germany over the last month or two spell troubles yet, all these fundamental healthy of the economy being shrugged off and market keep pushing higher, although of no significant committed buyers in the market (no volumes) as we seen most of the Index keeps pushing higher and higher. Let us tell you what? These sort of behaviours in the market spells Perfect Storm is drawing near. It probably will take a bad data coming out of the US or Euro will signal a panic selling and we mean a good 3 days to a week of heavy selling (correction), not just a pullback like the one we just have at beginning of the week. Since we do not know when and where it will take place the only thing we can do is to position ourselves, you just have to be in it to win it, and since the market sometimes can be very irrational we therefore only playing with small lots and patiently waiting for the fundamentals to root this market.

Today we have the Non-Farm payroll coming out of the US and as we seen of late most of data coming of the US showing signs that the country is well and truly on the path of recovery and so many will expect improve number of employments. If we are going to see a number of more than 162,000 employment added to the work force we probably will see another rally in the risk assets.

Impact News today:

03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) USD – Non-Farm Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) CNY - CPI

Technical Analysis:

We are still holding our 3 pairs, although they are in negative but still below our risk parameter. We have been in this situation many times before and each time we always came out with record pips so, just be patient, as long as we are within our risk parameter we will get our chance. The only put off that we do not like is the swap on GBPNZD but well, just part of trading, we just can’t have everything the way we like it hey.

AUDNZD – This pair has now breakout of the Flag pattern and looks as though it’s on its way to form Wave3. Once it reaches 100 pips we will exit ½ and bring to breakeven the others with TP of 1.2725.

EURGBP – We are looking to add position on this pair with our pending order. Chart below.






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

11 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 243 | 2
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 195 | 2
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7078.0 | +183.5


11 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Lately we have seen the Equities markets around the world is going nuts, all the indexes seems to be on drug and keep shooting higher. The only index that is lagging as compare to other country is from China, the MIA. Maybe they know something and not going along with the herds. Are they missing band wagon or their investors are more calm and prudent? We tend to think it’s the later. From our perspective we do not have the confident in this unsubstantiated rally either but yes we do think in later part of the year we probably will get a meaningful bull market but not after a decent correction.

Looking at the indexes, noticeably is the S&P, we are currently have prices at multi-weeks high and overbought while on Daily we have Continuous Negative Divergence and overbought and we therefore expect a decent pullback will happens shortly, it could start this very week and as many participants in the market use to say “ Buy in December and Sell in April/May”.

Over the weekend Politicians from Germany came out saying that policy makers has to be careful of softer Euro as it could push the inflation out of proportion and another is saying that the main and greatest threat to the Euro is still Greece and even suggest Greece to exit of the Euro that would be the best case scenario for the Euro. Wow, that’s a very daring, gutful suggestion. Firstly, we don’t think the Greece mind of being shown the exit door and unless they are being push out of the Euro they won’t voluntarily leave the Euro. They will stay in the zone for as long as they can and put their hand out for more Bailout Funds while “Druggie” of the ECB will come out and says “ ECB will do all it can...”. If you were Greece would you do the same? Stick to the zone for as long as you can and get feed until you cannot be fed any further, why not?

Now, what would happen if Greece being shovel out of the Euro Zone? Is it the best case scenario for the Euro as many think it is? Maybe, the Euro Group were reluctant to kick Greece out of the Group because they do not want to set the precedent as the market would go into spin and the next question on the lips of investors would be, who’s next? Spain, Italy, Portugal, Ireland...etc? Too much headache, let’s leave it alone.
Last Friday, we had an excellent Non-Farm Payroll number from the US and that’s send the USD soaring against others currencies, the only currency that buck the trend was CAD which also boast a good number of employments for the month. Over the last 2 months or so we have witness the much better improvement of the state of economy from North America and base on that market sentiments we will look to buy into the USD on pullback.


Impact News today:

None


Technical Analysis:

There are no impact news today and not until Wednesday do we have meaningful news coming through FX market, so, expect a range bound trading over the next couple days.

EURGBP and GBPNZD as mentioned last Friday, this 2 pairs are building the top and bottom, They are playing around the tops and bottoms a little bit before reversing trends we just have to be patience.

AUDNZD – the pair behave just exactly according to our analysis last Friday. We exited ½ positions and trail stop just below the Resistance turn Support, about 27 pips above our entry. Our next target will be @ 1.2580 then 1.2720. Chart below

AUDNZD – H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

12 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 243 | 2
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 195 | 2
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7078.0 | +183.5


12 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


The Equity market around the world must be on steroid and keep pushing higher but mind you it’s not because we have buyers eager to getting into the market at least volumes doesn’t say so. It’s the lack of Sellers in the market that created help creating the bullish scenario with low volumes. We suspect sellers are lurking behind the scene patiently waiting for the opportunity to pounce on this sucker rally and when it happens we will see many of the currency pairs are also having correction as well

Impact News today:


05:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturer Production


Technical Analysis:


EURGBP and GBPNZD as stated yesterday, these two pairs are in the process of forming tops and bottoms and can be very rewarding. EURGBP we are looking for correction toward 0.8250 and for GBPNZD we are looking for 1.9000. So, be patience.

AUZNZD – yesterday during the late NY session we had a pullback on this pair and came real close to our trailing stop. It then bounce back to the up which confirmed of retest of the earlier breakout and watch for price action at the downtrend line resistance, around 1.2520 if it pushes up to that level, we might consider exiting the remaining lots as price at that level would meet heavy resistance plus we are having Negative Divergence on H4 also. Chart below.






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 244 | 3
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7


13 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


There wasn’t much to add as market as most of the major currencies are in range bound due to lacks of fundamental news. The only piece of news was from the GBP and as we can see the market had factor in of the disappoint data as prices was under downward pressure but as soon as news came the initial reaction was down but quickly change direction and regain most of the losing ground during the day.

Later tonight (NY time), early Thursday morning Sydney time we will have the Official Cash Rate decision from NZD. As many expect the cash rate to remain unchanged and so it all comes to what is going to be said by Governor Wheeler. Is he going to talk down the NZD or is he going to give a hawkish view of the New Zealand economy.

In our personal view, he probably will state a strong New Zealand economy but at the same will warn of the possible intervention from the RBNZ to keep the NZD in check by preventing of deterioration in the export industry. The reaction to this on the pair that we currently hold, GBPNZD: The initial reaction would be down, but the downside from here is limited and then a strong retracement to the upside for this pair.


Impact News today:


08:30 am (NY) USD - Core Retail Sales; Retail Sales
04:00 pm (NY) NZD – Official Cash Rate; RBNZ Press Conference; Rate Statement
08:05 pm (NY) NZD – RBNZ Governor Wheeler Speaks
08:30 pm (NY) Employment Change; Unemployment Rate.


Technical Analysis:

EURGBP and GBPNZD still playing out, we will be patience with these 2 pairs, it’s quite frustrating to hold GBPNZD due to terrible swap but it’s just part of the game. Regarding GBPNZD, due to high impact news later today we will watch carefully if it push for one more leg down as we anticipate this could be the last leg down before momentum shift to the upside or at least a strong retracement. That said, as the news will be release during the most illiquid trade hour it could be detrimental, it’s the perfect time for Market Makers doing Stop Runs on their traders so do not surprise if we decided to move our Stops to avoid being the victim of shark.

We exited AUDNZD today base on trailing on the 30 mins charts for 158 pips. We will look into this pair again over the next day or two for possible short as the pair has now formed Continuous Negative Divergence on H4 and had 2 attempts at the breakout of the downtrend line but fail both times on Daily chart. We will look for candle pattern, a juicy red candle form on the daily will trigger the short with target of recent low. Chart Below.


AUDNZD – Daily






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

14 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 244 | 3
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7


14 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Just as we said from yesterday updated: It’s not the rate decision from the RBNZ that move the market but what is being said by the Governor Wheeler that’s move the market. What Governor Wheeler said was exactly what we think as being prudent; he talked down the NZD and clearly stated that the NZD is OVERVALUE by 10 to 15% and that was enough for the drop in the NZD and that was exactly our view all along over the last 2 weeks or so. We have stated that the NZD is way overvalue that has been pump up with no fundamental behind it and ultimately the fundamental will come and root it and today we are starting to see the first sign of NZD taking shape in correction.

Beside the correction in some of the overheated currencies with no back up fundamentals we will shortly see a good correction in the equities market as well. We have been saying this for a while now, at least over the last 4 weeks and yesterday Art Cashin from CNBC also put out a good cautious tone of this market rally. You can watch Art Cashin here http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000154059&play=1 What intriguing from that Video was the fact that we had 9 straight days run to the upside and this has not happen over the last 16 years. In 1987, we have a straight 13 days up and then we know exactly what happened in 1987 hey.....the 2nd biggest correction since 1930. If history is anything to go by then let have some food for thought. Back in 1930 or should I said late 1929, October, we had the biggest market crashed that follow depression worldwide and market crawled its way back up just to see another good deep correction in 1936/37 which was 6/7 years apart. Since 2007 se have the SUPRIME Mortgage that triggered the triggered the financial meltdown which was known as GFC that prolonged until end of 2009. Now, we are in 2013 which is about 6/7 years from the start of the GFC. So what do you reckon?

Impact News today:


04:30 am (NY) CHF – Libor Rate; SNB Monetary Policy Assessment
08:30 am (NY) USD – PPI; Unemployment Claims.


Technical Analysis:

Ok, at the moment and from yesterday prices action it looks like we are about to see the correction in some of the overheated currency and from the pairs we hold that base on yesterday candle formation looks promising.

Over the last few weeks some of our newly joined members must have been agitated and wondering, questioning of our trades. What you need to understand in this sort of trading business is knowing your risk and having a proper Risk Management in place. To us, trading and taking positions is just part of the game but the ultimate driver of this game is to have risk under control and that was exactly what we did. If you go back to many previous post you will see that have many time stated about the condition of certain pairs and keep reminding our members of just taking small positions with wider stop and trade accordingly to their risk profile. You see, when we spot something that do not line up, fundamentally and technically, and as the pair entered in our Buy/Sell zone we will start to attack but because of the usual market irrational behaviour, we always give a leeway by wider stop and when the cycle turn that is when reality of fundamental awaken the traders then we will be in for a good profit. Yes, we know there are room to improve in our Entries execution but then, who can tell when the turn will take place? And if we are reluctant to take the trade and keep waiting so that we can get in at the best possible prices. Let us tell you this....we aren’t god, we aren’t fortune teller and we definitely have no magic mirror to tell when and where prices will take shape and if just sit idling on the sideline waiting for better prices to enter we, most of the time will miss the trades. We have been in this financial market long enough to realise that: “Only, Sound Risk Management is The Road to Prosperity”. Enough Said.

AUDCAD – Our pending triggered early in today Asian session due to unexpected rise in employment rate release by the Australian. A jump of 71500 as compare to 9500 forecast, yet, we do questioned of the actual employment since we have a huge jump in employment would that then equate to a good drop in Unemployment Rate also? But no, the unemployment rate came out at 5.4% while economist forecast of 5.5% which basically is in line with expectation. The only thing we can explain this is just the way they calculate the number of employment, such that they registered all people that work fulltime, part-time, casuals and yet, for part-time and especially Casuals they somehow also needs some sort of assistance from the department of Welfare to cover their daily living and that will also count as unemployed. Truly, we have no idea how did they come up with the numbers and yet the rate of Unemployment doesn’t seem to budge. Anyway, we are now in the trade, let see chart below.

AUDCAD – Daily

https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxped...dia-daily-review-14-Mar-2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg

AUDCAD - H4

https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxped...xpedia-daily-review-14-Mar-2013-AUDCAD-H4.jpg





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

15 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 02 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 244 | 3
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 196 | 3
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7236.2 | +341.7


15 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

There isn’t much impact news today beside the US and a conclusive 2 days EU summit. Many traders will look forward to what will coming out from the EU summit and as far as the fundamental of the European economy we all know that so far nothing has been fix, as a matter of fact it is getting worse base on many economic data release over the last few weeks.

In yesterday update, we mentioned about 1936, guess what? Later in the night during US we found an article by Tyler Durben from Zerohedge.com who put up a very interesting view with many similarities of what’s happing now as compare to 1936. Glad to have other sharing same view. You can read it here: http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-03-14/1936-redux-its-really-never-different-time

Another piece from yesterday that we mention was the fact that we had a huge jump in employment in Aust with an unchanged in the rate of Jobless Claims have us puzzle. Guess what, from many of the Australian leading economics today also came out questioning the authorities about that as well, just really, how they came up with that number, a number that was the best jobs number ever in the last 12.5 years. So, don’t be surprised to see the authority came out with an “apology” statement, just like the one we had from the US 3 months ago.


Impact News today:


08:30 am (NY) USD – Core CPI
09:55 am (NY) USD – Prelim Consumer Sentiment.


Technical Analysis:

We did mention in the last 3 updates or so that EURGBP and GBPNZD are both in the process of forming top and bottom and with yesterday prices action it would technically indicate that the start of correction for this 2 pairs are taking shape.

GBPNZD – from chart below we see that the pair has now breakout of the downtrend channel and by using Channel Projection, Price would then take us to at least around 0.8650 – 0.8750 area. Which then coincide with 38% fib retracement and Resistance level. Prices target is shaded in Eclipse.





EURGBP – Last week we had a 1 day Strong Bearish Engulfing candle, prices then retraced and retested the high 3 days ago and fail. We then have 2 consecutive down days with Negative Divergence. Yesterday Prices also broke below the low of the ascending wedge. Using Wedge target projection will take us to about 0.8350/0.8400 as first resistance once it close below 0.8600. Our 2nd target is the Long term uptrend line. Chart Below.





AUDCAD – See chart below


https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxped...pedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg


The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

18 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Project Summary ( click here to update online ):

Duration: 08 Months , 03 Weeks
Number of Closed Trades Total | This Month: 245 | 4
Winning Trades Total | This Month: 197 | 4
Pip Gain/Loss Total | This Month: +7323.8 | +429.3


18 Mar 2013 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Wow, that was a big gaps with the Euro pairs at the start of the week and could this be the catalyst that is require to cool down the overheated market. As of last Friday we already have a 10 straight days without any pullback from the Equities market and as of now we have an indication from the future market on the S&P which shown a gap down and so we would expect the Dow to be in the Red tonight. Now what cause this gap in the Euro?

Over the weekend, the Euro Group decided to gave Cyprus 10 billion Euro Bail Out money with a set of harsh condition to the Cyprus banks. After reading through the deal for the Bailout we gobsmack for the people of Cyprus or for any investors having their money deposited in the Cyprus banks. The deal is that depositors will be taxed by up to 9.9% for accounts over 100,000 Euro and for account that is less than 100,000 will be taxed at 6.75%. This is to help pay for the Bailout and what’s more? If you are Cypriots (locals) you now cannot empty for account on any particular day as the daily limit only allow you to withdraw 400 Euro. Ouch, That’s real hurt.

On the initial reaction for any traders first reaction that comes to mind would think this deal would be Euro positive since the ECB just legally rob the Cypriots to the core and so would expect Euro to go north as we seen price action from last Friday half way through NY open. Well, traders that pre-empt such measure are now stand to lose with such a gap down. Now let us think about this for a minute, what the ECB has done is just unfair and potentially scare all investors around the world in thinking twice about depositing funds into any of the European Banks or and banks within the Europe and worst if people of trouble countries such as Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Greece and Italy would now questions when will the ECB going to apply such measure to their banks? This uncertainty and fears hanging in the air will not do any good for the Euro as money will find its way out of Europe to find refuge and ultimately could eventually the breakup of the Euro.


Impact News today:


08:30 am (NY) AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting.


Technical Analysis:


With no impact news from the Europe and US today we do not expect prices swings as much but with the uncertainty and the discontent of the Cyprus Bailout, the market, traders and investors alike will probably let the policy makers hear their voice loud and clear.

As from our last Thursday update, we are expecting to EURGBP to 0.8350 – 0.8400 or even 0.8250 and retest the long term uptrend line and GBPNZD – we expect this pair to retrace up toward 1.8650 – 1.8750 or higher and if the Equity market correction to start this particular pair could potentially go straight to 1.9350. If you think we are over optimistic then wait till you see the day that the Dow has 2 days drop of at least 200 points or when the Euro crisis hit up again then you will see how this pair behave.

AUDCAD – This pair last Friday retested the uptrend line, bottom of the wedge and unable to breakdown , currently still ranging we still expect it to eventually breakdown from the wedge and move lower.

For the 3 pairs that we hold above, our view and target still hold true and we reassess the situation after today or when prices get closer to our target. This morning we only exit 1 position of EURGBP upon gaps and used H1 to close that position as prices from initial gap trade above the first H1 candle as that could potentially retrace to close the gap. After exited we put in another pending Sell limit if price manage to close the gap.

Please refer to last Friday charts as nothing much change from our view.








https://myfxpedia.com/forum/myfxped...pedia-daily-review-15Mar2013-AUDCAD-Daily.jpg


The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.