myfxpedia: Daily Signals and Strategies

[Amelia]

I will update my daily Signals and Strategies. Hope you and I can share knowledge and opportunity of forex.


Today analysis:

This week has been a total Risk Off week. So far, we have had 3 out of 4 days down for the week on the US stock markets. The only decent movement in currency are the Yen and Aussie pairs.

The Yen has just recently hit the six months low. There is now speculation of new Government from the opposition party will eventually take control for which the market is of the view that the incoming Government is in favour for more aggressive monetary easing policy. In other words, they want the BOJ to actively pursue further stimulus by raising Inflation Target up to 3% and even cutting the bench mark interest rate to zero. With these speculations surrounding the Japanese law makers and the rising momentum of the opposition party it is obvious that the Yen will be under pressure in the short to medium term.

The Aussie was lower against most of the major currencies yesterday. This was due to the report of the RBA reporting of its foreign exchange transactions. The report showed that the RBA has sold $483 million AUD more than it has done last month. The action of the RBA was view by speculators as being directly intervene in attempting to weaken the AUD. Now, let stop and think for a minute..... can this be true? It could be but I personally doubt that it is the case and how about a theory that it is because of foreign appetite for the AUD and so they want to buy AUD and stock it in their reserves and since anyone want to buy it the RBA is more than happy to sell it which in turn give them better control of the AUD than lets them manipulate the FX market. Also, how about because there are demand for the AUD for their Reserve that they have to have in their Reserve, if you accept this theory then you got to accept that through the action of RBA it simply signals that there are demand for the AUD.

Yes, I did mention yesterday that I do think the AUD is high and is having an inverse relation to the fundamental of the Australian economy. I do hold a view that it will be lower once the fundamental catch up but I don’t think that it is lower because of this speculation of RBA intervention.

In the US, today will be the first day of congress meeting that will focus on the way to avoid fiscal cliff. As i mentioned in yesterday update, it is unlikely that anything of substantial that will come out of this first meeting and this could take weeks before anything become materialise. Well, they still have about another 7 weeks anyway.


Impact News today:


None


Trading Positions:


Yesterday we cancelled the pending Sell Limit order on EURAUD and went in on Market as prices was dancing around close to our Sell prices. It happens as I was at the terminal so I decided to entered on Market. Guess what? As soon as I entered @ 1.2385, prices shot up another 12 pips @ 1.2397 which would be enough (including spread) to trigger our initial pending Order @ 1.2393. Since, this trade was base on my contrarian view than rather be running along with speculators (explained above re: AUD) and now wince prices has gone more than 30 pips our way upon entry. I now move my stop to 1.2378. Chart below.


EURAUD – Daily




EURAUD - H4

 

[Amelia]

19 Nov 2012 Daily Signals and Strategies


Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 13
Winning Trades: 11
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +445.0


Yesterday:


Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +7.0





Today analysis:

Going into this week the macroeconomic in the US will see the health of the housing sector and the building permits which schedule for release on Tuesday and on Wednesday we have Ben Bernanke addressing the Economic Club in NY which will also be accompany by the release of weekly Jobless Claim. All that aside, the main key factor still is the negotiation between President Obama and the Republicans on the fiscal cliff issue. Last Friday, after their 1st meeting the politicians labelled it as being “very constructive” which bring calms to investors and that can be seen through the late rally on the risk currencies. However, until the deal is struck there will not be any meaningful rally.

Also, it seems as though there were not enough uncertainty in the market we now also have the conflict in the middle east between Israel and the Palestinian, namely the Hamas group. This could blow into a full scale military action which in turn could affect the crude prices as the region supplying about 20% of world crude oil.

In Europe, investors/traders will look out for the IMF decision on Greece on Bailout funds.

As for the Yen, we are seeing the Yen weakness across the board last week and with the Japanese election on 15 December which has so far indicate that the former prime minister Shinzo Abe will triumph. Now, last week Abe did mention of his intention to go on out with “unlimited” QE to rejuvenate Japan economy. With “unlimited” QE? Would this be seen as the Yen assassination?

In Australia, all eyes will focus on the RBA minutes which will release at 07:30 pm NY times tonight to find any clue on December rate cut.

By assessing the global economy. We can see that there are serious headwind in Europe, US and evidently a slowdown in China and most of Asia. It is therefore naive to say or even think that Australia can sail through this global down turn as being unscathed. With this in mind I would say looking forward to December the RBA will cut rate again. How far would they go for a cut I would say 25 basis point as the norm and if they go for 50 basis point like they did last October then the Aussie battlers will feel a bit of a Xmas pressies and the AUD will lose ground fast with parity by Xmas is not out of the question.


Impact News today:


10:00am (NY) USD – Existing Home Sales
07:30pm (NY) AUD – Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes



Technical analysis:


We are currently only holding Long GBPUSD.

The pair I want to get your attention today is the AUDCAD. This pair we have had the pending Sell limit since the end of last month and if you noticed last Wednesday it came close to just 5 pips away to take us in before a 2 days juicy candles displayed on chart. If anyone of you did manage to jump in early then good on you. Anyway, as you can see from the chart below I have illustrated that the pair has pullback to the medium term uptrend line and found support. Now, I have 2 scenarios as shown on chart.


AUDCAD - Daily






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

20 Nov 2012 Signals and Strategies


Monthly Summary :

Number of Trades: 13
Winning Trades: 11
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +445.0


Today analysis:

There isn’t much to talk about today except for being boring of repeating myself over Euro debt crisis and US fiscal cliff. But anyway, just bear with me hey.

Sometimes today we probably will know is the Euro group will agree to hand bailout funds to Greece. Even if they now agree to provide further funds to Greece it won’t be till December and that only comes when Greece can sincerely shown that they meet all criteria and having implementation in place. Well, I hope thing will work out for the Euro and in particular the Greeks. The world knew they cooked the books just for them to get their foot into the Euro door and after being admitted into the Euro they again cooked the books for the 2nd times....well, they done it twice, surely they won’t do it for the 3rd time will they?

Now what more can I say about the Fiscal Cliff? Would there be a Cliff at all or maybe, as suggested by Warren Buffett yesterday, just a slope only. Ok, it could be just a slope only as we know that even if the Fiscal Cliff kicking in it would then take at least 3 to 6 months to actually see the effects and during that few months the law makers off course might get together and agree on something that will actually change the course of the fiscal policy. But hey, if they just let that happens I am certain the market will let them know loud and clear and surely the “big boys” will capitalise on this.....could it be the law makers are working with the “big boys” to fry us small fish? Oh no, I hate uncertainty in the market, the nervousness make me confuse. Anyway, we just have to look at it as being part of the fun for being traders. We just have to trade what we see with our utmost vigilant and hopefully we will survives many years to come.

Early this morning (Asia session) the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) release Minutes of Monetary Policy (you can find from the RBA website: rba .gov .au Reserve Bank of Australia - Home Page. Which outline as to why they decided to leave rate on hold last month. But here, I just want to bring your attention to the second last paragraph “ Members considered that further easing maybe appropriate in the period ahead............”. and as I have said in my last update and again from today report I am once again tipping that the RBA will start to cut rate next month on the first Tuesday of December. Mind you this is only a “tip” as to what I observe therefore, Not guaranteed.


Impact News today:

08:30 am (NY) USD – Building Permits
12:15 pm (NY) USD – Bernanke Speaks.



Technical analysis:


We are now holding Long in GBPUSD and Short in AUDUSD.

AUDUSD triggered our entry during NY session yesterday. See chart below.






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

21 Nov myfxpedia Signals and Strategies


Monthly Summary:

Number of Trades: 15
Winning Trades: 13
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +499.2


Yesterday:


Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +54.2





Today analysis:


The market in the US is currently like a jigsaw puzzle, especially when came a person of high calibre like Ben Bernanke talks about fiscal cliff. From his speech yesterday there was no really new thing that we already know about. What we were looking for in his speech were to find out as is there any hint of an expansion for the open end of asset purchase program. That is any hint of similarity to the potential upcoming Japan Government and that is willing to assassinate the USD.

The moment that Bernanke mention “fiscal cliff” the market started to get nervous and as he reiterated “fiscal cliff poses substantial threat to the economy and could cause recession”. As soon as that statement came out of his mouth the Dow Jones immediately tanked 80 points. Good on you Mr. Chairman, you are truly a scaremonger.

Add on to the nervousness was the statement from the investment Bank Morgan Stanley that warned of the economy that is literally stuck in the “twilight zone” of sluggish quarter in 2013 and if the law makers fail to act it could get worse. What’s more? They, the Morgan Stanley’s economic team even gave a forecast of full blow recession sometime next year. Another scaremonger I suppose.

Going to the Euro, the debt ridden groups, we also had another blow to one of its member from the rating agency, Moody. They had now cut France, the third biggest economy in the Euro group, by one notch to AAa and affirmed that the outlook for France remains negative.

Well, as we can see there are negativities everywhere and as I said many times over the past few weeks, we are in a period of uncertainty and difficult trading conditions for the last month or so. Yet, this period of head scratching, head banging will not going away anytime soon because we are now heading to the festive season and as day go by the volumes of traders in the market will substantially drop and since there is not many bidders/sellers around we will see the spike in prices either way and expansion of spreads. Just be careful and do not overly expose and make sure use wider stop(avoid being hunt) with smaller lot size but stick to same your personal risk percentage that you are comfortable.


Impact News today:


04:30 am (NY) GBP – MPC Meeting Minutes; Public Sector Net Borrowing
08:30 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
08:45 pm (NY) CNY – HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI.


Technical analysis:


We are still holding Long GBPUSD. We went short AUDUSD 2 days ago and although prices has not came as low as the prices that we targeted 1.0340. but since market condition change we did closed out with profit. We will wait for better set up to rejoin this pair.

Today I want to bring your attention to GBPJPY. Among the Yen pair I think this pair provide a better opportunity. Keep in mind, the potential upcoming Japanese Government is willing to kill the Yen so in the medium term the Yen pairs could still going up. See chart below.

GBPJPY – daily




GBPJPY - H4





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

22 Nov myfxpedia Signals and Strategies


Monthly Summary:

Number of Trades: 16
Winning Trades: 14
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +536.2


Yesterday:


Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +37.0





Today analysis:


OK, Xmas is only a month away which most FX traders will shy away as there will be lack of activities and widen spread on most of the pairs. Today is a Thanks Giving day in the US and so do not expect lot of movement during US sessions.

Yesterday was truly a news driven day, as early in the Asian session we have news from Euro that German candidate in the Euro Group oppose the Greece bailout that is they failed to agree on Greece debt reduction package. We immediately see the Euro tanks. Then about an hour later Managing Director Christine Largarde of the IMF came out and soothing the markets with announcement “ We made some good work and we’re closing the gap, but we are not quite there yet, so it’s progress but we have to do a bit more”. That was enough for the hopeful jumped in, with anticipation of agreement will soon be reach. Another news also prompted the rally was the Cease fire between Israel and Hamas group and then came the German Chancellor commented on lower interest rates and expanding Financial Stability Fund for which could be the answer for the Greece to be able to gets its next round of bailout funds. These news of hope was enough for the depressed market to rally yesterday.

Words of caution: be careful of this relief rally, it could be just a dead cat bounces as there isn’t any concrete problem solve so far and then the fiscal cliff is still hanging in the air which could come back to have its second bites. The way I see it is that it will resume the downtrend to at least retest previous low to actually establish that is the low and then we will have a meaningful rally to the upside.


Impact News today:


03:00 am (NY) EUR – French Manufacture PMI; All day Economic Summit; Spanish 10 yr Bond Auction
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core Retail Sales


Technical analysis:


We are currently hold Long GBPUSD; Short GBPJPY.

As for the pair GBPJPY, I had amended the stop to a maximum of 3 % risk. I had have said before such that the strategy and Risk Management that I am using is that we are trading prices that is at extreme in a short space of times and the initial Risk Management is of 0.5% with a leeway of extended up to 3%. So I advise you all doing the same if you follow my signals. I had said yesterday this pair and most of the Yen cross pairs are currently in a strong uptrend but because of the overshoot in a short space of time there will be a good correction on the pair before resuming the uptrend. Now, once the high is being firm we will then scale down our stop but in the mean time we have to avoid being hunted that ‘Big Boys” using the hype to stop raid on us small fishes.

From yesterday update, I mentioned that this pair historically had twice doing the straight 7 days run and move from Band to Band (Bollinger Band). Well, in this latest run up, today would mark the 7th days and prices has now in extreme overbought and close to Major Resistance and with yesterday overshoot bullish candle that ran out of the Bollinger Band suggested of capitalisation (in a down run I call it exhaustion). So, today is the 7th day for this pair on this Band to Band move I will look forward to either a small range day or will be the start of a down move of at least 150 to 200 hundred pips or at least to the 20MA whichever come first.

Also, I will look into H1 and look for Divergence created on H1 and add on another position on this Pair. Which would then giving 3 time frames of Overbought and negative divergences on H4 and H1.

Charts below.

GBPJPY – Daily






GBPJPY - H4







The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

23 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com


Monthly Summary:

Number of Trades: 16
Winning Trades: 14
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +536.2



23 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Happy Thanks Giving to all, especially to anyone of you living in the US.

As the people in the US is having a Thanks Giving day and so we probably will have another quite day during the NY session again as most Institutions only work half day and/or head for the long weekend.

The notable movements in the currency market yesterday was the Euro which as I said yesterday, Traders are putting their hope on the Euro Groups Summit sorting out aid for Greece. As for the Yen which also put on the lowest level since last April and that was due to speculation that the upcoming election in Japan will be won by the opposition for which the have pledge to have unlimited monetary stimulus. Anyway, I think traders is running too far ahead and a pullback is a start to take effect.


Impact News today:


04:00 am (NY) EUR – German Business Climate; All day Economic Summit
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Core CPI.


Technical analysis:


We are still Holding Long GBPUSD and Short GBPJPY.

Follow up from yesterday update on GBPJPY. We now had 7 days straight up move. And with yesterday candle which close with a long bearish tail candle suggesting of possible reversal is taking place. In a strong trend, a reversal or consolidation is usually takes only 2 or 3 days before resuming the trend. This pair is obviously has been in a strong uptrend over the last 7 days so We will only look for a pullback, probably, to a retest of the breakout of the Channel. See chart below.

GBPJPY – Daily.

The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

26 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com


Monthly Summary:

Number of Trades: 20
Winning Trades: 17
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +647.2



Yesterday:






Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +138.0





26 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

Last week of the month everyone and there are plenty of speculations, hopes and nerve wrecking in the world of forex or at least, in particular, the currencies traders. So, buckle up traders, we are in for more volatility as fiscal cliff is getting closer and closer while volumes trade is getting less and less by the day approaching Xmas. On top of fiscal cliff we also have the debt crisis in Euro group where traders are now clinches on hope Greek bailout funds. Currently they have not unanimously agreed to the condition for the bailout, although they are working on it and any obstacle from one of its member will send the Euro south in a blink of an eye. Add on the Euro uncertainty we also have Spain political risk will spook the market this week if the polls on the weekend actually gave the Union Party the approval we would then probably see Spain having a referendum on Independence in the region of Catalonia. With Catalonia holding 20% of Spain GDP this could provide Prime Minister of Spain a big headache and the Euro into a tail spin again.

Anyway, observing from last Friday market behaviour, we witnessed a risk off day as people are piling in to buy into oversold shares as we saw the indices put up a healthy rally on light volumes. Noted also, last Friday the Us market only traded for ½ days and therefore, last Friday rally was on low volumes which to me is of insignificant and could potentially spell a Dead Cat Bounce.

It was an irrational market rally that help bolster the risk currencies and a rally that is totally in an inverse relation to the fundamentals. As we can see from the news release regarding the breakdown of Euro group summit after 2 days meeting and have to call it off and reschedule for sometimes next year. Yet, market and risk currencies still rally hard. Mind boggling.

Lastly, I just want to remind traders that we are approaching Xmas period and market can move very irrational due to low volumes trade and so a trade with tight stop can easily being taken out. Do not get stuck in the whip saw. Trade with same risk parameter but use wider stop with small lot size.



Impact News today:

None


Trading Positions:


Last Friday our Short sell pending on EURJPY and AUDUSD triggered and I would like to put up chart on EURJPY for you today showing you of the similarity of prices movement of this pair back in mid January 2012. It has full on similar characteristic of prices movement. See chart below.

EURJPY – Daily





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

27 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com


Monthly Summary:

Number of Trades: 22
Winning Trades: 19
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +800.3



Yesterday:





Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +126.1





27 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

There were no kick to prices in the currency market as there were little of fundamental news yesterday to actually drive the market, whichever way you look at it.

Traders were pinning hope on the positive outcome of the Euro group meeting for bailout funds. As I type we just have an announcement of the Euro Groups that the deal is done and they now have a full committee agreement to provide Greece the funding. Citing from the last paragraph of the Statement released which they now schedule to release the funds by 13th of December, but only “subject to the completion of these national procedures and following a review of the outcome of a possible debt buy-back operation by Greece”....ah I just hate the “but” thing.

Funnily enough after the new announcements of committee agreement, the Euro seems to be in a stalemate situation. Prices not shooting to the upside as expected, it’s not even move...damn. This ring true to the slogan “buy rumour – sell the fact”.

In the US we are going to have the resuming of talks of Democrats and the Republicans on the fiscal cliff and I expect a lot more head wind this time round as compare to the preliminary get together some 10 days ago. Both sides of politics are currently using technology to rally public support on the issue. Anyway, as the negotiation is going on between the 2 political parties traders will look for the outcome like hawk and this will certainly create volatility in the market. So, watch out traders.

Impact News today:

04:30 am (NY) GBP – GDP
08:30 am (NY) USD – Core Durable Goods
10:00 am (NY) USD – Consumer Confidence.




Trading Positions:


EURJPY – Daily




The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

28 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com


Monthly Summary:

Number of Trades: 23
Winning Trades: 20
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +840.3



Yesterday:





Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +40.0





28 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

The resuming of negotiation between the Democrats and the Republicans on fiscal cliff has once again trigger the nerves of traders as seen overnight during NY session.

Despite the good news Core Durable Goods Order and a jump in Consumer Confidence in the US the market dropped significantly on comments of Senator Harry Reid which stated that the talks have made “little progress”. Furthermore, there were mud throwing at each other as Senator Mitch McConnell ripped into President Obama for not just promoting his tax agenda through tech but also planning to hit the road to rally support.

In the view of traders this negotiations is truly going nowhere for the time being and it seemed as though the law makers were busy having sling shots at each other instead of negotiations to come up with a compromise on both side to avoid the cliff. Oh well, just as frustrated as it seems, let us all say.....there’s the cliff – Jump. (Joking).

The market dropped last night and so was the risk currencies, namely the AUDUSD which dropped ½ cents (50pips) from yesterday high on the negative comments.

Talk about the AUDUSD that currently is the hottest currency around due to higher interest rate which then attract traders to bank or buy into AUDUSD using Carry Trade (borrowing money from other country with low interest rate and deposit/convert into currency that pay higher interest, for example: borrowing Yen at almost 0% interest and bank in AUDUSD that own 3.25% interest).

Although the Aussie dollars being enjoying the stellar run over the past decade, it is, in my personal opinion is not sustainable for the Australian economy. Surely, the Aussie economy cannot be immune from the global melt down and currently we are seeing global competition in trades, as evident with many countries weakening their currencies in order to revive their economy through exports (A notable country that we have seen doing over and over again is Japan and for Christ sake, they even talks about currency assassination (Yen) with unlimited QE). So, what’s good for Australia if you cannot export your goods due to high Aussie dollars and yet with higher dollars will also lure away many of tourists coming into Australia and so tourism industry will certainly take a big hit also if the Australian Government, namely the RBA, not doing about it.

Now, going into December, next Tuesday we will have the RBA meeting on Rate decision. Last month they decided to keep rates steady at 3.25% and that give a big boost to the Aussie dollars. So, will they cut interest rate this time round just to give tax payers a little relief to enjoy Xmas? Well, I stick my neck to say they will cut interest rate this time round. Note also that the next RBA meeting after December meeting will be schedule on the 1st Tuesday of February. There’s no board meeting in January.


Impact News today:

10:00 am (NY) USD – New Home Sales
12:15 pm (NY) CHF – SNB Chairman Speaks
07:00 pm (NY) NZD – Business Confidence

Trading Positions:

Yesterday trade EURUSD


We also miss out on our second Pending Sell Limit on AUDUSD by about 5 pips. Chart below.



The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

29 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 25
Winning Trades: 22
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +885.6



Yesterday:

Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +45.3





29 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Traders are currently looking for, listen out to any positive spins from the authorities just to move the market and ignoring the fundamental truth of the economy. This was shown from prices action yesterday.

During the European session, majority of risk currencies was under downward pressure and this downward pressure carried on into the early US session. We saw commodity such as Gold, Silver and Oil taking a nose dive. Then came the New Home Sales release in the US which fell significantly, way below analyst estimate. But then, by about 10:30 NY times, Republican Senator Boehmer came out saying that he is optimistic that a deal with President Obama can be reached. Wow, next thing you know was like a rocket being stuck under the risk currency, namely the Aussie, the Pound and the Euro.... Senator Boehmer, what a bummer.

On the other side of the continent, Fitch rating agency also came out to warn France of its triple A rating status could be downgrade early next year if the fail to work on its debt reduction but this does not deter traders from the optimism view of Senator Boehmer which saw shares in European closing mixed, paring losses earlier in the day.

On a final note , just be careful with this hype in hope of rally. It could prove to be short live and let me tell you the reason for my arguments: Ok, suppose we have the fiscal cliff avoided but then the implementation cannot happen overnight and so the due process will take sometimes to actually implemented. Also, as President Obama have been advocated of taxing the rich and so will the riches, the Investment Funds will have to try to avoid being tax more when a new fiscal policy kicking in? What I am saying is they will use this hype and push the market along, watching it rally and then when they smell of fishy policy that’s going hurt their bottom line about to be enforce, surely, they will sell out their holdings, stocks, options what have you, just to avoid from paying higher tax. Off course, this rally could also prove to be a genuine rally but I just can’t help being a contrarian and believe me this sort of contrarian thinking have many times save me from banging my head to the wall.


Impact News today:

05:30 am (NY) GBP – King Speaks
08:30 am (NY) USD - Prelim GDP; Unemployment Claims
10:00 am (NY) USD – Pending Home Sales.

Trading Positions:

We are now only 2 days away from end of November and with a considerable good pips gain for the month, although not as spectacular as last month where we gained 1432 pips but we are not far from it.

Yesterday I added on another small short position on AUDUSD as I do not believe this rally is genuine when we have commodity being smash across the board and the Aussie economy is the resources base and so when the technical prices rally that is not in sync with the fundamentals I stand to chose the fundamental as reality will eventually come back and bite a big chunk out of the Aussie. Also, next week, Tuesday, we will have the RBA decision on Interest Rates. You know my thought on it.

We also traded EURJPY yesterday for a small gain during Asian sessions. Below is the chart of EURJPY with explanations of to why I took the trade.

EURJPY - H1




The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

30 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 25
Winning Trades: 22
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +885.6



Yesterday:

30 Nov 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Last day of trading for the month folks an spin doctors on the fiscal cliff issue aren’t making it any easy to sooth the already trouble markets.

The day before we had optimisms on both sides of politics then, guess what? The very next day (yesterday) they are throwing mud at each other, accusing each other for not putting up any workable solutions and further adding to the contradiction of what he said the day before, Senator Boehmer this time round saying “there is no substantive progress in two weeks of talks”. So, the day before we had him being optimistic about the deal could be reach and yesterday we had no real progress so far. Gosh, make up your mind Senator.

Anyway, let leave the Senators alone to collect their thoughts and focus on our trades. Yesterday, we have a mixed bag of prices movement most of the risk currencies initially tank after the comments from the policy makers in the US but soon recovered to actually put on a modest gain. The only risk currency that bucked the trend and went south all the way through out NY session was the Aussie dollars......surprise, surprise. Well, if you did read my update yesterday there should be no surprise in that as we all know that when we have an inverse relationship between fundamentals and technical, the fundamentals will eventually prevail.

From yesterday prices movement of the Euro continent, namely Euro and the Pound, that were bullish I can only fathom it was the case of good news from the Italian Bond Auction which came in as the lowest borrowing cost for Italy in the last 18 months and thus, giving a boost to the Euro. While in the UK the consumer confidence also lift unexpectedly and that reflect through the GBPUSD pair which pushed higher.


Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30 am (NY) CAD – GDP
08:00 pm (NY) CNY - Manufacturing

Trading Positions:

Yesterday I gave a brief talk about the AUDUSD, about the Inverse relation between fundamental and technical. It seems that with yesterday prices action the fundamental has catch up. From the chart below you will see that the pair is now under pressure of moving lower but expect high level of support at around 1.0350/80. On the fundamental side for this pair I would like to bring your attention to the price action of this pair. As we seen on the chart this run down from yesterday could be the case that traders are starting to pricing in the upcoming Tuesday Interest Rate cut from the Reserve Bank of Australia and as I have said in many updates this month, I still hold that belief, that Rate will be cut in December, by how far? I have no idea but would opt for 25 basis point (0.25%) and if they decided to go for 50 basis point to give Australian an early Xmas then traders, watch out for parity in AUDUSD.

AUDUSD – Daily.




The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

03 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 27
Winning Trades: 24
Losing Trades: 3
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +938.8



Yesterday:





Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +53.2






03 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


First day of the month and last month of the year folks and before I go any further I just want to add words of caution regarding trading for this month.

Since this is the biggest festive season month around the world and many of institutions, banks are winding up for the year as we head for Xmas and New Year. As we approaching Xmas the trade volumes will be dropped significantly and trading condition will be very erratic. It is therefore not to trade with guts feel and not being trigger happy as those sort of behaviours will sucks up your trading capitals so quickly before you know it. The erratics that I am talking about is the jumpy behaviour of prices movement and the spreads that can be so wide that you might have not seen before that can trigger your stop and take you out of the trade even the actual prices have never been there. So, please trade with caution and if you ever feel the need to trade, my advice is – better not to trade at all and if you have to have a pulse on the market then it is better to trade with small lot size and widen your stop but keep it within your risk parameter. Best of all – Stop Trading a week before Xmas and enjoy Xmas, New Year with your love ones and come back on the 2nd week of January when markets fully functions. Remember, market is always there for you to trade so only trade when the market condition is ready and you are feeling good and ready.

Now let see what do we have in store for the market over the coming days?

In the US, Jobs reports, the Non-Farm Payrolls and the Fiscal Cliff negotiations will be of focus and prices of USD be certainly be dominated by those news. Out of all those sensitive news the fiscal cliff negotiations will certainly play a key part in day to day news of likely outcome. So far, the negotiations has go nowhere but traders/investors alike will look out for with much anticipation of all to speculate on prices. While in Europe, the ongoing saga of Greece debts, bailout funds will not going away anytime soon. Although we had agreement of bailout fund to Greece from the European members, it is not certain until Greece actually being hand out with the funds.

In Asia, Japan is getting closer to have its crucial election and it seems riskier to actually short the Yen pairs as of now from the survey they do expect the opposition to take over the reign and they, opposition, have many times put forward of their intention to assassinate the Yen with unlimited QE.

In Australia, in the early Asia trading session we had have dismal Retail Sales, horrible jobs ads and the AUDUSD tank 33 pips on the news in an hour and traded below 1.0400. The sinking would have been worse if traders were not expect of better Manufacturing figure to come out of China in the next hour. As expected, the Manufacturing figure came out of China painting a much improve condition in the Chinese economy, the AUDUSD quickly change course and at time of writing (typing) the prices of AUDUSD traded at 1.0418.

In my personal opinion, and I have many time saying it over the last week or two, I tend to the view of RBA to lower Interest Rate tomorrow and today from the release of Retail Sales and Jobs ads has reinforce my view. Ah well, We just have to wait and see.

Impact News today:

04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacturing PMI
10:00 am (NY) USD – Manufacturing PMI
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Building Approvals
10:30 pm (NY) AUD – Cash Rate; RBA Rate Statement.

Trading Positions:

Last Friday, in the early London session we exited our positions in AUDUSD for nice profit. We then put in a pending sell order as we expected prices to retrace before resume the down trend. We were right, prices did retrace and resume the downtrend but, guess what? We missed it by a hair of a margin. Our pending sell order stands @ 1.0448 and prices went up to 1.04466. If any of you were at the terminal and took on the trade. Well done.

I now have 3 orders in place for this pair. From price action this morning and with momentum being oversold on H1 I look for prices to retraces toward the MA20 on H4 before resume the downtrend. I might consider to lower my entry number 1 if I see the downward pressure is strong. Attach are daily and H4 and H1 charts. Enjoy.

AUDUSD Daily




AUDUSD H1






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

04 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 2
Winning Trades: 1
Losing Trades: 1
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +13.3



Yesterday:


Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +13.3




04 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


The Euro suddenly came back to life and kicking hard yesterday breaking above the psychological barrier of 1.30. Is this rally genuine? So let dissect into yesterday news and see what the reason behind the rally:

Firstly, we have the Greece government came out offered to buy back Bonds with expiration on the offer by 7th December. Although the offer of buy-back is somewhat about 60% haircut to the original Bond rate and yet the market rally due to better than market expectation. Oh, am I missing something? Is it the haircut to the initial Bond rate and the market love it....geez, Mr. Market must have expecting of getting nothing out of Greece. For that I just can’t wait to see the next round of Greece Bond auction, just wondering any gutsy investor(s) out there would buy into Greece Bond in the future? Ah, I forgot, maybe the European Central Bank (ECB) would smilingly put up both hands.

Next, came Germany Chancellor Angela Merkel opens up the can of worm, saying that Germany may ultimately accept a write off on Greek debt. Wow, what an astute investor decision that is, I cannot think of any sound investor would even contemplating of thinking about lending money to a debt ridden country or person and then announcing of probable writing off in near future. This surely can only be done by politicians since it’s not their hard earn dollars, ultimately, it’s tax payers money that they are dealing with. I just am gobsmack.

Finally, we have Spain coming out asking the ECB to bailout their banks and the euro rally some more..hahahaha. Note, Spain only request for bailout on their distress banks and not sovereign bailout. I guessed if it was actually the sovereign bailout request was make the euro would rally much harder. Damn, this is truly confusing for my cumquat little brain and so I thought...if one day Italy and then France came out requesting for bailout then the euro will probably shoot over the roof and out into the un-chart territory. Damn, that must be exciting.

Any, it just too hard to dissect into this awkward behaviour for my little cumquat brain and so we leave it there. I suppose the only thing we can do is to manage our trades and be patience until opportunity arrived and in the mean time we just have to sooth ourselves such that, the market can be irrational at time and the irrationality can be much longer than one’s pocket can bear.

At time of writing we are now only 2 ½ hrs away from the Reserve Bank of Australia Rate decision and I guess you all know my view on this as I have said it so many times in my daily updates. The only cloud that I can see that would make the RBA members to think twice in dropping rate was the much improve China Manufacturing report that released yesterday. Well, we just have to wait and see. It’s either our short positions in AUDUSD and AUDNZD will turn into candy or lemons, we will know in about 3 hrs time.

Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) EUR – Spanish Unemployment Change
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Construction PMI
09:00 am (NY) CAD – BOC Rate Statement; Overnight Rate
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – GDP

Trading Positions:

AUDUSD – H4. This pair is currently being under short term downward pressure and trades within the downward channel. We took an initial short position yesterday.




AUDNZD –Daily. This pair has been in a major downtrend since November 2011. It reached the low 1.2370 in last October 2012. This low has not been retested to confirm actual low. Over the last 2 weeks it has showing sign of weakness and upon break the upchannel to the downside will ultimately seeing the pair retesting the last low.




EURCAD – H4. Yesterday we took an early entry (although, we already have a higher pending sell order) due to initial price behaviour at the 1st resistance (eclipse). Unfortunately, with much “excited” news came out of the Euro zone the prices continued its upward momentum and also triggered our initial Pending Sell limit that has been set sometimes last week. From chart below, you can see that prices is well extended on the 4 hr chart with momentum being overbought as well as showing Negative Divergences on H4 and H1. We will look initially for price to pull back to the 3rd degree uptrend line as target 1.






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

05 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 2
Winning Trades: 1
Losing Trades: 1
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +13.3



05 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Well, I was right all along for the last 3 weeks or so saying the RBA will cut Rate in December but then the Cut did not far enough to even cut through the tofu and that reflect in the rise of the AUD after the new released. The decision to cut rate was a right decision but it just a bit too late and not deep enough for the Australians to actually go out spending for Xmas and New Year. I suspect the RBA is playing the game of wait and see approach. Just as I have said yesterday there was sign of recovery in China on better than expect Manufacturing report and so the RBA keep their head in the sand, blocking their ears from the struggling average Australians as well as suffering businesses that has been calling out to Government to do more to save businesses to stay in Australia.

This early Asian session when listening to the Radio 2GB and the interview of Australian Treasurer Wayne Swan and when he said that the Australian economy is sound and strong and is resilient to the world economies turmoil I could not believe it. Where in the world is the Treasurer live in? He must be living in Wayne World I supposed. Dear Mr. Wayne Swan, Please get down to earth, particularly Australia, and see the battlers, the companies that is going out of businesses. Within this year we had have Darrell Lea Chocolates, an 87 years old company has to call in Administrations, then Colorado retailers and last week we had Rosella, an Australian icon of about 130 years old going into receiverships. And what about mining companies that has to shut down mines because it’s no longer economical to dig up. Anyway, final word, Get away from your Wayne World and meet the reality hey.

As I type, we just have the Aussie GDP figure came out that is 0.5%, that is below forecast. So far this week, news from Australia is showing cracks in the Aussie economy. Early in the week we had a drop in Retail Sales; big dropped in Building Approvals, a Rate cut and now less than expected GDP. Let see what tomorrow during Asian session will bring with the Australian Unemployment Rate.

In Europe, the pound retreats a little after the fall in Construction PMI news while the Euro charging on from the optimism of Greece quick fix.....I must be dreaming.

In the United State of A. The main concern and look out for any beats is the Fiscal Cliff negotiation between Democrats and Republicans – so far, it’s go nowhere.


Impact News today:

04:30 am (NY) GBP – GDP Service PMI
07:30 am (NY) GBP – Autumn Forecast Statement
08:15 am (NY) USD – ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
10:00 am (NY) USD – Non-Manufacture PMI
03:00 pm (NY) NZD – Official Cash Rate
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Employment Change; Unemployment


Trading Positions:

Today I would like to put again the Daily chart on AUDUSD. See explanations on chart.





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

06 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 7
Winning Trades: 6
Losing Trades: 1
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +143.3



Yesterday


Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +131.0


06 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:


Instead of recapping of what going on around the financial markets, today let us talk about our Trade Management as It has brought to our attention that some of the members are curious in regarding to the way we manage our trades.

First and foremost we are Professional Traders, we trade for a living and above all we don’t dream of hitting Jackpot overnight or getting rich in a short period of times. It’s impossible for that to ever happen to anyone that claim as Trader., believe me, it’s a long winding road.

As Traders, we at myfxpedia are strictly adhered to our Risk Control as we understand to have a successful business we must therefore have a sound Risk Management. With that in mind, we so far has never risk more than 5% of our Trading Capitals, for the records, our Draw Down, up to now has never exceeding 3% even when we hold more than 5 positions at any one time. Normally, we try to have only 4 trades open at any one time, beyond that, it’s just too intensive to manage. But, sometimes our Pending orders got triggered and thus we have more than the desire number of open trades. As soon as we have more than 4 open positions we will immediately assessing the situations and scaling back on our holdings to bring it back to a manageable numbers as we do not want to have ourselves ballooning our Risk parameter. Sometimes, it meant we have to close the positions and took profit a tad too early, so be it.

Here at myfxpedia, we are being realistic and only aiming for a return of + 3% of profit per month, that equate to over 36% per year. That let me assure you, no banks or financial institutions would give you that kind of return, especially during this calamity of financial debt being built up around the world. With aiming of 3% plus per month we have so far achieve that target consistently over the last 5 months since we go public and have our records verified.

So, if you follow our signals and happy with 3% plus profit per month then don’t feel bad if we don’t milk all the pips that we supposed to have got. In hindsight, it was not a good decision to have close a winning position too early but then who would say that it won’t turn and go against us. Remember, we can’t control price movement, the only thing that we can take control of is our Money Management and ultimately, Capital Preservation with sound Risk Control, culminate with well thought out trading plan is the only way to stay in business, especially, when you trade for a living.

As a Professional Trader, we trade with the notion of: No Greed, No fear.


Impact News today:

03:15 am (NY) CHF – CPI
07:00 am (NY) GBP – Asset Purchase Facility; Official Bank Rate
07:45 am (NY) EUR – Minimum Bid Rate
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Building Permits
08:50 am (NY) ECB Press Conference
08:50 am (NY) USD – Unemployment Claims
10:00 am (NY) CAD – PMI
07:30 pm (NY) AUD – Trade Balance.



Trading Positions:

Yesterday, during the NY session, at one point we were holding 7 opens positions. We then immediately did our best to scaling down the numbers of open positions. We finally closed 4 positions with 1 position AUDNZD which now looked as though it was a bad decision to bank profit too early. The reason, aside from our explanation above, was the fact that NZD will have a high impact news to be released and since we are no “news” trader we chose to bank our profit and stand on the sideline.

Below is the chart of AUDNZD – H4 for which we banked our small profit. The decision arrived when prices were at major uptrend line support and high impact news pending. We exited.





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

07 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 10
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +160.7



Yesterday

Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: +16.4


07 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:



After more than 3 weeks of stacking up a pre-Xmas rally (on stocks and risk currencies) on hope of Fiscal Cliff in the US will eventually be solved before the New Year and, adding on to the rally was the optimism on Greece inititive in curbing its ballooning debt. The market has eventually taking a breather yesterday with most of risk currencies shredding off their gains earlier in the day during the ECB President Draghi speaks.

The currency market volatility has been boiled this week and I suspect it will continue into next week before everyone packing up for Xmas and New Year celebration. As time running out for the Fiscal Cliff issue to be resolved there will be traders who probably will bank their profits before heading for holiday if there isn’t any genuine deal being cut between the Democrats and the Republicans. As we get closer to the 15 December and with no definite solution the markets, the risk currencies could be in for a nasty surprise, that is a sharp fall in the markets and along with it are the risk currencies.

As always the first week, first Friday of the month we have slew of high impact news the currencies can go either way depending on the result of the news released. The highly traded news of all, once a month, is the Non-Farm Payroll that takes place at 8:30 am NY session. Unless you are news driven trader I advise you to stand on the sideline, turn off your screen and have times out with friends, family.


Impact News today:

03:00 am (NY) CHF – Foreign Currency Reserves
04:30 am (NY) GBP – Manufacture Production
05:00 am (NY) EUR – ECB President Draghi Speaks
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Employment Change; Unemployment Rate
08:30 am (NY) USD – Non-Farm Payroll; Unemployment Change
09:55 am (NY) USD – Prelim Consumer Sentiment.




Trading Positions:

We re-entered NZDUSD short position base on H4 Candle formation when prices being rejected and the Major Resistance, also Prices at top Channels. We will look for prices to initially pullback to the bottom of the sub channel as target 1 (which also is about the 20MA support)and target 2 is the bottom of major up channel on Daily chart. We entered with reduced lot size and wider stop but keep our risk parameter the same.

NZDUSD – Daily





NZDUSD – Daily






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

11 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 10
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 2
Total Pip Gain/Loss: +160.7



11 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:



Yesterday was a range bound trading in the FX market as there were lack of impact news and as times pass, Traders are on edges as optimism on the Fiscal Cliff will soon be resolved.

The only new during the weekend and early Asian session that would have carry some weigh would have been the resignation of Italian Prime Minister, Mario Monti. Then guess what? Silvio Berlusconi, a colourful ex-PM of Italy just about 14 months ago came out putting his hand up wanting to run for Office again. With this sort of new under normal circumstances would have speculate on the market regard the Euro as we all know Berlusconi with his colourful remarks to the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, regarding her sex appeal.....hahahaha...”we are going to have another bunga bunga party and you are not invited Angela” – Just Joking.

Anyway, the market was mute about the news yesterday as we suspect all eyes and ears are now looking and listening out for what Bernanke has to say on Wednesday in regarding to the Fiscal Cliff and what the FED can do in their power to support the market. We recalled from last month FED meeting Bernanke had actually stating somewhat that the FED has very limited ammunitions if Fiscal Cliff isn’t resolve. This time around he probably will be more blunt on the issue which could in turn spook the market for a sharp sell off before we stack up for an end of year rally.


Impact News today:

05:00 am (NY) EUR – German Economic Sentiment
08:30 am (NY) CAD – Trade Balance
08:30 am (NY) USD – Trade Balance
11:30 pm (NY) AUD – RBA Governor Glen Stevens Speaks.


Trading Positions:

We are in an extreme difficult period for trading as volumes start wearing thin and the nervousness on impending news is agonising. In brief, market currently does not have define direction and with this sort of uncertainty as we are heading for the Festive season we just have to control our risk, not to greedy for profit or fear of losing. We have to learn to be happy with our profit and cutting/accepting loss as Mr. Market allows us.

Remember, in this Trading Business, The Winner is the Best Loser. Such a oxymoron statement but hold true to the core when comes to think of it – The Winner is the one that cut loss early and therefore is the Best Loser as you lose the least when market goes against you.

The AUDUSD Charts below illustrate our positions. We have now scaled down our stop @ 1.0520 and also lowering our profit target as market condition has now change.

AUDUSD – Daily.




AUDUSD – H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

12 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 15
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 7
Total Pip Gain/Loss: -243.1


Yesterday

Yesterday Pip Gain/Loss: -278.2


12 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

At start the European session yesterday we got the unexpected growth of German Zew index that help boost the Euro to the upside and then came the confirmation of the Swiss National Bank that will charge interest on the money deposited and this again help the cross pair EURCHF further. Beside that there was no actual exciting news that paint a rosy picture at all for the global financial market.

In fact, we had much worse news than first thought but market just ignored any depressing new for the time being. It’s Xmas probably. Anyone think this market is being manipulated? Here, we have US trade deficit being widen up to 4.9% to $42.2 Billion, yet market rally. Oh well, they are under a mountain of debt anyway so a little more would mean nothing to anyone, I suppose.

Personally, I do think the market is being manipulated and it does seem as though a perfect storm is in the making and over the coming months, I say within 3 to 6 months time we are going to have a crash or at least a deep correction before a monster crash brought upon us. Well, let see what the next 6 months bring.


Impact News today:

04:30 am (NY) GBP – Claimant Count Change
12:30 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Statement; Economic Projections
02:15 pm (NY) USD – FOMC Press Conference

Trading Positions:

We were stop out of our long in AUDUSD, the prices is very extended but because of trading condition for this festive season is very unpredictable so We rather cut our lost and patiently wait for prices getting to the extreme level then we will rejoin. As we have many times saying that this December month trading is very unpredictable and it’s getting worse as we draw near Xmas. So, remember if you have to trade for whatever the reason, only trade with small lot sizes and prepare to widen your stop as the spread will certainly wider than you ever seen.

Below are charts of NZDUSD. This pair has been over extended and at around this level and up 86 level which we would identify as a Terminator Zone. So, we are sell into this pair base on Divergence on H4. I have another pending sell order in which it could have one more leg up on H1 to create a Negative Divergence with over bought on H1 which in turn will be in tandem with H4 for a down turn.


NZDUSD – Daily


NZDUSD –H4






The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

13 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 15
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 7
Total Pip Gain/Loss: -243.1


13 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

The only news that actually move the FX market yesterday was from the FOMC statement and the speech of Big Ben. Ironically, the market was actually excited to know that the FED willing to go further into debt and keep that printing machines going without any indication of when to stop. Wow, that’s surely a good piece of news, get my drift? You see, they are in a deep hole of debts and the only way that they can think of to get out of that tunnel of debts is to dig a deeper tunnel of debts, then there they might find some lights on the other side of the tunnel. Such thinking shouldn’t it deserve Nobel Prize anyone? But then, who cares, obviously Mr. Market doesn’t care.

To sum up of what big Ben had said yesterday:

1) Interest Rate stay low, closer to zero until at least 2015
2) Reiterated that they had been buying $40 billions/month of mortgage back security. In turn, we see a boost in housing prices
3) Will start buying $45 billions/month of Treasury Bonds that is buying back their own debts
4) A rosy picture being painted of growth and expect growth of 2.3% to 3% and will rise to 3% to 3.5% in 2014.
5) Stern warning to the White House of Fiscal Cliff such that the FED has limited room to move, in other words, no ammunition to offset the damage if Fiscal Cliff isn’t resolve by the deadline.

Just to see how jumpy traders are we can observe through the S&P index – as soon as the words Fiscal Cliff mentioned and came the warning from big Ben the S&P wiped out all of its gained early in the day to close in the red.

Anyway, what we can see is that the market has been boiled with optimisms around Fiscal Cliff being avoided and so the run up in equities and risk currencies. So, now we have the market being stretched, risk currencies being extended to the upside. It certainly looks like a set up for perfect storm and we believe the big player with smart money are lurking around waiting for any sign of surprise to pounce on.

Let us look at a few majors and strategise of how to play or look out for, for this festive seasons:

CAD - It is vulnerable and is depends on US demand, also, its economy is showing sign of weakness.

EUR – The situation in Europe is still in dire state and vulnerable to the downside. It is a very sensitive currency to trade as it is news driven: good news from US and Euro group will drive the pair higher but any bad news from US or Greece will see the pair running for cover.

JPY – In a risk off circumstances, JPY is still being considered as safe currency. Therefore, any sign of pessimism will support the Yen against USD while optimism will push USDJPY higher.

GBP – Mostly will be traded in an inverse relation to USDCHF, so this currency actually need the strength of the US market, in turn a weak USD.

NZD - This pair is more related to the US news than AUD.

AUD – Mostly depend on news from the Asia pacific countries, especially China but will also move in according to US news

Impact News today:

03:30 am (NY) CHF – Rates; Monetary Policy Statement; Press Conference
08:30 am (NY) USD – Core Retail Sales; PPI; Retail Sales; Unemployment Claims
08:45 pm (NY) CNY – HSBC Manufacturing.


Trading Positions:

Yesterday we added on another 2 pairs EURUSD and EURGBP as both triggered during big Ben speaks. Below are charts of EURUSD and EURGBP.

EURUSD – Daily.



EURUSD – H4



EURGBP – H4



EURGBP – H1





The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.

 

[Amelia]

14 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com

Monthly Summary ( click here to update online ):

Number of Trades: 15
Winning Trades: 8
Losing Trades: 7
Total Pip Gain/Loss: -243.1


14 Dec 2012 Daily review by myfxpedia.com:

After six straight days of neglecting bad news and had risk on, the market finally break the bull stride yesterday as we had a risk off day. Well, it’s getting closer to Xmas and surely many traders that are heading for holiday, enjoying the festive season would probably want to keep their powder dry.

In the US news release yesterday, we have had better than expected news with the retails jumps and a drop in unemployment claims and yet this does not excite Mr. Market one bit, worse it went the other way. Geez, this is confusing, we rally on bad news and shy way on good news.......so true for the term “reverse psychology”.

On the other side of the continent, the Rating Agency, S&P, as according to CNBC came out with a revise outlook for the UK from being “Stable” to “Negative” and that has somehow put pressure on the Pounds as we can see the Pounds being weaken among the cross pairs.

In Asia Pacific region, in particularly, Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia is being told by Central Bankers around the world ( RBA told intervention necessary to dampen $A | News | Business Spectator ) that if the RBA wants to lower the value of the Aussie dollars the only way it can do that is to seriously consider a heavy handed intervention since gradually cutting Interest Rate, perhaps closer to the level of other nations, which is almost close to zero will not do the job of stop the rise of the AUD. Gradually lower Interest Rate certainly won’t cut through the tofu, mustard...whatever have you, as we have seen that early in the month of December. It’s quite disturbing to know that, Officials from countries with bad banking system telling the RBA what to do when they can’t even manage their own banking system, maybe they have a point but damn, give us a break.
A few hours ago, reporting from CNBC that Senator Boehmer is on his way to the White House to meet President Obama. So, we would likely have some sort of new that would likely drive the market shortly or later today or by the weekend latest. In a nut case scenario, we don’t think Senator Boehmer just jump in a car for a drive to the White House, picking up President Obama and went for a drive hey, and drive they went....”off the cliff”.
Anyway, on a serious note, we certainly think that solution will be reach somehow, somewhat and then both parties would able to come out declaring victory. Note, the Fiscal Cliff solution is not the issue as there will be a solution, an agreement will be reach. The issue lies within the quality of the deal and an early deal without thorough assessment will only create havoc later on. So, if we are going to have an early limited deal just to calm investors/traders then the like reaction on FX market would be: a fall in USD and a relief rally on risk currencies initially and then the USD will be strengthen once again when market resume after New Year. As for Comprehensive deal is to be reach, we are not at all optimist that it could be finalised before the year end. Let leave it as that and see what they have to say about their get together today.

Impact News today:

03:30 am (NY) EUR – German Manufacturing
08:30 am (NY) USD – Core CPI.


Trading Positions:

Since we entered EURUSD yesterday, so far on the H1 it has formed triple tops. Prices currently building either a flag and then a down move. Or, it could retest the tops or even a bit higher to create continuous Negative Divergence then a down move. Chart below.

EURUSD – H1.








The information and opinions in this report are for general information use only and are not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any currency or CFD contract. All opinions and information contained in this report are subject to change without notice. This report has been prepared without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any particular recipient. Any references to historical price movements or levels is informational based on author’s analysis and we do not represent or warranty that any such movements or levels are likely to reoccur in the future. While the information contained herein was obtained from sources believed to be reliable, author does not guarantee its accuracy or completeness, nor does author assume any liability for any direct, indirect or consequential loss that may result from the reliance by any person upon any such information or opinions. Foreign Exchange and other leveraged products involves significant risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Increasing leverage increases risk. Before deciding to trade forex, you should carefully consider your financial objectives, level of experience and risk appetite.