Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Mat Hold" is in progress
30 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The price has been rising since a “Tweezers” formed on last Friday. It’s likely that we have a “Mat Hold” pattern in progress. The upper resistance is still on the table. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s an “Engulfing Bullish” at the last low. Yesterday’s candle broke the 144 Moving Average line, so today's candle is probably going to be bullish as well.

There're a “Morning Star” and an “Engulfing Bullish”, which led to the current upward movement. A reversal “Deliberation” pattern hasn't been confirmed. We haven’t got any reversal pattern so far and it’s an opportunity for buyers to go on until any bearish pattern arrives.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8437

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for March 31
30 March 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index returned to 8-month lows, where it fell after the Federal Reserve’s March meeting as Janet Yellen said that the Fed should be cautious in raising rates because of external risks including low oil prices and slower growth abroad. Chicago Fed President Charles Evans followed the same line on Wednesday.On Thursday we’ll hear from New York Fed president Dudley at 09:00 GMT. Dudley tended to be mildly dovish, will his comments echo those of Yellen? According to ADP employment report, the number of employed people rose by 200K in March vs. the forecast of 195K increase, though the previous reading was revised down from 214K to 205K. The release was mildly positive for the greenback.

EUR/USD met resistance at 1.1340. Finally, there will be news from the euro area. Watch German retail sales at 06:00 GMT and the regions flash inflation figures at 09:00 GMT (better forecasts). Support is at 1.1250/15. Above 1.1340 there may be a rally to 1.1375, 1.1400 and even 1.1460.

The Bank of England’s Governor Mark Carney will speak at 07:00 GMT. The pound looks vulnerable as the latest opinion polls showed the number of Brexit supporters increased further. Moreover, Carney will probably not welcome high levels of British currency. Also watch British current account and final GDP at 08:30 GMT. Resistance for GBP/USD is at 1.4435/50 and 1.4500. Support is at 1.4350 and 1.4285.

USD/JPY tested 112.00, but then recovered to 112.50. Japanese industrial production fell by 6.2% in February. This is the biggest decline since March 2011 earthquake. More weak data are expected from Japan later this week. The pair could recover to 113.00. Next resistance is at 113.50.

AUD/USD ran into resistance at 0.7700 and is vulnerable for correction to 0.7600/7590. Next support is at 0.7530. Canadian January GDP is due at 12:30 GMT. USD/CAD has support at 1.2975, but below may slide to 1.2830. Resistance is at 1.3130.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8442

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "V-Top" frightened the bulls away
31 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price faced a resistance at 1.1341, which brought a “V-Top” pattern and a bearish movement afterwards. It’s likely that the market is going to reach a support at 1.1273 near the up-trend line. If we see any kind of pullback from here, then a new stage of bullish rally will be possible, so we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.1376 .

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair found a resistance at 1.1376, which led to the current decline. The price is likely going to achieve a support at 1.1259 in the short term. If sellers be stopped here, then buyers will have an opportunity to come back to the market. If so, a support area between the levels 1.1364 – 1.1376 is going to be reached soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8445

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: "Double Top" stopped the rise
31 March 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a “Double Top” pattern, which led to the current downward movement in a range of support zone 1.4343 – 1.4305. It’s likely to see the market even lower, so a support area between the 89 Moving Average and the level at 1.4282 is probably going to be reached soon. If a pullback arrives, then it'll be a chance for bulls to come back to the market. If so, they are likely going to try to achieve a resistance area at 1.4436 – 1.4502.

The price has been declining since a resistance at 1.4468 was reached. Moreover, we've got a “Double Top” pattern as well, so the pair is likely going to get a support at 1.4259. If sellers be stopped here, then buyers will probably try to reach a resistance area at 1.4436 – 1.4468.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8446

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" indicates a path
31 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The pair has been rising and we've got a possible “Three Methods” pattern in progress. At the same time, it’s a likely possible to see a bearish pattern at the nearest resistance line. If so, a local downwards correction is going to begin. As we can see on the Daily chart, yesterday’s candle closed above the 144 Moving Average, so today's candle is likely going to end at the nearby resistance line.

We've got a bullish movement on the one-hour chart. The 13 Moving Average acts as a support, which brought a pullback a couple of hour ago. Yesterday's “Harami” pattern wasn’t confirmed, so bulls have an opportunity to continue their rally until any bearish pattern arrives.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8452

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Hammer" points to a possible correction
31 March 2016
Galina Svetlova

The price has landed on the nearest support line. We haven’t got any reversal patterns so far, but the last bullish candles could be a sign for a local upward correction. If we see a pullback from the upper Moving Averages, then the price is likely going to decline again. As we can see on the Daily chart, here's an “Engulfing Bearish” on the 13 Moving Average, so today's candle is probably going to be a bearish one.

The main trend on the one-hour chart is bearish, but we've got a “Harami” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local minimums. At the same time, the price hasn't broke the highs of two “Three Methods” patterns, so the possible rise is likely going to be just a local correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8453

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: buy target – 1.1500
31 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD approaching resistance level 1.1380
-Next buy target – 1.1500

EUR/USD continues to rise inside the (c)-wave of the minor ABC correction 2 from the start of this month. The active (c)-wave earlier reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.1150 and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp (a)-wave. The price today broke above the resistance level 1.13420, which stopped the aforementioned (a)-wave.

EUR/USD is currently approaching the resistance level 1.1380 (which stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) in February). If the price breaks above 1.1380 – the pair can then rise to the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.1500.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8454

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/USD: buy target - 0.7000
31 March 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/USD broke pivotal resistance level 0.6860
-Next buy target - 0.7000

NZD/USD recently broke above the pivotal resistance level 0.6860 (which had stopped previous waves 3, (ii), (A) and (i), as can be seen from the daily NZD/USD chart below). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse waves (iii) and 3 – which belong to the intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of January.

NZD/USD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (C) toward the next buy target at the round resistance level 0.7000. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the aforementioned price level 0.6860.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8455

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 1
31 March 2016
By Kira Iukhtenko

Fed’s dovish comments at the beginning of the week worsened the market sentiment towards the US Dollar. On Thursday, increased unemployment claims added pressure to the greenback ahead of the most expected release of the week – March labor market data on Friday. We believe the US currency could get a short-term bullish impulse from the improved average hourly earnings reading, but the mid-term forecast remains bearish.

EUR/USD extends the upside, reaching 1.1300 on Thursday. A pullback could happen from these levels, but next week we target at least 1.1500 for the pair. Key support is seen at 1.1300.

GBP/USD reversed from the 1.4500 resistance, showing unwillingness to break above the potential “head-and-shoulders” neckline. Daily candlesticks on Wednesday and on Thursday are a great illustration of the growing bearish pressure. However, on Friday the pair could get a short-term lift from the UK Manufacturing PMI reading (forecast – upbeat).

Meanwhile, USD/JPY stepped down to 112.15. Break below 112.00 could open the way to 110.00 next week. AUD/USD has finally reached 0.7700 and remains strongly bullish. China’s manufacturing indices on Friday could serve a perfect trigger for a new rally.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8457

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Pennant" strengthened bulls' pressure
1 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has found a resistance at 1.1409, which led to the current correction. Therefore, in the short term it's likely that the market is going to achieve the next upper levels such as a resistance at 1.1436. If buyers be stopped here, then a downward correction will have a chance to begin.

We've got a “V-Top” pattern on the one-hour chart, so the price is declining. Considering a possible “Pennant” pattern, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1409 – 1.1436. If we see a pullback somewhere from here, then the pair will probably start a correction towards a support area at 1.1364 – 1.1341.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8461

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF: sell targets - 0.9550 and 0.9500
1 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF broke support zone
-Next sell targets - 0.9550 and 0.9500

USD/CHF recently broke below the support zone lying at the intersection of the pivotal support level 0.9670 (which stopped the previous intermediate (C)-wave in the middle of February, as can be seen below) and the support trendline of the wide daily down channel from the end of last November. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3- which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction ②.

USD/CHF is likely to fall to the next sell targets at the support levels 0.9550 and 0.9500 (low of the previous correction 4 from last October). Strong resistance now stands at 0.9670.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8463[/IMG]

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/CAD: buy target – 0.9050
1 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/CAD rising inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next buy target – 0.9050

NZD/CAD continues to rise inside the intermediate impulse wave (3) – which started earlier – when the price reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8800, lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate impulse wave (1) from the middle of September. The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9050 (which reversed the price sharply earlier this week, as can be seen below).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8464

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 5
4 April 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

The US dollar’s decline was tempered by good economic data released on Friday, but the dovish words by Janet Yellen still affect American currency. On Tuesday pay some attention to US trade balance at 12:30 GMT and ISM non-manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD keeps consolidating around 1.1380 after its thrust to the upside at the end of March. There was news about tensions between Greece and the IMF, though the impact on the euro wasn’t high. The euro area’s Sentix investor confidence index increased marginally to 5.7 from the previous 5.5, but below market's expectations of 6.9. Producer prices declined more than forecast. On Tuesday Germany will release factory orders data at 06:00 GMT (good forecast). All in all, there are buyers for the euro. Increase above 1.1440 should open the way to 1.1500. Support is at 1.1355 and 1.1300.

The Reserve Bank of Australia will announce its decision at 04:30 on Tuesday. The most interesting thing will be the RBA’s comments on the levels of Australian dollar. AUD/USD rose by almost 8% since the last meeting of the central bank. Although, the recent data from China and Australia were rather good, there’s a good chance that the regulator will try to make Aussie go down a bit, especially taking into account the fact that the Federal Reserve is now less hawkish. Support is at 0.7590 and 0.7550. Resistance is at 0.7680 (March 18 high).

USD/JPY is still vulnerable for more declines to 111.00/110.60. Japanese Prime Minister is expected to outline the specifics of budget at a cabinet meeting tomorrow and there may be talk of fiscal stimulus, which can benefit the yen. According to the Bank of Japan’s survey, Japanese companies' long-term inflation expectations weakened in March from three months ago. Still, for now traders are not focused on the Bank of Japan, and this weighs on the pair.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.4325, where it faces resistance. Britain will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT (the forecast is good). However, be careful of further longs, as pound risks being hit by political news. Support is at 1.4275, 1.4240 and 1.4200. Resistance is at 1.4350 and 1.4400.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8492

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bearish correction through the "Thorns"
5 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The main trend on the four-hour chart is a bullish one. At the same time, we’ve got a flat in progress under the nearest resistance at 1.1409. It’s likely to see a bearish movement towards a support at 1.1341 during the day. If a pullback arrives afterwards, then the market will have a chance to reach a resistance area at 1.1436 – 1.1460.

We’ve got a flat in progress between the 34 Moving Average and the the local resistance at 1.1409. The price is likely going to achieve a support area near the 89 Moving Average and the current trend line. Therefore, if sellers be stopped here, then buyers will probably try to reach a resistance area at 1.1436 – 1.1460.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8496

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: the trend line is waiting for bears
5 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The pair was rising the last two days since a “Double Bottom” arrives at the local low. Finally, the market faced a resistance at 1.4325, which led to the current decline. It’s likely to see a support at the local up trend line. If so, the price will probably try to reach a resistance area at 1.4305 – 1.4342.

The price has formed a “V-Top” pattern and reached a support at 1.4241 afterwards. So, the market is likely going to test the next support area at 1.4190 – 1.4170. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance at 1.4259 – 1.4283.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8497

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: sell target - 109.00
5 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY broke pivotal support level 111.00
-Next sell target - 109.00

USD/JPY recently broke the pivotal support level 111.00 (which has been reversing the price from the middle of February, as can be seen below). The breakout of this support level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 5 – which started earlier - when the pair reversed down from the lower trendline of the daily down channel from last June (acting as resistance now, after it was broken by the previous minor impulse wave 3 in February).

USD/JPY is likely to fall in the active minor impulse wave 5 toward the next sell target at the support level 109.00. Strong resistance now stands at 111.00.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8502

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Three Methods" put new heart into bears
5 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The market has been declining since an “Evening Star” was formed at the last high. Moreover, there’s a “Three Methods” pattern, which led to the more bearish pressure. So, it’s likely that the price is going to falling down until any bullish pattern arrives. As we can see on the Daily chart, all last candles are bearish and we don’t have any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, today’s candle is probably going to be a black one.

We’ve got a “High Wave” and an “Inverted Hammer” at the local low, but they haven’t been confirmed yet. It’s likely to see a bullish correction during the day. If the price faces a resistance on the 21 Moving Average, then it’ll be an opportunity to see a new low shortly.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8507

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 6

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar extended recovery on Tuesday following the relatively upbeat US labor market figures on Friday. On Wednesday, the market will focus on on the FOMC meeting minutes release фе 18:00 GMT on Wednesday. As for the EUR/USD currency pair, we could see more weakness here tomorrow. Selling below 1.1350 is good trading idea. However, in the medium term we still remain bullish for the European currency.

GBP/USD remains under bearish pressure, but the market is strongly oversold now. We expect a temporarily pullback to 1.4200 before a new wave of weakness will follow. The pair targets the 1.4070/50 support area this week. As for the economic calendar, watch the UK housing price indx tomorrow.

USD/JPY was a big mover on Tuesday, smashed by a wave of risk aversion. A new selling impulse followed in the American session. Break below 110.00 yen (channel support) will triger a stronger selling impulse for the pair.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8508

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bulls have a rest in a range of "Triangle"
6 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The main trend on the four-hour chart is a still bullish. The price has broken “Triangle” pattern’s upper side and reached a resistance at 1.1460 afterwards. So, we’ve got a local consolidation above the current trend line. The market is likely going to get a support at 1.1341 – 1.1334. If so, bulls will have a chance to resume their rally towards a resistance at 1.1437.

There’s a flat in progress between the levels 1.1409 and 1.1334. Moreover, the current price movement is likely going to form a “Triangle” pattern. So, its lower side can act as a support. If we see a pullback from it, then a rise will be on the table once again, so we should keep an eye on a resistance area at 1.1409 – 1.1437.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8514

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bears poking fun at bulls in the Pennant
6 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has been falling down since a “Triple Top” arrived at the last high. We’ve got a support at 1.4117, but this is likely not the end of the current bearish rally. The market is probably going to get a support at 1.4052. If so, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance at 1.4170.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the up trend line has been broken. There’s a possible “Pennant” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach a support at 1.4056. If a pullback appears from this level, then it’ll be a chance to see at least a local correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8515