Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CHF: buy target - 1.0100
29 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.9900
• Next buy target - 1.0100

USD/CHF recently broke above the pivotal resistance level 0.9900 (which stopped the earlier A-wave at the start of August, as can be seen below). The breakout of this resistance level is likely to strengthen the bullish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

USD/CHF is expected to rise further in the active accelerated impulse wave (iii) (which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of May) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0100 (which previously stopped the extended primary ABC correction ② in March).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6902

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/USD: sell target - 0.6600
29 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/USD reversed from resistance level 0.6850
• Next sell target - 0.6600

NZD/USD continues to fall after the recent double reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.6850 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward (C)-wave from the end of April. The first downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (A). The latest downward reversal from the same resistance area started the C-wave of the active intermediate ABC correction (B).

NZD/USD is likely to fall further in the active waves C and (B) toward the next sell target at the next support level 0.6600. Strong resistance remains at 0.6850.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6903

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9000
30 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CAD reversed from support zone
• Next buy target - 0.9000

NZD/CAD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 0.8830 (former strong resistance level which stopped the previous A-wave in August, as you can see below) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp C-wave from September (which started when the pair reversed up from the major support level 0.8300).

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone is likely to lead to further gains toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.9000 (which recently stopped the previous intermediate ABC correction (2)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6910

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/NZD: sell target - 1.0400
30 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/NZD broke strong support zone
• Next sell target - 1.0400

AUD/NZD continues to fall strongly – after the price recently broke through the powerful support zone lying between the support levels 1.0700 and 1.0600. The breakout of this support zone accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which started earlier – when the pair reversed down from the former support trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from June (acting as resistance now, after it was broken).

AUD/NZD is likely to continue to fall in the accelerated waves 3 , (C) and ② toward the next sell target at the next support level 1.0400. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the resistance level 1.0600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6911

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for November 2-8

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of Japan didn’t increase the size of its monetary stimulus package. As a result, USD/JPY failed to make a big break to the upside. The pair remained limited on the upside by the 121.50 area.

However, declines of dollar/yen after the central bank’s meeting weren’t very extensive.Many still expect the Bank of Japan to ease sometime in future, later this year or in early 2016. As a result, the pair has fundamental support around 118.00/117.50.

Japan still has the problem of deflation: core consumer prices fell for the second month in a row in September. However, the Bank of Japan is already buying immense number of bonds to help the economy and lift up prices, so further easing is risky. The yen is at the comfortable levels for the regulator and the bid tone for USD/JPY remains as the Federal Reserve’s rate hike remain on the table. All in all, despite Japanese economic problems, the central bank can allow itself to remain in the wait-and-see mode keeping the current policy unchanged. On the broad scale, it means that USD/JPY won’t diverge much form its current trading range.

In the short term the pair may be affected by the swings in risk sentiment. There will be a big release of Chinese data on Monday morning. Lower manufacturing PMI in China will increase demand for the yen as a safe haven. In addition, pay attention to the US economic releases: together with the risk sentiment they will represent the main driver of USD/JPY.

Trading is going to be volatile. Support is at 120.00, 119.60 and 118.00. Resistanceisat 121.00, 121.80 and 122.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6917

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for November 2-8

By Kira Iukhtenko
The US Federal Reserve decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its October meeting. However, the policy statement switched into the hawkish territory. As a result, expectations for the Fed’s rate hike in December surged, offering support to the US Dollar in all the currency pairs, except for the USD/JPY pair.

However, traders still have some doubts that the Fed will really hike on its next meeting in December. Weak economic data from the US raise some questions. Last week we have seen that the US economy grew by 1.5% in Q3, down from 4% in Q2.

The US dollar has potential for more growth, but trade on the next week will depend on the economic data. We’ll be focused on the labor market figures on Friday. In September the US economy added only 142K new jobs. Hopefully the picture has improved in October. We recommend buying the US dollar in all the major pairs on upbeat data.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6912

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 2-8

By Elizabeth Belugina

The more hawkish than expected meeting of the Federal Reserve pulled EUR/USD down, to the new lows since the beginning of August at 1.09. The pair once again fell into trading on the monetary policy divergence between the US and Europe. Data from the euro area in the past week was mostly weak, though the flash inflation figures for October improved after declining in September.

The market is still convinced that the European Central Bank will ease its monetary policy further either in December, or early in next year. Such expectations act as a drag on the single currency capping any recovery of the EUR/USD. The pair will meet resistance at the big figures of 1.11, 1.12 and then at 1.1250.

Next week pay attention to the speech of the ECB’s president Mario Draghi on Tuesday and the European Union’s economic forecasts on Thursday. Draghi may offer new hints on the ECB’s assessment of the region’s economy and further plans. In addition, beware of the news from the United States: the Fed’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen will speak on Wednesday, while on Friday America will release nonfarm payrolls for October, and the event will surely rack the market.

Support for EUR/USD lies at 1.08 and below this point there won’t be much of the help for the euro bulls until 1.05. We prefer short positions on the euro in the current environment.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6919

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for November 2-8

By Kira Iukhtenko

British pound had another volatile week. GBP/USD slipped below 1.5250 as the US Federal Reserve turned out to be more hawkish on its meeting. However, sentiment changed to bullish by the end of the week. The pair formed a bullish engulfing candle on Thursday and the pair jumped back up above 1.5300. The trend line of the bearish channel was broken to the upside.

The next strong resistance is now seen at 1.5390. This is the resistance of the potential wedge pattern (red lines on the chart). We expect the pair to retrace from this level and to retest the last week’s support at 1.5250. Technical picture for the coming weeks remains bearish.

We will watch the block of UK PMIs at the beginning of the new week. Thursday will likely become a volatile day for the cable: the Bank of England will hold its policy meeting and release the quarterly inflation report. According to the most recent data, inflation expectations for the next year declined in October and have stayed below the Bank’s target for 13 months. UK interest rate is widely expected to stay on hold in 2015, so the upside of the pound remains capped.

Chart. GBP/USD Daily

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6914

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: buy target - 134.00
2 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 132.00
• Next buy target - 134.00

EUR/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 132.00 (which also previously stopped the sharp minor impulse wave (i) at the start of September, as you can see below). The upward reversal from this support level created the strong daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing – stopping the previous minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of June.

Given the fact that the daily Stochastic is still moving in the oversold territory - EUR/JPY can be expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy target at the resistance level 134.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6938

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 2

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0848, STOP LOSS 1.1102

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 122.13, STOP LOSS 119.98

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0069, STOP LOSS 0.9799

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT from 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.7217

USD/CAD: HoldLONG from 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3035

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 134.30

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7253

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0890, TAKE PROFIT 1.1012, STOP LOSS 1.0825

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4595, TAKE PROFIT 1.4292, STOP LOSS 1.4560

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: BUY on dips

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6935

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 3

Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD is consolidating in the 1.1050/00 area. There is a symmetric triangle on H1. The most recent data from the euro area were rather good, but many market players still expect more easing from the ECB. Morgan Stanley on Monday lowered its forecast for EUR/USD at the beginning of 2016 to $1.03 early. As a result, traders await what the ECB president Mario Draghi says at 19:00 GMT on Tuesday. Above 1.1050 next resistance is at 1.1100/10 and 1.1160. Below 1.1000 support is at 1.0915/00.

UK manufacturing PMI came above expectations (55.5K vs. forecast of 51.8).GBP/USD opened with a gap up and approached resistance at 1.5500, which remains intact probably because manufacturing is not the main sector of British economy (for this see services PMI on Wednesday). Pay attention to British construction PMI due at 09:30 GMT on Tuesday. All the data releases this week are very important for the pound ahead of the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday. After the US Federal Reserve leaned to a more hawkish side, traders may expect more hawkishness from the British central bank as well. Support is at 1.5400, 1.5380 and 1.5340, and retreat to these levels can provide opportunities for longs. In addition, look for confirmation of a break above 1.5500/10 to buy the cable.

USD/JPY is holding above 120.00. Tuesday will be the bank holiday in Japan. The pair will be driven by the US data releases (ISM manufacturing PMI on Monday, factory orders on Tuesday). Support is at 120.00 and 119.60. Resistance is at 121.00, 121.50 and 121.80.

AUD/USD found support above 0.7100 as Australian building approvals rebounded and on the news that Chinese manufacturing sector is stabilizing (though official PMI remained below the threshold of 50 points). Moreover, Aussie’s growth remained limited ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting on Tuesday. Resistance is at 0.7160 and 0.7200 ahead of 0.7280. Support is at 0.7020/00 and 0.6950.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6942

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CHF: buy targets - 0.7130 and 0.7200
3 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CHF reversed from support zone
• Next buy targets - 0.7130 and 0.7200

AUD/CHF recently reversed up from the support zone lying at the intersection of the upper trendline of the wide daily down channel from the end of April – acting as support now, after it was broken by the previous upward impulse from the end of October, as you can see below), the 50% Fibonacci Retracement of the aforementioned upward price impulse and the round support level 0.7000. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Piercing Line.

AUD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 (of the intermediate (C)-wave from September) toward the next buy targets - 0.7130 and 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6953

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/CHF: buy target - 1.5400
3 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/CHF broke multiple resistance levels
• Next buy target - 1.5400

GBP/CHF has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the resistance levels 1.4900 (buy target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.5100 (former major resistance level which stopped previous waves (a) and B in September, as you can see below). The breakout of the resistance level 1.4900 coincided with the breakout of the resistance trendline of the Falling Wedge chart pattern – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further in the accelerated impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from October) toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.5400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6951

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 3

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0848, STOP LOSS 1.1102

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 122.13, STOP LOSS 119.98

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5465, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5398

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0069 NEXT, STOP LOSS 0.9799 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7217, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.7217

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3035

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7253

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0890, TAKE PROFIT 1.1012, STOP LOSS 1.0825

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4595, TAKE PROFIT 1.4292, STOP LOSS 1.4560 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 4

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar is feeling itself rather confident at the beginning of the week after the late October Federal Reserve meeting. Financial markets are now awaiting the US labor market release on Friday. Figures could surprise the markets to the upside, offering more support to the US currency.

Wednesday, November 4, is an intense day for the traders as well. ECB head Mario Draghi will deliver a speech at the ECB forum on banking supervision, while the Fed’s governor Janet Yellen will speak later in the day at the opening ceremony of the House of financial services. We expects these speeches to pull EUR/USD lower. Break below 1.0900 will open the way to our next target at 1.0820. Resistance – 1.1100. Another events to watch on the US calendar are the ADP NFP, trade balance and non-manufacturing PMI.

GBP/USD is another pair to watch these days. The 1.5500 mark remains a ceiling for the buyers. Break below the round 1.5300 mark will open the way for more sales. Watch the UK services PMI on Wednesday as well.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6958

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 4

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0848, STOP LOSS 1.1102

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 122.13, STOP LOSS 119.98

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0069, STOP LOSS 0.9799 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7205 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0890, TAKE PROFIT 1.1012, STOP LOSS 1.0825

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3035

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: BUY at 186.20, TAKE PROFIT 188.31, STOP LOSS 185.29

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6720, TAKE PROFIT 0.6567, STOP LOSS 0.6795

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

_____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6963

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Goldman Sachs: fresh forecasts for FX majors
4 November 2015
Here are the latest end-of-the-period currency forecasts by Goldman Sachs.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6970

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: sell targets - 1.0900 and 1.0800
4 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/USD reversed from resistance zone
• Next sell targets - 1.0900 and 1.0800

EUR/USD continues to decline after the recent sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the former support trendline of the wide daily up channel from March (acting as support now after it was broken) and the resistance level 1.1100 (former pivotal support level which stopped the intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of September, as you can see below). The downward reversal from this resistance zone continues the active intermediate impulse wave (3) from October.

EUR/USD is likely to fall to the next sell targets at the next support levels 1.0900 and 1.0800. Strong resistance remains at 1.1100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6964

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 5

By Kira Iukhtenko


US Dollar remains well-supported ahead of the labor-market report on Friday. We believe that the demand for the greenback will last at least until the release. What’s more, even the neutral figures will be “ok” for the market. Expectations for a rate hike on December are now on the rise. The US economic calendar on Thursday is rather intense. Watch the unemployment claims (forecast – neutral) and listen to the Fed’s members Lockhart, Fisher and Dudley. These officials don’t object to a hike in 2015, so we could get more hawkish signals from this side.

EUR/USD is seen retesting the 1.0900 support as we write. Mario Draghi’s dovish comments confirm the policy divergence between the ECB and the Fed. We recommend selling the pair at the current levels with an initial target of 1.0820. Resistance is seen at 1.1070. Watch the German factory orders in euro zone tomorrow and the fresh EU economic forecasts.

GBP/USD is also trading under pressure. Market awaits the “SuperThursday” – the day when the Bank of England will announce its rate decision, release meeting minutes and Q3 inflation report. We still expect the forecasts to be revised to the downside, delaying the rate hike expectations. Cable is testing the 1.5400 mark (38.2 Fibo from the recent rally). Targetliesat 1.5360.

USD/JPY approached the flat trend line at 121.60. Monthly bullish reversal candle supports our idea to go long. Watch the Bank of Japan meeting minutes tonight. AUD/USD pulled back from 0.7220, forming a reversal candle on the H4. We still believe the bullish potential is limited. Listen to the RBA governor Stevens’ comments tonight.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6972

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 5

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1055, TAKE PROFIT 1.0809, STOP LOSS 1.1075

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.35, TAKE PROFIT 123.01, STOP LOSS 120.50 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0069, STOP LOSS 0.9799 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7205

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3035

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7175, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.7235

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0875

GBP/JPY: BUY at 186.20, TAKE PROFIT 188.31, STOP LOSS 185.29

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6650, TAKE PROFIT 0.6457, STOP LOSS 0.6735

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6978