Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 13

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3190 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7160

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6525, TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/JPY: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

_______________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7056

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CAD: buy target - 1.3420
13 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CAD reached buy target 1.3300
• Next buy target - 1.3420

USD/CAD recently reached the resistance level 1.3300, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The active impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the 5th intermediate impulse wave (5) from the middle of October) recently broke the resistance trendline of the daily Triangle from the end of September – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (5) toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.3420 (which stopped the B-wave of the previous ABC correction (4)).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7057

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CHF: buy target - 1.0100
13 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CHF reversed from parity
• Next buy target - 1.0100

USD/CHF recently reversed down from the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from May.The subsequent downward correction today reversed up from the support zone lying between the parity and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse wave from the start of this month.

Given the strength of the support at parity and the fact that the pair is currently moving inside the 3rd minor impulse wave (iii) of the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from May - USD/CHF can be expected to rise further to the next buy target at 1.0100. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the parity.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7058

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for November 16-22

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY corrected down from 123.60 to the 122.50 area. Demand for Japanese yen as a safe haven increased after Chinese data this week renewed concerns about the global economy. On such background the approaching US rate hike will make investors even more worried. Still, the US has a bond yield advantage over Japan, and this will provide the greenback with fundamental support.

Next week pay attention to the release of Japan’s GDP on Monday. The odds are that the Japanese economy will keep contracting in Q3 after declining in Q2. The data release will be followed by the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Thursday. Although the market generally does not expect the Bank of Japan to add monetary stimulus at this time, weak economic figures leave this option on the table. This is another factor to limit the decline of USD and Japanese Yen.

The current decline in USD/JPY looks like a correction. Support is at 122.00, 121.50 and 121.00. Resistance is at 123.00, 123.60 and 124.30. Pay attention to the US data as well: if the readings aren’t very bright, then the pair will be in no hurry to move up.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7063

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 16-22

Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD remained under bearish pressure, but found some support just below 1.0700 as investors’ risk sentiment was not very bright, and demand for lower-yielding euro increased in comparison with the demand for the US dollar.

The European Central Bank remains ready to ease policy in the near future. The ECB president Mario Draghi claimed that the stronger euro accounts for the euro area’s weak inflation outlook. Next week Draghi will speak 2 more times – on Monday and Friday. As the regulator’s head has so far been dovish, we think that he will continue stick to this line, so his speeches represent bearish risks for the euro. German economic growth has slowed a bit in Q3. The same happened with euro area’s economy. The news are moderately negative.

Apart from Draghi’s speeches next week pay attention to the euro area’s final October inflation on Monday and ZEW economic sentiment for Germany and the euro area on Tuesday. Data from the US will be also important for the pair.

Large speculators significantly increased net shorts on the euro in the recent weeks, the market has become more bearish, and so the risk of an abrupt short covering is now higher. Still, levels of 1.0900/50 – former support line of 2015 – represent strong resistance for the single currency, and once reached will provoke a new wave of selling. Support is at 1.0700, 1.0660, 1.0600 and 1.0520. As, for now, we have probably already seen the most of the pair’s decline on monetary divergence between the US and the euro area, the pace of decline will likely slow down and EUR/USD has some grounds to stabilize and consolidate a bit.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7062

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for November 16-22
13 November 2015
By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar retraced a little lower on the past week, but we review this move as a wave of profit taking. The Fed’s officials stepped into the market with a bunch of comments, but there was nothing limiting the December rate hike there. However, we concede that the US officials will try to talk the greenback down in the coming weeks.

The general picture remains bullish for the US currency. A 70% chance for a rate hike in December, calculated by CME, is pushing the USD longs up. US stock indices are beginning to price the move in: we’ve seen a powerful decline on the past week.

Traders all over the world will be monitoring the US economic data. As for the new week, watch the US October CPI on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday. We’ll see whether the October 28 meeting was as hawkish as the market understood.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7065

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for November 16-22

By Kira Iukhtenko

British currency remains highly volatile: GBP/USD has recovered 50% Fibonacci from the early November rally. Buyers faced resistance at 1.5250. You may see a symmetrical triangle on the H4 chart.

We see two ways to trade the cable on the new week. According to the first scenario, the pair will resume the decline. In this case, we advise selling from 1.5170 with a medium-term target at 1.50. The second scenario is bullish: the pair could extend the upside and push to 1.5300 and 1.5380. Given the USD bullish potential, we tend to the first, bearish scenario.

Next week on Tuesday, we’ll pay attention to the UK and US inflation data. Make sure you don’t miss the UK retail sales on Thursday.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7064

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 16

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3190

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7115 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6525, TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: Look for the opportunities to BUY

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4390

____________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7080

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CHF/JPY: buy target - 123.00
16 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CHF/JPY reversed from support level 121.30
• Next buy target - 123.00

CHF/JPY continues to rise after the recent sharp upward reversal from the support level 121.30 (which also previously reversed the earlier strong minor impulse wave 1 at the end of October, as you can see below). The price earlier broke through the support level 122.20, which was set in our previous forecast as the sell target for this currency pair.

Given the strength of the support level 121.30 - CHF/JPY can be expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the resistance level 123.00 (which reversed previous minor correction 2), intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned support level 121.30.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7084

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/GBP: buy target - 0.7100
16 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/GBP reached sell target 0.7040
• Next buy target - 0.7100

EUR/GBP today reversed up sharply - after the price reached the pivotal support level 0.7040, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. This support level also previously reversed the price sharply at the start of this month and in the middle of August – as you can see from the daily EUR/GBP chart below.

Given the strength of the support level 0.7040 and the fact that the daily Stochastic indicator has not yet fully recovered from the oversold territory - EUR/GBP can be expected to correct up further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7100. EUR/GBP is likely to reverse down after reaching 0.7100.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7085

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 17

Elizabeth Belugina

Stock markets moved down on the increased geopolitical risk and the market’s risk aversion. The focus this week will be on the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish meeting on Wednesday. On Tuesday the US will release important inflation data at 13:30 GMT. At the same time, the expectations of the Fed’s rate hike in December will probably remain in any case providing support for the US dollar.

EUR/USD once again tested levels below 1.0700, but then managed to get higher. The single currency got under negative pressure after attacks in Paris, although the bearish impact is limited as the euro has been so far perceived as a safe haven. The euro area’s October inflation figures were revised a bit to the upside on Monday. Plus the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi declined to comment on monetary policy in this latest speech. As a result, the pull of the bears has weakened. A daily close below 1.0700 is needed to confirm that the euro’s fall has resumed. Next support is at 1.0660 and 1.0600. Resistance is at 1.0795/1.0800. Watch German and euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment at 10:00 GMT on Tuesday.

GBP/USD faces strong resistance at 1.5260 (50% Fibo of November decline). The next resistance is at 1.5315. Support is at 1.5140 and 1.5100 ahead of 1.5000. Britain will release inflation data at 09:30 GMT. Forecast is weak (-0.1%), and a reading even worse will send the cable lower.

USD/JPY tested levels in the 122.20 area, but then returned to 123.00. In line with expectations, Japanese economy kept contracting in Q3: GDP fell by 0.3%. It means that Japan in in recession. Yet, the market’s reaction was muted, but the short-term trend line was breached to the upside. Further resistance is at 123.10, 123.60, 124.00 and 124.30. Support is at 122.00, 121.80 and 121.50.

AUD/USD is affected by the deteriorated risk sentiment. Below 0.7100 the pair is vulnerable for a decline to 0.7050. Resistance is at 0.7140 and 0.7200. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7087

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 17

Open positions:
EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3220 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7115 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4390

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6525 , TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: BUY at 122.95, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.20

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop oders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7093

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: sell target - 1.0600
17 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/USD reached sell target 1.0700
• Next sell target - 1.0600

EUR/USD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support level 1.0700, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.0800 (the lower boundary of the resistance zone located between price levels 1.0800 and 1.0880). The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active impulse wave (v) of the 3rd minor impulse wave 3 from October.

EUR/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the next pivotal support level 1.0600 (which reversed the previous sharp wave (ii) in April).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7094

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/NZD: buy target - 2.3800
17 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/NZD broke resistance level 2.3350
• Next buy target - 2.3800

GBP/NZD continues to rise after the pair recently broke the resistance level 2.3350 (which reversed the previous intermediate impulse wave (1) at the start of this month, as you can see below). The breakout of the resistance level 2.3350 is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary impulse wave ⑤ which started in October (when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 2.2500, the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse ③ from April).

GBP/NZD is likely to rise in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 2.3800 (former support level from September).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7095

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 18

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remained well-supported on Tuesday: USD Index hovers slightly below the historical highs at 99.60 as we write. Demand for the greenback is propelled by the Fed's rate hike expectations and the increased social and polictical uncertainty. US October CPI came out in line with forecasts on Tuesday (+0.2% m/m), leaving the door open for a December rate hike. On Wednesday traders will focus on the FOMC meeting minutes release. The document is expected to push the expectations even higher, so be ready for more USD gains tomorrow.

EUR/USD slipped to fresh muti-year lows of 1.0640. The pair remains in a clearly-cut bearish channel. The 1.0500 mark is expected to be hit in the coming sessions. Resistance is seen at 1.0800/30. Euro zone’s economic calendar for Wednesday is empty, while on Thursday pay attention to the ECB meeting minutes.

GBP/USD hovers below the 1.5200 mark. Our bearish scenario is now in action: break below 1.5130 will open the way to 1.5000 in the near term. UK economy remains in deflation, so chances for the BOE rate hike remain subdued these days. Watch the UK retail sales on Thursday: the reading is expected to have fallen by 0.4% on October. Data could trigger a severe GBP selloff at the end of the week.

Commodity markets are trading in the red and this is a strong medium-term bearish factor for the commodity block currencies as well. AUD/USD gained some ground on Tuesday due to the neutral RBA minutes, but we stay pessimistic about the currency’s prospects. Sell on rallies to 0.7160 and target 0.6900 in the mid-term.

Get ready to buy USD/JPY on a break above 123.60. Support is seen at 122.90. Don’t miss the BOJ meeting on Thursday.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7101

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 18

Open positions:
EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0039

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3220 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7045 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4390

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6525, TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

Trade signals:

USD/JPY: BUY at 122.95, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.20

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop oders (moved together with the price)
More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7105

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
CAD/CHF: buy target - 0.7700
18 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• CAD/CHF broke pivotal resistance level 0.7560
• Next buy target - 0.7700

CAD/CHF continues to rise– following the earlier sharp breakout of the resistance zone lying at the intersection of the pivotal resistance level 0.7560 (which has been reversing this currency pair from the start of August) and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous intermediate (C)-wave from the end of April. The breakout of the resistance level 0.7560 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the sharp (C)-wave of the primary ABC correction Ⓑ from the end of August.

CAD/CHF is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the next resistance level 0.7700. Buy stop-loss can be placed at half the daily ATR (Average True Range) below the support level 0.7560.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7108

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/CHF: buy target - 1.0200
18 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/CHF reached buy target 1.0100
• Next buy target - 1.0200

USD/CHF continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 1.0000 and 1.0100 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). This resistance zone was strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the wide daily up channel from the start of May (as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance area accelerated the 5th impulse wave (v) of the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (B) from May.

USD/CHF is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the next resistance level 1.0200. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the support level 1.0100.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7107

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 19

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.35, TAKE PROFIT 124.63, STOP LOSS 122.79

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5256, TAKE PROFIT 1.4960, STOP LOSS 1.5330

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0310, STOP LOSS 1.0039

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7125, TAKE PROFIT 0.7297, STOP LOSS 0.7055

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3220

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 132.83

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.6936, STOP LOSS 0.7045 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4285, TAKE PROFIT 1.3993, STOP LOSS 1.4285 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 186.77 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0830, TAKE PROFIT 1.0950, STOP LOSS 1.0789

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7118

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7400
19 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/CHF reached buy targets 0.7130 and 0.7200
• Next buy target - 0.7400

AUD/CHF has been rising strongly in the last few days inside the accelerated minor impulse wave (iii) – which belongs to the sharp C-wave from the end of September. The active impulse wave (iii) recently broke through the resistance levels 0.7130 and 0.7200 – both of which were set in our earlier forecast as the buy targets for this currency pair. The breakout of these resistance levels intensified the bullish pressure on AUD/CHF.

The price is currently trading close to the resistance level 0.7300 (top of previous wave (iv), intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from August). If the pair breaks above 0.7300 - AUD/CHF can then rise to the next buy target 0.7400.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7120