Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/USD: sell target - 0.6500
5 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/USD reached sell target 0.6600
• Next sell target - 0.6500

NZD/USD recently reversed down with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Evening Star from the resistance level 0.6800 (which is the lower boundary of the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.6900 and 0.6800; this resistance zone earlier reversed previous waves (A) and B, as you can see below). The downward reversal from this resistance area accelerated the active C-wave of the intermediate (B)-wave from October – helping the price reach the support level 0.6600 (previous sell target set for this currency pair).

NZD/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the next support level 0.6500 (target price calculated for the completion of the active C-wave).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6980

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7000
5 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/GBP falling inside accelerated impulse waves (3) and ③
• Next sell target - 0.7000

EUR/GBP has been falling sharply in the last two trading weeks – following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.7500 and 0.7400 (which also previously reversed the intermediate corrective wave (A) in May, as you can see below). The downward reversal from this resistance zone started the active primary impulse wave ③ - which then broke the daily Rising Wedge from July and the support levels 0.7250, 0.7200 and 0.7100.

EUR/GBP is likely to fall in the accelerated impulse waves (3) and ③ toward the next sell target at the round support level 0.7000.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6979

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 6

Elizabeth Belugina

The Federal Reserve’s Chair Janet Yellen said on Wednesday that the central bank’s December meeting would be a ‘live’ possibility for a rate hike if good data were released by that time supporting the Fed’s positive economic outlook. According to the futures market, the probability of a rate increase next month rose to 58%. Traders now focus on the release of the US non-farm payrolls at 13:50 GMT on Friday. According to the consensus forecast, American economy added about 180K jobs in October after gaining only 142K in September, while the unemployment rate slid from 5.1% to 5.0%. The market will likely to get quieter ahead of the release.

EUR/USD breached 1.0900, which is now acting as resistance. The euro area released weak data: German factory orders kept falling, while the region’s retail sales also contracted. Still, EUR/USD got some support from higher EUR/GBP. The downside targets are 1.0820 and 1.0800.

GBP/USD fell on the dovish comments from the Bank of England. Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) proposed to raise the benchmark interest rate, the regulator lowered growth and inflation forecasts and underlined the weakness of global economy. Support line from October lows is located in the 1.5280 area and a fix below it will open the way down to 1.5200 and 1.5165. Further, support us at 1.5100. Resistance at 1.5340 (200-day MA), 1.5380 and 1.5380 has solidified. The picture looks negative.

USD/JPY moved above last week’s consolidation range. US dollar is driven up by US Treasury yields, which rose to the highest levels since 2011. The pair is currently trying to overcome 100-day MA and 61.8% Fibo of the August decline in the 121.80/122.00 area. The next Fibonacci level lies right above 123.00 – this is the level to focus on in case of good figures from the US on Friday. Support is at 121.50, 121.15 and 121.00. The best trading strategy is to buy on the retreat to these levels or look for other opportunities to enter longs.

Oil prices remain under pressure after the decline on Wednesday. Australian dollar is hampered by the strength of its US counterpart. Positive comments from the RBA’s Governor Stevens were not much of help to Aussie. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release its quarterly monetary policy statement early on Friday. 55-day MA at 0.7137 is providing some support for AUD/USD, but it remains vulnerable for a decline to 0.7015 (September support line). Resistance is at 0.7200 and 0.7280.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6986

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for November 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY made a break to the upside and jumped to 123.00.
US nonfarm payrolls came out significantly above forecasts, and other US labor market data were also quite positive. The expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in December increased, and this is a bullish driver for the pair. At the same time,the pair lacks bullish drivers from the Bank of Japan: Japanese officials say nothing new and give no hints that there will be an increase in monetary stimulus. This may slow the pair’s advance a bit. Still, we are working with bullish positions at this market.

The upcoming week will once again be light in terms of economic data from Japan. Only releases of current account on Monday and core machinery orders on Thursday are worth mentioning.

Pay attention to the Chinese data releases in the first 3 days of the week as these data will influence the market’s risk sentiment. Demand for Japanese yen rises in times of risk aversion and declines when the market’s risk appetite improves.

Above 123.00 resistance lies at 124.00, 124.50 and 125.00. Previous resistance at 122.00 and 121.50.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6993

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for November 9-15

By Kira Iukhtenko

It was a profitable week for the US dollar. The greenback rose to a 7-month high versus the euro on strong labor market figures. US economy added 270K new jobs in October, while unemployment declined to 5%.

The US Dollar index jumped above 99 points on the news and is now close to its historical high of 100.30 (March 2015 high). We expect this level to be broken in the near term.

Strong data give the green light for a first rate hike in December. According to the futures market, a 70% possibility is now priced in. These expectations open a long bullish road to the US currency.

Economic calendar for the new week is rather light. We’ll focus on the retail sales on Friday – growth is expected. However, be ready for some pullbacks in USD, as the currency already is oversold.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6996

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for November 9-15

By Kira Iukhtenko

Dovish Bank of England’s remarks and hawkish Federal Reserve pulled the British pound much lower over the past week. The currency pair; GBP/USD lost almost 400 pips despite the upbeat economic figures released in Britain.

The pair remains in a descending channel (red lines on the chart). We see space for a decline to 1.5000 in the near-term. For now, there are no fundamental reasons for the pair to fall below this support. However, it will all depend on the market volatility in the new week. Major resistance is now seen at 1.5250, 1.5330 and 1.5500 (channel resistance).

As for the UK economic calendar in the new week, pay attention to the labor market data on Wednesday. Employment figures could show improvement and pull the pound higher. Bank of England will also deliver a press conference on the Inflation report on Wednesday.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6995

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for November 9-15

Elizabeth Belugina

The divergence in monetary policy between the European Central Bank and Federal Reserve remains the main driver of EUR/USD.
This driver is pointing to the downside. The ECB president Mario Draghi said that the central bank’s asset-purchase program could be boosted and other tools may be used to ensure inflation will return to its goal. The Fed’s Chair Janet Yellen, on the other hand, signaled that American regulator may raise interest rate in December. US labor market data increased the possibility of such step. Nonfarm payrolls rose above forecast in October gaining 271K.

Next week will start with the meetings of the European finance ministers. The officials will discuss Greece. The creditors are currently reviewing Greece’s bailout, there are still some disagreements, but the nation is said to show progress. We will also hear more from Mario Draghi on Wednesday as he will attend the forum organized by the Bank of England. Pay attention to the euro area’s GDP releases on Friday. Economists predicted last month that the region’s economy added 0.4% in Q3 up after rising by 0.3% in Q2.

EUR/USD fell below 1.0800. A close below this level on Friday will confirm further bearish scenario for the single currency. Next support levels are at the big figures – 1.0700, 1.0600 and 1.0500. Resistance is at 1.0900, 1.1000 and 1.1050. We stick to our recommendation of selling the euro on its attempts to recover or on the break of support levels.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6994

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 9

Open positions:

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3080

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7205

EUR/CHF: SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: SHORT at 1.4355, TAKE PROFIT 1.4153, STOP LOSS 1.4455

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0571, STOP LOSS 1.0903

USD/JPY: BUY at 122.75, TAKE PROFIT 124.16, STOP LOSS 121.95

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5080, TAKE PROFIT 1.4857, STOP LOSS 1.5155

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6896, STOP LOSS 0.7136

GBP/JPY: BUY at 184.25, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 183.65

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7011

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: buy targets - 124.00 and 125.00
9 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reached buy target 123.00
• Next buy targets - 124.00 and 125.00

USD/JPY opened this week with the upward gap – following the earlier sharp breakout of the resistance level 123.00, which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level follows the earlier breakout of the two resistance levels 121.00 and 122.00 – each of which accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the 5th intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of August, as you can see below.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 124.00 – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 125.00.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7012

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for November 10

By Elizabeth Belugina

The advance of the US dollar after the release of strong labor market data in America on Friday paused on Monday as the market participants took profit.

EUR/USD recovered from Friday lows just above 1.0700 to resistance in the 1.0800 area. The meetings of the European finance ministers will continue on Tuesday, but the real impact on the euro may come only on Wednesday with the speech of the ECB president Mario Draghi. Unless the ECB steps away from signaling the upcoming policy easing, the euro will keep declining. We recommend small short positions. Support is at 1.0660 and 1.0600. Note as the euro moved below 1.0800, support levels became very weak.

GBP/USD retraced about 50% of Friday’s decline, and the bulls met resistance at 1.5115. If the pair stays below this level, we will favor small shorts. Pound has strong support at 1.5000, but this level may come under pressure. There will be no releases in the UK on Tuesday: traders will be waiting for the jobs report on Wednesday. Other resistance levels are at 1.5165 and 1.5200. Further retracement up will constitute the selling opportunity.

USD/JPY edged up to 123.50 after big gains on Friday. Resistance is at 124.00 and 124.50. Be careful with longs at the current levels as the pair is currently overbought. Watch Chinese data on Tuesday as they will affect the market’s risk sentiment (risk aversion is negative for USD/JPY). Support is at 123.00, 122.50 and 122.00.

AUD/USD found support around 0.7025 (September support line). Weak Chinese import data has weighed on the Aussie. Australia will release NAB business confidence and home loans early on Tuesday. Chinese figures will be also important. A break below 0.7000 will lead the pair to 0.6950 and 0.6900. Resistance is at 0.7100/25 and 0.7200.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7019

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 10

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0571, STOP LOSS 1.0903

GBP/JPY: BUY at 184.25, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 183.65

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.22, TAKE PROFIT 125.28, STOP LOSS 122.62

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5080, TAKE PROFIT 1.4857, STOP LOSS 1.5155

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6896, STOP LOSS 0.7136

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3135 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7205

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4355, TAKE PROFIT 1.4153, STOP LOSS 1.4455

_____________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7023

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CAD: sell targets - 0.8600 and 0.8500
10 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CAD broke daily up channel
• Next sell targets - 0.8600 and 0.8500

NZD/CAD recently fell sharply - breaking through the support trendline of the daily up channel from September (which has enclosed the C-wave of the preceding intermediate ABC correction (B), which was recently stopped by the round resistance level 0.9000). The breakout of this up channel coincided with the breakout of the support level 0.8800 (former resistance level, which stopped wave 4 in August) – which intensified the bearish pressure on this currency pair.

NZD/CAD is likely to fall further inside the active waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.8600 - the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 0.8500.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7025

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Trading plan for November 11

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar extends the upside after a short-term pause on Monday. USD index returned to the Friday’s post-NFP high of 99.40 on Tuesday. We remain bullish for the USD this week. Watch the FOMC members’ comments on Thursday and the US October retail sales on Friday.

EUR/USD broke below the 1.0700 support and is actively declining. We target 1.0650 in the nearest future (trend support), small pullback from here could take place before a test of the 1.0500 target. Use all the rallies to go short. Divergence in expectations between the ECB and the Fed remains a strong bearish factor.

GBP/USD is a bit more stable on Tuesday due to the EUR/GBP decline. Cable has recovered above 1.5100 (early October lows) and stays calm ahead of the UK labor market data on Wednesday. Officials forecasts are upbeat, but the market reaction to any deviation could be very rude – remember the last week’s volatility. Resistance at 1.5200 is expected to limit the upside. We stay bearish though and target 1.5000 this week.

AUD/USD bounced back from 0.7200 and is testing the 0.7020 support as we write. Watch the Chinese figures tonight. Any disappointment will pull the Aussie down to our bearish target at 0.6900.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7029

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 11

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.22, TAKE PROFIT 125.28, STOP LOSS 122.62

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.6896, STOP LOSS 0.7136

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3190 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026;, STOP LOSS 0.7205

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4355, TAKE PROFIT 1.4153, STOP LOSS 1.4380 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/JPY: BUY at 185.75, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.18

NZD/USD: Possibly BUY

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

_______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7033

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/CHF: buy target - 1.5400
11 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/CHF reversed from pivotal support level 1.5100
• Next buy target - 1.5400

GBP/CHF recently reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 1.5100 (former strong resistance level which reversed earlier waves (a) and (c) in September, acting as support now after it was broken by the previous wave 2, as can be seen below). The upward reversal from this support level created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Hammer – increasing the likelihood of further gains of this currency pair in the coming trading sessions.

GBP/CHF is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.5400 (which stopped previous extended intermediate wave (B) in August).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7034

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.70400
11 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/GBP falling inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
• Next sell target - 0.70400

EUR/GBP continues to fall inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3), which is a part of the primary impulse wave ③ from the middle of October. The active impulse wave (3) started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7200 (former support level which reversed previous (B)-wave in September) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of previous intermediate impulse wave (1).

EUR/GBP is likely to fall further inside the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.70400 (which stopped previous impulse wave (1)).

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7035

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Trading plan for November 12

Kira Iukhtenko

FX market volatility remains subdued on Wednesday as the US and Canadian markets are closed due to the Veteran’s day celebration. US Dollar Index holds above 99 points, but lacks momentum to extend the rally for now. What to expect on Thursday? In the United States, we’ll focus on the FOMC members speeches (Yellen, Evans, Dudley, Fisher). Expectations of the bullish retail sales report on Friday are expected to support the demand for the US currency.

EUR/USD found support at 1.0700 on Wednesday, but the rallies remain limited by 1.0740 as we write. We advise going short below 1.0720 and see the key resistance at 1.0780 (local high, trend line). ECB Head Mario Draghi is scheduled to deliver two speeches on Thursday – be ready for some monetary policy hints.

GBP/USD extends the recovery, approaching the 1.5200 mark om moxed labor market report (38.2% Fibo). Break higher could open the way to 1.5250 (50% Fibo), but we expect the current rally to be short-lived. US retail sales figures on Friday will likely pull the pair down towards the 1.5000 support.

USD/JPY is trading under slight bearish pressure, but the move reminds us of a technical correction. Major resistance lies at 125.30/80, while support is seen at 121.60 (resistance of the previous sideways channel).

AUD/USD tries to recover, but remains capped by 0.7080. Keep an eye on the Australian labor market data tonight – employment is expected to improve. Nevertheless, the 0.7100 mark remains a good level to sell the pair.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7039

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for November 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0720, TAKE PROFIT 1.0458, STOP LOSS 1.0835

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 123.22, TAKE PROFIT 125.28, STOP LOSS 122.62

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9820, TAKE PROFIT 1.0240, STOP LOSS 0.9833

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7065, TAKE PROFIT 0.7136, STOP LOSS 0.7085/80

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3150, TAKE PROFIT 1.3457, STOP LOSS 1.3190 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 133.35, TAKE PROFIT 129.62, STOP LOSS 133.45 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7026, STOP LOSS 0.7205

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0825, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0845

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4355, TAKE PROFIT 1.4153, STOP LOSS 1.4380 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 186.45, TAKE PROFIT 190.00, STOP LOSS 185.35

Trade ideas:

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.6525, TAKE PROFIT 0.6745, STOP LOSS 0.6451

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7046

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/AUD: sell targets - 1.5000 and 1.4800
12 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• EUR/AUD reached sell targets 1.5200 and 1.5100
• Next sell targets - 1.5000 and 1.4800

EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support zone lying between the support levels 1.5200 and 1.5100 – both of which were set in our previous forecast as the sell targets for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 1.5100 coincided with the breakout of the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate corrective (A)-wave from the end of April (as you can see from the daily EUR/AUD chart below).

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further in the accelerated C-wave toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.5000 - the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward 1.4800.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7047

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.1000
12 November 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/NZD reversed from support zone
• Next buy target - 1.1000

AUD/NZD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions inside the 3rd primary impulse wave ③, which started at the end of October - when the pair reversed up from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 1.0500, the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the preceding sharp upward impulse from April (as can be seen below). The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

AUD/NZD is currently approaching the strong resistance level 1.0930 (former multi-month pivotal support level) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.1000.

More:
https://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/7048