Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. The market keeps moving within the final part of a complicated corrective wave (4). The pair has to form the final part – коррекцию [Z] of y of (4).

H4. It seems that the wave [X] took form of the converging horizontal triangle. After this triangle was formed, the bulls have immediately started to push the prices up. The uptrend will likely continue at the new week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6695

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 12

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT from 1.4735, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4765 (revised)

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

GBP/JPY:Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

NZD/USD:Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

USD/CAD:Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

EUR/JPY: BUY at 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6707

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 13

By Elizabeth Belugina

On Monday there were some hawkish comments from the Fed’s member Lockhart, but with the US banks on holiday and the market being tired of guessing about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike the greenback didn’t react. On Tuesday there won’t be much of the news from America.

The advance of EUR/USD has paused ahead of 1.1400. Germany will release economic sentiment figures at 09:00 GMT (negative forecast). Support is at 1.1350, 1.1318 and 1.1280. Further resistance us at 1.1460.

Pound is approaching resistance levels, but has some room for growth. GBP/USD has once again risen above the 200-day MA at 1.5320. As long as cable is above this point, it has a chance to rise to resistance is at 1.5380 ahead of 1.5435. The UK will release September inflation data at 08:30 GMT. Later in the day, there will be comments from the Bank of England’s officials. Support is at 1.5320 and then at 1.5278 and 1.5250.

USD/JPY was trading in the 120.15 area. In the absence of news from the United States and Japan the pair will be driven by the market’s risk sentiment. Lower than expected Chinese trade balance will bring it to 119.70 and probably to 119.25. Resistance is at 120.90/121.00.

AUD/USD rose to the top of the daily Ichimoku Cloud and the 100-day MA in the 0.7370 area. The pair has almost reached 38.2% Fibo of the decline since May and is overbought. The publication of China’s trade balance data is a risk for a bullish Aussie. Support is at 0.7275 and 0.7200. Resistance is at 0.7385 and 0.7440.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6717

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Yen strengthening
13 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair ended up again next to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud during yesterday's trading session. The bears are increasing pressure and trying to break the cloud downwards, which is why, the Senkou Span A and B lines cannot reinforce its bullish character. More to that, the pair has gotten into the negative zone this morning, which could affect further trading since consolidation under the cloud may mean the end of the bulls' attempts to recover the market.

Technical levels: support – 119.60; resistance – 120.00.

Trade recommendations: off the market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6719

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Aussie at new heights
13 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair formed a new extremum for the past month yesterday. Due to quite agressive actions of the bulls the currency pair rate has soared under the 74th figure, breaking the last week's high of 0.7340. Bullish sentiment persists in the market, but this morning, we are witnessing the rate's decline into the Tenkan-Kijun channel. Obviously, the market needs a little rest to resume the uptrend. Testing of the Kijun-sen line levels is probable to be followed by the pair's new dash to the 0.7430/40 mark.

Technical levels: support – 0.7270; resistance – 0.7380, 0.7400.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7280; SL — 0.7260; TP1 — 0.7400; TP2 — 0.7430.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6718

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 13

Trade positions of Danske Bank: not so many changed from Monday.

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1230

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.10, TAKE PROFIT 121.33, STOP LOSS 119.55

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

EUR/JPY:Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.03

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 183.10, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.95

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6815, STOP LOSS 0.6530

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5275, TAKE PROFIT 1.5449, STOP LOSS 1.5210

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9660, TAKE PROFIT 0.9482, STOP LOSS 0.9741

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7140

EUR/CAD: SHORT stopped, possibly sell

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6725

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 15

By Kira Iukhtenko

US figures on Wednesday pulled the US Dollar down below the 94.50 support. Retail sales and PPI disappointed the markets and lowered expectations for a rate hike in 2015. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US CPI and the Philly Fed manufacturing index. US currency is expected to stay under pressure until the end of the week.

EUR/USD is testing new highs above the 1.1400 mark. As you may see from the H4 chart, trend resistance has been broken today. We still target the 1.1500 mark and expect the pullback from here. Pay attention to the 55-week SMA at 1.1440 – this is a strong resistance.

GBP/USD chart remains highly volatile. After a drop by 100 points on Tuesday, the pair gained almost 200 points on Wednesday. With the bulls now dominating the market, we now see space for growth to 1.5500. Support is seen at 1.5380 and 1.5330.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6744

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG from 1.1320, TAKE PROFIT 1.1561, STOP LOSS 1.1263 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 119.46, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.59

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9301 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9601

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0 .7140

USD/CAD: Hold SHORTfrom 1.3030, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3081

NZD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6882 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.6610 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG from 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0865

EUR/GBP:Hold LONG from 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7525 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7380 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG from 136.05, TAKE PROFIT 137.61, STOP LOSS 135.39 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY

GBP/JPY: BUY at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 185.93, STOP LOSS 182.29

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4795, TAKE PROFIT 1.5158, STOP LOSS 1.4675

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6750

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 16

The market’s sentiment is very changeable as it swings by the influence of data releases. US inflation data for September came in line with expectations with the core figures slightly exceeding forecast. All in all, traders were preparing for worse, so US dollar performed better after the figures came out. American unemployment claims turned out to be better than expected, though Empire State manufacturing index disappointed. On Friday, the United States will release industrial production and consumer sentiment data.

EUR/USD has almost reached 1.1500, but then was aggressively sold off. The euro was hit by comments of the European Central Bank’s Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny that the ECB is missing its inflation target and additional instruments are needed. Such talk increased the speculation of additional easing from the central bank. A close below 1.1400 will open the way for further declines. Support is at 1.1350 and 1.1315/00. Resistance is at 1.1460, 1.1500 and 1.1540.

GBP/USD was correcting after big gains on Wednesday and as it reached resistance in the 1.5500 zone (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5380 and 1.5320 (200-day MA). Above this point the pound retains potential for more upside. Resistance is at 1.5540 and 1.5600. MPC member Forbes will speak at 10:30 GMT.

USD/JPY fell to the 118.05 area. A close above 118.50 will allow the pair to recover to 119.50/70. Further resistance is at 120.35/50. On the downside, support is at 117.00. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda will speak at 06:35 GMT.

AUD/USD made another test of the 100-day MA at 0.7360. Australian dollar was supported by the better risk sentiment on the expectations that the US Fed won’t raise rates this year. However, Australian employment declined in September. Resistance of the 2014-2015 trend in the 0.7400 area will be hard for the bulls to break. The pair may retest strong support in the 0.7200/7180 zone which guards the way to 0.7100. The Reserve Bank of Australian will release Financial Stability Review early on Friday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6757

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 19-25

Kira Iukhtenko

New week on the financial markets started with a bunch of Chinese releases. China’s economy rose more than expected in Q3, lowering uncertainty and leaving space for a Fed’s rate hike in 2015.

In our view view, the US dollar has room for recovery on the new week. Unexpectedly strong CPI released last week, upbeat quarterly corporate reports, improvement of the global sentiment – all that supports the ide of a rate hike in December. For now, the chance for that is around 30%. You should also note that the net USD longs decline to a 15-months low. The correction was deep enough no mitigate the oversold conditions for the greenback.

US economic calendar on the new week is rather light. The only events to watch are the housing market news on Tuesday. The Fed’s officials will deliver their last speeches before the October 28th meeting during the week. Yanet Yellen is scheduled to speak on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6775

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 19-25

By Elizabeth Belugina

In line with our expectations, the euro continued going up after it had broken above August-September resistance line. The European currency was supported by the market’s negative risk sentiment and weaker-than-expected US economic data. However, EUR/USD failed to overcome resistance in the 1.1500 area and went abruptly down on the dovish comments of the ECB Governing Council member Nowotny.

The first half of the next week will be relatively light on economic data from both Europe and the United States. All in all, the focus will be on the euro area. One has to pay great attention to the European Central Bank’s meeting and press conference on Thursday. Ahead of the meeting, the euro will clearly remain under pressure, as there is a chance that the regulator will make announcements about the monetary easing. Trading after the meeting will naturally depend on what the ECB president Mario Draghi says. The risks for the euro area bearish. Note that the euro area will also release flash manufacturing and services PMIs on Friday. If the ECB’s position doesn’t become clearer, the market will make its judgment on the basis of these data. The figures are unlikely to be very bright. The speculators’ short positions on euro have contracted, and now the single currency will be more vulnerable to the negative data.

China’s weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday did not provide a push higher for the euro: negative sentiment is smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China. Support is at 1.1260, 1.1215 and 1.1170. Resistance is at 1.1400, 1.1460 and 1.1500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6778

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 19-25

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week USD/JPY tested lower levels in the 118.05 area. It happened as traders pulled the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike further into future. Thus, the greenback lost its main bullish driver. Moreover, demand for the Japanese yen as a safe haven was rather strong. By the end of the week, however, risk sentiment has somewhat improved, and a bullish ‘hammer’ candle was formed on the pair’s daily chart.

The US dollar is still supported by the monetary policy divergence between the US and Japan: American economic data became better, and even with the Fed’s rate hike expectations diminished it’s clear that the Unites States will be the first to tighten policy. In addition, Japan lowered its assessment of the economy and industrial production last week. Still, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda once again sounded optimistic about Japanese economy and inflation on Friday. Japan’s unwillingness to add monetary stimulus is limiting USD/JPY on the upside. As a result, the pair is doomed to continue its sideways movement.

Next week Japanese economic calendar is almost empty: it will be the calm before the storm of the Bank of Japan’s meeting on October 30. There will not be many data from the US either. As a result, risk sentiment will be the main market mover. China released weak GDP and industrial production data released on Monday, but negative sentiment was smoothed out by the expectations of additional monetary easing from the People’s Bank of China.

The bears failed to make USD/JPY fix below 118.50. It emphasizes the fact that there is demand for the American currency in this area. Further support is at 117.00 (support line since 2012). Resistance is at 120.00, 120.35 and 120.90.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6777

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 20

By Elizabeth Belugina

The market’s risk sentiment was influenced by China. The nation’s Q3 GDP growth slowed down from 7% to 6.9%, the lowest reading since 2009, though slightly above expectations of 6.8%. China’s industrial production growth pace decline from 6.1% to 5.7% (forecast: 6.0%). Fixed asset investment also disappointed. Still, there was no rush in safe havens as the market expects the People’s Bank of China to step in with additional monetary stimulus.

On Tuesday pay attention to the US housing data at 12:30 GMT (USD will benefit from a good reading) and the speeches of the FOMC members at 13:00-13:15 GMT and Janet Yellen (15:00 GMT).

EUR/USD slid towards 1.1300. The upcoming meeting of the European Central Bank on Thursday creates negative pressure on the euro. We prefer short positions on the euro. Support is at 1.1300, 1.1260 and 1.1215.

GBP/USD is once again testing resistance in the 1.5490 area (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5415/00 and as long as it holds we can’t rule out a thrust up to further resistance is at 1.5545 and 1.5600. Below 1.5400 support will be at 1.5380 and 1.5235. The Bank of England’s MPC member McCafferty will speak at 09:45 GMT and Governor Carney will take the stage at 10:00 GMT. Expect more volatility to come. UK labor market data last week were not very bad, so it’s interesting how Carney will comment on that. On Friday MPC member Forbes claimed that a rate hike in Britain would come sooner rather than later.

USD/JPY is little changed in the 119.30 area. The expectations of an increase in the Bank of Japan’s monetary stimulus this month have declined and the pair’s recovery will likely be limited. Support is at 119.00, 118.70 and 118.05. Resistance is at 119.65, 120.00 and 120.90.

AUD/USD tested 0.7300, but failed to break higher and will likely retreat to lower levels. Negative Chinese data finally sank in. Support is at 0.7235, 0.7200 (strong level) and 0.7160. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting will be released early on Tuesday. Resistance is at 0.7350, 0.7380 and 0.7440.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6788

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/JPY: weekly wave analysis
20 October 2015

Roman Petuchov

Weekly. Beginning part of the new bullish impulse [3] is now being formed. Let's see the markup on the H4 chart.

H4. After the end of the bullish impulse , we've seen a decline in a new corrective wave [ii]. It will be over this week. Afterwards we'll see a bullish move.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6800

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GOLD: weekly wave analysis
20 October 2015

Daily. The pair keeps forming the final part of the long sloping triangle. We see the development of the bullish zigzag [E]. The pair is currently forming the end of this wave.

H4. The market is forming the final upwards impulse (C). It seems that in the previous days the pair has formed the wave 4, which looks complete. As a result, in the near term we expect the pair to go up in the wave 5.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6799

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for Oct 20

Open positions:*

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9302, STOP LOSS 0.9601

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 135.60, TAKE PROFIT 133.44, STOP LOSS 136.10

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4715, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4855

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 182.75

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7195

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.95, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 118.02

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5315

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400 (revised)

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0925

NZD/USD: BUY at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

____________________________________________________________

*Danske bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6801

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Trading plan for October 21

By Kira Iukhtenko

Forex economic calendar on Wednesday, October 21, is rather light. Pay special attention to the Bank of Canada meeting. Interest rate is expected to be left at 0.5%. However, the press-conference could bring a bunch of negative surprises for the Canadian economy. USD/CAD traded under pressure on Tuesday, but we are ready to go LONG on a fix above 1.3000 and with an initial target at 1.3060. Break higher will confirm an inverse “head-and-shoulders” formation and will be a broader bullish sign. Support lies at 1.2900.

Another attractive pair to trade in the coming sessions is GBP/USD. We advise going LONG on a fix above 1.5500 targeting 1.5580 (38.2% Fibonacci). Key support lies at 1.5410/00. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney will deliver a speech on Wednesday, while on Thursday the market will focus on the UK retail sales. Upbeat forecast could become a growth driver for the cable.

The major event of the week is the European Central bank meeting on Thursday. Rates are expected to stay on hold at 0.05%, while the Mario Draghi could deliver a cart of dovish comments later in the day or even announce an additional QE. EUR/USD break below the trend line at 1.1330 is a good moment to go SHORT. Major support is now seen at 1.1250 – break below will confirm the end of the mid-term bullish phase. Resistance – 55-week MA at 1.1450.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6805

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.0850
21 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• AUD/NZD reached sell target 1.0700
• Next buy target - 1.0850

AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone (which also previously reversed the second intermediate wave (2) in May) lying between the support levels 1.0700 (sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.0600. This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from the middle of September).

AUD/NZD is likely to correct up further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.0850. Strong support zone remains between price levels 1.0700 and 1.0600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6812

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: buy target - 121.00
21 October 2015
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• USD/JPY reversed from pivotal support level 118.60
• Next buy target - 121.00

USD/JPY continues to rise inside the 3rd minor impulse wave – which started previously – when the pair reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 118.60 (which has been reversing the price from the start of September). The last three upward reversals from this support level created the following Japanese candlestick reversal patterns (highlighted below) – Morning Star, Long-legged Doji and most recently – it created the daily Hammer.

USD/JPY is expected to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which is a part of the intermediate impulse wave (5) from the end of August) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 121.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6811

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 21

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1350, TAKE PROFIT 1.1495, STOP LOSS 1.1290

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.60, TAKE PROFIT 120.57, STOP LOSS 119.12

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9540, TAKE PROFIT 0.9302, STOP LOSS 0.9601 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7218, TAKE PROFIT 0.7497, STOP LOSS 0.7195

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2970, TAKE PROFIT 1.3177, STOP LOSS 1.2870

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 136.22, TAKE PROFIT 133.99, STOP LOSS 136.76

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7335, TAKE PROFIT 0.7197, STOP LOSS 0.7400

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4715, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4855

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 183.20, TAKE PROFIT 187.37, STOP LOSS 183.45

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6745, TAKE PROFIT 0.6937, STOP LOSS 0.6680

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5405, TAKE PROFIT 1.5659, STOP LOSS 1.5315

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0865, TAKE PROFIT 1.0713, STOP LOSS 1.0925

_____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6813