Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: sell target - 0.7200
24 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/USD reached sell target 0.7450
-Next sell target - 0.7200

AUD/USD continues to decline after the pair earlier broke through the support level 0.7450, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The pair earlier reversed up to test the former support level 0.7450 (acting as resistance now after it was broken) – from where the price reversed down sharply with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing, as you can see below.

AUD/USD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7200 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (3)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5868

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1400
24 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 2.1400

GBP/AUD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier breakout of the resistance level 2.1000 (which was set as the buy target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair). The pair recently reversed up from the support zone lying between the aforementioned price level 2.1000 (acting as support now after it was broken), the upper channel line of the wide up channel from 2014 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier upward impulse from the end of wave (ii).

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further inside the active impulse wave (iii) toward the next buy target at 2.1400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5869

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar attempted to overcome the 98 resistance, but was dragged lower by the mixed corporate earnings. US exporters suffered from the expensive currency and weak demand from overseas. However, on Thursday the market was cheered up by the jobless claims – the indicator unexpectedly fell to a 40-year low, confirming the economic recovery.

On the new week, we’ll focus on the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday. No rate hike is expected, but the market will be tracking the monetary policy statement’s tone. Futures market is currently pricing in a 19% chance of a hike in September and a 56% chance of a hike in December. Any hawkish hints will push the currency to the upside.

Thursday will become another important day for the greenback – Q2 GDP is on the schedule. According to the official forecast, the US economy rose by 2.5% q/q from April to June, while analysts at Barclays forecast a more than 3% growth. This is going to be a huge progress after a 0.2% dip in Q1.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5873

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2
24 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

The unofficial race between the Fed and the BOE to become the first bank who will hike rates has resumed. Hawkish Monetary policy committee minutes released last week strengthened the market expectations for a UK rate hike in November 2015. British economists switched their focus to the risk of an inflation rally. However, for now the UK CPI stays at 0%, creating some skeptics on the market.

This week traders were also disappointed by the downbeat retail sales. The indicator fell by 0.2%, confirming the slowdown in economic activity. On the new week the economic calendar is rather light with the UK GDP in focus on Tuesday. Economic growth is expected to have accelerated from 0.4% in Q1 to 0.7% in Q2.

GBP/USD will be driven by the news from the States and UK. For now, the pair stays in a medium-term bullish channel. Break below the major support of 1.5400 could confirm the bearish dominance. Resistance is seen at 1.5670.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5874

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

By Elizaveta Belugina

Will Greece continue affecting EUR/USD or is the market already done with this topic?

In the past week Greek parliament has approved the second reform package demanded by the creditors in return for financial aid. This second set of measures was less austere than the previous one, so it was passed more easily. Next week the Greeks will be safe from tough decisions as further controversial discussions will take place only in August.

The market’s focus in the coming days will switch to the United States where the Federal Reserve will announce its monetary policy decision on Wednesday. There will be some rather important releases in the euro area like German Ifo business climate on Monday and the region’s inflation figures on Friday. However, these publications won’t have much of an influence on the current setup: the Fed is clearly moving closer to policy tightening, while the European Central Bank will continue quantitative easing (QE). In addition, investors will be aware of more uncertainty which will emerge from Greece next month: the negotiations on Greek debt relief won’t be easy, and political tensions in the nation itself will intensify.

Forecast: As a result, traders have little reason to buy the single currency. EUR/USD ran into resistance of the daily Ichimoku Cloud’s bottom and 100-day MA in the 1.10 area and will likely slide to 1.08 or even 1.07. Next resistance is at 1.1050, 1.1125 and 1.1215.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5877

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for Jul 27 - Aug 2

By Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY got stuck between 124.50 and 123.50. What will its next move be like?

The advance of the US dollar has stalled in the past week as traders took profit on their bullish positions. The Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda talked down the possibility of further monetary stimulus in Japan. In addition, volatility at gold market and weaker-than-expected data from China contributed to demand for the yen as a safe haven, though some progress reached in Greece brought some relief.

Next week Japan will release retail sales data on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday. As the recent economic readings from Japan have been mediocre, it looks like the nation will have at least to keep its current extremely loose monetary policy, if not add additional stimulus. This won’t let the yen strengthen much. Moreover, USD/JPY will be driven primarily by the Federal Reserve’s monetary announcement on Wednesday and American GDP release on Thursday.

Forecast: As American yields will likely rise ahead and after these releases, the best strategy is to buy USD/JPY on the dips. Furthersupportisat 122.85/50 and 121.50. Note, however, that resistance at 125.00 will be a big obstacle for the bulls: only very hawkish Fed’s statement or extraordinary high US economic growth could push the pair above this level. Also keep in mind that the negotiations on Trans-Pacific Partnership will be at decisive stage on July 28-31 and too high dollar exchange rate will be very unwelcome for a success of these talks.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5878

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
27 July 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 2bln), 1.0850 (1bln), 1.0900 (1.2bln), 1.1000 (1.3bln);

GBP/USD: 1.5750 (GBP 240m);

USD/JPY: 122.50 (USD 550m), 124.00 (320m), 125.00 (300m);

USD/CAD: 1.3100 (USD 250m), 1.3200 (450m);

NZD/USD: 0.6660 (NZD 270m).

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3192

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 27

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 123.95, TAKE PROFIT 122.92, STOP LOSS 124.55

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5510, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5450

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2991, TAKE PROFIT 1.3166, STOP LOSS 1.2905

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4490, STOP LOSS 1.4220

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6675, TAKE PROFIT 0.6459, STOP LOSS 0.6665

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0530, TAKE PROFIT 1.0675, STOP LOSS 1.0499

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7329, TAKE PROFIT 0.7066, STOP LOSS 0.7382

GBP/JPY: POSSIBLY SELL

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5887

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 28

By Elizavbeth Belugina

Monday wasn’t a very successful day for the US dollar. Although durable goods orders for June came out better than expected (but figures for the previous months were revised to the downside), the greenback stayed at lows. Traders await other key events of the week: the Fed’s meeting on Wednesday and US GDP release on Thursday. Watch CB consumer confidence in America due at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1113. German Ifo Business Climate came out better than expected. The pair has reached 200-period MA at H4 and almost reached 55-day MA. There’s a short-term corrective uptrend: the overall decline will resume once it’s breached to the downside. Support is at 1.1000 and 1.0985. Resistance is at 1.1125 and 1.1200/15.

GBP/USD found support in the 1.5465/1.5500 area. UK will release preliminary Q2 GDP figures at 08:30 GMT. According to the forecasts, British economy growth has accelerated from 0.4% to 0.7%. Still, there are several resistance levels ahead, with the most important one at 1.5515/25 area (resistance line from June highs). This one will be hard to break ahead of the Fed and the US GDP. Further support is at 1.5410/00.

USD/JPY is quickly slipping down as demand for the yen as a safe haven went up due to another crash of Chinese stocks. Support is at 122.90, 112.50 and 122.00. The pair may slide towards 122.00 on the negative risk sentiment, but data from the US later this week should offer an opportunity to but it on the dips. Resistance is at 123.70 and 123.90/124.00.

AUD/USD remains near Friday lows. Resistance is at 0.7370 and 0.7400 (psychological level). Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7200. Aussie’s stabilization will be short-lived as the currency lacks bullish drivers in the risk-off environment.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5898

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis
28 July 2015

Daily. Gold continues developing within the sloping triangle within which we are seeing formation of the final part of the wave [D]. When this wave is complete, the market will start new upward correction [E]. Let’s analyze the chart in greater detail.

H4. When the wave was over [iii], the market started developing a small correction [iv]. The price will spend in this wave the whole day and probably some of the next days as the fourth wave may take form of a prolonged flat. When this wave is complete, we'll see the final decline within the downward impulse [v]. The approximate trajectory of the upcoming move is shown at the chart.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5907

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY is being corrected in the cloud
28 July 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

Bulls could not keep the exchange rate of the currency pair USD/JPY in the positive area. Negative attitudes appeared at the end of last week: the breakdown of the support of Ichimoku cloud top, followed by the strengthening of the dead cross only intensified the bearish pressure on the pair. This thing led to a sharp drop of prices on Monday to support of 123.00.

Today, there is an intensification of buyers on the market, but so far it seems only a short-term correction after yesterday's fall. Indeed, Tenkan and Kijun lines are in no hurry to cancel the effect of the dead cross. Therefore, after testing their resistance around 123.50/60, the market may continue to decrease in the short-term and go down to the area of 122.40. If a breakdown occurs the resistance, we will expect a quick resumption of the primary uptrend.

Technical levels: Support - 123.00, 122.40; Resistance - 123.50.

Trading recommendations:

1. Sell - 123.50; SL - 123.70; TP1 - 123.00; TP2 - 122.40.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5900

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 29

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar recovered on Wednesday, but didn’t fix above the mid-body of the previous bearish candle. CB сonsumer confidence came significantly below expectations (90.9 vs. 100.1). The FOMC meeting will definitely be the highlight of Wednesday. The selloff at Chinese stock market has increased uncertainty about the Fed’s position plus traders aren’t very encouraged by the recent US economic data, so they were closing bullish USD positions. Still, taking into account the recent comments of the FOMC members, the possibility of a more hawkish tone of the US remains on the table. We’ll likely see American currency consolidate ahead of the Fed’s announcement as many will stay out of the market. Also watch stocks and the market’s risk sentiment as they will have a direct impact on the currency market.

EUR/USD has breached the short-term downtrend and keeps trading above 1.10. The reason of the euro’s relative strength is that it is G10 currency with low yield, something that investors choose to escape from risks. Greece started technical talks with its creditors about the third bailout program. GfK German Consumer Climate is due at 06:00 GMT. Support is at 1.1000, 1.0985 and 1.0935. Resistance at 1.1125 still guards the way to 1.1200/15. The pair may stay in the 1.10/1.11 range ahead of the Fed’s meeting.

GBP/USD rose to $1.5618. British GDP growth accelerated in line with expectations, to 0.7% in Q2. The pound has approached a bunch of resistance levels (1.5640 – 1.5670 – 1.5700), which will be hard to break: these levels have been capping the cable the whole July. Support is at 1.5560, 1.5460 ahead of 1.5400.

USD/JPY was supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud, the top of which is located in the 123.00 area. Still, the pair has to rise above 123.90/124.00 to retest 125.00. Support is at 123.00, 122.50 and 122.00.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7326 as the situation at Chinese stock market has a bit improved. However, Aussie remains vulnerable to the downside. Resistance remains at 0.7370 and 0.7400. Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5911

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: buy targets - 124.30 and 125.50
29 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from support zone
-Next buy targets - 124.30 and 125.50

USD/JPY continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 123.00 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp (a)-wave from the start of July (which broke the previous daily down channel from June). The upward reversal from this support area created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line (highlighted below).

USD/JPY is expected to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets at 124.30 (top of wave (a)) and 125.50 (this level reversed previous impulse 1).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5914

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: sell target - 1.0800
29 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD falls inside (c)-wave
-Next sell target - 1.0800

AUD/NZD has been falling strongly in the last few trading sessions inside the (c)-wave of the minor ABC correction B from the start of this month. This (c)-wave started earlier- when the pair failed to break above the strong resistance level 1.1400. The price then broke through the support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of March and the support level 1.1000 (which stopped earlier (a)-wave)).

With the clear bearish divergence visible on the daily RSI indicator - AUD/NZD can be expected to fall further in the active (c)-wave toward the next sell target at the support level 1.0800.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5915

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 30

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Federal Reserve’s statement on Wednesday didn’t offer much information. Initially traders were a bit disappointed not to see a direct date of the first rate hike, but deep down no one actually expected the Fed to be so clear and unambiguous. Traders will be looking at future data releases for indication that they will allow the Fed to start raising rates in September. On Thursday there will be one such release. The market’s attention will be focused on the bunch of US statistics at 12:30 GMT: first release of American Q2 GDP (forecast: 2.6%), trade balance and unemployment claims (forecast: 268K). US dollar has upside potential versus other currencies.

EUR/USD breached support at 1.1020 forming a top and may slide to 1.0925/00. There may be some support at 1.0985 and 1.0950. Resistance is at 1.1065 and 1.1095/1.1100.

GBP/USD was once again rejected down from the levels just below 1.5700. A shooting star on the daily chart will pull the price down to 1.5500.

USD/JPY once again approached 124.00. Resistance is at 124.50 and 125.00. Support is at 123.30/00.

AUD/USD was rejected down ahead of resistance at 0.7370. Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens will speak at 00:30 GMT. Australia will release building approvals at 01:30 GMT (forecast is negative). Bearishtargetislocatedat 0.7230/00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5922

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
30 July 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0950 (EUR 647m), 1.0960 (1bln), 1.1000 (1.4bln), 1.1090/1.1100 (1.1bln);

GBP/USD: 1.5500 (GBP 547m), 1.5605 (429m);

USD/JPY: 122.50 (USD 710m), 124.00 (886m), 125.00 (402m);

AUD/USD: 0.7250 (AUD 358m);

NZD/USD: 0.6565 (NZD 278m), 0.6600 (251m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7100 (EUR 616m), 0.7250 (402m);

EUR/JPY: 136.25 (EUR 240m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3231

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 31

By Elizaveta Belugina

US GDP came in a bit below expectations: in Q2 American economy rose by 2.3% (forecast +2.6%). US economic growth is high enough to show that the US economy has strengthened after the weaker Q1. GDP change in Q1 was revised up from -0.2% to +0.6%. The number of unemployment claims was as expected (267K), below 2015 average that is a good thing.

US dollar should remain mostly supported after the releases as the expectations of the upcoming Federal Reserve rate hike remain well in place. On Friday America will release Chicago PMI (13:45 GMT) and revised consumer sentiment (14:00 GMT). However, gains in USD can be rather small on Friday as traders will be tired after previous volatile days, and some other currencies will put up a fight against the greenback.

For instance, after forming a shooting star candle on Wednesday GBP/USD managed to stay in the 1.5600 area. Still, the inability of the bulls to overcome resistance at 1.5700 shows their weakness. Below the trendline support at 1.5520 the decline will proceed to 1.5460 and 1.5400. No news will come out of the UK on Friday.

EUR/USD slid towards 1.0910. Further support is at 1.0870 and 1.0820 (bottom of the 3-month range). According to the article released in Financial Times the IMF won’t take part in Greek third bailout at this point because of the nation’s high debt and the history of reform failures. That’s a bad news for the single currency. In the euro area watch for flash inflation figures at 09:00 GMT.

USD/JPY almost reached 124.60. Support is at 123.70 and 123.00. Above 124.50 the pair may gather strength for an advance to 125.00 and 125.85, but the way up won’t be easy.

AUD/USD reached target at 0.7260 (minimums of the beginning of the week). Australia will release producer price index at 00:30 GMT. Aussie’s decline has slowed down and is accompanied by consolidation. Support is at 0.7200, while resistance lies at 0.7300 and 0.7350.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5934

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD: forecast for August 3-9

By Elizaveta Belugina

Does the American currency have enough strength for further growth?

US dollar index (DXY)

During the past week, US dollar recovered after the initial dip. There were some minor changes in the Federal Reserve’s language compared to June: the central bank acknowledged improvement of the labor market. Although American GDP for Q2 came slightly below expectations, US economic growth was solid in April-June. In addition, there was a positive revision of the Q1 growth figures, while inflation and consumption picked in the next 3 months.As a result, many traders expect the Fed to start raising rates as early as in September.

In our view, the Fed was cautious, but optimistic and did not mention Chinese problems – a hawkish thing. The possibility of September rate hike did increase, although the chance is still around 50:50. There is no common message from American statistics: non-farm payrolls (NFP) are at the positive territory for the longest period ever, but wage growth lags and business investment remains weak. The fact that the Fed has voiced its intention to start raising rates earlier, but making the increases smaller, is in favor of USD bulls.

The market’s view of the Fed and US dollar will depend on the upcoming economic data. If NFP comes above 200K and unemployment falls to 5%, expectations of a hike in the first autumn month will strongly increase.

Positive expectations will likely support USD in the coming week. However, its gains may be limited until Friday as the currency is overbought and the Fed’s September meeting is still rather far away.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5946

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for August 3-9

By Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY dipped to the 123.00 area, but then recovered to 124.50. Is the pair capable of a strong break to the upside?

The expectations of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike drove the greenback up. However, traders are cautious on the approach to 125.00 remembering that the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda has recently rejected the necessity for further monetary stimulus in Japan. Japanese inflation data came out mixed: nationwide core CPI rose by 0.1% in June exceeding forecasts, but Tokyo core CPI fell by the same amount in July. Traders are sure that the Bank of Japan will at least keep its current very loose monetary policy firm in place. However, this may not be enough for the pair’s decisive break to the upside.

The bulls will be less active above 124.50. There is a risk of verbal interventions from Japanese authorities at these levels.

Next week pay attention to the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Friday and to plenty of important US economic releases. The market’s risk sentiment will be another thing to watch. Chinese stock market once again crashed on Monday and will show the biggest monthly decline in 6 years. Further concerns about China will strengthen the yen as a safe haven.

Overall, we do not think that it is a good idea to buy USD/JPY close to 125.00. Support is at 123.35/00 – in this area the pair looks better prices for longs.

USD/JPY, Daily

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for August 3-9

By Elizaveta Belugina

British pound is trying hard to fight US dollar’s strength.

GBP/USD was sticking to the 1.5550 area. The bears were not very active despite good news from the US. The reason is that like the Federal Reserve, the Bank of England is also close to raising interest rates. In line with expectations, British economic growth has accelerated in Q2. Although growth is fueled by the service sector and not manufacturing, recent hawkish comments of the central bank’s official make investors rather positive about the pound.

Next week the UK will release three PMIs – manufacturing, construction and services. On Thursday, the Bank of England will publish its quarterly inflation report. As you may remember, British inflation was heavily hit in the previous months, but, according to the regulator, it was due to the falling oil prices, and without their disturbing impact inflation is OK. Moreover, for the first time ever the Bank of England’s meeting minutes will be released right after the meeting. The market will expect at least two members of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee to vote for the rate hike, which is bullish for GBP. Surely, such abundance of data on Thursday will need comments from the top officials, so Governor Mark Carney will give a press conference.

We expect great volatility in GBP/USD. The risk for pound will be to the upside. Strong resistance lies at 1.5700 – many times the bulls failed to overcome this psychological mark. If GBP/USD manages to fix above this point, it could rise to 1.5900/30 (June high). Support is seen at 1.5500 and 1.5400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5948