Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CHF: buy target - 0.7400
7 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CHF rises inside minor ABC correction 4
-Next buy target - 0.7400

AUD/CHF continues to rise inside the minor ABC correction 4 – the (a) and the (c) waves of this ABC correction started earlier - when the pair reversed up from the strong support zone surrounding the support level 0.6950. This support zone was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band. The latest two reversals from this support zone created the two daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns Morning Star and Hammer.

With the clear bullish divergence visible on the daily Stochastic - AUD/CHF is expected to break the nearby resistance level 0.7250 – after which the pair is likely to rise to the next buy target 0.7400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6010

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 August 2015

Daily. The shape of the final wave area made it clear that the development of the corrective wave (4) is not over yet. This wave will likely take form of the protracted double Triple W-X-Y. The pair is currently forming the final part of the wave X.

H4. The wave X is a rather complex formation, which consists of double Zigzags. The most important thing is that this week we expect the final part of the upward correction , after which the price will resume downward movement in the impulse [c]. When the entire wave X is over, we will see an increase.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6029

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 August 2015

Daily. The downward Zigzag Y keeps developing. After the upside correction was over, the pair started moving in new bearish impulse [C].

H4. Correction (2) looks complete. After this wave we saw a small downward impulse 1. In the new week we expect new upward correction 2 to this impulse. Then the decline will resume.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6030

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 11

By Elizabeth Belugina

The US dollar is generally strong after Friday’s non-farm payrolls release. However, traders are selling the greenback versus the euro and the pound. It happens as the number of USD longs is very large, and some players take profit on good news from America. In the meantime, the situation in the euro area has temporary stabilized, while pound is supported by the fact that the Bank of England, despite the disappointment at its August meeting, will be the second central bank after the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates. Watch for the comments of the Fed’s members later on Monday and US unit labor costs at 12:30 GMT on Tuesday.

EUR/USD is contained by 1.0980. A break above this level will lead the single currency up to 1.1012 and 1.1050. Support is at 1.0950, 1.0925 and 1.0900 ahead of a strong support in the 1.0800 area. The euro area’s Sentix investor confidence came below expectations. On Tuesday watch German ZEW economic sentiment, the forecast is positive. The best strategy is to open small shorts on the spikes to the upside.

GBP/USD recovered to the previous support at 1.5550, which is now acting as resistance. Above this level, cable will be able to rise to 1.5580 and 1.5615 (the breached support line). Support is at 1.5465 and 1.5425.

USD/JPY keeps trading below the psychological mark of 125.00. We will likely see more consolidation between this level and 124.00. Next support is at 123.50.

AUD/USD has been testing levels above resistance levels since May and the psychologically important level of 0.7400. Negative data from China makes it more difficult for AUD bulls to press higher. Above 0.7425 Aussie could rise to 0.7450 and 0.7490. Support is at 0.7360 and 0.7330. Watch the release of NAB business confidence at 01:30 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6040

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1400
11 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 2.1400

GBP/AUD continues to rise – after the recent sharp upward reversal from the strong support zone lying between the support level 2.0920 (which earlier reversed the pair in July), the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp impulse wave (v) from June. The upward reversal from this support zone stopped the previous (c)-wave of the active minor ABC correction 4.

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further in the active intermediate impulse wave (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.1400 (which reversed the previous minor impulse 3 in July).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6044

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Dollar strengthening against Yen
11 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair consolidated above the four-hour Tenkan and Kijun lines support, 124.60, yesterday. Today, the pair is showing positive movement, recovering into the previous-week resistance area - 125.00.

The overall situation looks welcoming for purchases. Indeed, the Tenkan and Kijun lines have kept the positive influence of the golden cross. The Ichimoku cloud has also retained its bullish character, despite the Senkou Span A and B lines lateral movement.

Technical levels: support – 124.60; resistance – 125.00.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 124.80; SL — 124.60; TP1 — 125.60; TP2 — 126.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6043

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Aussie losing ground
11 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair has failed to keep in the positive area. During today's Asian session, the pair dropped sharply after the Chinese data release, losing by over a figure. At the moment, trades are carried out slightly above the 73rd figure support, under the Ichimoku cloud.

The main uptrend is obvious to change soon as well: the cloud has already started narrowing down. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have already canceled the golden cross action and are now set for further decrease.

In the near future, trades are likely to continue within consolidation, in close proximity to the cloud's lower border.

Technical levels: support – 0.7300; resistance – 0.7340.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6042

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 12

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar was supported on Tuesday by the decision of the People’s Bank of China to devalue the yuan. Chinese central bank has given a new boost to the global currency wars. The news is most negative for the commodity currencies – AUD, NZD, and CAD.

American currency should feel well after good NFP data, but as it has already strengthened a lot, there’s a risk that large short positions will get partially covered making USD lose some of its strength.

Comments from the Federal Reserve don’t bring much clarity about the central bank’s plans for September. In addition, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart said on Monday the Fed is close to raising short-term interest rates, possibly as soon as September, noting the economy is “approaching an acceptable normal.” Fed Vice Chairman Stanley Fischer said the central bank won’t raise interest rates until inflation has returned to normal. On Wednesday FOMC member Dudley will speak at 12:30 GMT. Earlier Dudley used to cite various risks for the US economy. In the meantime, Unit labor costs rose by 0.5% vs. 0.0% expected. That’s a positive thing for American inflation and USD.

EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1050. Greek government said that it had reached an agreement with its international creditors on the terms of the third bailout program, although there are some details still to be resolved. Although the creditor nations didn’t confirm this, traders seem quite optimistic about the temporary resolution of the Greek crisis. As a result, euro may spike to 1.1100 and 1.1130/40. Support lies at 1.0990, 0.0950 and 1.0900.

GBP/USD is held by 1.5615. Above this level another leg higher towards 1.5700 is possible. The UK will release labor market data at 08:30 GMT on Wednesday. Still, according to the forecasts, the figures won’t be very exciting. On the downside the key levels are at 1.5500 and 1.5465.

USD/JPY is once again testing 125.00. For now, it looks like US currency doesn’t have enough drivers to fix above this point, so we expect further consolidation. Support is at 124.50, 124.00 and 123.65.

AUD/USD fell affected by the news from China. A close below 0.7315 will be bearish. On Wednesday watch Westpac consumer sentiment index at 00:30 GMT, Australian wage price index at 01:30 GMT and, most importantly, Chinese industrial production at 05:30 GMT.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6052

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 12

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.10, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 124.678 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9665, TAKE PROFIT 1.0010 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9790

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.1002 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0749

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: Look to BUY at 1.0990/85

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5515, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5453

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

USD/CAD: Look to BUY dips

EUR/JPY: BUY at 137.81, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 137.32

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7122, TAKE PROFIT 0.6894, STOP LOSS 0.7181

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6550, TAKE PROFIT 0.6357, STOP LOSS 0.6645

GBP/JPY: BUY at 193.19, TAKE PROFIT 195.88, STOP LOSS 192.19

_________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6061

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound trading inside cloud
12 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The harsh recovery of the British currency against the American recorded earlier this week has stalled. The GBP/USD currency pair rate stumbled against the four-hour Ichimoku cloud upper border resistance and trades are continued in the cloud area today. The bulls are yet taking advantage of the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines, but the major trend still remains bearish: the Ichimoku cloud is negative.

A break through the cloud is obvious to trigger a change of the major trend. However, if the bulls fail to force through the 56th figure, we will expect the rate to decline into the negative area.

Technical levels: support – 1.5560; resistance – 1.5600.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5570; SL — 1.5550; TP1 — 1.5670; TP2 — 1.5700.

2. Sell — 1.5550; SL — 1.5570; TP1 — 1.5480; TP2 — 1.5390.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6056

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Euro keeps strengthening
12 August 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

EURUSD consolidated above the Ichimoku cloud yesterday due to the growing positive sentiment in the market. Bouncing from the four-hour cloud upper border, the pair resumed growth and is again testing the powerful resistance slightly below the 11th figure this morning. The bulls are supported by the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines earlier this week, as well as by the positive cloud which changed its character during yesterday's session. At the same time, the Chinkou Span line is in the zone of overboughtness. Breaking through the 11th figure might turn out quite tough, consolidation at the current levels is possible.

Technical levels: support – 1.1050; resistance – 1.1100.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.1050; SL — 1.1030; TP1 — 1.1130; TP2 — 1.1180.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6055

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 13

By Eizabeth Belugina

China’s devaluation of the yuan, which acted as the bullish factor for the greenback in the first two days of the week, is now creating doubts on whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates soon. In addition, the number of job openings in the United States came out lower than expected.

On Thursday the market’s attention will be focused on the release of the US retail sales figures (12:30 GMT). The economists expect a 0.5% growth in both the headline and core indicators in July after a decline in June. Any disappointment will increase pressure on American currency, while its growth in case of positive figures should be limited.

EUR/USD rose above 1.1150 and is moving to 1.1200. The main driver of the pair is the dollar’s weakness, so euro may spike up more before the US data releases. Resistance is at 1.1215 (July 10 high) and 1.1245 (June 30 high). Support is at 1.1100/1088 and 1.1035. On Thursday Greek Parliament will vote to decide if the measures in the third bailout program will be implemented.

GBP/USD sipped to 1.5530 before recovering to 1.5615. UK labor market data came out mixed: the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month declined (GBP positive), though earnings growth has slowed down more than expected (GBP negative). The unemployment rate remained at 5.6% where it rose in the previous month. There will be no more important news from Britain this week. Resistance is at 1.5640 and 1.5690/5700. Below 1.5615 the pound will slide to 1.5400/5380.

USD/JPY managed to close above 125.00 on Tuesday, but was then still rejected down to 124.20. Support is at 123.65 guarding the way to 123.00.

AUD/USD spiked down to 0.7215 before recovering to 0.7387. Initially Aussie was affected by the news that China has once again set official yuan rate significantly lower. Still, the possibility of Aussie’s advance isn’t high. The psychological resistance is at 0.7400 and then at 0.7440. Support is at 0.7260 and 0.7215/00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6066

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
13 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 706m), 1.1150 (131m), 1.1200 (655m), 1.1245/50 (587m);

GBP/USD: 1.5540 (GBP 140m), 1.5650 (129m);

USD/JPY: 124.00 (USD 521m), 124.25 (200m), 125.00 (1.9bln), 125.50 (350m);

USD/CAD: 1.3015 (USD 130m);

AUD/USD: 0.7200 (AUD 1.3bln), 0.7400 (619m), 0.7440 (118m);

NZD/USD: 0.6595 (NZD 139m);

EUR/JPY: 138.25 (EUR 101m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7100 (EUR 2,2bln) 0.7205 (680m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3334

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CHF: buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500
13 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/CHF reversed from support zone
-Next buy targets - 1.5400 and 1.5500

GBP/CHF today reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 1.5200 (former major resistance level which reversed the pair sharply in the middle of April) and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous strong upward impulse wave from the end of earlier minor correction (iv). The upward reversal from this support zone continues the active impulse waves (v), (iii) and 3.

GBP/CHF is expected to rise further – in line with the strong uptrend that can be seen on the daily charts – toward the next buy targets at the resistance levels 1.5400 and 1.5500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6073

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450
13 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9600
-Next sell targets - 0.9500 and 0.9450

AUD/CAD continues to decline after recently breaking through the support level 0.9600, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier sharp downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.9750 and 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse 1 from January.

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January) toward the next sell targets 0.9500 and 0.9450.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6072

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD: outlook for August 17-23
14 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

During the past week US dollar showed moderate gains versus other major currencies.

On the one hand, the market sees higher and higher possibility of the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September. Solid retail sales data also supported the case for an early rate hike.

On the other hand, traders are still far from sure of such outcome. According to the latest Reuters polls of the leading economists, the odds of September rate hike rose to 60%. Although this is much more than we have seen before, uncertainty remains. In addition, the greenback has already strengthened much and many large players take profit on their bullish USD positions on good data releases. China’s yuan devaluation also limited strength of American currency: after initially higher demand for USD, traders feared that this would prevent the Fed from tightening monetary policy, as American central bank would not want to lose the currency war and let the greenback strengthen much more.

The next week will be full of important economic releases and events. Pay attention to inflation figures on Wednesday – low inflation makes it harder for the Federal Reserve to start raising interest rates. In addition, the Fed’s July meeting minutes will see light. The market will be looking at the division of opinions within the regulator and information on how the policymakers estimate the external risks to American economy. San Francisco Fed President Williams will speak on Thursday: he is one of the FOMC members leaning to a rate hike in September. Also on Thursday is the first day of the Jackson Hole symposium. This is an annual event, attended by central bankers, finance ministers, academics, and financial market participants from all over the world and hosted by the Federal Reserve. We can expect plenty of important comments on economic and monetary policy not only by the Fed, but also by other central banks. Global trends such as decline in commodity prices will also be discussed.

Traders will surely follow all these developments with great attention. For us to see confident growth in USD we need good American statistics accompanied by the hawkish comments of the Federal Reserve. And even this may be not enough: at the point when the market already has significant long USD positions, new bullish impulse should come from other nations and other central banks to provide monetary stimulus to their economies. Where the market will see that or at least the possibility of that, USD will gain. In this sense, commodity currencies should be the weakest versus the greenback.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6086

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: outlook for August 17-23
14 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

Although the quantitative easing (QE) conducted by the European Central Bank since March brings positive results, the euro area’s economic recovery remains uneven. The region’s economic leader, Germany, posted 0.4% economic increase – a bit lower reading than expected. The outsider Greek economy unexpectedly jumped by 0.8% in April-June, but in France economic growth turned out to be zero. GDP of the whole currency union rose by 0.3% in Q2 (forecast: +0.4%). The ECB meeting minutes showed that the regulator aims to continue quantitative easing as planned.

Next week we will get economic updates about the euro zone’s trade balance, currency account and, most importantly, about the region’s manufacturing and services sector activity in August.

In addition, we follow the developments in Greece. On Friday the nation’s parliament has approved the bailout package. The issue will be discussed within the Eurogroup and, if approved, German parliament will have to ratify it at the beginning of the next week. Although Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has once again managed to make the parliament follow his lead, he won because of the opposition, while many of his own party members abstained from the vote. So, unless these rebellious Syriza members change their position, Greece will likely has to conduct snap elections. In addition, there is still an unresolved question about the International Monetary Fund’s participation in the deal: the IMF wants Germany to grant Greece major debt relief, but Berlin is against such a step.

Let me remind you that the nation has to repay about 3.2 billion euro to the ECB by August 20. Greece has a time limit to get money. As a result, volatility will pick up next week. Still, the market seems quite sure that Greece is out of default danger for now: if not the bailout, Greece will get another bridge loan to cover its short-term needs.

The single currency was rather resilient versus the US dollar in the past week. EUR/USD fixed above 1.1100. Support is at 1.1040, 1.0950 and 1.0890. Resistance is at 1.1215, 1.1278 and 1.1365. The bulls have to overcome the obstacle at 1.1280 to get a chance to rise to 1.15 and higher.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6088

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: outlook for August 17-23
14 August 2015

By Elizabeth Belugina

Japan will release GDP figures early on Monday. According to the expectations, the nation’s economy contracted by almost 2% in Q2. In addition, don’t miss Japanese trade balance data on Wednesday: this release will show how the nation’s economy is doing in Q3. It looks like the exports growth has significantly slowed in July – a bad sign for Japan which creates the risk of a second quarter of contraction in a row.

As China is Japan’s major trading partner, yuan’s devaluation will affect Japan and its trade balance provoking further stress for Japan’s economy. On Thursday there will be the Bank of Japan’s meeting and press conference. The central bank has not made any new steps since it last expanded massive asset purchases in October 2014. According to the recent comments of the regulator, the central bank thinks that this is enough to reach 2% inflation target. However, traders will still expect more from the central bank if economic data continue deteriorating.

USD/JPY once again was not able to show sustainable growth above 125.00. Further resistance is at 125.30 and 125.85 ahead of 126.00. Support is at 123.85, 123.00 and 122.60. We still think that the pair is not ready for a big break to the upside unless of a dovish surprise from the Bank of Japan.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6089

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
17 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. Bearish impulse A seems to be complete. The initial phase of the bullish correction B is on the way.

H4. On the new week we're going to rally in a wave [y]. We recommend you staying out of the market these days as the market is forming very complicated wave constructions.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6105

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
17 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The price is moving up in a long-term bullish trend. Final bullish wave (V) is now being built.

H4. Final part of the wave V takes a form of diagonal triangle. We expect the price to rally in a bullish zigzag (5).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6104