Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast fot July 6-12

By Elizabeth Belugina

As expected, USD/JPY had a volatile week. Risk sentiment was negative because of the uncertain future of Greece and decline in Chinese stocks. The pair was also moved by the economic data from America: there were good figures on Wednesday, but disappointing labor market figures on Thursday. At the same time, the NFP was still above 200K. As a result, many players will continue expecting the Federal Reserve’s rate hike in September.

Next week Japan’s economic calendar will be rather empty. We can only pick out current account on Wednesday and core machinery orders on Thursday. It’s more important to watch the minutes of the Fed’s June meeting due on Wednesday. The start of the week will be determined by the outcome of the Greek bailout vote: we may see another opening gap. The closer Greece is to leaving the euro area, the stronger will be negative pressure on the US dollar versus the yen.

Technically USD/JPY is forming a wedge-like descending trend which will remain corrective as long as the pair is above the 122.00/121.75/121.55 zone. Here the pair will be supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud, so the bulls will defend these levels with much force. Further support is at 120.95 and 120.50. On the daily chart the pair formed the bullish “hammer” on Tuesday, but a bearish “shooting star” on Thursday. On the upside resistance is at 123.50/70 and the key one at 124.46/50 which guards the way to June highs at 125.85.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5672

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for July 6-12

Kira Iukhtenko

Mixed labor market data on Thursday capped the US Dollar growth. May Non-farm payrolls came out at 223K – this is solid result. Unemployment fell to 5.3% - this is the lowest level since 2008. However, wage growth and labor participation rate disappointed to the downside.

All in all the employment figures still leave a September rate hike on the table. However, the Fed still needs to see the June data to confirm a positive trend. The Greek drama remains a “dark horse” for the market. Further negative developments in Greece will likely postpone the Fed’s rate hike expectations. According to the CME data, the futures market reflects only a 12% rate hike chance for September and a 49% chance for December.

However, the picture could change dramatically after the FOMC meeting minutes release on Wednesday, July 8. We could get some bullish surprises out of there. You should also watch the US non-manufacturing PMI and trade balance on the new week.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5667

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Euro hit by the Greek "No" vote
6 July 2015

On Monday, the market attention is glued to the euro zone’s internal issues. Probability of the Greek exit from the Eurozone surged after 61% of the Greek voters rejected the austerity measures on the referendum on Sunday. European leaders will hold emergent meetings on Monday and on Tuesday to discuss the new options. Meanwhile, the Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis stepped down, citing the creditors’ unwillingness to involve him in further negotiations.

Level of uncertainty remains very high. The euro crosses gapped lower on the news, but have recovered some ground in the early trade. EUR/USD opened with a 115 pips bearish gap at 1.0990 before recovering to 1.1090. Traders should be monitoring developments in the euro zone with plenty of news to come.

Meanwhile in China, stock market paused its decline due to the aggressive governmental intervention. The People’s Bank of China committed to support the brokerage houses with liquidity. As a result, China’s 21 largest brokerages announced they are buying stocks on the market to prevent a new market drop.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3035

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 7

Kira Iukhtenko

Market attention is glued to Greece at the beginning of the new week. Greek people voted against the austerity measures on Sunday. As a result, market expectations for Grexit surged. EU authorities will hold an emergency meeting on Tuesday to discuss the options available on the table. The next deadline for Greece comes on July 20. The country owes 2.5 bln euros to ECB.

EUR/USD opened the week with a bearish gap below 1,1000, but closed it when the dust settled a little bit. The market still believes that the Greek crisis could be resolved with negotiations. Euro met resistance at the 100-hor MA below 1,1100, however. Support is seen at 1,1030 and 1,0950. Market dynamics on Tuesday will be defined by the Greek-related headlines.

GBP/USD also managed to close the morning gap, recovering above1,5600 on the weak US non-manufacturing PMI. Watch the UK manufacturing production figures tomorrow (forecast – positive). Watch the trend resistance at 1,5680, however. We remain bearish below 1,5900.

USD/JPY tested the 122,00 support in Asia, but regained ground rather quickly. Resistance – 123,40 and 123,70, support - 121,80. AUD/USD dipped to a 6-year high at0,7460 on Monday,but crawled back into the green zone. RBA meeting will be held on Tuesday – no rate cut expected.

As for the United States, don’t miss the May trade balance on Tuesday and the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5692

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD: buy target - 2.1000
7 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD reached buy target 2.0550
-Next buy target - 2.1000

GBP/AUD recently broke sharply above the resistance level 2.0550, which was set as the buy target in our previous technical analysis report for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the active minor impulse wave (v) – which belongs to the 3rd minor impulse 3 from the start of May.

GBP/AUD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the resistance level 2.1000 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from May). Strong support remains at 2.0550.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5696

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CAD: buy target – 1.2800
7 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CAD reached buy targets 1.2560 and 1.2650
-Next buy target – 1.2800

USD/CAD has been rising strongly in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the resistance levels 1.2560 and 1.2650 – both of which were set as the buy targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. Each of these resistance breakouts intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair - accelerating the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse (3) from last month.

USD/CAD is likely to rise further inside the active accelerated impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.2800 (which reversed previous waves 3, (5) and (B) in March).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5697

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for July 8

Kira Iukhtenko

USD Index jumped above the 97 mark on Tuesday as the Greek issue leaves the market worried. For now, no decision on Greece has been made. Another risk factor for the market is the Chinese stock market collapse. Investors are seeking the safe currencies, such as the US dollar and the yen.

EUR/USD fell to 1.0910 amid the increased uncertainty. The market is trying to fix below the important support at 1.1050. We could see a quick drop to 1.0820 if no solution is found on the Tuesday’s EU summit. Euro zone’s economic calendar is empty until the end of the week, so all eyes on Greece and on the US data.

GBP/USD followed the euro, slipping to 1.5420. Road to 1.5200 is now open, resistance lies at 1.5500. UK manufacturing figures added to the market pessimism on Tuesday. On Wednesday UK will release its’ renewed annual budget.

AUD/USD is testing fresh 6-year lows around 0.7400. Reserve Bank of Australia left monetary policy unchanged today. However, the Chinese stock collapse and the falling iron ore prices make us believe a rate cut is yet to come. We target 0.7000 in the coming weeks.

USD/JPY returned to the 122.00 as investors are in love with the safe assets today. Support is seen at – 121.80. Be careful – the Bank of Japan is not interested in an excessive yen’s strength. Resistance – 123.40.

Watch the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday at 18:00 GMT. The release will likely influence the market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5703

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Markets await Greece, FOMC
8 July 2015

Collapse of the Chinese stock market is hurting the global risk sentiment. Shanghai Composite index fell to 3500 points in the opening hours. Chinese government seems to have lost grip over the market.
Greece remains another market pain. Negotiations are continuing in Brussels on Wednesday to try to find a solution to Greece's debt crisis after the “No” vote on the Sunday's referendum. Markets are awaiting the Greek revised economic program.
FOMC June 16-17 minutes will be released tonight. You should also listen to the Fed’s member Williams tonight. Perhaps he will comment the possible impact of the global uncertainty on the Fed’s policy.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3053

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 8

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1057, TAKE PROFIT 1.0819 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.1124

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 122.46, TAKE PROFIT 121.05, STOP LOSS 123.20

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9412, TAKE PROFIT 0.9573 (revied), STOP LOSS 0.9395 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 135.95, TAKE PROFIT 133.10, STOP LOSS 136.15 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4163, STOP LOSS 1.3800

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5520, TAKE PROFIT 1.5365, STOP LOSS 1.5615

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7180, TAKE PROFIT 0.6989, STOP LOSS 0.7219

EUR/CHF: Look to BUY

GBP/JPY: Look to SELL

AUD/USD: Look to SELL

USD/CAD: Look to BUY

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5710

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Euro updating lows
8 July 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

During yesterday's trading, the main currency pair on Forex has updated lows. A new extremum for the past five weeks has been recorded at the 1.0910. level. Thus, the downtrend is gaining momentum.

The Ichimoku indicator on the four-hour timeframe is fully bearish. Thus, the Ichimoku cloud has significantly expanded downwards, clearly indicating continuation of the downtrend in the long run. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have also formed a new dead cross, supporting the short-termers.

At the same time, the pair rolled back to Kijun-sen yesterday, into the 1.1000 area, due to its oversoldness. But powerful resistance has stopped the bulls. Therefore, the current levels may be a starting point for new sales.

Technical levels: support – 1.0900; сопротивление – 1.1000.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1000; SL — 1.1020; TP1 — 1.0900; TP2 — 1.0850.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5708

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound plummeting
8 July 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The recent bearish pressure on the British currency has had its consequences. During yesterday's trading, the GBP/USD currency pair has tumbled into the 54th figure area, breaking through the 1.5550 support of the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border.

During this period, the cloud has changed its character to downward, clearly defining the bearish trend in the market. The dead cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines a week earlier is active as well.

Under such circumstances, we are obvious to expect further decline of the currency pair rate, up until the 53rd figure.

Technical levels: support – 1.5320, 1.5270; resistance – 1.5450, 1.5500.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.5420; SL — 1.5450; TP1 — 1.5320; TP2 — 1.5270.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5709

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for July 9

Kira Iukhtenko

Market sentiment on Greece improved on Wednesday as the Greek government has finally applied for a third aid program. No details have been announced yet, but this is an important step towards the long-awaited solution. Market is already pricing in the positive outcome. As a result, demand for the safe US dollar declined.

Meanwhile, China’s stock crisis is gaining traction. Shanghai Composite stock index dipped to a new low of 3500 on Wednesday. Japanese yen strengthened significantly as the speculative capital is flooding from China to safe Japan.

Late on Wednesday, don’t miss the FOMC minutes release and the Fed’s member Williams speech. US Dollar could recover on Thursday in case if there are some hints on a policy tightening coming in September. Tomorrow watch the unemployment claims in the United States.

EUR/USD

-Trying to fix above 1.1050 (trend line)
-If it does – buy with a target of 1.1100 on Greek optimism
-Bearish targets are 1.0910, 1.0820
-There are no releases in euro zone, monitor the Greek headlines

GBP/USD

-Pound is being sold aggressively on the technical factors
-Brokebelow38,2% Fibonacci
-Local support has been formed at 1.5350
-Hold short from 1.5400, target 1.5200, stop 1.5520
-BOE meeting on Thursday (no changes expected)

USD/JPY

-Fell by more than 150 on China’s woes, broke below the 121.70 support
-Found some buying interest at the 100-day MA (121.00)
-Break lower would pave the ground to 120.00 (trend support)
-Resistance– 122.40, 123.30
-Watch the Fed’s news and China

AUD/USD

-Tested a fresh 6-year low of 0,7370
-Resistance – 0,7530, we target 0,7000 in the coming weeks
-Iron ore price collapsed by 10% today
-Thursday: Australia labor market data, China’s CPI

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5715

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for July 9

Open positions:

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.20, TAKE PROFIT 119.83, STOP LOSS 121.73

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9412, TAKE PROFIT 0.9573, STOP LOSS 0.9395 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT at 135.95, TAKE PROFIT 131.73, STOP LOSS 135.75 (revised)

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3930, TAKE PROFIT 1.4341 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3895 (revised)

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5440, TAKE PROFIT 1.5258, STOP LOSS 1.5525

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.6770, TAKE PROFIT 0.6590, STOP LOSS 0.6820

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2720, TAKE PROFIT 1.2957, STOP LOSS 1.2640

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7165, TAKE PROFIT 0.7266, STOP LOSS 0.7095

EUR/CHF: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5723

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

FOMC minutes: dovish tone
9 July 2015

June FOMC meeting minutes, released on Wednesday, turned out to be a dovish factor for the US currency. Here are the major points you have to know about the document:

-Many FOMC members need more recovery proofs to tighten monetary policy;
-Some of them are worried about a premature rate hike;
-Some of them think the economy is ready for the first hike;
-Greek problems are dangerous for the US economy;
-Some FOMC members doubt Greece will find a compromise with EU;
-US labor market recovered over Q2;
-After the first hike the economy should be closely monitored.

Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President John Williams still sees a first rate hike in 2015.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3062

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for July 10

Kira Iukhtenko

Market sentiment improved on Thursday, as the Greek question seems to close to an end. Greek government is on its way to find a compromise with the European creditors. China’s stock market retraced higher after days of a dramatic decline, adding to the market optimism. Demand for the US dollar remains limited after the FOMC meeting minutes released on Wednesday. Commodities and risky currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) have recovered some ground on Thursday amid the improved market picture.

EUR/USD is hovering around 1.1050, trying to fix higher. Resistance lies at 1.1100/30. The pair could dip to 1.0910 and 1.0820 in case if the Greek optimism lowers. GBP/USD has also recovered some ground after the yesterday’s drop, but holds below 38.2% Fibonacci (1.5400). Key resistance lies at 1.5500, support – at 1.5300. Fundamentally, the market will now be waiting for the BOE minutes release on July 22.

On Friday, the market dynamics will be defined by the Asian morning. The upbeat sentiment could persist.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5727

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: buy target - 122.50
10 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/JPY reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 122.50

USD/JPY yesterday reversed up sharply from the support zone located between the price level 120.00 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price move from last December (as you can see below). The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line – standing well outside of the lower daily Bollinger Band – which strengthened this bullish signal.

USD/JPY is likely to rise further - in line with the strong uptrend visible on the daily charts – toward the next buy target at the resistance level 122.50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5730

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

CHF/JPY: buy targets - 130.00 and 131.60
10 July 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-CHF/JPY reversed from support level 128.20
-Next buy target - 130.00 and 131.60

CHF/JPY yesterday reversed up from the support zone lying between the following support levels: the support trendline of the daily up channel from March, the lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 and the support level 128.20 (which reversed the pair multiple times in May, as you can see below).

CHF/JPY is likely to continue to rise further from the current levels toward the next buy targets 130.00 and 131.60 (former support level which reversed (a) wave in June).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5731

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for July 13-19
10 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

USD/JPY was driven mostly by the global risk sentiment on the past week. At the beginning of the week the pair dipped to 120.50 on the wave of risk aversion, but later has recovered back above 122 yen. Next resistance is seen at 123.00 yen - this is where the trend resistance lies.

Next week the market will likely be led by the same factors - concerns about Greece and China. On Wednesday the Bank of Japan will hold its policy meeting - we expect no changes in monetary policy to be announced. However, the market could het some comments about the consequences of the Chinese events for the Japan's economy. This could cause renewed expectations for a BOJ stimulus in the coming months - bullish factor for the USD/JPY.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5737

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for July 13-19
10 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

EUR/USD slipped 1.0900 on the past week. However, on Thursday the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras proposed a bag of reforms to the European leaders, switching the market sentiment towards buying the European currency. As a result, at the end of the week EUR/USD recovered back above 1.1100.

European leaders will be discussing the Greek proposal over the weekend. If they find it not sufficient, on Monday euro could come under resumed bearish pressure, targeting 1.0910, 1.0820 and then lower. If a compromise is found by Monday, the pair may recover towards the 1.1400 mark. We don’t see any fundamental reasons for a move higher.

Apart from the Greek news, pay attention to the ZEW economic sentiment index on Monday. Thursday is another eventful day of the coming week: ECB meeting, Mario Draghi’s press-conference and final June CPI are on the schedule.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5733

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for July 13-19
10 July 2015

Kira Iukhtenko

The US Dollar Index slipped below 96 points on the past week. The greenback was pressured by the two major factors: risk appetite recovery and dovish Fed’s minutes released on Wednesday. What’s more, on Thursday the market has seen above-the-forecast jobless claims in the United States. Investors thought the US economy is still too weak for a rate hike in September.

Next week in the United States will be full of important economic releases. We’ll be watching the US retail sales on Monday. On Wednesday and on Thursday the Fed chief Jannet Yellen will hold its semi-annual testimony in Congress. We don’t expect any direct announcements to be made, so the US Dollar will likely stay under moderate pressure on the coming week. However, an unexpected spike in the global uncertainty (any negative developments in Greece or China) could make the US currency attractive for investments as a safe heaven.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5734