Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for August 3-9

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD reversed down from the 1.1125/1100 area and fell to 1.0900. Will the single currency keep sliding?

During the past week, the negotiations on the third 85-billion-euro Greek bailout program have finally started. The nation’s Prime Minister Tsipras has managed to make the rebellious lawmakers of his party agree to hold extraordinary congress in September after Greece is expected to have sealed a new bailout deal with its international creditors. Still, tensions are not over. The IMF has made it clear that it will not contribute to another bailout for Greece without debt relief and real economic reforms. German finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble even proposed Greece a “temporary” exit from the euro area.

As a result, we are sure that further Greek talks will be very difficult. The euro lacks bullish drivers, while the US dollar, on the contrary, has strong upside potential.

There are no important events in the euro zone, which could drive the euro in the week ahead, so the focus will be on American releases. Note, though, that despite optimism about the US GDP, EUR/USD has managed to hold above 1.0900. The key support is lower, in the 1.0820/00 zone (bottom of the 3-month range). The general downtrend is still in place, and we will look to sell on increases to resistance in the 1.1000/1020 area.

EUR/USD, H4

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
1 August 2015

Daily. The market keeps moving down within a strong downward Zigzag. The wave A of the Zigzag is likely over. If the assumption is correct, this week we will see the formation of the upward corrective wave B.

H4. We are seeing the internal structure of the final area on Н4. The downtrend is completely equipped with the waves of a smaller wave level. As a result, this week we expect the price to go up within the upward correction.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5953

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
1 August 2015

Weekly. The market keeps moving up within the powerful multiyear uptrend, which is close to an end.

H4. Last week the pair ended correction [4]. After that, the prices resumed growth within another upward impulse [5]. The approximate trajectory of the upcoming move is at the picture.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5952

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
1 August 2015

Daily. The market keeps moving within the long downtrend. At the final part, there was an upward correction , after which the pair’s decline resumed.

H4. Last week the pair finished upside corrective wave (2). In the next few trading days we expect another decline within the new bearish impulse. In the situation like this we recommend selling.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5951

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
1 August 2015

Daily. The market is moving within powerful and long downtrend, which was interrupted by the upwards corrective wave (4) for several months. When it ended, the pair continued moving down in a complex shape.

H4. The development of corrective wave (2) was likely over last week, so this week we expect the pair’s decline in a new downward impulse. However, one should trade carefully as the market is forming very complex and sharp waves. It is better to switch to other currencies during this period.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5950

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 4

By Elizaveta Belugina

US dollar recovered some of its Friday losses. American personal spending growth slowed down to 0.2% in June, while the previous reading was revised down from 0.9% to 0.7%. US ISM manufacturing PMI also came out below expectations. Weak statistics will curb the greenback versus its main counterparts.

EUR/USD spiked up towards 1.1115 on Friday, but then closed in the 1.0980 area. Support is at 1.0900, 1.0870 and 1.0820. Resistance is at 1.1020 (100-day MA) and 1.1095 (55-day MA).

GBP/USD remained below 1.5700, but is holding above support line since April in the 1.5550 zone. The pound should rise above 1.5700 to be able to get to 1.5815 (May high). Only below 1.5550 sterling will fall to 1.5400. UK manufacturing PMI came slightly above forecasts. On Tuesday there will be the next important piece of British data – construction PMI.

USD/JPY is supported by the daily Ichimoku Cloud. The greenback has to overcome resistance in the 124.50/60 area in order to open the way to 125.00 and 125.85 (June high). Support is at 123.35/00 (Cloud’s top). The decline below this level will make the pair vulnerable for a slide to 122.00 (Cloud’s bottom).

AUD/USD is swinging in the 1.7235/1.7035 area. Australian dollar was hurt on Monday by worse than expected China manufacturing PMI. On Tuesday Australia will release retail sales (positive forecast) and trade balance (negative forecast) at 01:30 GMT. The Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting results will be announced at 04:30 GMT (forecast is positive). According to the consensus forecast, the RBA will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at 2%. Still, the central bank is likely to create some negative pressure on Aussie with its comments as it will probably refer to the sliding commodity prices, which create the need for weaker AUD. Resistance is at 0.7323 and 0.7363. Support is at 0.7230 and 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5964

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for Aug 4

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.0949, TAKE PROFIT 1.0843, STOP LOSS 1.1015

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.3062, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337, STOP LOSS 1.2972

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0585, TAKE PROFIT 1.0690, STOP LOSS 1.0529

EUR/GBP: Look to SELL

EUR/CAD: Look to BUY

Open positions:

USD/JPY: LONG at 124.10, TAKE PROFIT 125.38, STOP LOSS 123.49

GBP/USD: LONG at 1.5510, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5515

USD/CHF: LONG at 0.9665, TAKE PROFIT 0.9863, STOP LOSS 0.9599

EUR/JPY: LONG at 135.70, TAKE PROFIT 137.80, STOP LOSS 135.20

GBP/JPY: LONG at 193.85, TAKE PROFIT 196.55, STOP LOSS 192.48

NZD/USD: SHORT at 0.6605, TAKE PROFIT 0.6459, STOP LOSS 0.6675

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies triling stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5971

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: weekly wave analysis
4 August 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. The market is currently building the final part of a bearish impulse in a wave [D] of a triangle. When the wave [D] is fully complete, we'll see the market reversed in a new bullish wave [E].

H4. The bearish trend is not over as there was now normal wave [v] built. At the beginning of the new week a sideways flat [iv] will be finished. After that the market will decline to 1062,51.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5975

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 5

Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar remains limited after the last week’s downbeat figures. DXY index consolidated around 97.50 on Tuesday. However, we expect the bulls to return at the end of the week. On Wednesday the market will focus on the NFP from ADP ahead of the official figures on Friday. You should also watch the US trade balance and non-manufacturing PMI tomorrow.

Commodity markets slowed their depreciation amid the weaker dollar and a bounce on the Chinese market. As a result, risky currencies have also regained some ground. We review this rebound as temporary. NZD/USD tested the 0.6600 resistance today, but failed to overcome it. Don’t miss the NZ employment figures tonight. USD/CAD holds above the key support at 1.3100.

EUR/USD came under resumed pressure after the US factory orders release. Tomorrow we’ll be watching service PMIs in euro zone. Bearish risks remain very high. GBP/USD holds in a sideways range above 1.5500. The market clearly remains uncertain about the BOE and the Fed’s policy intentions. On Wednesday we’ll watch services PMI. Thursday is going to be a key day for the cable – BOE meeting, quarterly inflation report and policy minutes are on the schedule. Buy GBP against the EUR and JPY.

USD/JPY consolidates slightly below the 124.00 mark. Resistance lies at 124.40/50, but this level could be broken on strong US data on Wednesday. Trend support – 123.70.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5980

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for August 5

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0949, TAKE PROFIT 1.0809, STOP LOSS 1.0965 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.10, TAKE PROFIT 125.38, STOP LOSS 123.49

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5510, TAKE PROFIT 1.5701, STOP LOSS 1.5515

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9665, TAKE PROFIT 0.9863, STOP LOSS 0.9680 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0635, TAKE PROFIT 1.0732, STOP LOSS 1.0588

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 193.85, TAKE PROFIT 196.55, STOP LOSS 192.48

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6605, TAKE PROFIT 0.6459, STOP LOSS 0.6675

Trade ideas:

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.3062, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337, STOP LOSS 1.2972

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5985

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: trading USD/CAD
5 August 2015

Open positions

Societe Generale: Hold LONG from 1.3120, TAKE PROFIT 1.3400, STOP LOSS 1.3050 (entered on August 3).

Credit Suisse: Hold LONG from 1.2953, TAKE PROFIT 1.3324, STOP LOSS 1.2861 (entered on July 31).

JP Morgan: Hold LONG from 1.2709, TAKE PROFIT 1.3500, STOP LOSS 1.2855 (entered on July 8).

Limit Orders

Danske Bank: BUY at 1.3062, TAKE PROFIT 1.3337, STOP LOSS 1.2927(entered on August 4).

Morgan Stanley: BUY at 1.3100, TAKE PROFIT 1.3600, STOP LOSS 1.3000 (entered on August 5).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5986

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF: buy targets - 0.9850 and 1.0080
5 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF rises inside C-wave
-Next buy targets - 0.9850 and 1.0080

USD/CHF continues to rise inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of May. This C-wave earlier broke the strong resistance level 0.9500 (which reversed the previous A-wave of this ABC correction) – intersecting with the 200-day simple moving average – which intensified the bullish pressure on this currency pair.

USD/CHF is likely to rise further inside the active C-wave toward the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 0.9850 (top of the minor correction 2) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 1.0080 (top of wave ② from March.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5987

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CAD: sell target - 1.4200
5 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CAD reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 1.4200

EUR/CAD continues to decline after the recent downward reversal from the resistance zone near the strong resistance level 1.4480 (which also previously reversed the pair with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing at the end of July, as you can see below). The previous downward reversal from the resistance level 1.4480 completed the earlier primary ABC correction ② from April.

EUR/CAD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 1 toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4200 (which reversed the price with the daily Morning Star last week).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5988

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 6

Kira Iukhtenko

The US Dollar index tested the July peak at 98.15 on Wednesday after the unexpectedly strong US non-manufacturing PMI index (10-year high of 60.3). ADP NFP disappointed, coming at 185K, but the market didn’t pay too much attention to this figures. Watch the unemployment claims on Thursday and the official NFP on Friday (your guesses are accepted here).

EUR/USD broke below 1.0900 and opened the way to 1.0820. There are no important releases to watch in euro zone this week, so watch the US data releases.

As for GBP/USD, bulls are gaining strength: the pair jumped to 1.5650 on weak ADP NFP. Thursday is going to be the key day for the cable – BOE meeting, quarterly inflation report and policy minutes are on the schedule. We expect some hawkish surprises from the UK regulator. Watch the 1.5700 resistance.

As we expected, commodity block currencies came under pressure again. AUD/USD failed to close above 0.7400 yesterday. It means that the bullish move was speculative. Watch the employment data in Australia on Thursday. Aussie will likely hit the recent levels around 0.7200 soon.

USD/JPY soared to 125.00 on the USD optimism. Next target lies at 125.80.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5993

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key currency options
6 August 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 2.4bln), 1.0850 (1.1bln), 1.0950 (505m), 1.1000 (402m), 1.1050/55 (820m)

GBP/USD: 1.5615 (GBP 212m)

USD/JPY: 123.00 (USD 787m), 124.00 (825m), 124.70/75 (700m), 125.00 (907m)

USD/CAD: 1.3050 (USD 490m), 1.3150 (400m)

AUD/USD: 0.7300 (AUD 251m), 0.7350/60 (450m)

NZD/USD: 0.6550 (NZD 329m)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/3279

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: buy targets - 195.50 and 198.00
6 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY broke resistance level 194.00
-Next buy targets - 195.50 and 198.00

GBP/JPY continues to rise after the pair earlier broke above the resistance level 194.00 (which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in the middle of July, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of July.

GBP/JPY is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 195.50 (which stopped previous impulse (1)) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 198.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5997

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: sell target - 0.9600
6 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD reached buy target 0.9750
-Next sell target - 0.9600

AUD/CAD recently reversed down after the price reached the resistance level 0.9750, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The resistance zone near the resistance level 0.9750 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse from the middle of January (as you can see below). The downward reversal from 0.9750 completed the earlier minor correction 2.

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9600. Strong resistance remains at 0.9750.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5999

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Large banks: trading USD/JPY
6 August 2015

Open positions

Citi: Hold LONG from 124.80, TAKE PROFIT 128.50, STOP LOSS 122.95 (entered on August 5).

JP Morgan: Hold LONG from 124.37, TAKE PROFIT 129.00, STOP LOSS 121.35 (entered on August 5).

Danske Bank: Hold LONG from 123.86, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.78 (entered on August 3).

Limit orders

Morgan Stanley: BUY at 123.80, TAKE PROFIT 126.00, STOP LOSS 123.40 (entered on August 5).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6000

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for August 7

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar remains strong vs. other major currencies. Traders are rather positive about the upcoming release of the American Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figures on Friday, at 12:30 GMT. Consensus forecast is that American economy has gained 220-225K jobs in July, while unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.3%. If the reading comes between 200K and 220K, US dollar will be OK, though there may be a negative short-term reaction. A reading below 200K will provoke USD selloff, while NFP around 250K will make the greenback broadly strengthen.

EUR/USD remained above 1.0900. The pair is trading between 1.0950 and 1.0850. Good NFP will make the euro decline towards 1.0800/1.0750, but if US data disappoint we will see a spike towards 1.1050/1.1100. There will be some figures in the euro area, but America will remain in the center of market’s attention.

The super Thursday for British pound did not leave up to expectations. GBP/USD slid below 1.5550, but found support in the 1.5460 area (July 24 low). Only one MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) member voted for the rate hike vs. at least two expected. In addition, the Bank of England’s Governor Carney has mentioned low commodity prices and said that higher sterling affects inflation. However, fundamentally the central bank’s position did not change much. Rate hikes around the beginning of the next year is still on the table. Cable fell because the expectations of the market fueled by the previous Bank of England’s comments were too elevated. There are some positive technical signs like the 100-day MA turning up, so the battle is not lost for the pound in the longer-term. On Friday, however, it will all depend on the US NFP. A strong reading will send GBP/USD to 1.5300, while a weak one will allow it to test levels above 1.5700 with potential target at 1.5800. There is also support in the 1.5400 area (200-day MA).

USD/JPY remains just below the psychological level of 125.00. The Bank of Japan will meet early on Friday. The central bank will likely maintain its monetary stimulus program and upbeat assessment of national economy. Note that the central bank would not like to see the pair above 125.00. Still, in case of strong NFP USD/JPY will surge to 125.75/126.00. The disappointment, however, may provoke a decline down to 123.50 (top of the daily Cloud).

AUD/USD declined after data showed increase in unemployment level. Support is at 0.7315, but strong NFP will provoke a decline to 0.7260/0.7200. Strong resistance is located in the 0.7400 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6007

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CHF: buy target - 1.0800
7 August 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CHF broke resistance level 1.0690
-Next buy target - 1.0800

EUR/CHF continues to rise after the pair earlier broke through the resistance level 1.0690 (which reversed the price in March and July, as you can see below). The breakout of this resistance level follows the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the pivotal support level 1.0550 and 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from the end of June.

EUR/CHF is expected to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave (iii) toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 1.0800 (which stopped and reversed the strong A-wave at the end of April).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6011