Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: bulls lost all power
26 May 2015

By Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

In the absence of major players, trades on the currency markets were going quite sluggish yesterday. The lack of risk appetite for the Aussie was evident from the way the consolidation was taking place just above the 78th figure. Let us note that here, the most powerful support has been formed which the bulls might use as a platform to straighten out the situation (for the whole previous week, the AUD/USD pair was falling to the three-week lows).

Somewhat movement has been noticed since this morning. An attempt is possible to initiate recovery to the Tenkan and Kijun lines that have formed a resistance in the 0.7870 area. At the same time, the major trend is already descending - the Ichimoku cloud is expanding downwards.

Technical levels: support – 0.7800/10; resistance – 0.7870, 0.7900.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7830; SL — 0.7810; TP1 — 0.7870; TP2 — 0.7900.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5185

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Yen out of fashion again
26 May 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair overboughtness is obvious to have no influence so far: yesterday's short-term correction ended at the 121.40 level and was followed by the pair's recovery resumption.

The bulls are running the show again at the today's Asian session, having returned the currency pair rate to the highs, into the area of a many-month resistance - 121.70/80.

It should be noted that all lines of the four-hour Ichimoku indicator are now pulling upwards. This means that growth is most likely to continue in the near future.

Technical levels: support – 121.20/40; resistance – 121.70, 122.30.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 121.70; SL — 121.50; TP1 — 122.30; TP2 — 122.70.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5186

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 27

US dollar remains strong versus other currencies. American durable goods data came out in line with expectations with the previous readings revised to the upside.

EUR/USD slid to 1.0900 and may test 1.0800. Greece remains the main area of concerns. In June the nation has to repay 5.7 billion euro in short-term bills and 1.56 billion euro to the International Monetary Fund. Disagreements between the nation and its creditors remain in areas such as budget targets, sales-tax rates, and pension and labor market rules. On Tuesday Greek officials are negotiating with representatives of the European Commission and the IMF. The euro may also weaken versus the franc as demand for Swiss currency is mounting with increasing tensions in the euro area. Watch 1.0300 and 1.0225 on the downside.

GBP/USD fell to 1.5450. The pair needs to rise back above 1.5500 to relieve the bearish pressure. The pair is driven by the sentiment about the US dollar. Decline to 1.5270/1.5175 looks likely at this point.

USD/JPY reached 8-year high in the 123.00 area. Levels to watch on the upside include 123.66 (July 2007 high) and 124.13 (June 2007 high). Support is at 122.05/00, 121.70 and 121.00/120.85. The Bank of Japan will release its meeting minutes on Wednesday morning.

AUD/USD is trying to hold on to 0.7800. Below target levels lie initially at 0.7700 and then at 0.7650. Resistance is at 0.7950 and 0.7900.

USD/CAD rose to 1.2400. A close above this point will be bullish, but dovish comments from Canadian central bank are still necessary to allow growth to 1.2550 and higher. The Bank of Canada’s meeting will take place on Wednesday. No changes in the monetary policy are expected.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5200

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
27 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.0800 (EUR 769m), 1.0900 (543m), 1.0940/55 (1.5bln), 1.1000 (1bln);

USD/JPY: 121.80 (USD 300m), 123.00 (210m), 124.00 (350m);

GBP/USD: 1.5320 (GBP 251m);

AUD/USD: 0.7750 (AUD 302m), 0.7800 (644m), 0.7815/20 (500m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2716

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 27

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1115, TAKE PROFIT 1.0801 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.1069 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 123.85 (revised), STOP LOSS 121.99 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9300, TAKE PROFIT 0.9599 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9399

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2570 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2253 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 133.90, TAKE PROFIT 136.27, STOP LOSS 132.90

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7171

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0234, STOP LOSS 1.0401

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3392

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7295, TAKE PROFIT 0.7177, STOP LOSS 0.7351

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5445, TAKE PROFIT 1.5291, STOP LOSS 1.5515

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7785, TAKE PROFIT 0.7649, STOP LOSS 0.7855

GBP/JPY: BUY at 188.70, TAKE PROFIT 191.02, STOP LOSS 187.76

________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5206

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 28

By Kira Iukhtenko

The US dollar index extended the upside on Wednesday, supported by the USD/JPY strength. Large players are returning into the US currency. There was no important USD releases on the schedule today. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US unemployment claims, while on Friday the market will focus on the second GDP estimate. The last release contains a bearish risk for the USD.

USD/JPY and USD/CAD are the biggest market movers with the greenback pushing higher for a second day in a row. USD/JPY approached the 124.00 mark after having broken through the 122.00-yen technical resistance. Watch the 124.10 resistance – this is the 2007 top.

As it was widely expected, the Bank of Canada left monetary policy unchanged on Thursday, stating the current policy remains appropriate. Canada’s and US GDP releases on Friday could potentially cap the upside. Resistance for USD/CAD lies at 1.2665, while support – at 1.2350.

EUR/USD remained almost unchanged on Wednesday, holding below the 1.0900 mark. There was some speculation that Greek negotiations have become more fruitful recently, but no clear comments was given on the issue. Euro zone’s calendar for tomorrow is rather light. Watch the 1.0670 support for EUR/USD and the 1.1000/50 resistance area.

GBP/USD has spent the day in the red zone, slipping to 1.5300. The pair has recently broken below the bullish trend line. Next support is seen at 1.5100. Economists expect the UK GDP to be revised to the upside tomorrow. The cable could retrace back to 1.5480 on the news.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5219

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
28 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1150 (EUR 1.8bn);

GBP/USD: 1.5100 (GBP 1.1bn);

USD/JPY: 123.00 (USD 960m) 124.20 (300m) 124.50 (400m) 124.80 (400m);

USD/CAD: 1.2600 (USD 860m);

NZD/USD: 0.7200 (NZD 234m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2728

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 28

Open positions:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1115, TAKE PROFIT 1.0785 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.0942 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 124.75 (revised), STOP LOSS 123.40 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9300, TAKE PROFIT 0.9599 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9458 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7740, TAKE PROFIT 0.7634, STOP LOSS 0.7781

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667 (revised) , STOP LOSS 1.2347 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 133.90, TAKE PROFIT 136.27, STOP LOSS 132.90

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7171

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0234, STOP LOSS 1.0401

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3425 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 190.00, TAKE PROFIT 193.73, STOP LOSS 188.59

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7295, TAKE PROFIT 0.7177, STOP LOSS 0.7351

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5395, TAKE PROFIT 1.5191 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.5480

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5221

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 29

The US Dollar is trading in the green zone on Thursday despite the higher than expected unemployment claims. The market awaits the US Q1 GDP revision on Friday - according to Reuters forecast, growth will be revised to the downside from +0,2% to -0,8%. In our view, the pessimism is already priced in by the market, but the USD rally could still slow down for some time.

EUR/USD consolidates around the 1,0900 mark (55-day MA). Intraday resistance is seen at 1,0950. Next support is seen at 1,0810 and 1,0710. Watch the German retail sales, Spanish CPI and private loans in euro zone tomorrow.

GBP/USD extends the decline, falling below 1,5300. The market was disappointed by the news that the Q1 UK GDP was left unrevised at 0,3%. Next bearish targets are 1,5180 (50% Fibo) and the 1,5100 mark.

USD/JPY tried to retrace from the multi-year highs, but met buyers around 123,50. As a result, the pair returned back above 124.00/10. Watch the Japanese CPI data tomorrow. National core CPI is expected to have slowed down from 2,2% to 0,2% in April. The news could trigger a new wave of JPY selling. Targets are 125.00 and 126.80/127.10.

AUD/USD fell to 0,7620 on Thursday as the market was disappointed by the Australia Q1 CapEx contraction by 4,4%. The next bearish target is 0,7550.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5242

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/CAD: sell target –0.8800
29 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-NZD/CAD broke support level 0.8900
-Next sell target –0.8800

NZD/CAD recently reversed down sharply – after the pair reached the resistance level 0.9030, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The strong downward reversal from this resistance level led to the sharp sell-off, helping the pair today break through the support level 0.8900 (which reversed the previous intermediate correction (2), as you can see below).

The breakout of the support level 0.8900 should intensify the bearish pressure on NZD/CAD in the nearest time. NZD/CAD is likely to fall to the next sell target at the next strong support level 0.8800 (low of the earlier wave ②).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5245

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/NZD: buy targets – 2.1600 and 2.1800
29 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/NZD reached buy target level 2.1400
-Next buy targets – 2.1600 and 2.1800

GBP/NZD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance level 2.1400, which was set as the buy target in our previous report for this currency pair. The price earlier corrected down to the support zone lying at the intersection of the support level 2.1200 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the end of the earlier minor correction 2 (as you can see from the daily GBP/NZD chart below). GBP/NZD reversed up from this support zone – breaking today the resistance level 2.1400.

GBP/NZD is likely to rise further toward the next buy targets at 2.1600 and 2.1800. Buy stop-loss can be placed below the recently broken, former resistance level 2.1400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5247

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for June 1-7

Kira Iukhtenko

The US Dollar strengthened versus all the major currencies in the end of May. The market clearly expects the economy to recover in the second quarter. As a result, the first rate hike by the Federal Reserve is now expected in September-October. The Fed’s Chief Janet Yellen confirmed last week the bank’s intention to enter the hiking cycle in 2015. The pace will depend on the economic data.

At the beginning of the new week we’ll be watching the US PMI indices. On Friday, the market will focus on the US May Non-farm payrolls. Don’t forget to leave your NFP forecasts at FXBAZOOKA.com. The greenback will extend the upside, if the US economy added more than 200K new jobs. Dollar index targets the 98 mark and higher.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5254

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for June 1-7

Kira Iukhtenko

The cable had another bearish week, slipping below the 1.5300 mark. As can be seen from the monthly chart, the pair failed to break above the monthly Ichimoku cloud and is currently forming a long-legged bearish candle.

Buyers lost control over the market. On the daily chart, we see that the bullish trend support was crudely broken to the downside. Strong selling pressure persists and will likely extend into the new week. Our next bearish target is 1.5100. Break below could open the way to the April lows, but the 1.4500 area is expected to cap in the medium term. Resistance lies at 1.5550.

As for the economic calendar, watch the May PMI’s at the beginning of the new week. Manufacturing and construction indices are expected to recover a from the April dip, but they remain low relatively to the early 2014. On Thursday, the Bank of England holds its policy meeting.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5255

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 1

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0930, TAKE PROFIT 1.0732, STOP LOSS 1.1015

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 124.75 (revised), STOP LOSS 123.40 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5318, TAKE PROFIT 1.5150 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.5348 (revised)

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667 OBJ (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2347 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 133.90, TAKE PROFIT 137.64 (revised), STOP LOSS 134.98 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0234, STOP LOSS 1.0401

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3483 (revised)

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 190.00, TAKE PROFIT 193.73, STOP LOSS 188.59

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: SELL at 0.7710, TAKE PROFIT 0.7553, STOP LOSS 0.7775

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5275

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for June 2

Kira Iukhtenko

The US dollar index is trading in a narrow range on Monday. Data released today show US personal spending remained weak in April, while the inflationary pressures remain muted. PCE price index recorded its smallest gain since late 2009 on an annual basis (+1,2%). Disappointing data suggests the Fed won’t be in a hurry to raise interest rates. Watch the US factory orders and the FOMC Member Brainard speech tomorrow.

EUR/USD remains supported by the 1.0900 mark. Inflation in Germany pushed higher in May with consumer prices rising by 0.7% year-on-year. Manufacturing PMI indices also came out strong. However, euro remains under bearish pressure as the Greek question remains unsolved. We’ll be watching the flash May CPI tomorrow – forecasts are upbeat here.

GBP/USD extends the decline on Monday, testing the 1.5200 mark to the downside. UK Manufacturing PMI disappointed the market (52.00 versus 52.50 expected). Watch the Construction PMI tomorrow (forecast 55.1 versus prior 54.2).

AUD/USD consolidates around 0.7650. RBA will hold its monetary policy meeting tomorrow – no material changes in policy are expected. The pair is expected to slip towards the 0.7550 support even on a neutral informational background. Resistance lies at 0.7680.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5286

 

[harisuyanto]

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD: sell target – 1.4100
2 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target – 1.4100

EUR/AUD today reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.4380 (which also previously reversed the price in April and in March as you can see below), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse wave from the middle of December. Given the strength of this resistance zone - EUR/AUD is likely to fall further in the nearest time.

The pair is likely to fall to the next sell target at the support level 1.4100. Sell stop-loss can be placed at the distance of half the daily ATR (average true range) above the resistance level 1.4380.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5294

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 2

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.0930, TAKE PROFIT 1.0732, STOP LOSS 1.1015

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 125.69 (revised), STOP LOSS 123.40 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5318, TAKE PROFIT 1.5150, STOP LOSS 1.5315 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9450, TAKE PROFIT 0.9599, STOP LOSS 0.9385

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.2410 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 133.90, TAKE PROFIT 137.64 (revised), STOP LOSS 134.98 (revised)

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0234, STOP LOSS 1.0401

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3483 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/GBP: SELL higher

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5298

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for June 3

EUR/USD rose towards 1.1200 on hopes about the Greek deal and a small improvement in the euro area’s inflation data. The press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi will start at 12:30 GMT on Wednesday. Everyone will be interested in whether the central bank will be really buying more bonds in June. Draghi will likely assess the QE program as successful and underline that the ECB is fully committed to it. Support is at 1.0925 and 1.0850. Resistance is at 1.12 and 1.13 ahead of 1.1570.

GBP/USD found some support at the 100-day MA at 1.5165 and rose above 1.5300 on better-than-expected UK construction PMI. Britain will release services PMI at 08:30 GMT. Resistance is at 1.5340 and 1.5500.

USD/JPY tested more than 12-year high at 125.05 before sliding to 124.00. Support lies at 123.30 and 122.80. Resistance is at 125.10 and 125.50.

AUD/USD recovered to 0.7700. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept monetary policy unchanged and didn’t provide much of an easing rhetoric: the RBA is waiting for the Fed to make the first move. Australia will release Q1 GDP on Wednesday (01:30 GMT), a slight acceleration in economic growth is expected. Resistance is at 0.7740 and 0.7800.

In America watch the release of the ADP non-farm employment change at 12:15 GMT (forecast: +200K). USD will be data dependant. The sentiment about the US dollar is rather positive, so traders will be buying it on the dips.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5304

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 3

Open positions:*

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 133.90, TAKE PROFIT 140.51 (revised), STOP LOSS 136.08

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.4090 (revised), STOP LOSS 1.3582

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 189.80, TAKE PROFIT 193.17, STOP LOSS 188.49

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1190, TAKE PROFIT 1.0979, STOP LOSS 1.1221

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5315, TAKE PROFIT 1.5508, STOP LOSS 1.5215

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9290, TAKE PROFIT 0.9484, STOP LOSS 0.9244

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2330, TAKE PROFIT 1.2531, STOP LOSS 1.2260

USD/JPY: Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5308