Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for June 4

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains under bearish pressure for a second day in a row with the USD index falling below 96. Even the strong statistics fails to support the greenback: trade deficit narrowed, while the ADP NFP came at 201K. The reason for the USD weakness is growing optimism on the Greek issue and rising European yields. Tomorrow we’ll watch the unemployment claims, while on Friday the market will focus on May NFP.

EUR/USD jumped above 1.1200 on Wednesday. ECB left monetary policy unchanged,while Mario Draghi cheered the market up with optimistic comments on theinflationary prospects. Anyway, we don’t expect the rally to be long-lived. The 1.1300/1500 area will likely be highly resistive. Support is seen at 1.1050.

GBP/USD consolidates around 1.5300. The BOE meeting on Thursday will likely be a non-event. The recent economic weakness lowers the market expectations for a rate hike. We expect the cable to come under a renewed pressure with a target around 1,5160.

USD/JPY is driven mostly by the US rate hike expectations these days. Trend resistance lies at 124.60/125.00. Strong US data may provoke a break higher, but then the Japanese officials could intervene verbally. Support is seen at 123.60/70.

AUD/USD bounced from 0,7600 and soared by 200 pips in 2 days. Support is seen at 0,7750. We’ll be watching retail sales and trade balance tomorrow.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5325

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Euro is supported by the spike in German yields
4 June 2015

EUR/USD is trading in the 1.1250 area after it hit 1.1285 on Wednesday. German 10-year Bund yields rose today to 2015 highs. The European Central Bank President Mario Draghi was rather calm about the sharp rise in yields, while some investors expected him to talk them down. In addition, the markets are cautiously optimistic about Greece hoping that it will strike a deal with its creditors. The nation’s Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras declared yesterday after talks with senior EU officials that Athens would make a payment due to the IMF on Friday. EUR/JPY reached levels above 140.00.

USD/JPY is fluctuating above 124.00. AUD/USD slid towards 0.7700. Australia’s retail sales showed zero growth in April, while its trade deficit widened to the record level. Weak data revived expectations of further easing of the Reserve Bank of Australia.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2783

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: buy target – 1.6000
4 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/NZD rises inside C-wave
-Next buy target – 1.6000

EUR/NZD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the resistance trendline of the wide weekly down channel from last year. The breakout of this resistance trendline accelerated the active minor C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from April. This C-wave earlier broke the resistance levels 1.5400 (which stopped the previous A-wave) and 1.5600. Each of these successive breakouts accelerated the growth of this currency pair.

EUR/NZD is likely to rise further inside the active C-wave toward the next buy target at 1.6000 (target price calculated for the completion of the C-wave).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5332

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for June 5

The event risk in the coming sessions is extremely high. On Friday OPEC is due to announce the results of its meeting; Greece should pay 300 million euros to the IMF, while the US will release the key indicator of the labor market – Non Farm Payrolls – at 12:30 GMT. According to the consensus forecast, NFP increased by 226K in May.

EUR/USD reached 1.1385 driven by growth in German yields, but then returned to 1.1300 on better-than-expected data from the US released on Thursday (American unemployment claims declined). Traders are taking profits ahead of the US NFP release on Friday. We’ll surely see more volatility on Friday. The pair will follow the negative scenario (down to support at 1.1150, 1.1075 and 1.0975) if there’s no deal on Greece on Friday and the nation puts off paying to the IMF to the end of the month and if there’s a big upside surprise in the US NFP). If a temporary solution of Greek problem is found and NFP disappoints, EUR/USD may be able to rise to 1.1465, 1.1530 and 1.1600.

GBP/USD tested 1.5440. The Bank of England left its policy unchanged: the decision didn’t influence the pound much. Higher German yields are positive for GBP as well. Resistance is at 1.5445, 1.5500 and 1.5530 (200-day MA). Support is at 1.5300, 1.5250 and 1.5170 (daily MAs).

USD/JPY is fluctuating around 124.25. So far Japanese officials have done little to talk the pair down. There no bullish drivers for the pair from the side of Japan, but good figures from the US can push the dollar higher. Support is at 123.60/50, 123.30 and 122.70. Resistance is at 124.70, 125.05 and 125.70.

AUD/USD slid to 0.7725 after meeting resistance above 0.7800. Aussie bulls were discouraged by another dismal Australian data release. Resistance is at 0.7800 and 0.7850. Support is at 0.7600 and 0.7550. Selling the rallies looks like the best strategy.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5342

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 5

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.10, TAKE PROFIT 125.69, STOP LOSS 123.39

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5315, TAKE PROFIT 1.5508, STOP LOSS 1.5245

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9360, TAKE PROFIT 0.9543, STOP LOSS 0.9275

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7745, TAKE PROFIT 0.7572, STOP LOSS 0.7791

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 189.80, TAKE PROFIT 193.17, STOP LOSS 189.55

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7142, TAKE PROFIT 0.7000, STOP LOSS 0.7205

Trade ideas:

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2460, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667, STOP LOSS 1.2360

EUR/JPY: SELL at 139.85, TAKE PROFIT 138.05, STOP LOSS 140.51

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7260, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7195

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

______________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5346

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NFP: what do large banks forecast?
5 June 2015

On Friday, June 5, the market attention is glued to the US employment report. What do large banks expect from the today’s release?

Danske Bank: We expect 200K new jobs to have been added in May. Manufacturing is likely to remain the weak spot with the service sector driving job growth. Any rebound in average hourly earnings will indicate a clearer uptrend in wage inflation and convince the dovish Fed members that a 2015 hike is safe.

RBS: We expect the average hourly earnings to increase from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y (highest increase since 2009). Unemployment rate will hold steady at 5.4%

«Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies», analysts say.

Goldman Sachs: The 4-week MA of initial jobless claims fell by 19,K in May. However, the employment components of various manufacturing sectors have been weak. Mining sector job losses may persist as well. Warm weather likely inflated the jobs number in April, but this may have taken from jobs gains in May.

Barclays Capital:225K. Private payrolls are expected to have increased by 220K.

Credit Agricole: 210K. It will support our short-term upbeat view on the USD, especially against EUR, JPY and CHF.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5354

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

Roman Petuchov, FBS analyst

Weekly. The market keeps on declining in a bearish impulse wave [C],. It is a final part of the wave flat B.

Daily. Complex bullish correction (4) is currently being built. After that we expect the decline to resume.

H4. On the new week we'll se the market recovering in a bullish impulse C of (y).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5380

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

Roman Petuchov, FBS analyst

Weekly. The market is currently building a bullish zigzag A-B-C. Let's see the detailed markup of the impulse С.

Daily. Bullish correction [4] of C has been constructed. Bearish impulse [5] is now being born. The decline will continue on the new week.

H4. Correction (2) is over. The market is currenctly forming the wave (3). The decline will extend in the coming sessions.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5381

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for June 9

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar is retracing lower on Monday following the sharp growth on Friday. However, we do not expect the bearish correction to be long-lived: strong NFP and average hourly earnings made the markets believe that the Fed could raise the interest rate in September. The market is now looking forward to the retail sales release on Thursday. Forecast is upbeat (+1.1%), so the greenback could get another boost.

EUR/USD recovered towards the 1.1200 mark from the Friday’s low of 1.1050. German bond yields returned to growth following the strong manufacturing figures. However, we expect the decline to resume soon: break below 1.1050 could open the way to 1.0820.

GBP/USD found some support at 1.5200, but we expect the pair to extend the decline this week. Watch the UK trade balance on Tuesday. Break below the 1.5200 support will open the way to 1.5080. We’ll remain bearish below 1.5450.

USD/JPY retraced from the Friday’s peak of 125.85, but holds above the 125.00 support. The pair remains overbought, so we could see a dip to 124.60 in the coming sessions. This area could be a good point to rebuy the US dollar.

AUD/USD has once again found support at 0.7600. Next resistance lies at 0.7740 и 0.7810. Watch the Australia’s business confidence index and home loans tomorrow. Data could surprise the market to the downside. What’s more, China is scheduled to release May CPI and PPI (forecasts – negative).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5385

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 9

Open positions:*

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7745, TAKE PROFIT 0.7572, STOP LOSS 0.7730

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2460, TAKE PROFIT 1.2667, STOP LOSS 1.2360

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 139.50, TAKE PROFIT 141.72, STOP LOSS 138.85 (revised)

GBP/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.5300, TAKE PROFIT 1.5089, STOP LOSS 1.5375

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 189.80, TAKE PROFIT 193.17, STOP LOSS 189.55

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1380, STOP LOSS 1.1150

USD/JPY: BUY at 124.05, TAKE PROFIT 125.86, STOP LOSS 123.40

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7322 (revised), TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7249

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

EUR/CHF: Possibly BUY

NZD/USD: Possibly SELL

______________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5395

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Euro is supported by German data
9 June 2015

US dollar weakened versus its counterparts on Tuesday. On Monday US President Barack Obama denied a report that quoted him as saying the strong dollar was “a problem”. Still, the speculation has given many traders a reason to close USD longs.

EUR/USD rose to 1.1315. The single currency went up as German industrial production increased by 0.9% in May (forecast: +0.6%) and Bund yields rose to 0.89%. Uncertainty about Greece continues to limit the euro on the upside. Athens didn’t make any new proposal to its creditors.

USD/JPY eased down to 124.30. Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari said that it was up to financial markets to decide whether currencies were moving in line with economic fundamentals.

AUD/USD failed to hold above 0.7700 despite the fact that Australian business confidence rebounded to a 9-month high in May and home loans gained in April more than expected. Inflation in China, Australia’s main trade partner, came out lower than expected (1.2% vs. 1.5% in the previous period).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2819

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

BNP Paribas: stay long on USD
9 June 2015

The US dollar retraced all the last week's post-NFP gains at the beginning of the new week. That's how analysts at the French bank BNP Paribas explain the USD dynamics:

"US 2-year Treasury yields dipped to the pre-NFP levels. It means that the markets still don't believe in a rate hike before December 2015. Dovish FOMC comments, delivered last week, contributed to the investors' pessimism".

However, analysts recommend holding the USD longs ahead of the May retail sales data on Thursday: "Market sentiment will quickly change if the retail sales data look more like the NFP, than like the Q1 GDP. There are a lot of indications that the retail figures could come out strong in May".

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5396

 

[riki143]

Forex Trading Plan For June 10

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/video/54/380

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Yen rose on Kuroda's comments
10 June 2015

EUR/USD is little changed just below 1.1300. Market players are concerned about the lack of progress in negotiations between Greece and its creditors. A new reform proposal submitted by the nation this week failed to fully satisfy its European partners. Talks in Brussels with creditors were expected to continue today.

USD/JPY fell to 122.50 as the Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said the yen’s effective exchange rate is “very weak” and unlikely to weaken further. According to Kuroda, the Federal Reserve’s future rate hike is already priced in exchange rate.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2830

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 10

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1380, STOP LOSS 1.1150

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 124.05, STOP LOSS 123.40, Possibly BUY

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0465, TAKE PROFIT 1.0602, STOP LOSS 1.0397

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 190.85, STOP LOSS 190.35, Possibly BUY

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7745, TAKE PROFIT 0.7572, STOP LOSS 0.7730

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 139.50, STOP LOSS 138.99, Possibly BUY

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5280, TAKE PROFIT 1.5498, STOP LOSS 1.5215

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2310, TAKE PROFIT 1.2473, STOP LOSS 1.2230

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7322, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7249

NZD/USD: SELL higher

USD/CHF: Possibly SELL

____________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5413

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: likely to rise to 1.5500
10 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/USD reversed up from support level 1.5200
-Further gains likely toward 1.5500

GBP/USD continues to rise after the recent upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 1.5200, the lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from April. This support zone also previously reversed the price at the start of this month – as you can see below.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further toward the next strong resistance level 1.5500 – from where the pair is likely to reverse down toward the next sell target at 1.5200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5414

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for June 11

Kira Iukhtenko

On Wednesday, the US dollar retraced ground versus almost all the major currencies. The Bank of Japan governor Kuroda who said that the yen wouldn’t weaken much more provoked the move. As a result, USD/JPY plummeted from by 200 pips to 122.50. Afterwards the greenback depreciated against the other majors, especially the commodity block currencies.

Tomorrow the market will be focused on the US May retail sales data. According to the forecast, the indicator rose by 1,1% versus a 0% growth in the April. We expect the demand for the US currency to return ahead of the release.

EUR/USD holds above 1.1300 as the German yields still support the euro. Strong resistance is seen at 1.1500, while support is gathered around the 1.1050 mark. We expect the bearish pressure to resume on Thursday. There are no important releases on the euro zone’s agenda tomorrow.

GBP/USD jumped to 1.5550, testing the 200-day MA to the upside. The pair consolidates slightly below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement. Data today showed the UK NIESR GDP estimate rose 0.6% in May, overcoming expectations of 0.4%. We would like to note that the cable’s rally has already become overstretched – beware of a sharp selloff tomorrow.

Tonight we’ll get a bunch of important news for the commodity block currencies. Watch the RBNZ policy decision (some expect a rate cut to be announced), Australia labor market data (employment is expected to grow by 12.1K) and Chinese May industrial production figures (forecast – upbeat). All in all, the risky currencies could suffer from the tomorrow’s US retail sales. Strong data will likely increase the Fed’s rate hike expectations.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5426

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: buy target – 194.00
12 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY reached buy target 189.60
-Next buy target – 194.00

GBP/JPY recently reversed up sharply from the support area lying between the support level 189.60 and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward price impulse from the middle of May (as you can see below). The support level 189.60 is also the former strong resistance level – which reversed the previous intermediate (A)-wave in December and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair.

GBP/JPY is likely to rise further in the active minor impulse wave 5 toward the next buy target 194.00. GBP/JPY will need to break the weekly up channel from 2014 to reach this target.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5445

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY: buy target - 86.00
12 June 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY reached sell target 87.00
-Next buy target - 86.00

NZD/JPY continues to decline after the recent breakout of the support level 87.00 – which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 (which belongs to the 3rd intermediate impulse (3) from May) - which earlier broke the pivotal support level 88.00 (which was mentioned in our previous forecast for NZD/JPY).

NZD/JPY is likely to fall further inside the active impulse wave 3 toward the next sell target 86.00. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 87.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5443

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for June 15

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT from 123.52, TAKE PROFIT 121.78, STOP LOSS 124.65

GBP/USD: Hold LONG from 1.5447, TAKE PROFIT 1.5700, STOP LOSS 1.5415 (revised)

AUD/USD: Hold LONG from 0.7705, TAKE PROFIT 0.7846, STOP LOSS 0.7635

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.3850, TAKE PROFIT 1.4225, STOP LOSS 1.3690

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 191.00, TAKE PROFIT 193.73, STOP LOSS 190.09

EUR/JPY: Hold SHORT from 139.45, TAKE PROFIT 137.08, STOP LOSS 140.20

Trade ideas:

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0485, TAKE PROFIT 1.0312, STOP LOSS 1.0535

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7070, TAKE PROFIT 0.6878, STOP LOSS 0.7120

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2250, TAKE PROFIT 1.2442, STOP LOSS 1.2160

USD/CHF: Look to SELL

EUR/USD: Look to BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

__________________________________________________________
*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5467