Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

US dollar edged a bit higher
18 May 2015

US dollar rose a bit higher versus the major currencies on Monday, but remained not far from a 3-month low versus the euro after weak US economic data released last week increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will wait longer to raise interest rates. EUR/USD edged down to 1.1400. GBP/USD slid down to 1.5700 after it found resistance at 1.5800 last week. USD/JPY rose to 119.75.

AUD/USD is trying to hold above 0.8000. NZD/USD opened with a gap down and slid to 0.7416 after the government announced on Sunday a new capital gains tax on residential property investments to cool soaring prices in Auckland.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2674

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/CAD: sell target – 0.8900
18 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-NZD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target – 0.8900

NZD/CAD recently reversed down sharply from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.9030 (former strong support level which reversed wave (2) in February) and the 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave (which earlier broke the major support level 0.9180 and the support trendline of the wide daily up channel from December, as you can see below).

Given the strong intraday downtrend inside which the pair has been falling in the last two months - NZD/CAD can be expected to fall further toward the next sell target at the nearby support level 0.8900. Strong resistance remains at 0.9030.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5071

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/NZD: buy target - 2.1400
18 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/NZD reached buy targets 2.0930 and 2.1050
-Next buy target - 2.1400

GBP/NZD has been rising sharply in the last few trading sessions – breaking through the two resistance levels 2.0930 and 2.1050, - both of which were set as the buy targets in our previous forecast for this currency pair. After reaching these targets, GBP/NZD corrected down to the strong support level 2.0840 (former strong resistance level which stopped the previous waves (3) and B in February and March, as you can see below). The price reversed up from this support level with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Piercing Line.

GBP/NZD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target 2.1400 (which reversed the price earlier last week). Buy stop-loss can be placed below the strong support level 2.0840.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5069

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 19

The US dollar weakened last week as the series of worse than expected economic data from the US continued. At the beginning of the new week American currency experienced some correction.

EUR/USD slid to 1.1380 after it had found resistance at 1.1450. Traders were taking profits as the euro approached the key level of 1.1500. In addition, concerns about Greece have increased as the nation’s financial position is extremely fragile. On Tuesday watch the release of German ZEW economic sentiment index and the euro area’s final April CPI at 09:00 GMT. Support lies at 1.1290 and 1.1185.

GBP/USD fell to 1.5650 after finding resistance in the 1.5800 area. Deeper retracement down is likely. Watch the UK inflation data at 08:30 GMT. Support is at 1.5570 and 1.5500 ahead of 1.5400.

USD/JPY rose to 119.75. Resistance is at 119.88 and 120.15. Support is at 119.15. Range trading continues.

AUD/USD is testing levels below 0.8000. Aussie was affected by comments of the Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Lowe who said that the central bank still can lower interest rates further. Early on Tuesday the RBA will release the minutes of its May meeting when it cut the benchmark interest rate to 2%. Support is at 0.7950, 0.7900 and 0.7800.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5082

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/CAD: buy targets - 1.9150 and 1.9400
19 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/CAD reached buy target 1.9000
-Next buy targets - 1.9150 and 1.9400

GBP/CAD continues to rise after the pair earlier broke above the round resistance level 1.9000 - which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level should add to the bullish pressure on this currency pair in the coming trading sessions. The price is likely to rise further inside the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which is a part of the impulse 3 of the intermediate corrective (C)-wave from the middle of April.

GBP/CAD is expected to rise to the next buy targets 1.9150 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (iii) – followed by 1.9400 (which reversed the price in February).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5088

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: clouds on the European sky
19 May 2015

EUR/USD slipped to 1.1160 on the expectations of the weak German ZEW economic sentiment index. The expectations were right: the index came out at 41.9 in May vs, the forecast of 48.8 and 53.3 in April.

Another bearish factor for the single currency was the comment of the ECB Board member Benoit Coeuré that the ECB would be ‘front loading’ asset purchases in May and June given likely low market liquidity in July and August. The European Central bank has thus reminded the market that it’s doing quantitative easing that lowers the European yields.

Analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch see the signs of a top in German 10-year bund yields like the bearish shooting star candle and inability to rise above 0.78%. If the yield falls below the 200-day MA at 0.60% and May 8 low at 0.52%, it will head down to 0.38%. The rise of German yields since the middle of April to mid May was driving EUR/USD up. Without this moving force the pair will lose its strength.

Still EUR/USD has good support at 1.1100/1.1050. This area should limit the losses of the single currency at least ahead the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes on Wednesday. At the same time, we expect negative pressure on the euro to strengthen.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5095

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: sell targets – 0.7130 and 0.7100
19 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP reached the sell target 0.7200
-Next sell targets – 0.7130 and 0.7100

EUR/GBP recently reached the sell target 0.7200 which was set in our previous forecast for this pair. After reaching this sell target EUR/GBP corrected up to the resistance zone lying between the 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci Retracement levels of the earlier sharp minor corrective wave 2, which started earlier this month. The downward reversal from the aforementioned zone continues the strong downtrend which can be seen on the daily EUR/GBP.

EUR/GBP is likely to fall further to the next sell target 0.7130 (which reversed previous waves (B) and 2). If EUR/GBP breaks below the support level 0.7130 – the pair can then fall further to 0.7100.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5090

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 20

EUR/USD slid below the 100-day MA at 1.1175. Support lies at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.1000. The pair was under attack from both sides: the euro was weakened by the comments of the ECB board member about the asset purchases in May and June and bad figures from Germany, while the US dollar was strengthened by the unexpectedly good American housing market data. On Wednesday the Fed will release minutes of its April meeting. We don’t expect the central bank to signal a June rate hike, but once again say that all will depend on the economic data. This may limit the dollar’s decline, but with the increased pressure on the euro, EUR/USD should be a sell on rallies.

GBP/USD fell to 1.5450. UK CPI contracted in April on the annual basis. This means that the Bank of England may be father away from raising the interest rates than the market has thought. On Wednesday the Bank of England will release its meeting minutes. Decline below 1.5400 will open the way down to 1.5270 and 1.5150. Resistance is in the 1.5570/1.5600 area.

USD/JPY rose towards 120.50 on good figures from the US. The pair awaits the release of Japan’s Q1 GDP. Weak reading will help the pair get higher. Further resistance is at 120.85 and 121.00. Support is located at 119.90, 119.50 and 119.30.

AUD/USD fell to 0.7935. The minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes showed that the central bank doesn’t rule out further rate cuts. Support is at 0.7855 and 0.7780. The levels of 0.8000/30 are now acting as resistance.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5103

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
20 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 356m), 1.1200 (221m);

GBP/USD: 1.5690 (GBP 597m), 1.5600 (500m), 1.5450 (273m);

USD/JPY: 119.75 (USD 840m), 120.00 (730m);

USD/CAD: 1.2185 (USD 370m), 1.2205/10 (400m);

AUD/USD: 0.7900 (AUD 332m);

NZD/USD: 0.7250 (NZD 522m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2684

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 20

Open positions:*

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7955, TAKE PROFIT 0.8164, STOP LOSS 0.7858

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0395

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7425, TAKE PROFIT 0.7192, STOP LOSS 0.7510

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1166, TAKE PROFIT 1.1052, STOP LOSS 1.1218

USD/JPY: BUY at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 121.41, STOP LOSS 119.75

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9300, TAKE PROFIT 0.9481, STOP LOSS 0.9245

USD/CAD: BUY at 1.2105, TAKE PROFIT 1.2306, STOP LOSS 1.2003

GBP/USD: Possibly BUY on dips

EUR/JPY: Possibly BUY on dips

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5108

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 21

By Kira Iukhtenko


https://www.youtube.com/watch?t=11&v=CvYWk7E1KgE

The US dollar extends recovery for a third day in a row. On Thursday, we’ll watch the US unemployment claims and the Philly Fed manufacturing index (forecast – rise to 8,3).

EUR/USD tested 1.1060 on Wednesday, falling below the 100-day MA at 1.1160. Fix below 1.1060/50 would open the way for a decline to 1.0700. Greek problems remain a bearish factor for the euro. Watch the European PMI indices on Thursday – activity is expected to decline a little. Later in the day, the ECB will release its April meeting minutes.

GBP/USD is trying to recover back above 1.5500, supported by the BOE meeting minutes release. The next targets are seen at 1.5570 and 1.5600. Watch the UK retail sales on Thursday (forecast: +0,4%).

AUD/USD remains under pressure for a 5th day in a row and fell below 0.7900. The trend line support was broken to the downside. Next target is seen at 0.7790. NZD/USD is testing the important support at 0.7320. Fix below will open the way to 0.7175. Watch the Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI tonight (forecast: 49,4).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5123

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 21

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 122.03, STOP LOSS 120.19

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7955, TAKE PROFIT 0.8164, STOP LOSS 0.7858

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2352, STOP LOSS 1.2128

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 187.30, TAKE PROFIT 190.40, STOP LOSS 185.94

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7425, TAKE PROFIT 0.7192, STOP LOSS 0.7390

Trade signals:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1166, TAKE PROFIT 1.0994, STOP LOSS 1.1245

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5505, TAKE PROFIT 1.5670, STOP LOSS 1.5440

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9300, TAKE PROFIT 0.9481, STOP LOSS 0.9245

EUR/JPY: SELL at 135.40, TAKE PROFIT 133.11, STOP LOSS 135.90

EUR/CHF: SELL at 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0305, STOP LOSS 1.0507

EUR/CAD: Possibly SELL

_____________________________________________________________

Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5129

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 22

US Dollar slowed its recovery on Thursday. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting minutes took the June rate hike off the table as most of the members believe the economy remains too weak. On Friday, States are scheduled to release its CPI at 12:30 GMT. Consumer prices are expected to have stayed in a green zone in April (+0.1% vs. +0.2% in March). Fed’s Chair Yellen will deliver a speech at 17:00 GMT (comments on the US economic outlook are expected).

EUR/USD has support at 1.1050: a close below this level is needed for further bearish developments. Support then will be at 1.0990 and 1.0905. Resistance is at 1.1225, 1.1250 and 1.1290. Watch the comments of the ECB’s President Mario Draghi at 08:00 GMT.

GBP/USD popped up to 1.5700 as the UK retail sales surprised to the upside on Thursday (+1.2% vs. +0.4% expected). We are ready to go long on a break above 1.5700. Next resistance is now seen at 1.5810 (May 14 high) and then at 1.5890 (200-week MA). Watch the public sector net borrowing data and the BOE’s Carney and Shafik speeches on Friday.

USD/JPY closed at 121.35 on Wednesday before retreating to 120.85 on Thursday. US dollar was helped by rising stocks and volatility created by the release of the Federal Reserve’s meeting minutes. On Friday pay attention to the Bank of Japan’s meeting and press conference. There are some rumors that the central bank may upgrade its economic assessment. If that happens, this will reduce the odds of further monetary stimulus and make the yen strengthen. SupportforUSD/JPYliesat 120.50 and120.00/119.80. Resistanceisat 121.80/122.00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5142

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/CAD: buy target - 0.9030
22 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-NZD/CAD reached sell target 0.8900
-Next buy target - 0.9030

NZD/CAD recently reversed up sharply from the support level 0.8900 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The upward reversal from this support level continues the active impulse wave ③ – which started earlier this month, when the pair reversed up sharply from the strong support level 0.8900. The upward reversal from this support level led to the formation of the strong Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Morning Star (the middle candle of which is also the Hammer).

NZD/CAD is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9030.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5144

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: sell target – 1.0600
22 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target – 1.0600

AUD/NZD continues to decline after recently reversing down from the strong resistance level 1.0810 (which also previously reversed the minor corrective wave 2 at the end of January, as you can see below). The resistance zone near 1.0810 was strengthened by the upper daily Bollinger Band and by 61.8% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward price thrust from October. The price recently created the two daily Japanese candlesticks reversal patterns near the resistance level 1.0810 – Falling Star and Bearish Engulfing.

Having recently completed the intermediate ABC correction (2) - AUD/NZD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target 1.0600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5146

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Concerns about Greece hurt the euro
25 May 2015

EUR/USD fell to 1.0970. The single currency is under pressure because of the concerns about Greece.

The Greek interior minister, Nikos Voutsis, said on Sunday that Athens cannot make a 300 million euros ($330 million) debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund on June 5 unless it manages to reach a deal with its lenders.

All in all, Greece has to pay 1.56 billion euros ($1.72 billion) next month. The nation hasn’t received bailout aid since August and the European Central Bank has provided less help lately to Greek banks.

In the meantime, the ruling Radical Left Coalition Syriza narrowly rejected a call by party hardliners to miss its next International Monetary Fund loan payment. However, the party instead approved a text which claims the government will not sign a deal based on previous bailout agreements and rejects “ultimatums” by “the austerity fanatics.” Still, Syriza believes that a compromise with creditors is possible.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2692

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 25

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT from 1.1115, TAKE PROFIT 1.0882, STOP LOSS 1.1210 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG from 120.80, TAKE PROFIT 122.03, STOP LOSS 120.45

USD/CHF: Hold LONG from 0.9300, TAKE PROFIT 0.9599 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.9279

USD/CAD: Hold LONG from 1.2200, TAKE PROFIT 1.2352, STOP LOSS 1.2160 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT from 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7200

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT from 1.0450, TAKE PROFIT 1.0305, STOP LOSS 1.0507

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG from 187.30, TAKE PROFIT 192.00, STOP LOSS 187.82

Trade ideas:

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3482, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3392

NZD/USD: SELL at 0.7345, TAKE PROFIT 0.7177, STOP LOSS 0.7400

GBP/USD: Possibly SELL

AUD/USD: Possibly SELL

EUR/JPY: Possibly SELL

________________________________________________________

Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5170

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Westpac: fresh Forex forecasts
25 May 2015

Here are the fresh Forex forecasts from the large Australian bank Westpac (end of period).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5171

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 26

The picture for EUR/USD remains negative. Euro was under pressure on Monday because of concerns about Greece and the lack of liquidity at the market because of the bank holidays. Levels at 1.1000, 1.1050 and 1.1100 now act as resistance. Support is located at 1.0915 and 1.0880. The focus will be on data from the US: durable goods orders at 12:30 GMT and consumer confidence at 14:00 GMT. Also watch the speeches of the Federal Reserve’s officials.

USD/JPY has made a big move to the upside after better-than-expected US inflation data and Yellen’s comments on Friday. The US dollar is currently waiting for more catalysts from America (watch data releases on Tuesday): it all depends on the US. The pair doesn’t have full force for growth as the Bank of Japan indicated that it’s not planning to increase monetary easing for now. Resistance is at 121.85/122.05. Support is at 120.65/50 and 120.00. Buying at the lower levels may prove to be a good strategy.

GBP/USD slid below the trend line support from mid-April. Recent data from the UK was mixed, while in the US there was an unexpected improvement. Another positive release from the US will send the pound further down. Resistance is at 1.5505, 1.5530 and 1.5580 (200-day MA).Support is at 1.5450 and 1.5390/40. EUR/GBP slid below 0.7115 and may revisit 0.7025.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5184

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

by Roman Petukhov.

Weekly. At present, a downward impulse [C] is being formed, which is the final part of the wave B area.

Daily. Wave [C] markup is presented on the chart. Last week, the pair's decline within a new bearish wave (5) began; let us consider the markup of the last section in detail.

H4. Waves [1] and [2] have already been formed. Sliding within a new downward impulse [3] has begun in the last section. Today and in the coming days, we expect further falling, as indicated on the chart.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5173