Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 8

The market’s attitude towards the US dollar has dramatically deteriorated in comparison with the hopes seen at the beginning of the week. ADP employment report missed the forecast, especially taking into account the fact that the previous reading was revised to the downside. The unemployment claims released on Thursday, however, came lower than expected (265K vs. 277K) – this is the main source of hope for the USD bulls ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls. NFP is expected to show gain of 227K jobs vs. 126K in March. The unemployment rater is expected to decline from 5.5% to 5.4%.

Friday promises a very volatile trading. We’ll see bigger market reaction if NFP disappoints than if it comes at a good level. Our main scenario is to prepare for a USD-negative scenario.

EUR/USD reached 1.1390 where it met some resistance. The euro looks overbought. Support is at 1.1250 (100-day MA) and 1.1150. If US NFP is below forecast, the pair may jump to 1.1500/35.

GBP/USD is awaiting the results of the UK election: the exit polls figures will be available around 21:00 GMT. Conservatives ahead will be GBP-positive, while Labourists ahead will be GBP-negative. Watch support at 1.5100 and resistance at 1.5270. A break of one of these levels may provoke a move either to 1.4900 or 1.5550.

USD/JPY is slowly declining for the fourth day in a row. Support is at 118.70/50. Resistance is at 120.00 and 120.50. Below the latter level the bears will continue to dominate. A miss in NFP will make the pair challenge 118.50/30.

AUD/USD has lost some momentum as it failed to settle above 0.8000 as Australian labor market data was weaker than forecasts. Resistance is at 0.8030. Support is at 0.7900, 0.7840 and 0.7760. The Reserve Bank of Australia will release monetary policy statement on Friday morning. Buying on the dips may prove to be a right strategy.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4945

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
8 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1100 (EUR 522m), 1.1200 (1.5bln), 1.1295 (563m), 1.1345/50 (680m)

GBP/USD: 1.4900 (GBP 359m), 1.5000 (190m), 1.5100 (285m)

USD/JPY: 119.00 (USD 1.25bln), 120.00 (927m), 120.50 (1bln), 121.25 (478m)

USD/CAD: 1.2100 (745m), 1.2300 (475m)

AUD/USD: 0.7800 (592m), 0.7925 (393m), 0.8015 (204m)

AUD/NZD: 1.0600 (312m)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2656

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 8

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1235, TAKE PROFIT 1.1450, STOP LOSS 1.1199

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9445, TAKE PROFIT 0.9046, STOP LOSS 0.9284

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8182, STOP LOSS 0.7850

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.85, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 134.04

EUR/CHF: Hold SHORT at 1.0350, TAKE PROFIT 1.0236, STOP LOSS 1.0407

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7333, STOP LOSS 0.7585 (revised)

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.50, TAKE PROFIT 121.20, STOP LOSS 119.03

GBP/JPY: BUY at 182.95, TAKE PROFIT 187.30, STOP LOSS 181.70

GBP/USD: Look to BUY at 1.5345/40

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

EUR/GBP: Possibly BUY

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4947

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: agenda for May 11-15

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD rose to 1.1390 supported by the rising German bund yields before its advance paused as US labor market data came out better than some had feared.

Let’s see what the coming week is preparing for EUR/USD. On Monday, May 11, the euro area’s finance ministers will once again meet to discuss the Greek question. Although in April this date was referred to as the deadline for making decision about granting Greece the final 7.2-billion euro tranche of the bailout money, the recent comments from the European authorities show that a deal between the troubled nations and its creditors remains unlikely at this point.

In the past week Greece has managed to make a 200-million-euro interest payment to the International Monetary Fund. However, paying another 750-million-euro to the IMF on Tuesday, May 12, may be very difficult. On Friday, May 15, Greece faces a T-bill redemption for 1.4 billion euro – this is not a problem, because the nation can just rollover such debt. The payment to the IMF is trickier: if there’s no deal at the Eurogroup the day before, Greece will have to choose between paying the IMF and paying public sector wages and pensions. All this creates negative risks for the euro.

On Wednesday watch the releases of the euro zone’s flash Q1 GDP data. All in all, there’s a gradual improvement in European economic fundamentals and this should be reflected in the release and support the euro.

A close below May 1 high at 1.1290 and below the 100-day MA at 1.1240 will be a negative factor. Support is at 1.1100, 1.1050 and 1.0905. This support looks strong. A close above these levels will open the way to 1.1515/30 (50% Fibo of the December-March decline, February high), although the Greek uncertainty that will return to focus will make the ascent of th single currency more difficult.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4964

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY: sell target - 88.00
11 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY broke support level 89.00
-Next sell target - 88.00

NZD/JPY continues to fall inside the second minor corrective wave (ii) – which started earlier last month, when the pair reversed down sharply from the strong resistance level 92.00 which has been reversing the price from March and which was set as the buy target in our previous report for this currency pair. After reaching this buy target the pair reversed down strongly breaking through the support trendline from the start of February coinciding with the round support level 90.00.

The pair started this week by breaking the next support level 89.00 (intersecting with the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from February). NZD/JPY is likely to fall further to the next sell target 88.00 (50% Fibonacci Correction of the aforementioned upward impulse).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4972

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: sell target – 0.7200
11 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP reversed from resistance area
-Next sell target – 0.7200

EUR/GBP recently reversed down sharply from the combined resistance area lying between the resistance levels 0.7430 and 0.7370 (this resistance level earlier reversed the previous waves (A) and B in March and April, as you can see below). This resistance zone was further strengthened by the upper resistance trendline of the daily up channel from March, 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from December and by the upper daily Bollinger Band.

EUR/GBP reversed down from the aforementioned resistance zone with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing (completing the previous primary correction ②). EUR/GBP is likely to fall to the next sell target 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4974

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 12

Open positions:*

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.67, STOP LOSS 119.03

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8185, STOP LOSS 0.7850

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 189.71, STOP LOSS 184.37 (revised)

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7530

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1108, TAKE PROFIT 1.1289, STOP LOSS 1.1050

EUR/JPY: BUY at 133.55, TAKE PROFIT 135.38, STOP LOSS 133.08

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5523, TAKE PROFIT 1.5682, STOP LOSS 1.5460

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9394, TAKE PROFIT 0.9203, STOP LOSS 0.9450

EUR/GBP: SELL at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4988

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY: buy target – 189.600
12 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY broke resistance level 184.70
-Next buy target – 189.600

GBP/JPY has been rising sharply in the last few weeks – following the earlier breakout of the round resistance level 180.00 (which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level greatly accelerated the previous minor impulse wave (i) – which then broke the daily Triangle from last October. This impulse wave then reversed down from the strong resistance level 184.70 – starting the next minor correction (ii) which stopped at the upper trendline of the aforementioned, recently broken Triangle. The subsequent impulse wave (iii) form this trendline broke the resistance level 184.70.

With the daily Momentum recently reaching new yearly highs, GBP/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the strong resistance level 189.600 (top of previous wave A).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4991

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: buy target - 1.5800
12 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-GBP/USD reached buy target 1.5520
-Next buy target - 1.5800

GBP/USD yesterday broke sharply above the strong resistance level 1.5520 (the top of the previous intermediate correction (4), which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The price earlier reversed down from this price level to the support zone lying between the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the previous sharp intermediate corrective wave (A) and the former resistance trendline of the wide extended daily down channel form last year (acting as support now after it was broken).

The active (C)-wave which started from the aforementioned support zone recently broke the resistance level 1.5520. GBP/USD is set to rise further toward the next buy target 1.5800 (upper boundary of the previous sideways price range from December).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/4989

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 13

Kira Iukhtenko

The US dollar got some support from the April labor market data released on Friday (US NFP came at 223K, while unemployment declined to 5.4%). However, it is not enough to reverse the current bearish USD trend. The market will watch the April retail sales data on Wednesday.

EUR/USD recovered and is trying to hold above 100-day MA at 1.1218. The euro is supported by the rising German bund yields and some stop levels which were hit above 1.1200. Strong support is at 1.1050. On Wednesday don’t miss the euro zone’s flash Q1 GDP data, the forecasts are positive. Resistance is at 1.1290 (May 1 high) and 1.1390 (May 7 high). The single currency has potential for a bit higher, but concerns about Greece will limit the upside.

GBP/USD extends the upside following the parliamentary election. The pair tested the levels above 1.5700 on Tuesday. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching the UK labor market figures and the BOE quarterly inflation report. Resistance is seen at 1,5780 (Dec. 14 high) and 1,5890 (50% Fibonacci).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5002

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 13

Open positions:*

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.25, TAKE PROFIT 136.70, STOP LOSS 133.09

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 191.02, STOP LOSS 185.99

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7600, TAKE PROFIT 0.7276 (revised), STOP LOSS 0.7470 (revised)

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 119.90, TAKE PROFIT 121.67, STOP LOSS 119.23

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5655, TAKE PROFIT 1.5945, STOP LOSS 1.5550

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8185, STOP LOSS 0.7876 (revised)

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: BUY at 1.1205, TAKE PROFIT 1.1392, STOP LOSS 1.1129

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9320, TAKE PROFIT 0.9072, STOP LOSS 0.9415

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2044, TAKE PROFIT 1.1803, STOP LOSS 1.2117

EUR/CAD: Possibly BUY

__________________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5012

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for May 14

EUR/USD rose above 1.1300. Initially the single currency was affected by a bit lower than expected euro area’s economic growth in Q1 (0.4% vs. forecast of 0.5%) and a decline in the region’s industrial production, but then the US released weak retail sales figures (growth slowed down from 1.1% to 0%) which hurt the greenback. This is the evidence that the US economy is doing badly in the second quarter. On Thursday watch American PPI and unemployment claims. In France and Germany banks will be closed for a holiday. Resistance is at 1.1390, 1.1470 and 1.1500. Support is at 1.1160 and 1.1100.

GBP/USD remains supported on Wednesday even despite the dovish inflation report. The BOE lowered its 2015-2016 growth forecast and confirmed that inflation will stay subdued before returning to the target in 2 years. BOE’s forecasts are based on gradual rate hikes, beginning from mid-2016. As a result, expectations for a rate hike in 2015 decreased today. Note that the labor market data reflected improvement. As for the technicals, we remain bullish for GBP/USD above 1.5500 and target 1.5790 in the coming sessions. Post-election optimism and USD-disappointment will likely drive the pair up.

USD/JPY slid to 119.00 and may test lower levels at 118.50/30 and 118.00. Resistance is at 119.80. AUD/USD jumped up to 0.8100 on the expectations on more easing in China and bad news from the US. Aussie has a chance to strengthen to 0.8200/40. Support is at 0.8030 and 0.8000.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5022

 

[riki143]

MARKET NEWS

Key option levels
14 May 2015

FXBAZOOKA.com - Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (15:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: 1.1300 (EUR 478m);

GBP/USD: 1.5570 (GBP 202m);

USD/JPY: 119.10 (USD 900m), 119.50 (500m), 120.00 (2.7bln);

AUD/USD: 0.8030 (AUD 200m);

EUR/GBP: 0.7255 (EUR 200m), 0.7290 (405m).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/2670

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD has good support
14 May 2015

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD continues conquering new highs as it is testing levels above 1.1400. A day's close above last week’s high at 1.1390 is needed to open the way for future gains in the euro. Near-term support is at 1.1290.

The pair was driven up by the combination of weak data from the US and growth in German bund yields. Euro has managed to overcome lower-than-expected German GDP growth as the overall euro area’s economic growth accelerated a bit.

The increase of German bund yields is currently a strong driver of the single currency. German 10-year bonds are considered to be a safe haven. This asset has led the selloff at the world’s bond market since the middle of April. As long as investors continue selling bunds and their yield keeps rising, EUR/USD will have strength to go higher.

So, the key question to foresee further development of the situation is why traders sell German bunds. The answer is that bond yields at the beginning of 2015 were very low. On the sings of a pickup in inflation which is eroding bond value market players started to sell them. Even though experts expect demand for German bunds to stabilize eventually, it’s still weak and the bond selloff may continue for a bit longer supporting EUR/USD. It will be important what the ECB President Mario Draghi says today at 15:00 GMT.

At the daily chart we see strong support in the 1.1100/1.1050 area. As long as it holds, upside targets are at 1.1500 and 1.1625.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5033

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF: sell target – 0.9060
14 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reversed from resistance level 0.9350
-Next sell target – 0.9060

USD/CHF recently reversed sharply down from the resistance level 0.9350 (coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave 1 from April). The previous impulse wave earlier broke through the strong support level 0.9500 and the 200-day moving average (as you can see below) – thereby giving strong bearish signal. The latest downward reversal from the resistance level 0.9350 completed the previous minor correction 2 and starting the active impulse wave 3.

USD/CHF is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9060 (which reversed the previous minor impulse wave 1).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5031

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/JPY: buy target - 98.30
14 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-AUD/JPY broke resistance levels 94.50 and 96.00
-Next buy target - 98.30

AUD/JPY has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions – following the breakout of the resistance level 94.50 (top of the previous A-wave from March, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of this resistance level coincided with the breakout of the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp downward impulse wave from November. This double breakout accelerated the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from February – helping AUD/JPY break the next resistance level 96.00.

AUD/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next resistance level 98.30 (target price for the termination of the active C-wave).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5029

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for May 15

Data released in the US on Thursday was mixed: the unemployment claims turned out to be better than expected, but producer prices unexpectedly contracted. The latter will add to the expectations that the Federal Reserve will start raising interest rates rather later than sooner. On Friday there will be some more releases in America: industrial production at 13:15 GMT and preliminary consumer sentiment at 14:00 GMT.

EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1400. Support is at 1.1290, 1.1170 and 1.1100. Resistance is at 1.1500 and 1.1620.

GBP/USD rose above 1.5800. Resistance is at 1.5880 (50% Fibo of the 2014-2015 decline) and 1.5900 (200-week MA). Support is at 1.5625 (200-day MA) and 1.5570/50. Economic data released in the UK remain encouraging, but the Bank of England downgraded economic outlook in the Inflation Report released on Wednesday. The pound has potential to rise a bit higher, but be cautious with big longs.

USD/JPY found some support at 119.00, though the pair still looks vulnerable for a decline to 118.50/30. On Friday pay attention to the speech of the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda.

Support for AUD/USD is at 0.8060 and 0.8000. On the upside target lies in the 0.8250 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5040

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for May 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold LONG at 1.1230, TAKE PROFIT 1.1534, STOP LOSS 1.1275

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5655, TAKE PROFIT 1.5945, STOP LOSS 1.5600

USD/CHF: Hold SHORT at 0.9135, TAKE PROFIT 0.8936, STOP LOSS 0.9215

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7950, TAKE PROFIT 0.8234, STOP LOSS 0.8000 (revised)

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 134.25, TAKE PROFIT 137.64, STOP LOSS 135.03 (revised)

EUR/GBP: Hold SHORT at 0.7220, TAKE PROFIT 0.7014, STOP LOSS 0.7320

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0395, TAKE PROFIT 1.0546, STOP LOSS 1.0345

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.50, TAKE PROFIT 191.02, STOP LOSS 185.99

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 118.83, TAKE PROFIT 120.28, STOP LOSS 118.28

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.2044, TAKE PROFIT 1.1803, STOP LOSS 1.2117

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.3587, TAKE PROFIT 1.3891, STOP LOSS 1.3537

__________________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5044

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: buy target – 1.1600
15 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/USD approached resistance level 1.1450
-Next buy target – 1.1600

EUR/USD recently reversed up from the support level 1.1125 (which is the upper boundary of the former resistance zone lying between price levels 1.1125 and 1.1000). The support zone near the support level 1.1125 was further strengthened by the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily up channel from March (acting as support now after it was broken). The upward reversal from the support level 1.1125 completed the minor correction 2 – starting the active impulse wave 3.

EUR/USD is currently trading close to the resistance level 1.1450 (which reversed waves (4), 2 and 4 in February). If the pair breaks above 1.1450 - EUR/USD can then rise to the next buy target 1.1600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5049

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: buy target - 1.5400 and 1.5600
15 May 2015

By: Dima Chernovolov

-EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.5200
-Next buy target - 1.5400 and 1.5600

EUR/NZD has been rising in the last few trading sessions inside the second minor corrective wave 2, which started in the middle of last month. This minor correction recently broke the resistance level 1.5200, which was set as the buy target in our previous technical analysis report for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level was preceded by the breakout of the pivotal resistance level 1.5000 (coinciding with 50% Fibonacci Correction of the earlier downward impulse from December).

EUR/NZD is currently trading close to the resistance trendline of the wide daily down channel from last September. If the pair breaks this trendline - EUR/NZD can then rise to the next buy targets 1.5400 and 1.5600.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/5047