Morning brief for February 16
2/16/2017
The US dollar ran out steam in the course of the Asian session as investors took their profits. Wednesday’s US economic data and Fed Chair Yellen testimony lifted the odds for a March hike to 48% from earlier 37%. Coming back to the data, CPI figures for January were really strong; they doubled the market consensus at 0.6%. Well, much of these gains reflects petrol prices’ rally, but the core data also rose strongly to 0.3% which takes the annual rate to 2.3%. The CPI gives a good indication for the PCE measure closely watched by the Fed when it sets interest rate. A rule of thumb – the PCE is usually 0.5% less than the CPI which makes the annual core PCE to 1.8%. It’s very close to the Fed’s coveted target, isn’t it? The US retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing index were also very strong. The latter one spiked to 18.7 which is well above the consensus figures (7.0). Yellen’s testimony before Congress offered no additional insight on the timing of the next rate hike. She simply reiterated the points she made on Tuesday to the Senate. Today’s focus will be on the US construction data, unemployment claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing.
The euro edged up to 1.0620 on the session. USD/JPY slid to 113.40 from yesterday’s high at around 114.50 although there were no significant data releases or news.
The Australian jobs report was in the spotlight today. The headline was upbeat signaling a tepid recovery of the labor market. Aussie jumped to almost 0.7700 on the data and maintained in that area without many further advances.
NZD/USD also went higher in the course of the Asian session having risen to 0.7175. You should closely watch New Zealand retail sales figures coming at 11:45 pm MT time.
Loonie gathered momentum and gained some point against the greenback. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3030. Yesterday’s Canadian manufacturing sales release was supportive to CAD. The economic calendar for USD/CAD is light with the focus on the US data releases. Oil prices decelerated their pace. Brent was flat at $55.75, US crude dipped to $53 levels.
GBP/USD experienced a modest upsurge on the session. It rose to 1.2480 having partially pared its earlier losses. The market participants still wait for the details on the timing of the formal Brexit. Senior government officials expect PM Theresa May to make the announcement on March 9 – March 10 at the EU summit in Brussels right after the final vote on the bill in the House of Lords on March 7.
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12506
2/16/2017
The US dollar ran out steam in the course of the Asian session as investors took their profits. Wednesday’s US economic data and Fed Chair Yellen testimony lifted the odds for a March hike to 48% from earlier 37%. Coming back to the data, CPI figures for January were really strong; they doubled the market consensus at 0.6%. Well, much of these gains reflects petrol prices’ rally, but the core data also rose strongly to 0.3% which takes the annual rate to 2.3%. The CPI gives a good indication for the PCE measure closely watched by the Fed when it sets interest rate. A rule of thumb – the PCE is usually 0.5% less than the CPI which makes the annual core PCE to 1.8%. It’s very close to the Fed’s coveted target, isn’t it? The US retail sales and the Empire State Manufacturing index were also very strong. The latter one spiked to 18.7 which is well above the consensus figures (7.0). Yellen’s testimony before Congress offered no additional insight on the timing of the next rate hike. She simply reiterated the points she made on Tuesday to the Senate. Today’s focus will be on the US construction data, unemployment claims, and Philly Fed Manufacturing.
The euro edged up to 1.0620 on the session. USD/JPY slid to 113.40 from yesterday’s high at around 114.50 although there were no significant data releases or news.
The Australian jobs report was in the spotlight today. The headline was upbeat signaling a tepid recovery of the labor market. Aussie jumped to almost 0.7700 on the data and maintained in that area without many further advances.
NZD/USD also went higher in the course of the Asian session having risen to 0.7175. You should closely watch New Zealand retail sales figures coming at 11:45 pm MT time.
Loonie gathered momentum and gained some point against the greenback. USD/CAD dropped to 1.3030. Yesterday’s Canadian manufacturing sales release was supportive to CAD. The economic calendar for USD/CAD is light with the focus on the US data releases. Oil prices decelerated their pace. Brent was flat at $55.75, US crude dipped to $53 levels.
GBP/USD experienced a modest upsurge on the session. It rose to 1.2480 having partially pared its earlier losses. The market participants still wait for the details on the timing of the formal Brexit. Senior government officials expect PM Theresa May to make the announcement on March 9 – March 10 at the EU summit in Brussels right after the final vote on the bill in the House of Lords on March 7.
More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12506
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