Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0650
2/14/2017

AUD/NZD reached buy target 1.0650
Next buy target - 1.0740

AUD/NZD continues to rise after the recent breakout of the key resistance level 1.0650 (which earlier reversed the price sharply in last November and which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair). The breakout of the resistance level 1.0650 accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the end of January.

AUD/NZD is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the key resistance level 1.0740 (which reversed previous waves (1) and (a) in last October, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12476

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Hammer" led to correction
2/14/2017

The price reached the lower side of the support area, so we’ve got a “Tower”. If this pattern confirms, bulls are likely going to test the 21 Moving Average, which could be a departure point to another decline.

We’ve got a “Hammer” and a “Tweezes” at the last low. Also, there’s a “Harami” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest support once again. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward price movement in the direction of the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12478

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bearish "Shooting Star"
2/14/2017

There’s a bearish “Harami” on the 89 Moving Average. Considering a confirmation of this pattern, the market is likely going to decline in the short term. If a pullback from the nearest support happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another upward price movement.

The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support. Also, we’ve got a bearish “Shooting Star” and a “Three Methods”. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a support on nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for another bullish rally.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12479

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY trading tips from banks
2/14/2017

Deutsche Bank

Trump-Abe meeting has reduced concerns about politically triggered appreciation of the yen. Strategists expect US fiscal and monetary policy expectations to firm up support for USD/JPY in the near term. Fed Chair Yellen is due to testify before the Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Analysts prefer laying their hopes on the US fiscal policies rather than Ms. Yellen’s comments saying that she will unlikely give a clear signal on the next hike. They see firmer near-term downside support for USD/JPY within the 110-115 range, shifting to 115-120 range within the upcoming 3-6 months after US fiscal stimuli are announced. The bank’s analysts believe that if the full range of promised fiscal policies is introduced over the next 1-2 years the pair will rise to 120-125 levels albeit remaining very sensitive to political developments. Also, they continue to recommend building long positions using dips for purchases – strategically at near 110, and tactically at over 115 level.

Source: efxnews.com

NAB

The recent focus of the US administration on the protectionist policies supported the yen amid a substantial increase in demand for safe haven assets. USD/JPY slumped to 111.60 on risk-averse sentiments, then rebounded to 113-114 levels after Donald Trump rekindled investors’ hopes for his tax and fiscal expenditure plans. NAB’s analysts project a further uptick in the USD/JPY rally once market’s participants get more details on the fiscal policies of Trump’s administration.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12480

 

[riki143]

Key option levels for Wednesday, February 15th
2/15/2017

* Data about changes in the open interest will be available on Wednesday after 01:50 CT (Central Time) * UPDATED

EUR/USD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 138 628 ? + 521 262 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0590; 1.0620; 1.0660; 1.0689
Closest support levels 1.0579; 1.0559; 1.0523; 1.0496
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short EUR/USD below 1.0579, with target points at 1.0559 and 1.0523
Alternative scenario Moving above 1.0590 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 1.0620 and 1.0660

USD/JPY

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 100 ? + 161 ?
Closest resistance levels 114.53; 114.72; 114.97; 115.27
Closest support levels 114.00; 113.77; 113.40; 112.79
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/JPY from 114.14, with target points at 114.53 and 114.72
Alternative scenario Moving below 114.00 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 113.77 and 113.40

USD/CAD

Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Neutral Bullish
Changes in the open interest - 150 ? - 121 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3079; 1.3103; 1.3125; 1.3163
Closest support levels 1.3055; 1.3016; 1.2982; 1.2935
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario (High risk of reversal) Long USD/CAD above 1.3079, with the target points at 1.3103 and 1.3125
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3055 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3016 and 1.2982

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12483

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD: kiwi stumble upon support
2/15/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, after the target in the "Shark" inverted pattern was implemented, quotes went beyond the upward trading channel and faced with the diagonal support. It corresponds to the lower boundary of the long-term upward trading channel. A rebound will create prerequisites for the NZD growth towards 0.7245 level and further.A rollback will allow the "bears" to continue their campaign in the southward direction towards 0.7.

On the NZD/USD hourly chart, quotes came closer to the target on the previously formed shorts (SELL 0,725 SL 0,7305 TP 0,712). Traders should lock in profits as a successful test of the resistances at 0.7177 and 0.7215 can lead to the restoration of the uptrend.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12484

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls want to rise further
2/15/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, a breakout of the resistance at 112.5 and exit of quotes beyond the upward trading channel allowed to implement targets on the previously opened longs. The nearest support level is located near the 114.03 level.

On theUSD/JPY hourly chart, the target in the "Crab" inverted pattern has been fulfilled. As a result, the yen developed a consolidation in the range of 114.15-114.5 levels. A rebound from the lower boundary of the upward trading channel and breakout of the resistance will allow us to open long positions.

Recommendation: BUY 113,9 SL 113,35 TP 115,35, BUY 114,5 SL 113,95 TP1 115,35 TP2 118.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12485

 

[riki143]

Morning brief for February 15
2/15/2017

The door for a rate hike at the FOMC meeting in march swung open after Dr. Yellen in her semiannual testimony noted that waiting too long to remove accommodation would be unwise, saying that it would disrupt financial markets and push the US economy into recession. She also added that if employment rate and inflation continue to rise an increase in the benchmark would appropriate at the upcoming meeting. In regards to potential fiscal policies changes, Janet Yellen said that there is no need for the Fed to wait for them. The US dollar soared, and the yields on 10-year notes followed its lead.

Today Chair Yellen will deliver her testimony before the House Financial Services Committee. The wording will probably be the same, but the Q&A session might trigger some moves in the pairs with USD name. There will be plenty of US data on the roster today – US CPI, retail sales, industrial production and Empire Manufacturing index for January.

USD/JPY rallied to 114.16 overnight but failed to stay there for a long time dribbling back to 113.40 in the course of the Asian session. The euro edged to 1.0620 in the morning having pared yesterday’s losses.

GBP/USD was sent below 1.2440 mark on the strengthening greenback and disappointing UK inflation data (diverting the BoE from raising rates in the foreseeable future). The UK labor market report is the highlight in Europe. The UK unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 4.8% in December, and what is more important for the BoE, weekly earnings are also seen unchanged. If the data is in line with expectation, it could be a drag on the pound, since the absence of evident upticks in inflation/employment data doesn’t pose any challenge to the current BoE’s monetary policy stance.

AUD/USD gained some additional points having risen above 0.7685 on the past session. Aussie is keeping steadily at the top of leader board, still basking in the sunlight of the yesterday’s strong NAB business survey. Kiwi rose to 0.7175 against USD on the session.

USD/CAD dropped to 1.3030 on the session. At 15:30 MT time, wait for the Canadian manufacturing sales release. The stronger dollar and increase in the US stockpiles weighted on the crude oil prices overnight. Brent futures slumped to $55.60, while U.S. crude CLc1 was down to $52.80.

On November 30, 2016, a number of OPEC and non-OPEC pledged to cut production. The recent OPEC and IEA reports on the compliance with the agreement unmasked the cheaters. OPEC members achieved almost a full compliance with the deal, while non-OPEC producers are letting their supplies declines naturally having implemented only a half of their pledged cuts (this was unveiled by the Bloomberg’s analysts on Valentine’s day as if they wanted to prove that there is no true love in business).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12486

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Double Bottom" stopped bearish rally
2/15/2017

The price faced a support at 1.0551, so we’ve got a “V-Bottom”. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards a resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0607. If a pullback from this area happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline in the direction of the nearest support at 1.0522.

Bears found a support at 1.0566, so we’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern. In this case, bulls are likely going to reach a resistance at 1.0594 – 1.0607 shortly. However, if we see a pullback from these levels, the market will probably try to test a support at 1.0551 – 1.0535.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12488

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: consolidation going to move on
2/15/2017

The price is consolidating between the 89 Moving Average and the nearest resistance at 1.2548. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2548. If bull be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.2411 – 1.2386.

All Moving Averages have been broken, so the price is consolidating. In this case, we should keep an eye on the closest resistance at 1.2509 – 1.2538 as a possible intraday target. If a pullback from this area happens, bears are likely going to achieve a support at 1.2432 – 1.2411.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12489

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: spring continues to shrink
2/15/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2450; resistance – 1.2500, 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2450; SL — 1.2430; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but horizontal Senkou Span A and B; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12490

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: on main support
2/15/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0570; resistance – 1.0640, 1.0700.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0570; SL — 1.0550; TP1 — 1.0640; TP2 – 1.0700.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and falling lines; the prices are under the Cloud, but there is a strong support on 1.0570.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12491

 

[riki143]

Bitcoin is poised to become a real asset
2/15/2017

It seems that our whimsical adolescent bitcoin puts hair up acting more like a grown-up financial asset. Its wild swings, seen three years ago, are less evident now. It is becoming less volatile, although its contentious temper still makes itself felt from time to time. Last week’s spikes back up this assertion. The cryptocurrency slumped to 943.80 from 1078.25 on February 10 after the People’s Bank of China issued its hardest warning to the domestic bitcoin industry saying that platforms trading bitcoin risk being shut down if they violate regulations on money laundering, foreign-exchange management and other issues. Some top exchanges had to halt client withdrawals temporally in compliance with the central bank’s requirements. This led many traders to close their positions and sent BTC/USD to its low for the first time since January 12, 2017. Others keep an eye on the further developments in China where the bitcoin industry has spawned significantly in recent years (there is a strong demand in China for bitcoin because of the significant fall in value of the yuan).

For all the volatility, though, the digital currency is showing signs of becoming a serious asset. It became less volatile for numerous reasons. The trade volume of bitcoin has increased, and the circulation of cryptocurrency is broader than it used to be 3 years ago. Another reason of bitcoin’s relative stability is that nowadays investors are able to hedge their positions or even short the high-risk asset using futures contracts traded through Bitmex or Bitfinex, special marketplaces for lending bitcoin to people who want to sell it short. The popularity of bitcoin may increase even further especially if the Securities and Exchange Commission (SED) approve at least one of the existent bitcoin-focused exchange-traded funds. It would provide individual investors an opportunity to invest over the longer periods of time in bitcoins and eliminate the worries about thefts of digital currency from digital wallets.

The SED promised to issue its ruling on the Winklevoss Bitcoin Trust, operated by American rowers Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss (you must know them; they sued Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg for purportedly stealing their idea to create the social networking site) by March 11. If the trust is approved, bitcoin will surge significantly from the present levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12494

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Harami" pushed the price lower
2/15/2017

We’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern above the “Window”. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue moving up towards the nearest support level.

The lower “Window” acted as a resistance, so we’ve got a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Also, there’s a “Three Black Crows” pattern, so bears are likely going to test the closest support during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12495

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls going to test "Window"
2/15/2017

The 13 Moving Average is acting as a support, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. So, the price is likely going to test the upper “Window” in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives later on, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

The nearest strong “Window” has been broken, so the price is likely going to test the 13 Moving Average. However, bulls will probably try to reach the next upper “Window” during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12496

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: wave is about to end
2/15/2017

Wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag, so the price is declining in wave . The main intraday target is 6/8 MM Level, which could be a departure point for wave [ii].

As we can see on the one-hours chart, wave is about to end. We’ve got an extension in wave (iii) and a small correction in wave (iv). If a pullback from 4/8 MM Level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12498

 

[riki143]

AUD/JPY broke key resistance level 87.00
2/15/2017

AUD/JPY broke key resistance level 87.00
Next buy target – 89.00
AUD/JPY continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the key resistance level 87.00 (previous buy target, which has been steadily reversing the price from the middle of December, as can be seen from the daily AUD/JPY chart below). The breakout of this resistance level accelerated the active impulse waves 3 and (3) – both of which belong to the primary impulse wave ? from the end of December.

AUD/JPY is expected to rise to the next buy target at the next resistance level 89.00. Protective stop-loss can be placed below the aforementioned price level 87.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12501

 

[riki143]

EUR/AUD broke support area
2/15/2017

EUR/AUD broke support area
Next sell target - 1.3600
EUR/AUD continues to fall after the recent breakout of the support area lying between the support levels 1.4000 and 1.3900, both of which were set as the sell target in our earlier forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support area accelerated the active minor impulse wave 3 – which then broke the support trendline of the daily down channel from last September.

EUR/AUD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.3600 (forecast price calculated for the termination of the active impulse wave (iii)).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12502

 

[riki143]

Gold: bulls are trying to restore the trend
2/16/2017

On the daily chart of gold, bulls held the level of $1220. At the present moment, they are trying to restore the uptrend. To continue their rally in the direction of $1280 they will need to test the convergence area located at $1250-1257. The inability of buyers to consolidate around the February high will be a signal of their weakness.

On the hourly chart of gold, to retest support at $1218 can lead to the formation of expanding wedge pattern. As a result, there might be a correction in the direction of $1180. The nearest resistance levels are located near the marks of $1244 and $1255.

Recommendations:

SELL $1255 SL $1270 TP $1220,

SELL $1218 SL $1230 TP $1180.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12504

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are setting up a trap
2/16/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the target on the previously opened shorts has been fulfilled (SELL 1,0667 SL 1,0722 TP 1,0535). After that, the bulls gained control over the market. A rebound from the intermediate target 61.8% in the "Shark" pattern allows buyers to develop the correction in direction of 1.0635 and 1.0675 levels. But the technical outlook for the pair is still "bearish", so, there is the rationale of selling the euro on the growth of quotes.

On the EUR/USD hourly chart, the resistance levels are located near 1.065 and 1.071. These levels correspond to the 38.2% and 23.6% Fibonacci retracement levels from the last upward wave.

Recommendations:

SELL 1,065 SL 1,0705 TP 1,0445,

SELL 1,071 SL 1,0765 TP1 1,053 TP2 1,0445.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12505