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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

EUR/USD: bullish correction is coming
2/21/2017

2102eurusdh4.png


The last “Three Methods” pattern led to the current decline. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern so far, the market is likely going to test the nearest support, which could a departure point for a local bullish correction.

2102eurusdh1.png


The price has found a lodgement under the “Window”. So, bears are likely going to test the next support. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an intraday correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12577
 
USD/JPY: bulls going to continue pushing the price higher
2/21/2017

2102usdjpyH4.png


There’s an “Inverted Hammer”, which has been confirmed. Also, we’ve got a bullish “Three Methods”, so the price is likely going to continue rising until any bearish pattern arrives.

2102usdjpyH1.png


The lower “Window” acted as a support, so we’ve got a bullish “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance level during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12578
 
USD/JPY reversed from support zone
2/21/2017

USD/JPY reversed from support zone
Next buy target – 115.00

USD/JPY recently reversed up from the support zone located between the support level 112.00 (which stopped previous wave 2), former resistance trendline of the recently broken Falling Wedge chart pattern (acting as support now after it was broken) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the earlier sharp upward impulse from November.

The upward reversal from the aforementioned support zone started the active impulse wave 3. USD/JPY is expected to rise further to the next buy target at the resistance level 115.00 (which reversed the earlier impulse wave (i) with the daily Evening Star earlier this month).

USDJPY_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-21_1646_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12579
 
EUR/USD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
2/21/2017

EUR/USD falling inside minor impulse wave (iii)
Next sell target - 1.0450

EUR/USD continues to fall inside the active minor impulse wave (iii) – which started earlier from the resistance level 1.0670 (which reversed the price with the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover earlier this month). The active impulse wave (iii) belongs to wave (iv) from the start of February.

EUR/USD is currently approaching the support level 1.0520 (which reversed the earlier minor impulse wave i). If the pair breaks below this support level - EUR/USD can then be expected to fall further to the next sell target at the next powerful level 1.0450 (which reversed the pair with the daily Hammer in January).

EURUSD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-21_1645_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12580
 
EUR/USD: bears may continue moving southwards
2/22/2017

On the EUR/USD daily chart, the downward trading channel was formed. A breakout of the support at 1.0525 will lead to the continuation of the "bearish" trend towards the target 88.6% in the "Shark" pattern (1.038). Nearest resistance levels should be sought near 1,057 and 1,064 marks.

Screenshot_2017_02_22_07_54_44.png


On the EUR/USD hourly chart, sellers want to activate the AB = CD pattern. To continue their southward movement towards the targets of the AB=CD pattern (target 200% (1.037), they will have to test the support at 1.0525.

Screenshot_2017_02_22_07_55_01.png


Recommendation: keep the short formed earlier (SELL 1,065 SL 1,0705 TP 1,0445), SELL 1,0525 SL 1,068 TP 1,038).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12585
 
Gold stumbled across the ledge
2/22/2017

On the daily chart of gold, there is a formation of the "Spike and ledge" pattern on the base of 1-2-3.A breakout of the upper boundary of the consolidation range of $1220-1244 per ounce will increase the risk of continuation of the rally in the direction of the upper boundary of the descending trading channel. In contrast, a successful test of the support will create prerequisites for the implementation pattern of the "Shark" pattern.

Screenshot_2017_02_22_07_55_16.png


On the hourly chart of gold, there is a continuation of the expanding wedge pattern. Return of quotes to the 23.6% level formed from the waves 4-5 will be a signal for the opening of short positions. In contrast, the breakout of the resistance at $1242 per ounce (88.6% from the waves 4-5) can lead to the recovery of the uptrend.

Screenshot_2017_02_22_07_55_31.png


Recommendations: SELL $1230 SL $1240 TP $1290, BUY $1242 SL $1232 TP $1272.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12586
 
Morning brief for February 22
2/22/2017

EUR/USD dropped to 1.0520 overnight as the upbeat Euro PMI lost its luster amid investors’ jitters over upcoming French Presidential elections. Market participants now ascribe anti-EU Marin Le Pen a 34.2% chance of winning, while the survey by Elabe for L’Express magazine showed that Le Pen’s number 1 counterpart had shed 5 points to 18.5 and Fillon had gained additional 3 points in the presidential race. The European manufacturing data was very strong; the PMI of major Eurozone economies surged to its highest level since 2011 at 56. The FOMC meeting minutes will be the market focus in the American session. The document might be pored over for hints on the potential monetary policy changes at the upcoming meetings.

USD/JPY slumped to 113.32 overnight after climbing to a 5-day high of 113.80 overnight. The Fed’s President of Cleaveland Loretta Mester was a spoiler as she said that no one on Fed is thinking of precipitately raising rates.

Aussie enjoyed significant upsurge overnight due to climbing iron ore and steel prices. AUD/USD almost reached 0.7700. Then, the Aussie started losing its strength after the RBA Governor Philip Lowe highlighted some of the challenges Australian will have to deal with in the future.

USD/CAD slipped some points in the Asian session having slid to 1.3130. The pair failed to consolidate at 1.3145 level (near 200-day MA) and to regain its bullish momentum. There will be Canadian retail sales data later today at 15:30 on which traders should focus on. Oil price extended their gains in the Asian session having risen to $56.90 (Brent oil futures) after OPEC expressed its intention to achieve full compliance with supply cuts and Russia said that will abide by the cuts.

GBP/USD rose above 1.2500 having tested the resistance located near 100-H4 MA. A bullish fractal was formed on the H4 chart promising some further gains for the pound in the short-term. Upbeat UK GDP data may assist the sterling in its struggling to rise higher. Betting markets expect growth of 0.6% q/q and 2/2% y/y.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12587
 
EUR/USD: euro going to main support
2/22/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.0510; resistance – 1.0600.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.0510; SL — 1.0490; TP1 — 1.0670; TP2 – 1.0600.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen and the falling lines; the prices are near the main support.

01-eurusdh4(96).png


More:
[URLhttps://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12588]https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12588[/URL]
 
USD/JPY: under Cloud’s resistance
2/22/2017

Technical levels: support – 112.70, 112.20; resistance – 113.60.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 113.40; SL — 113.60; TP1 — 112.70; TP2 — 112.20.

Reason: expanding bearish Ichimoku Cloud; a new irregular golden cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud in negative area.

04-usdjpyh4(78).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12589
 
EUR/USD: bearish "Pennant"
2/22/2017

22-2-2017-EUR-H4.png


Bears faced a support at 1.0521, so the price is consolidating. Therefore, the next target is a support at 1.0498 – 1.0478. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have an upward correction.

22-2-2017-EUR-H1.png


We’ve got a “Pennant”, so bears are likely going to reach the nearest support at 1.0506 – 1.0498 during the day. However, if a pullback from these levels happens, bulls will probably try to test a resistance at 1.0543 – 1.0552.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12591
 
GBP/USD: bears going to test support
2/22/2017

22-2-2017-GBP-H4.png


There’s a local “V-Bottom”, so we’ve got a new local high. Considering a resistance at 1.2509, the market is likely going to get a support on the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an option to have another bullish price movement towards a resistance at 1.2548 – 1.2581.

22-2-2017-GBP-H1.png


All Moving Averages have been broken, so bulls faced a resistance at 1.2509, which led to the current consolidation. Therefore, bears are likely going to test a support at 1.2482 – 1.2465 during the day. If a pullback from this area happens, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.2523 – 1.2548 as a possible bullish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12592
 
Key option levels for Wednesday, February 22nd
2/22/2017

EUR/USD

EURUSD(131).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 58 554 ? + 10 386 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.0534; 1.0561; 1.0592; 1.0638; 1.0672
Closest support levels 1.0495(Critical); 1.0464; 1.0427; 1.0386
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long EUR/USD above 1.0534, with target points at 1.0561 and 1.0592
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.0495 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.0464 and 1.0427
USD/JPY

USDJPY(98).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bearish Neutral
Changes in the open interest + 216 ? + 445 ?
Closest resistance levels 113.52; 113.73/86; 114.08; 114.36
Closest support levels 113.24; 113.06; 112.79; 112.45
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Short USD/JPY below 113.24, with target points at 113.06 and 112.79
Alternative scenario Moving above 113.52 can be considered as a signal to Buy the pair, with target at 113.73/86 and 114.08
USD/CAD

USDCAD(112).png


Main trend Short-term period Medium-term period
Bullish Bullish
Changes in the open interest + 84 ? - 253 ?
Closest resistance levels 1.3156; 1.3179; 1.3219; 1.3275
Closest support levels 1.3125; 1.3108; 1.3079; 1.3031
Trading recommendations
Baseline scenario Long USD/CAD above 1.3156, with the target points at 1.3179 and 1.3219
Alternative scenario Moving below 1.3125 can be considered as a signal to Sell the pair, with target at 1.3108 and 1.3079

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12593
 
EUR/USD forecasts from banks
2/22/2017

Barclays: political risk are market triggers, indeed, for the present time, but insufficient for throwing the euro off its stride.

Analysts expect EUR/USD to remain range-bound towards the end of the week. They note the economic data calendar doesn’t exhibit any evident catalyst for the present time. The European political calendar will be a “chef de pupitre” this week. Strategists bet on the further EUR depreciation, but according to them, it will be restrained, not truly expansive, as option-market pricing of French presidential election risks is a bit excessive.

They assume that despite a relative shift in the polls from François Fillon to Emmanuel Macron and rumor about a possible alliance of the left between Beno?t Hamon and Jean-Luc Mélenchon, Macron And François Fillon, in the end, will be likely winners in the second round by a wide margin over anti-European Marine Le Pen.

TD analysts stay short for next two months with a target to retest the level of 1.0340

TD analysts note that the euro stopped responding to economic data releases (yesterday’s irresponsiveness of the euro to the upbeat French and German manufacturing figures proves this statement) as market participants are predominantly preoccupied with the looming presidential elections in France. Marin Le Pen continues to inch higher in the polls making investors uneasy for a while. The recent news of the planning political alliance on the left clouds the outlook for the election. The rub here is that Marine Le Pen – group left candidates in the second round of the election could reduce turnout, helping Marine to win (this scenario be bearish for EUR/USD).

Analysts prefer to tactically remain short EUR against its major counterparts over the next two months and look for a retest of the recent lows near 1.0340.

UOB: technical signal

A move below 1.0520 was a signal of the EUR weakness. UOB analysts expect the prices to move lower towards the mid-January low of 1.0450/55, but any decline will be slow and grinding. Overall, only a move above 1.0620 would indicate that the euro managed to shrug off the persistent downward pressure.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12594
 
EUR/USD: bulls going to deliver a correction
2/22/2017

2202eurusdH4.png


We’ve got a bearish “Three Methods”, which led to the current decline. Also, there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest support.

2202eurusdH1.png


There’re an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Hammer”, but both patterns haven’t been confirmed yet. In this case, bears are likely going to continue pushing the price even lower during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12595
 
USD/JPY: lower "Window" going to act as a support
2/22/2017

2202usdjpyH4.png


There’s a “Hanging Man”, which has been confirmed enough. So, the pair is likely going to test the lower “Window”, which could be a departure point for an upward correction.

2202usdjpyH1.png


The last “Shooting Star” led to the current decline. Considering that there isn’t any reversal pattern, the market is likely going to continue falling down in the short term. However, if a pullback from the lower “Window” happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a bullish correction.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12596
 
EUR/USD: "Window" going to act as a resistance
2/23/2017

2302eurusdH4-1.png


We’ve got a bullish “Hammer”, which has been confirmed enough. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the 21 Moving Average. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

2302eurusdH1-1.png


The price reached a resistance, so there’s a bearish “Harami”. So, bears are likely going to test the nearest support. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12605
 
EUR/USD: bulls going to test the "Window"
2/24/2017

2402eurusdH4.png


There’s a possible bullish “Three Methods”, but the 21 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. Therefore, bulls are likely going to test the 55 Moving Average in the short term. If any bearish pattern arrives afterwards, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline.

2402eurusdH1.png


We’ve got a bearish “Harami”, so the price reached the nearest support. However, bears are likely going to move on, so the support could be tested once again. If a pullback from this level happens, bulls will probably try to deliver a new local high.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12621
 
USD/JPY: bullish "Tweezers"
2/24/2017

2402usdjpyD.png


The last “Tweezers” pattern has been confirmed, so the price came back to the nearest “Window”. Also, the 55 Moving Average is acting as a support. In this case, if a pullback from this line happens, bulls will be free to deliver a new upward price movement.

2402usdjpyH4.png


The lower “Window” is acting as a support. If any bullish pattern arrives later on, the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance area.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12622
 
AUD/USD: Aussie came across the wedge
2/24/2017

On the AUD/USD daily chart, bulls made another attempt to move towards the target 113% in the Shark inverted pattern. If the quotes fail to consolidate above the 0.7705 level, it will tell us about the weakness of buyers and increase the risk of rollback.

Screenshot_2017_02_24_08_35_43.png


On the AUD/USD hourly chart, two expanding wedge patterns can be formed at once. But, first, the bears have to implement a junior model painted in red on the chart.

Screenshot_2017_02_24_08_36_05.png


Recommendations:

SELL 0,77 SL 0,7755 TP 0,76, SELL 0,7665 SL 0,772 TP 0,7535,

BUY 0,772 SL 0,7665 TP 0,785.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12623
 
Morning brief for February 24
2/24/2017

Markets shifted their focus from the European continent to the US economy overnight. The Wall Street Journal published its interview with newly confirmed US Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin. He sounded quite measured and careful. The Secretary passed up the opportunity of accusing China of its currency manipulation, revealed Treasury Department’s intentions to lift economic growth, underlined that he and his colleagues are looking seriously at the Administration’s fiscal plan that includes border adjustment tax (it suggests taxing imports and subsidizing exports through a cash flow/VAT-style tax). This tax is widely expected to be a tailwind for the US dollar. Also, we got the Fed President Lockhart comments on the future path of the Fed’s rate hike. He elucidated the meaning of Fed’s “fairly soon” saying that it means that hike can appear in next 3 meeting. Well, it certainly conflicts with the views of the bulls; it is actually not soon enough. Maybe, we should consider incanting the Fed’s “we expect rate hikes fairly soon” and then, it finally raises its rates? Well, let’s give it a try.

EUR/USD edged up to 1.0580 in the course of the past sessions mainly because of the falling yields on the US Treasury notes,

USD/JPY spiked to 112.95 in the Tokyo morning but then failed to consolidate its position in that area having slid to 112.70. The economic calendar for this currency pair is very light today. We don’t expect significant swings/troughs from prices.

AUD/USD rose to 0.7720 in the Asian session. Earlier this morning, the RBA Governor Philip Lowe reiterated messages on monetary policy that further rate cuts are ruled out the bank had been sending before, but for the present time, they are consistent with country’s economic growth. Also, he didn’t dare to say that Aussie is overvalued. If commodity prices continue their rally, the Governor would expect a further appreciation of AUD.

Kiwi spiked to 0.7245 (61.8% Fibo retracement level from September 7 high) overnight but failed to advance further. In the Asian session, it slipped some points against its US counterpart. There won’t be any surprising news for the pair later today, enjoy sideways movement.

USD/CAD tumbled to 1.3080 due to a substantial upsurge in the oil prices. Brent oil futures rose to $56.60 thanks to high compliance among the OPEC members with the output cut agreement signed in November 2016. Today’s focus will on Canada’s consumer price report to be released at 15:30 MT time (a drop in the price component of IVEY PMI hints at a bit disappointing data).

GBP/USD was the major gainer overnight. The British pound jumped to 1.2560 mainly on the greenback’s weakness. The further upsurge will be complicated. The sterling will have to clear the resistance at 1.2610 to reassure the market participants in its strength. The only data release from the UK was the CBI retail sales that posted a quite upbringing headline. Another market trigger – the Scottish government discussing another Scottish independence referendum that might take place next year, after actual Brexit. Now, the politicians believe that they have all chance to win it.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12625
 
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