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Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

EUR/USD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

EUR/USD dipped as low as to 1.0520.

Economic data released in the euro area were mostly negative. GBP growth slowed down from 0.5% in Q3 to 0.4% in Q4. The region’s industrial production contracted more than expected in December, and ZEW economic sentiment missed the forecast. The minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) latest monetary policy meeting showed that the regulator isn’t planning to dial back on monetary stimulus.

In addition, market players keep following developments in France. The positions of the conservative candidate Francois Fillon keep worsening as the investigation into the fake work scandal continues. Although Marine Le Pen, who supports Frexit, is not likely to win the overall elections, political factors will still limit the euro’s upside.

Moreover, the pair is certainly very sensitive to the things happening in America. USD dollar events represent the pair’s primary drivers. As for the European economic calendar, there will be a release of flash manufacturing & services PMIs on Tuesday. German Ifo business climate, as well the region’s final CPI are due on Wednesday. The release of German consumer climate is scheduled on Thursday.

The pair formed a hammer and managed to close above the 50-day MA above 1.0600. The euro still has met resistance at 1.0680 (weekly pivot, Jan. 12 high). Another significant resistance is located around 1.0715 (Jan. 17 high) and 1.0730 (100-day MA) ahead of 1.0775. All in all, support around 1.0500 (late November lows) is very strong. It’s reasonable to expect longer consolidating above this area.

EURUSDH4(49).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12534
 
GBP/USD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

In line with our expectations GBP/USD spent the week consolidating between 1.2380 and 1.2550.

The topic of Brexit is temporarily on the sidelines, ready to resurface later this month. Economic data released in the UK mostly disappointed. CPI growth was a bit lower than expected, while the growth pace of average earnings declined. British retail sales also contracted in January.

The most important releases of the upcoming days include public sector net borrowing on Tuesday and second estimate GDP and prelim business investment on Wednesday.

The bears made another assault on the 100- and 50-day MAs just above 1.2400, but failed to keep the pair below these lines. On H4 the 200-period MA once again acted as good support (currently at 1.2400). The moving averages here are horizontal. Note though that the pair’s range is getting narrower, that means that the breakout of the current ranges is coming closer. Looking at the series of lower highs we assume that the pound is more vulnerable to the downside than to the upside. Below 1.2400 we’ll target 1.2345 and 1.2260.

GBPUSDDaily(34).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12535
 
Gold: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

Gold futures soared to $1242.80 per ounce in the course of the past week having posted their seventh weekly gain in eight weeks. Much of this rally has been based on the looming elections in Europe, political uncertainty in the US over tax cuts and the UK separation with the EU. The US stocks unprecedently keep pace with the yellow metal futures having spiked to their highest levels in three years. Some analysts send alerts to the investors saying that the safe-haven asset might be vulnerable as the US equities remain near their record high. If the US dollar pares its recent losses helped by promised fiscal stimuli and hawkish comments from the Fed’s officials, the precious metal will be sent to the negative area.

Next week beware of potential threat coming from the FOMC meeting minutes that should be released on Wednesday. If the minutes show the Fed’s readiness for rate hikes, gold futures are poised to slide downwards. The rest of the week shouldn’t bring lots of disturbances to the chart.

In the meantime, the technical picture for the XAU/USD is bullish. Gold futures nudged above the important resistance located at $1242.20 (near 200MA on the weekly timeframe). A move above the $1255.60 resistance level (61.8% Fibo retracement level from the high seen after Trump’s victory) can lead to the continuation of the rally towards the next hurdle at $1262.70 (200-day MA). In the case of the reversal, the prices may slide towards the supports at $1230.25 (50% Fibo level + the upper boundary of the Ichimoku cloud on the daily timeframe), $ 1205.05 (38.2% Fibo retracement level).

XAUUSDDaily(7).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12536
 
EUR/USD: upper "Window" going to act as a resistance
2/17/2017

1702eurusdH4.png


There’s a “Tower” pattern, which hasn’t been confirmed yet. So, the market is likely going to test the nearest support in the short term. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have a local upward price movement.

1702eurusdH1.png


We’ve got a “Hanging Man” and a “Shooting Star”, which both have been confirmed. Therefore, bears are likely going to achieve the closest support level during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12539
 
USD/JPY: bulls going to deliver a correction
2/17/2017

1702usdjpyH4(1).png


The last “Tweezers” and “Engulfing” pushed the market lower. So, the price is likely going to continue falling down towards the nearest “Window”, which could be a departure point for a local bullish rally.

1702usdjpyH1(1).png


We’ve got a “Hammer”, but this pattern hasn’t been confirmed yet. In this case, there’s an opportunity to have a local bullish correction towards the closest resistance. If a pullback from this level happens, bears will probably try to deliver a new low.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12540
 
EUR/USD: zigzag in wave [ii]
2/17/2017

Image20170217164019001.png


There’s a bearish impulse in wave . Previously, wave 2 has been formed like a zigzag. So, we could have wave [ii] soon. The main intraday target is 8/8 MM Level.

Image20170217164019002.png


We’ve got a possible bullish impulse in wave (a), so the price is declining in wave (b). If we see a pullback from 6/8 MM Level, there’ll be an opportunity to have wave (c) of [ii].

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12541
 
EUR/AUD reversed from long-term support level 1.3730
2/17/2017

EUR/AUD reversed from long-term support level 1.3730
Next buy target – 1.4000
EUR/AUD recently reversed up sharply from the powerful long-term support level 1.3730 (which also previously reversed the price multiple times at the start of 2015, as can be seen below). The support zone near the support level 1.3730 was strengthened by the lower weekly Bollinger Band. If the pair closes this week near the current levels it will form the weekly Japanese candlestick reversal pattern Hammer.

Given the oversold reading on the weekly Stochastic indicator - EUR/AUD is likely to correct up further to the next buy target at the round resistance level 1.4000.

EURAUD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-17_1634_PM_(1_week).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12542
 
AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
2/17/2017

AUD/CAD reversed from resistance zone
Next sell target - 1.0000
AUD/CAD recently reversed down from the strong resistance zone located between the key resistance level 1.0080 (which reversed earlier waves (B), (1) and 1), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.85 Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of November. The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the previous minor impulse wave 3, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from January.

AUD/CAD is expected to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 1.0000 (which reversed the previous minor correction 2).

AUDCAD_-_Primary_Analysis_-_Feb-17_1636_PM_(1_day).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12543
 
USD/CAD: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

The greenback was trading almost unchanged against its Canadian counterpart at the end of the past week, with USD/CAD consolidating in the range of 1.3005 – 1.3120. Monday’s Trump-Trudeau joint press conference was reassuring for the Canadian dollar, as the US President advocated the strengthening of the US-Canada trade ties. On Valentine’s day, the greenback was Yellen-kissed as the Fed’s Chair hinted at a rate hike at the upcoming FOMC meeting. Towards the end of the week, the US dollar ran out of steam having ceded ground to loonie. The underlying fundamentals, however, still favor a higher USD/CAD with March FOMC hike odds marching higher and the BoC’s rate increases hardly seen on the horizon.

This week, we would recommend you to focus on the Canadian retail sales and CPI data as the CAD is becoming more and more decoupled from crude oil dynamics and yield differentials between the US and Canadian money markets.

The technical picture for the USD/CAD is neutral. The quotes are ranging in the narrow band of 1.2995 – 1.3180 levels (upper and lower Bollinger bands on H4 timeframe). Relying on the USD/CAD fundamentals, we would bet on the USD appreciation towards the nearest resistance level at 1.3140 (200-day MA), 1.3178 and 1.3230 (50-day MA). On the downside, a few supports can be found at 1.3040 and 1.2995 levels, and in a longer-term at 1.2895.

USDCADDaily(8).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12531
 
USD/JPY: outlook for February 20-24
2/17/2017

USD/JPY managed to test resistance close to 115.00 as Trump didn’t criticize currency Japan’s policy at the latest meeting with Shinzo Abe, but then got rejected lower on the general setback in demand for the greenback.

The pair formed a shooting star candle against the 50-day MA. The force of this resistance has thus increased. However, the US dollar will have support around 112.50 (here was a buying interest in January). As long as the pair stays above this point, we’ll be looking for the opportunities for long positions. Below 112.50 focus on support at 111.40 and then 109.90.

Japan’s GDP growth slowed down from 0.3% in Q3 to 0.2% in Q4, although industrial production increased more than expected in December. Japan will release trade balance figures on Monday and flash manufacturing PMI on Tuesday. In addition, don’t forget to watch US data and FOMC meeting minutes. Finally, remember that USD/JPY is sensitive to changes in global risk sentiment. Demand for the safe havens may lead to further decline in USD longs and buying of JPY.

USDJPYDaily(32).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12538
 
USD/JPY: bulls are drawing second shoulder
2/21/2017

On the USD/JPY daily chart, "Head and shoulders" inverted pattern is almost formed. If the "bulls" manage to push quotes above the neckline and break the resistance at 114.6, it may lead to the restoration of the uptrend and implementation of the target 88.6% in the "Shark" inverted pattern.It is located near the 118 level.

Screenshot_2017_02_21_08_24_39.png


On the USD/JPY hourly chart, after three consecutive attempts bears failed to return to the boundaries of the descending trading channel. It shows the weakness of sellers and creates the prerequisites for the restoration of "bullish" trend.

Screenshot_2017_02_21_08_23_33.png


Recommendations:

BUY 113,2 SL 112,65 TP1 115,1 TP2 117,1,

BUY 114,3 SL 113,75 TP1 115,9 TP2 117,1.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12564
 
[]NZD/USD: kiwi waived the white flag[/B]
2/21/2017

On the NZD/USD daily chart, another attempt of "bull" to consolidate above the lower limit of the previous long-term upward trading channel is almost failed. A breakout of the support at 0.7135 can lead to the continuation of the downward movement towards 0.7 or lower. To recoup earlier losses the New Zealand dollar should return tp resistance at 0.7235, and test it successfully

Screenshot_2017_02_21_08_23_53.png


On the NZD/USD hourly chart, a support successful test of the support at 0.7135 will activate the AB = CD pattern with Target at 0.702. It is located near the lower boundary of the descending trading channel.

Screenshot_2017_02_21_08_24_10.png


Recommendation: SELL 0,7135 SL 0,719 TP 0,702.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12565
 
Morning brief for February 21
2/21/2017

With the US celebrating the President’s day, Europe was in focus in Monday’s session. This means that political news were the main market triggers. OpinionWay poll indicates that anti-establishment candidate Marin Le Pen wins in the first round of election by a wider margin than it used to be several weeks ago. The election concerns exert a downward pressure on the euro and European bonds. Greek bonds made headlines, however, after Eurozone finance ministers agreed to resume negotiations with Athens on the reforms needed to bailout Greece.

The euro edged up to 1.0630 overnight but failed to consolidate in this area having fallen to 1.0580 in the Asian session. Today’s focus will be on the Manufacturing PMI of the main Eurozone economies that will be released at 10:00-11:00 am MT time.

USD/JPY climbed to 113.70 not paying much heed to the upbeat Japan’s manufacturing PMI. Technically, the pair has all chances to rally further, towards the next physical hurdles located at 114.50 (23.6% Fibo retracement level from the November 9 low) and at 114.95 (near 50-day MA).

Cable popped up to around 1.3140 having broken the resistance at 1.3145 (200-day MA). USD/CAD may continue its rally towards 1.3180 being supported by the weakening oil prices. The latter ones declined as the market took into account rising US drilling and US stockpile built.

NZD/USD was a loser from 0.7185 to 0.7150. The pair may slide lower, if we get a miss on the New Zealand GDT Price Index, and if the Fed Harker, the most hawkish voter on the FOMC, mentions the probability of three hikes this year. Kiwi may gain some strength before Mr. Harker’s speech, if the Fed Kashkari, a well-known dove, set a course for holding rates steady in March.

Aussie slipped some point having fallen to 0.7670 in the course of the Asian session. It may extend its losses towards the support at 0.7655 (the upper border of Ichimoku cloud on the H4 timeframe) as the greenback continues accumulating speed. In the Tokyo morning, we got the RBA monetary policy minutes showing that the board members seem positive on near-term prospects for global economy and resilience of the Chinese growth. The RBA’s senior officials also noted that an appreciating AUD supported by the surging commodity prices complicates the country’s economic transition. In general, the board members judged that the present interest rates are consistent with Australian economic growth and the bank’s inflation target.

GBP/USD edged back towards 1.2450 on the session. It continues moving sideways in the narrow band of 1.2410 – 1.2480 levels and waiting for the formal Brexit to start. Today’s focus will be on the UK Inflation Report hearings. Relatively stable medium-term inflation expectations suggest that price expectations are still firmly anchored. This will allow the BoE to maintain its present monetary policy stance and not to raise rates in the near term.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12566
 
GBP/USD: pound can’t find a way
2/21/2017

Technical levels: support – 1.2420, 1.2350; resistance – 1.2480/90, 1.2560.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.2460; SL — 1.2440; TP1 — 1.2560; TP2 — 1.2590.

2. Sell — 1.2440; SL — 1.2460; TP1 — 1.2350; TP2 — 1.2310.

Reason: irregular bearish Ichimoku Cloud, falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are under the Cloud.

02-gbpusdh4(73).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12567
 
AUD/USD: aussie returned to the Cloud again
2/21/2017

Technical levels: support – 0.7660/70; resistance – 0.7720.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7680; SL — 0.7650; TP1 — 0.7780; TP2 — 0.7840.

2. Sell — 0.7640; SL — 0.7660; TP1 — 0.7600; TP2 — 0.7560.

Reason: bullish Ichimoku Cloud, but falling Senkou Span A; a new dead cross of Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen; the prices are on the support of the Cloud.

03-audusdh4(81).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12568
 
EUR/USD: bears ready to move on
2/21/2017

21-2-2017-EUR-H4.png


The price faced a support at 1.0578, so the market is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.0619 in the short term. However, if a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be an opportunity to have another decline towards a support at 1.0552 – 1.0506.

21-2-2017-EUR-H1.png


We’ve got a local “V-Bottom”, which pushed the price a little bit higher. Therefore, bulls are likely going to achieve the closest resistance at 1.0607 – 1.0619. At the same time, if we see a pullback from this area, bears will probably try to test a support at 1.0560 – 1.0552 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12569
 
GBP/USD: support waiting for bears
2/21/2017

21-2-2017-GBP-H4.png


The price is still consolidating along the Moving Averages. In this case, the pair is likely going to test the nearest resistance at 1.2509 in the short term. Meanwhile, there’s also an opportunity to have a decline towards a support at 1.2411 – 1.2386 later on.

21-2-2017-GBP-H1.png


There’s a consolidation, which is taking place under the local downtrend. So, bulls are likely going to test a resistance at 1.2486 – 1.2509 during the day. Considering a possible pullback from these levels, we should keep an eye on the next support at 1.2432 – 1.2386 as a possible intraday target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12570
 
EUR/USD: wave (c) of [ii] is about to start
2/21/2017

Image20170221120518001.png


There’s a bearish impulse in wave . Also, we’ve got wave [ii], which is likely going to be continued, so we could have a new local high soon. However, bears will probably try to deliver wave [iii] afterwards.

Image20170221120518002.png


As we can see on the one-hour chart, a zigzag in wave (b) is about to end. Therefore, if a pullback from 5/8 MM Level happens, the market is likely going to form wave (c) of [ii]. The main intraday target is 7/8 MM Level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12572
 
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: brainy trader
2/21/2017

AAEAAQAAAAAAAAaAAAAAJDkxMDEyYzkxLWMxZmEtNDA0Zi1iYjA1LTUwNzhkNWU5N2FlNg.jpg


In this article, we won’t be telling you about slumdog millionaires, whiz kids, smooth/sharp operators, market speculators or luckies. Instead, we’ve decided to inspire you with a life story of one of the keenest minds of our time. We are glad to present you – Nassim Nicholas Taleb – a man of impressive erudition and impeccable logic, widely known essayist, polyglot, distinguished professor of risk engineering and, last but not least, successful trader.

The list of accomplishments of this honored man can be continued endlessly, but we are well aware of the editorial limits. So, we promise to be brief to the extent it is possible.

First impression

nassim-taleb.png


Psychologists believe that people need just one-tenth of a second to form a mental image of the person they encounter/see for the very first time. Nassim Taleb creates the impression of a very witty and intelligent person, a bit strict and reserved in his all-time favorite jackets and Steve Jobs turtleneck, but still well disposed to people around him. Some call him a bit grumpy, sarcastic, gloomy and utterly judgmental. But we believe that all this goes from the pages of his books, but not from Taleb’s public engagements. Or, probably, his image was forged by vengeful journalists.

Early life and family background

Nassim Taleb was born and brought up in Lebanon. His parents were affluent and influential Greek Orthodox believers with French citizenship. His grandfather and great-grandfather were deputy prime ministers, and his great-great-great-great grandfather was the governor of Ottoman Mount Lebanon. Taleb’s prominent family has known a reduction of its influence and wealth in the course of the Lebanese Civil War started in 1975. During the war, little Nassim had to study in the basement of his family’s home. Then, he received his bachelor and master of science degree from the University of Paris.

In addition, he holds an MBA from the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania, and a PhD in Management Science from the University of Paris (Dauphine). His overwhelming thirst for knowledge has no limits. He has a good command of various languages: a literary fluency in English, French, and classical Arabic; a conversational fluency in Italian and Spanish; can read Greek, Latin, Aramaic, and ancient Hebrew, the Canaanite script.

Career accomplishments

Nassim Taleb worked as a practitioner of mathematical finance, a hedge fund manager, a derivative trader. Currently, he dedicates his time to writing and works as a top advisor at Universa Investments. He prefers calling himself an epistemologist of randomness, a thinker, rather than a businessman or successful trader. He said that he used trading for the attainment of the independence and freedom from authorities, rather than for some selfish motives.

Nassim Taleb has amasses a wealth of experience trading in the richest financial establishments of the world. He was especially successful after the financial crash of 1987, during the Nasdaq dive in 2000 and the global financial crisis of the second millennium. A great many of these events has been predicted by Taleb well prior to their occurrence. Being a statistician, he managed to identify existent mismatches between statistical distributions used in finance and reality. According to him, the more he studies statistics, the more he becomes convinced that the global financial system is a keg of dynamite that can blow anytime.

nicholas_taleb.png


Writing career

His international fame Nassim Taleb obtained due to his writings. He is the author of the 4-volume INCERTO a philosophical and practical essay on uncertainty, probability, human error, full of personal autobiographical stories, historical, philosophical and academic discussions, parables (Antifragile, The Black Swan, Fooled by Randomness, and The Bed of Procrustes). We will probably cover Taleb’s writing in much more detail in our “Book reviews” section. Meanwhile, we hope that we managed to offer you a flash of inspiration having written about such prominent person as Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12573
 
USD/JPY: trade signal from Danske Bank
2/21/2017

Danske Bank analysts expect the yen to depreciate on the rising bond yields and surging oil prices. As soon as the US tax policies are announced the US dollar will move higher. A short yen positioning is very stretched, it will unfold gradually. The DB’s strategists target USD/JPY at 116 in one month and 118 in 3 months. In the longer term, the cross is expected to stabilize at 118 (in 6 months), because the massive portfolio outflows out of Japan will not allow the yen to depreciate further.

z86.PNG


Source: eFXnews™

Technical confirmation

On the USD/JPY daily chart, there is an example of the Elliott wave principle in motion. At the present time, the prices are trading at the beginning of the 5th after corrective movement towards 111.50 (near the 38.2 Fibo retracement level from June 24 low). We anticipate a further upsurge towards 114.05 (23.6 Fibo retracement level), 114.95 (50-day MA) levels.

USDJPYDaily(33).png


More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/12575
 
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