Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.11.2015



The Organisation for Co-operation and Development in its latest update for Global GDP has cut its forecast from 3.0% to 2.9%.

The OECD has also raised fears that the slowdown in growth is now pushing the international economy close to levels which would signal a global recession.

China was highlighted as a main reason behind the drop off in GDP as it sighted that reduction in demand for imported commodities was affecting neighbouring Asian nations.

However, the OECD sounded more optimistic for 2016 and 2017 as it predicted a pickup in growth.

The OECD identified that stimulus measures were taken by China and other countries as the main reason why it predicted that there would be a bounce next year.

The OECD decided to add its say on the debate with respect to United States interest rates and called upon the Federal Reserve to go ahead with its expected increase in the Fed Funds rate this coming December.

A move to increase the US benchmark interest rate by 25 bp would be the first step in nominalizing the interest rate environment.

A December move by the FOMC would come at a time when there are real signs that the United States economic recovery is taking off.

These signs of positive growth were highlighted last Friday when the US Department of Labor Statistics published extremely strong Jobs Report with both the Non-Farm Payrolls and Average Hourly Earnings releases beating estimates by a wide margin.






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0850

Target 2: 1.0640

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.0900





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5220

Target 2: 1.5005

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0108

Daily control level: 1.5400



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 124.00

Target 2: 122.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.88

Daily control level: 120.60





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0150

Target 2: 0.9950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0083

Daily control level: 0.9880




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3390

Target 2: 1.3180

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.3140




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7115

Target 2: 0.6970

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 0.7170




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1106.00

Target 2: 1077.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.28

Daily control level: 1111.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.00

Target 2: 43.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 45.95







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.11.2015



China has announced that it wants to enhance the international profile of its currency the Yuan. It plans to do this by upgrading the status of its currency by having the Chinese Yuan included into the basket of currencies that make up the International Monetary Fund, Foreign Exchange Reserve Assets.

The IMF Reserve Assets, also known as the Special Drawing Rights was created in 1969 and initially included the US Dollar, British Pound, French Franc, German Deutschmark and Japanese Yen. However with the launch of the single European currency, both the German and French participations were replaced by the Euro.

The SDR is not a currency, however, it is an important tool used by the IMF so as to help maintain global macroeconomic stability. The SDR can be used for instance during times when liquidity and credit in the market dry up such as the case of the 2008 crisis.

Apart from the obvious kudos for China that comes with becoming a component part of the IMF’s, SDR basket, there is also another factor why the second largest global economy would like to be a member of this very exclusive club.

China for some time has strived to reform its economy and evolve it from being the factory of the planet to become a modern global economy with a lower but a more sustainable growth model.

It is, therefore, a fairly obvious requirement that one of the world’s most important economies becomes a member of this foreign exchange based stability mechanism.

As the IMF carries out a review every five years and with the next review due to take place, China sees it vital to its interest that it is currency joins the SDR basket.

Although such a move would be very much symbolic due to the restrictive nature of the current Chinses financial system, it will be however a step towards normalizing China’s economy and bring it in line with the other developed nations.

There are risks if other members, most notably the United States blocks Chinese entry into the IMF SDR programme. Such a move could antagonise the Chinese political establishment who will see this as an embarrassing slap in the face.

A rejection by the IMF could, therefore, see the Chinese Government decide to go it alone and chart their own course with other partners such as Russia and Brazil.

If, however, the Yuan is accepted into the SDR basket, the Chinese Government will have to show concrete willingness to allow the Yuan to move freely and in line with market forces








EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0820

Target 2: 1.0630

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.0790





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5220

Target 2: 1.5015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.5090





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.95

Target 2: 122.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

Daily control level: 123.43





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0130

Target 2: 0.9985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 1.0018






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3375

Target 2: 1.3170

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.3295



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7100

Target 2: 0.6950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 0.7014





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1104.00

Target 2: 1075.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.54

Daily control level: 1096.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.00

Target 2: 43.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 45.95









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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.11.2015




Overnight news from Australia propelled the Aussie Dollar higher. The 90 pip rise in AUDUSD was due to a set of very strong employment numbers.

The strength of the incoming data has resulted in the Australian Dollar reaching the upper level of today’s expected true range at the 0.7135 level.

This price level coincides with strong overhead resistance that is formed by a prior, multi-decade broken uptrend line.

With the price action consolidating between strong overhead resistance and the 0.7135 level, it could be expected that AUDUSD trends down to sideways in a corrective fashion.
This morning’s news release from the Australian Bureau of Statistics included the Employment Change and Unemployment Rate numbers.

The Employment Change release measures the change in the numbers those employed during the previous month.

The prior release was negative -0.8K and the market expected to see a slight improvement to 14.8K. However, the actual release smashed estimates by posting a hefty 58.6K.

The Unemployment Rate continued to fall and now stands below the 6% level. The market had expected to see a release of 6.2% which would have meant it was in line with the prior months data. However, the actual number beat predictions and was reported as 5.9%.

The creation of employment is an extremely important leading indicator as the salaries are a driver for consumer spending.

As consumer spending is by far the largest component of all economic activity, signs that a positive trend exists in labour creation can be used as a barometer that measures the health of the economy.

What happens in Australia also has wider implications for the global economy. The Australian economy is tied closely to the fortunes of China. This is due to the high volume of exports, especially of commodities that Australia sends to China.

Therefore, a pick up in the Australian economy could be used as a leading indicator to what happens in the world’s second-largest economy.

Furthermore, with both the United States Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney identifying external risks as a reason to hold back on interest rate increases, the news that one of the world’s largest commodity exporting nations is experiencing improving economic conditions will not go unnoticed.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0830

Target 2: 1.0650

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 1.0704




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5300

Target 2: 1.5100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.5090




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.60

Target 2: 122.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.77

Daily control level: 123.43




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0115

Target 2: 0.9970

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.0018





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3350

Target 2: 1.3165

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.3295



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7135

Target 2: 0.6985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 0.7014




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1099.00

Target 2: 1072.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.67

Daily control level: 1096.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 46.50

Target 2: 42.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 45.25






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 13.11.2015





This morning, the two heavyweights of the Euro-Area, Germany and France had economic growth news published.

Destatis and INSEE announced preliminary GDP numbers for the third quarter for Germany and France respectively.

German GDP declined in Q3 after having experienced a moderate bounce in Q2. The published data of 0.3% was in line with market expectations but less than the 0.4% of Q2.
In contrast, the French GDP number was much more positive with the actual of 0.3% being line with market expectations and above Q2’s prior release of 0.0%. It was however not a totally positive picture with the current level of French quarterly GDP being half of the high watermark level of 0.6% for May of this year.

The latest GDP numbers giving the European Central Bank President, Mr Mario Draghi little in the way of comfort. It would now appear that European policymakers are inching ever closer to the inevitable of increasing stimulus with the aim to boost the Euro-Zones sluggish economic recovery.

Draghi reiterated previous statements on Thursday when he saying the ECB was ready to review the current stimulus programme in December.

The ECB President’s very dovish stance was highlighted when he said that “The option of doing nothing would go against price stability.”

Draghi went further in saying that “From today’s perspective, this suggests that a sustained normalisation of inflation could take longer than we anticipated in March when we first appraised the overall impact of our measures. We have always said that our purchases would run beyond end-September 2016 in case we do not see a sustained adjustment in the path of inflation that is consistent with our aim of achieving inflation rates below, but close to, 2% over the medium term. Other instruments could also be activated to strengthen the impact of the purchase programme if necessary.”

Draghi’s comments initially sent the Euro lower, however buyers did come into the market around the 1.0700 area.

The move off the lows has resulted in the price action trading higher as it forms a series of higher lows and higher highs.

However, with the obvious divergence in US Federal Reserve and ECB monetary policy, it would not be difficult to imagine that any rally in the Euro could be short lived.










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0910

Target 2: 1.07150

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.0690





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5330

Target 2: 1.5125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5170




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.30

Target 2: 121.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.75

Daily control level: 123.06



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0050

Target 2: 0.9925

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 1.0083





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3385

Target 2: 1.3190

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.3222



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7195

Target 2: 0.7055

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 0.7085




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1098.00

Target 2: 1069.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.37

Daily control level: 1094.00






OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 44.00

Target 2: 41.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.57

Daily control level: 45.25






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.11.2015








Overnight, the Cabinet Office of the Japanese Government published Preliminary Third Quarter Gross Domestic Product numbers.

Unfortunately, the data that was presented for the third biggest global economy was extremely disappointing.

The markets had expected a GDP number of -0.1%, however, the actual release when it was announced stood at -0.2%.

Last night’s negative GDP data is the second quarter in succession that the Japanese economy has contracted. From a technical standpoint, the Japanese economy has now entered into a recession.

The sluggish GDP data will now put further pressure on the Shinzo Abe administration and the Bank of Japan to continue with a programme of economic stimulus and structural corrections.

The Japanese Government has however tried to put a positive spin on the latest GDP Data with Akira Amari, who is the Economics Minister saying “While there are risks such as overseas developments, we expect the economy to head toward a moderate recovery thanks to the effect of various (stimulus) steps taken so far.”












EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0840

Target 2: 1.0635

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.0830




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5325

Target 2: 1.5125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5186



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5325

Target 2: 1.5125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.5186




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0135

Target 2: 0.9985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 0.99



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3395

Target 2: 1.3205

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.3265




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7185

Target 2: 0.7050

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

Daily control level: 0.7085




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1104.00

Target 2: 1074.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.12

Daily control level: 1079.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.50

Target 2: 40.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.63

Daily control level: 43.40



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.11.2015.







This morning at 10:00 a.m. London time, German Center for the European Economic research (ZEW) will release the German Economic Sentiment data.

Around 350 financial analysts are participating in the survey, which shows the balance between the experts who have an optimistic opinion about the Germany’ economic developments within the next six months and these who are not.

Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most influential within the European Union, which makes it very influential to the common European currency.

Since the ZEW index is an important indicator which provides with the outlook of the country’s economic health, it typically causes heightened volatility in the EUR currency pairs.

The data above zero will generally indicate optimism and the opposite so below zero.
The German sentiment trend is declining since March 2015 when data reached this year’s high of 54.8. The statistics usually quite volatile and not following a smooth trend.

The forecast for today’s release is expected to read 6.7 which will be a slight improvement on the prior months 1.9 reading.

A higher reading in today’s number would be significant as it would be the first time in over six months that the ZEW would have broken its downtrend.

In case the release will be lower than expected, this will likely to put additional pressure to the recently weak EURUSD pair.








EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0775

Target 2: 1.0595

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 1.0830





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5295

Target 2: 1.5100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.5265




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.80

Target 2: 122.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.71

Daily control level: 122.20







USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0160

Target 2: 1.0025

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 0.9996





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3240

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.3285






AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7155

Target 2: 0.7030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0066

Daily control level: 0.7110






GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1097.00

Target 2: 1070.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.70

Daily control level: 1098.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 44.00

Target 2: 41.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.55

Daily control level: 43.40






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 23.11.2015





The European series of Flash Manufacturing PMI is taking the centre of traders’ attention this morning. French and German Flash PMI data are projected to increase to 50.7 and 52.2 correspondingly, with only general European PMI awaited to remain without changes at 52.3.

This set of PMI is released by Markit financial Information and typically comes out three weeks after a month ends after a month ends and may add volatility to the Euro pairs.

The European Manufacturing PMI set of data is a leading indicator of economic health in the manufacturing sector as purchasing managers possess good inside of the current economic conditions and adapt to them rapidly.

Around 500 purchasing managers from each zone are questioned to rate the current business conditions regarding an amount of new orders, inventories and production levels and also to rate employment sphere and supplier deliveries.

A number above 50 indicates that the industry is expanding, whereas 50 will states that there were no changes, with the below that showing a contraction.

The releases coming above the projections will usually have a positive effect on the common European currency with the vice versa applicable as well.

EURUSD has opened sharply lower this morning, as the US dollar continue to gain strength and reaching above 100 level during this morning, the level last seen seven month ago.






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0734

Target 2: 1.0544

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.0825




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5271

Target 2: 1.5075

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.5335




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.47

Target 2: 122.13

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.668

Daily control level: 123.75






USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.0270

Target 2: 1.0118

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.000





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: UP

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3251

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.3245






AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7301

Target 2: 0.7159

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

Daily control level: 0.7070






GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1090.25

Target 2: 1062.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.70

Daily control level: 1098.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.28

Target 2: 40.28

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.504

Daily control level: 43.00





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.11.2015





Oil ended last trading session higher after Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest petroleum exporter, agreed to cooperate with other oil producing countries on price stability.

West Texas Intermediate price reached US$ 43.00 high during the yesterday’s session, whereas Brent surged to US$ 45.99 level. After a market experienced a significant volatility due to the announcement, WTI closed the day 45 cents higher, whereas Brent gained 58 cents.

Oil price lost almost two third of the value since its collapse began in the middle of 2014, with the WTI hitting the low of US$ 37.92 at the end of last August.

In the previous meeting held by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries last month, Saudi Arabia declared that despite the worrying market state it is not willing to cut the production presently.

As the oil industry is mainly controlled by just a few large oil producers, it implies quite a harsh competition. By allowing a significant price drop, the larger producers could ensure that smaller competitors will be erased, as producing at the low cost is unsustainable to them.

Nevertheless the incentive for higher prices has still remained for the producers, with many analysts believe that the currently low prices could not last long.

At the moment, the OPEC has set the limits of production at 30 million barrels per day. However, since there is no penalty imposed on the producers in case these restrictions are exceeded, the chances are that the present parameters are not kept by some of the OPEC members.

The Saudi comments came just a day after the Venezuelan Oil Minister Eulogio Del Pino told in a press conference that the oil price could drop to as low as US$ 20 if no change in the OPEC’s current policy will be made.

Mr Del Pino comments are doubled by the September’s forecast of Goldman Sachs, which indicated that the Oil price could reach US$ 20 per barrel next year. Nevertheless, the majority of analysts believe that the oil price should balance closer to US$ 60.

For now the Saudi Arabia proposed “willingness to cooperate” does not, in fact, change anything and remains just words. Recently surging US Dollar is adding further pressure on the black commodity’s price.

The weakness of the world’s second largest economy China, therefore the significantly reduced demand for Oil is an additional heavy weighting factor. Therefore drastic actions and significant efforts need to be implemented in order for the oil price to recover in the near future.

The next OPEC meeting will be held on December 4 could give some more hints regarding the direction of the Oil price in the near future, however, it seems unlikely that the current market-based pricing strategy will be abandoned by the organization.



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0726

Target 2: 1.0546

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.0825




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5219

Target 2: 1.5025

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.5335






USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.48

Target 2: 122.18

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.649

Daily control level: 123.75







USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0270

Target 2: 1.0118

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.000






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3445

Target 2: 1.3281

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.3245







AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7256

Target 2: 0.7120

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0068

Daily control level: 0.7070





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1081.75

Target 2: 1055.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.95

Daily control level: 1098.00







OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.80

Target 2: 40.84

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.482

Daily control level: 43.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.11.2015




Further updates on economic conditions within the United States will come in the form of the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders data this afternoon at 1:30 pm London time.

The index released by the US Census Bureau represents the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of durable goods.

Transportation and aircraft items are excluded from the index, since these goods are of a high value and volatility and can significantly distort the overall picture.

Durable goods are defined as items with a life expectancy of more than three years, which includes cars, computers, industrial machinery and appliances.

Monthly manufacturers’ inventories, shipments and orders are surveyed with the manufacturing companies of US$ 500 million and more in yearly deliveries.

An increased level of purchase orders shows that producers will be busy in the coming months to work on filling the orders, which consequently will influence the creation of additional jobs and increase spending.

The value of the index for the month of October is projected to improve to 0.5%, up from -0.3% of the previous publishing.

The actual value of the indicator that is above the forecasted will likely have a boosting effect on the US currency.

US Dollar Index has recently set new highs and was trading above 100 mark at the beginning of this week’s trading session. However, the index showed some weakness for the last two days and reached 99.35 low this morning.



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0732

Target 2: 1.0552

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 1.0830






GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5168

Target 2: 1.4988

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 1.5335






USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.17

Target 2: 121.89

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.642

Daily control level: 123.75





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0237

Target 2: 1.0089

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 1.000






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3382

Target 2: 1.3224

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 1.3245



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7319

Target 2: 0.7181

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0069

Daily control level: 0.7150




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1088.38

Target 2: 1061.82

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.27

Daily control level: 1098.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 44.58

Target 2: 41.58

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.5007

Daily control level: 40.65






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 26.11.2015




The quarterly Australian Private Expenditure data has opened this trading day with quite a disappointing results, as it showed that the spending by the private businesses decreased to -9.2 % against -2.8% expected.

This data completed this year’s set of the releases with all of them in the negative side and reached the worst results since February 2000, pulling the recently recovering AUDUSD pair to the downside.

“In an acknowledgment that the below-par economic growth of the past three years will persist, the Treasury’s top forecaster, Nigel Ray, said next month’s budget update would assume long-term growth of 2.75 per cent, down from about 3 percent” – the Australian Financial Review reports.

“A sharp slowdown in population growth since export prices peaked in 2011 means the economy won’t expand as fast as previously assumed. Lower growth could mean a future of fewer jobs and poorer investment returns. It would hit taxes, making it harder to pay for promised raises in defence, education, old age and welfare services” – Jacob Greber, observes in his recent article.

For now the probability of a further interest rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in the near future is increasing, as fewer people will mean fewer employees and, therefore, an additional drop in productivity.

The European trading session today looks quite deserted regarding the economic releases, whereas the American markets are closed for the Thanksgiving holiday. Thus, the low trading volume will likely govern the market though the risk of volatility in case of any significant event enters the media headlines.

Despite some retracement yesterday, it seems the dollar index is continuing to persist on the way up, bouncing off the 99.75 support this morning and likely heading to retest the recent high of 100.20.

Gold, the traders’ favourite commodity after the oil is remaining to trade at five-year low, trading a descending triangle pattern, which could suggest a move lower might be ahead.
Oil price, after encountering some volatility, has managed to keep the positions it gained on Monday on Saudi Arabia’s comments. The crude was trading above US$ 43.10 support and daily pivot point this morning.



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0700

Target 2: 1.0540

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 1.0690





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5200

Target 2: 1.5040

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 1.5050




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.20

Target 2: 122.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.56

Daily control level: 123.00





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0280

Target 2: 1.0135

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.0140






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3360

Target 2: 1.3215

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.3340





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7315

Target 2: 0.7185

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064

Daily control level: 0.7155




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1082.00

Target 2: 1058.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.30

Daily control level: 1081.00







OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 44.80

Target 2: 41.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.49

Daily control level: 42.15




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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.11.2015


As we head into next week and the start of the last month of 2015, one would have expected that the markets would be in a holiday mode as trading volumes decline during the beginning of the festive season.

In reality, the opposite is very much the case. On Thursday of next week, Mr. Mario Draghi, who is the president of the European Central Bank will give his final and probably most important press conference of the year.

The markets are expecting President Draghi to announce new measures that will help to kick start the Euro-Zones patchy economic recovery.

There have been complications since the last ECB meeting with a refugee crisis vividly shown on European television channels causing real friction between the leadership of political parties and the rank and file members as well as between European Union member Governments.

This refugee crisis has been followed by the tragic events that have unfolded in Paris and the need to shut down productive economic activity in much of Belgium due to fears of further terrorist action.

With the Schengen treaty that allows for the free movement of persons within the European Union Member borders now under real threat the fear is that the Geopolitical instability that has its roots in the Middle East could eventually restrict the flow of commerce within Schengen member states. The knock on effect would be to further depress the economic outlook for the Euro-Area.

The European nations have a duty of care to look after and provide shelter to refugees who are fleeing conflict. We simply could not allow those fleeing terror to remain on the beaches of Greece and Malta during the cold winter season.

However, accepting so many new arrivals is going to add an extra burden on the resources of the European countries who have offered a safe haven. This comes at a time when these resources are limited.

Furthermore, these refugees will in the medium term want to be fully integrated into society. This will include the new citizens wish to be economically active. The very idea of some estimated one million new arrivals being accepted into the Euro-Area will have the analysts at the ECB trying to ascertain very quickly what the likely impact will be on inflation and the job market.

This brings us back to the events of next week. The ECB is already under pressure to act on the economy and it is very likely that it will announce an expansion of the current quantitative easing programme.

Will the refugee crisis have an impact on ECB policy? Probably not at this stage. However if the crisis in Syria and Iraq is not resolved soon and if the world’s powers do not settle their differences and move ahead to alleviate the plight of these countries populations, then the potential for serious impact on the Euro-Area economy should not be ruled out.



EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0690

Target 2: 1.0530

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 1.0690





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5175

Target 2: 1.5020

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0079

Daily control level: 1.5050




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.10

Target 2: 122.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.55

Daily control level: 122.72



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0300

Target 2: 1.0170

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 1.0140





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3360

Target 2: 1.3220

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 1.3340




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7290

Target 2: 0.7160

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0064

Daily control level: 0.7155



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1083.00

Target 2: 1059.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27

Daily control level: 1075.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 44.50

Target 2: 41.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.45

Daily control level: 42.15



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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.11.2015






Earlier in November, the International Monetary Fund Managing Director, Christine Lagarde announced her backing for the inclusion of the Chinese Yuan into a select basket of international reserve currencies.

It is now expected that later today, the Chinese Yuan will be given official IMF approval that sees this currency obtain Special Drawing Rights status.

Gaining SDR status has been a long term goal for both the Chinese political leadership and the Peoples Bank of China.

If, as it is assumed, the Yuan is included as an IMF reserve currency, then it will join other global currency heavyweights in an exclusive club that includes, the US Dollar, the Euro, British Pound and Japanese Yen.

The acceptance into this prestigious club would indicate that the IMF has looked past the problems that China has faced over the summer.

Furthermore, it would appear that the currency devaluation that the PBOC initiated is not seen as an impediment for inclusion in the SDR basket.

Although it is not thought that China will make any implicit commitments not to embark on further competitive devaluations, there does appear that the Chinese leadership will stick to a path that is more focused on consumption and less that is export driven.

The inclusion of the Yuan into the IMF SDR basket is a symbolic win for the Chinese Government. However, this move by the IMF says a lot about the stance of the United States with respect to China.

With the Chinese economy continuing to grow, albeit, at a reduced rate, the United States has shown its preference to accept a country that now boasts the second largest economy within a club that was up till now controlled from Washington.

Any move by the United States to block the Yuan membership into the SDR basket would have meant China taking direction away from the influence of Western nations.

The Chinese Yuan membership into the SDR basket could be seen as the beginning of the end of US Dollar dominance and the only global reserve currency.

For sure, the US will have to loosen its grip on the IMF if it is going to accept the inclusion of the Yuan into the SDR basket.

However, this is not a simple changing of the guard that sees China replacing the United States as the all-powerful economic superpower.

The effects of the inclusion of the Yuan will be evolutionary rather than revolutionary as the Chinese Government moves further to transforming the country’s economy.

In the long term, if the Chinese economy does continue to growth and if regulations are improved and brought in line with acceptable international standards, then we may find the world in a few decades from now that sees the United States become one two or three (if we include the Euro) global reserve currencies.

In the short term, however, with both the European Central Bank and the Peoples Bank of China staying on a path of monetary easing and with the United States Federal Reserve about to begin a policy of tightening, the divergence of monetary policies should see the US Dollar maintain its global dominance.





EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0665

Target 2: 1.0510

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 1.0640




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5115

Target 2: 1.4950

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 1.5110




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.30

Target 2: 122.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.55

Daily control level: 122.30




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0370

Target 2: 1.0230

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.0250




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3435

Target 2: 1.3290

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 1.3280




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7250

Target 2: 0.7130

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0063

Daily control level: 0.7240




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1070.00

Target 2: 1044.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.96

Daily control level: 1075.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 43.00

Target 2: 41.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

Daily control level: 42.15






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.12.2015






As expected, the Chinese Yuan has been accepted by the International Fund into the basket of Special Drawing Rights currencies.

This means barring any disasters, the Yuan will join an exclusive club of currencies in October of 2016.

The head of the IMF, Christine Lagarde on a momentous day for China said of the Yuan’s acceptance as an SDR currency that this was “an important milestone in the integration of the Chinese economy into the global financial system”

The Chinese Yuan new found status as a key component of the IMF’s basket of reserve currencies not only brings with it a great deal of prestige but is also a vote of confidence in the manner that the Chinese Government and the Peoples Bank of China have managed the recent crisis that has hit the domestic economy.

The move by the IMF also signals and acceptance that the Peoples Bank of China is gaining increasing prestige and authority. The significance of the Yuan’s SDR acceptance, therefore, highlights that the Chinese Government has allowed a certain degree of power and control to be transferred from the ruling party to an independent, state organization.

Furthermore, from a geopolitical aspect, the Yuan’s acceptance into the IMF’s SDR basket is a clear and strong message that the Chinese economy matters. The Chinese Yuan in a very short space of time has now become one or the major global currencies.

Although we are some way from the USDCNY currency pair gaining the status of EURUSD for sure the time will come in the near future when CNY will become an important financial instrument.










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0641

Target 2: 1.0485

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078

Daily control level: 1.0636








GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.5137

Target 2: 1.4975

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 1.4993



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.70

Target 2: 122.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.59

Daily control level: 122.67




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0363

Target 2: 1.0211

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.0225




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3435

Target 2: 1.3283

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0076

Daily control level: 1.3280




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7295

Target 2: 0.7160

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0068

Daily control level: 0.7169




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1079.00

Target 2: 1051.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.84

Daily control level: 1075.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 43.00

Target 2: 41.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.42

Daily control level: 43.66






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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.12.2015






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has breached the top of downtrend channel yesterday, with the move, however proved to be unsuccessful later.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0610 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0583, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0535, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0634, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0658, being the 2nd upside resistance level, could further take place.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the today’s pivot point this morning, retracing sharply from the yesterday’s highs.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5001, being today’s Average True Range downside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.4969, which is with the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of the day, could likely take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5085, which is the pair’s Pivot Point of today.







USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY does not let go of its efforts to trade higher.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.43, being today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.55, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.92, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.56, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today, could likely occur.




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has breached the uptrend channel last night.

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0222, being the first 1st pivot support of today. Following that the pair will likely to strive towards 1.0211 level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0318. A further extension towards 1.0336 resistance, which is also approximately coincides with the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is striving to continue the upward move.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3354 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3400, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. should this aim be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3428, being the daily Average True Range upside target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3332, which is the 1st intermediate pivot support level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3311 could then follow that move.



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues sharply higher on the way up this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7292 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7388, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR),

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7292, being the pair’s pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, the extension towards 0.7252, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support line of today, and also coincides with downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could likely occur next.





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 1068.83 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1063.20, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support level of today. Further extension towards 1057.49, could occur next following that.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1074.54, which is the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has bounced off the daily pivot point this morning, once again retesting the bottom of the daily upward trend channel.

The commodity needs to hold below 42.24 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 41.69, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. Should the trading break below this level, the next commodity’s target could be 41.20 level, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 42.49, being the commodity’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today.








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 03.12.2015



As the year comes to a close, the markets await two monumental decisions. It is thought by many and priced into the market that the European Central Banks, Governing Council have already agreed upon an expansion of their already large Quantitative easing program.

Whereas, across the North Atlantic in Washington, it is assumed that the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee has all but rubber-stamped a decision to increase interest rates for the first time in some 9 years.

Back in the day, a central bank’s decision to increase or decrease interest rates although an important event never carried such significance, or was written about in such detail. However, in an era of globalization and an interconnected international economy, a decision to tighten or ease monetary policy has become very big news indeed.

The decisions that will be taken over the next few weeks come after a deep recession that hit the global economy in 2008. Although stock markets around the world have recovered, anything other than a rally in the major indices would have expected with so much cheap and abundant money looking for somewhere to be parked.

The United States Federal Reserve and the Bank of England was quick to step in and boost their economic systems by embarking on substantial stimulus programmes. The European Central Bank, shackled by the German Government and Bundesbank only decided to initiate its own QE programme on January 22 of this year.

The ECB President, Mr. Mario Draghi announce a few months back that the central bank would do what it takes to bring back growth to the sluggish European economy. This was an admission that all was not well with the ECB’s current programme of stimulus. It is now hard to believe that less than 12 months since the last European QE programme was announced that the markets are already pricing in QE2.

The ECB is probably right to worry. It only needs to look to Japan. A country that has suffered a chronic and disastrous recession. The fear amongst the ECB governing council is that the plight of Japan could turn out to be the story of the Euro-Area.

There are of course differences between the Japan and the Euro-Zone. Japan is a much smaller economy that is heavily focussed on manufacturing, whereas the Euro-Zone brings together a much more diverse economy.

For a better comparison, we really need to look across to the United States. What becomes evident when one compares the US and Euro-Area is the how out of kilt the economic cycles are.

Although a low inflation environment does continue to persist in the USA, there are signs that this picture is beginning to change. Furthermore, over the past few months there has been real signs that the US jobs market is beginning to show positive gains.

By contrast, the Euro-Area has shown patchy employment growth and an anaemic inflation outlook. There is talk that the Euro-Area is some 24 to 36 months behind the United States. This is probably a correct assumption. However, the structural and political problems continue to persist in the Euro-Area.

Although QE2 should eventually push the Euro-Area towards recovery, the main beneficiaries will be the core nations such as Germany, Netherlands, Austria and France. For the periphery such as Greece, Italy, Portugal and Spain the road back to recovery will continue to be a long and painful journey.











EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0680

Target 2: 1.0540

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

Daily control level: 1.0636




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5035

Target 2: 1.4865

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.5125




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 123.80

Target 2: 122.65

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.60

Daily control level: 122.75





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0255

Target 2: 1.0100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 1.0306




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3265

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0077

Daily control level: 1.3406




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7375

Target 2: 0.7240

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0067

Daily control level: 0.7169



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1067.00

Target 2: 1040.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.13

Daily control level: 1075.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 42.00

Target 2: 39.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

Daily control level: 42.60

 

[acfx]

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 04.12.2015










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has retraced this morning, after the 450 pips move on Mario Draghi speech last afternoon.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0813 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1037, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1105, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0645, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0500, being the 2nd intermediate support and an important psychological level at the same time, could further take place.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has surged higher yesterday amid the strengthening US Dollar.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5067 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.5231, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside projection level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5321, which is with the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level, could likely take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5041, which is the pair’s today’s Average True Range downside target.





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 121.89, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has declined sharply lower on the Mario Draghi speech yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0270 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9900, being the daily Average True Range downside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair will likely continue to trade towards 0.9779 next.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today is 1.0170. A further extension towards 1.0290 resistance, which is the Average True Range upside target of today, could follow next in this case.




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to range for the second week.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3348 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3296, being the pair’s the pair’s 1st support of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3240 level.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3403, which is today’s pivot resistance level of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3431, being the daily Average True Range upside projection could then follow that move.





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD was not much affected by the yesterday’s markets volatility.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7327 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7271, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7248, being the 2nd pivot support line together with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7371, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold above 1057.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1069.40, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Further extension towards 1076.75, being the upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range (ATR), could occur next following that.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1057.79, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today. The commodity price then could further stretch towards 1050.30 level, which also coincides with the downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil is trading higher this morning after it reached a new three-month low on Wednesday.

The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 42.76, which is the commodity’s first support level of today. . Should the trading break above this level, the next commodity’s target could be 43.51, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today which also coincides with of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.79, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 07.12.2015







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD continue to retrace from the Thursday’s highs when Mario Draghi speech became a disappointment to investors.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0890 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0768, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0703, which is 2nd pivot support of the pair, could take place next.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0890, being the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this level is reached, a prolonged extension to 1.0973, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could further take place.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is consolidating, after a strong upmove on Thursday.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5000 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5032, being today’s 2nd pivot support level of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 1.5000, which is with today’s Average True Range downside projection level of the pair, could likely take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5048, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is recovering yesterday’s losses this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 122.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.33, which also approximately coincides with today’s Average True Range upside target of the pair. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.70, which is with the pair’s 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.44, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.53, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today together with Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is retesting 1.0030 resistance line, looking to recover the losses the pair made last Thursday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.09969 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0070, being the daily Average True Range upside projection. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0121 intermediate resistance next.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9970, being the pivot point of today. A further extension towards 0.9905 resistance, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support level, could follow next in this case.



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is trading higher this morning, after the set of dissapointing Canadian economic data was published last Friday.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3364 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3450, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3510, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3363, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3288, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD declined lower this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7331 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7267, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7251, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support line and coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7384, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, the extension towards 0.7409, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection, could likely occur next.




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold was among the top performers last Friday, as investors’ uncertainty regarding the forex main currency grows.

The commodity needs to hold above 1077.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1096.84, which is also approximately coincides with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1107.88, being the pair’s second resistance point of today could likely take place next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1070.91, which is the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil continues to trade lower this morning as no action to reduce the oil production was the outcome of the Friday’s OPEC meeting.

The commodity needs to hold above 41.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial downside target is 39.01, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 41.93, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.12.2015












EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is ranging, trying to define a further direction after last Thursday’s move.

EURUSD needs to break below 1.0838 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0789, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this level be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0731, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could take place next.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0939, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.






GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is heading lower after much lower than expected UK Manufacturing Production figure was published this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5070 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4953, being today’s 3rd pivot support level, which also coincides with Daily Average True Range downside projection level of the pair.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5070, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is retracing this morning.

USDJPY needs to break above the 123.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 123.32, which is the pivot point of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 123.50, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of the day, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.83, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.72, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely occur.





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating after last Thursday’s decline.

USDCHF needs to breach above 1.0000 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0033, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 1.0067, being the 2nd resistance level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9927, being the 1st pivot support of today. A further extension towards 0.9900 level, which is the pair’s daily Average True Range downside projection level, could follow next in this case.





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has reached the eleven-year high this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3461 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3584, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this level be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3620, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3461, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. A further extension towards of 1.3412, being the daily Average True Range downside projection could follow that move then.







AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7287 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7190, being the of the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. Following that, the pair could decline to 0.7149, being the 3rd pivot support line of today.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7287, being the pair’s pivot point level of today.







GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retracing from the last Friday’s highs.

The commodity needs to hold below 1074.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1062.82, which is the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, a move towards 1054.62, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could likely take place next.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.72, which is the commodity’s upside projection level of the Daily Average True Range.





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has declined to a six-year low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 39.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 37.90, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 37.30, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.28, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.










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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 09.12.2015







The European Central Banks decisions not to deliver on its promise of QE2 has created indecision in the minds of traders.

Following the ECB’s lack of action, the market is now divided on the outcome of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s rate decision that takes place today.

However, some websites are reporting that the forecast is that the Official Cash Rate will be cut by 25 basis points from 2.75% to 2.50%.

A rate cut at this stage although significant, a failure by the RBNZ to follow through at this juncture would not put this story to bed.

What is of equal importance is the wording of the forward guidance that is made available to the market.

A dovish statement by the RBNZ will reinforce the negative bias for NZDUSD. Furthermore, the apparent policy divergence between the RNBZ and the United States Federal Reserve could further weaken the Kiwi over the short to medium term.

From a technical perspective, there is a concern within the RBNZ that the New Zealand Dollar has shown recent signs of strength. The price action having put a bottom in place at the 0.6120 which coincides with an area of monthly Fibonacci support around the 61.8% retracement level that was generated from March 2009 low and August 2011 high.

The move off the 61.8% Fibonacci level was sufficient enough to push NZDUSD through upward resistance as the price action broke through the upper slope of a downward channel that began in July 2014.

With the price action having re-broken above the 100 periods daily moving average as NZDUSD attempts to put in place a higher high, higher low, higher high formation on the daily chart, the fear within the RBNZ is that with the Kiwi no perilously close to the 200 periods daily moving average.

The opportunity now presents itself for a reinjection of some bearish news that will reinforce the dovish argument for NZDUSD and allow for this currency to once again depreciate, thus helping these country exporters to maintain their competitive advantage.

In terms of timing and levels, we should see a pickup in downside momentum post the FOMC meeting on December 16. That is unless we get a dovish surprise from the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen.

The key levels would be a bounce off the 200 SMA around the 0.6700 / 0.6750 area and confirmation of the bearish bias will occur if we see a breach of the most recent daily swing low at the 0.6425 and then followed by a break of the 0.6400 big figure.

A more aggressive strategy would be to follow the downside momentum as the price action breaks key 4 and 1-hour support levels.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0990

Target 2: 1.0790

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.0950





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5105

Target 2: 1.4910

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.5160





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.55

Target 2: 122.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.62

Daily control level: 123.50





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0020

Target 2: 0.9825

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.0035





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3675

Target 2: 1.3495

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 1.3315




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7285

Target 2: 0.7140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0072

Daily control level: 0.7385




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1089.00

Target 2: 1060.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.94

Daily control level: 1066.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 40.00

Target 2: 37.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.56

Daily control level: 42.85









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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 10.12.2015












EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is retracing from 10-day high.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0981 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1084, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1130 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0918, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0817 support level.




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has reached a two-week high ahead of BOE Monetary Policy Statement this afternoon.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5124 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.5245, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5281, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could further take place.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5069, which is the pair’s the Daily Average True Range downside aim.




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has declined lower as investors interest in the Japanese Yen is increasing.

USDJPY needs to hold below the 121.86 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 120.68, which is the 1st pivot support and also coincides the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.87, could likely take place.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.62, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 123.81, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today, could occur.






USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has breached the downtrend channel this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9864 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9725, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9933, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.







USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3570 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3486, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3418, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3625, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3670, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.







AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is trying to return to trade within the limits of the recently breached uptrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7332, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7385 could likely to be seen next following that.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7215, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold continue ranging in indecision after it surged higher last Friday.

The commodity needs to hold above 1075.49 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial downside target is 1087.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1066.01, which is the 1st support level of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1056.60, being the commodity’s downside projection level of the Daily Average True Range, could take place next.





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil is consolidating at the six-year this morning, with the likely attempt to retest these limits.

The commodity needs to hold below 38.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 37.51, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim achieved successfully, the price could extend towards 36.92, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.12, being the commodity’s Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.











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