Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

acfx · Jan 14, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.01.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD surged higher this morning, ahead of the release of the accounts from the latest ECB policy meeting held on December 3rd.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0855 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0968, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upnside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0989, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0855, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0797, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has slightly recovered this morning, after the pair sunk to a new six-year low yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4420 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4316, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4268, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4461, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4497, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of the pair.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is retracing this morning, after the formation of the lower high showed the pair’s unability to support the upward momentum.

USDJPY needs to hold below 117.88 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 117.39, which is the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.877.12 being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.16, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.40, being the USDJPY 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level, could occur next.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has broken sharply the recently formed upward trend channel, as US Dollar shows some weakness during today’s trading session.

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0060 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9927, which is the 3rd pivot support level for today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0060, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension to 1.0103 could follow next.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has reached a new thirteen-year high this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4459 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4160, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4494, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4300, which is the Pivot point of today of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4256, being the Average True Range downside projection of the pair.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.6983 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6878, being the Average True Range downside projection of the pair. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6852 could likely follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7001, being the pairs Average True Range upside projection. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.7018, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today, could take place next.

GOLD

level The intraday technical outlook

Gold is once again retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to break below 1089.42 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1081.69, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1078.63, which is the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.19, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance point of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price has has concentrated around the daily pivot point.

The commodity needs to hold below 31.65 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 30.72, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.04, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of the commodity, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.82, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

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acfx · Jan 15, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.01.2016

According to market commentary by the British banking giant, the Royal Bank of Scotland, investors and the general public are facing a “cataclysmic year”.

In a note to investors, RBS said “Sell everything except high-quality bonds. This is about the return of capital, not return on capital. In a crowded hall, exit doors are small.”

RBS pointed to the crisis in China as a catalyst that would lead to the world economy shuddering into a grinding halt. The parallel to events of 2008 which led to the once-mighty Lehman Brothers falling into bankruptcy is a scenario that is worrying to say the least.

Following the events of 2008, central banks across the globe implemented massive stimulus programmes in the form of quantitative easing. These programmes were combined with structural reform and belt-tightening which in the case of periphery Eurozone economies was administered with considerable hardship for these countries citizens.

Is it really the case that after all these sacrifices, that according to RBS, that 2016 will be a year that brings us back to ground zero?

The stock market falls in China has been accompanied with declines in Europe, the USA and Asia. The major US indices of the Dow30, S&P500 and NasDaq are in bear territory.

Equity markets have risen off the back of cheap credit. Although these days are not exactly over with interest rates still being substantially low, the support that was offered has been withdrawn when the US FOMC increased interest rates by 25 basis points in December. The Federal Reserve, according to its dot plot is planning to hike interest rates a further four times during 2016.

In the commodity space, the price of crude continues to tumble and these falls could increase as Iranian production is ramped up. With Saudi Arabia and Iran now at loggerheads, over geopolitical tensions stemming from competing interests in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, it is hard to see how these two Persian Gulf giants will be able to negotiate an agreement to limit production at the next OPEC gathering.

According to Andrew Roberts, who RBS credit chief, U.S and European equities are in line for a 10% to 20% correction. This gloomy prediction follows on from Morgan Stanley’s call for Oil to reach US$20 per barrel. Standard Chartered was, even more, negative on oil when it forecast crude hitting US$10 per barrel.

If investment banks are correct, the old adage of “sell in May and go away” has been replaced by “sell now and go on holiday”.

The picture that we are now seeing on the equity front is not very encouraging. Global indices do look like a sell-side bet. The investment bankers could be right. Growth in the global economy could hit the buffers and the China credit bubble could burst. There is enough geopolitical risk and bad news to make most us switch off our flat screen televisions when the nightly bulletin is about to begin.

Invariably, most of the times, investment bankers get it wrong. RBS is correct to highlight the concerns. However, it is still rather difficult to assess the impact that a slowdown in China will have on the global economy. It should be remembered that the Chinese economy in relative terms opened up only recently to the outside world.

The problem with notes such as the one made by RBS is that if you look hard enough, you will find signs that point to an impending crash in the global economy. On the flip side, the same can be true if you look for signs that the global economy is going to expand.

However, the fear is that such pessimistic outlooks that are promoted by investment banks could create a surge in negative sentiment and a self-fulfilling prophecy.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0954

Target 2: 1.0788

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.0940

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4502

Target 2: 1.4317

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.4450

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 118.51

Target 2: 117.33

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.92

Daily control level: 117.20

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0134

Target 2: 0.9956

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.0095

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4463

Target 2: 1.4406

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 1.4325

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7011

Target 2: 0.6915

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 0.6905

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1091.00

Target 2: 1068.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.62

Daily control level: 1096.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 32.98

Target 2: 30.44

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.6536

Daily control level: 32.60

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acfx · Jan 18, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.01.2016

Much to the displeasure of the Saudi’s and their Gulf allies, most of the economic sanctions that were placed on Iran have been lifted.

However, this victory for Tehran was tempered by news from Washington that the United States had imposed new, limited sanctions against eleven entities and individuals that are associated with Iran’s ballistic missile programme.

This positive news for Iran is also good news for global business as it allows this country to come back into the international fold and transact in global commerce.

Iran after many years of sanctions is in urgent need for a renewal of its infrastructure. This will bring many opportunities to foreign businesses who are looking for a slice of the action. It has already been reported for example that Airbus Industries is in line to capture a major 114 airliner order from Iran now that sanctions have been lifted.

There will also be a monetary windfall for the Iranian Government as it will finally have access to some USD 100 billion in assets that were frozen and off limits.

However, the lifting of the embargo means that Iran is now free to ramp up its output of Crude Oil. Presently, Iran pumps out 1.1 million barrels of oil on a daily basis for export. Now that the embargo has been lifted, Iran is now free to use its spare capacity to increase exports by 500,000 barrels per day. Once the infrastructure is in place and if customers can be found Iran plans to further increase production by a further 500,000 barrels per day.

With Iran increasing production the price of crude which is already under significant pressure could be set to fall further.

In the past, Saudi Arabia has been able to maintain its market share by squeezing high cost of extraction businesses such as the US Shale producers. However, such a policy would be difficult to implement against Iran for a variety of reasons.

Iran enjoys a relatively low cost of production which will enable it to ride out any further price shocks. Furthermore, the Iran government is committed for political reasons to increase production as this would be in line with its geopolitical ambitions of confronting the Saudi’s over the leading role in Syria and Iraq.

Crude has been used before as a political lever. One only needs to look back to 1973 oil embargo that was imposed due to the Arab-Israeli conflict. Once again, it would appear that simple rules of demand and supply will be distorted as the political imperative takes centre stage as Riyadh and Tehran fight over regional supremacy.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0992

Target 2: 1.0820

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.0830

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4361

Target 2: 1.4169

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.4450

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 117.64

Target 2: 116.35

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.01

Daily control level: 118.30

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0103

Target 2: 0.9953

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.0060

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4639

Target 2: 1.4471

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

Daily control level: 1.4325

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.6925

Target 2: 0.6832

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 0.7005

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1104.00

Target 2: 1077.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.31

Daily control level: 1096.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 30.00

Target 2: 27.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.7593

Daily control level: 31.85

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acfx · Jan 19, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 19.01.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is retesting the upper limits of the downward trending channel this morning.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0895 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0837, which is the 2nd support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0798, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today together with the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0922, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0969, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is recovering after the UK inflation data indicated some improvement this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4353, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4384, which is the 3rd resistance level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4267, which is today’s Pivot Point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4211, being the 1st pivot support of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair reached a one-year low yesterday.

USDJPY needs to hold above 117.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 118.24, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.39 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 116.95, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 115.5748, being the USDJPY 1st intermediate pivot support level, could occur next.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0041 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0113, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0150, which is Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0041, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0010 could follow next.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4547 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.4372, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4548, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4611, being the 1st pivot resistance of the pair.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has breached the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6936 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6971, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7014 could likely follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6874, being the pairs Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6828, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection, could take place next.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.

Gold needs to hold below 1089.77 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1084.10, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1104.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1082.11, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price continues on the way up, after it bounced off the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.

The commodity needs to hold above 30.18 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 31.52, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.87, which is 3rd pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.81, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support of today.

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acfx · Jan 20, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 20.01.2016

There was an understanding that the Bank of England would either raise interest rates at the same time or the very least would follow in step with Washington policymakers at the Federal Reserve.

However in a speech given yesterday, the Bank of England Governor painted a depressing picture of the United Kingdom and global economy.

The US and the UK economies are very similar however Mark Carney has now thrown into question from where the growth and inflation that the FOMC are seeing will come from.

Mark Carney has in effect implied that Janet Yellen and her colleagues have made a policy error in increasing interest rates in December.

Furthermore, far from moving in step with the dot plot that proposes four US interest rates in 2016, the Bank of England has now totally discounted the possibility of a UK interest rate rise during the course of this year.

The FOMC in December moved to nominalize the interest rate environment just in case inflation and wage growth got out of hand.

Yesterday’s speech by the Bank of England Governor has now created a two-way bet on the outlook of the global economy.

Was Yellen prudent in her policy to hike interest rates or is Carney’s cautious wait and see approach more in tune with the realities of this much interconnected global economy.

The fallout from yesterday’s speech sent the British Pound tumbling to lows not seen since 2009 and there are no signs yet that the bottom has been reached. On a trade-weighted basis, the depreciation in the Pound over past 6 months stands at 7%.

2016 thus far has been a year of market volatility. The New Year always gives us the opportunity to reassess our lives, our plans and our situations. Back on January 4, the market had priced in a UK rate increase for November 2016. However, yesterday’s not so pleasant reassessment of the world economy has seen the markets push back the first rate increase until the middle of 2017.

In the space of just two weeks, what was thought to be the accepted course of interest rate policy over the next twelve months has been completely changed.

However, will the economic realities in 2017 allow the Bank of England to move ahead and increase rates? What if we do not see an improvement in CPI and wage data.

Mr Carney may be hoping that the weak pound will boost inflation and stimulate exports but so far, this has not been the case. On the contrary, inflation still is under considerable downward pressure and fears of deflation persist.

The problem is that the fight to get to the bottom in a currency war just reallocates deflationary pressure to the country that has the strongest currency.

If devaluation is the only tool left available to policy makers and with question marks over quantitative easing which has plainly has not worked as expected, what is next for world’s central bankers?

What is required is sustainable global growth and this will mean that some tough choices have to be made.

Is it a case that we reassess what is meant to be normal growth and lower our expectations or do the world leaders take the bold move to address the obvious problems of a global economy that suffer from overcapacity and an addiction to debt?

Harking back to the spring and summer months of last year, one politician was thrown into the global spotlight. He is, of course, Yanis Varoufakis the former Greek Finance Minister.

Maybe just maybe, this rebellious yet likeable chap got it right. We have had QE and we are now entering a currency war. However in this interconnected world, we need courageous and interconnected reform and policies that cure the ills and not just massage the symptoms.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1009

Target 2: 1.0857

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.0850

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4255

Target 2: 1.4056

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 1.4350

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 118.24

Target 2: 116.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11

Daily control level: 118.15

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0098

Target 2: 0.9930

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.9955

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4686

Target 2: 1.4517

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

Daily control level: 1.4420

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.6947

Target 2: 0.6820

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

Daily control level: 0.6835

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1102.00

Target 2: 1079.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.20

Daily control level: 1096.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 29.20

Target 2: 26.74

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.83

Daily control level: 30.30

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acfx · Jan 21, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 21.01.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0913 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0852, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0795, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0951, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0975, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has once again tried to retest the six-year low the pair reached yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4177 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4078, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4042, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4230, which is today’s 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4271, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY continues to decline, reaching a new year low yesterday.

USDJPY needs to hold below 116.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 116.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 116.00 being the pair’s psychological support level, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.77, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 118.56, being the USDJPY 2nd pivot resistance level, could occur next.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is ranging in indecision before deciding on the move further.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0028 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0095, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0132, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0028, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9998 could follow next.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4555 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.4370, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4338 support line.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4583, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4771, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues to range after the pair breached the top of the downward trend channel this Tuesday.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6885 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.6982, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7000 could likely follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6849, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6788, could take place next.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold seems to be unable to keep the upward momentum at the moment.

Gold needs to hold above 1099.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1113.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1121.00, which is the 2nd pivot support resistance.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1087.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price slid further down yesterday.

The commodity needs to hold below 28.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 27.49, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 26.91, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.64, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance of today.

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acfx · Jan 22, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.01.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD returned to trade within the borders of the downward trending channel formed earlier on 4 hours timescale.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0857 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0793, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0896, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0940, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD continues to recover the losses the pair made at the beginning of this week.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4183 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4332, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4404, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4182, which is today’s pivot point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4101, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has breached the top of the downtrend trending channel this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above 117.32 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 118.75, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.51 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.32, which is the pivot point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 116.83, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is trading higher this morning, with the pair continuing to observe the uptrend channel limits.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0076 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0142, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0169, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0076, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 1.0007 could follow next.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high on Wednesday.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4344 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.4137, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4031 support line.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4398, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target for today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4461, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD continues trade higher this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6963 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7051, being the 1st pivot resistance level of the pair for today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.8000 could likely follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6920, being the pairs the Daily Average True Range downside projection level. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6900, could take place next.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is slightly retracing from the highs the commodity made last Wednesday.

Gold needs to breach above 1099.22 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1106.00, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1114.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1085.00, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is recovering sharply since last afternoon.

The commodity needs to hold above 29.51 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial downside target is 31.86, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 32.57, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.51, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.

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acfx · Jan 25, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.01.2016

This morning at 9:00 London time Ifo Institute for Economic Research will release the German Ifo Business Climate numbers.

This report is released on a monthly basis and some three weeks into the current month.

The Ifo is a survey of current and future business sentiment with respondents also requested to rate their expectation six months forward from the survey date.

Due to the size and breadth of this report, the result of this survey is highly respected. This is because some 7000 business across Germany which are active in diverse sectors from manufacturing, construction, wholesale and retail are requested to respond.

The German Ifo Business Climate Survey is a leading indicator of the economic health of the country. As businesses can quickly recognize and adapt to the constantly changing market environment, this survey has proven to be a timely leading indicator to possible future economic activity.

Germany is the 4th largest economy in the world and by far the biggest and the most dominant within the European Union. This makes what happens in Germany very important. The release of the German Ifo can affect economic expectations and values of financial instruments not only in Germany but throughout the European Union.

The Ifo furthermore can have a dramatic effect on the Euro and the Euro crosses. Market volatility around the time of the Ifo release can potentially increase.

The forecasts for this month release are projecting the slight increase to 108.5, as compared to the previous number of 108.7.

A result that is higher than expected could potentially have a positive effect on the Euro currency whereas an actual release that is lower than expected could see the single currency come under pressure.

The reason for this is an optimistic business outlook can precede an increase in business activity and economic growth whereas a pessimistic bufsiness outlook could indicate a future contraction in business activity and possible stagnation or drop off of economic growth.

The recent ECB statement to the worlds gathered financial press was seen as very accommodating and dovish. The ECB President, Mr Mario Draghi said that he and his colleagues were in agreement and would do what it takes to ensure that Eurozone inflation meets the 2% target and that the employment outlook improves significantly. Mr Draghi used the phrase “No Limits” to reiterate how seriously the ECB is committed to these twin goals. If necessary, the European Central Bank is expected to announce additional measures as early as March. As the German Ifo survey contributes to the data that the ECB samples, today’s release will have added significance.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0896

Target 2: 1.0710

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0101

Daily control level: 1.0920

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4382

Target 2: 1.4179

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.4245

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 119.60

Target 2: 117.66

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.15

Daily control level: 116.40

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0234

Target 2: 1.0066

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.0010

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4287

Target 2: 1.4006

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0157

Daily control level: 1.4545

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7087

Target 2: 0.6923

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 0.6870

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1112.00

Target 2: 1086.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.52

Daily control level: 1091.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 33.96

Target 2: 30.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.97

Daily control level: 27.45

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acfx · Jan 26, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 26.01.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning, hinting that a move lower might be ahead.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0830 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0805, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0755, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0898, being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0943, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD continues to move lower after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trending channel yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4277 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4121, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4100, which is a psychological support level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4297, which the 1st pivot resistance point of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4329, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has bounced off the top of the downward trending channel, signalling a move higher might be ahead.

USDJPY needs to hold above 118.43 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 118.93, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 119.11 being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.74, which 2nd pivot support level. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.17, being the USDJPY Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could occur next.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is retesting a two-month high this morning, after an unsuccessful attempt yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0139 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0196, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0234, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0097, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. The extension further to 1.0066 could follow next.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD took a break from a sharp decline off the recently made thirteen-year high.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.4235 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4346, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4427, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4151, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target for today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is trying to trade higher this morning as the oil prices are rebounding.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6977 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7025, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7060 could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6895, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support of today. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6850, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold reached a two-month high this morning.

Gold needs to hold above 1104.44 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1123.00, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1099.99, which is the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is making one more recovery attempt this morning.

The commodity needs to break above 31.10 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 31.50, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.13 could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.13, being the commodity’s 1st pivot support of today.

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acfx · Jan 27, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 27.01.2016

It is believed that the United States economy is in a process of recuperating and heading to a growth phase. Inflation according to the Federal Reserve is most likely to increase during the coming year. Or at least, deflationary pressures will wane as wage inflation begins to finally kick in and catch up with what have been encouraging employment numbers.

Also, it could be assumed that Oil prices are close to bottoming out and this could begin to stimulate demand as businesses and the consumer takes advantage of cheap petroleum.

This could eventually lead to the supply gap being finally closed and therefore, feed into the FOMC’s requirement which sees inflation approaching the 2% target and, in turn, see growth pick up.

The head of the Federal Reserve, Janet Yellen will still be concerned that incoming data will derail her plans that according to the dot plot will lead to four interest rate hikes in 2016.

Yesterday Yellen received some good news with the Conference board publishing encourage Consumer Confidence data. There will be a further indication of the state of the US economy when on Friday when the US Bureau of Economic Analysis will publish the latest quarter on quarter GDP data.

In light of the mixed data and with a market that simply does not believe the Federal Reserve will stick to its planned path for interest rates for the remainder of the year the issue of how Janet Yellen delivers the message becomes of paramount importance.

The form is not good for the FOMC. Only back in September 2015, the Federal Reserve missed an opportunity to increase interest rates when the market expected this to happen.

The overly dovish sentiment that Janet Yellen gave had the markets reappraising the state of the US economic outlook. The FOMC’s action caused a crisis of confidence amongst market participants.

The FOMC wants to avoid what happen last autumn as any signs of weakness or regret would be interpreted that the Feds Fund rate increase in December may have been a mistake.

Sticking to their guns and being committed to a view that their decision making is correct should be applauded, however, the jury is still out on the Federal Reserve’s handling of the great recession of 2008 and the fallout and effects that followed.

Just like the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, the Federal Reserve could have got their timing wrong and may need to give themselves some room for flexibility.

Being wedded to a policy, come what may of 4 rate increases during 2016 could look very foolish if this leads to the US economy being dragged back down into a painful recession.

The FOMC is hoping that the forthcoming data begins to stack up and is in line with their future dot plot for interest rates. However, it would seem prudent for the FOMC to make the market aware that there is room to manoeuvre if the carefully laid plans are derailed by the economic realities.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0951

Target 2: 1.0768

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 1.0875

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4465

Target 2: 1.4212

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0132

Daily control level: 1.4170

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 119.21

Target 2: 117.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.10

Daily control level: 117.60

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0252

Target 2: 1.1008

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.0115

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4262

Target 2: 1.3957

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0171

Daily control level: 1.4335

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7097

Target 2: 0.6944

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.6915

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1133.00

Target 2: 1106.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.66

Daily control level: 1109.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 32.49

Target 2: 29.01

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.09

Daily control level: 29.15

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acfx · Jan 28, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.01.2016

The S&P 500 and Dow30 indices fell more than 1% on the release of the Federal Reserve interest rate decision and statement.

External crises, notably the issue of the ongoing Chinese contraction still weighs heavily on the markets. Furthermore, the markets have to deal with continuing worries about the direction of the price of crude Oil. There are fears that the move of WTI above the US$30.00 level will turn out to be a brief rally and that the downtrend will resume in short order.

In its statement, the Federal moved from its previous position of being in a “wait and see mode” to one where it is “closely monitoring” economic developments. The Federal Reserve reiterated its modest shift in its stance by saying. “The committee is closely monitoring global economic and financial developments and is assessing their implications for the labour market and inflation”.

Although the statement was not as dovish as some market participants would have liked, its change of stance has gone some way to addressing the concerns of investors.

Chairwoman, Janet Yellen and her colleagues on the Federal Reserve have given a nod to investors that global financial and stability issues are being worked into its models for employment and inflation forecasting. However, the drop in the major equity indices would seem to indicate that the FOMC’s action was not enough.

The fall in the indices could be seen as a market over-reaction as it is not obvious what the Federal Reserve could do at the moment other than telling the market that it is monitoring the developing situation from the sidelines and will be ready to act if necessary.

What we did not get yesterday from the FOMC was a surprise increase in the Fed Funds rate. The strong US Dollar has restricted growth and exports and with GDP still below 2%, it was always a very unlikely that the Federal Reserve would move now.

Yesterday’s statement portrays an FOMC that is frustrated by the lack of solid progress that is being made towards a the United States economic lift-off. These concerns will continue to keep the FOMC dependent on what it hopes is an improvement of incoming data.

This could lead to the Federal Reserve playing out a repeat scenario of 2015 where the next interest rate increase when it does happen, will be delayed until the end of this year. This means that the 4 increase dot plot forecast goes out the window.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0966

Target 2: 1.0812

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.0815

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4369

Target 2: 1.4122

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.4170

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 119.55

Target 2: 117.80

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

Daily control level: 117.95

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0230

Target 2: 1.0086

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 1.0115

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4246

Target 2: 1.3945

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0172

Daily control level: 1.4335

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7112

Target 2: 0.6951

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 0.6915

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1132.00

Target 2: 1110.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 14.41

Daily control level: 1114.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 33.95

Target 2: 30.12

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.14

Daily control level: 30.00

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acfx · Jan 29, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.01.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD remains to range this morning, among the recently high market volatility.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0926 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0856, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0827, being the 2nd pivot support level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0974, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.1004, which is the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of today.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new two-week high yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4332 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4271, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4155, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4433, which the 1st pivot resistance of today. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4474, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has breached the uptrend daily target, as BoJ decided to proceed with further monetary easing this morning and cut the interest rate further.

USDJPY needs to hold above 118.73 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 122.00, which is the pair’s next psychological resistance point.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.00 support level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has once again bounced off the top of the downtrend channel after the pair reached a new two-month high yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0138 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0117, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0235, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0136, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. The extension further to 1.0101 could follow next.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to above 1.4032 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4150, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4207, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3942, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has reached a new high of this year.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7071 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7172, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7223 could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7036, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retracing from the two-month high.

Gold needs to break below 1117.35 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1103.00, being the commodity’s 2nd intermediate pivot support level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension towards 1103.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1123.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 33.95 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 31.78, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 31.78, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.60, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection target.

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acfx · Feb 1, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 01.02.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0862 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0905, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1000, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0759, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD continues to range above the recently breached downtrend channel.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4267 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4379, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4115, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY continues to trade higher, following the BoJ decision to raise the interest rate last Friday.

USDJPY needs to hold above 122.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 122.30, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.63, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0203 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0286, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0327, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0164, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

USDCAD needs to above 1.4014 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4145, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4213, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3920, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is retracing after the pair reached a new high of this year last Friday.

AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7093 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7144, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7176 could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7010, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is aiming to retest the two-month high.

Gold needs to hold above 1114.81 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1129.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1131.57, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1109.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to break above 34.30 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 35.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 36.01, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 32.59, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level of today.

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acfx · Feb 2, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 02.02.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel once again, continuing the ranging pattern for the third week in a row.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0870 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0976, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1026, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0824, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily downtrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4268 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4151, which is the 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4528, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is retracing from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

USDJPY needs to break above 121.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 121.55, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 123.84, which is the 2nd pivot resistance, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.83, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is retesting the top of the upward trend channel this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0200 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0261, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0295, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0151, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

USDCAD needs to above 1.3971 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4116, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target. After this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.4190, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3882, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is retesting the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to break above 0.7091 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7091, being the Pivot Point of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7165, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7013, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is aiming to retracing from a two-month high, which the metal reached this morning.

Gold needs to hold below 1124.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1115.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1109.78, which the commodity’s 2nd pivot support level could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1139.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel yesterday.

The commodity needs to hold below 32.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 30.61, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 29.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.00, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today.

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acfx · Feb 3, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 03.02.2016.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD continues to trade higher after the pair bounced off the top of the daily downtrend channel on Monday. The range pattern, nevertheless still remains at place.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.013 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0969, which is the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1002, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today and also coinciding with 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0843, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is making aa new three-month high this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4393 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4544, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4579, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4282, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday. In addition, the pair has also breached the bottom of the uptrend channel this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold below 120.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 118.74, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 118.30, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.27, which is the Pivot Point level of today.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has bounced off the top of the upward trend channel.

USDCHF needs to hold below 1.0191 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0136, being the 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0108, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.0214, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to retrace after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

USDCAD needs to below 1.4023 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3966, being the 1st pivot support level of today. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3925, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4110, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has broken the bottom of the recently formed uptrend channel. The pair is currently trying to reconfirm the breach.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7066 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7004, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6947, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7104, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is remaining to concentrate at the two-month high, which it reached at the beginning of this week.

Gold needs to hold above 1127.27 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1136.00, being today’s 2nd pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1139.00, which the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1115.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is recovering after it has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel on Monday.

The commodity needs to hold above 31.16 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 32.91, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 33.81, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 29.20, being the 2nd pivot support of today.

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acfx · Feb 4, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.02.2016

Bank of England rate decision day

Later today, the Bank of England will announce its interest rate decision. There seems a little possibility that rates will be increased today. In fact, recent comments by the Governor of the Bank of England, Mr Mark Carney have been dovish and market friendly.

Mr Carney has sighted the pessimistic growth global outlook, the collapse in commodity prices and less than encouraging wage and consumer inflation as reasons to put off increasing interest rates in 2016.

Far from being convinced of the inevitability of a rate increase happening once data begins to improve, some market commentators are now openly talking up the merits of the Bank of England reversing course and reducing the Official Bank Rate from its present level of 0.50%.

In today’s Super Thursday statements, the markets will be looking for a change in the mood of the Bank of England’s commentary. Will Mr Mark Carney now move to downgrading the previous projections for wages, employment and inflation? Furthermore, will we see a seismic shock as the markets have to deal with one or more members of the Monetary Policy Committee shifting their stance from hold to negative on interest rates?

The Bank of England does have some room to manoeuvre as the current overnight rate in relative terms is high when compared to say, Eurozone, Japanese, and Swiss interest rates. Therefore, the Bank of England has some way to go before it even has to contemplate moving towards negative rates.

The question however is, will cutting an already low level of interest rates had any real effect other than stoking the fire under the housing bubble. Japanese business has enjoyed low levels of interest cost for a considerable time without any noticeable change investment.

Fiscal measures could be reintroduced as was the case during the great recession of 2008. However, the massive stimulus programmes that were initiated by the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan and Bank of England have not brought the expected results.

The central banks of the world are fast running out of tools which they can use to stimulate their economies. A race to the bottom in a currency war is not a real solution.

It would appear that the coming months will be pivotal for Mr Carney and his counterparts at the US Federal Reserve and European Central Bank. The time is ripe for better solutions rather than more of the same. The problem for the decision makers is that there are no obvious alternatives.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1171

Target 2: 1.1014

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.0900

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4732

Target 2: 1.4436

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0158

Daily control level: 1.4370

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 119.01

Target 2: 116.85

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29

Daily control level: 120.15

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0234

Target 2: 0.9981

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 1.0197

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3915

Target 2: 1.3599

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0187

Daily control level: 1.4110

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7261

Target 2: 0.7081

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 0.7000

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1153.00

Target 2: 1130.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.49

Daily control level: 1121.00

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 33.50

Target 2: 30.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 2.36

Daily control level: 34.50

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acfx · Feb 5, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.02.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD shot higher for the second consecutive day. Due to the NFP release the volatility is expected to be high this afternoon.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1170 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1289, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. the 1st intermediate pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1442, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1000, being the pair’s 2nd pivot support level of today.

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is retracing from a three-week high, which the pair reached yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to break above 1.4594 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4715, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4798, which is the 3rd pivot resistance, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4426, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY continues to retrace from one-month high the pair reached last Friday.

USDJPY needs to hold below 117.17 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 115.60, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 114.40, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 118.88, which is the 2nd pivot resistance of today.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF declined lower after it reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9974 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.98521, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9820, which is the 2nd pivot support level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 1.00027, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD continues to plunge after the pair reached a thirteen-year high last week.

USDCAD needs to below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3570, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3503, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3906, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has bounced off the top of the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7197 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7275, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7333, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7108, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold shot to a three-month high as the USD Dollar weakened further.

Gold needs to hold above 1150.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1166.00, being today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1179.73, which the commodity’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1143.00, which is the metal’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price is retesting the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 32.26 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 32.01, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.54, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 35.12, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today

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acfx · Feb 8, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08-02-2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning EURUSD has traded in a volatile manner as the price action attempts to break out and break down from its opening days range.

The Daily Pivot at the 1.1170 levels has so far offered strong resistance to further upside momentum.

We are this afternoon monitoring a continuation of the move towards S1 at the 1.1088 level.

However, EURUSD first needs to breach the current price structure of the upward pointing Linear Regression Channel

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning GBPUSD initial attempted to break higher from its opening range as the price action traded above its Daily Pivot level at the 1.4509 level.

However, the progression towards the R1 at the 1.4567 did not materialize.

Subsequently, GBPUSD has traded lower as the price action broke back down through the Daily Pivot and sliced through S1 at the 1.4428 level.

This afternoon, we are monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move lower towards the S2 that is found at 1.4370 level.

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDJPY traded higher from the get-go as it moved away from the Daily Pivot level of 116.83.

However, USDJPY found strong resistance at the R1 which is at the 117.39.

Subsequently, USDJPY has reversed course and is now trading under the Daily Pivot.

This afternoon we are monitoring the price action for a possible test of S1 which is found at the 116.24 level.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDCHF has traded around the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.9921 level.

Presently, USDCHF is now testing the R1 at the 0.9962 level and the upper level of the downward sloping linear regression channel.

This afternoon, I am monitoring USDCHF for a continuation of the move towards the 1.0000 significant number which also coincides with today’s Average True Range projection.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning USDCAD has traded in a small range with the price action initially testing the Daily Pivot that is found at the 1.3847 level,

I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a continuation of the move higher.

A breach of the downward sloping linear regression channel could see USDCAD test R1 at is found at the 1.3985 level.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning AUDUSD broke above its opening range bit was not able to sustain a move above the Daily Pivot that is found at the 0.7111 level.

We are however monitoring the price action for a further test of the Daily Pivot as the downward correction failed to trade beneath prior swing lows at the 0.7073 and 0.7052 levels.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold this morning found significant support at the daily Pivot that is located at the 1164.00 level.

The price action has subsequently traded higher as Gold has moved above from the prior day’s high at the 1174.00 level.

I am this afternoon monitoring the price action for a test of R1 at the 1183.00 level.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

This morning Oil attempted to break higher from its opening range but stiff resistance at the Daily Pivot which is found at the 31.30 level repelled this attempt.

Subsequently, Oil has traded lower as the price action broke under S1 at the 30.25 level.

This afternoon, we are monitoring Oil for a possible attempt of S2 that is found at the 29.53 level.

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acfx · Feb 10, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.02.2016

Today at 3:00 PM London time, the Federal Reserve, Chairwoman, Mrs Janet Yellen will give testimony to the House Financial Services Committee on the Semi-annual Monetary Policy Report.

This hearing takes place during uncertain times for both the financial markets and world economy. On Monday, the news that CreditSights In., had questioned the German banking colossus, Deutsche Bank’s ability to pay up on its bond obligations in 2017. This report helped to contribute to a meltdown in global indices values.

Although the senior management of Deutsche Bank was quick to issue statements that denied this analyst report, the damage had already been done. The news that highlighted the potential woes of a bank that is so key to Germany’s and Europe economic future has now put the spotlight back on Europe’s financial system.

The idea that we are about to revisit the dark days of 2008/2009 is a worrying spectre. Especially as confidence in Europe’s periphery is still fragile as Greece and Portugal once again returning back to the media and market spotlight.

Italy continues to struggle as it tries to break from the stranglehold of a deep recession and the move back into patchy growth. We do have news shortly from Istat which will publish the latest Italian Industrial Production number. However, following yesterday’s horrid publication by Destatis on German Industrial Production, the head of the European Central Bank will be looking over his shoulder and will be hoping for some positive news from his homeland.

Back to this afternoon’s event in Washington, Janet Yellen has the decision to take on the tone of the testimony. The FOMC has two key mandates which are to ensure price stability and a healthy employment outlook. Although the to-and-throw of short-term movements in the financial markets should not be of a concern, the Federal Reserve Chairwoman could address this subject during today’s key speech.

Of course, a shift to a dovish tone would undoubtedly go some way in giving comfort to investors who have seen the value of their equity holdings shrink since the beginning of 2016. Especially as the falls in equity value is highlighting the strain within the global banking system.

During today’s testimony, the market will be listening to the weighting that is given to the two key FOMC mandates. If Mrs Yellen sticks to the hawkish line that the labour market is strong and that economic weakness being a short-term phenomenon, them one could expect to see a continued move lower in equity values and the US Dollar gathering some respite.

However, according to market pricing the probability of the Federal Reserve dot plot that has forecast four rate increases during 2016 will just not happen. It would seem that the Federal Reserve will be lucky if it can force one rate hike in December. For sure March interest rate increase looks like it is off the table.

To end, the Italian Industrial Production number has just been reported as -0.7%. The forecast was for an improvement to 0.3%.

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1400

Target 2: 1.1180

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 1.1160

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4630

Target 2: 1.4315

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0160

Daily control level: 1.4370

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 116.55

Target 2: 113.65

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.47

Daily control level: 115.60

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9825

Target 2: 0.9620

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 0.9980

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4040

Target 2: 1.3690

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0176

Daily control level: 1.3980

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7140

Target 2: 0.6995

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

Daily control level: 0.6970

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1204.00

Target 2: 1178.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 15.79

Daily control level: 1185.75

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 30.00

Target 2: 27.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37

Daily control level: 30.75

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acfx · Feb 11, 2016

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.02.2016

EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is trading higher this morning as the US dollar is weakening.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1400, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1498, being 3rd intermediate pivot resistance level of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1170, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today

GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to break below 1.4515 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4360, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4318, which is the 3rd pivot support, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4585, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today

USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has breached the Daily Average True range downside target this morning, as the pair has reached a new one-year low.

USDJPY needs to hold below 113.89 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 110.41, which is the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 110.00, which is the pair’s next major psychological support level, could follow next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.89, which is the Pivot Point of today.

USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF declined to a new two-month low this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9753 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9630, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9578, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9753, being the Pivot Point of today.

USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has recovered slightly this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3914 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.4100, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection target. When this level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.3140, which is the 3rd pivot intermediate resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3829, being the 1st pivot support level of today.

AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is declining lower this morning, after it proved unsuccessful to return trading within the upward trend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7085 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.6990, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.6958, which is the 3rd pivot support level of today, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the downside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7133, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold shot to a new six-month high this morning.

Gold needs to hold above 1191.91 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1132.00, being the pair’s next long term pivot resistance. Should this aim be reached, a further extension to 1255.00, could occur next.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1191.91, which is the metal’s Daily Pivot Point level of today.

OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price has declined to a new three-week low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 29.67 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 27.91, being the 2nd pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 27.01, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 30.31, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.

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