Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 10.03.2016






Today’s session will be marked by the European Central Bank Minimum Bid Rate decision which will be announced at 12:45 pm London time.

The interest rate for the main refinancing operations providing the volume liquidity to the banks has declined to all times low in October 2014 and remains unchanged at 0.05% since then.

The benchmark rate is expected to stay unmoved this time, as deflationary pressures due to the deflated oil price remain, among the others, a heavy toll on the inflation rate in Europe, which is well below 2% target.

Nevertheless, the story is different with the deposit interest rate, which first went negative in June 2014, when ECB adopted a -0.10% level, meaning that banks are now charged with keeping their funds with ECB. Since then further two rate cuts have taken the rate to -0.30%. This time, market participants are pricing in at least 0.1% decrease, with the interest rate, in this case, will be -0.4%.

Short term interest rates are playing a major role in a country’s currency valuation. Hence, a market volatility usually rises during the time of the release.

The importance of this announcement will be amplified by the ECB press conference held at 1:30 pm London time, where additional monetary easing measures are expected to be announced.

The Bank’s primary means to communicate to the investors, the press conference will usually cover factors that affected the current decision including the inflation pace and the overall economic outlook.

During the afternoon trading session, traders will be watching the US unemployment claims data, with the number of individuals who applied for the unemployment insurance during past week forecasted to improve to 272.000 down from 278.000 of the previous release.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1085

Target 2: 1.0910

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.1035





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4350

Target 2: 1.4070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

Daily control level: 1.4170



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.50

Target 2: 112.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

Daily control level: 114.30



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0060

Target 2: 0.9885

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.9895





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3380

Target 2: 1.3110

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0134

Daily control level: 1.3445




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7570

Target 2: 0.7395

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.7400



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1275.00

Target 2: 1229.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82

Daily control level: 1278.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 40.00

Target 2: 36.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.79

Daily control level: 35.95






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.03.2016





The European Central Bank adopted a greater quantitative easing measures than investors were expecting, as yesterday’s monetary policy of the Bank has unveiled.

In addition to fulfilling the expectation that the deposit rate cut to -0.4%, the Central Bank took more drastic measures which included a decision to reduce the interest rate on the main refinancing operations of the Eurosystem to a historic low of 0.0%. At the same time, the marginal lending rate was reduced by 0.25%.

The current bond purchasing programme has also been expanded to 80 billion euros a month starting this April. Furthermore, this time, the investment grade euro-denominated bonds issued by non-bank entities from the euro area will also be added to the list of eligible for purchase assets.

The initial statement sent the Euro lower, however during the press conference, the currency reversed its move with the EURUSD seeing strongest this year’s gains when the pair reached above 1.1200 level last afternoon.

Mr. Draghi’s commented on the course of future monetary policy by saying that no further cuts are being planned for interest rates. “From today’s perspective and taking into account the support of our measures to growth and inflation, we don’t anticipate that it will be necessary to reduce rates further. Of course, new facts can change the situation and the outlook.”

The announcement had a significantly negative impact on the US Dollar index, which declined to below 96.00 level, its month’s lowest.

Gold advanced to 1282.00 level during the yesterday’s trading session, being the metal’s one-year high, as investors are looked for safe havens during times of global economic uncertainty.








EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1285

Target 2: 1.1070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.0820




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4410

Target 2: 1.4150

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.4130



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 114.40

Target 2: 111.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.26

Daily control level: 112.55



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9940

Target 2: 0.9750

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.0090




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3480

Target 2: 1.3200

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

Daily control level: 1.3225



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7540

Target 2: 0.7365

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.7400




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1293.00

Target 2: 1247.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.99

Daily control level: 1237.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 39.75

Target 2: 36.25

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.777

Daily control level: 37.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 14.03.2016







Stock exchanges in the Asia-Pacific Region on Monday showed a positive trend before this week’s meetings of the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve. This supported investors’ optimism caused by the results of the ECB meeting last week, when the bank took a more aggressive approach to support the troubled euro zone economy than initially expected.

This action led markets to hope for a speedy recovery of the euro area and also intensified an increase the demand for risky assets.

Investors’ attention this week is focused on the meetings of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday and the US Federal Reserve’s held on Wednesday. It is anticipated that the Bank of Japan and the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates at the current levels, which are -0.1% and 0.25-0.5% respectively.

For now, the US Dollar remains a centre of attention of market participants this week. Even though the probability of the interest rate hike is next to a zero, traders should not yet discard the possibility for a surprise.

In addition to the standard monetary policy announcement by FOMC, this quarterly event will also present updated economic forecasts and the press conference by the Fed Chairwoman, who is expected to bring more light in the future direction of the US monetary policy.

Last week the US dollar was significantly weakened by the ECB’s policy decision, with the dollar index declining below 96.00 mark. Looking its daily chart, the world’s major reserve currency continues to trade a downtrend scenario, hinting that the uptrend established in the middle of 2014 might be coming to an end.








EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1256

Target 2: 1.1030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.0820



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4507

Target 2: 1.4241

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0133

Daily control level: 1.4130




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 115.11

Target 2: 112.67

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.216

Daily control level: 112.55





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9926

Target 2: 0.9734

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.0090



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3367

Target 2: 1.3083

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

Daily control level: 1.3225




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7642

Target 2: 0.7452

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7400





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1274.70

Target 2: 1225.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.65

Daily control level: 1237.00


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 41.33

Target 2: 38.07

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.629

Daily control level: 37.00








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 15.03.2016








As expected, the Bank of Japan decided to keep the monetary policy unchanged at the meeting this morning. The policymakers, however, warned that current economic conditions remain of concern, hence, will likely become an impediment to reaching the previously set inflation objectives.

“The BOJ is trying hard to reduce the impact that negative rates are having on the financial sector because banks have been very critical of this policy,” commented Hiroaki Muto, an economist at Tokai Tokyo Research Center to the Reuters this morning.

At the moment, he interest rate was left at -0.1%, with the current quantitative easing program remaining at an annual pace of 80 trillion yen money base expansion and ETF buying program intact.

It was also decided to exempt US$90 billion in short-term funds from the negative rates, as concerns from the investment industry suggested that funds could end up in bank deposits.

However, perhaps the biggest surprise to investors was the alteration of the statement language, suggesting that a further progression of the interest rates into negative territory might be coming to an end.

The Japanese yen strengthened against the US dollar, reaching 113.56 this morning after the news were announced. The Nikkei index, on the other hand, weakened, as it was trading almost 1% lower on a day.









EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1210

Target 2: 1.0990

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 1.1070






GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4430

Target 2: 1.4170

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.4250




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 115.00

Target 2: 112.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20

Daily control level: 114.20




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9965

Target 2: 0.9780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 1.0090





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3400

Target 2: 1.3130

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

Daily control level: 1.3405




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7600

Target 2: 0.7400

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 0.7420




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1261.00

Target 2: 1211.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.89

Daily control level: 1262.00


OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 39.00

Target 2: 35.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.68

Daily control level: 39.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.03.2016







This afternoon, the Federal Open Market Committee is due to give it latest interest rate decision. Back on December 15, the FOMC decided to commence a policy change which forecasts interest rates being increased a further four times during 2016. Such a policy shift would lead to the Fed Funds rate increasing to 1.4% by the end of the year.

However, just a few hours before the March meeting and with the state of the domestic economy not convincing many market participants that we are ready for a rate increase, anytime soon it would appear that a rate rise later today is not on the agenda. In light of this, it would seem that time is running out for Chairwoman Yellen to push through and complete a four hike dot plot scenario.

According to latest data, the market has priced in a small probability that interest rates will be increased today by the FOMC from the current 0.50% target. Interestingly, however according to market pricing, the likelihood of a rate hike happening today has grown.

The change in market sentiment and how it views the possible course that the FOMC could take today and during the rest of 2016 is being influenced by a continuation of the strong jobs numbers and what is seen as a more positive economic outlook.

Yellen and her fellow committee members although dependent on data are mindful that their policy decisions should not be viewed to be overly influenced by the most recent financial news release.

Trying to keep the correct balance between market expectations and affecting the market through the application of forward guidance is a difficult task. Notwithstanding this, and due to current developments and the overall positive momentum in the data, it would not be unexpected to see a more hawkish tone being set by the FOMC later today.






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1215

Target 2: 1.0990

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0112

Daily control level: 1.1070



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4285

Target 2: 1.4015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0136

Daily control level: 1.4450




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 114.35

Target 2: 112.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.20

Daily control level: 114.20




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9960

Target 2: 0.9780

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 1.0090




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3480

Target 2: 1.3220

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

Daily control level: 1.3405



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7550

Target 2: 0.7365

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7420



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1256.00

Target 2: 1209.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 23.69

Daily control level: 1262.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 38.25

Target 2: 35.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.58

Daily control level: 39.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 17.03.2016






The US dollar tumbled on the FOMC statement last afternoon when policymakers decided to revise down monetary policy targets, set according to the much-discussed dot plot.

Even though the benchmark interest rate remained unchanged, the promised earlier four rate hikes this year were reduced to two, as the country’s economic growth and inflation expectations were also downgraded.

According to the statement, a risk from the global economic and financial developments persists, with the local jobs market needing some improvements. The US stock market had an edgy start of the year and despite some improvements, still trading downtrend scenario. That could suggest tightening the monetary policy will be too early for now.

Even though Federal Reserve remains flexible with their action and ready to respond whenever it is necessary, it is nevertheless not an option to consider the negative interest rates yet.

The US Dollar Index declined to a one-month low, reaching 95.55 level last afternoon. Oil prices resumed the upward trend, with the WTI trading above 40.80 levels this morning.

Gold reacted positively too, as investors are looking for a safe harbour for their investments. The precious metal returning to trade within recently breached uptrend channel when it reached 1263.75 on the news.

Today, traders’ attention will switch to the interest rate decision and the monetary policy summary by the Bank of England at 12:00 pm London’s time. The rate is expected to stay without changes at 0.5%. Volatility in GBP pairs could be observed.










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1325

Target 2: 1.1100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0114

Daily control level: 1.1050



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4385

Target 2: 1.4115

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0139

Daily control level: 1.4450






USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 113.90

Target 2: 111.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.24

Daily control level: 113.85




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9870

Target 2: 0.9685

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 0.9920





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3265

Target 2: 1.2965

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0149

Daily control level: 1.3405



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7660

Target 2: 0.7460

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 0.7420




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1285.00

Target 2: 1236.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.51

Daily control level: 1225.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 40.15

Target 2: 37.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62

Daily control level: 36.00






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 18.03.2016






The US dollar declined on the overly dovish FOMC statement this Wednesday. The move lower resulted in a break of the ten-month uptrend channel and could be an important sign for the future direction of the world’s major reserve currency. The decline followed the last week’s plunge as a reaction to the European Central Bank’s policy and is a strongest decline of the currency within the last two years.

Despite concerns, analysts believe that it is still unlikely that the US dollar will simply collapse against its major counterparts. This is due to the relative strength of the US economy in comparison with conditions in the rest of the world.

In the wake of the cautious Fed stance gold has reclaimed the upside momentum with the metal currently trading above the 1260.00 mark. Gold has always been considered investor’s safe harbour, it is logical that we are now seeing the increased demand for the metal among such a vast uncertainty in the world’s markets.

Surprisingly, the oil has also joined the best market performers’ league, as it reached a new 2016 high this morning. Looking at the commodity’s 4-hour chart, it might be still too early to get excited about the long-term change of direction. Taking the WTI as an example, the commodity is still trading below the recently breached uptrend channel and needs to return to its limits so more bullish bets could be made.









EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1430

Target 2: 1.1195

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 1.1050



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4625

Target 2: 1.4325

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

Daily control level: 1.4215





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 112.70

Target 2: 110.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.29

Daily control level: 113.85



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9765

Target 2: 0.9570

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 0.9920



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3135

Target 2: 1.2830

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0153

Daily control level: 1.3405



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7740

Target 2: 0.7515

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 0.7420



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1281.00

Target 2: 1233.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.01

Daily control level: 1225.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 41.80

Target 2: 38.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62

Daily control level: 38.65






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.03.2016







The Gold market demonstrated a downward momentum as investors engaged in profit-taking. The metal has been appreciating in value since the middle of December 2015, but this month it showed signs of stagnation, hinting that a move further up might come to a halt. This morning the metal was trading at US$ 1240.49, versus US$ 1270.76 high of last week.

By looking at the technical indicators, we can see that the Gold price has breached the 4 hours uptrend channel last Monday. Also, it failed an attempt to return to the channel limits by the end of the week, which could be another sign that the metal might retrace.

The edging down in the precious metal’s price also coincided with a recovery in the US dollar value by the close of the Friday’s trading session, as both products historically have a negative correlation.

The recent events have shown that the US and European Central Banks are inclined towards the keeping the monetary easing measures for longer as the corresponding economies still have a hard time to recover. Nevertheless, some analysts believe, there are considerably fewer policy tools left to implement. Hence, this could support the new downturn bias in gold.

Oil prices also retraced as well since last Friday. The commodity reached a new high of this year and WTI surpassing a US$ 42.50 mark. The next critical level and support of US$ 40.00 are also a downside target, which the oil could retest before deciding on the move further.









EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1385

Target 2: 1.1150

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

Daily control level: 1.1250




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4610

Target 2: 1.4310

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0151

Daily control level: 1.4400




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 112.70

Target 2: 110.35

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.18

Daily control level: 113.85



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9790

Target 2: 0.9600

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 0.9920




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3175

Target 2: 1.2870

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

Daily control level: 1.2915




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7695

Target 2: 0.7490

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 0.7420




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1278.00

Target 2: 1230.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 24.2

Daily control level: 1225.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 40.70

Target 2: 37.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.66

Daily control level: 41.25





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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 22.03.2016







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has been trading in a corrective downtrend since Friday.

However, this morning an acceleration of the move lower occurred following the rejection of the Daily Pivot (1.1252).

EURUSD has subsequently traded down to S2 (1.1197) which coincides with the 50% Fibonacci support level.

Bounce off S2 could see EURUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to hold above S2 could see EURUSD trade down to S3 (1.1167) which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci support level.




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has been trading in a corrective downtrend since Monday.

However, this morning an acceleration of the move lower occurred following the rejection of the Daily Pivot (1.4399).

GBPUSD has subsequently sliced through S2 (1.4297) which coincides with the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci support level area.

Support within this support area could lead to the price action trading back above S2 and possibly S1 (1.4332).

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above S2 could see GBPUSD trade down to S3 (1.4229)



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has been trading in a corrective uptrend since Friday.

However, this morning a resumption of the downtrend has occurred following a rejection of R1 (112.21).

USDJPY has subsequently sliced through the Daily Pivot (111.71) and tested and bounced off S1 (111.45)

Support within this support area could lead to the price action trading back above the Daily Pivot and possibly R1.

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above the Daily Pivot could see USDJPY re-test S1





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has been trading in a corrective uptrend since Friday.

During the morning USDCHF has attempted to re-test yesterday’s high and today’s R1 level (0.9731)

A breach of R1 could lead to a continuation of the move higher that sees USDCHF test R2 (0.9758) and the upper level of the down channel.

Alternatively, a failure of the price action to trade above the R1 could see USDCHF re-test the Daily Pivot.




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has experienced a volatile morning session as traders wait for the outcome of Canadian Government’s Annual Budget Statement.

This volatility initially led to a test of the Daily Pivot (1.3072) and then a spike that was however rejected at R1 (1.3127).

Market uncertainty could continue in the lead up to tonight’s major event.

Before the release of the budget statement moves above R1 and below S1 (1.3043) could be seen as potential fading opportunities




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has experienced a volatile morning session as traders digest the Reserve Bank of Australia Governor upbeat assessment of the Australian economy.

This volatility initially led to a broad trading range with both R1 (0.7614) and S1 (.0.7556) being tested.

As AUDUSD has now initially rejected the 50% Fibonacci support level a resumption of the prior uptrend could see AUDUSD re-test R1.

Alternatively, a failure to hold above S1 could lead to the price action trading down to the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.7515).




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning XAUUSD has resumed its uptrend following a bounce off the 50% to 61.8% Fibonacci support area.

The move higher sliced through R1 (1252.56) but failed to reach R2 (1261.65) as the price action found resistance at a prior weekly swing level (1260.00)

A continuation of the uptrend could see Gold retest the 1260.00 level and then R2).

Alternatively, a failure to hold above the Daily Pivot (1246.50) could lead to the price action trading back down into the 61.8% Fibonacci support area.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has experienced a two day down trend. However, lower prices were yesterday rejected at S1 (40.70),

This morning Oil has traded within a tight range at the highs of yesterday’s price action and above today’s Daily Pivot (41.25).

A continuation of the uptrend could see Oil test the R1 (42.10)

Alternatively, a failure to hold above the Daily Pivot could lead to the price action trading down S1 (40.74)





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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 23.03.2016







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has breached the uptrend channel, and is now heading to retest the bottom of the daily channel.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.1220 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.1148, which is the 2nd pivot support level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1100, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today.




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is heading to retest the bottom of the daily uptrend channel after it was unable to support the move higher.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4266 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4135, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4065, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4342, which is 1st pivot resistance of today.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is retesting the top of the downtrend channel.

USDJPY needs to hold above 112.07 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 113.20, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 113.50, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 111.67, which today’s 1st pivot resistance level.



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel. In addition, the pair is looking to reconfirm the breach of the daily uptrend channel.

USDCHF needs to break below 0.9716 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9698, being the pair’s 1st intermediate pivot support. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9668, which is the 2nd pivot support of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9795, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance of today.



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has breached the bottom of the downtrend channel and today is looking to reconfirm it.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3069 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3000, being the next key level together with 1st pivot support of today. After the level is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3195, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is consolidating above the recently breached uptrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7602 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7654, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7710, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection level, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7520, being the Daily Average True Range downside projection level of today.



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel as the US dollar has gained strength.

Gold needs to hold below 1250.12 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1222.39, being the 3rd pivot support of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1211.93, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1250.15, which is the commodity’s pivot point of today.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil is retesting the bottom of the newly created extension of the uptrend channel.

The commodity needs to break above 40.70 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 41.97, being 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 42.70, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 40.35, being the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 24.03.2016




This morning will begin with the monthly report on the UK Retail Sales at 9:30 a.m. London time, released by the Office for National Statistics.

The Retail Sales indicator tracks a change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level. As the consumer spending constitutes the majority of a country’s economic activity, the announcement will likely to cause a volatility of the GBP pairs.

The change in the inflation-adjusted sales is forecasted to decline to -0.7%, after the 2.3% improvement in the February’s release. As British Pound continues to weaken, the figures lower than expected could put downward pressure.

Following that the weekly US Unemployment Claims data will come into the spotlight at 1:30 p.m. London time. Also known as Jobless Claims, the indicator represents a measure of completed unemployment insurance forms that were submitted by individuals for the first time within a previous week.

Initial jobless claims have a big impact on financial markets because it shows a new and emerging unemployment and provides a gauge of strength in the US labour market. As employment figures and consumer spending are directly correlated, the statistics give an overview of the US economic activity.

The forecasted value for today’s release stands at 267.000, with the expected increase from the previous 265.000 number.

At the same time, traders will be on the lookout for the US the monthly Core Durable Goods Orders report, which usually has a high impact on the FOREX market.

This report measures the change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with domestic manufacturers for delivery of durable goods, excluding transportation items. The value for the previous period was published as 1.8% while the forecast for this reporting period is -0.2%.











EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1285

Target 2: 1.1070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.1260




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4260

Target 2: 1.3970

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0147

Daily control level: 1.4400




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 113.50

Target 2: 111.20

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14

Daily control level: 112.20




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9840

Target 2: 0.9660

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 0.9670




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3355

Target 2: 1.3050

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0152

Daily control level: 1.3020




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7630

Target 2: 0.7435

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 0.7650




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1243.00

Target 2: 1198.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.82

Daily control level: 1260.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 41.25

Target 2: 38.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.62

Daily control level: 42.60







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 25.03.2016







This afternoon at 12:30 pm London the Bureau of Economic Analysis publishes its latest Final GDP report.

This report measures the annualized increase or decrease of all production which includes services that the US economy producers.

This report is produced on the quarterly basis and is released some 85 days after the quarter ends.

GDP data is released in three different versions being the Preliminary, Final and Advance GDP numbers. Of the three data sets, the Advanced GDP is the most followed as it is the earliest release and therefore usually has the greatest effect.

GDP data is an important measure of countries economic wellbeing as a productive activity. Expanding or contraction productivity can be used as an early barometer which measures expanding or contracting economic activity.

The prior GDP release showed indicated an expansion of 1.0% with the market consensus expecting today’s number to be unchanged.

In general, a GDP release that is greater than the forecast should lead to an appreciation of the US Dollar.









EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1285

Target 2: 1.1070

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 1.1260



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4300

Target 2: 1.4005

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146

Daily control level: 1.4400




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 113.95

Target 2: 111.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.14

Daily control level: 112.35



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9845

Target 2: 0.9670

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0088

Daily control level: 0.9735




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3390

Target 2: 1.3090

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

Daily control level: 1.3020




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7615

Target 2: 0.7425

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 0.7650










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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.03.2016






Today the Easter bank holidays carries on in many European countries, among which are France, Germany and Italy. Hence, the morning trading session is promising to be quiet.

Observing the markets, the Japanese Yen was the major underperformer this morning, when USDJPY reached 113.68 high. This action was mainly due to the stronger Nikkei 225 index, which undermined demand for the low-risk currency.

Oil price continued to rebound from the last week lows and is heading for a second straight monthly gain. Thus, Brent oil was trading at US$ 41.55 this morning, whereas WTI extended to US$ 40.36. That could probably decrease the expectations that Saudi Arabia, the major oil exporter, would abandon it currency peg to the US Dollar, which is in place since 1986.

Looking forward to the afternoon session the US Personal Consumption Expenditure will be released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis at 1:30 pm London time. The data representing the amount of goods and services consumed by individuals in the month of February, this time, is expected to decline to 0.2% after it showed 0.3% increase last month.

At the same time, the US personal spending numbers will also be published. The previous results of the change in inflation-adjusted value of consumer expenditures showed 0.5% increase, whereas expectations for today’s data stand at 0.2%

Pending home sales will round up this news day at 3:00 pm. The data shows a change in the number of homes, which are still awaiting to be sold but already having a contract transaction and is forecasted to improve to 1.2%, up from -2.5% of last time.

Should US data come better than expected that could boost the recovery of the US currency? The US Dollar has opened this week with the gap up extending to 96.40 mark, which is the currency’s six- week high.












EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1265

Target 2: 1.1065

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0103

Daily control level: 1.1190



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4265

Target 2: 1.3985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0141

Daily control level: 1.4185



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 114.25

Target 2: 112.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.11

Daily control level: 112.35




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9850

Target 2: 0.9680

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.9735




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3415

Target 2: 1.3125

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

Daily control level: 1.3020



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7600

Target 2: 0.7420

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.7540




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1238.00

Target 2: 1194.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.45

Daily control level: 1224.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 41.35

Target 2: 38.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.45

Daily control level: 42.00








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 29.03.2016







The US Dollar is trading higher this morning as traders await a speech by Federal Reserve Chairwoman later this afternoon. As always, Janet Yellen’s presentation will be closely scrutinized by the market participants, who will look for clues regarding the Fed’s future monetary policy.

On the March 16, the FOMC delivered a statement, which gave a dovish message to the markets as it reduced the projected amount of interest rate increases for 2016. This action will likely lead to a lower dollar and expected to boost the US economy.

The shift towards a policy that seeks to devalue the US currency was highlighted by FOMC Chairwoman’s message to the worlds gathered press that US Dollar strength transitory. Although this term was used this was the first time it was applied in regards to the Dollar’s value.

The main goals of the policymakers are the price stability and a healthy US job market. Nevertheless, a weaker US Dollar policy is welcomed by the global markets as this could lead to price stability and less deflation there too. Furthermore, the policy of deliberately weakening the US Dollar could act as a spur for growth both within the USA and across the globe..










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1295

Target 2: 1.1095

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.1140




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4400

Target 2: 1.4105

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0150

Daily control level: 1.4105





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 114.45

Target 2: 112.40

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

Daily control level: 113.10





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9815

Target 2: 0.9650

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 0.9790








USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3320

Target 2: 1.3050

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0137

Daily control level: 1.3020







AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7630

Target 2: 0.7450

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 0.7490






GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1243.00

Target 2: 1199.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 22.07

Daily control level: 1224.00







OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 40.70

Target 2: 37.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.39

Daily control level: 40.15








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 30.03.2016






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has bounced off the bottom of the daily uptrend channel as investors hopes regarding the US rate hikes are fading after the yesterday’s speech of Janet Yellen.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.1253 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1370, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension to 1.1430, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1253, being the pair’s pivot point of today.




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the newly created uptrend channel.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4326 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.4496, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, the extend to 1.4530, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection of today, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4248, which is pair’s 1st pivot support level.




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY plummeted lower as the US dollar is weakening.

USDJPY needs to hold below 113.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 111.83, being the 2nd pivot support. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 111.60, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today, could take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 113.02, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.






USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is dropped lower on the dovish speech of Janet Yellen made yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9693 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9600, being the pair’s next key level together with the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 0.9554, which is the 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9700.




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is testing the bottom of the downtrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3112 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.2935, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection of today. After the target is reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.2895, which is 3rd intermediate pivot support of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3112, which is the pair’s pivot point of today.





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has reached a nine-months high this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7593 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7715, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7770, could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7593, being the pivot point of today.







GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold is trading within the newly created downward trend channel, bouncing off the bottom off it.

Gold needs to hold above 1217.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1225.84, being the 2nd intermediate pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1138.00, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1206.32, which is the commodity’s 2nd pivot support of today.





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil is has bounced off the bottom of the uptrend channel and is trading higher this morning.

The commodity needs to hold above 39.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 40.94, being the 2nd pivot resistance of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 41.35, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the upside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 39.00, being the commodity’s next key level.







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 01.04.2016







The beginning of the week started with heightened event risk when last Tuesday the Federal Reserve Charwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen spoke about the Economic Outlook of the US and global economy during a talk given to the Economic Club of New York.

This speech was extremely dovish on the prospect of future interest rate increases when Yellen spoke of the need for a stabilization of foreign economies and markets and the impact of the strong US Dollar.

This week will end how it began with today’s New York session preceded by the monthly Jobs Report which is due to be announced at 1:30 PM London time. The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the Jobs Report, which is made up of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases.

Although all three reports are important as together they give a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market, the Non-Farm Payrolls number always receives the lion’s share of the attention.

In a prelude to this afternoon’s data releases, yesterday, the US Department of Labor published the missing piece of the Jobs Report picture when it announced the Unemployment Claims data. Unemployment Claims had been in steady decline since they hit a peak during the time when the great recession ravaged the United States and global economy.

As unemployment claims are published on a weekly basis, there is a lot of data points to consider however the downtrend in this number does support the good overall picture that we have seen in the monthly release of the Jobs Report. The prior week’s announcement was 265K, and the consensus view was that there would be a slight increase in claimants with a rise to 266K. Yesterday’s actual number was 276K.

Back to today’s releases, the markets are expecting the NFP number to be reported at around the 206K level which would be well below the prior month’s 242K. It should be noted that the actual NFP number published has tended to ignore analysts assessments in recent months. Therefore trying to glean anything from such forecasts would seem to have little value.

The Unemployment Rate report has also indicated that there is strength in the US employment market as the amount of those seeking employment has dropped from over 10% back in 2009 to 4.9% that was reported in the March publication. As the rate of unemployment is now so small, it would be tough for the NFP numbers to continually show such strength as fewer and fewer citizens are now looking for work.

Which brings us to the final part of the Jobs Report, which is, of course, the Average Hourly Earnings release. It is to be expected that businesses would begin to increase salaries offered as a means to retain and recruit employees? However, although the Average Hourly Earnings number have only on the occasional month indicated that wages are in fact increasing, there have been other months such as the March publication which were very disappointing.

We end where we started with Janet Yellen at the FOMC and the dual mandate of price stability and a healthy jobs market. The Federal Reserve is dependent on data, therefore, although it would like to see continued strength in the Jobs Report numbers, its will be hoping that the Average Hourly Earnings numbers begin to move in line with the rest of this publication.








EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1455

Target 2: 1.1300

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 1.1305





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4520

Target 2: 1.4230

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0145

Daily control level: 1.4315




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 113.50

Target 2: 111.55

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.99

Daily control level: 112.70




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9685

Target 2: 0.9545

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0071

Daily control level: 0.9665




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3145

Target 2: 1.2860

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

Daily control level: 1.3215



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7745

Target 2: 0.7585

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0091

Daily control level: 0.7630




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1252.00

Target 2: 1212.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 20.00

Daily control level: 1222.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 39.55

Target 2: 36.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

Daily control level: 39.85







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 04.04.2016







Last week ended with highly anticipated Jobs report from the United States. The data, consisting of the Average Hourly Earnings, Unemployment Rate, and Non-Farm Employment Change releases, gives a complete picture of the state of the United States employment market.

The Non-Farm Payroll release, representing a change in the number of employed people during the previous month apart from farming industry, has positively surprised investors with growth to 215.000 working places compared to 206.000 expected. The number has however declined in parallel with the March results of 245.000.

The next component of the Jobs report, presented to the markets by the Average Hourly Earnings, also did well as it showed an upturn of 0.3%. Keeping in mind that the previous month results were -0.1%, and market consensus expected just 0.2% number, this outcome was quite outstanding.

The Unemployment rate announcement, however, calmed down the excitement, revealing a rise to 5.0%, which was the first expansion since the June last year. That could probably explain that the US dollar stayed unaffected to usually such a significant release, with the US dollar index remaining to trade around 94.50 mark, being its five-month low.

Proceeding to this trading week, it began with the news from Australia. Here, the monthly building approvals number has indicated a significant rise to 3.1% from -6.6% of the March outcome. The retail sales dropped to from 0.3% to 0.0% this month. The AUDUSD nevertheless remained trading at its nine-month high.

Later on, at 9:30 am London time the UK monthly Construction PMI data will come into the spotlight. The indicator of the economic health of the construction industry, this time, is expected to increase slightly to 54.3, up from 54.2 of last time. The number higher than forecasted could likely give support to the weakening British Pound.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1455

Target 2: 1.1330

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0084

Daily control level: 1.1330




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4365

Target 2: 1.4075

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0146

Daily control level: 1.4425




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 112.50

Target 2: 110.65

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.95

Daily control level: 112.70





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9640

Target 2: 0.9495

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0073

Daily control level: 0.9665




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3175

Target 2: 1.2890

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0142

Daily control level: 1.2850




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7760

Target 2: 0.7575

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0092

Daily control level: 0.7725





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1252.00

Target 2: 1212.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 19.74

Daily control level: 1222.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 38.00

Target 2: 35.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.44

Daily control level: 39.00







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 05.04.2016






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning’s trading saw EURUSD test the 1.1355 line of control.

A penetration of the 1.1375 level would correspond to a breach of the last isolated high of this morning’s session.

Such an event could see EURUSD test the Daily Pivot (1.1385) and R1 (1.1414).

Alternatively, a sustained breached of the 1.1355 level could see EURUSD test S2 (1.1330)





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

This morning GBPUSD broke down from its Daily Pivot (1.4258) and the 1.4250 support level.

The price continued its downward course and is now testing S1 (1.4195).

A continuation of the move lower could see GBPUSD test a prior weekly support level (1.4150) and S2 (1.4127).

Alternatively, a failure to sustain a move below S1 could see GBPUSD trade back up to the Daily Pivot.







USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has traded lower for most of the day.

However, a bounce has occurred off S3 (110.31).

A continuation of the correction could see USDJPY trade through both S2 (110.69) and S1 (111.00).

Alternatively, a resumption of the downtrend could see S3 retested.




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

This morning, USDCHF has traded within a small range around the Daily Pivot (0.9588).

A breach of R1 (0.9609) or S1 (0.9562) could offer some guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has experienced a strong up-day that has brought the price action to touching distance of R3 (1.3200).

A continuation of the move higher, however, could run out of upside momentum as the price action has come close to exhausting the upper limit of its average true range (1.3210).





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has experienced a volatile session with the price action initially testing S1 (0.7575) and then the Daily Pivot (0.7626).

The Daily Pivot, however, was rejected, and this led to a freefall in AUDUSD that sent the price action crashing through S2 (0.7546).

A continuation of the move lower, however, could run out of downside momentum as the price action tests the lower level of today’s average true range (0.7515)






GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold this morning has broken higher as the price action has reversed its three day’s down trend.

Having slashed through R1, R2 and R3 Gold is now testing the upper ATR boundary of 1235.00.








OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has experienced a quiet day as the price action trades at the bottom of a recent downtrend.

A breach of the Daily Pivot (36.00) or S1 (34.84) could offer guidance on the afternoon direction in prices.








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 06.04.2016







Today at 19:00 pm London time the FOMC minutes for the last meeting will be published. The release could likely put a further downward pressure on the US currency.

The US Dollar continues to decline as the Federal Reserve’s earlier promises were not matched to the actions. The last FOMC meeting held in March also disappointed investors after it decided to take a significantly more dovish stance than the one it undertook in December.

At the last speech, the Fed chairwoman underlined the caution with changes to the monetary policy being considered. The patient approach pushed the dollar downwards, with its index is now trading below 95.00 level, being its five-month low.

The earlier promised four rate hikes in 2016 are now changed to a mere two, and even these are not guaranteed. As the CME Fed Watch Tool shows, the chances that the Fed will increase interest rates in September are around 40% at the moment.

Furthermore, investors give just 18% a chance to the hawkish actions of the Fed in June and 57% in December. Nevertheless, keeping in mind the last speech of Janet Yellen, the future policy will be much more accommodative to the state of the domestic economy, which is represented by the inflation rate and jobs market. The global circumstances will also continue to be observed.

At the moment, the cheap dollar could actually be of a benefit to the US economy as the local production will be supported. Also, that is the way to keep the cost of the domestic debt at affordable levels, which is imperative to the world’s largest economy.





EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1450

Target 2: 1.1310

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0070

Daily control level: 1.1400




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4290

Target 2: 1.4030

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0131

Daily control level: 1.4320




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 111.15

Target 2: 109.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.82

Daily control level: 111.75




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9615

Target 2: 0.9500

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0059

Daily control level: 0.9605




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3255

Target 2: 1.3015

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0122

Daily control level: 1.2995





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7625

Target 2: 0.7455

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7725




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1250.00

Target 2: 1213.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 18.21

Daily control level: 1214.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 38.00

Target 2: 35.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.43

Daily control level: 37.25








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.04.2016










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Daily Pivot : 1.1384

S1 : 1.1338

S2 : 1.1279

S3 : 1.1233

R1 : 1.1443

R2 : 1.1489

R3 : 1.1548





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Daily Pivot : 1.4099

S1 : 1.4027

S2 : 1.3933

S3 : 1.3862

R1 : 1.4193

R2 : 1.4264

R3 : 1.4358




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Daily Pivot : 109.90

S1 : 109.18

S2 : 108.59

S3 : 107.86

R1 : 110.49

R2 : 111.22

R3 : 111.81






USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Daily Pivot : 0.9569

S1 : 0.9517

S2 : 0.9477

S3 : 0.9425

R1 : 0.9609

R2 : 0.9661

R3 : 0.9701






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Daily Pivot : 1.3111

S1 : 1.3037

S2 : 1.2987

S3 : 1.2912

R1 : 1.3161

R2 : 1.3236

R3 : 1.3286






AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Daily Pivot : 0.7583

S1 : 0.7547

S2 : 0.7496

S3 : 0.7460

R1 : 0.7634

R2 : 0.7669

R3 : 0.7720







GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Daily Pivot : 1223.00

S1 : 1215.00

S2 : 1208.00

S3 : 1200.00

R1 : 1230.00

R2 : 1239.00

R3 : 1245.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Daily Pivot : 37.32

S1 : 36.78

S2 : 35.87

S3 : 35.33

R1 : 38.23

R2 : 38.77

R3 : 39.68







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