Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 11.12.2015







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is trading within upward trending channel amid the US Dollar weakness ahead of the FOMC meeting next week.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0927 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1011, which is 1st pivot resistance of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1047 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0901, being the pair’s 1st suport level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0831, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the upward trending channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.5156 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.5203, being today’s 1st pivot resistance level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5261, which is the Daily Average True Range upside projection could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5088, which is the pair’s 2nd intermediate support of today. Following that, the price could move to 1.5049, being the Daily Average True Range downside aim.




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.

USDJPY needs to break below the 121.55 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the downtrend scenario.

The initial downside target is 121.23, which is the 1st pivot support line of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.78, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range downside target, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 122.31. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 122.48, being the pair’s 3rd resistance level of today, could occur.





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached yesterday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9870 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9810, being the 2nd intermediate pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9767, being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9975, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has reconfirmed the breach of the uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold below 0.7278 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target for this afternoon will be 0.7204, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7165 could likely to be seen following that.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7278, being the pair’s pivot point of today.





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold declined lower this morning, bouncing off the newly formed downtrend channel.

The commodity needs to hold below 1072.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1056.31, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1072.25, which is the pivot point of the pair for today. Following that, a move higher to 1075.27, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance point and coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel, could occur next.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil has reached a new six-year low this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 38.11 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 36.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.50, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today






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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 14.12.2015














EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has created a new lower high at the end of the last trading session.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0978 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0926, which is 1st pivot support of the pair. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0873 being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.1030, being the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.1095, which is the Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5185 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5122, being today’s 1st pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range upside projection level. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5071, which is today’s 2nd pivot support, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5215 which is the pair’s 1st intermediate resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5246, being the 1st pivot resistance level of today.







USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY has bounced off the upper limit of the average Daily Average True Range.

USDJPY needs to break above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 121.90, which being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 122.90, is the 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.21, which is the Daily Average True Range downside target of the pair. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.60, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.







USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF is consolidating above the downward trending channel, which the pair breached last Thursday.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9784, being the 1st pivot support of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9726 being the daily Average True Range downside projection level.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9944, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD has breached the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3597 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3772, being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3597, which is the pair’s pivot point of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3530, being the daily Average True Range downside projection.






AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has breached the recently formed uptrend channel this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7215 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7279, being the Average True Range upside projection of today. Further extend to the previous high of 0.7317, being the 2nd resistance level of today could likely to be seen following.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7149, being the pair’s 1st support level of today.







GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold has bounced off the top of the newly created downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 1071.79 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1057.59, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1076.76, which is the 1st intermediate pivot point of the pair for today and also coinciding with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, a move higher to 1081.72, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level, could occur next.






OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil declines to the new lows this morning, the levels last seen since 2009.

The commodity needs to hold below 37.15 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 36.06, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that target be reached, a following move to 35.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level, could follow next.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.79, being the commodity’s 1st pivot resistance level of today.







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 15.12.2015











EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD is slowing down ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC statement

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0994 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1103, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1146, which is 3rd pivot resistance of the pair, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0940, being the pair’s 1st support level of today and also coinciding with the bottom of the uptrend channel. In case this scenario will be activated, the pair could prolong its move to 0.0881, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.






GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has bounced off the top of the daily uptrend channel yesterday, continuing with a move lower this morning.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.5158 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.5087, being today’s 1st pivot support. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.5029, which is today’s 2nd pivot support together with the Daily Average True Range downside projection level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.5210 which is the pair’s 1st resistance of today, and also coincides with the top of the downward trend channel. Following that, the price could move to 1.5251, being the Daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is consolidating at six-week low this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above the 121.25 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 121.47, which is the pair’s 1st resistance level of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 121.86, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside target and also 2nd pivot resistance line, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 120.45, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection of the pair. In case this scenario will be activated, further extension to 119.89, being the pair’s 2nd support level of today, could occur next.







USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continue to consolidate, after it breached the downward channel last week.

USDCHF needs to hold above 0.9841 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 0.9885, being the 1st pivot resistance of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9950 being the daily Average True Range upside projection level of today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 0.9736, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retesting to return trading within the limits of the uptrend channel this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.3729 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.3716, being the Average True Range downside projection of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.3573, being the pair’s 3rd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3782, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today and also coincides with the pair’s eleven-year high. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3831, being the daily Average True Range upside projection.







AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD is returning to retest the top of the recently formed downtrend channel.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7226level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7287, being the 1st resistance level of today. An additional extend to 0.7323, the Average True Range upside projection of today, could likely to be seen following.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7176, being the pair’s 1st support level of today, which also approximately coincides with the Average True Range downside projection level.





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold has shot higher this morning, after the metal once again reached two-week low in the overnight trade.

The commodity needs to hold above 1065.28 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1072.00, which is the pairs 1st pivot resistance level of today. Should this aim be reached, Gold could extend towards 1075.45, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level.

If the metal fails to maintain the upward momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1053.20, which is the 1st pivot support of the pair for today. Following that, a move lower to 1046.49, being the commodity’s 2nd support level, could occur next.








OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil is recovering this morning after it reached new 2009 lows during the previous trading session.

The commodity needs to hold above 37.03 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 38.92, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level. Should that target be reached, a move to 40.03, being the 3rd pivot resistance level could follow next.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 37.03, being the commodity’s pivot point of today.





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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 16.12.2015





The most momentous United States interest rate decision in almost a decade is less than 12 hours away.

It can be said with some justification that the Federal Reserve has communicated poorly its intentions to the markets and somewhat painted itself into a corner.

It would now be an extraordinary reversal if the FOMC does not increase the Fed Funds rate this evening.

Central Banks usually hike interest rates to cool off an overheating economy. However, although the US economy is showing positive signs the recovery has been patchy and does not encompass the whole country.

Inflation is not really a problem at the moment. In fact, plunging commodity prices as seen by the continued fall in the value of crude oil over the past week could actually hold back the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target being met.

We can add to this cocktail, the prospect of deflation being imported into the US economy. This is due to the current easing stance of both the Peoples Bank of China and the European Central Bank.

For all of these reasons, one can understand why many analysts and even some members of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee are questioning the merits of increasing interest rates today.

The foreign exchange markets tell their own story with its recent appreciation of EURUSD coming to an abrupt halt.

The markets have had time to digest the disappointing lack of action taken by the European Central Bank and its failure to increase as promised the stimulus to the Euro-Area’s flagging economy.

With currency traders having worked through last ECB announcement, the apparent topping formation in EURUSD would appear to be a sign that the markets are assuming that we will see an increase in the Fed Funds interest rate by 25 basis points.

A Fed Funds rate increase will only tell us half the story as there is real uncertainty over what shape the trajectory of future interest rate increases will look like in 2016.

Therefore, what is important to glean from today’s statement is the pace of future interest rate increases.

A dovish hike would see at the most two further rate hikes during 2016. Whereas a hawkish surprise could see as many as four rate hikes being announced by the FOMC during the course of next year.

I doubt very much that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Mrs. Janet Yellen will be so kind to give the markets exact numbers tomorrow on the amount and frequency of interest rate decisions for 2016. However, I would hope that the tone of the announcement to give us some strong clues.

I expect that this evening, the FOMC will give us a dovish hike. The reason for this is that the Federal Reserve is scared that it would be blamed that a hawkish surprise would derail the markets.

An over hawkish message will see the US Dollar race higher as both bonds and equities will get crushed.

The logical policy for the FOMC to take would raise interest rates a little now and then commit to tightening further as and when conditions allow it to do so.















EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1050

Target 2: 1.0810

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

Daily control level: 1.1060



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5155

Target 2: 1.4920

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0116

Daily control level: 1.5185




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 122.55

Target 2: 120.75

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.91

Daily control level: 120.55




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0020

Target 2: 0.9800

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 0.9795




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3835

Target 2: 1.3630

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0102

Daily control level: 1.3780




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7275

Target 2: 0.7100

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 0.7285




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1077.00

Target 2: 1044.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.12

Daily control level: 1079.50




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 39.00

Target 2: 36.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.61

Daily control level: 37.25








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 18.12.2015







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.

This morning, the EURUSD has bounced off the 1.0800 which coincided with a prior weekly pivot level.

Although EURUSD did appreciate for most of the morning the rally could not be sustained and the price action threatens once again to test the 1.0800 during the New York session.

If the 1.0800 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0700 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0800 could see EURUSD test the 1.0900 resistance level and the 1.0950 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.1015 level. However due to the developing price action, a breach of the 1.0870 which is the most recent swing high would be sufficient to change the trend from down to up. Such a move would also signal a break of the current three-day downward sloping channel.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD, Thursday continued to sell off following a well-received Federal Reserve announcement that it was increasing interest rates.

This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.

If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.5000 level and then the 1.5025 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A breach of the 1.5015 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

Alternatively, a failure to sustain high prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4900, 1.4850, 1.4800 and the 1.4775 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.







USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY, Thursday has experienced a volatile trade as the market digests conflicting news from the Bank of Japan.

USDJPY initially attempted to break up from its opening range. However, this move could not be sustained as the rally fell short of the 123.55 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

The price action has subsequently traded lower as USDJPY broke down from its opening range and within a few hours breached both the 121.55 and 121.35 levels.

As the latter level corresponds to today’s line of control the trend has change from up to down.

However, after such an aggressive move lower the possibility of USDJPY experiencing a corrective bounce as traders square up positions and take profits before the commencement of the weekend should not be discounted.




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF, Thursday had initially traded lower in a corrective fashion.

However, subsequently, USDCHF has bounced off support and traded slightly higher.

As the price action continues to be encompassed within a large up channel there is potential that USDCHF trades higher during the afternoon session.

The initial upside target is the 1.0075 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a breach of the channel bottom and the 0.9915 line of control could see USDCHF attempt to test the 0.9845 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD, Thursday has traded sideways and within the opening range.

However, over the past two hours, USDCAD has appreciated as the market awaits Canadian CPI and Wholesale Sales data.

A continuation of the move higher could see USDCAD test the 1.4050 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see USDCAD test the 1.3825 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having bounced off the 0.7100 prior monthly pivot level.

A continuation of the move higher could see AUDUSD test the 0.7220 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see AUDUSD test the 0.7100 and then the 0.7030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold, Thursday has traded higher with the price action having found support at the 1047.00 level,

A continuation of the move higher could see Gold test the 1068.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a breakdown from the opening range could see Gold test the 1035.00 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil, Thursday initially trade higher. However, during the past two hours, sellers have come back into the market.

This has led to Oil breaking down from its opening range.

A continuation of the move lower could see Oil test the 35.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the move lower could see Oil test the 37.15 level which corresponds to today’s line of control.











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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 21.12.2015



Less than a year ago, Europe’s leaders were wondering how they would handle the fallout of a Greek general election result that brought to power a political party of the radical left.

What followed was months of intrigue, failed negotiations, demonstrations on the streets of Athens as the Greek Syriza party led by its charismatic leader Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and his trusted lieutenant in the shape of the combative, yet clear speaking Finance Minister, Mr Yianis Varoufakis battled but ultimately lost their battle with Germany’s iron lady, Chancellor Merkel.

Fast forward to roughly a year and this morning we are trying to come to terms with a general election result that is both important for Spain but also Europe.

According to published election result data, the ruling Partido Popular as expected took the largest share of the vote. However, PP, as it is also known no longer, commands enough elected members of the legislative assembly to allow it to form a majority Government.

There will now follow a scramble to form a new coalition government. The Popular Party as the block with the highest share of the vote and the most members of parliament are going to argue that they should form the next government.

This will be a difficult undertaking as both the new political newcomers, Podemos and Ciudadanos have campaigned on tickets of political renewal and would not want to be associated with past legacy of corruption that has so tainted Spanish politics. Furthermore, Podemos being a political party of the radical left would find it very difficult to share government with the Peoples Party.

As for Ciudadanos, although it is a political party of the centre and middle classes a decision by its leader Albert Rivera would possibly be to shun forming an alliance with the centre-right PP out of fear that this will be seen as a sell out by the electorate who voted for his party.

What the markets and the European Union fears the most is for a coalition of the left to be formed by the traditional socialist PSOE and Podemos. However, the university professor comes political leader Pablo Iglesias Turrion would seem to be a man who is unwilling to compromise his principals.

So what is left is a coalition of the weakened establishment of PP and PSOE. Although this would seem a very unlikely solution, however, such a coalition of national unity was formed in Greece when the conservative New Democracy and the Socialist PASOK buried their differences so as to keep Syriza out of power.

Such a coalition would maintain the establishment grip of Spanish politics and would be welcomed by both the European Union and the markets.
Furthermore, it would be hoped that another term of a PP Government but in this case supported by the PSOE would give the new administration time to push the country back into solid economic and job growth. With Spain back on track, the popularity of Podemos and Ciudadanos would wane.










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0980

Target 2: 1.0725

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0129

Daily control level: 1.0800







GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5025

Target 2: 1.4775

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0126

Daily control level: 1.4950






USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.30

Target 2: 120.15

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.09

Daily control level: 123.30




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0045

Target 2: 0.9810

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 0.9795





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4050

Target 2: 1.3815

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0119

Daily control level: 1.3850




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7260

Target 2: 0.7075

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0093

Daily control level: 0.7100





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1082.00

Target 2: 1049.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.63

Daily control level: 1078.25




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 37.60

Target 2: 34.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.67

Daily control level: 37.15







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 22.12.2015








Yesterday, the price per barrel of Light Sweet Crude continued to drop to new lows. The price of crude has collapsed due to considerable downward pressure being exerted by Saudi Arabia and other OPEC nations.

The downturn in the global economy which has seen both China and the European Union experience contractions has led to the demand of Oil decrease.

The Saudi’s are concerned that production from non-OPEC nations eats away at its market share. Saudi Arabia has two main targets in its sights. The new upstarts being the United States shale producers and the other be oil pumped from the vast Russian fields.

The production of Oil from US shale fields has pumped at a much higher cost than that from crude that is extracted by the Saudi’s. Therefore, Saudi Arabia has effectively used oversupply as a policy tool to curtail the production of shale oil by producers who in many cases have to service high debt burdens.

In the case of targeting Russian production, the benefit for Saudi is twofold. Not only can the Saudi’s draw market share away from Russian producers, but it can also be used as a financial penalty limiting Russia’s involvement in Syria.

Using Oil as a political tool is not something that is new. We had a glimpse of what can be achieved during the Oil crisis of the early 1970’s when OPEC cut off supply to the West in protest against unaligned policy interests.

It would appear that the price of Oil will continue to decline due to reasons outside the control of the Saudi’s.

Iran having come to an accommodation over its nuclear programme is now free to ramp up production. Furthermore, production from Russian fields continues to increase. Finally, the United States has now ended a 40-year ban on the export of Oil.

With the demand of oil not increasing, the only limiting factor to production being ramped up is where will all this excess supply of crude be stored? Refineries are limited to how much crude can be processed and land-based storage is already at full capacity. Therefore, there is a need to begin storing oil offshore within tankers.

With so much pessimism over the downward direction of the price of Oil, one would most probably contemplate levels of US$30, US$25 or even US$20 per barrel. However, moods can sometimes change very quickly.

Searching for clues for when Oil will eventual begin to form a base is not an easy task.
I am however looking at two areas of interest.










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1040

Target 2: 1.0790

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0128

Daily control level: 1.0845




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4995

Target 2: 1.4675

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0115

Daily control level: 1.4930



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 123.30

Target 2: 120.10

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.06

Daily control level: 121.50





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0035

Target 2: 0.9810

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0113

Daily control level: 0.9895




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4075

Target 2: 1.3840

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0118

Daily control level: 1.3850




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7280

Target 2: 0.7090

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0094

Daily control level: 0.7110





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1094.00

Target 2: 1062.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 16.21

Daily control level: 1066.75




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 37.60

Target 2: 34.30

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.59

Daily control level: 37.15

 

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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 23.12.2015






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD, Tuesday continued to trade higher as the price action remained within a well-defined but narrow up channel.

This morning, the EURUSD has broken down from its up channel.

The price action did consolidate within an early morning range however the selling pressure returned and EURUSD subsequently traded lower.

If the 1.0900 level is breached, the initial downside target is 1.0850 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a bounce off the 1.0900 could see EURUSD test the 1.1050 resistance level and the 1.1055 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.090 level. However due to the developing price action, a sustained breach of this will change the trend from up to down.






GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD, Tuesday continued to sell off following worse than expected PSBR number.

This morning, the GBPUSD has traded with a slight upward bias but has been unable to make a sustained break away from its opening range.

If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4900 and then the 1.4930 level. The latter level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A breach of the 1.4915 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4800, and the 1.4720 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY, Tuesday traded with a slight downward bias.

This morning, USDJPY has experienced a very mild bounce with the price action contained within its opening days range.

A continuation of the rally could see USDJPY test the 122.00 and 122.05 resistance levels. The latter level corresponding to the ATR upside projection.

A breach of the 121.50 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see USDJPY test the 120.05 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.







USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF, Tuesday had initially traded lower as the price action rejected higher prices following the break of it’s up the channel.

This morning USDCHF has found support at the 0.9850 level and this has enabled this pair to experience a modest rally.

If USDCHF does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.9950 and then the 0.9960. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A breach of the 0.9940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9850, and the 0.9780 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD, Tuesday traded lower in a corrective fashion.

This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range as the markets await significant afternoon Canadian data.

If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3875 and then the 1.3810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A breach of the 1.3850 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.4030 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD, Tuesday continued to trade higher following the breach of its down channel.

This morning, the AUDUSD has traded within its opening days range with the price action attempting to breach the overnight lower pivot that can be found at the 0.7220 level.

If AUDUSD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7145 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 0.7220 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7300, and the 0.7325 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold, Tuesday continued to trade lower in a corrective fashion.

This morning, the price action has been contained with a narrow opening range.
If Gold does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1066.75 and then the 1057.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 1066.75 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see Gold test the 1088.0.0 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil, Tuesday continued to trade higher following a bounce off the 35.50 level.

This morning, the Oil has traded within its opening days range and is now testing the upper level of its down channel.

If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 38.1 5level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 35.80 and the 35.15 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 35.80 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.










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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.12.2015






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD, Wednesday traded lower for most of the session as the price action broke under the 1.0900 support level.

However. EURUSD was not able to continue with the bearish momentum as buyers came in and supported this pair around the 1.0870 congestion area.

This morning, the EURUSD has continued to trade higher and has broken above its early morning range.

If the 1.0985 level is breached, the initial upside target is 1.1010 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a retest of the 1.0900 level could see EURUSD trade down to the 1.0810 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.0985 level.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD, Wednesday traded higher for most of the session as the price action broke through the 1.4850 resistance level.

However, GBPUSD advance was stalled at the 1.4900 resistance level.

This morning, the GBPUSD had initially traded within its opening range but has subsequently made an attempt to break higher.

The 1.4900 resistance level thus far, however, has proven to be a strong barrier for further advances.

If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4975 and then the 1.5000 level. The former level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A sustained breach of the 1.4900 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4850, and the 1.4765 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY, Wednesday traded in sideways to lower fashion for most of the session.

This morning, USDJPY has broken down from its opening days range.

A continuation of the decline could see USDJPY test the 119.90 support level. This level corresponds to the ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDJPY test the 121.15 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A breach of the 121.15 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF, Wednesday traded higher for most of the day.

However into the Asian session, strong selling came into the market.

This morning USDCHF has experienced a strong decline as the price action broke down from its opening range and is no testing the lows of yesterday.

If USDCHF does continue to trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is 0.9855 followed by the 0.9810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A breach of the 0.9855 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9950, and the 0.9990 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD, Wednesday experienced strong selloff.

This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range.

If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3800 and then the 1.3735. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.3960 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A breach of the 1.3940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD, Wednesday traded in a sideways manner following the breach of its down channel.

This morning, the AUDUSD has traded higher as the price action breaks above its opening range.

If AUDUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7315 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7205, and the 0.7140 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.

A sustained breach of the 0.7205 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold, Wednesday continued to trade lower.

This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

If Gold does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1075.40 and then the 1083.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Gold test the 1086.00 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 1075.40 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil, Wednesday traded higher for the entire session.

This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 39.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 36.65 and the 35.85 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 35.85 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.










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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 24.12.2015







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD, Wednesday traded lower for most of the session as the price action broke under the 1.0900 support level.

However. EURUSD was not able to continue with the bearish momentum as buyers came in and supported this pair around the 1.0870 congestion area.

This morning, the EURUSD has continued to trade higher and has broken above its early morning range.

If the 1.0985 level is breached, the initial upside target is 1.1010 which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a retest of the 1.0900 level could see EURUSD trade down to the 1.0810 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

This morning’s line of control was calculated to be at the 1.0985 level.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD, Wednesday traded higher for most of the session as the price action broke through the 1.4850 resistance level.

However, GBPUSD advance was stalled at the 1.4900 resistance level.

This morning, the GBPUSD had initially traded within its opening range but has subsequently made an attempt to break higher.

The 1.4900 resistance level thus far, however, has proven to be a strong barrier for further advances.

If GBPUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.4975 and then the 1.5000 level. The former level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A sustained breach of the 1.4900 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.

However, as the price action is contained within a large, downward sloping channel, there is a strong possibility that any rally will be short-lived?

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see GBPUSD test the 1.4850, and the 1.4765 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.





USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY, Wednesday traded in sideways to lower fashion for most of the session.

This morning, USDJPY has broken down from its opening days range.

A continuation of the decline could see USDJPY test the 119.90 support level. This level corresponds to the ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDJPY test the 121.15 level which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A breach of the 121.15 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.






USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF, Wednesday traded higher for most of the day.

However into the Asian session, strong selling came into the market.

This morning USDCHF has experienced a strong decline as the price action broke down from its opening range and is no testing the lows of yesterday.

If USDCHF does continue to trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is 0.9855 followed by the 0.9810. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A breach of the 0.9855 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCHF test the 0.9950, and the 0.9990 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD, Wednesday experienced strong selloff.

This morning, USDCAD is trading in a tight opening range.

If USDCAD does trade lower during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1.3800 and then the 1.3735. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain lower prints could see USDCAD test the 1.3960 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

A breach of the 1.3940 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD, Wednesday traded in a sideways manner following the breach of its down channel.

This morning, the AUDUSD has traded higher as the price action breaks above its opening range.

If AUDUSD does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 0.7315 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see AUDUSD test the 0.7205, and the 0.7140 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR upside projection.

A sustained breach of the 0.7205 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.






GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold, Wednesday continued to trade lower.

This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

If Gold does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 1075.40 and then the 1083.00 level. The latter level corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Gold test the 1086.00 which corresponds to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 1075.40 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from down to up.





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil, Wednesday traded higher for the entire session.

This morning, the price action has traded within the opening days range.

If Oil does trade higher during the afternoon session, the initial target is the 39.50 level which corresponds to today’s ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain higher prints could see Oil test the 36.65 and the 35.85 levels. The latter level corresponding to today’s ATR downside projection.

A sustained breach of the 35.85 level would also signal a change of the one hour trend from up to down.










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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 28.12.2015







The first day back after Christmas and the main driver of the European session, London is closed as British traders enjoying the Boxing Day holiday.

With market participants finding it hard to find anyone to match their trades it is expected that volumes will be much lower than is normal for any given Monday.

In terms of event risk, the afternoon session will come with a round of US debt auction, where two-year notes as well as three and six-month bills will be offered. Traders will look at the outcome to assess the recent Federal Reserve policy tightening into real-world application.

Apart from the above investors will also be looking at the US Dallas Manufacturing Activity release this afternoon. The index is forecasted to decline to -7.0 from -4.9 figure last time.

In general, it is expected that the US session will be a quiet affair with dealing rooms manned by skeleton staff who is there in case for an odd piece of corporate business information may need to be taken care of.









EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 4 hour: UP

Target 1: 1.1047

Target 2: 1.0853

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.0985




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 4 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.5011

Target 2: 1.4799

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0106

Daily control level: 1.4900




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 4 hour: Down

Target 1: 121.14

Target 2: 119.12

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.0124

Daily control level: 121.15






USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 4 hour: Range

Target 1: 0.9941

Target 2: 0.9763

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.9855




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 4 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3939

Target 2: 1.3725

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.3940




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7357

Target 2: 0.7187

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 0.7205




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1088.36

Target 2: 1062.42

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.97

Daily control level: 1075.40







OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 39.62

Target 2: 36.90

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3629

Daily control level: 35.85







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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 29.12.2015










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD has stalled just below the psychological resistance level of 1.1000 ahead of the New York holidays.

EURUSD needs to hold above 1.0973 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.1016, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.1061, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the upward momentum, a move lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0942, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0917, which is the today’s 2nd pivot support level.





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD is looking to retest the 10-month low, after the pair bounced off the top of the downtrend channel.

GBPUSD needs to hold below 1.4895 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4796, being the 3rd pivot resistance level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4775, which is the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4917, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance level of today and also coincides with the upper part of the downtrend channel. Following that, GBPUSD could extend the move to 1.4956, being the 2nd pivot resistance level of today.







USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is retesting the top of the downward trend channel this morning.

USDJPY needs to hold above 120.38 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to hold the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 120.63, which is the pair’s 1st pivot resistance of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 120.88 being the pair’s 2nd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 119.87, which is the 2nd pivot support of the day. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension towards 119.61, could likely occur next.




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continues to trade around the daily pivot point today.

USDCHF needs to hold below 0.9879 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 0.9857, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could continue trading towards 0.9831, which is the 2nd pivot support of the pair.

If USDCHF fails to maintain downward momentum, a reversal higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial upside target for today will be 0.9904, being the pair’s 1st pivot resistance and also coinciding with the top of the recently formed downtrend channel. The extension further to 0.9927 could follow next in this case.






USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD resumed to trade higher this morning.

USDCAD needs to hold above 1.3876 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside aim is 1.3981, being the pair’s 2nd resistance level of today. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4007, being the Average True Range upside projection of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its upward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.3838, which is the 1st pivot support level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.3797, being the Average True Range downside projection of today.





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has once again retesting 0.7280 support this morning.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.7256 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7293, being the 2nd resistance level of today. Should that target be reached successfully, the extension towards 0.7305 could follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.7236, being the pairs 1st pivot support level of today. Should this aim be reached successfully, an extension towards 0.7224, would likely follow next.






GOLD

level The intraday technical outlook

Gold has bounced off the downtrend resistance line this morning.

The commodity needs to hold below 1070.59 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1064.35, being the 1st pivot support level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend towards 1060.05 mark.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1074.89, which is the 1st pivot resistance level of the metal for today. Following that, the commodity’s price could move to 1081.53, being the upside Average True Range upside projection for today.



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price has made up to now unsuccessful attempt to trade higher.

The commodity needs to hold below 37.40 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 36.54, being the 1st pivot resistance level for today. Should that target be reached, the commodity could continue its move to 35.74, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level.

If the commodity fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 38.40, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level for today.









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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 30.12.2015









December 30 gives us an increase in event risk with a good amount of data being released to the market.

The morning starts early with the Spanish Flash CPI data being released at 8:00 am London time. The change in the price of goods and services within the country is expected to improve to 0.1%, up from -0.3% of the November release.

This publishing is followed by the European Central Bank announcing the final M3 Money Supply number for 2015, with the domestic currency circulation and deposits is forecasted to come slightly lower to 5.2% this time.

The focus for the afternoon shifts across the pond to the United States when the National association of retailers will release Pending Home Sales number. The monthly increase is expected to reach 0.6% today.

This is followed shortly after by the Crude Oil Inventories data, made available by Energy Information Administration agency of the United States. Despite that commodity’s oversupply still persists in the markets, some further drop in stock held is expected. A reduction by -1.8 million barrels is projected this week after -5.9 million of the previous release.

The amount of data to be released under normal circumstances should be sufficient to move the market.

Nevertheless, with trading rooms across the major centres of London, New York, Tokyo and Frankfurt virtually deserted and with most corporate clients doing little between the Christmas and New Year break, volumes should be light but spikes in volatility could occur.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 1.1008

Target 2: 1.0828

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0090

Daily control level: 1.0985







GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4912

Target 2: 1.4714

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0099

Daily control level: 1.4900



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 121.30

Target 2: 119.58

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.8594

Daily control level: 121.15



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0012

Target 2: 0.9848

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0082

Daily control level: 0.9855


USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3946

Target 2: 1.3736

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0105

Daily control level: 1.3940



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7372

Target 2: 0.7212

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0080

Daily control level: 0.7205




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1080.73

Target 2: 1056.41

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.16

Daily control level: 1075.40



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Range

Target 1: 39.10

Target 2: 36.56

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.3307

Daily control level: 35.85








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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 31.12.2015





With much of Europe closed today, we expect trading volumes to be light on the last day of 2015.

There are official bank holidays in Germany, Japan, New Zealand and Australia and this should limit activity in the Euro, Japanese Yen, Australian and New Zealand Dollars.

Although London is open, the normal course of business is for trading rooms to square up positions in the morning and for the banks to close early.

It will be up to New York to close Thursday’s and the year’s business. The Department of Labor will publish its final weekly Unemployment Claims data. However with the Federal Reserve having already given its decision on interest rates, it is doubtful that the Federal Reserve Chairwoman, Janet Yellen will interrupt her well-deserved festive break.

On that note, ACFX would like to wish all our clients and partners a prosperous and happy new year.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.1015

Target 2: 1.0850

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0085

Daily control level: 1.0945





GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4905

Target 2: 1.4715

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.4790




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 121.35

Target 2: 119.70

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

Daily control level: 120.15




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.9965

Target 2: 0.9805

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0081

Daily control level: 0.9855





USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.3980

Target 2: 1.3775

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0104

Daily control level: 1.3940





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 0.7355

Target 2: 0.7210

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

Daily control level: 0.7265




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1073.50

Target 2: 1048.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.55

Daily control level: 1072.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 38.60

Target 2: 36.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

Daily control level: 38.40






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 05.01.2016






Following on from depressing PMI data from China that sent equity values crashing on the Shanghai and Shenzhen Stock Exchanges, Monday afternoon saw weak US data add to the rather woeful start to 2016.

Yesterday afternoon the Institute for Supply Management contributed further to investor concerns by announcing an ISM Manufacturing PMI number fell short both of expectations and the prior month’s publication.

The market had expected that the ISM would publish data that was in line with the 49.1 forecast, however, the release of 48.2 even failed to beat the prior months 48.6 reading. Readings that are below 50.0 indicate manufacturing activity is contracting.

This poor reading means that for the December 2015 reporting period that manufacturing in the World’s largest economy has contracted by the greatest amount for six years.

The drop off in manufacturing activity can be blamed on the low price of Crude and the impact of the strong US Dollar which has hampered the efforts of the country’s exporters. Furthermore, anaemic growth which goes hand in hand with a lack of demand from the global economy continues to hinder local manufacturers.

There was additional bad news from the Construction sector when the US Census Bureau announced that construction spending had declined by -0.4%. The markets had expected a release to be in line with the 0.7% forecast and to at least beat the prior months 0.3% reading.

With Monday’s domestic data being so poor, the US markets took their cue from China as both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 slipped substantially lower on the first trading day of 2016.

January has only just begun and with a lot of data and news driven event risk to be announced tomorrow. This includes the ADP jobs number, ISM non-manufacturing PMI. Crude Oil Inventories and the all-important FOMC Meeting Minutes.

With so much news hitting the wires, investors will be looking and hoping for positive signs which will support the US equity markets.






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0915

Target 2: 1.0740

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.0945




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4810

Target 2: 1.4615

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.4815



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 120.25

Target 2: 118.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

Daily control level: 120.50




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0110

Target 2: 0.9930

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 0.9920



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4060

Target 2: 1.3845

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0107

Daily control level: 1.3870



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7260

Target 2: 0.7110

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

Daily control level: 0.7330



GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1086.00

Target 2: 1060.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.90

Daily control level: 1058.00



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 38.90

Target 2: 36.35

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.27

Daily control level: 36.70






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 07.01.2016




According to the minutes of the last FOMC meeting that took place on December 16, the decision to increase the Federal Funds rate from the historic lows of <0.25% was a “close call”.

Although Federal Reserve committee member were united in their decision to increase rates, the discussion was not a plain and simple rubber stamp event.

According to the minutes, “only gradual increases” should be expected. This comment reflected the concerns of members of the committee who viewed deflationary risks that emanate from the global economy could derail the Federal Reserve’s plan to normalize the interest rate environment.

In line with the concerns that external factors could have a bearing on the FOMC’s plans and the dot plot that has been disclosed to the market the minutes of the last meeting noted that “Participants emphasized the need to adjust the policy path as economic conditions evolved and to avoid appearing to commit to any specific pace of adjustments.”

Although the Federal Reserve Chairwoman in her message to the media and market said that she was confident that the 2% inflation target would be achieved, these views were not shared by some of the committee members.

The start of the year has seen the markets in turmoil, with the price of Oil plunging. Many analysts in the energy sector are predicting Light Sweet Crude to target the US$30.00 per barrel in the short term.

News from China since the start of the year has also been worrying with the stock exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen being closed once again today. These closures are due to massive drops in Chinese equity values that have meant the authorities have had to trigger circuit breakers that put in place a down limit on falls that reach the 5% and 7% levels.

The fall in the price of Chinese equities has also spread panic across to other global exchanges. The US Dow Jones 30, NASDAQ 100 and the S&P 500 are now once again in a bear territory on daily time frame.

Of the two mandates that the FOMC is responsible for, serious question marks now hover over the expectation that the inflation target will be reached.

On the jobs front, there are signs for optimism. The Federal Reserve is banking on the improvement in the employment outlook will continue and this will act as a catalyst that will maintain the recovery in the US economy. However, some FOMC members have questioned this hypothesis and made their views clear the minutes.

The minutes that were released last night portray a Fed that was much divided on the decision to increase interest rates. Furthermore, the divisions that lay within the committee worryingly tells the markets that that the FOMC is not convinced that its actions are correct and ahead of the curve.

This is a recipe for further volatility during January.







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0865

Target 2: 1.0695

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0086

Daily control level: 1.0705




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4715

Target 2: 1.4540

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0089

Daily control level: 1.4815




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 119.30

Target 2: 117.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.84

Daily control level: 119.70




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0155

Target 2: 0.9985

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0087

Daily control level: 1.0120




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4185

Target 2: 1.3965

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0111

Daily control level: 1.3895




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7140

Target 2: 0.6995

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0075

Daily control level: 0.7215




GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1106.00

Target 2: 1080.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 13.41

Daily control level: 1074.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 36.00

Target 2: 33.60

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.37

Daily control level: 39.00




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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 08.01.2016







EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD, Thursday closed the day higher following the indifferent minutes release from the FOMC.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend however the slope of the 120-period linear regression channel continues to be negative. The line of control that is below the current price action at the 1.0765 prior swing pivot level.

This morning, EURUSD is trading within the opening range.

A continuation EURUSD move higher could find resistance at the 1.0948 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see EURUSD trade back down to the 1.0838 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD, Thursday closed the day lower however strong support was found at the 1.4550 area.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 1.4815 prior swing pivot level.

This morning GBPUSD, has broken down from its early morning opening range.

A continuation GBPUSD move lower could be halted at the 1.4549 support levels which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see GBPUSD trade back up to the 1.4685 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY, Thursday closed the day lower but found support at the 117.50 area.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 119.70 prior swing pivot level.

This morning USDJPY is trading within the opening range.

A continuation USDJPY move lower could be halted at the 117.72 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see USDJPY test the 118.35 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF, Thursday closed the day lower but found support in the 0.9925 area.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend however the slope of the 120-period linear regression channel continues to be positive. The line of control that is above the current price action at the 1.0120 prior swing pivot level.

This morning USDCHF, is has broken up from its opening range.

A continuation USDCHF moves higher could be halted at the 1.0002 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see USDCHF trade back down to the 0.9923 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD, Thursday closed the day up but found resistance in the 1.4170 area.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend as can be seen by the positive slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 1.3895 prior swing pivot level.

This morning USDCAD has broken up from its early morning opening range.

A continuation of USDCAD move higher could be halted at the 1.4172 which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the upward momentum could see USDCAD trade back down to the 1.4012 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD, Thursday closed the day lower but found support at the 0.7000 area.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is above the current price action at the 0.7080 prior swing pivot level.

This morning AUDUSD has broken down from its early morning opening range.

A continuation of AUDUSD moves lower could be halted at the 0.6997 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see AUDUSD trade back up to the 0.7079 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Gold, Thursday closed the day up.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in an uptrend as can be seen by the positive slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 1074.00 prior swing pivot level.

This morning Gold has broken down from its early morning opening range.

A continuation Gold move lower could be halted at the 1099.00 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see Gold trade back up to the 1109.00 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil, Thursday closed the day lower but did managed to bounce off strong support in the 33.00 area.

The 1-hour intraday price action can be defined as being in a downtrend as can be seen by the negative slope of the 120-period linear regression channel and the line of control that is below the current price action at the 35.30 prior swing pivot level.

This morning Oil has just traded under its opening days range.

A continuation Oil move lower could be halted at the 33.83 level which corresponds to the current ATR downside projection.

Alternatively, a failure to sustain the downward momentum could see Oil trade back up to the 35.48 level which corresponds to the current ATR upside projection.






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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 11.01.2016






Last Friday, the Bureau of Labor Statistics published its first Jobs report of 2016. Although the data looks back to December, this jobs report was meant to set the tone for a year where the Federal Reserve according to its dot plot is planning no less than 4 interest rate increases.

The unemployment rate remained stable at 5.0% however the Non-Farm Employment Change number caught the initial headlines with 292,000 jobs being added during the previous month. This very strong number blew away the forecast of 203,000 and the prior release of 252,000. The revisions for the prior two months were also good at +50,000.

One would have expected that on the face of it, such positive Non-Farm Payroll data would have sent the US Dollar higher during the latter part of the New York session as traders priced in an increased probability of an interest rate hike at the Federal Reserve March meeting.

However, the one piece of bad news that was contained on Friday’s Job Report, the month on month Average Hourly Earnings number disappointed investors.

As the US Dollar lost ground as it traded into the close the markets felt that although the NFP headline looks impressive, the markets still view the numbers not good enough for a March increase.

The question mark over the quality of the jobs being created is still of a great concern and with the jobs outlook approaching levels of full employment, it is debatable that we see further large NFP numbers announced during the coming year.

The Federal Reserve continues to push a 4 interest rate increase scenario for 2016, however, the bond market sees this to be too optimistic.

What is rather striking is according to Bloomberg’s World Interest Rate Probability (WIPR) page, market participants have now calculated an 8% probability the interest rates will be cut in March.

Although this is an unlikely scenario that the market is now allowing for a potential rate cut does show how fragile many market participants view this recovery in the US economy.

The big story of last week was China. This morning we awoke to headlines that there have been further reverses on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges.

The pessimism that has seeped into the global economy since the start of the year combined with the far from unified position amongst committee members that was highlighted in last week’s Federal Reserve minutes would seem to point to further rate hikes being extremely gradual.








EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.1003

Target 2: 1.0872

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0096

Daily control level: 1.0800




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4588

Target 2: 1.4462

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.4650



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 117.61

Target 2: 116.50

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.81

Daily control level: 118.80



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.9975

Target 2: 0.9856

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0095

Daily control level: 1.0050



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.4260

Target 2: 1.4079

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0100

Daily control level: 1.4050





AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7001

Target 2: 0.6906

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0074

Daily control level: 0.7080





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1116.00

Target 2: 1094.79

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.54

Daily control level: 1091.00





OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 34.71

Target 2: 32.20

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.40

Daily control level: 35.30







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MARKET BRIEFING – LONDON OPEN 12.01.2016






As the volatile start to the year continued, equities took further beatings as worries over China persisted.

Asian stocks reached new lows not seen since 2011 the China 50 index remained under pressure.

The recent reversal on Chinese equity markets has spread to other stock markets in the United States and Europe.

Furthermore, the negativity that surrounds the Shenzhen and Shanghai stock markets has seeped through to the forex market where the offshore Chinese Renminbi lost ground against the US Dollar.

At one point the USDCNH rate peaked at 6.7631 last Thursday but has since slipped back to 6.5880 following concerted action by the Peoples Bank of China to intervene and stabilize the value of the Yuan.

Increasingly, many commentators have now questioned the policy of the local regulators with the Peoples Bank of China coming increasingly under the spotlight.

The Peoples Bank of China move to support the Yuan did surprise the markets but this action is understandable. The PBOC is attempting to engineer a foreign exchange policy where the markets rather than it decides the appropriate exchange rate.

Furthermore, with the entry of the Yuan into the IMF reserve currency basket the PBOC is attempting to keep in line with its commitments which limits Yuan depreciation.

However, the PBOC has to manage the current high levels of volatility and these are only set to increase when in the early hours of tomorrow morning the Customs General Administration of China (CGAC) will announce the latest Trade Balance report.

Analysts and investors will be looking at the level of exports and imports as it is expected that both these components of the Trade Balance report will contract.

Such news would signal that the Chinese economy is shrinkage and in turn, will further fray the nerves of investors and officials at the PBOC.










EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.0940

Target 2: 1.0789

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.0800




GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.4613

Target 2: 1.4461

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0098

Daily control level: 1.4600




USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 118.06

Target 2: 117.16

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.86

Daily control level: 118.80




USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 1.0088

Target 2: 0.9923

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0097

Daily control level: 1.0050




USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1.3130

Target 2: 1.4140

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0109

Daily control level: 1.4050




AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 0.7028

Target 2: 0.6927

Projected range in ATR’s: 0.0078

Daily control level: 0.7080





GOLD

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Up

Target 1: 1106.00

Target 2: 1084.00

Projected range in ATR’s: 12.27

Daily control level: 1091.00




OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Trend 1 hour: Down

Target 1: 32.90

Target 2: 30.81

Projected range in ATR’s: 1.54

Daily control level: 34.25








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MARKET BRIEFING – TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 13.01.2016






EURUSD

The intraday technical outlook

EURUSD continues the decline after the pair bounced off the top of the downward trend channel yesterday.

EURUSD needs to hold below 1.0858 level being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.0761, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this mark be reached successfully, a further extension towards 1.0736, which is the 3rd pivot support level, could be observed further.

If EURUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a move higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.0840, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. In case this scenario will be activated, EURUSD could prolong its move to 1.0909, which is today’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection.



GBPUSD

The intraday technical outlook

GBPUSD has slightly recovered this morning, after the pair sunk to a new six-year low yesterday.

GBPUSD needs to hold above 1.4546 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside target is 1.4365, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target to be reached, the extend to 1.4242, which is the 3rd psychological support level, could take place next.

If GBPUSD fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today will be 1.4533, which is today’s the Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of the pair. Following that, GBPUSD could move to 1.4659, being the 2nd pivot resistance.



USDJPY

The intraday technical outlook

USDJPY is trading higher this morning, after the pair broke the top of the downtrend channel yesterday.

USDJPY needs to hold above 117.64 level, being the intraday Pivot Point in order to continue the uptrend scenario.

The initial upside target is 118.48, which is the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should this level be reached, a further extension towards 118.90 being the pair’s 3rd pivot resistance, could likely take place next.

If USDJPY fails to maintain the upward momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 117.49, which is the Daily Average True Range downside projection target of today. In case this scenario will be activated, a further extension to 117.21, being the USDJPY 1st pivot support level, could occur next.



USDCHF

The intraday technical outlook

USDCHF continue to keep the upward momentum this morning.

USDCHF needs to hold above 1.0010 line being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue its upward move.

The initial upside target is 1.0118, being the pair’s Daily Average True Range upside projection target of today. Should that level be reached, the pair could extend trading towards 1.0136, which is the 3rd pivot resistance level of the pair for today.

If USDCHF fails to maintain upward momentum, a reversal lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the initial downside target for today will be 1.0010, being the pair’s Pivot Point of today. The extension further to 0.9975 could follow next.



USDCAD

The intraday technical outlook

USDCAD is retracing this morning after the pair reached a new thirteen-year high yesterday.

USDCAD needs to hold below 1.4250 level being the intraday Pivot Point, if the price action is to continue its downward move.

The initial downside aim is 1.4160, being the pair’s Average True Range downside projection. Should this mark be reached, it will open the way towards 1.4110, being the 2nd pivot support level of today.

If USDCAD fails to maintain its downward momentum, a reversal and returning to trade higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 1.4325, which is the Average True Range upside projection together with the 1st pivot resistance level of today. Following that, the pair could stretch to 1.4389, being the 2nd pivot resistance of the pair.



AUDUSD

The intraday technical outlook

AUDUSD has stabilized this morning, after the pair has created a new higher high as a likely confirmation of the downtrend reversal.

AUDUSD needs to hold above 0.6980 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the upward move.

The initial upside target for this afternoon will be 0.7053, being the Average True Range upside projection of the pair. Should this aim be reached successfully, a further stretch towards 0.7104 could likely follow next.

If AUDUSD fails to maintain the upside momentum, a retracement lower could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target is 0.6967, being the pairs Average True Range downside projection. Should this aim be accomplished, an extension towards 0.6940, being the pair’s 1st pivot support of today, could take place next.



GOLD

level The intraday technical outlook

Gold is retracing this morning, after the metal formed a lower high pattern during the yesterday’s trading session.

The commodity needs to hold below 1089.53 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 1074.83, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached, Gold could extend to 1069.00, which is the commodity’s 3rd intermediate pivot support.

If the metal fails to maintain the downward momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur, the target for today is 1089.53, which is the pair’s 1st pivot point of today.



OIL

The intraday technical outlook

Oil price has bounced off the top of the downtrend channel this morning.

The commodity needs to break below 31.85 level, being the intraday Pivot Point if the price action is to continue the downward move.

The initial downside target is 30.42, being the Daily Average True Range (ATR) downside projection level of today. Should this target be reached successfully, a move towards 30.06, which is 2nd intermediate pivot resistance level of the commodity, could follow next.

If the Oil fails to maintain the downside momentum, a reversal and trading higher could potentially unfold.

If this scenario was to occur the target for today is 33.10, being the commodity’s Daily Average True Range (ATR) upside projection level of today.





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