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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 19 – 23 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– giving the forecast for EUR/USD, the vast majority of experts believed that for a while the pair would be moving sideways backing on the support of 1.1200, which was happening during the whole week, up until the middle of Friday. But then, instead of going up, the pair made a breakthrough to the south. Only one analyst predicted such a possible decline, in his opinion, the pair would break through the boundary of the ascending channel and go down to the support of 1.1120, which, however, it failed to reach, having stalled at the level of 1.1150;


– as expected, last week’s acting of GBP/USD was determined by lots of news from Great Britain. With this, 75% of analysts together with the graphical analysis on D1 predicted the pair’s strong bearish trend striving to keep within the boundaries of summer sideways channel. Which virtually happened, as a result of such a sharp drop, the pair even broke through the central line of this channel and reached the level of 1.3000;


– predicting the future of USD/JPY, experts split into three camps. Eventually the pair managed to support the opinions of the first, second and third camp. 65% of analysts together with the graphical analysis expected the pair to go down to the support of 101.20, on Tuesday it fell to the level of 101.40. 25% of experts reckoned that the pair would rise to the area of 103.20-104.00, on Thursday it obediently rose to the level of 103.35. And, finally, the remaining 10% of experts expected the pair to move in a sideways trend, eventually, the pair wrapped up the week almost at the same level it had started from – in the area of 102.25-102.60;


– USD/CHF pair sprang no surprises. As the experts expected, it failed to move away from the pivot point of 0.9800, having ended the week just at that very level.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– reasoning about the future of EUR/USD, 35% of experts and 15% of indicators on D1 reckon that the breakout can be false, and the ascending channel, which had started in July, will continue. However the majority of analysts do not agree with such a scenario, they expect the pair to fall further, first – to the level of 1.1100, and then –100 points further down. As for the medium-term forecast, the number of supporters of the pair’s decline makes up to 70%, and the area of 1.0500 – 1.0800 is indicated as the target;


– assessing the prospects for GBP/USD, most indicators (95%) and the technical analysis on D1 insist that the pair will continue falling to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850. As for the experts, their opinions split almost equally into three camps – 35% vote for the fall, 30% - for the rise and 35% - for the sideways trend. The only thing they have in common is that the pair will still be keeping within the range of 1.2850 – 1.3450;


– there is also no consensus among the experts in respect of the forecast for USD/JPY. It is safe to say that Wednesday will be the core driver for the week trend, when the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan and the US Fed and corresponding statements on the monetary policy of these countries will be released. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 predicts that for a while the pair will be keeping within 101.70 – 103.25. Following which, according to the readings of indicators on D1, the pair will plunge to the support of 100.50, having rebounded from which it will then surge upwards – to the resistance of 104.30, and if it is broken through, then even further – up to the high of 111.45;


– the forecast for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF – is still the same – movement alongside the pivot level of 0.9750 – 0.9800. The support will be at the levels of 0.9685 and 0.9640, the resistance will be at 0.9885. With this, giving a medium-term forecast, around 60% of experts predict bullish trends and striving of the pair to reach the high of 1.0100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 26 – 30 September 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– the most intriguing for EUR/USD last week was whether the ascending channel, which had started in July, would continue. However, the acting of the pair didn’t give a clear answer to that question. Indeed, after the breakout, as expected, the pair went down to the support in the area of 1.1100–1.1120. But then, having rebounded from it the pair returned to the lower boundary of the uptrend and, having turned it into the resistance, continued its moving upwards;


– as a reminder, assessing possible acting of GBP/USD, experts split into three almost equal groups: 35% voted for the pair’s fall, 30% - for its rise, and 35% for the sideways trend. Eventually, the last camp turned out to be right – using the central line of summer sideways channel of 1.3060 as the resistance, the pair had been moving eastward during the whole week. With this, the bears didn’t cease to test the level of 1.2950, but the bulls could fight off all those attacks, and eventually the pair wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2960;


– as for USD/JPY, the Interest Rate Decisions of the central bank of Japan and the US Fed (which, as expected, were kept on hold) were no so much determining as the commentary on the monetary policy of those countries. Eventually, having kept within the sideways range during the first two days, on Wednesday the pair surged up – to the resistance of 102.80, and then, as the graphical analysis expected, it plunged. Having broken through the support of 100.50, by inertia the pair went further 40 points down – to the level of 100.10, and afterwards, when it calmed down a little, it returned to the specified area – to the area of 100.50–101.25;


– Wednesday was also determining for USD/CHF. And if until now the pair had been moving without moving apart from the pivot point of 0.9800, then, mirroring the acting of EUR/USD, it plunged. The technical analysis indicated two levels of support – 0.9685 and 0.9640, however, the pair preferred the average value and chose the level of 0.9660 as the week low, and afterwards, having bounced off it, it returned to the area of 0.9685–0.9740.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– EUR/USD. 95% of indicators on H4 and 80% on D1 point to the north. As for the analysts, 60% of them vote for the pair’s rise, and 40% - for its fall. This time the number of supporters of the sideways movement of the pair was zero. If the camp, voting for rise, wins, then the pair will return to the range of the ascending medium-term channel and consolidate above its lower boundary, alongside which it has been currently moving. In this scenario the minimum goal is to get to the area of 1.1260–1.1280, the target for the next weeks - 1.1410. As for the supporters of its fall, they indicate the level of 1.1120 as the target, the next support will be at 1.1045. It should be noted here, that unlike the week forecast, in medium term around 75% of experts give priority to the bears;


– the forecast for GBP/USD remains virtually unchanged. The most analysts, fully backed by the graphical analysis on H4 and D1, insist that the pair will continue to go down to the lower boundary of the three-month sideways trend – to 1.2850, and afterwards a reverse of the trend and return of the pair to the resistance of 1.3060 should follow.


– as for USD/JPY, the majority of analysts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis on D1, insist that the pair will continue its downtrend. With this, it should be noted, that currently the pair is at the level of very strong support – 101.00, and significant efforts might be required to get over it. If successful, the target of the pair will be the area of 99.00-100.00. According to the graphical analysis, during the month the pair might go further down – to the support of 96.50, afterwards it will return to the level of 101.00;


– talking about the near future of USD/CHF, 60% of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair should once again test the low of 0.9660, and possibly reach the bottom in the area of 0.9600. However, then the pair will nevertheless return to the pivot point of 0.9800, and more than 70% of analysts are sure about that.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 03 – 07 October 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as a reminder, forecasting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts voted for the pair’s rise up to the resistance of 1.1260–1.1280, and on Monday the pair actually reached the level of 1.1279. 40% of experts supported its fall, and on Friday the pair tested the bottom in the area of 1.1150. This time the number of supporters of the sideways trend was equal to 0. But if at least one expert had pointed to the east, his very forecast would have turned out to be the most accurate, as the pair ended the week almost where it had started from – at the level of 1.1240;


– currently GBP/USD is keeping within the lower area of the three-month sideways channel, and most analysts expected the pair to continue its declining to August lows in the area of 1.2850. However, the pair preferred to follow the suit of EUR/USD, and, using the central line of 1.3060 channel as the resistance, it transited to the sideways trend. Eventually the week session was ended, one might say, with a zero result – in five days the pair rose less than by 10 points;


– the same pattern may be observed as for USD/JPY. Here the majority of experts – 70%, backed by the indicators and the graphical analysis, insisted on continuation of the descending trend. With this, it was noted that significant efforts might be required to get over the strong support of 101.00. The area of 99.00-100.00 was indicated as the nearest target. Eventually the pair could approach the level of 100.00 for a short time, following which it strongly surged upward and finished the week at the level of 101.33;


– giving the forecast for USD/CHF, the experts together with the indicators reckoned that it should retest the low at the level of 0.9660, following which it should return to the pivot point of 0.9800. That forecast panned out 100%. In a week the pair made whooping four attempts to break through the specified support, and two of them made headway. And thus, on Thursday the pair freshened its September low, having fallen to the level of 0.9640, and then, as expected, it went back upward, having moved up to the level of 0.9755 on Friday. As for the end of the working week, the pair wrapped up the week the same as the other three pairs of our review, the final area virtually coincided with the starting area, and the pair came into a weekend at the level of 0.9712.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– EUR/USD. The great majority of indicators on H4 and D1 (90%) point to the north. With this, the vast majority of experts (80%) point to the south. Such dissent is possibly connected with the fact that the indicators cannot be aware of Friday (October 7) release of data on employment change from the USA. Forecasts for these data, including NFP, are positive for US dollar. And if NFP, as expected, increases from 151К to 170К–176К, EUR/USD pair can go down to the support of 1.1150. The next support will be at 1.1120. As for a longer term forecast, here 70% of analysts expect the pair to go down below the level of 1.1000;


– certainly, expectations for employment growth in the USA and negative forecasts in respect of industrial output in Great Britain (these data are also released on Friday) cannot but affect GBP/USD quotations. So, 65% of experts, backed by the absolute majority of indicators and the graphical analysis on H4, expect the pair to decline to August lows in the area of 1.2850. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it indicates the possibility of its greater decline – down to the low of July 06 at the level of 1.2795, following which the pair will return to the medium-term pivot point of 1.3060;


– as for USD/JPY, plenty of evidence suggests that the pair will transit to the sideways trend. So, the opinions of both experts and indicators on H4 and D1 split almost equally – about half of them vote for the pair’s rise, and the same number – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis, the one on H4 also tends to the sideways trend within 100.80–101.80. The graphical analysis on D1 extends the range of the pair’s fluctuations to 99.00–104.00, with this, it expressly points to predominance of bullish sentiment for this upcoming week;


– as before, nobody expects any surprises from USD/CHF. The pair continues a medium-term consolidation in the area of 0.9700–0.9800, diminishing volatility during the whole year of 2016. The main resistance will be at 0.9810, support – in the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, over 75% of experts believe that in the medium term the bulls will convincingly win, and the pair will make an upward breakout, observing the beginning of new year of 2017, at the high of 1.0100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

September 2016: Pitfalls of Trading Signals Viewed by Analyst of NordFX


It is always interesting to watch how people make their choice and then understand why it happened. What is meant here is not future USA presidential elections, but the choice of the investors, subscribing to trading signals in the same-name service in MT4 platform. After all, people are not just subscribing, they virtually trust their, often considerable, funds to a given trader - provider of the signals.

It is well-known that anything money-related requires special attention. Naturally, this also applies to automatic copying of trades of other traders. Technically, it is possible just to choose the provider of the signals showing the maximum profit and copy his trading. But is it always the best option? As usual, the leading analyst of NordFX broker company John Gordon expresses his opinion on the subject. And, as often happens, he is not inclined to look at the choice of the subscribers only through rose-coloured glasses.


Following the results of September 2016, Top 10 of the most popular signals among the subscribers is as follows:


I. CALM (growth 2045%, 498 subscribers),

II. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 91%, 468 subscribers),

III. Seven Majors Renko Scalper (growth 301%, 336 subscribers),

IV. Revolution (growth 4138%, 317 subscribers),

V. New Stable Forex Profit (growth 44%, 261 subscribers),

VI. Small to BIG Money (growth 468%, 143 subscribers),

VII. WaterFragance (growth 1544%, 122 subscribers),

VIII. F Cracker (growth 281%, 98 subscribers),

IX. WaterFragance2 (growth 38%, 91 subscribers),

X. SURVIVOR (growth 2060%, 84 subscribers).


“If you don't mind”, J. Gordon peers at the monitor of his computer, “I will begin the analysis with the signal called CALM – the newbie of our TOP rating, which entered the TOP 10 for the first time. I tell you straight away that it took the first place not only among the subscribers, but also in the rating created by MetaQuotes company. And this is by no means unimportant, as two of these ratings very often don't match among themselves.


So, why do more than fifteen hundred investors have such a deep fascination for that signal, so that they entrusted to it $2.200.000 for management?

I guess, I'll be right in assuming, that its author has solid history as PAMM-manager. This is evident from his another signal – HOZYIN, which is accompanied by numerous deposits and withdrawal of funds.

As for CALM, this signal is a little more than one year old, and during the first 12 months it showed the growth of about 25% per month. With this, the drawdown repeatedly appeared in the area of 40% from the deposit, after which the author of the signal decided to lower the risks at least to 30%. But, as often happens, together with the risk the profitability also fell. According to the forecasts of the author, it will make from 10% to 15% per month now, and it's possible that with such parameters the signal will leave TOP 10 investors' preferences. But so far it makes an impression of a quite stable and profitable signal.”


“Here I want to pay attention to one specific moment connected with online monitoring on the website MQL5.com," J. Gordon continues. “Among the main and most marked parameters ‘The maximum drawdown’ is specified here. This parameter, on the one hand, is rather terrifying for the investors, but on the other hand – it is not reasonably objective. The paradox is that eventually it can only increase, but not decrease in any way.

Let's try to look into the matter of this nuance by the example of the same CALM signal.

When it started in life its author applied a rather risky strategy, and the maximum drawdown on equity at that time made 44%. If he began to risk even more, and the drawdown would increase, let's say, up to 60%, then it would be fixed in the corresponding column. However, our author reduced the risks, and value of his maximum drawdown fell to 30%. So what? He can trade another five, ten, twenty years, reducing the drawdown from 44% to 30%, 10%, to zero! But in this column from here to eternity those 44%, which were formed at the time of ‘wild youth’ of this signal, will be specified.

Does that sound fair?

In my opinion, such lifelong 'black spot' (do you remember the novel “Treasure island” by Stevenson?) isn't not quite fair. And the only option to get rid of this 'curse' is to register a new signal. But then the whole months-long or long-term work of the provider will be ruined, and this new signal will be at the very bottom of the rating, which no potential subscriber and investor will ever get to.

In my opinion, at least one more parameter – the average value of the drawdown for the whole life span of the signal - could be set forth near the maximum drawdown. Until this happens, I urge you to look attentively at the chart of the drawdown, which is included in monitoring of each signal. And before subscribing, compare dynamics of this chart to the data on profitability of the signal. This will give a true and fair view.


Data on profitability is generally very important and evident parameter which allows picturing what to expect from a subscription. Let's take, for example, Revolution signal – the IV place in this rating. The growth in a year and a half makes more than 4000% with the maximum drawdown of 8% – one would wonder what more could it be asked for? But if we look at the results of last months, it turns out that everything is not in the way that it wished to be. Indeed, last May 2015, the profit made 150%, and currently, in recent months, the picture has been absolutely different: April – 1.66%, May – 0, June – 1.53%, July – 6.79%, August – 3.31%, September (at the time of this article writing) – 0.62% at all! What thousands of percents are there to talk about? The annual forecast of MQL5.com – is just over 16% per year. It is up to you, dear readers, to decide whether it is worth subscribing to such signal.”


“And one more piece of advice", J. Gordon continues, “choose for subscription only those signals which can be analyzable on rather long time period – at least about a year. Otherwise, in a number of cases, you can discover unpleasant surprises. I don't want to suspect anybody of anything, but sometimes the results on the growth chart before the thin vertical gray line and after it differ significantly.

To clarify, this line means the beginning of online monitoring on the part of MQL5.com.

So, for example, in August one more signal, which in a month with the drawdown of less than 35% gained over 2800% of profit, approached TOP 10. Like I said: more than 2800% in 31 days! It's incredible! But it had been prior to the beginning of the independent online monitoring. And afterward – in September – it showed 37% of profit and drawdown of almost 60%. (That very drawdown which with a bonus of 100% most often leads to closing of accounts). I don't know how the author of this signal can explain such a decline in profit by 75 times. But I know that in September he instantly registered two new signals which showed the growth of... 6000% and 7000%, respectively, in less than a month!”


“I will watch this fantastic trader closely and I will surely tell you about his progress (or failures). Meanwhile I want to emphasize”, the leading analyst of NordFX sums up, “that we aren't going either to frighten investors, or, on the contrary, persuade them to subscribe to any given signal. We only want to share our experience of analysis of signals, to show what hides behind the figures and charts of monitoring, and to ensure that you received if not stratospheric, but though real profit. Admit that a bird in the hand is worth two in the wood. It is, by the way, one of the fundamental principles of work of our company – stability and reliability. Forex is serious business, which you should take extremely seriously. And, certainly, respectfully!”


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #forex_signals #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 10 – 14 October 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– as a reminder, predicting the future of EUR/USD most experts pointed to the south. NFP print (US Non-Farm Payrolls) was expected to increase from 151К to 170К–176К. On the back of this forecast during the whole second half of the week the bears had been steadily pushing the pair down, to the support of 1.1120, specified by the experts. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the USA threw a curve: first, it adjusted its data for August - 151К instead of 167К, and then it announced that the print for September made 156К. Eventually, instead of expected rise we saw a drop, and ultimately EUR/USD pair returned to the last months’ pivot point – to the level of 1.1200, very quickly;


– last week we predicted decline of GBP/USD pair to the level of 1.2850, or even a greater decline to the low of July 06 to the level of 1.2795. But no one expected the thing happened on Friday – during Asian session trading the British currency plunged to the low seen in March 1985. Having started with the level of 1.2615, in just 3(!) minutes it fell down to 1.1840 at average. (It stopped declining at the level of 1.1940 with one brokers, and at the level of 1.1490, i.e. 450 points lower – with the others). As of this writing the analysts failed to achieve a consensus in respect of the reasons of such a collapse. For example, Bloomberg provided as many as six versions, and The Wall Street Journal reduced them to two versions, indicating robo traders and the president of France, François Hollande, who stated that Great Britain would be seriously affected by Brexit, as the main “suspects”. Afterwards the pound broke through the technical levels of support, which sharply increased currency sell-off by robo traders. The result of what mess these soulless computer programs can cause is, as they say, obvious. However, later with the assistance of people the pound went up again, but it was not easy to regain the losses of almost 1000 points quickly, and GBP/USD wrapped up the week at the level of 1.2430;


– as for USD/JPY, here the graphical analysis on D1 gave the most accurate forecast. As a reminder, it expressly indicated predominance of bullish sentiment and rise of the pair to the level of 104.00. That exactly what happened – gradually moving up, on Thursday the pair reached the high of 104.15, following which the bears regained 125 points and the pair froze at the support area of 102.90;


– USD/CHF. As expected, the pair continued consolidating at the area of 0.9700–0.9800. Supporting bullish sentiment, last Friday it tried to break through the main resistance of 0.9810, however soon it returned to the area, predetermined by the experts, and came into a weekend at the level of 0.9775.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– as EUR/USD is keeping within the medium-term pivot area – the level of 1.1200, the indicators on both H4 and D1 have taken a neutral stance. As for the analysts, 90% of them expect the pair to fall to the support of 1.1100, and then down to the area of 1.1000. The main resistance will be at the level of 1.1280. With this, we should keep in mind that the Minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee meeting (Wednesday, October 12), the outcome of the EU Extraordinary Economic Summit (Thursday, October 13), as well as data on US economy and speech of the Federal Reserve Chair, Janet Yellen, on Friday, October 14, can influence formation of a short-term trend;


– GBP/USD. It is clear that after last Friday events the experts only lift their hands in dismay. In such situation the readings of the graphical analysis are of interest, the one on D1 predicts returning of the pair first to the resistance of 1.2700, and then even higher – up to the area of 1.2850. The thing happened to USD/CHF after January 2015 crisis also votes in favor of this forecast fairness. As a reminder, that time the market had quickly overcome panic sentiment, and just in two months the pair had regained almost all losses. The graphical analysis on H4 provides an alternative version for GBP/USD. According to its readings the pair can continue its downtrend, which had started on September 06. In this case it will decline to the support of 1.2340, and then down to the level of 1.2120;


– USD/JPY. Here just like last week the opinions of the experts split almost equally: just under half of them vote for the pair’s rise, just over half – for its fall. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it predicts that early week the pair will go up to the resistance of 103.70–103.90, and then decline – first to the level of 102.70, and then – to 101.75. The bottom will be at the level of 100.75. As for the graphical analysis on D1, according to it, this week the pair can get to the high of 106.40, and only then reverse to the south and look for the support of 101.75;


– the forecast for USD/CHF can be made using copy paste for weeks. As before, drawing a triangular pennant, the pair continues gradual consolidation at the area of 0.9640–0.9660. With this, almost 80% of experts are sure that in the longer term the bulls will win the victory and the pair will breakout upwards, reaching the high of 1.0100.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Dear NordFX Clients!

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We invite everyone to take part in the promotion and get your bonus!

For more details, see http://nordfx.com/promo/refer_friend

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for October 31 – November 4, 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– giving forecast for EUR/USD, those 30% of experts, having suggested a possible rise of the pair, turned out to be right. As a reminder, such scenario was also backed by the graphical analysis, according to it a sideways movement of the pair within 1.0855–1.0915 should change to the upswing to the level of 1.0960. The level of 1.1100 was indicated as the next resistance level. Practically, that was exactly what happened: early in the week the pair was moving eastwards within the predetermined range, and then it went up, and toward the very end of the week it surged upward striving to reach the high of 1.1000. However, it failed to reach it, and it wrapped up the week 25 points above the first resistance level – at the level of 0.0985;


– GBP/USD. Here 80% of analysts reckoned that in the near future the pair would start declining first to the level of 1.2100, and then – to 1.2000. This happened on Tuesday, October 25, ahead of the speeches of the governor of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, and the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi. Just within 3 hours the pair lost almost 160 points and reached the bottom at the level of 1.2082, and then – in a similar rapid manner – it regained almost all losses, wrapping up the week around the one of the strongest October levels of support/resistance – at 1.2185;


– the forecast for USD/JPY could be reduced to two trends – first the pair’s rise to the level of 105.00, and then its declining to the support in the area of 103.20. Indeed, starting from Monday the pair went up and as early as Thursday it reached that high. On Friday it went up further 50 points, following which the bulls took well-deserved rest, and the bears, meeting almost no resistance, immediately pushed the pair 100 points down;


– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, the majority of analysts, indicators and the graphical analysis by common consent voted for another breakthrough of the pair to the north – up to the high of 1.0000, and then – rebound to the area of 0.9700-0.9800. The level of 0.9855 was indicated as the next support level. The forecast was if not 100%, then at least 99.98% accurately fulfilled, because the pair reached that very high of 0.9998 on Tuesday, October 25. The promised rebound also occurred – and exactly to the specified support as well. The pair ended the week at the level of 0.9875.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– notwithstanding last week’s rise of the pair, 70% of experts continue to insist that the pair should anyway go down at least to the level of 1.0800. As for the indicators on H4 and D1, they have taken a neutral stance. However, the graphical analysis on H4 reckons that the pair, having moved down to the level of 1.0900, will reverse again to the north and will move towards the resistance of 1.1100. Around 30% of analysts agree to this scenario. At the same time, we should keep in mind that the upcoming week is busy in terms of significant economic events, including release of the United States Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision on Wednesday, November 2, and release of Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) on Friday, November 4. The upcoming USA presidential elections, scheduled for November 8, should also be taken into account. All these events can lead to great exchange rate fluctuations, which is fraught with not only large profit but also huge risks for traders;


– next week not only the US Fed, but also the Bank of England will announce its Interest Rate Decision (Thursday, November 3), however, the analysts don’t expect any surprises from it. As for their opinion on GBP/USD, around 70% of them point to the south, predicting the fall of the pair to the level of 1.2000, and maybe even 100 points lower. The indicators and the graphical analysis on D1 fully concur with this opinion. However, the latter deems it possible that before going down the pair can rise to the resistance of 1.2250. The next resistance will be at 1.2330.


– USD/JPY. For a fifth week in a row the experts have no consensus on the future of this pair: 45% vote for the pair’s rise to the area of 105.50–106.00, 25% - for its fall to the support of 102.80 and 30% - for a sideways trend. As for the indicators and the graphical analysis, they reckon that the pair will try to re-approach the resistance of 105.50, and then will literally nosedive – first to the support of 104.00, and then even lower – to the area of 102.40–102.80. But, as with both foregoing cases, here you should keep in mind the significant news from the USA, and also release of the Interest Rate Decisions of the Bank of Japan on Tuesday, November 1;


– as for the forecast for USD/CHF, around 70% of analysts believe that the pair should definitely return to the level of 1. 0000.The remaining 30% reckon that it hasn’t finished its temporary decline to the area of 0.9700–0.9800. The graphical analysis on H4, which believes that the decline can be even greater, also agrees with this scenario, and the pair will reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680. There is also a third opinion, according to which, due to the events mentioned above, in the near future the pair will just mirror EUR/USD acting, a negative correlation with which is most noticeable during the periods of heightened volatility.



Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets and they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.



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[Julia NordFX]

X DAY - Tuesday, November 8, 2016

JP Morgan analysts believe that the dollar will weaken regardless of the US electoral outcome. In the event of Trump's victory, NordFX analysts forecast that its fall may reach 10-15%. If, on the other hand, Hillary Clinton wins, the fluctuation of all indicators may reach ± 5%.

The upcoming presidential election on November 8 could significantly change the situation in the US economy and consequently lead to major fluctuations of the dollar against other world currencies. The electoral platforms of the two major candidates for the US presidency, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, promise major changes in trade policies, according to Bloomberg. To add to this, according to analysts from JP Morgan Chase (one of the largest brokers) a victory of any of these candidates may result at the very least in increased tension between Washington and its partners, if not in outright trade wars. This carries the risk of a reorientation of investors from the dollar to other currencies.

A similar view is shared by Deutsche Bank, as well as HSBC and Credit Suisse. According to one of the leading strategists of the Credit Suisse New York branch, S. Jalinoos, the dollar should start cheapening right after the election.

A statement on USDJPY has been made by Bank of America Merrill Lynch experts as well, who expect that the election of Donald Trump will cause the dollar to fall in price relative to the appreciation of the Japanese currency.

The situation for GBPUSD is more complicated: on the one hand, there are disturbances associated with the UK exit from the EU, and on the other there is an equally large dose of uncertainty associated with the presidential election in the United States. Morgan Stanley Research believe that the dollar may well give way to the pound and that the pair will go up.

"We are certain to have trade conflicts under the next president,” says John Normand of JP Morgan. “These will be major in the case of Trump's victory and moderate in the case of Clinton’s." The same opinion is shared by analysts of the international brokerage company NordFX. In their view, if Donald Trump becomes US president the dollar could fall against the euro by an excess of 1000 points.

"If Hillary Clinton wins,” says NordFX chief analyst John Gordon, “volatility is likely to be smaller and will not exceed ± 5%. But these five percent for the EURUSD will make about 500 points.”

“Let's take a look at what usually happens after elections,” continues John Gordon. “In 2000, the Republican George W. Bush won, resulting in the dollar going into a sharp nosedive and losing about 5,300 points against the euro over the course of the year. The next election took place in 2004, and Bush won again. It would seem that nothing should have changed but, on the contrary, the pair made a U-turn inspired by his new electoral campaign promises, and it only took two months for the US currency to rise by 2000 points. In the 2008 election, Democrat Barack Obama became President, which resulted in the trend changing again: the dollar dropped more than 2350 points in six weeks. The Obama re-election in 2012 brought one more turn and a bounce upwards of 1050 points in less than three months.”

“And note,” stresses the NordFX expert, “a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins - the Republicans or the Democrats. I am confident that this election will not be an exception. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months - as long as investors do not completely figure out which of the electoral promises of the new President will be met, and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, allowing one to earn good money.

At this moment, we can expect a powerful movement of not only currencies rates, but also of stock market indices and of US company shares, and these movements will begin almost immediately as soon as the first preliminary results of the vote count are made public. In this situation, traders should allocate their financial assets very wisely and should be alert, so as not to miss the utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 07 - 11, 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Giving our forecast for EUR/USD, we warned that it will be the political ratherthan economic situationthat would determine all dollar pair trends in the run up to the presidential elections in the United States. That is what has been happening. Any shift of the American electorate in favour of Donald Trump played against the dollar. As a result, surprisingly, the most accurate forecast was given not by experts, but... by graphical analysis, which predicted the growth of the pair to the resistance level of 1.1100, which was reached on Wednesday, November 2. Then, turning this resistance into a Pivot level, the pair moved to a sideways trend and finished the week at 1.1140;

- GBP/USD. The situation with this pair proved to be similar to what happened to EUR/USD. In this case an additional bullish hand was played by the UK High Court ruling, which said that Prime Minister Theresa May cannot start the process of the UK leaving the EU without a vote in Parliament. As a result, the pair broke all expected resistance levelsand rose to the level of 1.2517;

- With regard to the forecast for USD/JPY, technical analysis also proved to be as accurate ascan realistically be expected. As a reminder, indicator and graphical analysis suggested that the pair would again try to move closer to the resistance level of 105.50,after which it would literally collapse - first to the support level of 104.00 and then even lower - to the102.40-102.80 zone. If we look at the chart, we see that this prediction came true by almost 100% - the pair started Monday by moving northwards, but after reaching 105.22 it turned around. On Tuesday it flew down, slowed down for a few hours in the104.00 area andreached itslow point at the level of 102.54 on Thursday. Then, after a small correction, the pair settled down and moved to a sideways trend, moving in the 102.82-103.35 channel;

- Graphical analysis turned out to be 100% correctin its forecast for USD/CHF as well. It clearly pointed out that the pair would reach the bottom at the level of 0.9680: at the end of the week-long session it obediently stopped with this precise value being displayed on the monitor.

***

Forecast for the Upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- In anticipation of the upcoming Presidential election in the United States on Tuesday November 8, it is a fruitless task to make any forecasts on dollar pairs. That is why more than 60% of the experts just shrug when speaking about the near future of EUR/USD. As for the indicators, they almost unanimously insist on the growth of the pair in agreement with those analysts who predict a fall of the dollar by more than 1000 points in theevent Donald Trump wins the election. But, judging by the fact that 85% of experts suggest growth of the dollar in the medium-term, they are inclined to believe that Hillary Clinton will be elected new US President. In this case, according to them, the pair can go down about 500 points and reach the mark of 1.0600;

- The opinion of analysts on the future of GBP/USD is also quite vague. About 50% of them, together with indicators, look to the north, 35% look to the south andthe remaining 15%, supported by graphical analysis on D1, look to the east. It is worth mentioning that there is no consensus in the medium term either – a certain clarity will only emerge following the results of the American election. However, there may be serious corrections of trends depending on the situation with the UK exit from the European Union;

- USD/JPY. The experts are split in their forecast exactly halfway, with one half of them expecting growth and the othera fall. The reasons for this are clear and have been described above. As for a longer term forecast, almost 70% of analysts believe the dollar will strengthen and the pair will grow at least to the 106.00-107.00 zone;

- And finally the last pair of our review - USD/CHF. Here the opinion of the experts is almost unanimous: more than 90% of them believe that the pair will certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agrees with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target.

In conclusion, let me mention the opinion of NordFX senior analyst John Gordon. "Analysis ofprevious presidential elections in the United States shows,” stresses the NordFX expert, “that a bounce always takes place, regardless of who wins,be it the Republicans or the Democrats. Most likely, the post-election trend, as before, will last for 2-3 months, ie for as long as investorstake to figure out which out which of their electoral promisesthe new President will fulfil and which will merely remain words on paper. This is a very good period for traders, giving one the opportunity to earn good money. In this situation, traders should manage their financial assets very wisely and should remain alert, so as not to miss the chance to utilise 100% of these new trade opportunities."

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets - they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 14 - 18, 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- In anticipation of the US Presidential election, most experts simply refused to make any predictions on USD pairs. However, in the medium-term forecast, expecting the victory of Hillary Clinton 85% of experts predicted growth in the dollar and a decline of the EUR/USD pair. As a reminder, during the entire second half of October, forecasts were based on the pair's progress to the level of 1.0800. Come November 8, Donald Trump becomes President of the United States and the pair quickly climbed 300 points to the level of 1.1300. Then, as if his rival won the election, it collapsed just as quickly, reaching the trough at 1.0830 on Friday;

- Similar forecasts and uncertainty were observed with respect to GBP/USD as well. As a result, in spite of the American election, the pair managed to hold out in the corridor of 1.2350-1.2550 for most of the week. Only at the end of the week, having broken through the upper boundary of the channel, it went on northward. As a result, whilst the election led to the dollar strengthening against the euro, it also led to it surrendering to the British pound;

- USD/JPY. Speaking about the future of this pair, 70% of analysts predicted growth of the pair to the 106.00-107.00 zone, which is what happened: it is in this range that the pair finished this hectic week;

- More than 90% of the experts believed that the USD/CHF pair should certainly go back to 1.0000-1.0100 marks. Graphical analysis agreed with this opinion as well, naming 0.9820 as the first target. This forecast can also be considered fulfilled: having survived the first shock of Trump's election, the pair returned to the set trend, reaching the resistance of 0.9820 by Thursday. It then broke through it to approach the level of 0.9900.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can suggest the following:

- It is clear that all indicators on H4 and D1 are looking southwards when predicting the future of EUR/USD. But most experts have an opposite opinion: about 70% of them believe that the pair should return to the level of 1.1000. Graphical analysis found a compromise between the computer and the human mind - it indicates an initial fall of the pair to the level of 1.0800, followed by a rise to 1.1055. After that, according to its forecast, the pair will go down again to the support level of 1.0850. As for analysts, when giving their medium-term forecast 70% of them named the zone of 1.0600-1.0750 as the trough;

- Analysts are split exactly halfway on the future of GBP/USD. 50% of them, in full agreement with the indicators, say that the pair will target the 1.3000 mark. The other half expects it to descend to the support in the area of 1.2380. As for the readings of graphical analysis, they suggest that the pair has reached its local maximum and is now expected to fall. The support levels are 1.2380 and 1.2150;

- Experts expect a decline for the pair USD/JPY as well. According to the vast majority of them (90%), the pair should go down to the zone of 104.00-104.50. However, developments of the political situation in the United States and the statements of the new President Elect will certainly influence local trends;

- And finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. This time, experts have shown a striking unanimity - 100% of them have pointed to the north, calling the height of 0.9950 the immediate goal. However, graphical analysis on H4 says that before starting to climb, the pair may stay in the side channel 0.9810-0.9910 for some time.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be considered a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets as they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for November 21-25, 2016.


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


- It is clear that the dynamics of the dollar exchange rates are now largely determined by the actions of the US President-Elect Donald Trump, which have thus far been driving a continuing strengthening of the American currency. As a reminder, in the medium term forecast the vast majority of experts (70%) predicted a decline in the EUR/USD pair to the area of 1.0600-1.0750. However, the reality has surpassed all expectations as the pair had already managed to reach these values by last week, stopping at around 1.0588 on Friday night;


- Regarding the forecast for GBP/USD, 50% of analysts with the support of graphical analysis thought that the pair had reached its local maximum at 1.2670. They therefore expected it to fall at the very least to the support level of 1.2380, or even lower. That was what happened: last week, the pair, having lost more than 300 points, reached its bottom at around 1.2300;


- USD/JPY: citing the opinion of experts about a possible decline of the pair to the 104.00-104.50 area, we immediately qualified the statement by saying that, as with the previous cases, the trend direction here would depend on what the future US President would say and do. As a result, contrary to the forecasts of analysts, the dollar managed to significantly strengthen against the yen - by the end of the week the pair was ready to take the height of 111.00. However, it never actually managed to complete this ascent, ending the session at 110.90;


- For several months, experts expected the return of USD/CHF to the 1.0000-1.0100 range. This opinion was almost unanimous: 90% to 100% of analysts agreed with this forecast, and it was finally realised this week: on Monday the pair reached the landmark 1.0000 level, turning it into a Pivot Point for three days before rushing upwards. It ended the week in the 1.0100 area.


***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can suggest the following:


- It is clear that all indicators on H4 and D1 are looking southwards when predicting the future of EUR/USD. At the same time, however, more than half of the oscillators indicate the overselling of the pair, which could imply a possible correction. 40% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 agree with this. They believe that before it continues to fall, the pair may first rise to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. As for the local low point, the most commonly cited level is the 2015 low of 1.0450. However, about 15% of analysts remark that we cannot exclude the possibility of full parity within the next few months (i.e. that the pair would settle at the 1.0000 mark);


- Similarly to the case of EUR/USD, the indicators predict a decline of the GBP/USD pair, with a quarter of them indicating an overselling. Experts also cannot agree in their forecasts: 40% of them maintain that the pair will fall, 40% think it will grow, and the remaining 20% foresee a sideways trend. If we add the indications of graphical analysis on H4 to the above, we can presume that the pair will potentially move laterally for a short while within the 1.2270-1.2440 channel, with the Pivot level being 1.2330. In the long-term, however, a majority of 60% of analysts predict that the pair will fall, naming 1.2100 and 1.1940 as support levels;


- USD/JPY: Despite last week's steady growth, almost 60% of experts continue to expect a decline of the pair, naming 107.50 and 105.50 as target levels. The observation that the pair has been overbought, as almost a third of the oscillators suggest, makes it possible to talk about a trend reversal. However, graphical analysis tells us that the pair may spend some time moving sideways within the boundaries of 108.55-112.00, having a Pivot level of 110.00;


- After USD/CHF reached its long-sought target of 1.0000-1.0100, the indicators started showing that this pair was overbought as well, suggesting, therefore, that it can be expected to fall to the level of 0.9900. The main resistance in this case is located at the level of 1.0135. 45% of experts and graphical analysis on H4 agree with this judgement. As for the remaining analysts, they hold the belief that the dollar's potential is far from exhausted: we should expect it to continue strengthening and striving to the heights of January 2016, which are located in the 1.0260 area.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Note: These materials should not be deemed as a recommendation for particular investments or as guidance for working on financial markets as they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF 28 November - 02 December 2016.


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


- As a reminder, last week more than half of oscillators indicated the overselling of the EUR/USD pair, which gave a reason to talk about a temporary pause in the pair’s southward movement. And so it happened. However, this can hardly be called a correction. It will be more precise to talk about a transition to a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 1.0585. The pair has not yet been able to reach its goal, the minimum of 2015 at 1.0450, and has finished the week in the same place where it began: in the area of the Pivot level;


- With regard to the forecast for GBP/USD, 40% of analysts were in favour of the pair’s growth, whilst 20% favoured a sideways channel. Graphical analysis indicated the levels of 1.2270 and 1.2440 as boundaries of such a channel. The pair has indeed failed to cross the lower boundary and on Monday leapt upwards by 200 points, turning the level of 1.2440 into a Pivot Point. It moved along it for all four remaining days;


- However, USD/JPY has surely disappointed those 60% experts who had expected its decline. It moved sideways until mid-Wednesday, fluctuating slightly, almost as if it was wondering what direction to choose. The news that came from the US dispelled its doubts, and the pair went up sharply, rising by nearly 300 points. In total, over the past three weeks, the yen lost more than 1000 points to the dollar;


- USD/CHF: the experts' opinions diverged regarding the behaviour of this pair: 55% voted in favour of its growth, 45% voted for its fall. As a result, as is often the case, the pair mirrored the behaviour of EUR/USD, having returned to Monday’s values on Friday.


***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- In their forecast for EUR/USD, all the indicators split themselves into two groups: the predictions on H4 foretell a sideways trend, whilst D1 clearly indicates a southward one. The opinion of the latter is supported by the vast majority (70%) of analysts, who identify the levels of 1.0500 and 1.0460 as potential support levels. The remaining 30% of experts believe that the pair will still rebound up to the 1.0650-1.0700 area. A compromise solution is offered by graphical analysis which draws a sideways channel with a quite wide range of 1.0500-1.0720. It should be kept in mind that on Friday 2 December the US employment data change (NFP) will be published, which is usually accompanied by significant dollar pairs spikes;


- Forecasts for GBP/USD suggest a lateral movement of this pair with a predominance of bullish trend. Such statements are based both on the readings of the indicators (65% are for growth, 35% have taken a neutral position), and on the opinion of analysts (35% are for growth, 35% predict a decline, 30% remain neutral). As for graphical analysis on D1, it suggests that the pair has reached its local maximum, and is now expected to decline first to the level of 1.2070, and then even lower to the support of 1.1945. The nearest resistance is in 1.2495-1.2515 zone; the next resistance levels are 1.2560 and 1.2675;


- USD/JPY: The forecast for this pair is almost completely identical to the one given for the previous week. Indicators clearly show the pair's growth, with half of the oscillators indicating that the pair is overbought. 55% of experts continue to expect a decline of the pair. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4 as well, which points to respective support levels at 111.35, 110.80 and 109.80. As for the resistance levels, W1 and D1 clearly show that the pair has reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary is within the 113.80-114.85 range, whilst the lower one, 110.80, coincides with the readings of graphical analysis;


- USD/CHF: It is clear that almost 100% of indicators look upward. The analysts’ opinions are the following: 45% predict growth, 30% a decline, and 25% a lateral trend. The latter opinion is also supported by graphical analysis, which points to a sideways movement in the 1.0100-1.01900 channel. The next resistance is at 1.0200 and the support levels are at 1.0060 and 1.0000. At the same time, we can reasonably assume a high chance that this week, just as in the previous one, the pair’s behaviour will once again constitute a mirror image of that of EUR/USD.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets; they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and it can lead to loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 05 - 09 December 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- With a few minor allowances, last week's forecast for EUR/USD can be considered fulfilled. As a reminder, the indicators on H4 predicted a sideways trend, one third of the experts expected the pair to rebound into the 1.0650-1.0700 area, and the remainder referred to the level of 1.0500 as a support level. Graphical analysis pointed to the sideways channel in the 1.0500-1.0720 range. The pair did, in fact, end up spending the whole week traveling eastwards. However, the pair never actually managed to reach the aforementioned support level: this week’s low-point was 50 points higher at 1.0551. However, it entered the resistance zone three times, reaching the level of 1.0690 on Friday;

- The forecast for GBP/USD was talking about a lateral movement of this pair with a dominant bullish trend. However, it turned out that the "dominant" did not do the bulls justice as a descriptor. From Monday to Wednesday the pair, as expected, was moving sideways, oscillating in the 1.2385-1.2530 range. After that, however the bulls, regaining their strength, made a great stride northwards, and in a matter of hours won 200 points from the bears. As a result, the pair finished the week at the level of 1.2730;

- Giving the outlook for USD/JPY, we noted that the pair had reached the corridor where it was moving in February-March 2016. Its upper boundary was within 113.80-114.85, whilst the lower boundary was at 110.80. At the same time, resting on the assumption that the pair was overbought, 55% of the experts expected a decline of the pair at least to the level of 111.35. That is exactly what happened. On Monday, the pair went down precisely to the aforementioned support, then turned around and went to the upper boundary of the corridor, stopping at the height of 114.82. Then it rebounded and completed the week’s session in the 113.50 area;

- USD/CHF. Here, as it often happens, graphical analysis proved to be almost 100 percent accurate, pointing to a sideways trend within the 1.0100-1.0190 range. In fact, the pair kept within the 1.0070-1.0200 range, meaning that the forecast error did not exceed the typical margin of 25-30 points.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, the indicators on H4 actively recommend its purchase. D1 indicators, on the other hand, have taken a neutral position. 65% of analysts tend to the view that the pair will again test the December 2015 low at 1.0510 and will possibly descend to the March 2015 low of 1.0460. As for graphical analysis, it clarifies that a significant upward rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone may follow. It should be noted that at the time of this forecast’s writing the results of the referendum in Italy are still unknown. It is only natural to assume that these results can make significant adjustments to the determination of euro currency pair rates;

- It is absolutely clear that when predicting the future of GBP/USD almost all indicators point to the growth of the pair, with only a fifth of the oscillators saying that it is overbought. However, the opinion of the majority of experts (65%) and graphical analysis on D1 is diametrically opposite. According to their forecast, the pair must first descend to the level of 1.2510 and then proceed to go even lower to the support at 1.2385 and 1.2300. The resistance will be in the 1.2865-1.3015 zone;

- USD/JPY. Just as in the GBP/USD case, the indicators suggest purchasing the pair and the majority of experts (55%) recommend selling it. Graphical analysis seems to provide a compromise view: according to its readings, the pair will continue to fluctuate within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In other words, it will first rise again to the upper border of 114.85 and then fall to the level of 110.80;

- Now onto USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 vote for the fall of the pair at least to the level of 1.0000, or indeed even lower to the 0.9900 vicinity. An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 30% of analysts and the indicators on D1: according to them the pair will continue to stay in the side channel in the range 1.0070-1.0200 for some time.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options http://nordfx.com/

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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY and USDCHF for 12-16 December 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Last week’s forecast for EUR/USD considered a number of scenarios, all of which came true with a close to 100% accuracy.

Let us start with the fact that on December 2, when giving an interview to one of the world’s reputable financial publications, NordFX Senior Analyst John Gordon warned that, in connection with the referendum in Italy, it was likely that there would be a gap at the opening of the week's session. He also said that, despite the increased volatility, nothing close to the exchange rate jumps following Brexit would occur. This forecast proved to be true.

65% of surveyed analysts believed that the pair would once again test the end-of-year low of 2015 at the level of 1.0510. On Monday, the pair indeed fell to the 1.0505 mark. Graphical analysis specified that this might be followed by a serious rebound to the resistance in the 1.0900 zone. And on Thursday, following the news from the ECB, the pair rose to the level of 1.0873. Then it went down to the main support line for the end of November, consistent with the indicator readings on D1, which had been suggesting a medium-term sideways trend;


- As for the behaviour of GBP/USD, there was a dispute last week between the indicators and the experts. Most of the former pointed to the north, even though they signalled that the pair was overbought. The latter insisted that the pair should go down at least to the level of 1.2510. They turned out to be closer to the truth. Despite the slight increase in the pair at the beginning of the week, starting Tuesday it abruptly went down- by Friday it had lost more than 200 points;

- The main forecast for USD/JPY was based on the fact that the pair would continue fluctuations within the boundaries of the February-March 2016 corridor. In general, this version proved to be correct, with some predominance of bullish sentiment towards the end of the week;

- USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and 80% of indicators on H4 voted for the pair's drop to at least the level of 1.0000. On Thursday, as predicted, the pair fell to the 1.0020 mark. After completing the task, it seemed to have decided to appease the remaining 30% of analysts, who spoke of a sideways trend, and rose first to the lower border (1.0070) and then to the top border (1.0200) of the aforementioned channel.


***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- Predicting the future of EUR/USD, most indicators are actively advocating the sale of this pair even though on H4 25% of them say it is oversold. The analysts are divided along the following lines: 50% believe in the pair’s upward rebound, 35% support a continuation of the downward trend, and the remaining 15% vote for its lateral movement. Graphical analysis, as it often happens, points to a compromise. According to its readings, the pair may first rebound to the 1.0650 resistance and then continue to the south - first to the 1.0510 support and then, perhaps, even further to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 vicinity. At the same time, we must note that a decision by the US Federal Reserve on the interest rate is pending on Wednesday 14 December, and if it is finally increased, it could significantly strengthen the dollar against other world currencies;

- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, some 60% of experts believe that the pair will go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. However, as in the case of EUR/USD, a number of indicators say it is oversold. Thus, it can be assumed that the pair will stay in a lateral channel within 1.2550-1.2700 for a while. Both indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this;

- USD/JPY. Most likely, for the first half of the week the pair will try to stay within the boundaries of the horizontal corridor, which it first entered two weeks ago. Its more distant future, as mentioned above, will be determined by the decision of the US Federal Reserve on interest rates, in anticipation of which the bullish sentiment will continue to dominate. The support levels are 114.40, 113.10, 112.00. The resistance levels are at 116.70 and 118.70;

- USD/CHF. Here, 70% of experts, graphical analysis, and most indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair will continue to grow. The 2015 maximum (1.0300) is hailed as the target. After it is reached, according to graphical analysis readings, the pair may once again fall into the 1.0050-1.0115 zone.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for

19 - 23 December 2016


First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week, which has been almost 100% correct for all four pairs:

- The final forecast for the EUR/USD pair last week was as follows: first a rebound to the resistance at 1.0650 and then a drop to the March 2015 lows in the 1.0460 area. It also suggested a strengthening of the downward trend in the event the US Federal Reserve decided to increase interest rates. This forecast can be considered fulfilled almost completely. At the beginning of the week, as expected, the pair rose to the level of 1.0650 and then made several attempts to break higher, but was unable to overcome the 1.0670 bar. The decision of the Federal Reserve on Wednesday, 14th December delivered the expected strengthening of the dollar, and the pair initially fell to the level of 1.0470 and then even lower to 1.0366. The pair reached 1.0449 by the end of the week’s session;

- The forecast for GBP/USD stated that the pair would stay in the sideways channel of 1.2550-1.2700 for some time in the beginning of the week. It would then go down to the 1.2400-1.2500 zone. That was what actually ended up happening, allowing for a standard sway of 25 points;

- With regard to USD/JPY, a rather quiet start of the week dominated by slight bullish sentiment was assumed. Then, after the decision of the US Federal Reserve, we assumed a rise to the resistance at 118.70. This prediction proved to be correct, and on Thursday, 15th December, the pair reached a height of 118.66 before proceeding to move sideways, finishing the week in the 117.90 zone;

- The forecast for USD/CHF has not been disappointing either. According to most experts, graphical analysis, and indicators on H4 and D1, the pair was supposed to revisit the 2015 maximum of 1.0300. That is what it did, even managing to exceed the expectations of the task by reaching a height of 1.0343.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and brokerage companies, as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


- A few months ago, we published the opinions of a number of experts suggesting that EUR/USD would seek to achieve an exchange rate parity of 1.0000 in the upcoming year (2017). It seems that this forecast is coming true. At least 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 believe that in the near future the pair will continue to fall at least to the 1.0300-1.0350 area. It is worth noting that the pair has fallen so low that, when determining the support level, it is necessary to work not just with the data for the last two years, but also with that from 1997-2003.

An alternative point of view is expressed by the remaining 40% of experts and the numerous oscillators, which indicate that the pair has been oversold. According to their forecast, the pair has reached its local minimum, so in the foreseeable future will be moving in a sideways channel with a Pivot Point of 1.0500;


- With regard to the future of GBP/USD, 60% of experts and the majority of indicators support the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. At the same time, graphical analysis clarifies that the pair may stay in a sideways corridor within 1.2360-1.2560 for some more time before the decline. It should be noted, however, that when giving a medium-term forecast, 70% of analysts believe that the pair should sink to the level of 1.2100;

- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators point northwards. However, a third of the oscillators indicates the pair has been overbought. Graphical analysis points to a possible downwards rebound as well, naming 115.45, 114.80 and 113.90 as support levels. As for the experts, 30% of them believe that the pair will grow to a height of 120.00. The majority, though, expect a sideways trend with a Pivot Point of 118.00;

- USD/CHF. More than half of the experts believe that the pair will try to gain a foothold above 1.0300, the main resistance being 1.0410. Graphical analysis on D1 and 95% of indicators on D1 and H4 agree with this point of view. The main support is 1.0200, with the next one being at 1.0150.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 26-30 December 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- Giving the forecast for the EUR/USD pair, 60% of analysts, 85% of indicators, and graphical analysis on D1 pointed out that the pair should continue to fall to the 1.0300-1.0350 area at the very least. That was indeed what happened: on Monday the pair descended drastically and hit 1.0351 the next day, short of the intended target by just 1 point. Evidently deciding that it fulfilled its task, the pair rebounded and returned to the values of the beginning of the week;

- The forecast for the GBP/USD pair may also be considered fulfilled by at least 90%, if not 100%. Recall that the majority of experts voted for the continuation of the downward trend, naming the support at 1.2300 as the nearest target. This was reached by the pair on Thursday. After this, the support changed roles, becoming resistance. The pair rebounded off it and subsequently fell by 50 points;

- USD/JPY. Here, one third of oscillators and graphical analysis suggested a possible downwards rebound of the pair. As for the analysts, most foresaw a sideways trend with a Pivot Point at 118.00. The fact that the pair was overbought did indeed push it down at the very start of the week’s session. Then, having rebounded off the level of 116.55 as was expected by the experts, it returned to the 118.00 zone and shifted to a slightly bear-dominated lateral movement of diminishing amplitude;

- USD/CHF. Here, more than half of experts, supported by graphical analysis on D1, and 95% indicators on H4 and D1, suggested that the pair would try to gain a foothold above the level of 1.0300. However, it seems that the proximity of the Christmas holidays weakened the strength of bulls so significantly, that having reached the height of 1.0320, the pair almost immediately turned around and returned to the values of Monday, where it stayed until the end of the week.

***

The forecast for the upcoming week - the last one before the New Year:

The market’s major players have already summed up the year, and most analysts have already left for Christmas. Therefore, the forecast for this festive week is based mainly on technical analysis. No major events that could shake the financial markets, are expected in the coming days, and traders can expect a very quiet and relaxing five days ahead. Unless, of course, something extraordinary happens.

- The medium-term forecast that analysts released last week does not give a clear picture of the future of EUR/USD: 35% of them predict an upward trend, 40% a downward trend, and 25% a side movement. As for technical analysis, graphical analysis on H4, and the vast majority of trend indicators and oscillators, all of them point eastwards. Those on D1, on the other hand, indicate to the south. Based on the above, we can assume that next week the pair will move in a sideways channel in the 1.0350-1.0520 range. As for its further decline, it is necessary to take into account that at present the pair is near the bottom border of the side corridor, which was launched back in February-March 2015, and that any future strengthening of the dollar will largely depend on the actions of team of the US President elect, Donald Trump;


- In contrast to the European currency, analysts consider the British pound’s future to be more definite. Thus, in the medium term, 65% of them support a fall in GBP/USD down to the October low of 1.1940, and only 5% expect the pair's growth. 100% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with the majority of experts. However, on a shorter timeframe - specifically H4 - the forecast for the coming week includes a flat trend in the 1.2215-1.2325 range. The next resistance is at 1.2375;

- USD/JPY. It is clear that most of the indicators on D1 point northwards, with which their colleagues on H4 disagree, indicating the pair to be oversold. This opinion is shared by graphical analysis on H4, which sketches a decline of the pair to 115.50, followed by a rebound the previous week’s values in the 117.50 zone. As for the graphical analysis on D1, it foresees a lateral channel with support at 116.50 (should that be ruptured the new support will be 115.50) and resistance at 119.00. Here we can mention the upcoming speech of the Governor of the Bank of Japan Haruhiko Kuroda on Monday, 26 December - that is unlikely to seriously influence the behaviour of this pair;

- Opinions on the future of USD/CHF tend mostly towards the pair’s growth to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. This point of view is shared not only by three-quarters of analysts, but also by indicators on H4 and D1, as well as by graphical analysis using a daily time-frame. An alternative view is supported by 25% of experts and graphical analysis on H4. In their opinion, the pair should once again test the December low at 1.0000.

The next forecast will be devoted to the events of the first week of January. Dear colleagues, it seems, therefore, that now would be the time to wish you a Happy New Year!

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 02-06 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– We know that "thin" market and low liquidity in the pre New Year's week can work wonders. For the first half of the week the EUR/USD pair, as expected, remained in a slow sideways trend. Then on Wednesday, it slumped 100 points. On Thursday it played back what it lost.Then,the beginning of the Asian session on Friday presented the traders a "New Year" surprise - in just one hour, for no apparent reason, the pair made a sharp leap upwards and hit 1.0655, after which it returned to the levels of support of the second half of November;

–Theforecast for GBP/USD predicted the pair's movement in the side channel in the range of 1.2215-1.2325.1.2375 was identified as the week's high. In general, this forecast proved to be correct - for the whole week the pair oscillated in the range 1.2200-1.2305, and on Friday, breaking through the upper boundary of the corridor, it reached the height of 1.2385;

– For USD/JPY, graphical analysis on D1 anticipated the movement of the pair in the channel 116.50-119.00, whilst H4 suggested the channel 115.50-117.50. It turned out that the first was right in determining the local minimum - 116.30, and the latter was right regarding the maximum - 117.80;

– USD/CHF. Here, 75% of experts, supported by indicators H4 and D1 and technical analysis on the daily time frame, voted for the pair to grow to the 1.0300-1.0400 area. By the middle of the week, it actually did rise to the height of 1.0320. The remaining 25% of experts expected a decline of the pair to the December low at 1.0000, and on Friday, mirror copying the behaviour of EUR/USD, the pair rushed down, reaching the bottom at the level of 1.0059.

***

Forecast for the upcoming week:

Summing up the opinions of a number of analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:


– The consensus of analysts in the first week of the New Year can be called unique - 100% voted for the fall of the EUR/USD and its return to the zone 1.0350-1.04800, Pivot Point at 1.0430. Graphical analysis and oscillators on the D1 agree with such a forecast, indicating that the pair is overbought. As for the graphical analysis on H4, it does not rule out that prior tofalling, the pair may attempt to re-test the 1.0655 high of December 30;

– In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expect the movement of the pair southwards - to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. Indicators and graphical analysis on D1 agree with this version as well. But as for a shorter time frame, H4, the picture is diametrically opposite - in the short term technical analysis points to a possible growth of the pair to the resistance 1.2380 and further - to a height of 1.2500;

– USD/JPY. The vast majority of indicators (70%) have taken a neutral position. Readings of graphical analysis on H4 can be called neutral as well, they point to a sideways trend in the range of 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. 80% of analysts are also on the bulls' side. An alternative view is represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair must first go down to the 114.75 support and only then rush to the height of 118.65. In case of breaking down, the next support level is at 113.10;

– Most likely, next week the USD/CHF pair will continue to mirror the movement of EUR/USD. That is why 100% of experts predict it to rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area. As for technical analysis, as it often happens, the indicators on H4 and D1 have occupied opposite positions. Whilst analysis on D1 supportsthe analysts,on H4, oscillators, trend indicators as well as graphical analysis indicate the pair'sdrive toward the 1.0000 mark.

Roman Butko, NordFX

Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.

#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 09-13 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


– Recall that in the first week of the New Year analysts demonstrated a unique consensus: 100% believed that the EUR/USD would fall to the 1.0350-1.04800 area. They turned out to be 100% correct. On Monday the pair crept up to the level of 1.0480, and on Tuesday, having mobilized all their forces, the bears blitzed to the south and literally dropped the pair to the 1.3400 mark. However, this task proved to be exhausting and the bulls were able to not only win back the lost positions, but also return the pair to the Pivot Point of the last eight weeks of 2016 in the 1.0525 area;


– In the case of GBP/USD, most experts (75%) also expected a southward movement of the pair to the October lows in the 1.2080 zone. The pair rushed down straight away on Monday. However, after failing to break the 1.2200 support, it made a meteoric rise of 230 points, followed by a no less dizzying drop of 170 points and eventually finished the week at 1.2275, the place where it spent most of the last ten days of December;


– For USD/JPY, 80% of analysts, supported by 70% of indicators and graphical analysis on H4, assumed a sideways trend within 116.00-118.65 with a predominance of bullish sentiment. They turned out to be right - for the whole first half of the week, the pair moved exactly like that, reaching the height of 118.60 on Tuesday. An alternative view was represented by graphical analysis on D1. According to its readings, the pair was supposed to first go down to the support at 114.75, which is what happened, but only on Friday. Having felt the local minimum at 115.05, it rebounded upwards and the week ended in the same place where it began: in the 117.00 zone;


– USD/CHF. The forecast for this pair was absolutely correct as well. Recall that 100% of experts predicted its rise to the 1.0220-1.0320 area, and on Tuesday the pair obediently reached the height of 1.0334. As for technical analysis, both oscillators and trend indicators as well as graphical analysis on H4 indicated the pair's strive to the 1.0000 mark. As a result, the rise was followed by a sharp descent of 250 points. However, the pair didn't manage to reach the level of 1.0000, and having turned around at 1.0086, like USD / JPY, returned to the values of the beginning of the week.


***

Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:


– Speaking about the near future for the EUR/USD, 60% of analysts believe that the level of 1.0525 should become the resistance for the pair, fighting from which the pair will occasionally go down to the 1.0350 support zone. The 1.0400 horizon should become a Pivot Point in this side channel. Having said that, graphical analysis on D1 does not exclude that, before going down, the pair can try again to climb to the height of 1.0650 at the start of the week.

It should also be borne in mind that certain adjustments in the formation of the medium-term trends can be made by the ECB meeting, press conference by Donald Trump in the middle of the week and the speech of the US Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen at the end of the week. As for the long-term outlook, most analysts expect the pair to decrease by the end of 2017 to the level of 1.0000 and even below parity, to 0.9000;


– Regarding the behaviour of GBP/USD, there is no consensus either among experts or among trend indicators and oscillators. About one third of them vote for an increase, a third support a fall and the rest believe the pair will move to the east. When it comes to the readings of graphical analysis, on D1 it points to the side corridor in the range of 1.2270-1.2430 for this week. If it succeeds in breaking the upper border of the channel, the pair may rise by another 100 points: to the level of 1.2530. As for the forecast for the coming months, about 70% of experts vote for the decline of the pair to last year's lows in the area of 1.1950-1.2000;


–USD/JPY. As the Bank of Japan is likely to maintain a similar direction in monetary policy, the behaviour of this pair will largely depend on the actions of the new US administration. That is why, as in the case with the GBP/USD, it is impossible to compile some sort of consensus from analysts opinions. However, in the medium term bullish sentiment prevails associated with the strengthening of the dollar and the pair’s efforts to reach 120.00 and beyond. As for graphical analysis, on H4 it suggests a movement of the pair in the 115.00-118.60 channel, and on D1 it does not preclude its temporary decline to the 113.00 area;


–Finally, the last pair of our review: USD/CHF. Despite the discord of indicators more inclined to sell, the vast majority of experts (75%) believe that the pair will eventually go up to the 1.2000-1.3000 area and even higher - to the December highs at the height of 1.3400. The reason for such expectations is understandable. Namely, it is the strengthening of the dollar due to Trump administration's actions and interest rate hikes planned by the US Fed in 2017.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading on financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/

 

[Julia NordFX]

10 Threats to European Currencies

2016 has been marked by a number of events that strongly affected financial markets. First and foremost is, of course, Brexit, the election of Donald Trump as US President, as well as persistent rumours of a possible disintegration of the European Union, which have seriously changed the balance of forces in the struggle of major world currencies.

So what should be expected from the pound, dollar, euro and yen in the new 2017?


With respect to the European currency, the forecasts look rather pessimistic. Referring to the European Central Bank (ECB) data, The Wall Street Journal estimates that capital outflows from the euro area reached their highest level since the introduction of the euro in 1999, and the currency itself has updated 13 years’ lows.

According to analysts, chances of an ECB interest rate increase do not exist, while the US Federal Reserve (Fed) not only lifted the rate by 0.25% in mid-December 2016, but also foresees three other similar increases throughout 2017.

Citigroup specialists expect the US currency to continue to grow. Further to that, the bank's strategist Todd Elmer said in an interview with Bloomberg: “We might see a much more rapid appreciation of the dollar than many in the market expect." The reason for this, in the first place, lies in the fact that the Fed will raise rates at a faster pace than initially expected. The head of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen has noted that the rise in rates is a sign of confidence in the American economy, and that the Fed will take into account a possible increase in tax incentives promised by President Trump.

"It is possible,” says the leading analyst of the NordFX brokerage company John Gordon, “that in the context of the events that may occur in Europe, Brexit will seem like a nuisance. For some reason, only the upcoming elections in Germany and France and the migrant crisis are usually talked about when listing risks. But in fact, the list of threats that the euro faces is far from exhausted by them. I can name at least another six or seven.”

“Someone has decided all of a sudden that the economic crisis in Greece reached its peak in the summer of 2015. But this is not true – it suffices to say that at the end of 2016, the tax debt of Greek residents reached an astronomical figure for the country of 94.2 billion euros. It is quite probable that this will very soon 100 billion, while there is no reason to expect opposite, positive dynamics.”

“Financial problems similar to the Greek ones can be seen in Italy and Spain. Only, unlike the Greek case, they are intensified by separatist sentiments amongst some parts of the respective populations in these countries. Recall the December referendum in Italy or the tension between the Madrid and the Catalan authorities in Spain.”

“Let's add to this the rise of the extreme right in Austria, the discontent with the migration policy in Hungary and the worsening of relations between Turkey and Europe, on the back of which President Erdogan has once again started to build up relations with Russia.”

“Only when we add to all this the local or parliamentary elections, which are scheduled for this year in a number of EU countries,” continues the NordFX analyst, “do we start realising what hard times are coming up for the EU as a whole and the euro in particular."

“If a few months ago major currency players retained some optimism about the future of the euro, now many of them have already revised their forecasts downwards.”

According to the British firm IHS Markit, the euro will reach parity with the dollar by the end of 2017. Royal Bank of Scotland analysts agree with this view. Due to the extension of the ECB's program to buy € 80 billion assets a month, they say, the EUR/USD pair will be able to stay in the range of 1.00-1.10. But the major investment bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its forecast below parity, from 1.00 to 0.90.

If we talk about the British currency, despite the Brexit (or indeed because of it), its future looks more optimistic than that of euro.

JPMorgan bankers believe that the rate of GBP may increase or decrease by 5-10%, depending on the UK government's actions with respect to accessing the single market. “The pound is facing periodic bouts of volatility and may change direction several times depending on political decisions,” says Paul Meggyesi of JP Morgan. As for the forecast, the bank's experts believe that the GBP / USD pair will be in the area of 1.26 by the end of 2017.

The currency strategists from ANZ Bank and ABN Amro believe that the pound will be weaker against the dollar, but will strengthen its position relative to the euro. “This is because”, says the ABN AMRO analyst Georgette Boele, “the political uncertainty in the euro area will put pressure on the euro across the board. Brexit is no longer the centre of attention in the financial markets, so the pound is likely to be relatively stable.”

The USD/JPY pair, according to the Royal Bank of Scotland, will be traded in the range of 110-120 throughout 2017, as the Bank of Japan will maintain monetary policy parameters stable and will continue to keep the yield on 10-year bonds (JGB) near zero. As for the experts from IHS Markit, they believe that thanks to the strengthening of the dollar, the pair will reach the 126 mark.

"The actions of Trump's administration and rate hikes by the Fed,” says John Gordon of NordFX, “will lead to the unwinding of inflation and the weakening of the national currency in a number of countries that are dependent on the US Dollar." At the same time, according to Bloomberg, the Russian rouble looks very promising for investors in 2017 when we consider emerging markets. According to the UBS Group AG estimates, the return on investment of the rouble on the carry trade strategy will be 26%, and this will be the best result among the markets of Europe, the Middle East and Africa.

The list of attractive countries less dependent on the risks associated with the actions of the USA also includes Mexico, Brazil, Chile, South Africa, India and Indonesia.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for EURUSD, GBPUSD, USDJPY, and USDCHF for 16-20 January 2017


First, a review of last week’s forecast:


- The behaviour of the EUR/USD pair did not deliver any surprises in the first half of the week. First, as predicted by graphical analysis, it attempted to climb to the height of 1.0650. Having almost reached the intended target (1.0627), the pair reversed and, following the forecast of most analysts, it began to descend to the 1.0350-1.0525 zone. The trend was then altered by the ECB meeting, the press conference by Donald Trump, and the speech of the Governor of the Bank of England M. Carney. Those events led the pair to return to the level of 1.0625 and then rise another 50 points to the height of 1.0685, once it had kicked off from the level of 1.0453;


- GBP/USD. Regarding the behaviour of this pair both experts and indicators were divided into three roughly equal groups: one third of them believed it would fall, one third believed it would grow, and the remainder believed the pair would move eastwards. The pair ended up fulfilling all these wishes: first it went down to the level of 1.2035, and then, reacting to the events listed above, it rose to the height of 1.2316 and eventually finished the week midway between these two values - in the area that has been acting as a support level during the first two weeks of January;


- In the case of the USD/JPY, analysts just shrugged their shoulders, anticipating the release of news from the US. As for graphical analysis, following the readings on H4, the pair fell to the lows of the previous week in the 115.05-115.20 area. After a short respite it rushed further down, which had been predicted by graphical analysis on D1. It reached a local bottom at 113.75;


- Recall that the opinions of experts and technical analysis on the behaviour of the USD/CHF pair were geometrically opposed. The former predicted its growth to the values of 1.0200-1.0300, and the pair went up exactly to the middle of this zone: 1.0247. The latter were, for the most part, inclined to sell it, and by the end of the week the pair fell to a level that was approximately 100 points lower than where it was at the start.


***

Forecast for the coming week:


Summarizing the views of a number of analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of a wide variety of technical and graphical analysis methods, we can say the following:


- Regarding the near future of EUR/USD, 60% of analysts, supported by indicators on H4, believe that the pair may rise to the 1.0700-1.0800 area. An alternative view is represented by 40% of experts, graphical analysis on W1 and 90% of oscillators. According to them, the pair will strive towards the support in the area of 1.0480-1.0510, and then even further to the December lows at 1.0350–1.0370. Meanwhile, graphical analysis on D1 does not exclude the possibility that before going down, the pair may once again try to climb to the height of 1.0650, which would happen at the start of the week.


- As for the behaviour of the GBP/USD pair, experts still cannot come to an agreement. About half of them are backing the bulls, believing that the pair will move to northwards. Graphical analysis agrees with this view of events as well, with H4 drawing the corridor of 1.2100-1.2315 for the pair. D1 sets targets that are even more ambitious, being in the area of 1.2400-1.2500. The remaining 50% of experts, as well as trend indicators and oscillators, disagree with such a forecast, believing that the pair should test the second support zone of 1.2000-1.2035;


- USD/JPY. When it comes to forecasting the next few days, the majority of experts and indicators on H4 and D1 believe that the pair has not yet reached the local minimum in the area of 113.00. In the medium term, the picture is quite different - about 70% of analysts, graphical analysis on D1 and indicators on W1 vote for the strengthening of the dollar and the rise of the pair to the resistance at 118.65. In the case of a breakthrough through this resistance, they believe the pair will rise even higher to the 121.00 level;


- We can observe a pattern similar to the one for USD/JPY with USD/CHF. 65% of experts, trend indicators and graphical analysis on H4, as well as oscillators on H4 and D1 strongly advise to sell the pair, believing that it will reach the 0.9950-1.0000 area. As for the medium term, the forecast remains the same: the vast majority of experts (75%), with the full support of technical and graphical analysis, are convinced that the pair will eventually rise again to the 1.0200-1.0300 area or even higher: to the December highs at 1.0340.


Roman Butko, NordFX


Notice: These materials should not be deemed a recommendation for investment or guidance for working on financial markets: they are for informative purposes only. Trading in financial markets is risky and can lead to a loss of money deposited.


#forex #forex_forecast #eurusd #signals_forex #binary_options

http://nordfx.com/