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[Julia NordFX]

Forex Forecast for 18-22 January 2016


For starters, a review of last week’s forecast:

- the forecast for EUR/USD panned out almost fully – according to the experts and graphical analysis on H1, the pair was supposed to be in a sideways trend, rebound from the upper boundary of the channel early in the week, then drop and return to the upper boundary;

- in their dispute with the analysts, the indicators turned out to be right when they clearly pointed to GBP/USD’s further fall;

- the experts based their forecast for USD/JPY on the fact that the pair had reached its local minimum and should enter a sideways trend, which did happen. However, on Monday and Friday, the pair made two attempts to break through support at 117.20. The first attempt failed, and it is too early to talk about the outcome of the second one;

- on Monday, after breaking through support at 0.9920, USD/CHF tried to go down to the next level of 0.9800 but failed. As predicted by graphical analysis, the pair rose to the upper boundary of the range – 1.0100. On reaching it, in accord with the experts’ opinion, the pair returned to its main level of the last few months 1.0000 where it wrapped up the week.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the views of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis the following can be said:

- regarding EUR/USD, 75% of the indicators vote for the pair’s rise while most exerts support bearish sentiment. In line with the latter, graphical analysis on D1 draws a further downward tunnel and indicates that in the first half of the week, the pair will go down to the lower boundary of 1.0650 and then bounce off to the upper boundary at 1.0900. At the same time, a look further down the tunnel shows that it finishes at last year’s low of 1.0450. The pair may reach this level already by the end of this month;

- the GBP/USD pair is replaying last week’s scenario as both experts and graphic analysis cannot wait to see a rebound at least up to 1.4370 (H1) while larger timeframes show bigger rebounds – 1.4520 on H4 and 1.4700 on D1. However, all indicators still insist on a continuing downtrend. Moreover, the W1 chart clearly shows that there’s room for the pair to fall – it’s at the low of May 2010 now but there is still the low of January 2009 at 1.3500, which may become the next target;

- according to 65% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4, next week USD/JPY is facing a slight correction with the transition to 117.40-118.00 and then a drop to support at 116.00. The indicators on H4 and D1 echo this;

- last week’s forecast was that USD/CHF would be fluctuating within a wide range from 0.9800 to 1.0100. The same scenario stands for this week, although there’re differences as to the sequence of these fluctuations. Thus, the indicators on H1 are neutral, on H4 they side with the bears whereas on D1 they root for the bulls. Graphical analysis on H1 points to a rise to 1.01125 first and then a return to 1.0020. After that, according to the indicators on H4, USD/CHF will go down to support at 0.9870, rebound and come back to early January’s highs. Graphical analysis on D1 predicts quite a fast rise to 1.02500, followed by a drop to a 1.0000 pivot point.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[jonenathan]

I have chosen –recommendation from a relative, a friend, a colleague, etc.

I have not contacted Customer support yet, but it is available 24 hours a day, so I can always easily get answers to my questions.

asMarket Execution: trading with no requotes

 

[Julia NordFX]

Double Success for NordFX in Forex Awards 2015​

We are pleased to announce that NordFX has won in two nominations in the Forex Awards voting for 2015 – Best Micro Forex Broker and Best Execution Broker.

Every year since 2010, Forex Awards selects the best forex and binary options brokers. Their expert community of active traders and website visitors votes for winners in a wide range of prestigious categories.

We at NordFX are very appreciative of such high marks for the company’s efforts in 2015 and will continue to do our best to offer traders the best and the most useful for successful trading on Forex.

 

[Julia NordFX]

IAIR Awards: NordFX won Broker of the Year / Forex Trading India​

On 11 March 2016, IAIR Awards held a ceremony in Hong Kong in honor of its winners for 2016. NordFX was recognized as Broker of the Year / Forex Trading India.

IAIR Awards’ motivation for selecting NordFX is – “For consistently meeting the strictest standards of financial stability and proper handling and security of client funds within a transparent, sincere and productive operating structure. Through the offer of the most popular financial instruments trading software, NordFX makes trading more comfortable, convenient and effective for all customers.”

We’re very thankful for this acknowledgement of our efforts and the quality of our services. NordFX always sets as its top priority to provide consistently stable and profitable trading conditions for our customers in India, Asia at large as well as other parts of the world.

 

[karunafx]

Hello, is nordfx have official representative in asia??
I've having bad experience with affiliate program.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Hello, is nordfx have official representative in asia??
I've having bad experience with affiliate program.

Hello karunafx,

Sorry to hear that. What country are you from?

For starters, it'd be best for you to send an email to: [email protected] and explain your issue. I'm sure your case will reviewed fairly.

 

[Julia NordFX]

New Conditions of the NordFX Affiliate Program​

We are pleased to announce that as of 11 April 2016, new conditions of the Affiliate Program come into effect and partner commissions will be almost doubled! This is the most significant upgrade in the history of our Affiliate Program.

The basic commissions increase as follows:

• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!

VIP partners get even more attractive terms:

• For “Micro” – commission 50% of the spread!
• For “Account 1:1000” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “Standard” – commission 40% of the spread!
• For “MT-ECN” – commission 40%!

Current NordFX partners will be transferred to the new conditions automatically.


The updated terms and the revised Partner Agreement can be viewed in detail on the website http://nordfxpartners.com/.


We trust that you will see value in such a major improvement of the partner conditions and considerably increase your revenues from the NordFX Affiliate Program.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 18-22 April 2016


Overview of Last Week’s Forecast

- EUR/USD was predicted to move down to the central line of the ascending channel that started to form last December and is now clearly visible on W1. The pair did drop sharply but didn’t reach the target of 1.1135. Instead, it stalled at support 1.1250;

- the one third of the experts were correct saying that GBP/USD would not go beyond the boundaries of March’s side channel of 1.4050-1.4450. With that, the pair narrowed the range of its fluctuations even more, keeping within 1.4090-1.4350;

- graphical analysis proved right about USD/JPY’s possible surge upward. In fact, the pair went up but that movement was more sluggish than expected, and the momentum fizzled out after 200 points at 109.70;

- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out. At last, the long-awaited bounce off the 0.9500 support happened, and the pair went on to break through resistance at 0.9650, turn it into support and wrap up the week at 0.9680.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on various methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- EUR/USD is very likely to continue its ascending movement for the fifth month in a row. Now the pair is just above the channel’s central line of 1.1135-1.1150. According to 50% of the experts, the pair should come down to it, then bounce off and go to the upper boundary of the channel. The indicators on H4 agree with this. The other half of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 reckon that EUR/USD may move upward almost immediately. The first resistance is at 1.1350, the second – at 1.1450, and the upper boundary of the channel is near 1.1600;

- the forecast for GBP/USD remains unchanged – moving towards last February’s lows. This is supported by 85% of the experts already (versus 65% last week), 80% of the indicators and graphical analysis on D1. The remaining 15% of the analysts believe that the pair will continue to move in the sideways channel, with support at 1.4050;

- all indicators on H4 and D1 point down for USD/JPY. Only 30% of the experts back them while the rest 70% predict that the pair’s rebound will end only after it reaches resistance at 111.00. Graphical analysis concurs and elaborates that this may take about a week. Now support is at 108.70. If it’s broken through, USD/JPY may first fall by 100 points and then reach the bottom at 106.70. However, the latter may happen in early May;

- about 70% of the experts, graphical analysis and the indicators on H4 and D1 predict that USD/CHF will continue its upward movement and attempt to get to 0.9800. Then, according to graphical analysis on D1, the pair may return to the 0.9500 support.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

New Conditions of the NordFX Affiliate Program​

The basic commissions increase as follows:

• 
  
  
  • For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!
  • For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!
  • For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!
  • For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!

Correction!

The basic commissions increase as follows:

• For “Micro” – from 25% to 40% of the spread!

• For “Account 1:1000” – from 25% to 30% of the spread!

• For “Standard” – from 20% to 30% of the spread!

• For “MT-ECN” – from 20% to 30%!

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 25-29 April 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- D1 and W1 charts show that EUR/USD continues to move within the ascending channel that started last December. As expected by 50% of the analysts and graphical analysis on H4 and D1, the pair aimed at the upper boundary of the channel right from the start of the week, quickly reached resistance at 1.1350 and then went down sharply to strong support at 1.1200, which is clearly visible in the monthly timeframe;

- despite the fact that most analysts predicted that GBP/USD would gravitate toward last February’s lows, the pair fulfilled the forecast of the remaining 15% of the analysts and went to the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450, within which it has been moving for the sixth weeks in a row;

- the forecast for USD/JPY was fulfilled 100% . It was suggested that as a result of the upward rebound that began 11 April, the pair should reach at least 111.00 over the past week. Only last Friday, though, the pair soared, broke through the resistance of 111.00 with a mighty heave and stopped at 111.76;

- the forecast for USD/CHF panned out – a further upward trend with the target of 0.9800, which happened Friday night. The pair was just 4 points short of it, making it to 0.9796.


Forecast for Coming Week

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be predicted:

-according to 85% of the experts and 90% of the indicators on H1, the EUR/USD pair should continue to move down to 1.1100-1.1150. On the other hand, graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 reckon that next week the pair will be moving in a 1.1200-1.1450 sideways channel with support at 1.1200. In the longer term, the pair should break through the lower boundary of the channel in early May and rather quickly reach a local bottom of 1.0900;

- even though GBP/USD disappointed most experts last week, the main forecast for the pair stands – moving down. This is backed by 75% of the experts who believe that the pair should bounce off the upper boundary of the side channel of 1.4050-1.4450 and go down to its bottom boundary in the near future. Graphical analysis on D1 points out that after breaking through it, GBP/USD will still reach February’s lows around 1.3850. However, it may happen no earlier than the first or second decade of May;

- it is obvious that all indicators point upward for USD/JPY. However, over 80% of the analysts and graphical analysis on D1 and H4 strongly disagree and believe that after bouncing off resistance at 112.00, the pair should go down to support at 110.60. These two levels will determine USD/JPY’s movement in the near future, after which the pair will once again attempt to reach the bottom of 107.70;

- about 70% of the experts and the indicators on H4 and D1 believe that USD/CHF will consolidate above 0.9800 for some time. The main resistance in this case will be 0.9900. Graphical analysis on D1 gives an alternative view – the level of 0.9800 will remain insurmountable resistance, bouncing off which the pair will go down to the 0.9500 support. Since the pair is around 0.9800 now, it’ll be clear shortly which scenario will play out.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

April 2016: Top 10 of MQL5 Trading Signals

Overview by NordFX Expert


It’s always fascinating to watch people make choices and then try to understand their reasons and motives. In this case, it’s not about presidential elections of course but about subscription to trading signals provided by the eponymous service integrated in MetaTrader 4.

As common knowledge goes, all money-related matters call for special attention, and autocopying of trades is no exception. Logically, you simply select a signal provider with some of the largest profits and replicate his trades. The question is whether it’s always the best solution. John Gordon, leading analyst at international broker company NordFX, shares his views on it.

The top 10 of the most popular signal providers for April 2016 are presented below.

I. Pound Aussie Real (growth 927%, 502 subscribers),

II. Green Line Signals (growth 42%, 478 subscribers),

III. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 61%, 336 subscribers),

IV. Asia Balance (growth 339%, 157 subscribers),

V. Q2FX (growth 1403%, 117 subscribers),

VI. FCracker (growth 20%, 96 subscribers),

VII. MWsclp (growth 41%, 84 subscribers),

VIII. CB06143 (growth 294%, 80 subscribers),

IX. Night Hunter (growth 329%, 72 subscribers),

X. LVIK Forex Commo (growth 20%, 54 subscribers).

John Gordon says, “In comparison with March, the two leaders Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals switched places. The former gained a position while the latter moved down, although, in my opinion, it may drop out of the top 10 by far in the next month. I doubt that someone would want to renew subscription to a signal that has lost 84% of the deposit amount in one go.

In the previous analysis, I urged to be very careful with subscription to Green Line Signals, the reasons being a short lifespan of the signal and nearly marginal drawdowns. The large number of subscribers can be explained only by their desire to get rich fast as in the 3 months of existence, the signal provider recorded impressive profits of almost 700%. However, the finale is quite typical for strategies based on the Martingale system or averaging of positions – the initial hundreds of percentage points have dwindled down to just 42%. It follows that all who subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April have lost all their investments. Only January subscribers have been able to preserve their capitals.

The signal Pound Aussie Real seems to be more stable. Still, the maximum drawdown of 44% raises some concerns as well. I’d like to point out that a large drawdown is not so rare for the signal. As recently as April there was a flop of 27.5%, with a mere 1.4% profit.

The signals MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 and Q2FX have kept their positions after March. The former has increased its profitability by a modest 5%, and the latter – by 6%. With this, it should be noted that the maximum drawdowns of both signals are quite sensible – 19% and 10.4% respectively, which reduces investment risks considerably.

F Cracker is in the 6th place. I think this is rather a peculiar signal. It’s just over a month old, the drawdown is 21%, growth is 20% but there are 96 subscribers already! I believe it has to do with an effective promotional campaign by the signal provider and possibly with the participation in affiliate programs.

MWsclp is a free long-lived signal that has been producing 10-15% growth per month for the past 5 months. Nonetheless, it hadn’t demonstrated anything remarkable during the year before and its profits have been at zero on average.

There’s a very interesting signal I’d like to draw your attention to – CB06143. Its operating principle is, “Less is more.” Profits are from 1 to 10% a month, a respectable lifespan of about 2 years and a phenomenal drawdown of 4.5%.

Lastly, the signal LVIK Forex Commo ended up in the top 10 most likely because it’s 2 years old and its drawdown is slightly above 10%. However, its profits are quite modest – only 20% over 111 weeks. The upside is free subscription.”

“In conclusion,” says John Gordon, “what could (and should) be emphasized is the common thread of this overview: it’s important to do proper money management and not to chase big profits; it’s important to regulate risks in the MT4 settings (first off, adjusting maximum deposit load) and select signal providers with a reputable history (60, 80, 100 and more weeks). Luckily, they are well-represented on the MetaTrader list.”

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 2-6 May 2016


First, a review of last week’s predictions:

- graphical analysis and the indicators on D1 were 100% right in their forecast for EUR/USD. According to them, the pair was supposed to bounce off support at 1.1200 and move on to resistance at 1.1450. In fact, the pair started from 1.1217 on Monday and completed the week at 1.1451;

- defying the forecasts of most analysts who all of the past month insisted on GBP/USD’s move to last February’s lows, the pair continued its upswing, broke through resistance at 1.4450 and quickly reached last February’s high of 1.4670;

- the USD/JPY pair fully confirmed the predictions of graphical analysis and the experts who believed that the pair would bounce off resistance at 112.00, go down to support at 110.60 and even further to 107.70. Due to the decisions of the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on interest rates, USD/JPY not only met but actually exceeded the expectations and was just short of 100.90-105.30, i.e. the sideways channel of 2014;

- in the forecast for USD/CHF graphical analysis on D1 indicated that 0.9800 would become insurmountable resistance, the pair would bounce off it and go down to support at 0.9500. It did happen – USD/CHF consistently moved down all week long and reached the weekly low of 0.9567 on Friday.


Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- the experts’ opinions about EUR/USD are split almost equally – 45% are for a rise to 1.1550-1.1650, another 45% are for a fall to the levels of 1.1200-1.1300, and the remaining 10% are for a further sideways trend. Graphical analysis on W1 and MN shows clearly that EUR/USD is at the top boundary of the horizontal channel within which the pair has been moving since January 2015. Thus, 1.1450 may become strong resistance, bouncing off which the pair will move to the central line of the channel at 1.1000. It should be noted that the coming week is full of important economic events, including the release of US employment data, which may have a significant impact on virtually all USD pairs;

- the analysts differ about GBP/USD – 40% are for a fall, 40% are for a rise to 1.5000 whereas 20% and graphical analysis on H4 are for a sideways trend within 1.4500-1.4660. In the longer term, 75% of the experts believe the pair will go down while graphical analysis elaborates that the main support will be at 1.4200;

- there is no consensus among the experts regarding USD/JPY either. As for the indicators, all of them obviously point down after the pair’s sharp fall. With this, according to graphical analysis on D1, one can expect the pair to bounce to 109.00-110.00 and then try to reach the low of 105.00 again;

- about 60% of the experts and graphical analysis on D1 believe that USD/CHF should make another attempt at consolidating above 0.9800. The main resistance will be at 0.9900 in this case. However, graphical analysis on H4 indicates that this can happen only after the pair rebounds from support around 0.9520-0.9500.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 09 - 13 May 2016


First, a review of last week’s predictions:

■ As for the forecast for EUR/USD, this pair succeeded to meet expectations of all experts. All of their forecasts turned out to be correct - those, which predicted its rise (from Monday to Tuesday, the pair rose to the level of 1.1616), the ones which predicted its drop (the pair afterwards went down to support at 1.1385), and –the ones predicted its sideways trend - due to fluctuations the pair returned almost to the same level it had started the week from. Such a mixed behaviour of the pair, as noted above, was largely predetermined by the last week’s release of a series of economic data points of a different trend from Europe and the USA;

■ as expected, these releases should influence the behaviour of virtually all USD pairs, and that did not allow analysts to reach a consensus particularly in regard to the future of GBP/USD. As a result, the pair largely made the same movement as EUR/USD, and, after rising earlier in the week, it showed a steady fall in the latter half of the week, returning to the benchmark for the whole year of 2016 - to support / resistance zone of around 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500;

■ there was no consensus among experts about the future of USD/JPY either. As a result, the pair held onto the side channel, reflecting the behaviour of EUR/USD and wrapping up the week virtually at the same level of 107.00 whereat it had consolidated last week;

■ as often happens, USD/CHF also tried to mirror the behaviour of EUR/USD, but nonetheless it fully met expectations of both analysts and graphical analysis predicting its attempt to get closer to the level of 0.9800. The pair, however, failed to reach this high, but due to its impressive surge upward it got closer to the target and reached the mark of 0.9728.




***



Forecast for Upcoming Week

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

■ similar to the last week, the experts' opinions about future of EUR/USD are split almost equally - one third of analysts are for the rise of the pair to the zone of 1.1730 ÷ 1.1800, one third are for its fall towards the support of 1.1200, and another third - for a sideways trend with pivot point of 1.1400. The opinions about indicators are also split - 60% on H4 vote for the pair's fall, and 75% on D1 are for its rise. If we focus on the graphical analysis, there is a prevalence of bearish trends here, according to which the pair must first go down to the first support zone of 1.1340, and then, after breaking through it, move 100 points lower. The local bottom of the current month is at 1.1000, which should be followed by a return to the pivot point of February - May at the level of 1.1280;

■ but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the majority of analysts (70%), as well as indicators and graphical analysis on H4 and D1 unanimously vote for the continuation of its declining. Target is at 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a bounce upwards to the last week figures within 1.4430 ÷ 1.4500;

■ USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the sideways movement of the pair within 105.50 ÷ 108.00. And, the pair is very likely to rise to the upper boundary of the range, bouncing off which it should make another attempt to break through the support of 105.50 and go down first to the zone of 104.00, and then to the lows of spring and summer of 2014 at the level of 102.00. However, such a movement can take from several weeks to a month;

■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was - both 80% of experts and 85% of indicators and graphical analysis on D1 continue to insist on the pair striving to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. As already mentioned, the main resistance in this case will be at the level of 0.9900. The main support is 200 points lower - 0.9700.



Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Oil Price Hike: To Be or Not to Be?


In 1870, John D. Rockefeller founded the Standard Oil Company that became the largest monopoly in the petroleum industry. After 135 years, in the fall of 2014, Rockefeller’s heirs called off their investments in fossil fuels. They explained the decision by the fact that clean renewable energy was phasing out oil-based wealth. It appears they are right as the price of Brent crude oil fell to $35 a barrel in January 2016 from $95 in September 2014.

However, considering the fluctuations of the price of black gold when Standard Oil was established, it stands to reason that after a major dip there may come an equally major rise. Thus, in 1861, the price of oil was about $15 (measured in 2015 dollars), soared to $120 just 5 years later, then dropped to $40 and rose again by 1870 – to $80 a barrel. Nowadays, starting from 1971, we’ve been observing similar volatility.


What will actually happen to oil prices? This question is asked by many as the price direction has an impact not only on currency exchange rates, stock market indices, prices of shares but also on the fortunes of whole nations and countries.

John Gordon, leading analyst at international broker company NordFX, says, “In fact, there were some positive price dynamics early this year but it’s still difficult to make any definitive predictions. Experts’ opinions differ drastically. For instance, not so long ago the Bloomberg agency spread the word that oil market profiteers began to buy short contracts that would pay off only if the price of oil plunged to $15 a barrel. On the other hand, according to experts from Austria’s Raiffeisen Banking Group, over two years the price may reach $100.”

These are extreme views while most forecasts aren’t that opposite and range within the amounts of $40-60. As such, Moody's Investors Service believes that the price of one barrel in 2016 will be $43. About the same figure of $45 is sounded by Russia’s largest oil producing company Rosneft. The World Bank puts it even higher, although it downgraded the outlook from $57 to $52.

Swiss UBS Group AG gives quite an optimistic forecast. Its specialists think that by the third quarter of 2016, the oil market will balance out and the price will settle within $60-67. Michael Hulme, a fund manager at Carmignac Gestion, a French investment group, shared a similar opinion with The Times, “On a 12 to 18-month view, oil prices should normalize back to the marginal cost of supply of at least $60." Mohammed A. El-Erian, chief economic adviser at Allianz, raises the bar even higher. He doesn’t reckon that the price of oil will return to $100 a barrel and suggests $70-80 for 2016.

John Gordon from NordFX sums up, “If all positive forecasts are put together, the average price of oil comes to about $60 a barrel. There’re actually reasons to be hopeful. Sure, a lot hinges on the output by the USA and OPEC countries. One can’t overlook such factor as production costs which, for example, average at $57-58 for US shale oil fields. At this time, the USA and the OPEC still can sell oil at the price below production costs and make up for it by profits from futures contracts sold earlier. However, this can’t go on forever as the price of futures dropped as well.”

Besides oil companies, exporting countries also need to regain their positions and replenish coffers. For one, Venezuela is in a catastrophic situation, and the government officially declared a humanitarian crisis in the country. Under these circumstances, the OPEC can’t help but cut production quotas. Its experts believe that the United States too will reduce output by over 400,000 barrels a day this year.

“When making investment decisions, among other things it’s important to take into account that energy commodity prices markedly affect not only exchange cross rates but the biggest stock markets as well,” says the NordFX analyst. “Alongside Forex services, our company offers binary options trading with such assets as shares of leading oil and industrial companies as well as all major stock indices. Charts clearly show a correlation between their quotes and oil prices – the US stock market declines when oil prices go down and, conversely, is on the rise when the price of black gold climbs up.”

This being said, many experts warn that a rapid hike in oil prices shouldn’t be counted on. In his interview for the Edmonton Journal, FirstEnergy Capital’s analyst Martin King told that before a rise, prices might drop to $30 again. Active growth can be expected only in the third and fourth quarters 2016.

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 16 - 20 May 2016

First, a few words about the forecast for the previous week:

■ if we talk about the forecast for EUR/USD, as it often happens, graphical analysis turned out to be the most accurate, having predicted the return of the pair to the Pivot Point of February - May at the level of 1.1280. It was that value - 1.1282 - that the pair reached on Friday and, after several unsuccessful attempts to break through this support, it completed the five-day period in the 1.1310 area;

■ with regard to GBP/USD, having returned to the key support / resistance zone for the entire 2016, near 1.4400 ÷ 1.4500, the pair fluctuated around Pivot Point 1.4440 for nearly the whole week. However, at the end of the week, it remembered that most analysts and all the tools of technical analysis had unanimously voted for continuation of its fall. As a result, denoting a bearish trend, the pair moved to the south and recorded the weekly low at 1.4340;

■ forecast for USD/JPY turned out to be only partly true. It had been assumed that at the beginning of the week the pair should go up to the 108.00 resistance, and it obediently did so. But then, instead of showing a rebound down, the pair broke this level and moved sideways in the 108.25 ÷ 109.40 channel;

■ predicting the behaviour of USD/CHF, the majority of experts together with technical and graphical analysis continued to insist on a quest of the pair to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. The pair indeed made several desperate attempts to achieve this significant level, however, the maximum result, which it managed to achieve for the whole week, was the height of 0.9774, located just 26 points below the coveted height.


Forecast for the coming week:

Summarizing the views of several dozen analysts from leading banks and brokerage firms, as well as the forecasts made on the basis of different methods of technical and graphical analysis, we can say the following:

■ throughout May experts have not managed to form any consensus on the future of EUR/USD. The same thing happened this time: 45% of them with the support of 100% of indicators on H4 vote for pair falling to the level of 1.1200, 20% of analysts - for the sideways trend, and 35% - for the pair's growth to the height of 1.1380. Graphical analysis on H4 and D1 agrees with the latter, its readings say that the pair must demonstrate a smooth rebound from the 1.1280 support. If we talk about a long-term forecast, the opinion of the majority of experts (70%) remains the same - reduction of pair to the zone 1.1000 ÷ 1.1100;

■ but with regard to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the outlook remains virtually the same as last week - a continuation of the pair's fall to the area 1.4250 ÷ 1.4300, which should be followed by a rebound to the 1.4500 resistance. With this agree both 65% of analysts, and graphical analysis on D1;

■ USD/JPY. Here, according to experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair's movement in the sideways channel 107.00 ÷ 109.50 in the next few days. At this, the pair, with high probability, will demonstrate a bearish mood, which will result in an attempt to break through the 105.50 support and go down to the lows of early May - in the area of 105.50 ÷ 106.00;

■ as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything here remains the same - 60% of the experts, 100% of indicators on H4 and D1 and 65% of indicators continue to insist that the pair should reach the level of 0.9800. At this graphical analysis on D1 warns that after a few days in this area, a strong rebound to the south may follow, as a result of which, as it happened in March and April, the pair will drop to the 2016 lower boundary of the sideways channel - to the zone 0.9500 ÷ 0.9585. The nearest support is at the level of 0.9650.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 23 - 27 May 2016


First, a review of last week’s forecast:

- as to the forecast for EUR/USD, last week there was no consensus in regards to its future. Surprisingly all predictions panned out. 35% of experts backed by graphical analysis reckoned that the pair would gradually bounce off the support of 1.1280 and move towards the resistance of 1.1380, and earlier this week the pair did went upwards and reached the mark of 1.1348. The other 45% of analysts voted for the pair’s fall to the level of 1.1200, which virtually happened in the latter half of the week – the pair wrapped up the week fluctuating within the range of 1.1200 - 1.1230;

- as to GBP/USD, 65% of experts predicted the pair’s drop to the area of 1.4250 - 1.4300, following which a rebound to the support of 1.4500 should occur. However the pair decided to jump the gun and after declining only to the level of 1.4330 it soared and reached the high of 1.4500, then it made a second breakthrough heaving upwards by further 165 points, following which it returned to 1.4500 - the target level of experts. By the way, it’s interesting to look at M1 charts of different brokers for this pair: in the last minute of the week session we may see a candle moving down to the mark of 1.4487 on some brokers’ charts, and some brokers’ charts vice versa show a candle moving up to 1.4513. As to NordFX quotes, they ended the week at the level of 1.4490;

- in the last minute of the session similar various readings were seen in regards to USD/JPY. As to the forecast for this pair, it turned out to be only partly correct. Earlier in the week the pair was expected to move in a sideway channel of 107.00 - 109.50, and it did so. But then, instead of rebounding downwards, the pair, supported by news from the USA, broke the resistance of 109.50 and transited into sideways movement within the range of 109.70 - 110.50;

- predicting the way USD/CHF would act, the majority of experts along with technical analysis continued to insist on the pair’s attempt to consolidate above the level of 0.9800. And that forecast was 100% fulfilled – in the middle of the week the pair reached this benchmark level and went further upwards – to the high of 0.9922. As to the end of the week, it became a focus of attention due to plunging of quotes of several brokers by 15 – 20 points during last minutes of the session.

***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

- predicting the future of EUR/USD, 60% of experts backed by 75% of indicators insist on continuation of a descending trend for this pair. They reckon that the pair should fall at least to the level of 1.1100, and it even may go down further 100 points. As for the other experts and graphical analysis, according to their opinion the pair had already reached a local bottom and thus its upwards rebound to the area of 1.1300 - 1.1330 should happen;

- as to the behaviour of GBP/USD, the technical and graphical analysis on D1 concurs and elaborates that the pair would continue its movement in an ascending channel, which had started late February this year. According to this forecast, backed by 65% of experts, the pair would insistently try to reach the high of 1.1500, however this movement may take up to several weeks. As to the shorter-term forecast, the experts do not rule out the chance that the level of 1.4500 may turn from support into resistance for a while (pay attention to divergence of quotes when the last session had been closed). If this scenario plays out, then the key support will be 1.1440, and the next support - 1.4325;

- USD/JPY - here, according to the majority of experts, indicators and graphical analysis, we should expect the pair moving in the sideway channel alongside pivot point of 109.00 within next days. The main support will be at 107.70, resistance – at 111.00;

- as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF - everything is just as it was – as it was mentioned in previous reviews, the pair may stick to the side channel for a while, with the support of 0.9800 and the resistance level within 0.9900 - 0.9920, whereafter it should go south to the support of 0.9700. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 shows that afterwards it may again return to the benchmark level of 0.9800 bouncing off which it may plunge down to the mark of 0.9500, this movement may take up to 3 weeks.

Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

May 2016: TOP 10 Trading Signals Through the Eyes of NordFX Analyst


It's believed that there are no large drawdowns, but there are small deposits. Let's consider the following example: a drawdown of 90 dollars with a deposit of $100 is a disaster, if the deposit makes $1000 the drawdown is reasonable 9%, and if it makes $10000 then the latter may be ignored.

Traders who trade manually or with expert advisers, using averaging of positions or martingale, will confirm that you should not count on any profit if an account lacks decent funds. The deposit may become at risk of any mighty move of the market. And if we open the ‘Signals’ tab on MT4 and look which of them feature subscription, it becomes clear that a half of providers of these signals trade using the same averaging or martingale system.

Certainly, these high-risk strategies are able to bring both quick profit, and a similar quick zeroing of the account. So how do we reduce the risks? The leading analyst of the international broker company NordFX, John Gordon, discusses this very thing in his monthly reviews.

According to the results of May 2016, TOP 10 most popular signals with subscribers are the following:


I. MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 (growth 64%, 447 subscribers),

II. Pound Aussie Real (growth 1010%, 170 subscribers),

III. Small to BIG Money (growth 269%, 158 subscribers),

IV. Fusion Project (growth 397%, 155 subscribers),

V. Green Line Signals (growth 77%, 125 subscribers),

VI. MAXI (growth 586%, 103 subscribers),

VII. Lemar Investment Group (growth 809%, 95 subscribers),

VIII. Q2FX (growth 1482%, 90 subscribers),

IX. Asia Balance (growth 432%, 82 subscribers),

X. CB06143 (growth 309%, 79 subscribers).


"MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 is considered to be a ‘fixture’, J. Gordon states, "ranking among TOP 10 throughout 2016. It doesn't look so attractive against many other signals. Wherein others show growth of hundreds and thousands of per cents, it showed growth of only 17% within last five months (from 47% in January to 64% in May), and at the same time it appeared to top the popularity rating. Why? I think there are three reasons for it:

- the first one is a life time of a signal, 112 weeks in the market without loss of a deposit is already a certain guarantee;

- the second reason is a very small drawdown. It didn't exceed 19% during these two years;

- the third one - subscription to this signal is absolutely free.

Therewith it should be noted that it is clearly not scalping, the average time of position holding makes 3 days. Generally, the author of MenjadiTrader PAMM 144842 has been working rather steadily. As a comparison, there is none of seven signals with a yield of around 2000% and more, included into January rating, in a current TOP 10. So, there is a lot to be thought over.”

“As to other signals”, NordFX analyst continues, “Pound Aussie Real and Green Line Signals are firmly fixed among top performers ranking among TOP 10 for the fourth month in a row. And one more signal is Q2FX, it has been steadily retaining its position among the TOP 10 for the third month.”

“As for Green Line Signals, in my previous comments I insistently recommended to think twice before subscribing to it. And I proved right about it. Due to aggressive trading, the signal lost around 85% of the deposit. This is a rather typical final for the strategies based on martingale or averaging of positions, and therefore the previous 700% turned into just a few tens of percent. It means that all the users subscribed to Green Line Signals in February, March and April lost their money, and only January subscribers, apparently, only the remaining 125 subscribers out of almost 500, who had been subscribed to that signal a month ago, could preserve their capital.

Pound Aussie Real signal seems to be more stable. However it should be used cautiously as a high drawdown is quite common for it, and in May it reached its high of 57%. For those subscribers whose deposits include bonus such a drawdown can be critical.

Currently Q2FX seems to be a more preferable trading signal against previous ones with pretty impressive profit and quite admissible drawdown around 10%.

Small to BIG Money signal took the third place in May rating. To my mind, it is too early for any significant conclusions. This signal exists only three weeks, therewith 388 transactions out of 494 (i.e. around 80%) were made during one day - on May 3, bringing a huge chunk of profit. So far Small to BIG Money shows a moderate drawdown – it is less than 8%, however due to slippage the results of subscribers can turn out to be not so impressive.

Fusion Project signal shows a pretty good performance – there is no hedging, no martingale, average yield makes around 50% per month with the maximum drawdown of less than 10%. The only drawback is a sufficiently short life time of the signal, but it can be fixed if a trader operates properly", John Gordon points out.

“MAXI signal is somewhat similar to Fusion Project - manual trading without a grid and averaging, growth makes around 60% per month with a drawdown of 22%.

By the way, as to the maximum drawdown, it shouldn't be perceived as a certain constant", John Gordon sums up. "For example, in the last review I praised CB06143 signal because its drawdown didn't exceed 4.5% during two years of life. We must admit that this result is stellar. But just a few days ago its deposit drew down by 21.22% and one of the most important indicators was slightly spoiled. However, CB06143 still has investment attractiveness, because it shows sustainable, though not hefty income. And, as you know ‘Practice doesn't make perfect, practice makes permanent’. Especially in the Forex market."

 

[Julia NordFX]

Dolce Vita of Futures and Binary Options


It’s widely known that ‘dolce vita’ translated from Italian means ‘sweet life’. It’s also well known that sugar is one of the sweetest products in our life. But not everyone might know that sugar is also an efficient instrument for trading futures and binary options. However that’s the case.


Sugar futures have long been trading in many world trading floors, including the world’s largest operator of derivatives market Intercontinental Exchange (ICE). Apart from the ICE, they are traded on Brazilian stock exchange Bolsade Mercadorias & Futuros (BM&F), Tokyo trading floor Tokyo Grain Exchange (TGE), Chinese futures exchange Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, Indian commodity and derivatives exchange NCDEX and others, and monthly turnover of transactions thereon makes dozens of billions of US dollars.


Being one of the most important agricultural financial instruments, sugar futures were initially developed to hedge the risks of major producers, suppliers and buyers of this commodity. But high volatility of sugar prices and high liquidity of transactions showed that sugar futures can be used not only as a standard hedge instrument, but also as an efficient way for market speculations.


“Futures contracts for raw sugar delivery are called World Sugar No.11”, says the leading analyst of broker company NordFX John Gordon, “and we offer our clients to use this particular instrument along with other commodity futures, stocks, indices and currencies for trading binary options.”


As to the factors influencing quotes of sugar futures, climatic conditions are of key importance.


Many analysts reckon that sugar prices reached its local bottom in 2015. “They dropped too low”, says a senior economist of ABN Amro bank Frank Rijkers, “and currently a recovery of futures is seen. Particularly sugar prices have an uptrend potential.” As reported by Bloomberg agency, this is a record rise over the last 23 years since March 1993.


Changing of price trend from a negative to a positive one was preceded by the forecast of the International Sugar Organization (ISO) assessing deficit of sugar in the current year at the level of 5.02 million tons. El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon (ENSO) is a periodical variation in sea surface temperatures over the equatorial part of the Pacific Ocean, having a significant impact on the planet's climate, was named as a reason for the decline in manufacture. In 2015 plantations of such major producers as Brazil, India and Thailand, which account for almost 50% of the total volume of global deliveries of raw sugar, were severely affected by El Nino.


Except unfavourable weather conditions, according to the specialists of ABN Amro, this deficit also occurred due to low sugar prices, reaching its low last August, which resulted in reduction of planting volumes and costs of renewal and reconstruction of field cropping. As noted by the CEO of Mackay Sugar Quinton Hildebrand, almost all producers operated at a loss given such sugar prices.


As reported by the executive director of the International sugar organization (ISO) Jose Orive, El Nino phenomenon, which emergence in 2015 is marked as the most extensive in history, will probably gain momentum. Hence the ISO expects increase of sugar deficit of up to 6.2 million tons in 2016-2017.

The ISO reckons that apart from weather factors the growth of world’s population and the fact that producers of soft drinks, ketchup and chocolate increasingly choose sugar instead of other sweeteners, add to occurrence of deficit.

It should be noted that numerical forecasts of sugar deficit differ significantly. For instance, the analyst of Group Sopex John Stansfield predicts the number of 4.5 million tons. However the majority of experts agree on the view that prices of sugar futures will go up. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) believes that this upward movement may continue until 2018.


"If we take a look at the cost of futures contracts in the USA”, John Gordon from NordFX says, "it becomes clear that such a forecast lags a little bit, and things tend to happen much faster. So, for example, for this year the EIU predicted the cost of futures contracts Sugar No. 11 of around 14.7 USD/lb, but already now the cost of July – October contracts has been fluctuating around 17 USD/lb, price peak of 17.48 USD/lb was marked in March 2017, following which it begins to decline gradually. Yet it does not mean that during this period there will be no adjustments, primarily connected with weather conditions, which are beyond our control. Therefore, when selling short or buying long, retail traders should closely monitor what happens at this specific moment on the largest world trading floors."

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 30 May – 3 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast, which may be considered as 100% fulfilled:

– as to the forecast for EUR/USD, the majority of experts and indicators insisted that it should go down at least to the level of 1.1100, which the pair did, wrapping up the week just 10 points higher – at the mark of 1.1110;

– as to the medium-term forecast for GBP/USD, technical and graphical analysis concurred and elaborated that the pair would continue moving in an ascending channel, which had started as early as this February. According to this forecast, supported by 65% of experts, the high of 1.1500 is the ultimate target of this pair. Therewith earlier this week, there were doubts as to the way the level of 1.4500 would play out whether as a local support or resistance. Eventually these doubts panned out, during Monday the pair had been fluctuating, at one moment moving above this line, at another – dropping below it, but then on Tuesday it steadily heaved, gaining 300 points and reaching the high of 1.4740 by Thursday;

– making forecast for USD/JPY, both experts and technical analysis expected the pair to move in a sideways channel alongside the pivot point of 109.00. This forecast may be considered as fulfilled – the pair finished the week at the same level it had started from. However its fluctuations appeared to be so marginal, that it failed to fall below the abovementioned level of 109.00, which eventually acted as the support for it;

– the forecast for USD/CHF also suggested that the pair would move in a sideways channel with the support within 0.9900 - 0.9920, which proved to be correct. Only on Friday evening, following the speech of the Chair of the Federal Reserve Janet Yellen and finding almost no resistance, the pair could stall just above the said zone and ended the week at the level of 0.9945.


***

Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to the future of EUR/USD, 80% of experts and 95% of indicators insist that the pair hasn’t reached the local low in the area of 1.1000 yet. Therewith the graphical analysis on D1 points out that before going south, the price may tick up: the first resistance will be at 1.1170, the next one - at 1.1240. When the pair hits its bottom at the level of 1.1000, a mighty upwards bounce may follow, as a result of which it will rise above the mark of 1.1300;

– as to the medium-term acting of GBP/USD, 70% of analysts and indicators on D1 concur and elaborate that the uptrend will continue. The nearest resistance level will be at 1.4800. With this, according to the readings of the graphical analysis on H4, early in the week the pair may go down to the support of 1.4500 and only then it may start moving upwards;

– as to the future of USD/JPY, bullish sentiment predominates among the indicators. Experts’ opinions are split almost equally: 35% vote for the pair’s rise, 35% - for its fall. The remaining 30% predict continuation of its sideways trend, which, according to the readings of the graphical analysis, is the most probable scenario. The first support will be at 109.40, the next support will be at 108.50, the main resistance will be in the area of 111.00;

– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a clear difference of experts’ opinions and the graphical analysis. The former ones (85%), fully backed by indicators, reckon that the pair will make attempts to reach the benchmark level of 1.0000. As to the graphical analysis, it predicts that the pair will rebound downwards and return to the zone of 0.9700, followed by a short-term upward movement to the resistance of 0.9800 and a deeper decline to the support of 0.9500. The graphical analysis allocates between 3 and 4 weeks for implementation of this scenario.


Roman Butko, NordFX

 

[Julia NordFX]

Generalized Forex Forecast for 6 – 10 June 2016

First, a review of last week’s forecast:

– the forecast for EUR/USD reckoned that the pair might first rise to the level of 1.1170, and then – even up to 1.1240, following which it would reverse and start going south. This scenario also considered the fact that according to many authoritative sources the key indicator of economic situation in the USA – Nonfarm payrolls (Nonfarm employment change) – would show its gradual growth. Until Friday the pair had been moving strictly in accordance with this forecast – on Tuesday it reached the first resistance of 1.1173, rebounded, on Wednesday it broke through it, got to the area of the second resistance at 1.1220, following which it reversed and fiercely went south. However, Friday release of data from the USA changed the situation dramatically – actual NFP reading turned out to be 4 times (!) less than it was expected, and thus US dollar plunged by nearly 250 points;

– as to GBP/USD, over the last several weeks the level of 1.4500 was viewed as a medium-term pivot point for this pair. That’s why according to the readings of the graphical analysis the support zone was supposed to coincide with this line. But jitters and heightened volatility ahead of Brexit allowed the pair to drop below it by 115 points. However, afterwards it returned to the above-mentioned pivot point and wrapped up the week at the level of 1.4514;

– a sideways trend with the main resistance at 111.00 and support at 108.50 was deemed to be the most probable scenario for USD/JPY. Similar to EUR/USD, the pair first had been moving virtually within the predetermined range, however, the unexpected NFP data dropped the pair to the month-old values just in several hours;

– the forecast, provided by the graphical analysis for USD/CHF, suggested that it would return to the zone of 0.9700 and it turned out to be absolutely correct, the pair finished the week at the level of 0.9754 – which is 200 points lower than the level it had started from.


Forecast for the Upcoming Week:

Summing up the opinions of several dozen analysts from world leading banks and broker companies as well as forecasts based on different methods of technical and graphical analysis, the following can be suggested:

– as to the future of EUR/USD, 100% of indicators point upwards. However, the vast majority of experts (around 80%) continue to insist that the pair will go down at least to the level of 1.1100. As to the forecast for summer, in their opinion during this period the pair may move further down – to the mark of 1.1000. The graphical analysis gives more cautious forecasts. According to its readings on Н4 and D1, the pair may first go down towards the support of 1.1283 (the next support will be at 1.1200), and then it will surge upwards to the high of 1.1450. Following which it will after all go south getting closer to the local bottom at the level of 1.1130;

– as to the acting of GBP/USD, analysts’ opinions are split almost equally – 45% vote for its fall, 45% - for its rise, and 10% - for the sideways trend. 75% of indicators on D1 along with the graphical analysis also vote for the sideways movement of the pair, which seems to be the most probable for the upcoming week. As before the pivot point is at the level of 1.4500, the support is at the areas of 1.4455, 1.4400, 1.4330, the resistance is at 1.4535, 1.4600 and 1.4740;

– analysts’ views on the future of USD/JPY differ, some predict its rise (50%) and others expect a sideways trend (the other 50%), none of them predicts its fall this week. Of course the pair may reach its May low of 105.50, however, it will be a short-term movement, and its main trend is south-oriented – towards the pivot point of 110.00;

– as for the last pair of our review - USD/CHF, there is a difference of experts’ opinions and the technical analysis once again. 90% of indicators point down, but 60% of analysts predict surge of the pair to the level of 0.9850. The graphical analysis also doesn’t rule out a similar short-term uptick, however, the analysis on Н4 as well as on D1 continues to insist that a deep decline to the support of 0.9500 may follow. As to the medium-term forecast, it also remains the same, in spite of its fluctuations the pair should reach the benchmark level of 1.0000.


Roman Butko, NordFX