Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls are going to reach the channel
5/26/2016

The price has found a support at 1.1124, which brought a “Double Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach a resistance at 1.1217, which is near the downtrend line. If a pullback from this level happens, a downward movement towards the nearest support area at 1.1124 becomes possible.

We’ve got a “Double Bottom” pattern, which has been confirmed. Despite of a resistance by the 55 Moving Average, the market is likely going to achieve the next resistance on the 89 Moving Average. However, bears will probably try to reach a support at 1.1085 afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9057

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Pennant" urge bulls to move on
5/25/2016

There’s a “Triangle”, which has been broken by the last bullish rally. The price faced a resistance at 1.4695 – 1.4758 afterwards, so we’ve got a flat in progress. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at the nearest trend line. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.4670 – 1.4638.

The price has found a resistance at 1.4739, which led to the current flat. Also, there’s a possible “Pennant”, so the pair is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4768 – 1.4785. Considering a possible pullback from this area, bears will probably try to achieve a support at 1.4728 – 1.4695 subsequently.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9058

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Tweezers" on the last "Window" brought bulls into the market
5/26/2016

The upper side of the nearest “Window” has acted as a support, so the price is rising. Moreover, we’ve got a “Tweezers” at the last low, so the market is likely going to moving up towards the 21 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s just a local correction, which has been started right after a “Harami” at the last low. Therefore, the pair is probably going to achieve the 89 Moving Average in the short term.

We’ve got a “Harami” and a “Hammer” at the local low, which both have been confirmed enough. So, the market is likely going to get a resistance on the 89 Moving Average line, which can bring back bears into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9061

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Three White Soldiers" marching in lockstep towards the last high
5/25/2016

There’s a “Harami” at the local low and on the 89 &34 Moving Averages. This pattern has been confirmed, so the market is likely going to reach the nearest resistance. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got a “Harami” and a “Tower” on the 21 Moving Average, but their confirmation has been canceled by the last bullish “Harami”. Therefore, the pair is likely going to get a resistance on the 34 Moving Average, which can bring any kind of bearish pattern afterwards.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there isn’t any clear bullish pattern so far. We’ve got just huge shadows at the local low and two “Harami” patterns. Under this circumstances, the market is likely going to try break the high of 2014 once again.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9062

 

[riki143]

AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9360
5/26/2016

-AUD/CAD reached sell target 0.9360
-Next sell target - 0.9300

AUD/CAD continues to fall after the earlier breakout of the support level 0.9360, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the support level 0.9360 is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave (iii) of the intermediate C-wave from the start of March. The active impulse wave (iii) started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down from the resistance zone surrounding the resistance level 0.9500.

AUD/CAD is likely to fall further to the next sell target at the support level 0.9300 (which previously reversed the price in November of 2015, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9063

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: the nearest resistance is waiting for bulls
5/27/2016

Bulls have slowed down after the price reached a resistance at 1.1217. However, the market is likely going to test this resistance once again in the short term. If a pullback from there happens, there’ll be the very special moment for bears to set up a decline toward the last low.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the pair has been moving up and down between a resistance by the 89 Moving Average and a support at 1.1167. Therefore, the market is likely going to get a resistance at 1.1217 during the day, which could be the bulls' last gasp.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9067

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears are trying to turn the tide of battle after the "Double Top"
5/27/2016

The pair has faced a resistance at 1.4738, so we’ve got a “Double Top” pattern, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to decline towards the nearest support at 1.4576. Nevertheless, bulls are still all around, so if we see a pullback from the support, a new upward movement becomes possible in the direction of the last high.

We’ve got a local “Flag” on the one-hour chart, so bears are likely going to get a support somewhere between the 89 Moving Average and the level at 1.4585. If sellers be stopped here, there’ll be an opportunity to see bulls’ attempts to return into the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9068

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears are attacking bulls by the "Shooting Stars"
5/27/2016

There’s a “Tweezers” on the “Window’s” upper side, which has been confirmed. After a while, an “Engulfing” arrived on the Moving Average, but a “Harami” was formed in the short run, so an upward movement becomes possible in the direction of the 34 Moving Average and the upper “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a “Harami”, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the market is likely going to moving up during the day.

We’ve got a correction inside the main bearish trend. There’re a couple of “Shooting Stars” at the local highs, but their confirmations are weak. So, the pair is likely going to reach the nearest support, but bulls will probably try to get the 144 Moving Average afterwards.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9069

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: bulls holding the fort
5/27/2016

There’s a “Harami” at the local low, but its confirmation is weak, because the price movement hasn’t reached the middle of the last huge black candle. So, the current consolidation is likely going to move on. As we can see on the Daily chart, here’s a strong support by the 13 Moving Average. The bearish “Harami” and “Tower” haven’t been confirmed, so the price is free to continue the current upward movement until any bearish pattern arrives.

We’ve got a flat in progress in a range of the last black candle. The price reached the nearest support once again, so it’s possible to a rise in the short term. The main target is still the maximum, which was formed in 2014.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9070

 

[riki143]

Forex trading plan for May 27
5/27/2016

US dollar index declined for the second day, despite the fact that American durable goods orders showed larger gains than expected. Among the important things to pay attention to on Friday we should cite the release of the US preliminary GDP at 12:30 GMT (positive forecast) and the speech of the Federal Reserve’s Chairwoman Janet Yellen at 17:15 GMT. If Yellen follows the number of the Fed members who pointed out that the central bank could increase rates this summer, US dollar should get a new push to the upside.

Oil prices rose above $50 a barrel as US crude inventories decreased. Note, however, that concerns about US interest rates and China’s economic slowdown may limit further gains.

EUR/USD recovered to 1.1200, though there’s resistance at 1.1218/25. Next resistance levels lie at 1.1240 and 1.1300. Support is at 1.1135, 1.1100 and 1.1050. The short-term trend for the euro is still bearish.

GBP/USD paused above 1.4700. The UK’s latest GDP report showed that British economy added only 2.0% year-on-year in Q1 failing to meet the annual forecast of 2.1%. Resistance is at 1.4770 (May high, 200-day MA). Support is at 1.4635 and 1.4550.

USD/JPY is consolidating within a triangle (109.00-110.50), which means that an increase in volatility will happen soon. It seems that there are some heavy sellers at the top of this range, so its downside border seems more vulnerable.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9071

 

[riki143]

US Dollar: forecast for May 30 - June 5
5/27/2016

Traders’ eyes all over the world are glued to the US Dollar these days: are we now entering a new phase of the greenback’s strength? Do we need to prepare ourselves for the new shocks on global markets?

Last week we’ve seen a bunch of upbeat US data: US durable goods orders surged in April on increased transportation demand, while the pending home sales reached their highest level in almost a year. We see that the US economic fundamentals are quite sustainable, so the major question is now about the rate expectations.

Big names of the US officials are standing in line to warn that a rate hike is coming in the nearest future. The Fed’s member Powell joined the party last week. The market is now quickly repricing the number of rate hikes in 2016 – the chance is rising from 1 to 2 or 3 hikes.

US economic calendar for the new week is very active. On Monday, markets will be closed due to a bank holiday. On Tuesday, we’ll watch the personal spending figures and consumer confidence index. On Thursday, apart from the OPCE meeting, we’ll be watching an ADP NFP and unemployment claims, while on Friday markets will focus on the official labor market figures. In April the US economy added only 160K new jobs, but the wage inflation showed some signs of rising. May NFP consensus is seen at 163K. A better reading will clearly trigger a rally of the US currency.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9072

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: forecast for May 30 - June 5
5/27/2016

Broadly speaking, June is expected to become a volatile month for the British currency. Markets remain occupied with the Brexit referendum due on June 23. If the United Kingdom votes to abandon the European Union (EU), sterling could lose its role of the world reserve currency and depreciate significantly in all the major currency pairs. According to Britain’s Finance Minister Osbourne, a Brexit could pull the UK economy into a long-lasting recession, potentially forcing the extermination of more than 800,000 jobs in two years. All these expectations are expected to hurt the British pound in the coming weeks.

From the technical viewpoint, GBP/USD has been forming a rising wedge pattern since February. We see potential for a double top with resistance at 1.4760 being formed before the long-term downside is resumed. Key support is now seen at 1.4500. Break below would confirm the end of the bullish move. This forecast coincides with the rising US rate hike expectations.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9074

 

[riki143]

GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
5/27/2016

-GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 158.00

GBP/JPY continues to decline – following the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 162.50 (which has been reversing the price from the end of March), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate downward impulse (5) from the start of February.

The downward reversal from the aforementioned resistance zone completed the previous intermediate ABC correction (2). GBP/JPY is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 158.00 (which reversed the price earlier this month, as can be seen below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9075

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
5/27/2016

-EUR/USD falling inside impulse waves 3 and (3)
-Next sell target - 1.1130

EUR/USD recently reversed down from the resistance level 1.1220 (former support level and the sell target set in our previous forecast for this currency pair, acting as resistance now after it was broken by the active minor impulse wave 3). The active impulse wave 3 belongs to the intermediate downward impulse wave (3), which started earlier this month – when the pair reversed down sharply the daily Falling Star from the long-term resistance level 1.1600, as can be seen below.

EUR/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.1130 (which reversed the price earlier this week).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9076

 

[riki143]

DAX rising inside C-wave
5/27/2016

DAX rising inside C-wave
Next buy target - 10480.00

DAX has been rising steadily in the last few trading sessions inside the C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of May. The active C-wave earlier broke through the resistance level 10100.00 (upper boundary of the narrow price range inside which the pair has been trading from the start of this month, as can be seen from the daily DAX chart below). The breakout of this price range intensified the bullish pressure on this index.

DAX is likely to rise further in the active waves C and (2) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 10480.00 (forecast price for the termination of wave C and the top of the previous primary ABC correction ②).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9077

 

[riki143]

NYMEX trades almost flat
5/30/2016

On Monday, in Asia, crude oil prices gave up their early revenues and found themselves in flat territory with holidays in America and Great Britain supposed to keep trade light, while markets are currently looking ahead to an OPEC gathering close to the end of this week.

In New York, July delivery oil futures surged 0.04%, hitting $49.35 per barrel. As for Brent crude futures, they traded $49.85, showing a 0.2% sag.

Market participants will be looking ahead to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries gathering in Vienna, Thursday. The vast majority of market analysts expect the number one crude organization to keep its output quota intact amid surging prices.

By the way, the OPEC’s recent gathering in April didn’t give any agreement as for output freeze at current levels due to Iran’s refusal to meet the initiative.

Apart from that, crude traders are going to pay attention to American stockpile data to be released on Wednesday and Thursday. The data is expected to bring new supply-and-demand signals.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6668

 

[riki143]

Gold drops in Asia as traders digest Fed views
5/30/2016

On Monday, gold sank with markets in America and Great Britain closed for holidays and traders focused on a probable Fed interest rate lift as early as next month.

Japanese retail sales for April went down 0.8%. It’s definitely less than the 1.2% dip expected year-on-year. American markets are going to be closed for the Memorial Day holiday.

In New York, August delivery gold futures lost 0.97%, trading at $1,204.85 per troy ounce. July delivery silver futures edged down 0.47%, reaching $2.101 a pound.

Copper traders are going to look out for a couple of reports on Chinese manufacturing sector due on Tuesday, along with everlasting worries as for the number two economy’s health. This Asian nation appears to be the world’s major copper consumer. Indeed, it accounts for almost 45% of world consumption.

In the week ahead, market participants are going to focus on Friday’s American nonfarm payrolls report for May to indicate if the world's leading economy is strong enough to digest further rate lifts this year.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6669

 

[riki143]

Greenback surges on Fed rate hike bets
5/30/2016

On Monday, the evergreen buck managed to hit its one-month peak against the Japanese counterpart, while standing still against other peers right after comments by Janet Yellen, the Fed Chair, enhanced the prospects of an upcoming American interest rate lift.

Besides the latest hawkish statement from the Fed, political developments in Japan were also seen backing up the greenback against Japan’s currency.

Shinzo Abe, Japanese Prime Minister told he would about to delay a sales tax lift planned for next April by about two and half years.

Japan’s currently working out a supplementary budget in order to boost its struggling economy, a move widely expected to be followed by the BOJ’s further monetary easing.

The greenback surged above 111.00 yen. That’s the first soar since late April. The dollar hit 111.03 yen at one point.

In general, fiscal policy is quite positive for the Japanese yen. However, if the stimulus goes along with further monetary easing, it’s considered to be a yen-weakening factor because it generates the concept of helicopter money.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6670

 

[riki143]

South Korea April department store sales hit a three-month peak
5/30/2016

In April, South Korean department store sales edged up at the fastest tempo for three months, according to the final government data issued on Monday. It’s because warmer weather as well as more holidays in that month opened customers’ wallets.

In April, combined sales at department stores run by Lotte Shopping, Hyundai Department Store and Shinsegae Co went up 4.3% from the previous year, as the Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy states.

It definitely accelerated from a 0.3% soar in March and appeared to be the best performance since January’s 9% leap.

An extra public holiday in mid-April due to the parliamentary election greatly assisted to drive sales, already backed up by warmer-than-usual weather.

Sales of well known foreign brands edged up the most among department store goods, leaping 8.6% on-year in April because last month the average daily high temperature hit 20.3 degrees Celsius, which is 18.8 degrees higher than last April.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6671

 

[riki143]

Nikkei surges over 1% after Fed comments
5/30/2016

On Monday, the vast majority of Asian stocks climbed up slightly with traders purchasing shares in Japanese exporters as well as other underperforming sectors.

The Nikkei Stock Average soared 0.9%, driven by weakness in the Japanese yen amid the greenback’s broad strength, thus powering export-oriented companies. On Monday, the yen dared to touch ¥111 against the greenback, which soared on comments by the Fed’s head.

Among Tokyo-listed exporters, we should point out to Honda Motor with its 2% surge, Toyota Motor with +1.3% and Canon, demonstrating a 0.6% rise.

A weaker currency helps the overall competitiveness of local companies paying costs at home as well as repatriating earnings from abroad.

Meanwhile, Hong Kong’s benchmark Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, normally tracking the movement of Chinese companies listed in the city, soared 0.7% after dipping more than 11% so far in 2016.

The broader Hang Seng Index gained 0.8% too, while shares South Korea, Australia and Shanghai mostly stood still.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6672