Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Gold prices stand still near 3-week trough
5/20/2016

On Friday, gold stood still, hovering near a three-week trough because the perspectives of June’s rate increase in America and a strengthening greenback kept weighing on the number one precious metal.

In New York, June delivery gold futures stuck to $1,255.35.

The June contract concluded Thursday’s trading session 1.54% lower, trading at $1,254.80 per ounce.

Futures were about to gain support at $1,247.50, Thursday’s minimum and resistance at $1,276.40, the highest peak from May 18.

Gold prices were affected after the Fed’s minutes unveiled on Wednesday. As follows from the minutes, June’s rate surge would be absolutely appropriate if the US economy demonstrated positive signs in the second quarter.

Apart from that, on Thursday, William Dudley, New York Federal Reserve President told that American economy could be strong enough to justify a rate hike in June or July.

Gold appears to be extremely sensitive to moves in American interest rates, as a surge would increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6623

 

[riki143]

US Dollar: forecast for May 23-29

The FOMC minutes released on Wednesday changed the market attitude to the greenback. The document revealed that the Fed’s members were discussing the June rate hike on their April meeting.

Combined with the hawkish officials’ comments and improved US economic data, all that increased the market expectations for a June hike from 4% to 30%. We still believe that the Fed’s hike is unlikely in June, but comments the press-conference could easily deliver hawkish comments. These expectations are likely to push the greenback higher in the coming weeks.

On the new week watch the April durable goods orders on Thursday. Orders for items meant to last at least three years rose by 1.3% in March after a 3.1% drop in February. On Friday we’ll focus on the preliminary Q1 GDP. The advance reading showed a 0.5% growth in the first three months of 2016. Economists believe that the reading could be revised to the upside.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9022

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Pennant" brings bears through the new low
5/23/2016

There’s a “Thorn” pattern, which led to the current local correction. Therefore, we’ve got a possible “Pennant” pattern, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1145. If a pullback from this level happens, there’ll be a chance to see another upward correction.

As we can see in the one-hour chart, the last price movement could turn out like a “Pennant”. So, the lower side of this pattern is likely going to be broken soon. Thereby, we should look closely at a support at 1.1145, because bears will probably train off on this level.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9024

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: bears using the "Triple Top" are trying to return into the game
5/23/2016

The price has found a support on the 34 Moving Average, which led to form a “V-Bottom” pattern. Therefore, the market is likely going to achieve a resistance at 1.4576. If bulls run out of steam on this levels, there’ll be an opportunity to see a decline towards a support at 1.4425.

There was a flat between a resistance at 1.4669 and a support at 1.4545, which finally has been ended by dramatically fast bearish movement. However, a “V-Bottom” was formed afterwards, so we’ve got a local upward correction in progress. So, the market is likely going to test a resistance at 1.4545 - 1.4559. If a pullback from these levels happens, bears will probably return to the market.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9025

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bulls and bears continue their battle near the "Window"
5/23/2016

There’s a “Harami” at the last low, which has been confirmed. The nearest “Window” and the 21 Moving Average are acting as a support. Therefore, the market is likely going to reach the lower “Window” in the short term. As we can see on the Daily chart, we’ve got an “Engulfing”, but its confirmation isn’t enough. So, the middle of the last huge black candle will probably act as a support, which could be a starting place of the next bearish offensive.

We’ve got a local correction in progress. Previously, an “Engulfing” and a “Tweezers” have been formed. Considering a “Belt Hold” pattern, the market is likely going to reach the 89 Moving Average during the day.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9026

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: "Tower" signalizes a beginning of bearish correction
5/23/2016

There’s an “Engulfing” at the last high, which has been confirmed. The last candles are bearish, so the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average as the nearest support. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will probably try to achieve the last high. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “Harami” and a “Tower”, but their confirmation isn’t enough. Therefore, today’s candle is likely going to be black.

We’ve got a “Harami” at the last high, but the current candle hasn’t closed under the nearest resistance. Previously, a “Three Methods” was formed, so the pair achieved the 89 Moving Average. If a pullback from this line happens, bulls will have a reason to move on.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9027

 

[riki143]

EURUSD: euro is losing momentum again
5/23/2016

Daily. European currency keeps floating. Last week, bears managed to get into the day-time Ichimoku cloud, regardless rather powerful support from the above line, approximately located at 1.1260. At the end of the week, the currency pair shifted the 2-month minimums to 1.1170, which hardly couldn’t have influenced the technical part: Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen lines formed a death cross. This is why the question of uptrend movement renovation is now thrown into sharp relief. We do not exclude the possibility of short-term consolidation inside the cloud.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. Downtrend movement continues to progress. As it was reported previously, in this particular case, the Ichimoku indicator has already changed the direction two weeks ago. Last week trades, remarked by falling trend, made Tenkan and Kijun lines figure a yet another death cross and space the cloud out, stretching it downwards. That is to say, the bears are apparently dominating on the market yet. That is why, after carrying out an analysis of Kijun line (1.1260/70) we expect a change of local lower limits.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9028

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bulls remain hesitant
5/23/2016

Daily. AUD/USD fixed below the Ichimoku cloud last week.Bulls have gently tested the resistance, created by the lower boundary of the cloud and are no longer trying to reverse the market to the upside. The pair lsipped to 0.7170 by the end of the week. However, strong support is clustered at these levels.

Note that the market is strongly oversold. This could make the pair retrace into the Tenkan-Kijun channel.

Chart. Daily AUDUSD

H4. The downtrend is also clearly seen on the 4-hour chart. After a test of the lower band of the Cloud, Tenkan and Kijun lines formed another bearish cross, while the Cloud extened the range to the downside..

The market is now trading inside the Tenkan-Kijun range. A breakout higher or lower will set further direction to trade.

Chart. H4 AUDUSD

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9030

 

[riki143]

AUD/USD: bears' determination does not run low
5/24/2016

During the yesterday's trading session the currency pair AUD/USD has approached its recent minimum of 0.7180 again. So far it is obvious that the 72nd figure constrains the long-term sellers from starting a new round of sales, but panic in the market is obviously felt and, in case it starts to develop, we will be able to see the pair one figure lower. On a day timeframe there is strong level in the area of the 71st figure. Therefore, sales can be continued up to this mark.

Four-hour timeframes are favorably disposed to bears, supporting them by the dead cross created by Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines, and also with the help of the descending Ichimoku cloud, that has a powerful range. For bulls with the best will in the world (if it appears) it will be difficult to develop the downtrend just like that.

Technical levels: support – 0.7180, 0.7100; resistance – 0.7220.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 0.7200; SL — 0.7220; TP1 — 0.7130; TP2 — 0.7100.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9035

 

[riki143]

USD/JPY: on the cloud lining
5/24/2016

Yesterday's trading on USD/JPY had a downward dynamic. The pair had lost approximately1 figure during the day having decreased to the upper limit of four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Tenkan-Sen and Kijun-Sen responded promptly to the decrease by annuling the active golden cross.

However, such a decrease is still rather correctional due to the bullish trend of Ichimoku Cloud. Hence, market growth recovery remains quite possible. The only thing bulls need to do for it is to take hold above Senkou Span A.

Technical Levels: Support – 109.00; resistance – 109.80, 110.10.

Trading recommendations:

1. Buy — 109.00/20; SL — 108.80; TP1 — 109.80; TP2 — 110.10.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9036

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bearish "Pennant" can bring a new low
5/24/2016

There’s a local flat in progress, so the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1145 afterwards. Moreover, we’ve got a “Pennant” pattern, which indicates that bears are still in the game. However, if a pullback from a support at 1.1145 happens, there’ll be a chance to see an upward correction.

We’ve got a flat between a resistance at 1.1230 and a support at 1.1178. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise during the day. If bulls be stopped by the nearest resistance at 1.1245, bears will probably move on and deliver a new low shortly.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9037

 

[riki143]

GOLD: short-term goal has not been reached
5/24/2016

On the last week pair continued to tumble to oversold territory. Intersection STD1 with STH4 happened, as well as is fixing price below 0/8 (1250.00). This is enough to talk about further reducing to the level -1/8 (1234.38). Reducing STD1 also indicates a decrease. The unlikely breakdown of the level 0/8 will lead to an increase to the area of merger STD1 with level 1/8 (1265.63). Nevertheless, the achievement of the nearest bearish target at the -1/8 is better.

Trade Recommendation:

Sell – 1244.00; sl – 1251.00; tp – 1235.00.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9044

 

[riki143]

Gold prices slump in Asia
5/25/2016

On Wednesday, gold prices in Asia edged down, as market participants mostly expect a rate raise by the Fed already at the June monetary policy gathering.

In New York, June delivery gold futures sagged 0.31%, trading at $1,225.35 per troy ounce. As for July delivery silver futures, they lost 0.27%, hitting $16.210. Meanwhile, July delivery copper futures managed to gain about 0.05%, trading at $2.068 a pound.

On Tuesday overnight, gold went down hitting 1-month minimums, following the US robust new home data, which raised the greenback. Another factor, bringing the number one precious metal down, was a closely-watched survey on dropping sentiment toward a probable Brexit.

Gold has already slumped almost 4% for the last three weeks since reaching 15-month peaks around $1,300 an ounce in the beginning of May. Notwithstanding its recent struggles, gold is up by 15% or even more since the beginning of the year. Currently, the most popular precious metal in the world is on pace for one of its most impressive halves of a year in a decade.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6644

 

[riki143]

NYMEX and Brent gain in Asia
5/25/2016

On Wednesday, oil gained in Asia as American industry stock data demonstrated an abrupt sag at the end of last week.

In New York, June delivery WTI crude futures acquired 1.36%, trading at $49.28 per barrel. Simultaneously, Brent crude ended up +1.19%, being worth $49.19.

The American Petroleum Institute informed that last week crude oil stocks dipped 5.137 million barrels, compared to a sag of 3.3 million barrels as refineries normally push up gasoline output as the summer driving season is coming next week in America along with the Memorial Day weekend. As for distillates stocks, they edged down 2.922 million barrels. Gasoline stocks surged 3.606 million barrels. Market participants are currently paying attention to crude as well as refined products stock data from the US Department of Energy to be released a bit later.

Overnight, crude prices dared to rise considerably on Tuesday remaining near 6-month highs, as Iraq's OPEC governor expressed his sincere concerns regarding the nation's slowing output, thus helping to ease supply levels from near-record peaks.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6645

 

[riki143]

Aussie rises in Asia amid reviving construction activity
5/25/2016

On Wednesday, the Australian dollar managed to gain after construction data along with the Japanese yen edged up as market participants are turning their attention to the Fed’s upcoming rate lift.

In Australia, construction work carried out for the first quarter dipped 2.6%, more than the 1.5% fall observed quarter-on-quarter.

The currency pair AUD/USD found itself at 0.7210, demonstrating a 0.39% surge, while USD/JPY was worth 109.96 with a 0.04% sag. As for EUR/USD, this currency pair dared to acquire up to 0.13%, trading at 1.1155 when negotiations on Greece’s debt program finished.

The RBA in its May Statement on Monetary Policy told that non-residential building approvals are still at quite low levels.

A bit earlier, New Zealand officially reported that the trade balance for April demonstrated a deficit of approximately NZ$3.66 billion year-on-year as well as a surplus of NZ$292 million month-on-month.

The currency pair NZD/USD was worth 0.6761, showing a 0.36% soar after the data.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6646

 

[riki143]

Asian stocks are driven by oil and upbeat US data
5/25/2016

On Wednesday, stocks across Asia edged up, as crude oil prices dared to advance to their highest peaks in more than seven months, while market participants share upbeat sentiment as for the prospect of the Fed’s another interest-rate lift right after the official release of positive economic data.

Shares in Hong Kong rose 2.5%, inspired by state-owned energy companies, including PetroChina Co., which grew more thant 4.3%. Energy shares on the benchmark Hang Seng Index acquired 3.4%.

Meanwhile, in other regions of Asia, Japanese Nikkei Stock Average soared by 1.7%, Australian S&P ASX 200 gained 1.7%, while Korean Kospi grew 1.3%. The Shanghai Composite Index went up 0.1%.

Crude prices, that went up overnight, and kept tacking on revenues during Asia trade, shocked the region’s markets. Financial experts were watching for a probable break above $50 per barrel, a level, which hasn’t been challenged for months yet amid ongoing concerns about global oversupply.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6647

 

[riki143]

Foxconn won't sell Sharp's solar power business
5/25/2016

On Wednesday, Taiwan’s high tech giant Foxconn officially announced that it is not going to sell its Sharp Corporation’s solar power business, amid growing worries from the company’s business partners as for a probable closure of this particular Foxconn’s struggling division.

The newly- appointed Foxconn’s CEO at Sharp and simultaneously its vice chairman Tai Jeng-wu along with Terry Gou, the company’s founder told that they’re eager to inform their business partners that they’re solely committed to this high tech business, Sharp Corporation. The given statement was addressed to the division’s solar power business partners just to calm all of them down.

Foxconn, also dubbed formally Hon Hai Precision Industry Co appears to be the world’s number one multinational contract electronics producer, officially headquartered in New Taipei, Taiwan. Foxconn is on the verge of sealing a $3.5 billion deal close to the end of June to provide a two-thirds stake in Sharp.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6648

 

[riki143]

German consumer climate keeps rising
5/25/2016

In May, the overall mood of German consumers demonstrated a mixed performance. The consumer climate indicator is actually predicting up to 9.8 points for June, compared with May’s outcome of 9.7 points. While economic expectations as well as the readiness to purchase have both surged, while income expectations have suffered definite losses.

Customers are still assured that the German economy is going to keep growing moderately for the next few months. It has already resulted in a minor soar in economic expectations this month. As for the already extremely high readiness to purchase, it has also edged up to a greater level. Though the income expectations indicator appears to be the only index to face a loss, it’s still higher the 50-point mark.

In May, economic expectations have kept going up. However, this month’s surge of 2 points appears to be quite moderate, especially compared to the noticeable leap seen in April. The indicator is now at 8.3 points, thus suggesting it has ascended even further above the negative range.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6649

 

[riki143]

Draghi criticism is dangerous and excessive
5/25/2016

The constantly growing personal criticism of Mario Draghi, the European Central Bank governor appears to be excessive and therefore dangerous. That’s what Francois Villeroy de Galhau, the ECB governing council member told in an interview in the Spanish newspaper El Pais, published on Wednesday.

Of course, it’s quite normal that there’s debate on monetary policy. However, the personal criticism of Mario Draghi is too much, it’s really dangerous. That was Galhau’s reply to the question regarding German complaints against the European Central Bank.

Francois Villeroy de Galhau states that from his point of view it’s quite excessive to talk about politicization of the ECB, which is under the control of this particular country or it has been the major reason for the growth of a particular party in Germany.

Apart from that, he warned of the high risks closely connected with Britain escaping from the European Union, pointing out to probable financial turbulence, especially for British financial institutions, to say nothing of tough consequences for the monetary union.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6650

 

[riki143]

European shares are powered by Greek bailout deal
5/25/2016

On Wednesday, European stocks leapt because Greece’s creditor came to a compromise as for unlocking more bailout funds for the debt-burdened economy. Oil, getting closer to the $50-a-barrel level also gave decent support to European stocks.

The Stoxx Europe 600 managed to gain 0.6%, trading at 356.24. In fact, all the sectors edged up, led by the gas and oil group. The pan-European index found itself on track for a second consecutive revenue, after Tuesday’s trading session ended up 2.2% higher.

Greece is expected to get up to 10.3 billion euros in new loans if a deal made during Wednesday’s early hours is signed off by the 19 member countries in the European Union.

The new payout arose after Eurozone finance ministers as well as the International Monetary Fund agreed that Greece has already achieved the required progress on financial reforms. The funding will definitely save Athens from defaulting on huge debt redemptions to the IMF as well as the European Central Bank already in July.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6651