Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Aussie and kiwi descend against greenback
5/30/2016

The Australian and New Zealand dollars slumped against their major US counterpart, because comments by Janet Yellen, Fed Chair powered the greenback, while dropping oil also weighed on the commodity currencies.

The currency pair AUD/USD went down 0.29%, trading at 0.7160, near last week’s almost three-month minimum of 0.7142.

The evergreen buck strengthened when Janet Yellen, Fed Chair told on Friday that it would be a good move for the US major bank to lift rates cautiously and gradually in the nearer future if the US economy as well as the labor market gain as expected.

The evergreen buck was also driven after the US Commerce Department posted on Friday that GDP went up at an annualized rate of 0.8% for the three months to March, which is higher than the expected estimate of 0.5%.

In Australia, Monday’s data showed that company operating profits sagged by 4.7% in the first quarter, compared to expectations for a 0.1% surge and after a 2.8% dip in the three months to December.

The currency pair NZD/USD tumbled 0.33%, trading at 0.6682.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6673

 

[riki143]

German negotiated wages lift by 2.1% in the first quarter
5/30/2016

In Germany, negotiated wages managed to go up by 2.1% in the first quarter compared with the same last years’ period, according to the data published on Monday. It undoubtedly drove expectations that private consumption is going to rise in the EU’s number one economy this year.

As reported by the Statistics Office, negotiated wages come with collectively agreed basic pay, to say nothing of special payments such as one-off payments, back payments as well as annual bonuses from wage deals.

In fact, negotiated wages edged up more steeply compared to consumer prices, which soared by 0.3% for the same period.

Approximately 19 million employees in this European country are represented by unions, traditionally negotiating pay agreements every one or two weeks.

Financial experts point out that wage hikes secured by German unions for about 6 million employees so far this year appear to be relatively modest compared with last year's agreements.

https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6674

 

[riki143]

French growth is stronger than expected
5/30/2016

In the first quarter, the French economy demonstrated a strong-than-expected 0.6% surge, according to the official data unveiled on Monday. The given growth was reportedly powered by a leap in consumer spending as well as a pick-up in business investment.

The upbeat growth figures, that augured perfectly for the government’s 1.5% target for the whole year, appeared to be the latest positive developments for the Eurozone’s second-largest economy, where unemployment has started going down, while customers are more upbeat notwithstanding protests and strikes.

A poll of up to 15 experts surveyed by Reuters forecast French GDP to remain intact at 0.5% that INSEE had firstly reported in its preliminary evaluation. Considering the revised figure, it appeared to be just the second time for three years that growth leapt above 0.5% in France.

In the quarter to end-March growth was powered by a 1 percent soar in consumer spending, with INSEE revising abruptly upward its March value in a separate release as well as a 1.6% surge in investment.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6675

 

[riki143]

Greenback is backed up by US rate view
5/31/2016

On Tuesday, the evergreen buck fluctuated close to its highest peak for two months against other key currencies, thus following surging hopes on an imminent American interest rate lift, while the Australian dollar suddenly strengthened due to local strong data.

On Monday, the greenback index against six key currencies soared to 95.968, having leapt 4.4% from its 15-1/2-month minimum achieved earlier this month at 91.919. Last it traded at 95.662.

The latest spark for greenback bulls came from Janet Yellen, Fed Chair, who told on Friday that a rate lift in the nearer months would be for good, if the US economy along with labor market kept going up.

On Monday, the common currency tumbled to as low as $1.1097, the lowest minimum since mid-March, though it managed to rebound from that level. Last it traded at $1.1150.

The greenback also hit a one-month peak of 111.455 yen on Monday right before rebounding to 111.09 yen.

Better-than-expected industrial output data as well as month-end buying by Japanese exporters backed up the Japanese yen.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6676

 

[riki143]

NYMEX crude rises in Asia, Brent drops
5/31/2016

On Tuesday, NYMEX crude oil futures soared in Asia, while Brent crude futures edged down right after thin overnight deals as market participants considered the impact of crude supply disruptions against the outcome of a long-awaited OPEC gathering a bit later this week. The meeting is supposed to do little to alter global oversupply.

In New York, July delivery crude futures soared 0.39%, trading at $49.51 per barrel. At the same time, Brent oil futures sagged 0.34%, being worth $50.19 a barrel.

On Monday overnight, crude prices appeared to be somewhat lower in North American trade because traders paid attention to improving global supply outlook.

Hopes for a surge in Canadian oil sands output this week mounted as crude producer Suncor Energy unveiled its ambitious plans to increase production at its fields in Alberta right after it had to shut them down a bit earlier in May because of huge wildfires.

Supply outages due to Canadian wildfires as well as unrest in Nigeria have pushed crude prices above the $50-level last week. Nevertheless, as some of the supply disruptions have faded away, traders are currently putting their focus back on the growth of global crude supply.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6677

 

[riki143]

Japan factory output suddenly surges
5/31/2016

In April, Japanese factory output suddenly soared. It’s because a batch of earthquakes in the southern part of Japan didn’t have a great effect on production and it definitely powers hopes for the national economy currently squeezed by weak consumption and exports.

Household spending dropped less than expected in that month, while job availability reached a 24-year peak, a definite relief for Shinzo Abe, Japan’s prime minister, expected to delay a planned sales tax lift next year to avert a hammer blow to rather a fragile economic recovery.

The overall effect on production from the earthquakes might linger with high inventory levels. However, the chance Japan can avert a huge tumble in its second-quarter GDP has surged, as some analysts state.

In April, factory output went up 0.3% from the previous month, thus confounding market forecasts for a 1.5% dip drop and following a 3.8% soar in March, according to the data offered by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry on Tuesday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6678

 

[riki143]

China stocks demonstrate the biggest one-day gain
5/31/2016

On Tuesday, Chinese stocks showed the greatest one-day revenue for two months, driven by growing optimism that they might be soon included in an influential global benchmark.

In China, the Shanghai Composite Index increased 2.6%, the most impressive intraday move since March. As for the smaller Shenzhen Composite Index, it ascended 2.8%, while the tech-focused ChiNext index acquired 3.2%.

In other Asian regions, Japanese Nikkei Stock Average gained 0.7%, Korean Kospi acquired 0.5% and the Hang Seng index soared 1.2%. Simultaneously, Australian S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.2%.

Experts as well as investors were mostly expecting the global index provider, MSCI to add mainland-traded Chinese shares or A-shares soon, right in its Emerging Markets Index. The funds managing up to $1.7 trillion normally track this benchmark worldwide. Market participants are currently anticipating that MSCI’s inclusion of A-stocks right into the index is going to channel billions in passive asset-management money into the number two economy, thus raising share prices.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6679

 

[riki143]

Kiwi and Aussie climb up on upbeat data
5/31/2016

On Tuesday, the New Zealand and Australian dollars edged up against their major American counterpart, driven by the issue of positive data from both New Zealand and Australia, though hopes for an American rate lift this summer kept backing up the evergreen buck.

The currency pair AUD/USD gained 0.86%, being worth 0.7244, the highest value since May 23.

On Tuesday, the Australian Bureau of Statistics informed that building approvals soared by 3.0% in April, thus ruining hopes for a 3.0% dive. In March, building approvals went up by 2.9%.

A separate post unveiled that Australian current account deficit managed to narrow to A$20.8 billion in the first quarter right from A$22.6 billion in the previous year’s fourth quarter.

Financial experts had expected the current account deficit to narrow to approximately A$19.5 billion in the last quarter.

As for the currency pair NZD/USD, it ascended 0.45%, trading at 0.6725.

Apart from that Tuesday’s data disclosed that in May, the ANZ business confidence index for New Zealand soared to 11.3 from a reading of 6.2 last month.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6680

 

[riki143]

Gold struggles close to 3-1/2 month minimum
5/31/2016

On Tuesday, during European trade gold futures struggled close to their lowest minimum for three months because traders are getting back from the long Memorial Day weekend awaited data, which could potentially back some Fed officials’ upbeat views on the American economy.

The Commerce Department is going to release its core personal consumption expenditure index or PCE for April, along with personal income as well as spending for the same period soon. Furthermore, traders are awaiting data from the Conference Board.

Solid readings could further increase expectations for a move as soon as the Fed’s next policy gathering is scheduled on June 14-15.

In New York, June delivery gold futures sank $1.95, trading at $1,214.75.

Yesterday, the number one precious metal tumbled to a trading session minimum of about $1,199.00, a level not observed since February 17, as market participants kept factoring in an increased chance of a near-term American interest rate rise.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6681

 

[riki143]

German retail sales report shocking dip in April
5/31/2016

In April, German retail sales found themselves in negative territory, going down by approximately 0.9%, which appeared to be their second consecutive decrease. That definitely cast some doubt over hopes that consumer spending is going to power growth in the EU’s number one economy because foreign trades edges down.

The volatile indicator, often subject to frequent revisions, dared to completely ruin expectations in a Reuters poll for a 0.9% surge on the month, according to the data provided by the Federal Statistics Office unveiled on Tuesday. By the way, March’s data was revised down to an obvious decline of 1.4 from a previously posted drop of 1.1%.

Apart from that, on the year, retail sales managed to go up 2.3% in real terms. It appeared to be a serious market soar, especially compared with a downwardly revised surge of about 0.6% last month. Meanwhile, financial analysts surveyed by Reuters had hoped for a more moderate ascend of 1.9%.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6682

 

[riki143]

FTSE 100 goes up driven by strong Asian lead
5/31/2016

British shares kicked off the holiday-shortened trading week somewhat higher with market participants deriving inspiration from Asia, in particular from Chinese shares, showing the greatest ascend for three months.

The FTSE 100 index gained up to 0.2%, trading at 6,283.68, thus finding itself on track for its most impressive gain since April. The given benchmark posted a 1.9% revenue last week. On Monday, British markets were unavailable due to the late May bank holiday, while trading on American markets was closed too because of the Memorial Day holiday.

Tuesday’s surge for the FTSE 100 arose on the back of a positive trading session in Asia, where the Shanghai Composite Index closed +3.3%. It went up following increased upbeat sentiment that Chinese shares might soon be included in the crucial MSCI global benchmark.

The revenues in London were also backed up by the fact that markets are quite confident that if the US major bank gets down to another rate lift in June, the American economy is supposed to be sturdy enough to handle the probable fallout.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6683

 

[riki143]

ISM Manufacturing Preview: ¿Greenback strength to continue?
6/1/2016

Today, June 1st, will be released in United States the ISM Manufacturing PMI at 14:00 GMT, which should have a decline to 50.5 from the 50.8 that was registered in April, according to the latest consensus for May. During the 2016, Manufacturing surveys has shown some mixed tone in their results, as during Q1 it had only one positive reading (March: 49.5, from 48.2) and Q2 is having an average of 51.3 in the reading. Recent US regional manufacturing's surveys has been showing some negative tone and eventually it could end with a negative reading for May, which also can have a little negative effect on the US Dollar.

However, a reading above the forecast (50.5) and the 50.8 could give another bullish momentum to the greenback, which has been gaining some strength in recent days. An example can be seen on the USD/CHF daily chart, where we should note that it broke a secondary bearish trend line and it's heading to the parity zone. That positive reading of ISM Manufacturing could make that possible, as the technical overview is favoring to that scenario. 50-SMA and 200-SMA are both heading to the upside, where another bearish trend line is placed (around 1.0030 price zone).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9107

 

[riki143]

GBP/USD: "Triple Top" as the driving force of the bearish revolution
1/6/2016

There’s a “Triple Top” at the last high, which has been confirmed. Therefore, the price is falling down. We’ve got a pullback from a support at 1.4473, so it’s possible to see an upward correction in the short term. Anyway, bears are still strong, so the decline is likely going to be continued soon.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, there’s a “V-Top”, which led to the current downward movement. However, here’s a “Double Bottom” at the local low, so an upward correction becomes possible. Therefore, we should keep an eye on a resistance at 1.4548 as the probable bullish target.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9111

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: bears go ahead the trend line
6/1/2016

The price has faced a resistance near the downtrend line, so we’ve got a “V-Top” at the local high, which led to the current decline. Therefore, the market is likely going to continue falling down towards a support at 1.1085, which is strengthened by the uptrend line. If a pullback from this line happens, there’ll be a chance to see an upward correction.

The last local flat has been finally ended by the current bearish rally. Also, there’s a “V-Top” on the Moving Average lines, so bears are likely going to move on towards a support at 1.1097 – 1.1085. If sellers be stopped somewhere in this area, a local rise becomes possible.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9108

 

[riki143]

NZD/USD reversed from support zone
1/6/2016

-NZD/USD reversed from support zone
-Next buy target - 0.6850

NZD/USD has been rising in the last few trading sessions – following the earlier sharp upward reversal from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6670 (low of the previous minor correction (iv)), lower daily Bollinger Band and the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse from January. The upward reversal form this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Morning Star.

NZD/USD is likely to rise further to the next buy target at the nearby resistance level 0.6850 (which reversed the previous minor correction (ii), as can be seen from the daily NZD/USD chart below).

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9112

 

[riki143]

GBP/AUD falling inside intermediate correction (B)
6/1/2016

-GBP/AUD falling inside intermediate correction (B)
-Next sell target - 1.9750

GBP/AUD recently reversed down strongly from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 2.0500 (previous buy target set in our earlier forecast for this currency pair), upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from November of 2015. The downward reversal from this resistance zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bearish Engulfing – marking the end of the previous wave (A).

GBP/AUD is likely to fall further in the active intermediate correction (B) toward the next sell target at the support level 1.9750.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9113

 

[riki143]

EUR/USD: "Morning Star" led to the upward correction
6/1/2016

There’s a “Morning Star” at the local low, which led to the current upward correction. The 21 Moving Average is acting as a resistance. However, there’s nothing that can stop bulls on the way towards the 34 Moving Average. If we see any bearish patterns on this line, sellers will probably try to taste the lower “Window” once again. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Low-Price Harami” hasn’t been confirmed, so the pair is free to test the 55 Moving Average again. If so, bears are going to return into the game.

We’ve got a “Tower”, a “Harami” and a “Doji” at the local low. The last candles are bullish and there isn’t any reversal pattern so far. Therefore, the current correction is likely going to move on until a bearish pattern arrives.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/analytics/9114

 

[riki143]

Aussie benefits from services surveys
6/3/2016

On Friday, the Australian dollar held its gains, driven by a positive services survey as well as downbeat services PMI in China. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen traded in rather a narrow range right after wage data.

The currency pair AUD/USD was worth 0.7237, showing a 0.11% rise, while USD/JPY traded at 108.87, staying flat. As for EUR/USD, this currency pair dropped 0.02%, trading at 1.1151.

In China, the Caixin services PMI edged down to 51.2, which was below the expected 52.0 in May as well as down from 51.8 in April.

A bit earlier in Australia the AIG services index leapt to 51.5 for May. That’s lower than 49.7 in April.

In May, capacity utilization tumbled, while price measures remain muted, thus pointing out to the lack of inflation pressure.

May’s return of the large services sector to expansion appears to be an obvious sign of the resilience of the Australian economy even as it keeps transitioning in the wake of dropping mining-related investment as well as lower terms of trade.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6700

 

[riki143]

NYMEX and Brent fall slightly in Asia
6/3/2016

On Friday, crude prices stood flat to weaker during early Asia trade as traders’ bearing sentiment was intact after OPEC meeting in Vienna.

In New York, July delivery WTI crude futures sank 0.02%, being worth $49.16 per barrel. At the same time, Brent oil futures tumbled 0.04%, trading at $50.02.

On Thursday overnight, oil futures went up, thus reversing territory late in the trading session, because a steep descend in American crude inventories compensated a widely expected OPEC’s verdict to leave its crude output ceiling intact.

On Thursday, oil reached session-minimums after OPEC finished its semi-annual gathering in Vienna without making any changes to its output ceiling. That arose amid a bullish statement from Saudi Arabia, trying to soothe market sentiments by simply pledging not to flood energy markets with extra oil in the nearer months. Meanwhile, Iran hinted it’s not going to slow its output as this country tries to get back to its pre-sanctions levels.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6701

 

[riki143]

Dollar goes down ahead of US jobs data
6/3/2016

On Friday, the evergreen buck edged down against the Japanese yen as well as the common currency during Asia trade, as market participants are currently awaiting the closely-monitored American jobs data later in the day.

The US dollar was changing hands at ¥108.66 right after dipping to ¥108.52 overnight, the lowest value since May 16, compared to Thursday’s outcome ¥108.88 achieved in New York.

The common currency traded a bit lower at $1.1157, compared to $1.1146 on Thursday. The number one European currency weakened overnight right after Mario Draghi, ECB chief left open the door to radical action if inflation is below target.

The market sentiment has cleared up when American shares and oil recovered, notwithstanding inability of a recent gathering of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to reach an agreement on a long-awaited production ceiling. Meanwhile, in Tokyo, shares dared to regain after a two-day losing marathon, with the benchmark Nikkei Stock Average going up 0.2% midday.

More:
https://new.fxbazooka.com/news/6702