Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

XAU/USD: gold is targeting higher levels
12 April 2016

Daily. It seems that corrective wave [E] still wasn’t finished. At the final section we see the formation of the final part of the upward triple Zigzag – wave (z).

H4. We assume that after the wave (X) was over the pair started developing Zigzag (Z). Today and in the next trading days we expect the price to keep moving towards 1284.2. Then the asset will reverse down.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8581

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD falling inside minor correction 2
12 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD falling inside minor correction 2
-Next sell target - 1.4730

EUR/AUD continues to fall inside the minor correction 2 – which started earlier - when the price reversed down from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 1.5200 (former support level from March, which reversed the previous A-wave, as can be seen below), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp intermediate ABC correction (2) from the middle of February.

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further in the active wave 2 toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4730 (which has been repeatedly reversing this currency pair from the start of last month). Strong resistance remains at 1.5200.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8585

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Harami" played into the bulls hands
12 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The market has been rising, which just brought a new high. Previously, the pair got a support on the 21 Moving Average and a “Three Methods” pattern has been formed afterwards. So, the price is likely going to continue moving up, but also there’s an opportunity to see a local correction on the way. At the same time, we’ve got a “High Wave” and a “Hanging Man” on the Daily chart, but they haven’t confirmed yet, so the market can ignore them easily. Under this circumstances, today’s candle is likely going to be a bullish one.

We’ve got an “Engulfing” and a “Harami” on the 55 Moving Average, which led to the current rise and a new high. We've got a possible “Shooting Star”, but it hasn't confirmed yet. So, it’s likely to see a downward correction from the nearest resistance line during the day. Anyway, bulls are still have enough power to resume their rally after the local correction.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8583

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD rising inside minor impulse wave (v)
12 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/USD rising inside minor impulse wave (v)
-Next buy targets – 0.7720 and 0.7800

AUD/USD continues to rise inside the minor impulse wave (v) - which started earlier – when the price reversed up from the support zone lying between the support level 0.7500 (which also previously stopped the earlier minor correction (ii)) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from the end of February. The active impulse wave (v) belongs to the C-wave of the sharp intermediate ABC correction (2) from January.

AUD/USD is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves (v) and C toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7720 (top of the previous impulse (iii)) – the breakout of which can lead to further gains toward 0.7800 (intersecting with the resistance trendline of the daily up channel from January, which encloses the active wave (2)).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8586

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for April 13: beware the Chinese dragon

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar still remains vulnerable with the USD Index holding below 95 points. Investors remain skeptical about the Fed’s tightening prospects on the April 27 meeting. What’s more, the US currency is hurt by the strong oil market recovery: Brent price broke above 43 dollars on Tuesday. Such а positive market sentiment could be hurt by China’s trade balance on Wednesday – beware the risk. Tomorrow you should also watch US retail sales and PPI: upbeat forecasts pave the ground for a local USD retracement.

EUR/USD is consolidating slightly below the 1.1400 mark. On Tuesday, bulls were trying to break this figure to the upside, but faced strong resistance at 1.1460. In the medium term, we expect the US Dollar to extend the upside, but the 1.1450/1.1510 area is a hard nut to crack. Key support – 1.1350.

GBP/USD has also pushed to the upside on strong UK labor market figures, but was capped by 1.4350. You may see a long-legged candle being formed on the daily chart. The 55-day MA is now acting as a resistance, so we expect the pair to retest 1.4050 in the coming sessions.

As for USD/JPY, a local double bottom is being formed here with a neckline at 108.40. Correction could extend to 109.00.

What’s more, the USD/CAD pair is worth observing these days. Bears are dominating for a third consecutive day. Break below the strong support at 1.2800 (March highs) would pave the ground for more downside. Bank of Canada is scheduled to meet on Wednesday – negative comments about the CAD’s strength could become a temporary risk for our bearish forecast.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8589

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Three Methods" helped to bears
13 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

Despite of a “Shooting Star” and an “Engulfing” at the last high, the current decline looks like just a local correction. The price has reached the 55 Moving Average, which could act as a support, so a small bullish movement is a likely possible in the next few hours. Anyway, the main target for bears is the nearest “Window”. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’re a “High Wave” and a “Doji”, which both have been confirmed, so today’s candle is likely going to be a black one.

We’ve got a very bearish “Shooting Star” with a quite long shadow, which led to the current downward movement. The price found a lodgement under the Moving Average lines. We don't have any reversal patterns so far, but the market is likely going to taste the 144 Moving Average once again. If a pullback from this line happens, it's be a chance for bears to deliver a new low.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8602

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: "Window" made a good job
13 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The pair has been rising since a lot of reversal patterns were formed on the nearest “Window”. So, the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average. As we can see on the Daily chart, there're an “Inverted Hammer” and a “Doji” at the last low, which both were confirmed by yesterday’s white candle. So, today’s candle is probably going to be a white as well.

Anyway, the current rise could be just a correctional part of the main bearish trend. The price reached the 89 Moving Average, which could act as a resistance. Considering that we haven't got any bearish reversal patterns so far, it's possible to see just a local downward movement and a new intraday high afterwards.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8603

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 14
13 April 2016
By Elizabeth Belugina

Chinese trade balance have diminished traders’ concerns about the economic outlook for Asian and global economy. Even the reduction in the IMF’s world growth forecast didn’t seem important in these circumstances.

US dollar index reversed up and has potential for further growth. Although American retail sales came below forecast, the previous reading was revised to the upside. US inflation data is due at 12:30 GMT on Thursday, the forecast is rather good.

European currency breached support levels versus US dollar and British pound. The euro area’s industrial production fell by 0.8% in February, making the biggest decline in 18 months. The region will release March inflation figures at 09:00 GMT. Focus on support at 1.1260 and 1.1210/00 for EUR/USD. The next important level is at 1.1140. Resistance is at 1.1330 и 1.1385.

GBP/USD was very volatile in the 1.4200/1.4300 area. British pound is positively reacting to oil prices growth. Yet, the results of the Bank of England’s meeting are due at 11:00 GMT on Thursday. No changes in the regulator’s policy and no hawkish statements are expected. Support is at 1.4170 and 1.4050, while resistance is at 1.4350 and 1.4400.

USD/JPY managed to recover as the market’s risk sentiment improved. The pair may test resistance at 109.50 and 110.00, by the way up won't be easy. Support is at 108.50.

AUD/USD once again tested levels above 0.7700. There was a bearish engulfing at H4, so Aussie is vulnerable for decline to 0.7630/00. Australia will release labor market data at 00:30 GMT. The forecast is mixed.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8605

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bears ripped the "Rectangle" to shreds
14 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market was trading in a flat for two weeks, which finally led to the current decline. There’s a reversal “Triple Top” pattern, so the pair is likely going to reach a support 1.1217 – 1.1188. If we see a pullback from this area, bulls will have a chance to achieve a resistance area between the 55 Moving Average and the level at 1.1273.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price movement in a range of the “Rectangle” pattern was finally ended by the strong bearish rally. The price faced a support at 1.1259, so currently we’ve got a local upward correction. If the pair gets a resistance at 1.1284, a decline will likely continue towards a support at 1.1237 – 1.1219.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8607

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: "Thorn" made bears come back
14 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

We've got a “Thorn” on the upper resistance zone, which led to the current decline. The market is going to face a support at 1.4117, so if bears won’t have any issues with this level, we should keep an eye on the nearest support at 1.4052. If a pullback happens afterwards, it’ll be a chance to see an upward correction.

There’s a “Triple Top”, which brought bears to the market. The price faced a support at 1.4140, so an upward correction becomes possible. If the pair gets a resistance at 1.4156 – 1.4170, bears are likely going to deliver a new low.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8609

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: the stroke of a "Hammer"
14 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

There’re a “Shooting Star” and an “Engulfing”at the last high, which have been confirmed. The price reached the nearest “Window”, so in case of a possible pullback from here, it’ll be a chance to see an upward correction. As we can see on the Daily chart, candles at the last high look like a “Tower” pattern. So, the market is likely going to decline during the day.

The price has found a lodgement under the Moving Average lines. There's a “Hammer” on the nearest support line, but it hasn't confirmed yet. So, it’s possible to see a bullish correction towards the last “Three Methods” pattern in the short term.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8613

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4730
14 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/AUD broke support level 1.4730
-Next sell targets - 1.4600 and 1.4470

EUR/AUD recently broke through the support level 1.4730, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level follows the earlier breakout of the support trendline of the daily up channel from the start of March – which accelerated the active minor correction 2, which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from last month.

EUR/AUD is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 1.4600, the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next strong support level 1.4470 (which reversed the previous waves (2) and ②).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8614

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

FX BAZOOKA trading plan for April 15

By Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains rather vulnerable after we’ve seen slower than expected US inflation on Thursday. However, EUR/USD remains under bearish pressure mostly due to the bearish factors: the pair extends correction after approaching the 1.1450/1.1510 long-term resistance area. Next support for the pair lies at 1.1220 (38.2% Fibonacci from the March rally). Break lower will open the way to 1.1140.

GBP/USD also remains a SELL for the coming sessions: the pair came under a renewed bearish pressure after hitting 1.4350 yesterday. The BOE meeting today failed to bring any surprises, but the central bank warned the EU exit will hurt the UK economy.

AUD/USD is pushing higher, supported by the strong labor market data released on Thursday. Option barriers are clustered around 0.7750. Beware the Chinese GDP and industrial manufacturing data release on Friday – this is something that could initiate a pullback in the Aussie’s rally.

As for USD/JPY, the pair has potential for more upside: key resistance moved to 110 yen. This level will be crucial for the further dynamics of the market. In my view, the USD upside still remains limited in this pair.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8621

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: price came back in a range of "Triangle"
15 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The market has came back in a range of the current “Triangle” pattern and finally faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which brought a local flat. The price is likely going to reach the next support at 1.1217. If we see a pullback from this line, bulls will have an opportunity to achieve a resistance area between the the 55 Moving Average and the level at 1.1326.

The pair found a support at 1.1242, which stopped bears, so we've got an open door for an upward correction. It's likely that the market is going to get a resistance at 1.1284 – 1.1294. If so, a decline will probably happen in the direction of a support at 1.1233 – 1.1219.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8624

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: one more "Thorn"
15 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

We've got one more “Thorn”, which led to the current upward correction. The market is likely going to get a support at 1.4117 – 1.4089 once again. If so, bulls will probably try to reach a resistance at 1.4234, which is strengthened by the downtrend line.

There’s a flat in progress on the one-hour chart. We’ve got a support at 1.4120 and a resistance on the Moving Average lines. Therefore, the pair is likely going to rise towards a resistance at 1.4170 – 1.4177. If bulls be stopped here, we should keep en eye on a support at 1.4120 – 1.4089 as the next bearish goal.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8626

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF reached buy target 0.9650
15 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reached buy target 0.9650
-Next buy target - 0.9800

USD/CHF recently rose sharply breaking through the resistance level 0.9650, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 0.9650 (former strong support level, which reversed the previous minor impulse waves (i) and (iii) in February and March) is likely to accelerate the active intermediate impulse wave (C)- which started earlier – when the pair reversed up from the major long-term support level 0.9500.

USD/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave (C) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9800 (coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp downward impulse from the start of March).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8630

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/AUD broke support levels 1.8600 and 1.8500
15 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/AUD broke support levels 1.8600 and 1.8500
-Next sell target – 1.8000

GBP/AUD continues to decline after the earlier breakout of the support levels 1.8600 (which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair) and 1.8500 (which stopped the previous minor impulse wave (iii)). The breakout of the support level 1.8500 is likely to accelerate the active C-wave of the intermediate ABC correction (2) from last August.

GBP/AUD is expected to fall further in the active waves (v), C and (2) toward the next sell target at the round support level 1.8000. Sell stop-loss can be placed above the recently broken price level 1.8600.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8631

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for April 18-24


By Kira Iukhtenko

The British pound attempted to recover at the beginning of the new week, but was capped by the 1.4350 mark. The pair is forming a candle with a long upper shadow on the weekly chart. The picture remains bearish and we expect the pair to break lower in the nearest future. Key support for the pair lies at 1.4090 and 1.4050. A break below 1.4050 would trigger a quicker selloff.

As can be seen from the H4 chart, the pair is now trading in a corrective bullish channel. The 1.4200 resistance is now crucial – a break higher would open the way for more upside correction, while the move will likely be limited by the 1.4300 area. The cable’s recovery will be limited by the 1.4250 area.

On the new week we’ll watch the UK labor market data on Wednesday. Unemployment held at its lowest level since 2008 in February. On Thursday, retail sales are scheduled for release. In February the reading fell by 0.4%. We’ll see whether anything changed in March.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8635

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for April 18-24

By Elizabeth Belugina

USD/JPY recovered from 107.60, but met resistance in the 109.75 area. The pair was supported by the improved market’s risk sentiment. Investors’ mood became better as Chinese economic figures weren’t as bad as some had feared, and China is very important for the global economy.

Data released in the United States this week though don’t give any reasons to expect a strong increase in the American currency. US inflation figures came lower than expected and so did retail sales. It means that the possibility of a hawkish message from the Federal Reserve this month isn’t high. Moreover, the possibility of Japanese currency intervention at these levels is low, and this is another negative factor for the pair.

Next week Japan will release trade balance on Monday and manufacturing PMI and tertiary industry activity on Friday. The market’s risk sentiment will also depend on the outcome of Doha oil summit on Sunday: the event creates negative risk for USD/JPY.

The trend remains bearish and the pair will likely retest the recent lows. Decline below 107.60 will open the way down to 106.40 (38.2% Fibonacci of 2011-2015 advance). Resistance is at 110.00/10 (September 2014 high). If the bulls manage to get above this level, we will see correction up to 110.75 and 111.50.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8636

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: forecast for April 18-24

By Elizabeth Belugina

AUD/USD once again rose to 0.7700 as the market’s risk sentiment improved and commodity prices went up.

However, this resistance level at 0.7700 will be a hard obstacle for the bulls. Here we find a resistance line, which is strengthened by the bearish divergence on the daily chart.

Fundamentally the increase in commodities may reverse after the oil summit in Doha this weekend making US dollar rise versus commodity currencies like Aussie.

On Tuesday the Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes of its April meeting. We will also hear from the central bank’s governor Stevens. The RBA probably doesn’t like the high levels of the national currency. On Thursday NAB quarterly business confidence will be released.

Sell targets lie at 0.7530/00. The pair should find some support in this area.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8638