Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for April 18-24

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD breached down the lower border of its sideways channel at 1.1330 and settled in the new range between 1.1300 and 1.1230. American economic figures weren’t very impressive, so the decline was limited.

The highlight of the next week will be the European Central Bank’s meeting on Thursday. Last month the ECB President Mario Draghi said that the regulator is not planning to cut rates further anytime soon. If he repeats this position, the euro will get support. If Draghi hints that the euro area’s economy needs further monetary stimulus, the euro will suffer. Other important events in the European economic calendar include the release of German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indicators on Tuesday and the region’s flash services and manufacturing PMIs on Friday.

All in all, the strength of the US dollar will largely depend on the results of the meeting between the large oil producers of OPEC and Russia on Sunday, April 17. Oil prices have strengthened ahead of this event, so there is the risk that after the meeting itself we will see a selloff. This will be a positive factor for the US dollar and negative for EUR/USD.

Support is at 1.1140 ahead of 2016 support line at 1.0935. Resistance is in the 1.1340/75 area (March 17, February highs) ahead of 1.1440/60.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8637

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for April 18-24

By Kira Iukhtenko

Core inflation in United States rose by 0.1% in March, down from 0.3% in February. The weaker readings were driven by a monthly fall in clothing prices and lower healthcare inflation. Below-the-forecast reading adds to uncertainty about the further Fed’s policy moves. We believe that the prospects of the US currency remain subdued in the current conditions.

However, the Qatar oil producers’ meeting on Sunday, April 17th, is a risk to our main scenario. Disappointment from the meeting could trigger a sharp US Dollar correction to the upside, so beware this risk.

As for the economic calendar, on the new week we’ll pay attention to the housing market figures on Tuesday and the crude oil inventories data on Wednesday. On Thursday watch the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8639

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: an intraday "Triple Top" is going to end
18 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

There's a “Triple Top” pattern, which led to the current downward movement. The price faced a support at 1.1242, so we’ve got a local correction. Considering a possible “Flag”, the market is likely going to reach a support at 1.1217 – 1.1188. If we see a pullback somewhere in here, it’ll be a chance for bulls to achieve a resistance area between the 89 Moving Average and the level at 1.1273.

The pair found a resistance on the 55 Moving Average, which brought a consolidation into the market. There's a possible “Triple Top” in progress. If it confirms, the main goal is going to be a support at 1.1242 – 1.1222. At the same time, an upward correction will be possible afterwards, so we should bearing in mind a resistance at 1.1259 – 1.1284.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8642

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: consolidation between the "Thorns"
18 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

We’ve got a local “V-Top” pattern, which led to a decline towards a support at 1.4170. The market is likely going to reach the next support at 1.4052. If bears be stopped here, there’ll be a chance to see an upward movement in the direction of a resistance at 1.4117 – 1.4194.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price faced a support at 1.4170. Currently, there’s a local consolidation in progress. Therefore, the pair is likely going to achieve a support at 1.4120 – 1.4089. In case of a pullback from this area, bulls will have an opportunity to reach a resistance at 1.4120 – 1.4150.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8643

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: key time for 108.00
18 April 2016

Daily. USD/JPY tried to bottom around 108.00 during the past week. The bulls tried to make the pair stay above 109.00. However, on Friday they were stopped by Tenkan-sen, and the pair once again fell to 108.00.

As a result, despite the fact that the market is oversold, all lines of the daily Ichimoku indicator are pointed to the downside. The Cloud is expanding, the “dead cross” is active. As a result, the bears will likely soon attack 108.00 once again.

H4. On H4 the pair reached the Ichimoku Cloud, but the narrowing of Tenkan-Kijun channel and the pair’s return to 108.70 don’t allow the bulls to continue correction to the upside.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8648

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

BNP Paribas: buy EUR/USD
18 April 2016

Analysts at BNP Paribas recommend buying EUR/USD at 1.1290 with Take Profit at 1.1600 and Stop Loss at 1.1140.

According to the specialists, the euro will benefit in the risk off environment as the euro area has a large current account surplus. The US dollar, on the other hand, will lose to the single currency because the Federal Reserve will likely remain dovish and put off further rate hikes.

The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to leave its policy unchanged. BNP Paribas doesn’t expect the event to hurt the euro much.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8649

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "Shooting Star" has stopped bulls
18 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

We’ve got a confirmation of the previously formed “Hammer” pattern. Moreover, there’s a possible “Three Methods” in progress, so the market is likely going to reach the 34 Moving Average. If price gets a resistance on this line, it'll be a chance for bears to resume their rally. As we can see on the Daily chart, here's a “Tower” pattern, but we’ve got a “High Wave” at the local low, so today’s candle is probably going to be a white one. If the price forms a pullback from the middle of the huge black candle, a new low will be delivered soon.

The price has been moving in a flat since a “Hammer” appeared at the last low. Also, we’ve got a “Three Methods” pattern, which points to a possibility that the current correction is likely going to be continued in the direction of the 55 Moving Average.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8650

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GOLD: trade ideas and technical levels
18 April 2016
By Kira Iukhtenko

Gold price remains stuck in the narrow 1229.0 - 1339.0 range on Monday, April 18. According to our main scenario, the yellow metal will likely develop more upside in the coming sessions. Capital flight to uncertainty will likely support gold prices as the oil producers meeting in Doha failed to bring any results.

Technically, the price holds above the former bearish trend resistance on the H4 chart. Break above the 1239.50 resistance (local high and 38.2% Fibonacci from the April decline) would open the way to 1244.00 amd 1248.0.

However, there is still a risk for more downside to be developped. This scenario could become true in case of a break below the daily low of 1129.9. Next target to go short lies at 1223.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8651

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: bears let the "Black Crows" run free
18 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

There're a “Doji” and a “Three Black Crows” at the last high. Monday’s opening brought a new “Window”, so the price is likely going to get a resistance on it. If so, it’ll be possible to see a decline towards the last low. As we can see on the Daily chart, a “Hanging Man” candle has been confirmed, so the nearest support is probably going to be tested once again.

We’ve got a “Three Methods”, which was formed on Friday. This pattern did a great job, but a “Hammer” and an “Inverted Hammer” arrived afterwards, so there’s an open door for an achievement of the 21 Moving Average.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8653

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
18 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/JPY reversed from resistance zone
-Next sell target - 148.70

GBP/JPY opened this week with the downward gap – which follows the earlier downward reversal from the resistance zone lying between the pivotal resistance level 155.00 (former strong support level, which stopped the previous sharp minor impulse wave 1 in February, as can be seen below) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of the previous sharp minor impulse wave (iii) from the end of March.

GBP/JPY is likely to fall further in the active impulse waves 3 and (5) toward the next sell target at the support level 152.50 (low of the previous impulse (iii)) – the breakout of which can lead to further losses toward the next sell target at 148.70 (target price for the completion of the active impulse wave (5)).

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https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8654

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
18 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD rising inside minor impulse wave 3
-Next buy target – 1.0000

AUD/CAD recently reversed up sharply from the support zone lying at the intersection of support level 0.9800, lower daily Bollinger Band, 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the previous sharp upward impulse 1 from the end of February and the former resistance trendline of the recently broken daily down channel from December – acting as support now after it was broken. The upward reversal from this support zone completed the previous minor ABC correction 2 from March.

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next buy target at the parity (which has been reversing the price from the start of March, as can be seen below). Strong support remains at 0.9800.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8655

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 19

By Elizabeth Belugina

Risk sentiment initially suffered on Monday because of decline in oil prices and an earthquake in Ecuador. However, oil was rather quick to recover the initial losses after the world’s leading oil producers failed on Sunday to reach an agreement on production freeze in Doha. WTI oil closed the bearish gap and returned above $40. Brent tested $42.50 area on the upside. All in all, the market seems rather calm for now, but it fells like it still hasn't chosen longer-term direction. The US will release housing market data at 12:30 GMT.

Resistance for EUR/USD lies at 1.1330/45 – this is the important swing area. Next resistance will be at 1.1375. Don’t miss the release of German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment index at 09:00 GMT. The forecasts are rather good. Support is at 1.1300 and 1.1260.

GBP/USD is volatile in 1.4130/1.4255 area. There’s trend line resistance in the 1.4300 area ahead of 1.4370 and 1.4460. Support is at 1.4165, 1.4130 and 1.4085.

USD/JPY closed the bearish gap and returned from below 108.00 to 108.80. Resistance is at 109.05 and then at 109.75/110.00 and 110.70. Only above 110.70 the bearish pressure will ease. Support is at 108.45 and 107.65. The decline below 107.60 will open the way for the bigger fall towards 106.50.

AUD/USD closed the gap and returned above 0.7700. Watch the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s meeting minutes at 01:30 GMT. The RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak at 13:30 GMT. Resistance is at 0.7760/80. Support is at 0.7630.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8657

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: bullish correction in a range of "Pennant"
19 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price faced a support on the 89 Moving Average, which led to the current upward movement. There's a possible “Pennant” in progress, so the market is likely going to reach the upper side of this pattern. If a pullback appears, bears will have a chance to achieve a support at 1.1273 – 1.1242.

As we can see on the one-hour chart, the price has been rising in a range of the “Pennant” pattern, which includes three “Flags” inside. It’s likely that the pair is going to get a resistance at 1.1344 – 1.1371. If so, there’ll be an opportunity to see the market on a support at 1.1309 – 1.1284.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8662

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: bulls run smack into the bearish "Thorn"
19 April 2016
Sergey Logachev

The price has formed two “Thorns” in a row, which led to the current rise. Moreover, the downtrend line has been broken, so bulls are probably going to taste a resistance at 1.4426. Considering a possible pullback from this level, it’s likely to see the price on a support at 1.4282 – 1.4234 afterwards.

There’s a flat in a range of the current resistance zone. We’ve got a small “Flag”, so it’s likely to see the market higher. If the price gets a resistance at 1.4369 – 1.4405, a downward correction will be possible, so we should keep an eye on a support at 1.4240.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8663

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7000
19 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/USD reached buy target 0.7000
-Next buy target - 0.7050

NZD/USD continues to rise after the earlier breakout of the resistance level 0.7000, which was set in our previous forecast as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level is likely to accelerate the active minor impulse wave 3, which reversed up recently from the support zone lying between the support level 0.6860 (former strong resistance which has been reversing the price from October) and the 38.2% Fibonacci correction of the previous upward impulse from March.

NZD/USD is likely to rise further in the active impulse wave 3 (of the intermediate impulse (C) of the primary wave Ⓒ) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.7050 (forecast price for the completion of wave 3).

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8664

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

NZD/JPY reached buy target 76.200
19 April 2016
By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-NZD/JPY reached buy target 76.200
-Next buy target – 78.00

NZD/JPY continues to rise inside the minor ABC correction 2 – which earlier broke through the resistance level 76.200, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of the resistance level 76.20 is likely to accelerate the active (c)-wave – which started earlier, when the price reversed up from the support level 74.60, which is the upper boundary of the strong support zone which has been reversing the pair from January.

NZD/JPY is likely to rise further toward the next buy target at the resistance level 78.00, which reversed earlier waves A and (2), as can be seen below.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8665

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: "harami" is the only one hope for bears
19 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The 89 Moving Average and the lower “Window” have acted as a support, so we’ve got a “Hammer” at the last low. Bulls formed two “Three Methods” patterns on the way, which points to a possibility that the current upward correction is probably going to achieve higher levels. At the same time, a local downward correction is a possible during the day. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s a correction in a range of the huge black candle. We’ve got a “High Wave” at the last low, which has been confirmed. Therefore, it’s likely that the current rise will go on.

There's a bullish trend above the last “Window”. The price has found a lodgement above the 89 Moving Average, but we've got a “Harami” at the last high. So, a local downward movement becomes possible. Anyway, it’ll likely be just a correction, so bulls are still in the game.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8667

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: yesterday's "Window" becomes a support
19 April 2016
Galina Svetlova

The previously formed a “Morning Doji Star” and a “Three White Soldiers” have been confirmed, so yesterday’s “Window” was closed by the last white candles. We haven’t got any reversal patterns so far. It means that bulls are likely going to continue their rally, but a door for a possible local correction is a still open. As we can see on the Daily chart, there’s an upward correction in progress, so today’s candle is probably going to be a white one.

Yesterday’s “Window” has been closed by the bullish candles, which brought a “Three Methods” afterwards. Therefore, this pattern is likely going to act as a support. If so, the price will have a chance to deliver a new high soon.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8670

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 20

By Kira Iukhtenko

Risk-sentiment:

Despite the evident failure of the Doha talks, market sentiment remains rather upbeat: we’ve seen the risky currencies strengthen significantly over the recent days.

Economic calendar for April 20:

8:30 GMT – UK labor market data

10:00 GMT – ECB President Mario Draghi speaks

14:30 GMT - Crude oil inventories

20:15 GMT – Bank of Canada Governor Poloz speaks

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8671

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for April 21


EUR/USD: The market’s attention will be focused on the European Central Bank’s decision (11:45 GMT, no changes in policy are expected) and the press conference of the ECB President Mario Draghi (12:30 GMT). European economic figures were brighter since the last meeting, but the regulator will likely emphasize that monetary policy will remain accommodative. The euro may test levels around 1.1300/1.1270 ahead of the event. Decline below 1.1240 will open the way down to 1.1140. Resistance is at 1.1375, 1.1400 and 1.1460.

GBP/USD: British labor market data came out lower than expected. Growth of average hourly earnings slowed from 2.1% to 1.8%. It means lower wage inflation and lower chance that the Bank of England will increase interest rates anytime soon. BoE’s member McCafferty made dovish comments – this is negative for the pound. On Thursday the UK will release retail sales data at 08:30 GMT. The indicator’s decline is expected to slow down, though consensus shows that there still will be a negative reading. The latest Brexit poll showed that more people will vote for Britain to remain in the European Union. GBP/USD has reached resistance line connecting February and March highs. Resistance is at 1.4470/1.4500. Support is at 1.4340 and pound looks vulnerable for correction to 1.4260 and 1.4115.

USD/JPY: US dollar made a higher low on and may try to correct up to resistance at 109.75, 110.00 and 110.75. Below support at 108.70 the pair should slide towards 108.00. Watch Philladelphia Fed manufacturing index at 12:30 GMT on Thursday.

AUD/USD: The pair is technically overbought and has potential for correction down. Decline below 0.7800 will open the way down to 0.7750 and 0.7700. Lower levels of oil will help the bears. Above 0.7800 the focus will be on 0.7850, though we are cautious about going long at this point without a sizeable correction down first.

More:
https://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/8687