Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Daily. Development within the long downtrend A is over. At the last section we see the formation of the initial phase of the upward correction B.

Weekly. This week we will likely see the pair’s growth, in line with the current layout of the chart. We expect the pair to form impulse [c].

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[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Weekly. Here’s the layout of the multi month uptrend. Let’s review the layout of the wave (IV) at the more detailed chart.

H4. The market is moving in the ‘endless’ sideways triangle [iv]. This week we may see the end of the wave e, and then the pair will resume moving down in the new wave [v].

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6633

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
5 October 2015

Daily. After a powerful decline within the impulse [A], we saw a complicated correction , which took form of an atypical triple three. It seems that at the last section the decline within the new trend [C] has already started.

H4. The pair has built the downside impulse 1, after which we saw the beginning of the upward correction 2. We cannot rule out the possibility that this wave will take form of a simple bullish Zigzag. As a result, this week we expect the pair to keep rising in line with the approximate trajectory shown at the chart.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6632

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis


Daily. The pair keeps moving within the upward corrective wave (4). This wave is taking form of a rather complicated double triple. Currently EUR/USD is forming its final part y. Let’s view the layout at Н4.

H4. We are probably seeing the development of the small correction (B), after which the market’s growth will continue. The approximate scheme of the potential future move is shown at the chart, though we recommend trading with caution as the market is forming complicated price patterns.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6631

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 6

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar was hit by weak US labor market data (primarily, NFP) on Friday. However, technically American currency has managed to hold its ground after the initial selloff. Traders still see that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rate this year – earlier than other central banks. The speeches of the Fed’s members due this week and the FOMC minutes due on Thursday should clarify the situation. On Monday, ISM non-manufacturing PMI also declined more than expected.

EUR/USD once again attempted to overcome the resistance line connecting August and September highs, but met resistance in the 1.1290 area. Support is in the 1.1210/00 zone, at 1.1165 and 1.1100. Data of medium and minor importance released in the euro area were mostly negative. Meetings of the European finance ministers will continue on Tuesday. Mario Drahi will speak at 17:00 GMT. The breakthrough to the upside is unlikely ahead of this speech. Further resistance is at 1.1330 and 1.1460.

GBP/USD was rejected down as it tried to approach 1.5250. British services PMI came at the lowest level since 2013. Below 1.5160 it should revisit support in the 1.5100 region. Above 1.5250 the next obstacle lies at 1.5325 (200-day MA) which will provide rather strong resistance. Fundamentally, it will be difficult for the cable to push much higher as the expectation if the Bank of England’s rate hike will be likely pushed back.

USD/JPY keeps moving within sideways trend between 121.00/30 and 119.00/118.50. The fact that US dollar managed to recover quickly enough after the release of poor NFP figures strengthens 118.50 support. Now it is more a rectangle than a triangle. We expect the pair to stay put in this corridor at least until the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Wednesday.

AUD/USD was capped by resistance at 0.7110 ahead of the meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday. The RBA is unlikely to ease policy. On the upside Aussie has potential to strengthen to the top of the triangle at 0.7200 (23.6% Fibo of the May-September decline). On the downside support is at 0.7025, 0.7000 and 0.6950.

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6641

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Aussie breaking through cloud
6 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The AUD/USD currency pair grew up to the Ichimoku cloud upper border on the four-hour time frame yesterday morning, testing the powerful resistance of 0.7090. However, the bulls felt confident after consolidating above the Tenkan-sen and Kijun lines. Today, we can speak about a break through Senkou Span B - trading within the Asian session is already held in the 0.7120 area. All Ichimoku indicator lines have turned upwards, supporting the bullish sentiment in the market. But even with this considered, the cloud is still negative. The pair is yet obvious to return to the recent resistance of 0.7090, then growth as high as up to the 72nd figure is possible.

Technical levels: support – 0.7090; resistance – 0.7130, 0.7200.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 0.7090; SL — 0.7070; TP1 — 0.7130; TP2 — 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6642

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Dollar recovered against yen
6 October 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The USD/JPY currency pair recovered into the 120.20 resistance area again during yesterday's trading session. Trading started quite positively, with the prices consolidating within the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. Feeling the support of the cloud's lower border, market participants began to buy the dollar against the yen, and soon, the currency pair rate got into the bullish zone, above the cloud. By evening, the pair has tested another level in the 120.40/50 area, reflecting rising risk appetite among traders. However, despite the golden cross formed by the Tenkan and Kijun lines, the Ichimoku cloud is still not willing to change for the positive. We do not rule out further consolidation, with the prices return to the cloud.

Technical levels: support – 120.00; resistance – 120.60.

Trade recommendations: out of market.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6643

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Danske Bank: trade signals for October 6

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1269, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1333

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5160, TAKE PROFIT 1.5318, STOP LOSS 1.5085

USD/JPY: Hold LONG at 120.20, TAKE PROFIT 123.13, STOP LOSS 119.66

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9695, TAKE PROFIT 0.9903, STOP LOSS 0.9639

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7375, TAKE PROFIT 0.7501, STOP LOSS 0.7300

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0823

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 182.00, TAKE PROFIT 179.32, STOP LOSS 183.43

NZD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.6480, TAKE PROFIT 0.6709, STOP LOSS 0.6420

Trade ideas:

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7045, TAKE PROFIT 0.7232, STOP LOSS 0.6980

USD/CAD: SELL at 1.3215, TAKE PROFIT 1.2862, STOP LOSS 1.3285

EUR/JPY: SELL at 134.93, TAKE PROFIT 133.16, STOP LOSS 135.75

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4735, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.4825

__________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6649

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 7

By Kira Iukhtenko

Financial markets are enjoying risk-on sentiment as the US labor market figures last week decreased expectations for a rate hike in 2015. Traders now await the FOMC meeting minutes release on Thursday – the publication could bring some certainty back to the market. Chinese markets remain closed until Thursday – this calms the global sentiment for a while.

EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.1200 mark, supported by the global USD weakness. The euro currency remains sustained, showing no reaction to the sharp contraction of the German factory orders. There is space for more upside in the coming sessions. Next target lies at 1.1280. Break below 1.1170 would confirm the bearish comeback.

GBP/USD keeps on consolidating around the 1.5160 mark. Daily fix above this level is needed to open the way to our next targets at 1.5230 and 1.5330. We’ll stay bullish above 1.5100. Don’t miss the UK industrial production on Wednesday (forecast - upbeat).

USD/JPY stays in a tight range, capped at 120.50. Technically, there is a chance for a decline to 119.50 in the coming sessions. However, The BOJ meeting on Wednesday is a risk – some economists expect the Japanese regulator to announce additional easing tomorrow.

AUD/USD enjoys the rebound, hitting a freshhigh at 0.7130.The RBA left rate unchanged at today’s meeting, supporting the Aussie. Strong resistance for the pair is seen at 0.7200/50 – we expect a bearish reversal from here.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6655

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
NZD/CAD: buy target – 0.8700
7 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• NZD/CAD reached buy target 0.8600
• Next buy target - 0.8700

NZD/CAD today reached the round resistance level 0.8600 – which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The price earlier broke through the resistance trendline from the start of April – which accelerated the active minor corrective wave 2 - which started earlier, when the price reversed up from the pivotal support level 0.8300 (as you can see from the daily NZD/CAD chart below).

If NZD/CAD breaks above the resistance level 0.8700 – the price can then rise to the next buy target at the resistance level (which reversed the pair multiple times in July and August).

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6661

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/NZD: sell target - 2.2720
7 October 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

• GBP/NZD reached sell target 2.3350
• Next sell target - 2.2720

GBP/NZD continues to fall strongly – following the earlier breakout of the support level 2.3350, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The breakout of this support level (which earlier reversed the price twice in August) intensified the bearish pressure on GBP/NZD – accelerating the active minor impulse wave 5, which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from September.

GBP/NZD is expected to fall further inside the active waves 5 and (C) toward the next sell target at the support level 2.2720 (previous monthly low from July and the forecast price for the completion of active wave (C)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6662

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 8

By Kira Iukhtenko

Demand for the US Dollar remained subdued on Wednesday - the market is now repricing the chance for the Fed’s rate hike in the year 2015. We’ll be watching US unemployment claims and FOMC meeting minutes on Thursday. The greenback has potential for more depreciation on the current week.
At the same time, the commodity market has rebounded sharply since early October. We’ll see whether this rally will be long-lived. China’s markets are to open on Thursday after a long holiday - this is a risk for the current bullish move. AUD/USD reached the levels above 0.7200 on Wednesday. Be careful with buying the pair at current levels, though: we expect a pullback from 0.7250.

EUR/USD is trying to break from the current sideways channel, but has’t reached much success yet. Sellers pulled the price back below 1.1280 as German data disappointed on Wednesday. We will stay out of the market for this pair until more certainty is brought to the market.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD pushed above 1.5160 due to strong UK manufacturing data. We see the next bullish target at 1.5330. Watch the Bank of England policy meeting tomorrow. No policy change is expected, but we’ll be listening to the overall tone of the UK monetary authorities. Major support now lies at 1.5100.

As we expected, USD/JPY pulled down from the 120.50 resistance. The pair is trading in the symmetric triangle with the next target for going short at 118.50. Watch a block of Japanese economic data tonight - current account and factory orders. Negative news could become a risk for our bearish scenario.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6668

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
Forex trading plan for October 9

The trading plan for Friday, October 9, was prepared and released before the end of the US trading session on Thursday, October 8.

Traders await the release of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes at 18:00 GMT on Thursday, so the volatility for Thursday isn’t over at this point. Market players want more hints about the timing of the Fed’s rate hike. Still, after the weak NFP figures for September, the impact of the minutes will likely be limited. Also note that some FOMC members will speak in the coming sessions: Williams, Lockhart and Evans. All these policymakers are doves, so their comments could be negative for USD.

EUR/USD tested levels above 1.1300, but then slipped to 1.1250 as the minutes of the European Central Bank’s September meeting showed that the ECB sees increased downside risks for inflation and thus leaves open door for further monetary stimulus. We still see 1.1330 as an important obstacle on the upside before we can see growth towards 1.1460. Euro will probably stay capped, though downside potential is limited. Support is at 1.1215 and 1.1170.

GBP/USD spiked to 1.5370, but then returned below the 200-day MA at 1.5320. The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. As expected, only 1 member of the Monetary Policy Committee voted to raise the benchmark interest rate, while other 8 said that it should remain at the current level of 0.5%. The central bank’s meeting minutes were dovish as the regulator expressed concerns about global growth and British inflation. Note that the Bank of England’s Governor Carney speaks at 18:00 GMT on Thursday. On Friday the UK will release trade balance at 08:30 GMT. A close below 1.5320 on Thursday will be bearish. Support is at 1.5240 and 1.5170. A close above 1.5320 will open the way to 1.5440 (55-day MA).

USD/JPY moved towards the lower edge of the ongoing consolidation pattern weakening to the 119.60 area, but found support there. Sideways trade will persist until we see a very clear signal of a break of either 121.50 or 118.50. For now, if you are trading this pair, use range trading strategies.

AUD/USD ran into the resistance of the daily Ichimoku Cloud in the 0.7200 area. Australia will release home loans early on Friday (forecast is positive). Resistance is at 0.7275 and 0.7300. Support is at 0.7085.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6681

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
US Dollar: forecast for October 12-18

Kira Iukhtenko

The Fed’s rate hike timing remains the most important topic for the currency traders. FOMC meeting minutes released last week disappointed. The members discussed the increased economic risks, not the need for a rate hike. Combination of the “dovish” minutes with the weak September labor market data killed the demand for the US currency. Chances for a rate hike this year are gradually declining.

On the new week, on Wednesday, we will watch September retail sales figures. According to the forecasts, data could render temporarily support for the US currency. However, the rally is unlikely to last long: CPI on Thursday is expected to show price growth slowdown.

What’s more, US companies are to release Q3 earnings on October 8-22. Data will give a clue to the US economic activity and set a new trend for risk sentiment.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6688

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
EUR/USD: forecast for October 12-18

By Elizabeth Belugina

The past week turned out to be positive for the euro. Despite the weak production data from Germany and the dovish tone of September ECB meeting minutes, the euro held its ground and managed to rise above the August-September resistance line and test levels above 1.13.

US dollar didn’t have much strength over the euro, as the data from the United States weren’t very bright either, plus the Federal Reserve’s September meeting minutes indicated that American central bank is concerned about the weak global economic growth and is not in a hurry to raise the interest rate. Weak NFP released a weak earlier also contributed to the lower expectations of the Fed’s rate hike.

Next week there won’t be a lot of news from the euro area. Pay attention to Germany’s ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and the region’s final September inflation figures on Friday. US economic calendar is more filled with important events like the publication of retail sales data on Wednesday and inflation figures on Friday.

In addition, beware of Chinese trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday: for now the single currency keeps strengthening on lower figures of China.

As a result, the balance of risks for EUR/USD in the near-term is to the upside. Initial resistance is at 1.1350 (the top of the short-term rising channel) and a fix above this level will open the way to 1.1400 and 1.1460 (September high/resistance since May 2014). The area of 1.1460/1.1500 will likely limit the upside of EUR/USD ahead of the ECB’s meeting on October 22 as the European Central Bank doesn’t want higher euro and can make some announcements about the additional quantitative easing (QE) which will hit the single currency. Support is at 1.1250 and 1.1170.

Daily EUR/USD

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6694

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: forecast for October 12-18

By Elizaveta Belugina

USD/JPY has spent another week trading sideways. This time the range has narrowed to 120.60/119.60.

The pair lacks drivers to move out of the current corridor. The upside is limited as the Bank of Japan (BOJ) didn’t announce additional monetary stimulus at its October 7thmeeting, so yen didn’t weaken. Moreover, the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s September meeting confirmed the central bank’s concerns about the global economic slowdown and the fact it is in no rush to raise interest rates. At the same time, the downside is also limited, because many investors still believe that the BOJ will ease policy further at its October 30th meeting. In addition, despite the weak September nonfarm payrolls (NFP), the expectations of the Fed rate hike this year are still alive.

These are the factors, which are keeping USD/JPY in range. A breakthrough will come only if dollar/yen closes above 121.50 or below 118.50. In our view, the possibility of a breakthrough next week isn’t very high. First of all, Japanese economic calendar looks rather empty. The most important event will be the release of the BOJ meeting minutes on Tuesday, but we don’t think that it will be a market mover. The US will publish several important pieces of data from Wednesday to Friday. These releases can push USD/JPY to the edges of the range, but unless we get some really big surprises they won’t change the market’s overall view on the Fed.

Daily USD/JPY

One thing we should mention, however, that USD/JPY still correlates with the market’s risk sentiment. Risk sentiment will be affected by Chinese economic statistics – trade balance on Tuesday and inflation on Wednesday. As few expect robust figures from China, growth in USD/JPY will likely be limited ahead of these releases. Also note that both in the United States and in Japan there will be bank holidays on Monday, so USD/JPY can make volatile moves on relatively small events like the speeches of the FOMC officials.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6693

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: forecast for October 12-18

Kira Iukhtenko

UK currency jumped by almost 300 pips since early October. The major reason is the weakness of the US currency and technical conditions. The cable reached our target of 1.5330. However, bearish BOE comments on Thursday paused the rally.

Cable is trading in a medium-term bearish channel formed in June. Fix above 1.5330 will open the way to our next targets at 1.5500 and 1.5580. In the current volatile market conditions, our targets could be hit in the coming days. Break above 1.5500 will confirm the trend reversal.

On Tuesday, we’ll be watching the UK inflation figures. It is expected to stay around zero. On Wednesday, we’ll be watching the labor market figures. UK employment has been showing positive dynamics as of late.

Chart 1. GBP/USD Daily

Chart 2. GBP/USD H4

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http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6691

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. In line with the forecast, the formation of the downward impulse wave A was completed. At the final part, we see the beginning of correction.

H4. As expected, we saw a powerful movement within the [c]. The pair will likely continue rising at the new week. We don’t recommend to go short for now as the pair may be going higher and higher.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6698

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Weekly. The market keeps forming the multiyear uptrend. The pair is currently forming corrective wave (IV), let us review its inner structure.

H4. At the new week, we expect formation of the final part of the converging horizontal triangle [iv], after which we’ll see collapse of price or its slow decline. The approximate scheme of the upcoming move is shown on the chart.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6697

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics
GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis
11 October 2015

Daily. After finishing the bullish correction wave , which took form of a triple three, we saw the beginning of a new downtrend [C]. In the coming weeks the pair will likely decline.

H4. The final part of the upside Zigzag 2 is ending. At the beginning of the week this wave will be over, and we will see a decline in the impulse wave 3.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6696