Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 15

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1315, TAKE PROFIT 1.1087, STOP LOSS 1.1402

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0869

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3185, TAKE PROFIT 1.3467, STOP LOSS 1.3100

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6335, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7320, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7260

Trade ideas:

GBP/USD: BUY at 1.5340, TAKE PROFIT 1.5563, STOP LOSS 1.5280

USD/CHF: SELL at 0.9730, TAKE PROFIT 0.9569, STOP LOSS 0.9798

AUD/USD: BUY at 0.7100, TAKE PROFIT 0.7250, STOP LOSS 0.7030

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.80, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 134.05

EUR/CAD: BUY at 1.4890, TAKE PROFIT 1.5192, STOP LOSS 1.4740

GBP/JPY: Possibly BUY

_________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
Danske Bank: trade signals for September 15 - Forex Analytics

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 16

By Elizabeth Belugina

Data released in the United States on Tuesday showed that US retail sales growth has slowed down in August, but the previous figures for July were revised to the upside. Overall, the report provides positive view of the US economy, though it doesn’t offer new hints about whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates on Thursday. On Wednesday, pay attention to the US inflation release at 12:30 GMT. In general, volatility should be high ahead of the Fed’s meeting, and many traders will be widely withdrawing their USD exposure. This will create moderate negative pressure on the greenback.

EUR/USD edged down to the 1.1300 area after spiking to 1.1372 on Monday. German and the euro area’s ZEW economic sentiment indexes significantly declined. Support is at 1.1280, 1.1240 and 1.1150. Resistance is at 1.1375 and 1.1436/66.

GBP/USD is fluctuating around 1.5400. The UK will release employment data at 08:30 GMT, forecasts are quite positive. The main support is at 1.5350 (200-day MA) – as long as the pound stays above this line, the bears won’t be able to return to power. Above this line British currency retains growth potential. If UK data don’t disappoint, the pair will be able to rise to 1.5450 and 1.5520 (100- and 55-day MAs).

USD/JPY continued its descent. The Bank of Japan left monetary policy unchanged. Governor Kuroda sounded rather optimistic on the nation’s economic prospects, though many traders thought that the regulator would at least think about expanding monetary stimulus.

AUD/USD met resistance in the 0.7165 area (trend line resistance). Chinese stocks decline. The minutes of the Reserve Bank’s of Australia meeting offered no surprises. Support is at 0.7050 and 0.9600. Further resistance is at 0.7200.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6437

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound weakened against dollar
16 September 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The British currency showed weakness against the American again during yesterday's trading. The bulls have failed to break through the 1.5460 resistance to the four-hour Ichimoku cloud upper border and, after yet another failed attempt, they decided to leave the market. As a result, the currency pair rate decreased to the cloud's lower border support, into the 1.5320/30 area, by the end of the day. The Tenkan and Kijun lines have cancelled the golden cross action, and the cloud is again expanding downwards, threatening with a bearish trend development. It might make sense to take the sellers' sides after the Tenkan and Kijun lines levels testing.

Technical levels: support – 1.5320; resistance – 1.5390.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.5390; SL — 1.5410; TP1 — 1.5290; TP2 — 1.5230.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6440

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Euro kept inside cloud
16 September 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

As expected, EUR/USD bounced off the cloud's upper border resistance at 1.3440-1.3460 and, as a result, remained within the four-hour Ichimoku cloud. The short-term upward trend is yet maintained since the golden cross is still in action. However, we consider the bulls' inability to break the Tenkan-sen line up as a sign of weakness. Consequently, this will be a good chance for sales with immediate goals up to the lower border levels.

Technical levels: support – 1.1250; resistance – 1.1300.

Trade recommendations:

1. Sell — 1.1300; SL — 1.1320; TP1 — 1.1220; TP2 — 1.1170.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6439

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 16

Open positions:*

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1315, TAKE PROFIT 1.1087, STOP LOSS 1.1402

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5340, TAKE PROFIT 1.5563, STOP AT 1.5280

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7100, TAKE PROFIT 0.7250, STOP AT 0.7030

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3185, TAKE PROFIT 1.3467 (revised), STOP AT 1.3100

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6335, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6485

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP AT 1.0869

EUR/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.4890, TAKE PROFIT 1.5192, STOP LOSS 1.4740

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: BUY at 134.80, TAKE PROFIT 139.17, STOP LOSS 134.05

USD/CHF: BUY at 0.9710, TAKE PROFIT 0.9861, STOP LOSS 0.9660

EUR/GBP: BUY at 0.7340, TAKE PROFIT 0.7525, STOP LOSS 0.7285

GBP/JPY: BUY at 184.45, TAKE PROFIT 187.64, STOP LOSS 182.42

USD/JPY: Possibly BUY

____________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6446

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for September 17

Kira Iukhtenko

Bearish pressure on the US Dollar increased after the US inflation figures confirmed price growth slowdown. As a result, market doubts about a potential rate hike on tomorrow’s meeting declined. Fed’s decision will be announced on September 17 at 18:00 GMT, while the Yellen’s press conference will follow at 18:30 GMT. US currency is expected to stay under pressure ahead of the announcement.

EUR/USD jumped above 1.1300, breaking above the local trend line. The market will be dominated by the Fed’s expectations until tomorrow. Euro zone’s economic calendar is plain. Next barrier for the pair lies at 1.1370.

GBP/USD has also profited the US Dollar weakness, jumping to 1.5450. Pound was also supported by the better-than-expected UK employment data. Watch the UK retail sales tomorrow (forecasts are benign). Cable has more potential for growth tomorrow. Resistance – 1.5560 and 1.5700.

AUD/USD pushed higher, moving towards the 0.7200/0.7250 resistance area. We expect a pullback from here. The Fed will clearly cause a volatility surge, but the RBA Governor Stevens will step in with his speech early on Friday. He is unlikely to let the Aussie strengthen solidly.

There are more releases to watch on Thursday morning- New Zealand GDP, BOJ Kuroda speech and the SNB meeting. Fasten your seatbelts – market is going easy-moved tomorrow!

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6452

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/CHF: sell target - 0.9500
18 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-USD/CHF reversed from resistance level 0.9800
-Next sell target - 0.9500

USD/CHF recently reversed down from the resistance level 0.9800 - which is the lower boundary of the strong resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.9800 and 1.0100. This resistance zone earlier reversed waves (A), B, ② and most recently wave (2), as you can see from the daily USD/CHF chart below). The price is currently falling inside the 3rd intermediate impulse wave (3) – which belongs to the primary downward impulse wave ③ from August.

USD/CHF is likely to fall further toward the next sell target at the support level 0.9500. Sell stop-loss can be placed above aforementioned resistance level 0.9800.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6470

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/CAD: buy target - 0.9550
18 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/CAD broke resistance zone
-Next buy target - 0.9550

AUD/CAD continues to rise after recently breaking above the strong resistance zone lying between the resistance levels 0.9440 and 0.9400. This is the former strong support zone which has been reversing the price numerous times from the middle of April (as you can see from the daily AUD/CAD chart below). After breaking this resistance zone – AUD/CAD corrected down twice to this price area (acting as support now after it was broken).

AUD/CAD is likely to rise further in the active minor corrective wave 2 (which belongs to the intermediate impulse wave (3) from the start of August) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 0.9550.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6468

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US Dollar: forecast for September 21-27

Kira Iukhtenko

Market sentiment towards the US Dollar worsened significantly following the FOMC decision to leave rates unchanged on Thursday. The Fed’s policy statement turned out to be more dovish than expected, referring to the increased global risks and low inflation in the US. As a result, the Fed paved ground for a weaker US Dollar in the coming days and weeks. However, in the longer term we remain bullish for the US currency.

On the new week, we will be watching a bunch of the US data releases. Pay attention to the durable goods orders on Thursday. On Friday we will get the final US Q2 GDP and hear the Fed’s chief Yellen speaking.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6472

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for September 21-27

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar declined versus Japanese yen as the Federal Reserve refrained from raising interest rate and gave a dovish statement to the market. USD/JPY slid to 119.00.

In our view, US dollar will be a subject of the negative pressure in the short and medium term. USD/JPY has been consolidating within a triangle, and the lower border of this pattern will be vulnerable. The pair will have good support in the 118.50 area (55-weak MA), but there is technical space for correction to 116.50/00 (top of the weekly Ichimoku Cloud, uptrend support line since 2012). Resistance is at 121.00 and 121.70.

Another factor that may add to the yen’s strength is the market’s risk aversion. The risk sentiment will turn negative if Chinese data once again disappoint. This is why pay attention to Chinese Caixin flash manufacturing PMI due on Wednesday.

In the longer term, however, dollar’s decline should be limited by the expectations of additional monetary stimulus from the Bank of Japan. Japanese central bank has discarded the idea of further quantitative easing at its September meeting. However, the lack of action from the Fed and the decline in USD/JPY should allow the Bank of Japan to ease policy – a step needed so that Japan could reach 2% inflation target.

Note than the volume of liquidity in Asia on Monday-Wednesday will be lower as Japanese banks will be on holidays. The only important release in Japan will be inflation report on Friday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6475

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for September 21-27

By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD found support at 1.1215 and energetically rebounded to the levels above 1.1400. The weakness of the US dollar as the Federal Reserve has left policy unchanged provides the euro with potential to strengthen to 1.1585 (55-week MA) and 1.1700 (August high). At the same time, the pair ran into the weekly Ichimoku Cloud.

The single currency has to overcome resistance at 1.1467 (May 15 high) so that the bulls could continue pushing it higher. Support levels are at 1.1280, 1.1215, 1.1150 and 1.1100.

Next week for the euro will start with Greek election. The latest opinion polls give no clear winner with Syriza and New Democracy having almost the same support, so there will likely be a coalition government. It is important which party gets more votes, as it will be the one to form a coalition. A coalition led by New Democracy with two smaller parties, which supported the recent bailout, will be the most positive outcome for the euro. The bad scenario will be if Syriza forms coalition government without support of the River and Pasok. In this case, the implementation of bailout will be more complicated. In the worst case, the vote distribution will be so fragmented that 4 parties will have to form coalition or if Syriza will have to turn to anti-bailout parties which want Greece to leave the euro area. All in all, we expect the risks associated with election in Greece to be rather moderate.

Note that the European Central Bank’s president Mario Draghi will speak on Wednesday. It’s clear that the ECB won’t welcome expensive euro, so he may try to talk the European currency down. Also on Wednesday the euro area will release flash manufacturing and services PMI indices. On Thursday the ECB will offer commercial banks cheap loans within its next targeted long-term refinancing operation (TLTRO), though according to the forecasts, bank's demand for iquidity will be low.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6474

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for September 21-27

Kira Iukhtenko

British pound extended the upside on the past week. Inflation slipped back to 0% in August, but the currency got support from the upbeat employment and retail sales figures. The market still expects the Bank of England to hike interest rates at the beginning of the year 2016.

GBP/USD added more than 200 pips over the past week, drawing a second long bullish candle on the weekly chart. The medium-term picture remains positive for the buyers. Break above 1.5700 will open the way to 1.5810 (August high) and 1.5860 (50% Fibo). Key support is now seen at 1.5450 (former resistance).

UK economic calendar for the new week is rather light with the only event on the schedule - Public Sector Net Borrowing on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6473

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis

20 September 2015

Daily. The market keeps moving within corrective (4), which is taking form of a double triple. When this wave is over, the pair’s decline will continue in impulse (5).

H4. Here is the detailed layout of the last section. At the new week we expect the price to rise within another zigzag (y).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6482

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: weekly wave analysis

20 September 2015

Daily. After British pound had completed the complex triple , we saw the beginning of the new downtrend. The pair has formed impulse (1) and correction to it (2). This week we expect the bearish trend to resume.

H4. Zigzag (2) looks complete. That is why the possibility of the downward movement within impulse (3) is high.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6483

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
20 September 2015

Roman Petuchov

Weekly. The price keeps on growing in a long-term bullish impulse. Correction (IV) is now being formed. Growth will continue afterwards. Let's review the markup in details.

H4. Bearish impulse C is the final part of the wave flat (IV). Fourth wave of this impulse will be accomplished this week. It will become a triangle. Decline will continue afterwards.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6484

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 21

Open positions:*

GBP/USD: Hold LONG at 1.5585, TAKE PROFIT 1.5819, STOP LOSS 1.5470

EUR/JPY: Hold LONG at 136.10, TAKE PROFIT 140.03, STOP LOSS 134.98

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7303, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7213

EUR/CHF: Hold LONG at 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.1186, STOP LOSS 1.0869

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7100, TAKE PROFIT 0.7373, STOP LOSS 0.7095

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.45, TAKE PROFIT 191.64, STOP LOSS 184.20

Trade ideas:

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.53, TAKE PROFIT 120.99, STOP LOSS 118.98

EUR/CAD: SELL at 1.4970, TAKE PROFIT 1.4598, STOP LOSS 1.5090

EUR/USD: Possibly SELL

USD/CHF: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly SELL

NZD/USD: Possibly BUY

___________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6490

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 22

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Federal Reserve’s meeting came and went, but investors remain undecided about the global currency picture. On the one hand, the Fed delayed a rate hike. On the other hand, traders look at the other central banks for hints on whether they will ease monetary policy further.

EUR/USD was rejected down by resistance in the 1.1460 area on Friday on comments by ECB Executive Board member Benoit Coeure that monetary policy is on diverging paths in the euro zone and the United States. The expectations of additional easing by the European Central Bank are also hurting the single currency. The euro may remain under pressure until the ECB’s president Mario Draghi speaks on Wednesday. The Fed officials, on the other hand gave some hawkish remarks. EUR/USD slid to 1.1250 on Monday. Support is at 1.1215, 1.1170 and 1.1100. Resistance is at 1.1280, 1.1355 and 1.1460.

As for the Greek parliamentary election result, all in all, it supported the euro. Alexis Tsipras has strengthened his mandate as his leftwing party called Syriza got reelected and will form government together with former allies Independent Greeks. It is now widely expected that Tsipras will have enough power to continue implementing reforms on which he agreed with international creditors and ensure that Greece will get bailout money in full volume. Still, monetary policy will likely be the more important driver of the euro in the coming sessions.

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.1658 on Friday as the Bank of England’s chief economist Andy Haldane said the bank’s next move may be to cut rates, rather than raise them. Now that the Fed has sounded more dovish, traders expect cautiousness from the BoE as well. The pair is supported by 1.5515 (55-day MA) and 1.5425 (August 7 low). Resistance is at 1.5560 and 1.5660. UK will release public sector net borrowing data at 08:30 GMT.

USD/JPY so far managed to stay above 119.00. Japanese banks will remain closed on holidays on Tuesday, so beware of volatile moves. Resistance is 120.80/121.00 and 121.70. Support is at 119.50 and 119.00. The pair is influenced by the demand on the yen as a safe haven on the one hand, and higher US Treasury yields, on the other hand. So trading may remain range bound.

AUD/USD made two unsuccessful attempts to overcome the 55-day MA (0.7260) last week. Comments of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Governor Stevens were bearish on Friday were bearish for Aussie. Support is at 0.7100 and 0.7030. Resistance is at 0.7200, 0.7260 and 0.7340. Aussie will be looking for further direction from the Fed’s officials’ comments and Chinese manufacturing PMI index on Wednesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6495

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7150
22 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP falls inside intermediate (C)-wave
-Next sell target - 0.7150

EUR/GBP recently reversed down strongly - after making a few unsuccessful attempts to break above the resistance level 0.7350 (which is the lower border of the powerful resistance area which has been reversing the price multiple times from March, as you can see from the daily EUR/GBP chart below). The upper boundary of this resistance area stands at 0.7400. The latest downward reversal from 0.7350 started the active impulse wave 3- which belongs to the intermediate (C)-wave from August.

EUR/GBP is likely to fall further in the active waves 3 and (C) toward the next sell target at the 0.7150. Strong resistance remains at 0.7350.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6503

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: sell targets - 1.1100 and 1.1000
22 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/USD reversed from resistance level 1.1400
-Next sell targets - 1.1100 and 1.1000

EUR/USD continues to fall after the recent downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1400 (which is the lower boundary of the strong resistance zone which has been reversing the price from the middle of May, as you can see below). The latest downward reversal from the resistance level 1.1400 created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Dark Cloud Cover – marking the end of the previous intermediate ABC correction (2) from the start of September.

EUR/USD is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell targets at the support levels 1.1100 and 1.1000. Strong resistance remains at 1.1400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6502

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 22

Open positions:*

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9690, TAKE PROFIT 0.9861, STOP LOSS 0.9640

AUD/USD: Hold LONG at 0.7100, TAKE PROFIT 0.7373, STOP LOSS 0.7095

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4970, TAKE PROFIT 1.4598, STOP LOSS 1.5090

GBP/JPY: Hold LONG at 184.45, TAKE PROFIT 191.64, STOP LOSS 184.20

Trade ideas:

EUR/USD: SELL at 1.1229, TAKE PROFIT 1.1087, STOP LOSS 1.1280

USD/JPY: BUY at 119.80, TAKE PROFIT 121.75, STOP LOSS 118.95

EUR/CHF: SELL AT 1.0910, TAKE PROFIT 1.0733, STOP LOSS 1.0965

NZD/USD: SELL AT 0.6350, TAKE PROFIT 0.6130, STOP LOSS 0.6462

EUR/JPY: Possibly BUY

USD/CAD: Possibly BUY

EUR/GBP: Possibly SELL

_____________________________________________________________
*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6501