Market analysis and trade recommendations by FBS

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: weekly wave analysis
7 September 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. Bearish trend [C] is now being developped. Complex corrective wave (4) has been finished recently. We're now declining in a new bearish impulse (5). Price decline in this wave will likely continue in the coming weeks.

H4. Correction [2] could be accomplished on the past week. On the new week we expect the bearish move to the South to be extended.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6336

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis
7 September 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. The price keeps on declining in a final part of an impulse A. Wave (5) of [5] of A is now being formed. Let's see the markup in the details.

H4. On the past week we've seen a new 5-wave construction 5 being formed. It will likely be finished on Monday or on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6339

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: weekly wave analysis
7 September 2015

Roman Petuchov

Daily. The market is now trading in the final part of the long-term bullish trend. Correction (IV) has been accomplished. After that the price growth continued. Let's see the chart in the details.

H4. We are now observing the final part of the wave 2 being formed. At the beginning of the new week we expect the price to jump in an impulse wave 3.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6338

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/USD: weekly wave analysis

Roman Petuchov

Daily. The price keeps on declining in a final part of an impulse A. Wave (5) of [5] of A is now being formed. Let's see the markup in the details.

H4. On the past week we've seen a new 5-wave construction 5 being formed. It will likely be finished on Monday or on Tuesday.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6339

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 8

By Elizabeth Belugina

Early on Tuesday China will release August trade balance data, and we’ll find out whether weaker yuan has managed to improve the nation's exports. There’s no specific time of the release, so beware of increased volatility during the Asian session. Another important release in the morning will be Australian NAB business confidence index due at 01:30 GMT. AUD/USD touched levels below 0.6900 on Monday. Support is at 0.6900, 0.6855 (April 2009 low) and 0.6800. Resistance is at 0.7000, 0.7065 and 0.7100.

US labor market data released on Friday keeps the door open for the Federal Reserve’s rate hike on September 17. Still, there are plenty of risks for American economy and market can only guess what the Fed decides. There are no important releases scheduled on Tuesday in Europe and the Unites States, so traders will continue analyzing monetary policy outlook for the Fed and the ECB. This should keep EUR/USD capped by 1.1270/1300. In the past session, the pair found some support in the 1.1090/1.1120 area. The euro’s ability to stay above this area will depend on figures from China: improvement in data may get the single currency down. Next support is at 1.1015/00.

GBP/USD found support in the 1.5170 zone and recovered towards 1.5280 without distinctive fundamental drivers. Daily сlose above 1.5272 will open the way to 1.5330/55 (200-day MA) area which should provide resistance. On the downside, support lies at 1.5164 (Friday low) and 1.5088 (May lows).

USD/JPY has resistance at 119.60 and 120.70. Below this last level, the pair will stay in short-term downtrend. On the downside, we focus on 118.60 and 118.30. Dynamics in the coming session will depend on the market’s risk sentiment and, consequently, Chinese statistics. In addition, watch the release of Japanese current account data early on Tuesday. The higher the surplus, the more negative it will be for USD/JPY.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6349

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Danske Bank: trade signals for September 8

Open positions*:

EUR/USD: Hold SHORT at 1.1175, TAKE PROFIT 1.1017, STOP LOSS 1.1252

USD/JPY: Hold SHORT at 121.15, TAKE PROFIT 118.26, STOP LOSS 120.80 (revised)

USD/CHF: Hold LONG at 0.9580, TAKE PROFIT 0.9799, STOP LOSS 0.9565

AUD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.7215, TAKE PROFIT 0.6771, STOP LOSS 0.7099

USD/CAD: Hold LONG at 1.3185, TAKE PROFIT 1.3384, STOP LOSS 1.3100

EUR/GBP: Hold LONG at 0.7300, TAKE PROFIT 0.7483, STOP LOSS 0.7240

EUR/CAD: Hold SHORT at 1.4840, TAKE PROFIT 1.4387, STOP LOSS 1.5010

GBP/JPY: Hold SHORT at 183.35, TAKE PROFIT 178.48, STOP LOSS 184.85

NZD/USD: Hold SHORT at 0.6405, TAKE PROFIT 0.6092, STOP LOSS 0.6420

Trade ideas:

EUR/JPY: SELL at 133.55, TAKE PROFIT 131.31, STOP LOSS 134.72

GBP/USD: SELL at 1.5329, TAKE PROFIT 1.5089, STOP LOSS 1.5449

EUR/CHF: BUY at 1.0820, TAKE PROFIT 1.1040, STOP LOSS 1.0709

___________________________________________________________________

*Danske Bank applies trailing stop orders (moved together with the price)

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6355

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 9

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD spiked to 1.1229 on the disappointing Chinese imports data, but then fell to 1.1160. The euro wasn’t impressed by the upward revision of the euro area’s Q2 GDP growth from 0.3% to 0.4%. We stick to the view that the pair should be sold on the upside. The focus is on the support area of 1.1120 and 1.1090 ahead of 1.1015. Resistance is at 1.1265 (200-day MA).

GBP/USD rose to 1.5400 where it found some resistance. Pay attention to the UK manufacturing production and trade balance due at 08:30 GMT. Traders will be looking forwards to the Bank of England’s meeting on Thursday, the expectation will likely be negative. Further resistance is at 1.5425 (August 7 low) and 1.5500 (100-day MA). Support is at 1.5330, 1.5290 and 1.5250.

USD/JPY went up and tested levels above 120.00 as the market’s risk sentiment improved encouraged by gains in European stocks. The key resistance is located in the 120.70 area: the short-term bearish trend will prevail until USD/JPY breaks higher. Support is at 119.60 and 119.00.

AUD/USD corrected up to 0.6980. During the Asian session on Wednesday Australia will release Westpac consumer sentiment index and home loans indicator. In addition, pay attention to the speeches of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s Lowe and Debelle. Resistance is at 0.7100 and 0.7180. Support is at 0.6950 and 0.6900.

USD/CAD slid from 1.3300 to 1.3200. The results of the Bank of Canada’s meeting will be announced at 14:00 GMT. The recent data from Canada were rather well. Still, the Bank of Canada may express concerns about the low oil prices. Buying on the dips to 0.7170/30 seems like a good idea, though there’s a bunch of resistance levels in the 1.3300/30 area.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6364

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Pound trading within cloud
9 September 2015

Tatiana Norkina, FBS analyst

The GBP/USD currency pair rate has recovered significantly within the last two trading sessions. The pair found support in the 52nd figure area and then began to recover rapidly within the correctional movement. The short-term bullish sentiment of the market participants was supported by the Tenkan and Kijun lines yesterday that had formed a golden cross. It was immediately followed by a break through the four-hour Ichimoku cloud lower border resistance, which bounds us to speak about the pair's further consolidation within a fairly wide price range of 1.5300-1.5500. It obviously makes sense to wait for the prices to pull back to the Tenkan and Kijun lines in the near future and to be on the bulls' side up until the Ichimoku cloud upper border.

Technical levels: support – 1.5300; resistance1 – 1.5480.

Trade recommendations:

1. Buy — 1.5300; SL — 1.5280; TP1 — 1.5400; TP2 — 1.5480.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6366

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/NZD: sell target - 1.7300
9 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/NZD reached buy target 1.7750
-Next sell target - 1.7300

EUR/NZD recently reversed down sharply after the price reached the resistance level 1.7750, which was set as the buy target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. After initially reversing down from this resistance level the pair made two unsuccessful attempts to break above 1.7750 – forming two consecutive Japanese candlestick reversal patterns Bearish Engulfing (as you can see below).

EUR/NZD is likely to fall further inside the active minor impulse wave 3 toward the next support level 1.7300 (which reversed the price with the daily Morning Star at the end of August).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6371

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/GBP: sell target - 0.7200
9 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/GBP falls inside intermediate impulse wave (3)
-Next sell target - 0.7200

EUR/GBP continues to fall after the price earlier reversed down strongly from the resistance zone lying between the resistance level 0.7400 (which stopped the previous primary ABC correction ②), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous downward impulse wave from last October. The downward reversal from this resistance zone completed the latest intermediate correction (2).

EUR/GBP is likely to fall further in the active impulse wave (3) toward the next sell target at the support level 0.7200 (former resistance level which reversed the previous wave (4) in July). Strong resistance remains at 0.7400.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6370

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Forex trading plan for September 10

By Elizaveta Belugina

EUR/USD slid to 1.1130. Support is at 1.1125 and 1.1090. Decline below these levels will confirm a temporary top and open the way for a fall to 1.1015/00. Early on Thursday the pair’s dynamics will depend on the market’s risk sentiment as China will release inflation figures. US will publish unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT. Trading is expected to be volatile. The upside for the euro will likely be limited.

GBP/USD met resistance at 1.5400. The bears are trying to pull the pound below the 200-day MA at 1.5353. Britain released a bunch of dismal economic data on Wednesday: manufacturing production contracted in August, while trade deficit widened. On Thursday, traders will be focused on the Bank of England’s meeting and minutes at 11:00 GMT. Markets will be expecting dovish comments from British central bank. Such expectations will be negative for GBP/USD.

USD/JPY is testing resistance in the 121.00 area. The pair rose above September 3 high of 120.70 that is a bullish development. Above 121.00 the next resistance will be at 121.70 and 122.00. Support is at 120.20 and 119.60.

AUD/USD keeps correcting to the upside. Positive comments from RBA Deputy Governor Lowe overshadowed decline in consumer sentiment. Above 0.7070 Aussie may be able to rise to 0.7180/0.7200. Support is at 0.7015 and 0.6980. Traders await Chinese inflation & Australian employment data due at 01:30 GMT on Thursday.

NZD/USD rose above 0.6400. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to cut the benchmark rate from 3% to 2.75%. Such action of the central bank is already priced in NZD/USD, so for a considerable decline of the pair something really negative should happen. Resistance is at 0.6500 and 0.6580. Support is at 0.6315/00.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6375

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

AUD/NZD: buy target - 1.1250
10 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-AUD/NZD reversed from pivotal support level 1.0940
-Next buy target - 1.1250

AUD/NZD recently reversed up sharply from the pivotal support level 1.0940 (which reversed earlier waves A, (b) and (i), as you can see from the daily AUD/NZD chart below). The support zone near this support level was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band and by the 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous sharp upward impulse wave from April.

The pair is likely to rise further in the active minor corrective wave (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1250 (which reversed the price at the end of August). Strong support remains at 1.0940.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6383

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

Trading plan for September 11

Kira Iukhtenko

US Dollar remains under slight bearish pressure as investors doubt the Fed will dare to hike interest rates in September. USD index slipped below 96 points. On Friday we’ll be watching the US PPI and consumer sentiment index - both forecasts are downbeat, so selling pressure on USD could persist till the end of the week.

EUR/USD jumped far above 1.1200 on Thursday following the last week’s dip to 1.1080. Next resistance is seen at 1.1330. On Friday we’ll watch the final German CPI. EU finance ministers are scheduled to meet in Brussels to discuss the most urgent issues in the regional economy.

Meanwhile, GBP/USD surged above 1.5450, supported by a slightly more hawkish Bank of England. Monetary authorities resumed talks about a potential rate hike in the near term and don’t see the crisis in China as a serious obstacle. On Friday the BOE member Forbes is scheduled to speak.

Reserve Bank of New Zealand shocked the market on Thursday, cutting its benchmark rate down to 2.75%. NZD/USD lost about 150 points on the news, but found some support around 0.6270. Resistance is seen at 0.6300 and 0.6400. As for AUD/USD, a fix above 0.7050 will pave the ground for a correction to 0.7200/50.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6389

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CAD: buy target - 1.5200
11 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CAD rises inside intermediate correction (2)
-Next buy target - 1.5200

EUR/CAD recently reversed down sharply – after the pair reached the buy target 1.5400, set in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The subsequent downward impulse wave (1) stopped in the support zone lying between the support level 1.4650 and the 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous upward impulse from the end of June (as can be seen from the daily EUR/CAD chart below).

The pair is likely to rise further in the active intermediate corrective wave (2) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5200 (target price calculated for the completion of this correction).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6394

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/CHF: buy target - 1.1100
11 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-EUR/CHF reached buy target 1.0950
-Next buy target - 1.1100

EUR/CHF recently broke above the resistance level 1.0950, which was set in our previous report as the buy target for this currency pair. The breakout of this resistance level continues the active minor impulse wave 5, which started earlier in August – when the pair reversed up strongly from the support zone lying between the support level 1.0740, 38.2% Fibonacci Correction of the previous impulse from June and the upper channel line of the daily up channel from April.

EUR/CHF is likely to rise further in the active impulse waves 5 and (3) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.1100 (target for the termination of wave (3)).

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6393

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

USD/JPY: forecast for September 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

Japanese yen has weakened versus the US currency in the past week because of the expectations of the Bank of Japan’s additional monetary policy easing. These expectations revived as the adviser to Japanese premier Shinzo Abe said that the central bank’s October meeting presents a “good opportunity” for further quantitative easing (QE). Such comments hit the markers, which were worried because of the recent weak Japan’s economic figures and the volatility in stocks.

For now, the Bank of Japan’s Governor Kuroda stubbornly sticks to the positive view on Japan’s economic prospects underlining that the regulator’s policy is loose enough. Next week we will hear from Kuroda on Tuesday at the Bank of Japan’s press conference and on Thursday when he is due to make a speech. Still, as the comments of Japanese central bank come before the meeting of the US Federal Reserve, we do not think that the position of Japanese regulator may seriously change. So, we believe that the Bank of Japan’s Tuesday meeting will not seriously affect the market.

Note that during the most part of the upcoming trading week players will be in the situation of the uncertainty trying to foresee whether the Fed announces a rate hike on Thursday or not. Another source of uncertainty is China, which will publish industrial production data on Sunday, September 13. This uncertainty will limit USD/JPY on the upside.

USD/JPY may consolidate in the 120.70/119.00 area ahead of the Fed. On the upside, further resistance lies at 121.70, 122.00 and 122.50. On the downside, further support is at 118.30/00 and in the 116.00 zone.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6398

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

EUR/USD: forecast for September 14-20


By Elizabeth Belugina

EUR/USD got support from the 100-day MA in the 1.11 zone and managed to creep up to the 1.13 area.

In the medium term, the euro area’s fundamentals look weak, and the European Central Bank’s focus on policy easing will keep the euro under pressure. In the short-term, however, one should be cautious with the euro shorts. Even if the US Federal Reserve rates rate in September, euro may hold its ground after the initial decline as the market’s risk sentiment will likely deteriorate supporting demand for the euro as a refuge currency.

Next week the focus will surely be on American economic releases. In the euro area, pay attention to German ZEW economic sentiment on Tuesday and the region’s current account data on Thursday. On Sunday, September 20, there will be parliamentary election in Greece. According to the latest polls, no political party is able to gain majority, so Greece will likely face the coalition government, which may be rather difficult to form. The event may create moderate negative risks for the euro.

Overall, we prepare for a volatile trading week. The main levels to watch on the downside are 1.1100, 1.1015 and 1.0950. On the upside, resistance is at 1.1330 and 1.1436/66.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6400

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: forecast for September 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

The Bank of England left monetary policy unchanged. Only one member of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted to raise the benchmark interest rate. One of the main things was that the central bank played down the impact of China’s stock-market slump on Britain’s economic prospects. In addition, some members saw continued upside risks to the inflation outlook. Overall, the Bank of England was not as dovish as expected allowing the cable to rise to 1.5475. The market expects the central bank to raise rates in the beginning of 2016.

At the same time, the series of weak UK economic data releases cast doubt over the BOE’s outlook on the interest rates and may limit the sterling’s advance together with uncertainty ahead of the US Federal Reserve’s meeting on Thursday.

GBP/USD is facing the bearish Ichimoku Cloud on the weekly chart. The pair approached significant resistance area of 1.5515/35 (100- and 55-day MAs). However, sterling has managed to settle above the 200-day MA at 1.5350 and a move below this support is needed to return the full power to the bears. Further support is at 1.5250.

Next week the UK will release inflation figures on Tuesday, labor market data on Wednesday and retail sales on Thursday. In addition, on Saturday, September 12, the new leader of Britain's main opposition Labour Party will be announced. The leader will likely be from the party’s left wing, which opposes austerity measures, so this may lead to some bearish pressure on sterling.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6399

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

US dollar: forecast for September 14-20

By Elizabeth Belugina

US dollar index showed modest declines in the past week. The greenback declined versus the euro, British pound and Australian dollar, but strengthened against Japanese yen.

The highlight of the next week will surely be the meeting of Federal Reserve on Thursday, September 17.

Analysts have high opinion of the US labor market data. Good state of the labor data is the necessary condition for the Fed's rate hike. Although in August jobs gains were lower than expected, the jobless rate dropped to 5.1% level, where the Fed considers the economy to be at “full employment.” For now, the market is pricing in about 30-50% possibility of September rate hike.

If US central bank chooses to tighten policy, it will accompany such action with dovish comments in order to smooth negative impact on stocks. Still, the initial reaction to a rate hike will be certainly very positive for the greenback making it strengthen versus all of its competitors.

However, the volatile performance of Chinese stocks and the risks connected with that will make it hard for the Fed’s (FOMC) members to reach an agreement on a rate hike. Those who think that the Fed will wait with raising rates argue that the central bank has not raised rates when the CBOE Volatility Index was as high as it is now. At the same time, the Fed does not officially target stocks and does not have mandate to support the stock market. Moreover, the delay in hikes will provoke further uncertainty that can hurt stocks in the medium term even more. If the Fed does not raise rates, US dollar will weaken, but we do not think that it will be a start of a downtrend, especially against commodity currencies.

There are still some figures to look at ahead of the Fed’s decision. Pay attention to American retail sales on Tuesday and inflation figures on Wednesday.

Overall, we expect the market’s nervousness increase by Thursday. The Fed’s announcement will provoke volatile moves, so be careful with open positions ahead of the event.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6397

 

[riki143]

Forex Analytics

GBP/USD: buy target - 1.5500
15 September 2015

By: Dmitriy Chernovolov

-GBP/USD rises inside minor wave (ii)
-Next buy target - 1.5500

GBP/USD recently reversed up sharply after reaching the support level 1.5200, which was set as the sell target in our previous forecast for this currency pair. The support zone near 1.5200 was strengthened by the lower daily Bollinger Band, 50% Fibonacci Correction of the previous (B)-wave from April and the lower support trendline of the daily down channel from June. The upward reversal from this support zone created the daily Japanese candlesticks reversal pattern Bullish Engulfing.

GBP/USD is likely to rise further in the active minor correction (ii) toward the next buy target at the resistance level 1.5500.

More:
http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/6428